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The Fall

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149 Comments

Well, It’s back to school and back to work time.. unless you can cash in a Vancouver property lotto ticket and retire.

Looks like a lot of people have decided its time to try to cash out, yesterday saw a big listing day, Paulb says 356 new listings with only 103 sales.

Inventory posted numbers by area and a lot of places, including west van, burnaby, Vancouver West and white rock saw a sales to list ratio of 25% or lower.

Is this the start of a slow sales autumn or just a post holiday blip? Is it the right time to try to sell, or should you be buying investment properties in hopes of future gains?

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patriotz

@rksleung:

I will add just one more comment – the properties in SF you pointed out are not in any way comparable to Dunbar or Point Grey, but to The Crescent or Angus Drive. Smaller lots because SF was already a well-established big city when Vancouver was little more than a small town. Old money neighbourhoods for over a century.

They are not comparable to the West Side of San Francisco either. You want something to compare to Dunbar, look at my previous post:

http://vancouvercondo.info/2011/07/the-running-ou…

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Anonymous

"I just said there would be areas that would withstand the crash better." There will be regions in Canada that withstand the housing crash better. Greater Vancouver won't be one of them. History has shown us that. "Your opinions aside, I just brought out a couple of examples in the SF area that still appreciated 400% from 1990 amidst the worst US real estate crash. I hate to say it again. “The rich would get richer”." The problem is there are very few "rich" in Vancouver. I bet 8 out of 10 households in Dunbar don't break a 100K per year income. Most bought their houses long ago. Unless the houses are handed down from generation to generation that can't continue. "Mark this post. In 10 years, you would see the real estate market in Vancouver crashed BUT a typical… Read more »

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Come on

@rksleung:

The US housing crash is in the middle of the crash, not the end. Still lots of down side left. Those SF properties will be worth much less in the future. Remember things are getting worse in the US not better, and we still have not seen the inevitable interest rate increase.

Your Dunbar house will be hit just as hard as a house in Surrey or Abbotsford percentage wise. Plan on at least 60% off. You are correct that even at 60% off Dunbar will still be expensive and unaffordable for most people. Either way it is a poor investment no matter what happens. You only need to look at rent vs ownership costs to figure that out.

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Inventory

Sept 6 to 8, 2011 Richmond New Listings 131 Price Changes 36 Solds 40 Vancouver West New Listings 240 Price Changes 60 Solds 61 Vancouver East New Listings 96 Price Changes 39 Solds 38 North Vancouver New Listings 79 Price Changes 20 Solds 23 Burnaby New Listings 116 Price Changes 38 Solds 41 Coquitlam New Listings 59 Price Changes 24 Solds 18 West Vancouver New Listings 39 Price Changes 16 Solds 9 Ladner New Listings 11 Price Changes 10 Solds 1 Port Coquitlam New Listings 26 Price Changes 12 Solds 10 Maple Ridge New Listings 42 Price Changes 44 Solds 18 New Westminster New Listings 42 Price Changes 12 Solds 13 Pitt Meadows New Listings 11 Price Changes 2 Solds 8 Port Moody New Listings 25 Price Changes 13 Solds 7 Squamish New Listings 15 Price Changes 4 Solds 4… Read more »

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Inventory

Sept 8, 2011

Richmond

New Listings 36

Price Changes 14

Solds 12

Vancouver West

New Listings 76

Price Changes 15

Solds 15

Vancouver East

New Listings 27

Price Changes 12

Solds 16

North Vancouver

New Listings 15

Price Changes 5

Solds 10

Burnaby

New Listings 36

Price Changes 9

Solds 16

Coquitlam

New Listings 22

Price Changes 12

Solds 5

West Vancouver

New Listings 3

Price Changes 1

Solds 3

Ladner

New Listings 2

Price Changes 4

Solds 0

Port Coquitlam

New Listings 6

Price Changes 7

Solds 2

South Surrey White Rock

New Listings 22

Price Changes 11

Solds 14

Court ordered Sale (R E B G V / F V R E B

Detached 123

Attached 182

Land 22

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Devore

@rksleung:

Mark this post. In 10 years, you would see the real estate market in Vancouver crashed BUT a typical folks here would still not be able to afford any West-side house.

Ok, and? Expensive is expensive. Aston Martins could drop in price by 30%, and they'd still be unaffordable to 99.99% of the population, but they're still down 30%.

What point are you trying to make by pointing out there exist expensive houses in SF? There were, and still are, multi-million dollar houses in Florida, Nevada, California, Hawaii, etc.

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rksleung

@JR

I didn't say it would not correct. I just said there would be areas that would withstand the crash better.

Your opinions aside, I just brought out a couple of examples in the SF area that still appreciated 400% from 1990 amidst the worst US real estate crash. I hate to say it again. "The rich would get richer".

Mark this post. In 10 years, you would see the real estate market in Vancouver crashed BUT a typical folks here would still not be able to afford any West-side house.

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JR

@rksleung: Take it from a Westsider born and bred here since 1950 and a three time owner. There is no such thing as an area of any city anywhere in this continent so far as I have researched that escapes corrections or crashes. I can tell you from more than one personal experience that the Westside of Vancouver has corrected or crashed as much or more than any other part of the LM in all previous episodes as it will again in the next (imminent) episode. I think ground zero is Dunbar, as a matter of fact.

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rksleung

@Patriot I brought out several SF recent transactions as my argument that not all properties are the same. That goes back to my premise that there are areas that withstand any real estate dumpster better than others. There are those in this blog who kept saying that Vancouver will follow the US's footstep in terms of the housing market. They said "Today's Florida market is tomorrow's Vancouver market." The fact of the matter is a comparative house in Vancouver rose from 1-1.2M to 2.3-2.5M (dunbar area) from 1990 to 2011 while the property listed rose from 1M to 4.5M speaks the truth. The property I listed did not undergo any renovation. This is plain appreciation of 450% from 1991 to 2011 in the middle of the worst housing crash ever recorded in the US hisotry. You speak the truth with… Read more »

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ReadyToPop

VV I see the story was posted already. Hats off to the sharp eyed bunch around here

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ReadyToPop

“As we go forward in an environment of lower rates for longer now, we may see another round of mortgage rule tightening,” said Craig Wright, chief economist at RBC Financial Group during a panel discussion on Canada’s economy at the Economic Club of Canada.

 Low rates could spur mortgage rule changes

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fixie guy

87 patriotz Says: "I don’t believe that immigration has been responsible for excessive house price growth in the past nor can it support excessive prices going forward."

You've yet to explain how prices ignore that new demand, or what would happen to real estate prices if all those accented voices left Canada. I'll bet it's 'collapse'.

"So what do all the cities have in common?"

Many things, your question assumes bubbles have singular causes. I maintain consistently immigration-driven demand is only one component along with rates, terms, government backing of MBSs, and more.

You think it's a coincidence that as the global economy continues to slide and Canada's falters, the Three Stooges start yapping about the dire need to wick up immigration quotas? Connect the dots.

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paulb

New Listings 277

Price Changes 134

Sold Listings 103

TI:16254

If you like the stats updates please “like” our Facebook page http://tinyurl.com/paulandlauren

Website http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

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Anonymous

Vancouver All Areas*

New Listings – 274

Back On Market Listings – 5

Price Changes – 132

Sold Listings – 100

*Attached & Detached – Date: 09/08/2011 Time: 17:55 Pacific YatterMatters.com: Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed

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specialfx3000

The bearish trend continues….

Vancouver East & West*

New Listings – 102

Back On Market Listings – 0

Price Changes – 27

Sold Listings – 31

Vancouver All Areas*

New Listings – 274

Back On Market Listings – 5

Price Changes – 132

Sold Listings – 100

*Attached & Detached – Date: 09/08/2011 Time: 17:55 Pacific YatterMatters.com: Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed

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Bubba

Can we re- focus on Libyan and Afghani real estate ?

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Frank

@Anonymouse:

Sure there are lot of people making big dough. Some high earning lawyers, specialists and the usual CEOs who think they own the company and the penny stock jocks.

However our taxes are much higher (for those that pay them) and don't allow tax deductible mortgages and as people have pointed out SF is full of head offices and big pharma companies.

So unless you are a HAM who hasn't paid tax on your huge wad of cash which you made who-knows how- VANCOUVER IS VERY EXPENSIVE!!

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real_professional

Sorry this link might work better: https://bitly.com/Will_Obama_be_Re-Elected

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real_professional

Interesting speech by Obama today on jobs growth – Very cool chart,

bitly.com/Will_Obama_be_Re-Elected

I don't think he can stimulate the economy, I don't understand how Vancouver Real Estate is still standing.

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Anonymouse

@Frank:

"However there are a lot of people who made easy money in San francisco from the dotcom companies to the many large financial companies and income taxes are lower and mortgages are tax-deductable."

It's different there?

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Li Kai Shing

Much crankypants and bad feng shui on this blog.

Concubine # 179 : peel me another grape

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patriotz

@rksleung: How come the above house in San Francisco would still fetch 4.5M after the worst housing dumpster in the U.S? Because, as I have said before, average house prices in the US are still well above historical averages, which means that some areas must still be way above historical averages. You might get the impression from all the bad news you've been getting from south of the border that housing is now historically cheap from coast to coast. With the exceptions of the real disaster areas, it's not, by a long shot. You don't have to look at the most expensive districts of SF, either. Seattle is still pricey by historical norms. Almost all major markets are still more expensive than at any time prior to 2001. It also helps that the rich are still getting richer (while everyone… Read more »

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AG Sage

rksleung (Paulo is that you?)

When Vancouver has even 1/10th the number of large corporations based there as San Fran does, let us know. http://www.december.com/places/sfo/notable.html

You might as well compare Van to Rarotonga real estate.

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jesse

@rksleung: "Care to explain"

Wrong city, man. Quit polluting this blog with remodels from another city.

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Frank

@rksleung:

"You bears still think Vancouver is expensive. Care to explain how this house is worth 5.25M?????"

It isn't. However there are a lot of people who made easy money in San francisco from the dotcom companies to the many large financial companies and income taxes are lower and mortgages are tax-deductable.

All we have is HAM! For the rest of us who pay taxes here and get paid local wages and are not on the take- it is expensive.

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