2012: Another recession NOT coming.

Breath easy my friends, Vancouver Sun says no second recession in 2012:

The Conference Board of Canada, for instance, ruled out a double-dip recession for Canada, although it qualified the forecast, noting that it relies on the assumption that the European Union will successfully resolve its sovereign debt problems

BMO slightly more pessimistic, but still 60% no problem!

BMO puts the odds of the U.S. slipping into recession next year at roughly 40 per cent with depressed consumer confidence and ongoing foreclosures. A financial shock from Europe could tip the U.S. economy over the edge.

RBC thinks we should have kept the HST:

Royal Bank of Canada noted in its provincial outlook that the rejection of the harmonized sales tax in last summer’s referendum has added to the down-side risk in its forecast as the return to the provincial sales tax and the shift of the tax burden to business could slow the pace of business investment and job creation. RBC has lowered its growth estimate for 2012 to 2.3 per cent from an earlier forecast of three per cent.

But on a bright note we get those seaspan jobs!

Seaspan’s federal shipbuilding contract and the provincial government’s commitment to bring new mines into production should boost B.C. employment; how-ever, these will take time to materialize. Nevertheless, resource industries hold the most promise for robust growth for the rest of this decade with the greatest share of benefits skewed, for a change, to northern regions of the province.

Now which of these forecasters was most accurate going into 2008?

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RippedtoShit

Holy Shit, this could become a tsunami of downward prices, the whole fucking market could come apart, from Victoria to Whistler to the valley and into the fucking West Side paradise.

I seriously think we could see shit totally fall apart in a matter of MONTHS!!!!!!

Everyone "KNOWS" what this is, so as this starts to sweep through the streets the fucking wheels could come blowing off!

Bring it the fuck ON baby!

macho nacho

@Patiently Waiting: Not sure if the article was referring to numbers for office or retail space. But remember that from 2001 (dot.com bust) to about 2005, office rates were very weak due to businesses going belly up. Over that span, almost no new office inventory was added. With these unusually low office rates, tenants from outer areas began moving downtown to soak up inventory, driving rates up again. However, we're probably at the inflection point again, as higher rates and business failures are forcing companies to go back to the burbs. Note that landlords are always pretty slow to react to downward movements in demand. Retail is different. Many new condos downtown/GVRD put in ground floor retail and charged a premium for it. Some got away with it, others are still vacant. But retail is very weak, so expect landlords… Read more »

fixie guy

75 WFT? Says: "A memo goes out in every real estate office when sales are slow for their agents to go post on blogs…"

Or contract astroturf…. sorry, social marketing experts.

Best place on meth

@pipewrench:

It's no coincidence that manufacturing in the US is growing and in China it's shrinking.

If those jobs are created mainly in the south with their lower cost of living then $18 isn't that bad for unskilled labour.

Alabama is the new Guangdong.

pipewrench

http://marketmontage.com/2011/12/31/manufacturing

http://laboreducator.org/lt120102.htm

the new normal, jobs will return but at a much lower rate of pay.$15 dollars and hour is what Canada's manufacturing is facing so enjoy the debt party because middle class wages are going nowhere fast.

NoProblem.com

@WhatProblem.com:

"Don’t blow your load too quick there circle jerkers."

Don't worry, we'll wait for you to come over.

WhatProblem.com

Don't blow your load too quick there circle jerkers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-03/u-s-manu

Anonymous

why? because your head just came out from it? lol.

RippedtoShit

And wash your ass with soap this time.

VHB

Thanks very much Paulb. Your daily stats are fantastic. Looking forward to some inventory parties this year!

Anonymous

@Troll: Yeah, we wait with baited breath for the Sun to "comment" (as distinct from print verbatim, do no thinking, ask no questions).

frank

They must shit gold and piss whiskey for this amount of money

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canadian+CEO

RippedtoShit

Default,

Calm down.

Nervers are frayed, but for bears things are about to take a hard turn our way.

Cheer up.

Anonymous

RippedtoShit must be having pms but running out of $ to buy tampax. here is an idea: get some old newspaper!

Best place on meth

For reference, here's the first day of last year – no need for a 10K party this time around.

paulb. Says:

January 4th, 2011 at 5:43 pm

Its started…

New Listings 267

Price Changes 63

Sold Listings 88

9,435 listings; should be a great year of inventory parties.

RippedtoShit

Thanks PaulB.

Interesting. I wonder if we could conceivably move to a TEN PLUS MOI by the end of the month.

Trolls, eat shit.

RippedtoShit

Meth:

This ride could get very interesting very quickly.

Could we actually be in for a WARP SPEED CRASH?

paulb.

Here come the listings!

New Listings 259

Price Changes 61

Sold Listings 45

TI:10671

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

Facebook: http://tinyurl.com/pboenisch

Best place on meth

Holee shit.

41 houses listed in Richmond on just the first day of the year.

Zero sold.

WhatProblem

Vancouver will only get so "cheap".
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/WO-AH61

Devore

Of course prices have been dropping for months (at least since the mortgage rule changes), just certain zip codes (the expensive ones) didn't get the message. Now that they're on board, the regional average is getting dragged down.

WhatProblem

@RTS….Obsessed with Ass much?…Sheesh!

RippedtoShit

Troll,

Get some TP and learn to use it. Go back to your own country if you think using the same hand you eat with to wipe your ass with is kosher.

Dipshit!

RippedtoShit

Whatproblem,

I think China will do fine, with some bumps along the way. One of them is real estate, and that will sour them on this asset class to a degree.

Also, they view "face" as ultra important (bunch of wankers/crooks), so once Vancouver's slide becomes visible from space (like the great wall) the pride of owning an empty money pit in vancouver will dissipate somewhat, and ass jabbers like Troll will get a spanking that they will remember for life.

Get it now?

RippedtoShit

Troll,

Your shit stinks (bad). You don't notice due to the fact that you've been breathing in your own putrid fumes for some time now.

Step back and you will see that I am illuminating the future for your dumb (ignorant/uneducated most likely) ass.

Cheer up, I will help where I can. You don't have much to work with, but we'll make the best of it asshole.