A very sensible forecast from Tsur Sommerville:
“We start off by saying I have no idea,” Somerville told the Georgia Straight in a phone interview. For him, forecasting is a risky business because “you’re wrong more often, even if you’re intelligent”.
An economist who earned his PhD from Harvard University, Somerville said that he prefers to evaluate what others have projected for the new year.
“The general trend seems to be that it’s going to be a slower market than 2011, and I think the combination of lingering economic unease and uncertainty is consistent with that,” the UBC academic explained. “The other thing is 2011—if you take away Richmond, the West Side [of Vancouver], and West Vancouver—was not some amazing prices-going-through-the-ceiling kind of year. In general for most places, things are going to look like 2011. Maybe a little bit slower.”
Asked about the biggest risk to the market, Somerville responded: “The economy, the economy, and the economy.”
Full article in the Georgia Straight.