Going down?

At least one person thinks that Global Recession MkII is about to cause Mr. Carney to slash interest rates in Canada. The prediction is a 75% drop from the rock bottom 1% to a rocker bottomer .25%

This could be really good news for the few people who’ve built up good credit and cash. I can think of at least two cases where debt levels rose so high that property prices were crashing while interest rates were dropping.

There are many places in that big country just to the south of us where you can buy a house for half what it cost a few years ago and you can lock in for ridiculously low mortgage rates. Japan also saw home prices dropping while interest rates fell. Heck it even happened here in Vancouver at the start of the eighties.

Only a moron would think that a housing market crash means no one is buying and everyone loses their job. Someones always buying, they just don’t always pay the same price.

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Manson
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Manson

Well in the States ..they had a crash..everyone lost their job..and no one is buying..Who's the Moron again?

jesse
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@fixie guy: I think the subtext here is that banks won't get "bailed out" in one fell swoop, they will get bailed out indirectly, slowly over time so as not to attract acute anger, if Canada is any gauge.

It would be ironic if the likes of CMHC end up requiring a tens-of-billions of dollars worth of bailouts under Carney's watch.

registered
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registered

@103 jesse: "Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he wants to reform global financial rules to ensure that no banks can become large enough that they’d threaten the global economy." “I’m saying no bailouts,” Carney told the CBC’s George Stroumboulopoulos …" By 2010 assets, depending on source: Largest bank in the US: Bank of America with assets of $2340B USD Largest bank in Canada: Royal Bank with assets of $762B CDN If Mr. Carney needs help with the arithmetic of per capita or per GDP details I would be honoured to oblige. I'll even throw in suggestions for what it means to bailouts when the CMHC buys bank MBS proactively in real time rather than retroactive through emergency measures like TARP. You're right, not American. Infinitely dumber. Way to work that global foreign relations mojo, boys.

asia man
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asia man

@ never again enjoy dubai, but make sure you get a really good accountant who knows how to deal with the Revenue Canada mafia. and when you come back be ready for the rubber glove and the microscope while the dodgy uber rich triad guy laughs at you bending over..@ rob. alot of people compare all this to the Japanese lost decade or two, but you are right to note the difference. its all hype. deflation and the supposed lost decade were good for people here in Japan I lived through the whole thing. but as you mentioend it wont be the same for canada because of an extremely different mind set and economic base. interesting times. mt prediction; stagnation and slow droppage before interest rate normalization, then crash. when? anybodys guess. just lost 130k on my tokyo house I… Read more »

Makaya
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Makaya

@Bailing in BC: No worries, I didn't see your post over at VREAA before I posted this. I should have written "Peter Schiff WAS renting" up until at least 2009. He sure bought for a lot cheaper that he would have in 2006!

Anyway, this video is still very relevant for the Vancouver housing bubble. The way he describes people's behaviours around RE sounds so familiar here…

Bailing in BC
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Bailing in BC

No, Shiff is not renting

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAaEnXr-SI8

Check out around minute eight.

Sorry Makaya, I seem to be following you around this evening 🙂

Makaya
Member
Makaya

Forgive me if this link has been posted on this blog already:

Chinese TV Host Says Regime Nearly Bankrupt
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/chines

And I've also discovered that Peter Schiff is also renting! He said it in a hilarious way worth watching…

See at 10 minutes in this video:
http://youtu.be/EgMclXX5msc

jesse
Member

@Patsan: This is possible, see here for a first cut. # occupied private dwellings: 2001 – 758,715; 2006 – 817,035; 2011 (est) – 875,000

Some fraction of the sales should be attributed to population growth, not the total population: a new entrant will necessitate a transaction more than the incumbents.

Patsan
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Patsan

jesse,

At the first glance the sales volume is going to be the same as in 2010 or in 2002. However, if we take into consideration overall housing stock and its increase over years, the numbers may not be as stale as they look.

Is there any chance to find absolute numbers of housing stock in Vancouver and compare percentage of units in whole stock for sale, sales, etc.?

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

Canadian borrowers fail HELOC test.

"57 per cent did not know that when you take out a HELOC the financial institution lending the money puts a mortgage on the borrower’s home."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/per

RippedtoShit
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RippedtoShit

Frack, this meltdown is taking forever.

jesse
Member

CBC: Mark Carney being a dick Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he wants to reform global financial rules to ensure that no banks can become large enough that they'd threaten the global economy. "I'm saying no bailouts," Carney told the CBC's George Stroumboulopoulos in a recent interview. "The objective [is] ending 'too big to fail'." Carney was recently named head of the Financial Stability Board, a recently formed international agency with a mandate to oversee the international financial system. In the interview, he says the goal is to bring global rules closer to Canada's model. "We're going to change the rules so the system as a whole is more resilient," he said. "If a big global bank fails, the system goes on. [Just] that company goes away. Some of the rules will be changes to capital ratios. The… Read more »

jesse
Member

Halfway through November:

November 2011 data

Average Sales 124

Total Sales 1235

Average Listings 192

Total Listings 1924

Average sell/list 64%

Days in month 21

Days elapsed 10

% days elapsed 48%

Expected sales 2,594

Expected listings 4,040

Max daily sales 167

Min daily sales 87

Max daily listings 229

Min daily listings 158

November 2010 data at same point in month

Average Sales 121

Total Sales 1212

Average Listings 169

Total Listings 1692

Average sell/list 72%

Days in month 21

Days elapsed 10

% days elapsed 48%

Expected sales 2,545

Expected listings 3,553

Max daily sales 146

Min daily sales 96

Max daily listings 191

Min daily listings 144

November 2010 month end data

Average Sales 122

Total Sales 2566

Average Listings 144

Total Listings 3026

Average sell/list 85%

Days in month 21

Days elapsed 21

% days elapsed 100%

Expected sales 2,566

Expected listings 3,026

Max daily sales 152

Min daily sales 93

Max daily listings 191

Min daily listings 83

Previous sales volume

1999 1775

2000 1730

2001 2604

2002 2555

2003 3018

2004 2486

2005 2938

2006 2358

2007 2883

2008 874

2009 3000

2010 2509

paulb.
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paulb.

New Listings 181

Price Changes 110

Sold Listings 137

TI:15633

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@b5baxter: "Says a local realtor: “In Whistler, we are now back to 2002 prices and still very, very soft…”"

More BS! Prices are even lower than that.

registered
Member
registered

@93 Best place on meth Says: ".. the other wants to put more money in developers pockets…"

Should be as effective in improving affordability as was cramming money into buyer's pockets via the CMHC. Linear thinkers are so cute.

lol cats
Guest
lol cats

@DEFAULT NAME:

@lol cats: …keep waiting bears… you’ll be right one of these years. meanwhile enjoy the shitty end of your vancouver special. cheers…..Um, isn’t it debt ridden home owners that are enjoying their shitty Vancouver specials?

the shitty end being the garage/shed converted to a rental some bears live in

Extremely rich Van h
Guest

@rob:

Where is the beef and where is the crash since 2001?

Isn't that Vancouver Bear morons and retarded always predicting the hike of interest? This time another humililation slap on their balls again as usual,Outch man.Chinese and local Chinese will keep buying in coming century.Next yr for sure another 10 to 15 % increase in RE.Buy now while your mama can afford helping u.

registered
Member
registered

@92 Patsan: That's not the right table, it's finance and services only, missing goods production, manufacturing, construction….

http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/econ41-eng.h

jesse
Member

@Best place on meth: "Dumb and Dumber"

I know which one I'd pick…

jesse
Member

@DEFAULT NAME: Interesting read. Do not confuse Chinese economic acumen for high GDP growth. Higher consumption and "redistribution" necessitates significantly lower GDP growth, but that's the best the government can do in terms of long-term competitiveness. That redistributed capital comes from somewhere.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@Re-diculous:

"I see these next couple years as assessing what the problem is, how significant it is, and what best tools are that might address it," Robertson said.

"Anton said that the city needs to cut bureaucratic development costs to encourage an increase in housing stock, and so that developers can pass on savings to buyers."

So one wants to spend 2 years studying the problem while the other wants to put more money in developers pockets (pass the savings on, my ass).

Dumb and Dumber.

Patsan
Guest
Patsan

GDP at basic prices, 2010 stats:

All industries – 1,233,930

Finance and insurance, real estate and renting and leasing and management of companies and enterprises – 257,488, including Real estate – 153,834

Assuming that part of finance, insurance, and management is directly related to real estate, real estate contribution to GDP is somewhere between 12.5% and 20.9%

http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/fin06-eng.ht

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Chinese Bubble Bursting: A Probable Non-Event

"Yes, the property bubble in China looks like it’s bursting. But no, this will probably not prove to be a catastrophe. Instead, we in the West are going to get schooled once again, when our Eastern ‘comrades’ show us just how to run an advanced capitalist economy."

– Roubini Global Economics

http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2011/11/chinese-

Re-diculous
Member
Re-diculous

Here's a candidate for council that is NOT in the back pocket of developers and is favour of restrictions on foreign ownership of Vancouver real-estate. She has my vote!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/st