Friday Free-for-all!

It’s Friday and that means it’s time for the weekly news round up and open topic discussion thread! Here are a few recent stories to kick off the chat:

Canada’s hidden housing bubble
No longer the best place on earth?
Ain’t gonna be no US style housing crash
‘Cause their ain’t no housing bubble
The sagging lease-hold market
Victoria prices will keep on rising
Canadian real estate chart book
Record low interest rates don’t matter
Chinese property boom getting wobbly
Developers in China slash housing prices
Rebalancing Chinese economy almost ‘impossible math’

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Alum
Guest
Alum

first at 1:37 am

Don't bet on a housing crash here in Vancouver.

If there is crash, you probably have lost your job first !

patriotz
Member

@Alum:

Speak for yourself.

The 80's RE crash was the best thing that could have happened for my sector and another RE crash is the best thing that could happen for my sector going forward.

Talk to a recruiter some time.

registered
Member
registered

1 Alum Says: "If there is crash, you probably have lost your job first !"

The crash won't care if you're employed.

vreaa
Member

Vancouver Professors Cross Threshold – "After this fiasco we are completely done. I phoned U.Alberta today and told them that we will take the jobs if they offer them to us. In our view this city is being rapidly ruined."

http://wp.me/pcq1o-32I

A must read.

The loss to Vancouver of two bright professionals, and their family.

One example of the misallocation of human capital caused by the speculative mania in housing. It is crippling our city.

Only the most blasé RE bull will be able to read stories like this without feeling concern for the health of our community.

– vreaa

jesse
Member

@Alum: Some people's salaries aren't tied to local economic conditions. Don't get mad, provision for events beyond your control. Like, say, not buying a $1.1 MM house with large mortgage based on the last 8 years of stated income from real estate.

chip
Guest
chip

Big jobs number today with 60,900 net positions added last month.

But as usual read further and here is the breakdown:

"The public-sector accounted for a gain of 36,900 workers, while there were 14,900 fewer in the private sector and 38,900 more people were self-employed."

And people tend to become self-employed in a stagnant jobs market. Many if not most of those businesses will fail.

specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000

@vreaa:

VREAA, I read the story on your site and I question why these two bright professionals would even put in a 1.5M bid for that POS.

If their offer was accepted, they are no different from the other fools that are propping up this market.

Consider themselves lucky that their offer was rejected.

They should continue teaching at UBC and rent a nicer place than that POS or just move to Alberta. We don't need any more of these lemmings outbidding each other for overpriced houses.

victoria
Member
victoria

When I told me RE agent what the President of the Real Estate Board said he rolled his eyes and said – why do they keep saying things like that. My agent is very well known and has been in the business 20 years.

It makes RE agents look like used car salesman.

BTW I am a homeowner and would love RE to go up so I could sell my money pit of a house and get the hell out of here.

pipewrench
Member
pipewrench

http://www.amlinkint.com/English/china_economy/ar

Assuming the average house has an area of 100 square meters, the "house price" to "household income" ratio was 23:1, far exceeding a healthy range between 3:1 and 6:1. With this staggering ratio in place, the fundamental reason for extreme weaknesses in the housing market is obvious.

what a joke. Building cities no one can afford on foundation anchored to quicksand.

pipewrench
Member
pipewrench

@pipewrench:

and to compare to today,

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/07/us-econ

even when Reuters puts lipstick and high-heals on a pig it still is a pig. There is no way that China is going to get out of this.

chip
Guest
chip
Food for thought: "Rising Chinese labor costs are changing the economics of global manufacturing and could contribute to the creation of 3 million jobs in the U.S. by 2020, according to a study being released on Friday." http://www.cnbc.com/id/44810326 "Two years ago, America was importing about two thirds of its oil. Today, according to the Energy Information Administration, it imports less than half. And by 2017, investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts the US could be poised to pass Saudi Arabia and overtake Russia as the world's largest oil producer." http://www.npr.org/2011/09/25/140784004/new-boom-… On a personal level, I have a small business that sources product worldwide. In the last year or so, we've been sourcing almost all of our new lines from the US. The designs are great, the costs are reasonable and perhaps most importantly, the Internet has given us a platform to… Read more »
VMD
Guest
VMD

@chip:

[Job numbers] If you look further, "Employment fell by 35,000 in the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing sector, while manufacturing employment slipped by 24,000 for the month. Educational services adding 38,000 positions with the start of the new school year.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/10/07/

space889
Member
space889

@specialfx3000: Actually we don't need these lame lemmings, who are supposed to know better but apparently don't have a clue on real life, teaching our impressionable young people and screw up their thinking. Good riddence I say!

mattymatt123
Guest
mattymatt123

Ya, were is the US getting their oil from? CANADA oil sands. There is even a commercial on t.v. where a government official is saying that the U.S. has it's OWN oil resources… he actually says the oil sands.

mattymatt123
Guest
mattymatt123

I think the RE agents are getting nervous. I notice allot more commercials on t.v. promoting re-max and others…

Troll
Guest
Troll

@chip:

“Two years ago, America was importing about two thirds of its oil. Today, according to the Energy Information Administration, it imports less than half. And by 2017, investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts the US could be poised to pass Saudi Arabia and overtake Russia as the world’s largest oil producer.”

Brilliant quote, not factually untrue, but highly misleading. US imports are down thanks to a sharp drop off in demand and a slight uptick in production thanks to high prices which makes all this hard to get oil worth going after. Using this logic, US could be self sufficient as long as oil goes to $300/barrel. Chart here:
http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/images/charts/

jesse
Member

@Troll: "US imports are down thanks to a sharp drop off in demand and a slight uptick in production thanks to high prices which makes all this hard to get oil worth going after"

Good points here. The US is going to have a tough time growing as long as oil production remains difficult and the developing world consumes more of total global output. Personally I always thought the US should start investing in making a bolder transition to NG; they (and Canada) have significant supplies of it.

cgh
Guest
cgh

@Troll: Not entirely true, the predictions are somewhat accurate because of the Bakken formation.

Anon
Guest
Anon

@cgh

oh please, no more Bakken lies from MSM media.

"Using 2006 US imports and consumption for comparison, the Bakken undiscovered resource of 3,649 million barrels of oil, if subsequently discovered and fully developed, would provide us with the equivalent of six months of oil consumption or 10 months of imports, spread over 20 or more years."

yes, you read it correctly, 6 months of consumption!!!

Troll
Guest
Troll

@cgh:

Not entirely true, the predictions are somewhat accurate because of the Bakken formation.

It's not the size of the Slurpee, it's the size and cost of the straw that's important.

N
Guest
N
cgh
Guest
cgh

@Anon: Bakken estimates are currently greater than 20 billion bbl: http://www.ogj.com/articles/2011/02/continental–

These estimates get revised upwards regularly, so stay tuned.

Troll
Guest
Troll

@N: From August.

Anon
Guest
Anon

"It’s not the size of the Slurpee, it’s the size and cost of the straw that’s important."

LOL LOL

chip
Guest
chip
@Troll: True, but the larger point I was trying to make is that there is much untapped energy wealth and, perhaps, a US decline is not inevitable: "Amy Myers Jaffe of Rice University says in the next decade, new oil in the US, Canada and South America could change the center of gravity of the entire global energy supply…. The US, Jaffe says, could have 2 trillion barrels of oil waiting to be drilled. South America could hold another 2 trillion. And Canada? 2.4 trillion. That's compared to just 1.2 trillion in the Middle East and north Africa." Yet, the US continues to withhold drilling permits, pump billions into politically connected solar companies, plan new costs for oil companies and in some places ban fracking for no science-backed reasons. The US and the West in general are in many respects… Read more »
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