Mish facepalms over Vancouver RE yet again
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/vancouver-real-estate-bubble-in.html
A million dollars can buy you a ‘liveable’ house in deepest east van..
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Vancouver Peak Forums- Sechelt Development - The Wharf PlaceThe Wharf Place, a new 24-unit condo development offering 6 street level commercial units, completed construction and opened for business in April. The developer is not ‘laughing to the bank’ nor ‘laughing to Lund’; in fact, the developer would be lucky to make it as far as Pender Harbour crying all the way. If sales in this unit indicate the state of the co […]
- Gibsons Development - Island VistaI've been keeping my eye on Island Vista, a small 8-unit townhouse development in Gibsons, for some time now wondering when the developer was going to face reality and drop the prices. Well, it finally happened last week. It wasn’t a big drop but given it took so long it must have been very painful. I noticed the ground work getting underway back in 200 […]
- Sechelt Development - The Watermark at SecheltThe Watermark at Sechelt is the new condo development that grabbed the last remaining waterfront land in the core of Sechelt and is now laughing all the way to…Lund!! Yep, ‘laughing to Lund’ but not to the bank based on unit sales so far. I first introduced this development in a March post and after a recent discovery I thought it deserved the ‘Skook Treatme […]
- Need help with math...duh!Math is not my strong point and I want to calculate percentage change between two numbers. I have found a website with a calculator to make this process less painful, but I don't understand the result. Here is the website page: http://www.mathsisfun.com/percentage-calculator.html For example: To go from 70 to 137 - the percentage change is 95.7% ...okay […]
- Sechelt Development - Trail Bay EstatesI have struggled a bit with this development. As I continued to research it, the question ‘What makes a development such as this a success?’ lodged in the back of my mind. It is the mere selling of lots or is it the building of homes on those lots and establishing a thriving community? Perhaps, you will come to your own conclusions by the end of this post an […]
- Sechelt Development - SilverStonePoor SilverStone. It tried so hard to be taken seriously but has been such an unmitigated disaster for its developer, Greypointe Properties out of Vancouver, that I feel I should at least give it the ‘drop shadow’ treatment out of respect for its efforts. Greypointe is in good company though. Look at that area just above and to the right of SilverStone on th […]
- Best way to post?Hey guys, I need your ideas on how best to post these individual development projects for the Sunshine Coast. Should I start a thread for each development or should I group them together - all Sechelt developments in one thread, all Pender Harbour developments in one thread, etc. If I go the last route, then any update would mean a change to each individual […]
- Sechelt Development - Seawatch at the ShoresI am going to look at individual developments and offer as much information as I can about them. I am gathering this info from a variety of sources (developer website, RE agent listing, etc.) and I am also creating a spread sheet for each project with list dates, asking prices, sales date and sale price when available. I will try to follow these projects whe […]
- Royal LePage Home Survey - Vancouver Home & Rent Prices 1984-2012Royal LePage Home Survey - Vancouver Home & Rent Prices The following data is a was obtained from Royal LePage's historical home price survey and adjusted with a 4Q moving average. CSV data can be copied here. April 26, 2013 - Update: The correct titles as defined by Royal LePage are: Executive Two-Story Detached Standard Condominium Apartment Detac […]
- Demographics and other fun stuff...In the post Zoom Zoom makes the news!!, I quoted a Vancouver Sun news article. In that article, it alleges that an organization called FABS (For a Better Sechelt) spent a great deal of money in the last municipal election to ensure a pro-business slate of candidates would win the day. A little research into FABS shows that the majority of its founding member […]
- Sechelt Development - The Wharf Place
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November 19th, 2011 at 8:04 pm 1
thankl you Mansur good post, interesting to see the opinions of outsiders on our absurd little circus and how our sister circus in australia compares
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November 20th, 2011 at 12:59 am 2
Yup, $1 million livable home in EAST VAN in Dr H N MacCorkindale Elementary School catchment that is ranked 681 out of 875 (per Fraser Institute – 2009/2010). Hope I can beat out all those others buyers bidding above listing price.
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November 20th, 2011 at 1:25 am 3
It's official- we live in Bizarro world.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/1…
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November 20th, 2011 at 1:47 am 4
2 Jack Says: "…Dr H N MacCorkindale Elementary School catchment that is ranked 681 out of 875…"
Sounds ideally matched to the type of person interested in that property.
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November 20th, 2011 at 1:54 am 5
I have to admit that neighbourhood isn't conducive of a $1MM teardown. Slightly wider lot, but that's it.
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November 20th, 2011 at 2:01 am 6
This is a strange world indeed, yet there is no doubt houses are selling.
I wont be surprised if that shack wont sell over listing price. This story has been consistent the last 10 years, no matter what anyone says, we cant deny the reality.
Mish has been calling for the crash in Vancouver for the last 5 years if I remember.
I am starting to believe that Van might be in a sweet spot with all the corrupt chinese money coming here and could will outlast the wildest crash predictions.
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November 20th, 2011 at 2:14 am 7
@pricedoutfornow: …It’s official- we live in Bizarro world.
http://globaleconomicanalysis……raise.html…
So, using their own logic, it wouldn't be unreasonable to put in a bid of $180,000 – which might be accepted.
Would it be awesome if tax assessments were based on 'asking' prices?
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November 20th, 2011 at 3:47 am 8
@paradox:
>>>I am starting to believe that Van might be in a sweet spot with all the corrupt chinese money coming here and could will outlast the wildest crash predictions.<<<
It already has outlasted crash predictions by a minimum of 3 years. That's 3 years of borrowed time.
China's finished now so we'll see if the dirty money dries up or goes into overdrive as the rats desert the sinking ship.
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November 20th, 2011 at 4:09 am 9
It is always interesting to read what others have to say but simply posting a house for sale on the MLS at a inflated price doesn't prove much. Asking prices are meaningless. Why not show an example of a sale price? Then do at least some analysis to show a bubble. That post is not worthy of even putting up.
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November 20th, 2011 at 4:22 am 10
#8,
still living with your mama? got any breastfed this morning?
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November 20th, 2011 at 4:35 am 11
Again, I go back to what I've heard anecdotally….the china syndrome appears to have hit a snag, comments i'm hearing are along the lines of a major slowdown of chinese buying/bidding wars…it is only a matter of time before this hits prices, i foresee year over year declines in a few months….
shit is about to hit the fan, plug your nose…unless they sprinkle msg on this market, its ready for some serious decay…
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November 20th, 2011 at 5:00 am 12
Best place on meth: "China finished now so we'll see if the dirty money dries up or goes into overdrive as the rats desert the sinking ship."
rats already left for ottawa. you are next.
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November 20th, 2011 at 5:42 am 13
@Anonymous: ….It is always interesting to read what others have to say but simply posting a house for sale on the MLS at a inflated price doesn’t prove much. Asking prices are meaningless. ..
The thing is though, it's different here, right? If you're interested in that house, you better buy it now cause if it doesn't sell, the asking price will be $70M next year (reminds me of that penthouse at the corner of Burrard and Pacific that no one has actually lived in for 20 years). It's the new law of supply and demented Realturds.
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November 20th, 2011 at 6:16 am 14
@paradox:
"I am starting to believe that Van might be in a sweet spot with all the corrupt chinese money coming here"
Assuming that Chinese money has been supporting prices metro wide (which I don't) you also have to assume that Chinese money is going to keep ignoring all the other RE opportunities on the planet, virtually all of which are better value than Vancouver.
Crooked != stupid. These guys are taking their money out because they don't want to lose it and once Vancouver starts looking like a losing proposition (i.e. prices start falling, and don't tell us it can't happen because it happened in 2008) the dirty money (however much of it there really is) is likely to go elsewhere.
Speaking of 2008, I have yet to hear an explanation from the China theorists of why all the dirty money stopped coming in April 2008 and magically started again in early 2009.
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November 20th, 2011 at 6:17 am 15
@DEFAULT NAME:
"If you’re interested in that house, you better buy it now cause if it doesn’t sell, the asking price will be $70M next year"
It could be. You can ask what ever price you want. What matters is what a house sells for. If the dump had of sold for 1.05 million it might be a story.
I still remember a past story that made headlines on the news where a downtown penthouse was listed for sale at 17 million. The place ended up selling for about 7 million. The 17 million asking price was irrelevant.
I guess you and Mish both don't get it.
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November 20th, 2011 at 6:27 am 16
@DEFAULT NAME:
"I guess you and Mish both don’t get it."
Mish certainly understands the difference between asking and market price.
What he was commenting on is that the ask was taken seriously by the listing realtor, who only gets paid if it sells, and so it has a credible chance of being taken seriously by a buyer. And it's not the only dump on the East side listed (or selling) for over a mil, by a long shot.
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November 20th, 2011 at 7:03 am 17
@RippedtoShit: "unless they sprinkle msg on this market, its ready for some serious decay…"
Nitpick: MSG is not a preservative. It is a flavor enhancer.
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November 20th, 2011 at 7:06 am 18
@DEFAULT NAME: ….I still remember a past story that made headlines on the news where a downtown penthouse was listed for sale at 17 million. The place ended up selling for about 7 million. The 17 million asking price was irrelevant….
Ya, that's the place I'm talking about – at the corner of Burrard and Pacific. I's been on the market perpetually for years, always with an asking price at least 3 times what it sells for. It has popped on the front page of the Sun Homes section regularly every few years for the past 20 years – as a matter of fact, it's overdue it's biannual pop up.
If nothing else, the nut jobs marketing RE here keep the laughs coming.
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November 20th, 2011 at 9:08 am 19
@PennyStock:
PennySt…. Since we are splitting hairs;
Would campden tablets or potassium metabisulfite do the job?
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November 20th, 2011 at 12:32 pm 20
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-21/china-re…
China Real Estate at Tipping Point: Nomura
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November 20th, 2011 at 1:10 pm 21
@DEFAULT NAME: "Asking prices are meaningless. Why not show an example of a sale price?"
Where do I look up sale prices?
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November 20th, 2011 at 1:26 pm 22
Did anyone see the Financial Post article about "Mingles". Personal Finance profile about how singles are buying into condos and not need to wait until they are in a committed relationship.
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/11/19/ming…
WELL…the article states that the girl works in MARKETING…
If you check out her twitter account. She actually works in CONDO MARKETING.
Even the financial post is reaching for this crap now. Really, "interview" someone who works in Condo Marketing about how they're buying a condo…and not disclose that? Seriously??
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November 20th, 2011 at 2:04 pm 23
#14 @patriotz: "Speaking of 2008, I have yet to hear an explanation from the China theorists of why all the dirty money stopped coming in April 2008 and magically started again in early 2009."
http://i.imgur.com/ELkub.png
China's stimulus package was completely insane.
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November 20th, 2011 at 2:07 pm 24
http://money.canoe.ca/money/business/canada/archi…
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November 20th, 2011 at 2:22 pm 25
@604serf: Good catch. I actually went on her linkedin profile, and here is how she describes herself:
“Manage strategic real estate project marketing programs for clients. Responsible for marketing strategy, public relations, forecasting, budgeting, lead generation, event planning, media buying and negotiations. Initiate and manage strategy and direction with graphic and interior designers for marketing collateral, sales centers and show suites.”
and here is how she was introduced in the FP article:
“Melissa Yan wondered why she had to wait until she got married to buy a home.
She decided she didn’t. So the 28-year-old, who works in marketing, opted to jump into Vancouver’s hot housing market at Christmas in 2010.”
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November 20th, 2011 at 3:16 pm 26
I seem to see a boiler-room type of operation for the Vancouver RE from the realturds in Van and the China pumpers.
Quickly… Someone call the
SEC
BoC
CREA
RCMP
FBI
CIA
DEA
ECB
EMU
FED
BIS
IMF
DME
And…
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November 20th, 2011 at 3:32 pm 27
@rp1:
"China’s stimulus package was completely insane."
Imagine if Canada had tried something like that – you would have seen RE prices go up all over Canada in 2009, eh?
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November 20th, 2011 at 6:03 pm 28
My other post is in the pipeline. Here is an interesting paper on China's stimulus plan:
http://media.hoover.org/sites/default/files/docum…
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November 20th, 2011 at 6:26 pm 29
@604serf:
Here's a nice little piece from an Australian consumer group:
Real estate's influence on newspapers
http://www.choice.com.au/reviews-and-tests/money/…
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November 20th, 2011 at 9:50 pm 30
@22 604serf: Back in the day when first frequenting these forums the revulsion often expressed toward the real estate industry was incomprehensible. It's been a learning experience. Lessons from handling the tobacco industry's misrepresentations could be applicable to this one after the market inevitably turns.
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November 21st, 2011 at 12:01 am 31
@Makaya:
"So the 28-year-old, who works in marketing, opted to jump into Vancouver’s hot housing market at Christmas in 2010."
You have to wonder is it laziness and incompetence on the part of the reporter (easy story written for them) or is this some form of advertising for the real estate industry that goes to the top in the news paper? Someone should call them out on this.
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November 21st, 2011 at 12:04 am 32
"Jesse Kline on housing. Or: How I stopped worrying and learned to love the bubble" National Post
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/11/21/je…
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November 21st, 2011 at 12:30 am 33
@southseacompany:
Good article, except:
"The CMHC should be privatized, much like the Australians successfully did in 1997"
We'll see how "successful" the Australian privatization was a few more years into their bust. Mortgage insurers always looks sound when prices are going up.
Fannie and Freddie were private sector corporations which had to be rescued by the USG because they were too big to fail. The same is likely to happen in Oz because if the mortgage insurers are allowed to fail the banks will fail in turn.
CMHC cannot be privatized. The private sector is unable and unwilling to take on its contingent liabilities. The best that could be done is for CMHC to stop insuring new mortgages, restrict banks to 80% LTV, and let the non-bank sector make 2nd mortgages for high ratio purchases as they have always been allowed to do.
But this is not going to happen, at least until the whole house of cards has come down.
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November 21st, 2011 at 12:57 am 34
@patriotz:
"Fannie and Freddie were private sector corporations which had to be rescued by the USG because they were too big to fail. "
Private in the sense that they were overseen by Congress, the executives were former politicians or political advisers, and their massive purchases of subprime debt were triggered by the govt's directive to provide home ownership to the poor.
Other than that, they were private.
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:07 am 35
From the FP article: "I know it’s not my final home." says Ms. Yan.
She'd better hope prices keep going up, otherwise she'll be stuck with a husband and two kids in a 600 sq foot condo. Believe me, it can happen.
“They have cash flow increasing and they can afford it, plus financially it makes tremendous sense.” says Scott Plaskett, financial planner.
No it doesn't. If her mortgage is more than what she would pay in rent, then I would say it DOESN'T make any sense at all. And I have yet to see too many people buying these days (with say, 5 or 10% down) where it's cheaper to buy than rent.
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:09 am 36
Having lived in numerous cities in Canada, and understanding the immigrant mentality and immigration cycles I can say the following, there are a number of factors that are specific to Vancouver that can't be quantified by readily available data. They also tie directly back to previous investor immigrant cycles, wealth profiles, and general demographics.
We ask how young persons here are able to buy real estate. A key factor is intergenerational wealth. From experience and understanding of many of these second-generation Canadians, the parents are wealthy. Some parents made this money here upon immigration through hard work, but many also brought large sums of wealth or continued to generate income from other countries. Remember, as is currently the case, immigrants to Vancouver in the 90s were generally wealthier compared to immigrants to other Canadian cities. Wealthy individuals were wealthy for a reason, they largely did not squander and grew their holdings, which has translated into gifts for their children. I am not wealthy, but every second-generation asian I know here has been provided a substantial gift of more than $200,000 for their purchase – I can't compete with this, nor can those tied only to their wage-income. This wealth transfer is more likely than not to continue with the new group nouveau rich which has entered the market.
I am not as in tune wit hother demographic cohorts, but I suspect this is also happening in other groups due to the baby boom shift. Personally I think we are entering the largest single inter-generational wealth transfer ever. Those with wealth with bequeath to their children prior to death for reasons such as real estate purchases. This divide between rich and not-so-rich will widen, and wage-incomes will be a periphery factor
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:17 am 37
34 chip Says: "… their massive purchases of subprime debt were triggered by the govt’s directive to provide home ownership to the poor."
Moodys and other agencies didn't rate those bundled mortgages AAA before they were sold to F&F? All that difficult early talk of arcane concepts like 'tranches' was in retrospect a ruse? Chip, buddy, F&F knowing those assets were poisoned in advance is dynamite news. Go forth and claim that Pulitzer, you obviously have inside knowledge everyone else missed.
Chip for President. Or Glenn Beck co-host.
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:18 am 38
@people observer:
That's nice, but can you explain what that has to do with the ability and willingness of investors to hold cash flow negative properties?
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:22 am 39
@pricedoutfornow:
"She’d better hope prices keep going up, otherwise she’ll be stuck with a husband and two kids in a 600 sq foot condo."
Rising prices make it harder to move up, not easier, because the house that sells for (say) $200K more than a condo today will sell for $300K more tomorrow. Surprising how many people don't see this.
The best scenario for those who want to move up is for prices to stay flat, or even to fall providing they don't end up underwater on their current property.
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:27 am 40
@fixie guy:
"Moodys and other agencies didn’t rate those bundled mortgages AAA before they were sold to F&F?"
F/F didn't (and don't) buy bundled mortgages, they bought individual mortgages. They had their own criteria for buying them, obviously individual mortgages were not rated by Moody's etc. They got the money to buy them by selling their own securities which of course wound up being guaranteed by Uncle Sam.
The slice-and-dice "AAA" securities you're talking about were created by Wall Street from mortgages they bought from lenders and sold on the bond markets.
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:28 am 41
@patriotz -
I am not saying these purchases are financially appropriate.
Rather, for the individual buyer (the children), the risk is minimized by socialization of the purchase price through the parental gift. The gift minimizes the chance of cash-flow negative properties (or in the mind of many buyers, the differential between ownership and rent).
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:44 am 42
@patriotz: Good luck finding a husband with that ball and chain.
Condos are in a worst case scenario. They aren't appreciating (when you consider inflation), and larger units like SFH are appreciating faster. As we've seen in the stats, SFH are appreciating at ten times the rate of condos in COV.
I hope her dog is a good companion.
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November 21st, 2011 at 2:35 am 43
The marketing for Yaletown condos is expanding from young Asian males to females. If your an Asian male, this is where you want to live in Vancouver. A much better selection of woman that your family will accept and lots of them looking for first born sons with lots of money.
Why not appeal to the young Asian woman too – or at least to her family. Having trouble trying to find her an acceptable male, buy her a condo in Yaletown and improve her chances.
Decades ago, this is what the non-Asians did to – they just sent their daughters to University.
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November 21st, 2011 at 2:48 am 44
The marketing for Yaletown condos is expanding from young Asian males to females. If your an Asian male, this is where you want to live in Vancouver.
________
The marketing does not seem to be working. Vancouver has the highest percentage in Canada of young adults (18-30) living at home. The studies documenting this point to the ethnic composition of Vancouver.
Guess you still lives with Mommy and Daddy?
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November 21st, 2011 at 2:54 am 45
"Speaking of 2008, I have yet to hear an explanation from the China theorists of why all the dirty money stopped coming in April 2008 and magically started again in early 2009."
I dont have an answer to your question. Probably the recession hit china at the same time and transactions were frozen for some time.
But I do know a lot of developpers in Vancouver and for the last 5 years they have been building exclusively for asians and the majority of them work only on cash basis.
This I know to be a fact.
I think the RE business is much more important than what statistics capture because of this underground cash component.
We will continue to ignore this phenomenon as long as it benefits the RE lobby that dominates many economic aspects of BC.
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November 21st, 2011 at 2:59 am 46
@paradox: That makes no sense at all. Why would a credit crises affect "underground cash" transactions?
Or is it a case that they are borrowing money at home so it has the appearance of cash here in Vancouver?
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November 21st, 2011 at 3:14 am 47
@paradox: "building exclusively for asians"
No, take a look at condo ads. They are clearly marketing to whites at least as much as Asians.
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November 21st, 2011 at 4:07 am 48
40 patriotz Says: "F/F didn’t (and don’t) buy bundled mortgages…"
Plenty of online references say otherwise. You're correct it wasn't all they bought, but buy them they did.
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November 21st, 2011 at 4:29 am 49
@paradox: You know as "fact" that "a lot of developers in Vancouver and for the last 5 years they have been building exclusively for asians and the majority of them work only on cash basis"?
Care to quantify "a lot"?
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November 21st, 2011 at 4:33 am 50
@chip
"[Fannie and Freddie's] massive purchases of subprime debt were triggered by the govt’s directive to provide home ownership to the poor."
This is a myth created by the American Enterprise Institute. From the link: "Fannie and Freddie securitized virtually no subprime loans). Overall, private securitization mortgages defaulted at more than six times the rate of those originated for Fannie and Freddie securitization.”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/why-wallison…
Fannie and Freddie loans were much less risky than those originated in the private sector.
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November 21st, 2011 at 4:56 am 51
@jesse
Care to quantify “a lot”?
I have 6 friends of mine who are developpers.
I know this is not a lot but their information is accurate.
I trust this more than general statistics spewed around by opaque institutions with no clue of real world happenings.
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November 21st, 2011 at 5:15 am 52
@paradox: "I know this is not a lot but their information is accurate"
I assume they operate mostly in Van West/Richmond. The developers I talk to who operate in Coquitlam and Surrey, as an example, are not seeing the same trend. This may be a big issue in certain neighbourhoods but I question how prevalent it is region-wide.
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November 21st, 2011 at 6:05 am 53
Sometimes you have to look in non traditional places to see a market top signal (i.e. the pizza delivery guy telling you to go long tech stocks)
I will humbly leave this here with you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZDdcO4_5wA
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November 21st, 2011 at 6:07 am 54
@fixie guy:
"40 patriotz Says: “F/F didn’t (and don’t) buy bundled mortgages…”
Plenty of online references say otherwise."
I meant that F/F didn't buy the sliced and diced MBS products that caused so much grief to investors. It wouldn't have made any sense – that's like a restaurant buying cooked meals from another restaurant and using them to make other meals. Their own business was and is buying mortgages and repackaging them. Now that the private MBS market is pretty much dead, they are about the only ones in the game.
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/funding-the-marke…?
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November 21st, 2011 at 6:20 am 55
@Patiently Waiting:
Speaking of target audience here is my favorite RE ad review ever, with this cool adorable sweetheart, lol.
http://condohype.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/stel…
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November 21st, 2011 at 6:22 am 56
@Dabster:
Sorry, the full link to review.
http://condohype.wordpress.com/2008/05/28/at-stel…
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November 21st, 2011 at 6:53 am 57
@signallingthetop: what the hell is that??? I thought initially it was a parody, but it's actually serious! I wish the comment section had not been blocked…
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November 21st, 2011 at 6:58 am 58
@Dabster:
Look at the size of the cappuccino that realtor is holding!
Reminds me of this http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_8MrCtFiQoHI/S7_Onspg1OI…
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November 21st, 2011 at 7:51 am 59
"I question how prevalent it is region-wide."
It isn't. It makes no sense for developers to accept only cash (under the table). You have to get a permit with approximate $ value of the work for everything you do in Vancouver and the Lower Mainland when it comes to building anything. You would be caught pretty quick and there would be no advantage to the developer to do this. As a business you would not be able to get credit on the HST or expense materials, sub trades, your labor, vehicles etc. Sounds like complete fabrication.
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November 21st, 2011 at 9:14 am 60
@DEFAULT NAME: "It makes no sense for developers to accept only cash (under the table)"
I don't think that was the comment, it was that purchasers would buy without mortgage; at least that's how I interpreted the comment.
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November 21st, 2011 at 9:16 am 61
@DEFAULT NAME: Oops re-read paradox's comment. I agree with you, under-the-table is not a big component from what I've seen. Cities make too much money from permits for them to let building go underground.
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November 21st, 2011 at 9:41 am 62
#58,
are you gonna try to figure out what color is the undergarment too? better clean up your basement or your mom is gonna be mad.
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November 21st, 2011 at 10:01 am 63
Buh Bye HAM
The level of property transactions in China's largest cities – down 39% Y/Y in October – has fallen well below the worst case scenario of stress tests carried out by banking regulators last April. An analyst who has seen the test documents says neither they nor the banks had enough appreciation of the extent to which loan collateral is tied to the value and turnover of real estate.
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November 21st, 2011 at 10:09 am 64
@McLovin: I'm not convinced capital flows have reversed yet. Things change quickly but there are lots of things that could be done to reignite China's bubble.
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November 21st, 2011 at 10:10 am 65
Friday + Today:
New Listings 298
Price Changes 197
Sold Listings 240
Today only:
New Listings 182
Price Changes 119
Sold Listings 135
TI:15259
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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November 21st, 2011 at 10:30 am 66
CBC: Scrapping HST taking longer than expected
Ruh-roh!
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November 21st, 2011 at 10:34 am 67
@McLovin:
Don't forget to post links to all reports of China's implosion so that we can enjoy them to the fullest.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45393635
Thanks.
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November 21st, 2011 at 10:37 am 68
@jesse:
If it takes a few months longer that's not a problem as we could then scrap the HST, the liberals and Krusty Clark all in one go.
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November 21st, 2011 at 10:44 am 69
November 2011 month-end projections
Days elapsed so far 14
Days missing 0
Days remaining 7
5 Day Moving Average: Sales 120
5 Day Moving Average: Listings 146
SALES
Sales so far 1698
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 840
Projected month end total 2538 +/- 125
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 2472
Projection for rest of month (using 5day MA) 1021
Projected month end total 3493 +/- 308
Sell-list so far 68.7%
Projected month-end sell-list 72.7%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of October 31, 2011 15377
MoI at this sales pace 6.06
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November 21st, 2011 at 11:11 am 70
@signallingthetop:
I will humbly leave this here with you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZDdcO4_5wA
Great find.
Eurovision finals here we come.
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November 21st, 2011 at 11:27 am 71
@signallingthetop: If that doesn't say "Best Place on Earth", I don't know what does.
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November 21st, 2011 at 11:36 am 72
The mortgage guarantee, the first time such a scheme has been attempted in the UK, will result in lenders providing loans with significantly lower deposits than the 20 per cent or more that is typically demanded. The taxpayer, however, could be liable for losses in the event that a home is repossessed.
Taxpayer to take on mortgage risks of first-time buyers
Don't even get me started……..RTP
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November 21st, 2011 at 11:57 am 73
@ReadyToPop:
Whilst it's the first time that the government will be guaranteeing mortgages, it's not the first time that downpayments of less than 20% have been around in the UK. 105% mortgages at 6-7x income weren't unheard of in the early 2000s – you know, the sort of levels that some say the Canadian banks would never risk themselves if it weren't for the CMHC.
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November 21st, 2011 at 12:05 pm 74
@ReadyToPop:
What, a conservative government trying to make it easier for anyone to get a mortgage with very little money?
I've never seen anything like this before.
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November 21st, 2011 at 12:13 pm 75
More "for sale" signs isn't a bad thing…..more supply = lower prices. What do I know? Maybe I'm just too old fashioned….thats the old econ 101 way of thinking.
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November 21st, 2011 at 12:33 pm 76
@vreaa: Did you see that she's singing in her car as well? Just like the realtors!
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November 21st, 2011 at 12:42 pm 77
@signallingthetop: Wow!
Reminds me of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlPs95dgRYw
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November 21st, 2011 at 12:46 pm 78
@Best place on meth:
It was the Labour government that presided over the UK boom.
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:03 pm 79
@bubbly: Hey, she's actually a recidivist!
http://youtu.be/8Lh9JrCB0qM
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:06 pm 80
@signallingthetop:
Why? Why did you do that to us? Do you have no mercy? Next time at least give us a warning.
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:14 pm 81
@Makaya:
Good God! Your not actually telling us that you watched that whole thing are you?
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:20 pm 82
@Bailing in BC: No, I'm not masochist. It takes about 1 minute to get there… I know, even 1 minute is painful…
The melody is actually stuck in my head…. "Vancouverrrrrrrrrr"
By the way, on her second video, a commented said: "Um the weird thing is that she's my music teacher…." LMAO!
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:22 pm 83
@Bailing in BC: I watched the whole thing. It's too fascinating!
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:33 pm 84
Vancouverrrrr, "The riot" version: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTGPbFMSCrE
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November 21st, 2011 at 1:47 pm 85
@signallingthetop: HILARIOUS. Spat out my tea when I got to the rap.
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November 21st, 2011 at 4:35 pm 86
The anecdotes about pizza delivery boys and shoe shiners giving advices hit home for me in 2007.
Staying at the Sheraton in Edmonton, the bell boy actually told me about luxury condos coming up down the street. Starting from 450 large he said. It's a good investment because they're going to put a Sobeys on the ground floor he says.
Anyway, we all know what happened after.
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November 21st, 2011 at 6:13 pm 87
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/11/21/canada-in…
I loled
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November 21st, 2011 at 7:34 pm 88
@signallingthetop: haters gonna hate
I'll take that over Realtors in cars. If Ian Watt starts giving his updates in spoken word I might change my mind
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November 21st, 2011 at 7:35 pm 89
@jesse:
I disagree completely. Income inequality has been growing faster in the US than here – including post 2005 – and look what has happened to their RE market.
RE markets are supported from the bottom. The rich getting richer can result in a few choice neighbourhoods getting more expensive, but that's all.
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November 21st, 2011 at 7:42 pm 90
@DEFAULT NAMEe:
"t was the Labour government that presided over the UK boom."
Actually it goes all the way back to Margaret Thatcher and her privatization of council housing and war on renters. This "ownership society" merged into the global housing bubble post-2000.
The point is that the UK's new Conservative government still doesn't get it and thinks the solution to the UK's RE addiction is more RE addiction, instead of building a real economy.
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November 21st, 2011 at 9:06 pm 91
@patriotz: The post was more suggesting that income inequality gives those without the means the drive to take bigger risks to compete through debt accumulation.
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November 21st, 2011 at 9:19 pm 92
@jesse:
From the article:
Tsur misses the obvious again. A tremendous amount of new low end rental accommodation is being built – secondary suites.
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November 21st, 2011 at 9:33 pm 93
75 ReadyToPop Says: "More “for sale” signs isn’t a bad thing…..more supply = lower prices."
When a market generates that supply, of course. Cause and effect, buyers aren't paying the old asking prices. When it's Developer Dave's "Don't Call It Corporate Welfare" program of land handouts to his pals, prices could be anywhere.
Econ 101: it's not applicable to command economies.
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November 21st, 2011 at 11:46 pm 94
Tsur Somerville: “No one builds crappy new buildings,”
Pretty much everything built in Vancouver is crappy. They just market them as luxury and charge luxury prices.
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November 21st, 2011 at 11:49 pm 95
@fixie guy:
"Econ 101: it’s not applicable"
LOL, in other word it's different here.
Supply/demand matters in every housing market. Vancouver is no different.
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November 22nd, 2011 at 6:02 am 96
[...] had in my mind for not disclosing such “details”. – from Makaya at VREAA 20 Nov 2011 [who cited 604serf at VCI 20 Nov 2011 ("Really, “interview” someone who works in Condo Marketing about how they’re buying a [...]
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November 22nd, 2011 at 6:53 am 97
@patriotz: … “No one builds crappy new buildings,” he says. “The housing supply of the poor are old buildings.”
Tsur misses the obvious again. A tremendous amount of new low end rental accommodation is being built – secondary suites….
Not to mention that almost everything built these days is crappy.
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November 22nd, 2011 at 6:59 am 98
Anyone see today's hilarious Vancouver Sun editorial telling readers, in advance of Black Friday sales in the US, how it's more expensive to shop in the US.
Good grief! Is there anything in that fish wrap even remotely reflective of the truth?. I'm beginning to question if the Lions really are in Grey cup this weekend.
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November 22nd, 2011 at 1:20 pm 99
[...] had in my mind for not disclosing such “details”. – from Makaya at VREAA 20 Nov 2011 [who cited 604serf at VCI 20 Nov 2011 ("Really, “interview” someone who works in Condo Marketing about how they’re buying a [...]
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