Breath easy my friends, Vancouver Sun says no second recession in 2012:
The Conference Board of Canada, for instance, ruled out a double-dip recession for Canada, although it qualified the forecast, noting that it relies on the assumption that the European Union will successfully resolve its sovereign debt problems
BMO slightly more pessimistic, but still 60% no problem!
BMO puts the odds of the U.S. slipping into recession next year at roughly 40 per cent with depressed consumer confidence and ongoing foreclosures. A financial shock from Europe could tip the U.S. economy over the edge.
RBC thinks we should have kept the HST:
Royal Bank of Canada noted in its provincial outlook that the rejection of the harmonized sales tax in last summer’s referendum has added to the down-side risk in its forecast as the return to the provincial sales tax and the shift of the tax burden to business could slow the pace of business investment and job creation. RBC has lowered its growth estimate for 2012 to 2.3 per cent from an earlier forecast of three per cent.
But on a bright note we get those seaspan jobs!
Seaspan’s federal shipbuilding contract and the provincial government’s commitment to bring new mines into production should boost B.C. employment; how-ever, these will take time to materialize. Nevertheless, resource industries hold the most promise for robust growth for the rest of this decade with the greatest share of benefits skewed, for a change, to northern regions of the province.
Now which of these forecasters was most accurate going into 2008?
