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The month with no sales.

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Inventory says.. Not a single new home sold on the west side in September, first zero sale month going back to 1994. Here’s the historical data:

Vancouver West New Home Sales September
YEAR = SALES / LISTINGS
1994 = 15 / 79
1995 = 16 / 157
1996 = 9 / 173
1997 = 12 / 126
1998 = 4 / 90
1999 = 4 / 35
2000 = 6 / 30
2001 = 2 / 35
2002 = 4 / 25
2003 = 14 / 43
2004 = 8 / 48
2005 = 15 / 43
2006 = 5 / 43
2007 = 4 / 42
2008 = 4 / 93
2009 = 11 / 74
2010 = 9 / 61
2011 = 0 / 77

Even the minicrash of 2008 saw four sales of new homes on the west side. The worst September for new home sales was back in 2001.

VMD also notes Burnaby sales are not looking so hot:

[Confirmed: Burnaby Sept/11 SFH Sales Lowest in 5+ years. 60% of last year, 1/3 of 2009, lower than 2008 levels]
2011: 46 (I predicted 45 on post #2)
2010: 75
2009: 127
2008: 51
2007: 81

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Annonymous

Wow…You morons are really grasping at straws…lol.

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zrh2yvr

Well- – Officially we now have one house that sold in Sept that was new. It posted today with a sale date of Sept 19 – however – – it is still a very very low number given the 65+ units for sale. We'll stick with the stat that there were none as none are in the REGBV stats for month.

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Trader

"The capital markets are global. North American demographics don’t apply to the whole world."

True, but western Europe and Japan demographics are also not looking good. That is a big chunk of the consumer who has $.

"If a company produces real goods and services and makes real profits someone somewhere is going to want to own it."

Kind of like if you can rent a property out someone will want to buy it. True, but at what price once prices stop rising and are declining?

You are assuming GDP and company profits continue to grow which supports current PEs. Once earnings and growth reverse PEs compress and dividends are cut. As an example if oil prices drop to say $50 per barrel your oil trust profits and the 9% will evaporate.

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jesse

Global report: http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&… courtesy Greenhorn aka SethM

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jesse

6:30am PST, these days, is the wonderful adrenaline-filled rush I get when at the top of a steep mogul run.

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jesse1

@604x: I have sparse data from late '90s to early 2000s and inventory was above 20k at peak with low sales. MOI would be in the double digits but prices were at best flat and falling from 1997-1999. Speculation: when a market is close to rental equivalency prices are less sensitive to inventory gluts. This is certainly true in the US right now. Also relevant– in that era migration was ebbing.

If I manage to snag inventory from 1995 onwards it might provide some clues what is to come.

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patriotz

@Best place on meth:

"You're exactly right, and we're also just in the beginning phase of boomer retirement and retirees don't buy stocks"

The capital markets are global. North American demographics don't apply to the whole world. If a company produces real goods and services and makes real profits someone somewhere is going to want to own it.

Oil and gas trusts are now yielding 9% and I'm buying. Not a whole lot right now, but that's good enough to get me going.

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604 Receding Gains

@jesse in post 36. My 2 cents on those correlations: The volatility could be attributed to bigger/non-standard externalities that ramped up after 2009. Specifically BoC and CMHC implementing strategies to "pull forward demand" and create panic buying by pushing out press releases about impending higher rates, impending tighter mortgage rules x2, HST etc. That explains the spike in buyers and prices. I'd guess the cool-off in 2010 was the BIG ONE – the start of the collapse in buyer confidence (but BoC/CMHC successfully created a new panic wave of buying to avert it and get Tories re-elected). Also, your data points only go back to 2005 – when the madness of crowds took over and the upswing truly started. Once consumer confidence turns, the correlations to 2005-2009 data probably go out the window. That is a period of enormous optimism… Read more »

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Trader

@McLovin:

"Remember these companies raise their dividends every year."

You are looking the rear view mirror. Dividends will be cut and stock prices will plummet when earnings shrink. Earnings are supported by the credit expansion and rock bottom interest rates. Credit will be contracting for a long time and interest rates will rise.

The PEs we have been used to will also contract. You could could see the Dow at a 4 PE. With the earnings cut in half that will be a big hair cit on your blue chips.

Look at the 1930s for an example of what happens during deflation.

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Anonymous

I'm pretty sure that's fart stink that I'm smelling.

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southseacompany

Link to tonight's Global story on people leaving BC:

http://www.globaltvbc.com/video/generation+how++y…

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Vansanity

Slightly off-topic… Hang Seng continues its slide in morning trading, down another 268pts. For those keeping track the Hong Kong index is down a modest 44% since April of 2011.

Nothing to see here, China's infinite boom continues… move along.

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Pipa

McLovin Says:"buy back in when the market is up 50%."

Bhawaha

are you out of medicine?

Cash is KING in deflation.

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McLovin

Japan's stock market is 21 years past its peak and down 80% – but of course most people can't possibly imagine that ever happening here. Because it's different here. Best place on Meth, you are obviously on Meth and know nothing about the markets. We are nothing like Japan and won't ever be. Again, people like you and Pipa are what makes a market. While you are throwing away your shares of Intel at $21 or Cresent Point Energy at $38, I am buying them, banking the dividends and will be very happy in the future. You dumbasses dream about scraping up $100K to buy a Subway and make 14% margins when you can buy a world class company with a stellar balance sheet , low P/E, great management and high yield but you throw it away saying the market… Read more »

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McLovin

Pipa is a sheep and sheep get slaughtered.

Instead of buying a world calss multi national at less than 10 PE and 4% yield with high margins and huge barriers to entry he/she'll go to cash and earn 0.001% for the next three years and buy back in when the market is up 50%.

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McLovin

A BARGAIN?????

Have you looked at the graph? We at the start of deleveraging of biblical proportions and I am sure you can find your bargains 10 years from now.

For every seller there is a buyer.

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ReadyToPop

Developers in China slash housing prices

There are signs of trouble in the China's real-estate market, which has the potential to ripple across the Pacific Ocean and affect Vancouver housing prices.

Writing on the American Perspective from China blog, Patrick Chovanec suggests that "China's economy may be approaching a crisis".

Chovanec, a professor at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management in Beijing, adds that "one potential interpretation of this crisis is that China is entering the terminal stage of a bubble, and that what we are seeing are the early signs of a much broader collapse".

Ouch…RTP

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Anonnymous

Yep…doing good.

Still In Quintet line-up.

$50 hour,$300(Cash) so far and not even midnite.

Keep you posted, got to take a leak and tell the guy ahead of me its green tea.

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xyz

Anyone manage to tape the global spot? I've searched the global site and can't find it.

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RippedtoShit

oil – can easily go lower for a good while…..

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RippedtoShit

Japanese stock market was a nasdaq type bubble, except bigger and demographics suck.

our problems are not as bad. but they are bad.

can they print enough money to get inflation kicked up? I've bet on it, but its not a one way bet.

interesting times.

oil – my take is that it goes (a lot) higher, JMHO.

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Best place on meth

@Pipa:

>>>Why would you invest in RRSP (stocks/mutual funds) when we are just in the beginning phase of deflationary spiral?<<<

You're exactly right, and we're also just in the beginning phase of boomer retirement and retirees don't buy stocks.

Anyone who can't figure that out deserves to hang on to their stocks and watch them decline year after year after year.

Japan's stock market is 21 years past its peak and down 80% – but of course most people can't possibly imagine that ever happening here.

Because it's different here.

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Pipa

Anonymouse Says: “If I buy now perhaps I’m picking up a bargain.”

A BARGAIN?????

Have you looked at the graph? We at the start of deleveraging of biblical proportions and I am sure you can find your bargains 10 years from now.

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pricedoutfornow

@gordholio:

Perhaps a moderate dose of reality that high housing prices are not necessarily a good thing for an economy (eg. young families). Perhaps the tide is turning…prices are SO high now that it's driving people away. They interviewed some recruiter who also shared the same sentiment-he can no longer promote a "Vancouver lifestyle". People take one look at house prices and just say NO. I think we can guess where things will go from here. It's just not sustainable.

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Anonymouse

@Pipa: "Why would you invest in RRSP (stocks/mutual funds) when we are just in the beginning phase of deflationary spiral? Why would you put your hard earned money into something that would loose value in the foreseeable future?"

But if I sell now I'm guaranteed a loss. If I buy now perhaps I'm picking up a bargain.

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