428 new listings, 65 sold in one day

According to Paulb Monday was our first day of over 400 new listings in 2012:

New Listings 428
Price Changes 64
Sold Listings 65

Know how many days in 2011 had more than 400 new listings? None.

And look what’s happening in Richmond courtesy of Inventory.

Richmond Jan 3-16
New Listings 534
Price Changes 77
Sold 86

Some interesting things happening in this market early on in the year. The worst january in the last 10 years was in 2009 which saw a 20% sales to list ratio (we usually see at least double that).

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Lilypad
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Lilypad

I love you, Pope!

and so it begins...
Member
and so it begins...

So… Am I a prick for having a smile from ear to ear after seeing the numbers today? maybe so…. But I don't feel all that guilty somehow. Ahhhhhhh…… so THIS is Schadenfreude!!

As a side note, anyone think well see a 100+ sale day as part of a "new year bump"??? How about a 200+ day?? In the absence of any spike over the next 2 weeks to support the HAM hypothesis, I'd say this puppy is just about over!!!

rp1
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rp1

In related news, a 10 year mortgage at 4% is the last call for retards.

blueskies
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blueskies

to quote that immortal bard

satv………

"like a kite to the moon"

except he was referring to prices
not listings……….

got popcorn?

jesse
Member

CNY is next week; there may be some listings brought forward to hit the real estate newspaper run this week. Still too early to call it IMO.

jesse
Member

Overnight rate unchanged, Bank of Canada expects debt-income ratios to rise. I think that is a signal that the government won't act to tighten credit, at least explicitly. I expect behind-the-scenes tightening is the primary mode by which credit will be contained, and it's likely already occurred in most part.

That's a big risk to take, to let debt balloon further, but hey nobody said being a minister of finance was easy!

rob
Guest
rob

Let me see…

Friday we had 12006 listings total (11993 according to PaulB but that # got bumped up later)

Then we added 428 new listings. There were 65 sales. Net add is then 363.

BUT PaulB reports total listings at 12194 for a net add of 188-200.

So where did the other 163-175 listings go? Were they terminated? Canceled? Relisted? This is not an insignificant number. There are about 175 listings missing from the total that have not been sold.

Paul… where did they go?

registered
Member
registered

6 jesse Says: "That’s a big risk to take, to let debt balloon further, but hey nobody said being a minister of finance was easy!"

If he's finding the burdens of responsibility difficult – and the shortcuts to date suggest so – I fully endorse relieving him with someone more capable of the heavy lifting required to act in Canada's best interests.

Apocarypse Mao
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Apocarypse Mao

Chinese New Year is early this year. They're hoping to cash in on vacationing Asians. It's their only hope.

paulb.
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paulb.

@rob:

Hello Rob, many listings are cancelled, terminated or expire every day. I count 80 of these yesterday.

Taking these 80 C/T/X into consideration, we're off about 80 from the TI number. I will look into this once when I get into the office.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

More important than listings is sales. Sure the inventory means something but if it is just listings increasing and sales are steady then don't get too excited. In 2008 it was sales that dried which increased inventory, not a massive rush to the exits with huge listing days. It could be lots of people fishing who really are not interested in selling unless they hit the jackpot. For example if there are 10 houses on a street for sale compared to 5 last year but only 5 are priced close to market value with the other 5 being way overpriced it does not put any downward pressure on prices.

We also may be seeing lots of cancellations and relists to freshen up the listing for 2012. An old trick by realtors (which of course doesn't do anything).

jesse
Member

@DEFAULT NAME: "it was sales that dried which increased inventory, not a massive rush to the exits with huge listing days"

IIRC listings were on the high side through the spring. It wasn't just low sales, there was some added impetus to sell also. This year looks very robust for listings, more so than 2008 was around this time.

For reasons I've outlined before, and to those who simply scratch their heads when looking at Vancouver from 38,000 feet, this isn't wholly surprising.

Best place on meth
Member
Active Member
Best place on meth

@jesse:

Definitely too early to call it but an intriguing trend so far nonetheless.

For reference, this was the same day last year which ended up being the highest listings day of January, 2011.

paulb. Says:

January 17th, 2011 at 5:45 pm

New Listings 292

Price Changes 62

Sold Listings 119

10294

jesse
Member

@Best place on meth: Highest listings day in January of last year was 290. The first half of Jan'11 averaged 76 sales and 224 newlists, the latter half averaged 112 sales and 259 newlists. Listings accelerated in the latter half of 2011.

I do think CNY has brought forward many newlists by a few weeks this year (CNY last year was Feb 3) but I doubt it fully explains the volume we're seeing.

jesse
Member

@jesse: *Latter half of January 2011

Makaya
Member
Makaya

HAM might not be coming this year after all…

""Unofficial" money fleeing China"

"a look at the rate of change shows that the year-over-year change in gaming revenues have been falling since peaking last summer" (…) [funny enough, wasn't last summer the peak of Vancouver RE market?]

"using the crude measure of Macau gaming revenues is to remain cautiously optimistic about the prospects of a Chinese soft landing in 2012. While there may be substantial funds leaving the country through Macau, the lack of acceleration in gaming revenues showing that the unofficial (and smart) money is not panicking over the situation in China."

http://tinyurl.com/7j2l4uy

VHB
Member
VHB

Jan-2012

Total days 21

Days elapsed so far 10

Weekends / holidays 6

Days missing 0

Days remaining 11

7 Day Moving Average: Sales 64

7 Day Moving Average: Listings 299

SALES

Sales so far 580

Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 706

Projected month end total 1286 +/- 183

NEW LISTINGS

Listings so far 2866

Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 3289

Projected month end total 6155 +/- 913

Sell-list so far 20.2%

Projected month-end sell-list 20.9%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

Inventory as of Jan 16, 2012 12194

MoI at this sales pace 9.48

crashcow
Member

@VHB: the last time MOI pierced through 10 was in summer 2008:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?k

The Leak
Guest
The Leak

gotta say folks. after the past few days of Paulb listings, I feel rejuvenated to follow this thread more regularly. Can't wait to see tonight's listings. I'm a pathetic little "bear." AIN'T IT GREAT?

VHB
Member
VHB

@crashcow: Yes. Unless inventory accumulation slows down a bunch or sales pick up a bunch over the next two weeks, then we should pierce 10.0 MoI by the end of the month.

In my MoI vs. price change model, MoI of 10 predicts a month over month price drop of just over 1%.

But that will be hard to maintain in Feb, since Feb sales on average go up by 50% from Jan sales.

VMD
Member
[The mixed blessing of low rates -If the Bank of Canada was permitted to do so, would it tighten home lending standards? ] – a gem of an article January 17, 2012 2:17PM EST There’s reason to wonder. The central bank said on Tuesday that it expects record household debt levels to keep rising. In one way, that’s good. With Europe’s economy likely in recession and China’s red-hot economy cooling to a more sustainable pace, domestic spending will continue to help Canada push through the current turbulence. Policy makers made no mention of household debt in their previous statement. That’s significant. Governor Mark Carney and his deputies have expressed concern about household debt in speeches, and they have made note of the risk in formal reports on the financial system. Now, policy makers are discussing Canadians’ extreme debt levels in… Read more »
grrr
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grrr

rob's site had even higher numbers for monday:

On Monday the real estate sales stats were:

New Listings 536

Price Changes 88

Sold Listings 85

That means a sell/list of 15.86%.

crashcow
Member

@VHB: looking forward to the 10-MOI party! (added bonus if it's 500+ listings on the same day)

argh!
Guest
argh!

it's Chinese new year. no one (with money) is shopping for a house right now.

Devore
Member
Devore

David Dodge just now on BNN: condo market in Toronto and Vancouver propped up by significant foreign investment, which is risky and could dry up at any time. Also more.

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip602480

wpDiscuz