2012: Another recession NOT coming.

Breath easy my friends, Vancouver Sun says no second recession in 2012:

The Conference Board of Canada, for instance, ruled out a double-dip recession for Canada, although it qualified the forecast, noting that it relies on the assumption that the European Union will successfully resolve its sovereign debt problems

BMO slightly more pessimistic, but still 60% no problem!

BMO puts the odds of the U.S. slipping into recession next year at roughly 40 per cent with depressed consumer confidence and ongoing foreclosures. A financial shock from Europe could tip the U.S. economy over the edge.

RBC thinks we should have kept the HST:

Royal Bank of Canada noted in its provincial outlook that the rejection of the harmonized sales tax in last summer’s referendum has added to the down-side risk in its forecast as the return to the provincial sales tax and the shift of the tax burden to business could slow the pace of business investment and job creation. RBC has lowered its growth estimate for 2012 to 2.3 per cent from an earlier forecast of three per cent.

But on a bright note we get those seaspan jobs!

Seaspan’s federal shipbuilding contract and the provincial government’s commitment to bring new mines into production should boost B.C. employment; how-ever, these will take time to materialize. Nevertheless, resource industries hold the most promise for robust growth for the rest of this decade with the greatest share of benefits skewed, for a change, to northern regions of the province.

Now which of these forecasters was most accurate going into 2008?

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rp1
Guest
rp1

We can float along on 1% interest rates for a while yet.

logic
Guest
logic

yup.

but 1% interest rates are still too high when you lose your job….

chilled
Member
chilled

I hope for 2012 the comments on VCI pick it up a notch.

Reading through these comments is often akin to waiting behind 4 middle aged asian ladies at the grocery store, perusing through the apple bin, looking for the perfect one.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

The assumption that the European Union will successfully resolve its sovereign debt problems?

Good luck with that. If they knew how to solve their debt problems they would have done it by now.

Europe and China are both dead meat in 2012.

logic
Guest
logic

the euro debt issues are going to blow sky high this year. it is not they they don't know how to solve the problems, it is that the problems are unsolvable without massive defaults.

read Mish's blog today for some fascinating insight into Spain's "solution" – raise taxes, slash spending, and STILL see a increasing deficit…

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Breaking News!

the prophet has predicted that van re will fall 50-66%. we are still waiting for the prophet to publish the dates. the prophet is still reading TA charts…more to come!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Best place on meth: "Good luck with that. If they knew how to solve their debt problems they would have done it by now."

The question is how long can they kick the can down the road. Will 2012 be the day of reckoning? Who knows but it will come. I have been surprised how long the US has DELAYED the depression. Can Europe do the same? Can China? At some point the house of cards collapses.

Devore
Member
Devore

@DEFAULT NAME: Predicting irrational behaviour? You'd have to be a prophet. With balls.

Anonymouse
Guest
Anonymouse

@Best place on meth:

I think Greece will officially default (they basically have already), and will leave the Euro. Years from now evidence will emerge that they were kicked out. Aside from that, Europe will recover in 2012.

Annonymous
Guest
Annonymous

Vancouver looking more like Paradise every day.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-03/more-power-

bbb
Guest
bbb

"I have been surprised how long the US has DELAYED the depression."

what do you mean by delayed? if they would report REAL instead of bogus numbers they are in depression. I am in Montana on ski holiday right now and the whole resort is in Chapter 7 bankruptcy. For Lease/Sale signs are everywhere. Ski lifts are running empty. But you would not know that if you are watching the news. Official line is that we are in recovery.

logic
Guest
logic

default (well named) – you do realize that of Greece defaults, the French and german banks will get spanked, and this will make a European recovery in 2012 much more unlikely. Try thinking before working those typing fingers.

Anonymouse
Guest
Anonymouse

@logic:

They've already had a write-down of 50% of their debts, what's that if not a default by another name?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@Annonymous:

>>>Vancouver looking more like Paradise every day.<<<

http://news.sympatico.ctv.ca/home/metro_vancouver

That's right you worthless cheerleader, this is exactly what paradise is supposed to look like.

Annonymous
Guest
Annonymous

@BPOM…Why don't you move to Edmonton then and do us all a Big favor…you'd fit right in.
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/murders+close

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

BPOM can never move to anywhere away from his mama's basement. he needs breastfed three times a day.

chilled
Member
chilled

Ladies, ladies, please step aside, I just want a couple of bananas.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Real estate loses it's appeal as preferred investment among Chinese.

http://shanghai.villable.com/market_commentary_li

Our local cheerleaders will become suicidal if HAM disappears.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Inventory
Guest
Inventory

Detached (Home) Sales for Dec 2011 vs Dec 2010

New Westminster -76%

Ladner -36%

Port Coquitlam -44%

Richmond -52%

Vancouver East +11%

Vancouver West -46%

West Vancouver -24%

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@bbb: "what do you mean by delayed?"

It is going to get much worse in the US.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@logic: "default (well named) – you do realize that of Greece defaults, the French and german banks will get spanked, and this will make a European recovery in 2012 much more unlikely. Try thinking before working those typing fingers."

"of" Greece defaults? Um Greece has defaulted.

Curiosity
Guest
Curiosity

No recession? Isn't that what they said before the inevitable collapse of America? How soon we forget? Canada has all the makings of the US and more.

oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2

@Curiosity: I distinctly remember during the latter part of Bush, Jr.'s second term that cokehead (and Republican shill) Larry Kudlow kept on referring to the US economy as the "Goldilocks economy."

When our economy eventually goes down the crapper, it'll be "hoocouldanode" time all over again.

registered
Member
registered

23 oneangryslav2 Says: "When our economy eventually goes down the crapper, it’ll be “hoocouldanode” time all over again."

That suit's played out. After the better part of a decade watching one country after another drop, Harper will be hard pressed to escape 'youshouldanode'. I'm sticking with them blaming 'outside events' like Europe or China for blowing over the house of cards. Hold an ear to recent government announcements and it's already clearly audible.

Dave
Member

@bbb:

What do you mean by real numbers?

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