Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time o’ the week again and that means it’s time for our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic thread. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Mortgage debt growth slows
BC has highest consumer debt
How to pay back $1.6 billion HST cash
Trouble at Pantages
BC families squeezed in economic vice
Four out of five workers want a different job
Three out of four in BC want a different government
Housing bubble discussion on CBC radio

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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CanuckDownUnder
Member
CanuckDownUnder

Australian RE prices have fallen once again, down another 0.2% in October. Just one more month of the "orderly" decline! Year to date prices are now down 2.8% (4.0% seasonally adjusted). Even Sydney is starting to slide with all five of the major capital cities in negative territory year over year:

Sydney -1.1%

Perth -5.0%

Adelaide -5.2%

Melbourne -5.4%

Brisbane -8.0%

The RBA cut the cash rate by 0.25 at the start of November but there won't be much impact on property, the banks have already been in fierce competition to attract the declining pool of mortgage mugs still out there. And governments aren't in position to throw money at the market like they did a couple of years ago, in fact the NSW the government is rolling back stamp duty concessions for first home buyers on January 1st. Should be an interesting 2012…

patriotz
Member
Thanks to Manson for this classic bubble denial piece: http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/a… The good news is that the situation in Toronto had nothing to do with speculation — which can lead to a bubble — but was driven by economic fundamentals. Oh, economic fundamentals like rents and incomes? Nope, neither are mentioned in the article. The author's definition of speculation is never given, but it's not the economic one, which is investors buying cash flow negative properties in the hope of coming ahead on appreciation. Which there are loads of in Toronto today. He also can't distinguish between demand for shelter, which is reflected in rents, and speculative demand, which is reflected in prices. So he arrives at the circular argument that demand is high because prices are high so there is no bubble. In truth, there was never a serious bubble… Read more »
patriotz
Member

Oh here's a brief bio of the author.

Robin Wiebe Economist (sic)

Robin is a contributor to the regular municipal forecasts. He also co-authors housing reports for external clients (now who might that be). Previously, Robin was a market analyst with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation for 18 years, serving in Thunder Bay, Windsor, Ontario and Ottawa. His expertise on the housing market was well-respected by both internal and external clients and earned him the position of CMHC spokesperson for the media.

http://www.conferenceboard.ca/topics/economics/st

Dave
Member

How's that bubble theory working out for ya?

Vini
Guest
Vini

@Dave: How's biz Dave? Would you recommend a young family buys into the current market wherever they can, even if it's a one bedroom condo with leak problems?

registered
Member
registered

4 Dave Says: "How’s that bubble theory working out for ya?"

Right on track Dave. Here are the Teranet HPI and Case Shiller indexes for some representative cities, normalized to show percentage increases since July 1990.

http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/3155/hpics2011

What do you think comrade, can we solve this with a centrally planned economic model whereby government bypasses markets and gives public property directly to commercial interests? Please send pamphlet.

Dave
Member

@Vini:

Biz is very good. I wouldn't recommend anybody buy a leaky condo unless they know what the likely repair and maintenance costs are going to be in the future. That needs to be accounted for in the price. I'll stick to my advice that I have given for quite a number of years now. Read below.

http://vancouvercondo.info/2008/12/are-we-there-y

Manson
Guest
Manson

The high end stuff has certainly skyrocketed but Kitsilano is beautiful..Mature trees..heritage homes..Close to the Beach. Same with Shaugnessy or West Vancouver. How "Cheap" do you guys think these places should be? Vancouver has been absolutely transformed in just the 15 years I've been here..I didn't see any Asians or East Indians in Seattle when I was there last week..There is no turning back the clock..There doesn't seem to be any scummy areas anymore every neighborhood has seen the homes remodeled and upgraded..I wouldn't buy in Vancouver right now(Plenty are though) but Pitt Meadows..Maple Ridge..Surrey don't seem that out to lunch considering the geography.
http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/71610662?access_

jesse
Member

@CanuckDownUnder: Demographia will be releasing its median price-income data sometime early in the new year. I expect Vancouver will now clearly overtake Sydney in being more unaffordable.

jesse
Member

@Manson: I thought you left.

My advice to everyone: save the food for the food bank, don't feed it to trolls.

registered
Member
registered

@8 Manson: Thanks Manson. Asians and East Indians, prices up; Mexicans, prices down. I'm learning a lot from your expertise.

jesse
Member

@fixie guy: It's all about supply, supply, supply.

Rip down the red tape. Building is glorious.

Troll
Guest
Troll

@Dave: That's a fantastic post, you could really whip the bears into a frenzy back then, especially Drachen. If only people knew that your views at the time were too BEARISH.

I'll just fill in the standard bear replies to your bubble theory post, to save some time:

– Bears only have to be right once, Bulls have to be right all the time

– It's not different here from Detroit/Miami/Phoenix etc.

– The market was saved by interest rate cuts in 2009, a bullet nobody predicted. But this time they are really really out of bullets, promise

patriotz
Member

@Dave:

I wouldn’t recommend anybody buy a leaky any condo unless they know what the likely repair and maintenance costs are going to be in the future.

Better. After all, every leaky condo started out as a non-leaky condo.

Of course, I'd also tell them to look into that little issue of rental value versus ownership costs.

space889
Member
space889

@Manson: Check around Redmond and Mercer Island. MS hires a lot of mainlanders to work there now. A friend told me that there is like around 30% Chinese populations – immigrants and twinkles.

N
Guest
N

WSJ weighs in on the chances of a hard landing for China's RE.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Unemployment stats for November.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/unemployment-

Manson
Guest
Manson

Redmond WA RE looks pretty healthy to me…
http://www.shopallredmondhomes.com/search/page/1

paulb.
Guest
paulb.
patriotz
Member

@Manson:

Well if by "healthy" you mean halfway reasonable, yes.

http://www.shopallredmondhomes.com/WA/Redmond/542

If a place like this came down to $500K in Richmond, or even Tsawassen, we'd be seeing a bigger bloodbath than even many bears expect.

But then again, what does Redmond have going for it except you know what.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@paulb.:

Thanks, Paul.

SFH: +0.6%

Condo: -0.7%

T/H: -1.6%

All: -0.1%

Dave
Member
@Troll: Thanks. It's too bad Pope has this silly voting system because many of my gems were voted down, so you can no longer see them. I think I deserve an exemption for a couple reasons. Firstly, I have the best long term track record for predicting and explaining this market. Secondly, I am polite and don't attack the dummies who lash out at me. That posting three years ago was the most accurate prediction that anybody in Vancouver made for the market, including all the usual talking heads. It wouldn't even say my prediction was too bearish. I called the bottom almost exactly and I also called the turnaround. Once the recovery had a couple months under it, I said the market would take out the prior peak. I even made a bet with a well known poster back… Read more »
Patsan
Guest
Patsan

Dave,

Are you saying you are different here?

registered
Member
registered

@22 Dave: "Secondly, I am polite and don’t attack the dummies who lash out at me."

Coupling 'polite' and not attacking 'dummies' in one sentence is sublime troll-fu. You're my favourite crazy person.

onenangryslav2
Guest
onenangryslav2

@Dave: One should give credit where credit is due. Kudos to you, Dave. I'll admit that I've stopped making predictions about the timing of the market in Vancouver (Canada). All I know is that the market will tank some day.

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