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rp1
Guest
rp1

Bah, the data is a wash.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

Mortgage Misery in Oz

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16062699

One in four in trouble.

asiaman
Guest
asiaman

well i am living here most of the year and not only are the sales looking horrible, the overpriced rentals are too. im in oak bay and down the road there is a while house for 2gs a month that has been sitting there looking sad and empty since I got here many many months ago. there is little to support vancouver and even less to support victoria, (although I like living here loads more) bring on the correction…

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Righto! And jolly well time!

jesse
Member

Add in inflation. Whither rich… what is their deus again?

Manna from heaven
Guest
Manna from heaven

Timber! Home prices are crashing in China’s ‘ghost city’

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/07/timb

Jim
Guest
Jim

As an ex-Victoria resident, it always seemed to me that salaries out on the Island are quite low, and good jobs hard to find. True, there are some retirees headed that way, but there are quite a few people who are house rich and cash poor. I'm talking people in Oak Bay sitting on million dollar homes, while subsisting on meagre (and diminishing) pensions.

Great place to own a retirement or funeral home, though.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

From FishyRE blog this morning:

Okanagan: MOI at 15 months. Shuswap: MOI at 20 months…

0x13
Guest
0x13
@rp1 I agree with you the data is a wash. In fact if you compare: Nov 2011: http://www.vreb.org/pdf/historical_statistics/MSS… and Nov 2010: http://vreb.org/pdf/historical_statistics/MSS1011… Nov 2011 looks a little better in terms of number of units sold (271 vs 240). The median price is the same at $530k. I have no idea why people voted you down. Some will point that the avg price for SFH in Nov 2010 is higher ($636k) vs Nov 2011 ($592k) – that's a 7% decline YOY. However I believe that this number is not as strong as it appears. There are a low number of high end properties being sold in the region and variation in the number of these sales can make the average go up and down by quiet a bit. In this case if one were to remove the Highlands and Water front… Read more »
Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Victoria is crashing and so is Richmond, already down about 6% since May.

Those offshore pricks won't be able to manipulate it again with so much inventory on the market.

http://www.rebgv.org/housing-price-index?region=R

frank
Guest
frank

@0×13:

If you look at fish's analysis he was comparing the numbers to 2009 too.

Thre is no doubt they are down. Here's his numbers, the first lsit is the average price.

Nov 2009 = $617,987

Nov 2010 = $636,557

Nov 2011 = $592,034

Median 2009 = $555K

Median 2010 = $530K

Median 2011 = $530K

Troll
Guest
Troll

"Victoria Crashing"

Median 2010 = $530K

Median 2011 = $530K

April 1st today?

Anonymouse
Guest
Anonymouse

@Makaya:

"From FishyRE blog this morning: Okanagan: MOI at 15 months. Shuswap: MOI at 20 months…"

And from the same blog in July 2010 :

Shushwap: MOI at 29 months

http://fishyre.blogspot.com/2010/07/okanagan-in-f

The Leak
Guest
The Leak

Hey Troll boy! It's dying. Deal with it big-fella. I've already had two offers in the past month by folks I know to take over their second property with a rent to own option. As the job market continues to get tougher, I'll need the freedom to relocate without the hassle of a mortgage.

frank
Guest
frank

@Troll:

Are you all trying to be dumb today?

Median SFH LOST $25K in two years.

Average SFH LOST $45K from last year and $25K from two years ago.

If that ain't crashing, I don't know what is!

2010 was the peak for Victoria and we are already below 2009 numbers. Them's the facts.

Troll
Guest
Troll

@frank: Hey Doom Pumper, a 5% yearly drop followed by a flat year is not a crash by any rational stretch of the imagination. Today's post is weak and brings down the credibility of this blog one more notch. It'd be nice if some of the smarter bears on here also discredited this garbage.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@DEFAULT NAMEe:

"And from the same blog in July 2010 :"

To be fair, let's compare MOI # at the same time last year. So here it is:

End of November 2010: MOI Shuswap: 27
http://fishyre.blogspot.com/2010_12_01_archive.ht

Situation is moving from desperate in 2010 to dramatic this year. Such an improvement…

I don't have the numbers, but it would be interesting to see how average prices have reacted to such high levels of MOI.

Troll
Guest
Troll

For the "Inflation and Deflation at the same time" crowd…

http://www.cnbc.com//id/45476620

What the inflationistas are missing is that Europe is actually suffering from a profound contraction of its money supply. This contraction is crippling the banking system and will bring the economy to a grinding halt if it is not allieviated.

It’s easy to miss the contraction of the money supply because it involves a destruction of financial assets that we do not usually think of as “money” but that, in fact, operate as money — or did until relatively recently.

frank
Guest
frank

@Troll:

Your comment shows what a neophyte you are.

A 5% drop is not very much in the stock-market.

In the RE market it is a big deal.

It means people who bought with 10% down have lost half their equity.

It means that in REAL terms, ie accounting for inflation, the price dropped nearer 10%.

If you were an investor leveraged up, you would have done better putting your money in the bank than buying and renting out for 2-3% net of expenses and then see a 5% drop in 2 years wipe that out.

Can it be reversed next month- you bet, but we will deal with the numbers we have.

2010 was the top for RE in Victoria so far and prices are now below 2009…deal with it!

Anonymouse
Guest
Anonymouse

@Makaya:

"I don’t have the numbers, but it would be interesting to see how average prices have reacted to such high levels of MOI."

I agree. Even more interesting would be to them extrapolate those changes to Vancouver, which still has an MOI of around 6-7.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@DEFAULT NAMEe: It didn't take me too long to find out about the prices in Shuswap area. Maybe they explain why the lower inventory numbers…

Price Change YOY:

Residential:

average: -8.15%

median: -9.12%

Apartment:

average: -22.57%

median: -27.63%

Townhouse:

average: -21.09%

median: -20.85%

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Makaya: What's going on in the OK is a HUGE BC story, and yet I don't recall seeing one story about it in the past few years in the local MSM.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

"House prices are down YOY for two years now. Condos are down YOY and flat over two. Attached is down 15% over two years. Yikes."

Too bad Victoria doesn't have the sea and mountains and to bad they're not running out of land, and too bad they have less rain than Vancouver (10 months vs 10 1/2 months) otherwise their prices would be rising forever.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Only 3 and 1/2 more weeks until inventory starts to balloon.

And from a much higher starting point than last January. 🙂

Anonymouse
Guest
Anonymouse

@Makaya:

"Maybe they explain why the lower inventory numbers…"

Not sure I understand. What happened to the 'rush for the exists'? Shouldn't inventory increase along with prices under that scenario?

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