Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again, let’s do our regular weekend news round up and open topic discussion thread! Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

REBGV October Stat PDF
Carney not complacent on debt and housing
Here’s what half a mil will get you
City urges speculators to cool it on Cambie
Runawayscreaming on leaving the province
Sellers file complaint on effective home inspector
HK home sales fall over 50% in October
N.B. stops accepting immigrants from China
Harper predicts ‘cooler heads’ will prevail in Greece

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes below and have an excellent weekend!

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CanuckDownUnder
Member
CanuckDownUnder

September numbers in Australia were down another 0.2%, prices are now down 3.6% in 2011. The RBA just cut rates by 0.25% but not even ZIRP would save this market now.

Year over year median price changes:

Sydney -1.2%

Adelaide -3.4%

Melbourne -4.4%

Perth -5.1%

Brisbane -6.1%

Little known Sydney fact – the second most spoken language at home here is Arabic, so I've finally figured out what HAM stands for.

jesse
Member

-71700 full time. Manufacturing taking it over a barrel.

Bear hit by train.

Buy gold!!!!1!

Oilman
Guest
Oilman

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business

It's not going to be a Merry Christmas for many households in Canada this year.

Crash
Guest
Crash

There is an article in the Real Estate Weekly (rew.ca) titled "Equity Vs. Debt, is it household debt or is it equity?" and the gist of the article is if it's mortgage debt then it can be looked at as equity. This is a ridiculous premise considering R/E values are seen as declining over the next while so not only would a purchaser be paying mtg interest but they would most likely be losing equity as the property drops in value. It never ceases to amaze me the spin the R/E industry puts on things.

patriotz
Member

@Crash:

"This is a ridiculous premise considering R/E values are seen as declining over the next while "

It's ridiculous no matter which direction prices go.

The central point that they're missing is that a household can retire its mortgage debt by selling its house to another household, but the buying household assumes debt to buy it. So in aggregate across households, property values don't represent an ability to service mortgage debt at all. The households simply play musical chairs.

For all households collectively only incomes can service mortgage debt.

jumping in
Guest
jumping in
registered
Member
registered

Senate: "Are you, Mr. Carney, complacent on debt and housing?"

Mark: "No."

Sargent: "Are you, Mr. Picton, placing anyone in wood chippers?"

Robert: "No."

Well that settles it then. Thanks Bloomberg, top notch reporting.

jumping in
Guest
jumping in

Does this mean we need to use taxpayers money to solve Vancouver's housing problems caused by HAM????
http://www.geoffmeggs.ca/2011/04/06/would-limits-

Dyugle
Guest
Dyugle

Not complacent, complicit!!

Someone Finally Gets
Guest
Someone Finally Gets

All bears should familiarize themselves with Sandy Garossino, and independent running for Vancouver City Council

She is the only candidate out there that understands the housing issues in Vancouver!

http://www.straight.com/article-502626/vancouver/

patriotz
Member

@Someone Finally Gets It…:

"She is the only candidate out there that understands the housing issues in Vancouver!"

Well only partially. She's right that the root cause of the problem is speculation, but doesn't understand that for every foreign buyer making a speculative purchase there are at least 10 locals, enabled by government mortgage guarantees and taxation policies.

But it's a lot easier for someone running for office to point the finger at someone across the ocean than at the people next door.

Call em as I see em
Guest
Call em as I see em

@patriotz:

"Well only partially. She’s right that the root cause of the problem is speculation, but doesn’t understand that for every foreign buyer making a speculative purchase there are at least 10 locals, enabled by government mortgage guarantees and taxation policies."

Exactly. If you remove the "foreign buyer" you might be able to buy a West Side or Richmond house for 5% cheaper than you could today but we would still be in a bubble and those markets would still be way overpriced. How many locals are seriously looking at those markets?

At least with foreign money when the bottom falls out of the market CMHC (taxpayers) won't be holding the bag.

Ted
Guest
Ted

-Runawayscreaming on leaving the province

Too bad the VSE is gone it was a great magnet for these types of behaviors. Now the corruption has moved over to real estate…

jesse
Member

@Someone Finally Gets It…: Maybe she does.

Tell her to respond to vreaa's questions here.

So far only one candidate has bothered responding after being approached by me via email. If you think they are reasonable questions to ask, I think it's fair to ask why most candidates aren't responding, and whether they have demonstrated an ability to listen to and respond to voters' concerns.

Sandy has been emailed twice and has not yet directly responded to the questions.

jesse
Member

@patriotz: "She’s right that the root cause of the problem is speculation, but doesn’t understand that for every foreign buyer making a speculative purchase there are at least 10 locals, enabled by government mortgage guarantees and taxation policies."

I agree here, but even if someone understood it, it wouldn't be a popular message. I would expect if anyone were to elucidate the root causes of speculative bubbles they would not be able to garner popular support, though it may be enough to get them elected by a minority bloc. Garossino and Carr have a chance of doing this, I doubt the 3(4) other slates would ever take up a position that points out and criticizes man's follies.

Lisa
Guest
Lisa

"If you think they are reasonable questions to ask, I think it’s fair to ask why most candidates aren’t responding, and whether they have demonstrated an ability to listen to and respond to voters’ concerns.'

Because they are corrupt. they are in the pockets of RE estate lobby. our problems can not be solved by elections. elections are bought.

N
Guest
N

@Lisa:

You don't have to go as far as what would normally be called corruption. The RE lobby includes just about everyone who owns property in Vancouver. That's a very big demographic and it is also the demographic most likely to make campaign contributions. What is more, it probably includes most politicians and their friends and family.

That's the problem with RE. If there were a bubble in salt, it would soon be gone, either naturally or through government intervention. Because few people have much money invested in salt, no one would object to measures aimed at deflating a salt bubble. That is one reason why RE bubbles are so common: there are so many people with so much skin in the game.

Anon
Guest
Anon

@Call em as I see em

"At least with foreign money when the bottom falls out of the market CMHC (taxpayers) won’t be holding the bag."

I don't believe this to be entirely the case. Based on international interest rate arbitrage, it seems probable to me that quite a few foreign investors could hold large (read: CMHC insured) mortgages which are serviced based on interest income in their country of origin. This allows them to invest in Canadian property with very little skin in the game. When and if the market turns, they can fairly easily walk away leaving CMHC and us dumb locals holding the bag.

patriotz
Member

@Anon:

"Based on international interest rate arbitrage, it seems probable to me that quite a few foreign investors could hold large (read: CMHC insured) mortgages"

CMHC does not insure offshore buyers. I mean legally offshore, of course, they may or may not be here at any given time.

dool
Guest
dool

@CanuckDownUnder:

you shold post this in

SydneyCondo.info

not Vancouver , dumb ass

Anon
Guest
Anon

@patriotz

I'm referring more to people with PR or Canadian citizen status (or their relatives) who maintain large offshore holdings. I've met more than a few "HAM" types for whom this is definitely the case. VREAA is full of anecdotes of "locals" who "own" multiple properties on the west side … Just my opinion, take it for what it's worth 😉

patriotz
Member

@N:

"That’s a very big demographic and it is also the demographic most likely to make campaign contributions. "

Also more likely to vote, which is what I think really matters.

Raincouver
Member
Raincouver

patriotz Says:

@Someone Finally Gets It…:

“She is the only candidate out there that understands the housing issues in Vancouver!”

Well only partially. She’s right that the root cause of the problem is speculation, <i />

Well, not really. The root cause is the 800 pound gorilla in the living room that's dumping on everyone. As long as private central banks can print money out of thin air, charge interest on nothing, then throw it at the plebs to make them indebted to said banks … then we are totally missing the point.

We can point fingers all we like but it might be better to look at 'que bono', who profits. The banks are laughing all the way to themselves. RE speculators are pikers in comparison.

.

Eddie
Guest
Eddie

Elizabeth May (Green party leader) seems to get it too:

"Conservative government meddling in CMHC lending practices has also created a very real risk of significant public financial loss should the housing market soften further. Should there be a significant adjustment downwards of Canadian housing prices, Canadian taxpayers could well be on the hook for as much as $125 billion in CMHC-insured higher risk mortgages."

Lisa
Guest
Lisa

Raincouver:"As long as private central banks can print money out of thin air, charge interest on nothing, then throw it at the plebs to make them indebted to said banks …"

Exactly. Bingo. Banks are the drug pushers that enables bubble to be formed. But Canadians are so brainwashed by financial oligarchs that they can not differentiate cause from the symptoms. As I said politicians are in the pockets of the banksters.

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