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Friday Free-for-all!

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It’s that time of the week again! Lets do our end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend. Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

–BOC warns condo boom could be ending
–Euro crisis puts Canada at risk
–Jesse on the BOC over at Housing Analysis
–Two of the ten richest postal codes are in Vancouver
–We have the poorest postal code too, yay diversity!
–Low income housing at OV comes with high water bills
–CIBC economist warns global slowdown of ‘Biblical scale’

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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patriotz

@WhatProblem:

"Even if prices drop back to say Seattle levels…It’s still going to take a fair size downpayment and a decent 2 income household to buy a place…"

Which is why Seattle still has a lot more to fall (it's one of the US markets that is still a lot more expensive than 10 years ago), and why Seattle's present prices (which are about 1/2 Vancouver's) should not be taken as a floor for what's in store for Vancouver.

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Devore

@WhatProblem: Not everyone is a starving student. You're just painting all people with the same brush.

I recently sold a $400,000 condo I bought with 25% down, on a single income that's not even that spectacular. (Bought for somewhat under $400,000, if you're wondering. No, I didn't win the HAM lottery.)

If I could buy same condo for $250,000, I would very seriously consider, owning would be WAY cheaper than renting, assuming rents don't collapse at the same rate as prices. Only reason I don't say I would buy instantly, is because I am becoming somewhat wary of strata properties.

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WhatProblem

Even if prices drop back to say Seattle levels…It's still going to take a fair size downpayment and a decent 2 income household to buy a place…Can anyone here afford a $250,000 Condo in Vancouver?

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space889

@kansai92: Why aren't stuff like this illegal and developers and trades sued into non-existences? yes I know all buildings are done with number companies that has no assets and are shut down ASAP after the building is sold. But that's really nothing that can't be fixed by law to prevent such practices or simply makes the parent company liable for any products they sell that has their name on it.

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space889

@VMD: Man, that's going to really suck for the REIN numbers! Especially the real investors who are planning to get 1 property minimum per month.

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Makaya

"Three Men Charged In Federal Indictment Alleging Commercial Bribery" "Two Chinese nationals and a Chambersburg resident currently residing in Poland have been indicted by a grand jury in Harrisburg on charges involving the offering and accepting of almost $100,000 in bribes and kickbacks related to fraud committed against a Camp Hill business. United States Attorney Peter J. Smith announced that Wojciech Tomasz Malinowski, 54, formerly of Chambersburg, Yuhua Tang, 59, New York, NY, and Li Jian, 43, of China were indicted on November 30, 2011 on two counts of wire fraud, interstate travel in aid of racketeering and criminal conspiracy. According to the indictment, Li Jian worked for Sinorail Information Engineering Group (SEIG), d/b/a Sinorail, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Chinese Ministry of Rails (MOR), a member of the State Council of the People's Republic of China (PRC). The… Read more »

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Kingston

@chilled: This is interesting and informative, can we post it to the front page?

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Patiently Waiting

Just found this on Craigslist:

http://www.hellovancity.com/2011/12/11/metro-vanc…

Starts out with the usual crapola about HAM. But I found this paragraph interesting:

This is a pattern that BC has seen before. During both the Hong Kong and Taiwan immigration waves, certain neighbourhoods in Vancouver appreciated in value at much faster rates than the surrounding suburbs and the rest of BC. Eventually, however, the rest of the Province caught up as Sellers downsized or moved to other areas of the province, pushing up prices. This same pattern has yet to occur this cycle, but the influx of foreign capital is expected to counteract news of the fragile global economy."

The REIC is clearly mystified as to why this next stage hasn't happened yet. They really expect HAM to somehow boost prices all over BC. Did this really happen last time?

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Condo-Info

New Water Front Condominium in Toronto Eau Du Soleil

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Anonymous

here is your chance: join the major bikelane for a solution of affordable housing!

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Keeping An Eye On Th

http://www.globalnews.ca/economy/6442538452/story…

>>>>>>>>Will the red-hot Canadian housing bubble burst?<<<<<<<<<<

"Gregory Klump, the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Chief Economist thinks the housing market is safe. "

“Home prices are plateauing, not crashing. You’d need a trigger, like massive layoffs or a jump in interest rates neither of which is in the cards,” he says.

No Gregory, those are not necessary for the inevitable collapse.

Those conditions might exist AFTER the bubble bursts.

But you know that, you know also who butters your bread.

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Bby Boy

You can thank the Olympics building boom and all the developers who bought the land cheap under the depression era 90's and then build the condo's with lowest bid labour.Overpriced them with pie in the sky marketing graducates and when the Vanoc marketing machine rolled out the red carpet.The Media was showcasing: look at this happy couple who bought in at $499,000.

"Buy now" says Ozzie Jurock, every week on Global news. Where is Ozzie Jurock now? He's in court for defrauding his investors!!! And Gordon Campbell simply skipped the country!

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bbb

you are truly brainwashed..It is western oligarchs and elite preparing masses fir the war to distract populace from their plundering of economy.

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Makaya

"The leaked State Department cable in question was sent to Washington from Ottawa. It shows that one federal Canadian official told the Americans that his “hands were full targeting hundreds of mostly Iranian and Chinese foreigners” involved in setting up front companies in order to procure sensitive technologies."

"A similar cable from 2008 remarked that the number of Iranian students studying in Canada had doubled over the past five years, with many expats gravitating toward the study of “physics, mechanical engineering and biology” as well as nuclear engineering. This cable noted that several Ontario universities had teamed up to produce a course in designing nuclear reactors."

This is what happens when you implement mass immigration from dictatorial countries without proper safeguards in place…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/us-w…

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RippedtoShit

Folks

The crash HAS STARTED, and will pick up pace over the coming months.

Watch for a decline of 10% from peak by June.

Losers.

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Makaya

@fixie guy: I agree with you, but as you pointed out, the starting point for Vancouver was already an inflated market, which means that, in terms of value (amount of additional $$ required to buy a place), Vancouver grew faster over that period of time. A good way to show that would be to have a graph comparing price/income during that period of time.

I’ll see if I can find this graph or, if not, I’ll try to get the data and plot it.

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frank

Immigrants built this country. South Asians worked the timber mills, Chinese collies built the rail-roads, Italians and Eastern Europeans logged the woods. They have built many of our great companies from RIM to Wilan to Future Shop, Shopper’s etc

Unless you are First Nations, We are all just a few generations from immigrants who came here with nothing but hope.

These recent wealthy new-comers are NOT immigrants.

They have just brought their big haul of dough, often ill-gotten, to hid here. They dont build anything just buy it up like locusts with money. Enough said.

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fixie guy

@ Makaya: Vancouver isn't the city with the highest rate of appreciation in Canada, at least not for the last 12 years. Teranet provides a downloadable Excel sheet of their data. The earliest data available for some cities is July 1990. Data for all cities isn't available until Mar 1999, with Edmonton the last added. The graph linked below shows the percentage increases for Teranet tracked cities using Mar 1999 as the 100% reference point. It clearly shows Canadian markets have been anything but local in their appreciation and, surprise, Vancouver hasn't led the pack. Not close. I think it also supports the argument I've made in the past that Van's exceptionally high current levels are the result of not having totally wound down from the temporary appreciation caused by Hong Kong's repatriation, so it will hurt the most by… Read more »

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Patiently Waiting

Oh this is gonna be a good read. 🙂

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/the-king-of-…

"Before the market crashed and home prices tumbled, before federal investigators showed up and hauled away the community records, before her property managers pled guilty for conspiring to rig neighborhood elections, and before her real estate lawyer allegedly tried to commit suicide by overdosing on drugs and setting fire to her home, Wanda Murray thought that buying a condominium in Las Vegas was a pretty good idea."

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Patiently Waiting

Less able to tap home equity, real estate speculators resort to private money borrowing. http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/ite… While the decision to withdraw CMHC backing for HELOCs and shorten the life of an insured mortgage to 30 year had some impact, expert investors have suggested the change around refis is most to blame for cramping their ability to tap into current holdings in order to add to them.The poll did not, in fact, ask that question. Still, many are finding new ways to come up with the cash to further invest in Canada’s property markets, which have seen positive price growth despite the slowing economy and increasing uncertainty. Private-lending funds are only one of those new avenues, says one investor and mortgage broker. “Many real estate investors are unaware that (individuals) can use RRSPs or any other registered funds in debt-related vehicles, such… Read more »

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Anonymous

@Lucy:

like a lot of places in the lower mainland,

New West used to be a nice place to live.

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jesse

@VMD: "The changes signal a clear indication that Scotiabank has a decreased appetite for real estate investors who have significant exposure to the residential real estate investment market"

In completely unrelated news, the government wants banks to perform more broad-based risk analysis. It's possible that Scotiabank might be starting to slowly turn its rudder towards this goal and it's not exclusively related to acute credit market uncertainties. In other words this might be more permanent than people think.

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kansai92

@chilled:

I can tell you this, even luxury condos in downtown and Yaletown have the same issues.

These are building selling for over $1000 a square foot.

Pipes often crack and burst causing flooding.

The insurance deductibles alone are nothing to sniff at.

I owned a condo one in Yaletown. Have rented in a bunch of others.

Having had many a discussion with building staff in various complexes, I will never buy into strata condo/apartment every again.

Caveat Emptor my friends.

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Lucy

"high end New West condo"

Sorry, where is there anything high end in New West? Heavenly day, NOT!!!

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VMD

[Scotiabank tightens mortgage lending rules for rental units] December 09, 2011 Scotiabank has long been an investor-friendly lender. But recently, Scotia Mortgage Authority (SMA) made its rental financing program notably more restrictive. SMA now: 1. Limits borrowers to five rental properties, including those financed elsewhere (there was no official limit previously) 2. Restricts rental mortgages to 5-year closed terms (fixed or variable) 3. Upcharges the rate for rental deals (whereas before it didn’t) On a positive note, SMA says it has loosened its net worth requirement on rental applications (which is now 10% of each property’s value, up to $50,000 per property). …. Apart from the reasoning above, Calum says the changes may also be risk-driven. “There is a growing concern that there is a potentially unhealthy demand for residential real estate investments,” he said. “The changes signal a clear… Read more »

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