Zero west side new home sales

It hasn’t happened yet, but it’s possible that this could turn out to be the first month on record to ever have zero new home sales on the Vancouver west side. Check out the comment from inventory:

Worst New Home sales in September in Vancouver West?

Where are the buyers? Currently there are NO sales of “NEW” HST Homes. there are 71 units available. Five more days to go for a sale. There has never been a ZERO New home sale in Van West since 1994 (Records only go back to 1994).

Vancouver West
New home sales
Sept 2010 / 2011
Listed 61 / 71
Sales 9 / 0 ***As of Sept 25, 2011

Van West Sept new home sales:
2008 = 4
2009 = 11

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Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Zero sum game, I guess. Time's up!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Why would anyone buy now when they can wait for the HST to go away soon? This is the reverse when there was a rush to buy before the HST was implemented and the REALTORS ™ was telling people to buy.

Keeping An Eye On Th
Guest
Keeping An Eye On Th

Let's not get too excited. There is a plausible explanation for the slowdown.

World Class Homebuyers/Investors, from Singapore, Tokyo, Beijing , Mumbai and Monaco, had a" hold" on Vancouver Real Estate pending analysis of Christy Clark's strategy by Michael Levy.

Keeping An Eye On Th
Guest
Keeping An Eye On Th

@Anonymous:

Why would anyone buy now when they can wait for the HST to go away soon? This is the reverse when there was a rush to buy before the HST was implemented and the REALTORS ™ was telling people to buy."

Oh go on, World class tycoons, committed to buying a piece to the best place on earth, of which no more is being made, and which will escalate in price in perpetuity, are going to get spooked away by a pesky little thing like the HST?

Give me a break, some of those billionaires blow that kind of money on a "date" for the night.

patriotz
Member

@Anonymous:

"Why would anyone buy now when they can wait for the HST to go away soon?"

Builders have to absorb the HST because the buyers determine what they are willing and able to pay and they have the option of buying resale houses not subject to HST.

Not surprising that buyers can't figure this out though, since nobody with any sense would be buying now in the first place.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

"… pending analysis of Christy Clark’s strategy by Michael Levy."

I thought they were all ears for Michael Campbell because of his penetrating, in-depth and accurate foresight?

jesse
Member

Took a look on MLS recently. Holy crap, a Van East off-Kingsway 10 year old irregular 3 suiter asking $1.1mm.

Anecdote: the only reason it didn't sell was because the lot was irregular. Take my word there are still "bargain hunters" actively looking to give away their life savings.

vreaa
Member

Perhaps ‘HST uncertainty’ will be the factor blamed for the end of the mania.

(No factor is needed, but something is usually blamed).

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

"Why would anyone buy now when they can wait for the HST to go away soon?"

Why would anybody pay $300K over asking for a 1.5 million dollar tare down not even worth half that? People were doing it.

It looks like the market has changed. Probably little to do with the HST.

painted turtle
Guest
painted turtle

A friend (who has a house) told me that in 20 years time Vancouver will be populated by HAM, and that the only Caucasians left will be serving them.

Does he picture himself living in such a community, being Caucasian himself? Does he intend to sell for 10 million dollars and leave?

I thought I did not agree with that vision of the future, until I went to Telus World of Science and noticed bilingual exhibition panels: English/Chinese. Not other language. I will sent them a letter expressing my frustration as a non-Chinese ESL immigrant, since they made my kids feel like secondary citizens.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Watching all the doom and gloom on TV about the collapsing world economy, why would anyone want to take the plunge and buy a new house?

Seems like world leaders just ran out of tricks to make everybody believe everything is okay.

Homeowners probably want to stay put and hope for the best.

Renters probably want to keep renting and watch the market.

Speculators… sorry I have no advice. They made their bed pretty nice and comfy already.

Ted
Guest
Ted

I will sent them a letter expressing my frustration as a non-Chinese ESL immigrant, since they made my kids feel like secondary citizens.

Vancouver provides no end of amazing examples of this behavior – if you're not Chinese try walking into Richmond Acura and see if you get any help! While all the asian sales people run for cover you can wait until the one white sales guy is free and you can then deal with him. As a Caucasian the experience provides a glimpse of what minorities have to deal with I guess…

VMD
Guest
VMD

[Burnaby, Coquitlam, Richmond SFH now have > 1year Months-of-Inventory]

Burnaby: 6.1 -> 13.3

Coquitlam: 6.6 -> 12.7

Richmond: 11.5 -> 15.1

I guess instead of busy buying properties after the “traditionally slow” summer season, people are busy selling.

*Stats calculated from Larry’s numbers
http://www.yattermatters.com/2011/09/burnaby-home

painted turtle
Guest
painted turtle
@TED "As a Caucasian the experience provides a glimpse of what minorities have to deal with I guess…" Sorry, but I disgree with you. First, it has nothing to do with race, only with language. You can be white Caucasian and not understand any of the two official languages of Canada. Second, I do belong to a minority, being an ESL immigrant. When I first came to Canada, I learned ENGLISH, period. I never expected this province to function in my language. And, most of all, the only way I can mix, work, and share with other citizens, is by speaking English. I have heard very strong talk from Chinese immigrants who made the effort the learn English against places like the one you describe. At some point some people need to stop feeling sorry for "minorities." Immigrating to Canada… Read more »
b5baxter
Member

@painted turtle: "…is a move that includes learning the local language."

I agree. I am shocked that so few immigrants can't speak at least one Coast Salish language.

patriotz
Member

@b5baxter:

First Nations have the right to ask of those who wish to join their communities to speak their ancestral language. They don't ask this of anyone else.

Immigrants to Canada (outside of people like Grey Owl) are not seeking to join aboriginal communities but Canada at large and we have the right to ask them to use one of our official languages.

jesse
Member
@painted turtle: "most countries in this world expect immigants to be able to function in the local language." I'll put it another way, to be relatively successful in Canada you need to learn the local language. If you don't, and happen to be wealthy already, you won't give a fig and will be "successful" by fogging a mirror. If you don't, and happen to be middle class, your lifetime earning power will be much less on balance. Studies have shown this, which is why the provincial government offers English language lessons for new immigrants, who are for the most part looking to make a decent living. Language gaps only become obvious after 10-15 years and seeing one's peers who read/write/speak good English become more successful. In Vancouver this is a bit perverse because it's easy to fall into ethnic enclaves… Read more »
VMD
Guest
VMD
Just spoke with a realtor (who is selling my family member's house in Calgary). Things are not moving (including my family member's house) in the last 1-2 months. He said in his 20 years as RE agent, he's never seen such a poor situation: people are having harder time getting approved for mortgages; because their own house can't sell, they can't move up into another house; people are tapped out because of debt; people are afraid of the poor economic outlook. The realtor sees Calgary's RE decline for the next couple years. He said several times "never trust what the media has to say about RE". He's either one of the "good ones", or is trying to push for another price reduction for a quicker sale. Either way, things are not looking good for Calgary RE. Oh, he also says… Read more »
jesse
Member

@VMD: "nowadays 60-65% of people are buying properties with 5% down."

I've heard these anecdotes all over the map. Some mortgage brokers I talk to claim most of their clients are well into low-ratio territory. Unfortunately I don't know of any publicly-available data set that contains data on mortgage originations, like amount, income, DSRs, LTV, credit rating, geographic region, etc.

I hope the government has these aggregated data; otherwise… oh my.

Oilman
Guest
Oilman

I think you don't have to read into it too much. When Mark Carney has been actively warning people to get debt levels in check, he's seeing things that are very worrisome. However, I think he wants to maintain whatever confidence is left and not create downright panic in the markets, and slowly hope people get the message and get their own debt situations under control.

VanRant
Guest
VanRant

@Oilman: Only way Carney can make people listen (if he is serious) is to hike interest rate back to the normal level.

jesse
Member

After 3 of 4 weeks completed:

September 2011 data

Average Sales 109

Total Sales 1749

Average Listings 280

Total Listings 4487

Average sell/list 39%

Days in month 21

Days elapsed 16

% days elapsed 76%

Expected sales 2,296

Expected listings 5,889

Max daily sales 141

Min daily sales 83

Max daily listings 356

Min daily listings 216

September 2010 data at same point in month

Average Sales 105

Total Sales 1681

Average Listings 232

Total Listings 3719

Average sell/list 45%

Days in month 21

Days elapsed 16

% days elapsed 76%

Expected sales 2,206

Expected listings 4,881

Max daily sales 161

Min daily sales 63

Max daily listings 282

Min daily listings 164

September 2010 month end data

Average Sales 106

Total Sales 2226

Average Listings 226

Total Listings 4737

Average sell/list 48%

Days in month 21

Days elapsed 21

% days elapsed 100%

Expected sales 2,226

Expected listings 4,737

Max daily sales 179

Min daily sales 63

Max daily listings 282

Min daily listings 164

Previous sales volume

1999 1852

2000 1707

2001 2155

2002 2476

2003 3357

2004 2853

2005 3344

2006 2519

2007 2776

2008 1585

2009 3600

2010 2220

jesse
Member

@VanRant: "Only way Carney can make people listen (if he is serious) is to hike interest rate back to the normal level."

He can strongarm the malleable Flaherty & co. to curtail bank lending via OSFI reserve adjustments. He has been advocating as much on the world stage, so why not lead by example?

onenangryslav2
Guest
onenangryslav2

@VanRant: No, he can't do that as it would cause massive economic pain. As we've talked about ad nauseum here at VCI, the GoC could stop rising mortgage indebtedness with one simple policy change: lower the maximum amortization period on ALL CMHC-insured household mortgage debt to 25 years and require a 20% down payment.

jesse
Member

@onenangryslav2: "lower the maximum amortization period on ALL CMHC-insured household mortgage debt to 25 years and require a 20% down payment."

I've been stating this for a while, it needs to go deeper than this. Fact is the government has provided banks close to risk-free lending environment via mortgage insurance through CMHC and private insurers. To mitigate further damage the gov't needs to lay the hammer down on all mortgages, not just the high ratio ones — today's low ratio is tomorrow's high ratio.

Cutting off the banks by imposing a drastic change at CMHC would be destabilizing for Canada's banking industry, and Carney has already said stability will be maintained at all costs. You may think removing the moral hazard is the right thing to do or whatever but it is unlikely it will go down like that.

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