428 new listings, 65 sold in one day
According to Paulb Monday was our first day of over 400 new listings in 2012:
New Listings 428
Price Changes 64
Sold Listings 65
Know how many days in 2011 had more than 400 new listings? None.
And look what’s happening in Richmond courtesy of Inventory.
Richmond Jan 3-16
New Listings 534
Price Changes 77
Sold 86
Some interesting things happening in this market early on in the year. The worst january in the last 10 years was in 2009 which saw a 20% sales to list ratio (we usually see at least double that).
January 16th, 2012 at 4:23 pm 1
I love you, Pope!
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January 16th, 2012 at 5:18 pm 2
So… Am I a prick for having a smile from ear to ear after seeing the numbers today? maybe so…. But I don't feel all that guilty somehow. Ahhhhhhh…… so THIS is Schadenfreude!!
As a side note, anyone think well see a 100+ sale day as part of a "new year bump"??? How about a 200+ day?? In the absence of any spike over the next 2 weeks to support the HAM hypothesis, I'd say this puppy is just about over!!!
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January 16th, 2012 at 6:02 pm 3
In related news, a 10 year mortgage at 4% is the last call for retards.
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January 16th, 2012 at 8:19 pm 4
to quote that immortal bard
satv………
"like a kite to the moon"
except he was referring to prices
not listings……….
got popcorn?
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January 16th, 2012 at 8:31 pm 5
CNY is next week; there may be some listings brought forward to hit the real estate newspaper run this week. Still too early to call it IMO.
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January 16th, 2012 at 10:45 pm 6
Overnight rate unchanged, Bank of Canada expects debt-income ratios to rise. I think that is a signal that the government won't act to tighten credit, at least explicitly. I expect behind-the-scenes tightening is the primary mode by which credit will be contained, and it's likely already occurred in most part.
That's a big risk to take, to let debt balloon further, but hey nobody said being a minister of finance was easy!
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January 17th, 2012 at 12:12 am 7
Let me see…
Friday we had 12006 listings total (11993 according to PaulB but that # got bumped up later)
Then we added 428 new listings. There were 65 sales. Net add is then 363.
BUT PaulB reports total listings at 12194 for a net add of 188-200.
So where did the other 163-175 listings go? Were they terminated? Canceled? Relisted? This is not an insignificant number. There are about 175 listings missing from the total that have not been sold.
Paul… where did they go?
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January 17th, 2012 at 12:30 am 8
6 jesse Says: "That’s a big risk to take, to let debt balloon further, but hey nobody said being a minister of finance was easy!"
If he's finding the burdens of responsibility difficult – and the shortcuts to date suggest so – I fully endorse relieving him with someone more capable of the heavy lifting required to act in Canada's best interests.
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January 17th, 2012 at 12:31 am 9
Chinese New Year is early this year. They're hoping to cash in on vacationing Asians. It's their only hope.
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January 17th, 2012 at 12:33 am 10
@rob:
Hello Rob, many listings are cancelled, terminated or expire every day. I count 80 of these yesterday.
Taking these 80 C/T/X into consideration, we're off about 80 from the TI number. I will look into this once when I get into the office.
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January 17th, 2012 at 12:40 am 11
More important than listings is sales. Sure the inventory means something but if it is just listings increasing and sales are steady then don't get too excited. In 2008 it was sales that dried which increased inventory, not a massive rush to the exits with huge listing days. It could be lots of people fishing who really are not interested in selling unless they hit the jackpot. For example if there are 10 houses on a street for sale compared to 5 last year but only 5 are priced close to market value with the other 5 being way overpriced it does not put any downward pressure on prices.
We also may be seeing lots of cancellations and relists to freshen up the listing for 2012. An old trick by realtors (which of course doesn't do anything).
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January 17th, 2012 at 1:11 am 12
@DEFAULT NAME: "it was sales that dried which increased inventory, not a massive rush to the exits with huge listing days"
IIRC listings were on the high side through the spring. It wasn't just low sales, there was some added impetus to sell also. This year looks very robust for listings, more so than 2008 was around this time.
For reasons I've outlined before, and to those who simply scratch their heads when looking at Vancouver from 38,000 feet, this isn't wholly surprising.
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January 17th, 2012 at 1:32 am 13
@jesse:
Definitely too early to call it but an intriguing trend so far nonetheless.
For reference, this was the same day last year which ended up being the highest listings day of January, 2011.
paulb. Says:
January 17th, 2011 at 5:45 pm
New Listings 292
Price Changes 62
Sold Listings 119
10294
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January 17th, 2012 at 1:51 am 14
@Best place on meth: Highest listings day in January of last year was 290. The first half of Jan'11 averaged 76 sales and 224 newlists, the latter half averaged 112 sales and 259 newlists. Listings accelerated in the latter half of 2011.
I do think CNY has brought forward many newlists by a few weeks this year (CNY last year was Feb 3) but I doubt it fully explains the volume we're seeing.
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January 17th, 2012 at 1:52 am 15
@jesse: *Latter half of January 2011
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January 17th, 2012 at 2:05 am 16
HAM might not be coming this year after all…
""Unofficial" money fleeing China"
"a look at the rate of change shows that the year-over-year change in gaming revenues have been falling since peaking last summer" (…) [funny enough, wasn't last summer the peak of Vancouver RE market?]
"using the crude measure of Macau gaming revenues is to remain cautiously optimistic about the prospects of a Chinese soft landing in 2012. While there may be substantial funds leaving the country through Macau, the lack of acceleration in gaming revenues showing that the unofficial (and smart) money is not panicking over the situation in China."
http://tinyurl.com/7j2l4uy
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January 17th, 2012 at 2:08 am 17
Jan-2012
Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 10
Weekends / holidays 6
Days missing 0
Days remaining 11
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 64
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 299
SALES
Sales so far 580
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 706
Projected month end total 1286 +/- 183
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 2866
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 3289
Projected month end total 6155 +/- 913
Sell-list so far 20.2%
Projected month-end sell-list 20.9%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of Jan 16, 2012 12194
MoI at this sales pace 9.48
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January 17th, 2012 at 2:53 am 18
@VHB: the last time MOI pierced through 10 was in summer 2008:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?k…
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January 17th, 2012 at 3:05 am 19
gotta say folks. after the past few days of Paulb listings, I feel rejuvenated to follow this thread more regularly. Can't wait to see tonight's listings. I'm a pathetic little "bear." AIN'T IT GREAT?
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January 17th, 2012 at 3:45 am 20
@crashcow: Yes. Unless inventory accumulation slows down a bunch or sales pick up a bunch over the next two weeks, then we should pierce 10.0 MoI by the end of the month.
In my MoI vs. price change model, MoI of 10 predicts a month over month price drop of just over 1%.
But that will be hard to maintain in Feb, since Feb sales on average go up by 50% from Jan sales.
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January 17th, 2012 at 3:46 am 21
[The mixed blessing of low rates -If the Bank of Canada was permitted to do so, would it tighten home lending standards? ]
- a gem of an article
January 17, 2012 2:17PM EST
There’s reason to wonder. The central bank said on Tuesday that it expects record household debt levels to keep rising.
In one way, that’s good. With Europe’s economy likely in recession and China’s red-hot economy cooling to a more sustainable pace, domestic spending will continue to help Canada push through the current turbulence.
Policy makers made no mention of household debt in their previous statement. That’s significant. Governor Mark Carney and his deputies have expressed concern about household debt in speeches, and they have made note of the risk in formal reports on the financial system. Now, policy makers are discussing Canadians’ extreme debt levels in terms of setting policy for the broader economy. The threat level, as far as the Bank of Canada is concerned, is rising.
The prediction that household debt levels will continue to rise is an admission that Canadians are paying closer attention to the central bank’s actions, rather than its words. Mr. Carney’s increasingly severe warnings about the perils of debt last year apparently were no match for the once-in-a-lifetime allure of incredibly low mortgage rates
Aside from public warnings, the Bank of Canada’s only direct means to influence consumer behaviour is to raise interest rates. But doing so now would be a mistake …
It could be argued that the commercial banks should act more responsibly. Don’t count on it. Just as consumers have a powerful incentive to borrow, the banks have a powerful incentive to lend. It’s mostly risk-free lending because the mortgages are insured by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC). And no lender driven by the profit motive is going to turn down that opportunity unless it is forced to by the government.
Mr. Dodge explained the limits on the Bank of Canada’s ability to deal with the issue on its own. He said low interest rates are necessary for the broader economy, but not for housing. However, it’s CMHC and the Finance Department that sets the rules for housing. As with the public, the Bank of Canada can only sound the alarm. Action will depend on whether the politicians agree.
“This is a very judicious balancing act, and unfortunately it’s the Bank of Canada on one side that does the monetary policy, and Canada Mortgage and the Department of Finance on the other side that does the regulation,” Mr. Dodge said. “And that really does require much closer policy co-ordination between the three parties.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…
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January 17th, 2012 at 3:48 am 22
rob's site had even higher numbers for monday:
On Monday the real estate sales stats were:
New Listings 536
Price Changes 88
Sold Listings 85
That means a sell/list of 15.86%.
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January 17th, 2012 at 3:56 am 23
@VHB: looking forward to the 10-MOI party! (added bonus if it's 500+ listings on the same day)
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January 17th, 2012 at 4:01 am 24
it's Chinese new year. no one (with money) is shopping for a house right now.
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January 17th, 2012 at 4:14 am 25
David Dodge just now on BNN: condo market in Toronto and Vancouver propped up by significant foreign investment, which is risky and could dry up at any time. Also more.
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip602480
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January 17th, 2012 at 4:38 am 26
Some new interesting tidbits of stats.
We are on pace for less than 10% Sale to List in Van-West detached this month. Previous low was 14% in September 2008. Unit sales in one month will be potentially in the bottom in the past 10 years at less than 50 units (5 of the last 6 months of 2008 were similar).
Listings this month could be a record month ever for Van-West and Richmond detached and these are the two markets with the biggest decreases in sales and increases in inventory. Each are on pace to potentially exceed 500 lists in the month.
I wonder which week this year we will have the 1,000 inventory on VanWest detached or Richmond. We are almost at 700 on Van West and over 725 for Richmond. I would say that at this rate we could be there in March prior to the spring listings rush.
If this market completely falls apart – could we see 1500 units for sale in either of these HAM hotbeds? If we did and sales fall to 50 / month – we will see Whistler like MOI of over 30 and rapidly falling prices (which will ultimately lead to listings being pulled and some dampening – - but . . who knows?).
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January 17th, 2012 at 5:03 am 27
Flaherty Says He’s Prepared to Intervene in Canada Housing.. (but not right now..)
January 17, 2012, 2:06 PM EST
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) — Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he’s prepared to intervene in the country’s housing market if necessary, though the government has no plans to take immediate action.
Flaherty, speaking to reporters in Ottawa, said he’s watching closely condominium markets in Vancouver and Toronto.
“We watch the housing market carefully, and we are prepared to intervene if necessary” Flaherty said, adding there has been some “softening” in the country’s housing market. “Having said that, we’re not about to intervene in the housing market now.”
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-17/flahe…
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January 17th, 2012 at 5:28 am 28
"Flaherty Says He’s Prepared to Intervene in Canada Housing"
Uh oh bears…
Looks like the feds will intervene..
The feds say, "screw moral hazard" of intervening even more in the market…
As I said before bears, ALL levels of government have abandoned you! Your financially prudent, renting ways means nothing to them. You are a silent useless minority…
If I were you, I would stop paying taxes to protest..
How unfair it is that the tax system favour homeowners over renters (no capital gains on primary residence, mortgage bailouts through the banks, est)…
Cue for Patriotz to say that the feds will NEVER intervene…hahah…follow the clueless bear back to Ottawa
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January 17th, 2012 at 5:36 am 29
@VMD:
I had a feeling there would be no tightening of mortgage rules this spring.
Just as well, let this blimp crash and burn on its own – no need to get the dumb sheep rushing out to get mortgages again like last March.
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January 17th, 2012 at 5:38 am 30
21 VMD quoted: "Aside from public warnings, the Bank of Canada’s only direct means to influence consumer behaviour is to raise interest rates."
Not exactly true. They influence consumer behaviour as much by keeping rates low. Canadian political discourse enters the Twilight Zone. Actually, whenever a federal government thinks it can 'command' a populace's behaviour we enter a much more disconcerting zone.
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January 17th, 2012 at 5:39 am 31
@Fishbowl
Flaherty's "preparing to" intervene in housing?!? Are you Pamela Ewing and have slept through the past two seasons? I kind of think providing unlimited underpriced mortgage insurance, running massive stimulative budget deficits, and acting as a sugar daddy to the banks by buying assets from them in 2008 would have already counted as "intervening" in housing.
However, the gig's up now. Everyone's in too deep and we've exhausted the pool of potential owner-occupying buyers. And I don't think what F was saying is that he is going to bail out the "investment" condo speculators. Nice try though. I feel for you.
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January 17th, 2012 at 6:14 am 32
Remember when we had a Wiki? There was some useful info collected there, but it got swamped by spammers. We've got a docs function at the new forum site that may help to replace this. The wiki is temporarily re-instated if anyone wants to grab anything from it and create a new doc.
The old wiki is here
The new site is http://vancouverpeak.com
You should be able to log in with your VCI user info and then go to groups and select a group or create a new group. There you can create or edit docs. You can set docs to be viewable only by members of a group and you can edit in a fairly friendly user interface. I just copied and pasted a few pages from the wiki into new doc here and it seemed to work pretty well:
http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/data-hounds/docs/
The info is out of date, but it can be brought up to date if anyone has the time and inclination.
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January 17th, 2012 at 6:41 am 33
@Fishbowl:
"How unfair it is that the tax system favour homeowners over renters"
Actually the tax system favours only those who buy at reasonable prices, i.e. expenses less than renting. Those who buy at excessive prices would be better off if owner-occupied housing were treated as a taxable investment as they would be able to deduct the operating loss (i.e. expenses – rental value) and any capital loss on sale.
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January 17th, 2012 at 6:50 am 34
so the tax system favoured you be giving the one way airfare to ottawa?
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January 17th, 2012 at 6:54 am 35
@ZRH2YVR: … – we will see Whistler like MOI of over 30 and rapidly falling prices . …
The outlook for Whistler just keeps getting worse ever day. Global warming researchers are warning Ski resorts like Whistler won't have enough snow within 20 years. Take that, combined with demographics, can you say: "Ghost Town"?
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January 17th, 2012 at 7:21 am 36
http://www.vancourier.com/Opinion/Chinese+ownersh…
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January 17th, 2012 at 7:27 am 37
But the bank said: “In contrast, very favourable financing conditions are expected to buttress consumer spending and housing activity.”
BMO Capital Markets deputy chief economist Doug Porter said, “There’s a fine line that the bank is hoping the economy can tread—one where there is just enough consumer spending to keep the wheels of the economy moving without getting consumers into trouble.”
http://www.thestar.com/article/1116701–flaherty-…
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January 17th, 2012 at 8:06 am 38
@vangrl: what a great article! And great conclusion…
"Globalization, in the form of foreign investment, may help chase an entire generation of native-born residents from the city and deny other immigrants a chance at home ownership. Remedies are scarce. But returning property to people who live, work and raise families here seems like a good start."
I wonder how long it will take until the author of that article will be called a racist
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January 17th, 2012 at 8:15 am 39
Great numbers again today, much like yesterday.
The listings flood continues in the HAM hotspots.
Correction: former HAM hotspots.
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January 17th, 2012 at 8:39 am 40
I wish that i could get excited, but i look around and prices are absolutely mind boggling.
This house on Charles St. was on sale for I think the entire last year in the 600 000's.
It expired, now it is re-listed in the 700 000's…
What information does this person have that suddenly the house they couldn't sell last year, is now going to sell for 100 000 more???!!! http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…
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January 17th, 2012 at 8:46 am 41
@Patient renter: Duh…assessments went up. Time to cash in.
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January 17th, 2012 at 8:54 am 42
@DEFAULT NAME: No kidding. Our westside rental is up to $1.5M as of last assessment (July 2011?). Think the owners paid $500k in 2005 or thereabouts. We're hoping they're not in the mood to cash in. Just agreed to another year tenancy so we can sit tight for now.
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January 17th, 2012 at 9:05 am 43
Chinese ownership helps drive Vancouver's dysfunctional housing market
B.C. should follow Australia's lead and target foreign buyers
http://www.vancourier.com/Chinese+ownership+helps…
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January 17th, 2012 at 9:09 am 44
2 ideas for RE twitter accounts:
1. Paulb's dailys
2. Shit Realtors Say
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January 17th, 2012 at 9:35 am 45
@Best place on meth: "former HAM hotspots."
Oh they're still hotspots, just the heat flows the other way.
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January 17th, 2012 at 9:36 am 46
What information does this person have that suddenly the house they couldn’t sell last year, is now going to sell for 100 000 more???!!!
May be their property assessment went up… the city needs cash.
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January 17th, 2012 at 9:48 am 47
Jan 16-17
West Vancouver
New Listings 47
Price Changes 2
Sold 2
Vancouver West
New Listings 208
Price Changes 16
Sold 28
Richmond
New Listings 129
Price Changes 17
Sold 20
North Van
New Listings 63
Price Changes 7
Sold 13
Burnaby
New Listings 70
Price Changes 14
Sold 16
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January 17th, 2012 at 9:54 am 48
@Patient renter:
That's funny, his own website lists it for $668K.
http://www.richardliu.ca/Properties.php/Details/1…
Too lazy or too stupid to make the 2 numbers match up?
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January 17th, 2012 at 10:22 am 49
@ various people. Increasing the asking price is actually great strategy.
Poor (i.e. Non-HAM) probably set their search criteria by setting a price maximum.
However, rich people (i.e. HAM), probably set their search criteria by setting a price MINIMUM.
By increasing the price, you get your listing into the search results of richer people. Also, a higher asking price tricks people into thinking its a decent property.
Idiotic you say? Well, look at who would be buying into this market…targeting idiots is the only way to go
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January 17th, 2012 at 10:28 am 50
hilarious how HGTV goes from airing shows like "The Big Flip" at the peak of the US bubble to now airing stuff like "For Rent." Nice contrarian indicator.
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January 17th, 2012 at 10:38 am 51
New Listings 324
Price Changes 48
Sold Listings 82
TI:12400
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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January 17th, 2012 at 10:59 am 52
Jan-2012
Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 11
Weekends / holidays 6
Days missing 0
Days remaining 10
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 62
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 294
SALES
Sales so far 662
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 618
Projected month end total 1280 +/- 120
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 3190
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 2936
Projected month end total 6126 +/- 801
Sell-list so far 20.8%
Projected month-end sell-list 20.9%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of Jan 17, 2012 12400
MoI at this sales pace 9.69
A couple more days and we will break 10.0 for MoI.
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January 17th, 2012 at 10:59 am 53
only 300+
disappointed
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January 17th, 2012 at 11:04 am 54
Good refresher on MOI vs price changes by mohican and jesse
http://housing-analysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/uber…
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January 17th, 2012 at 11:08 am 55
@Dante:
Cheer up, we still gained 200 inventory just like yesterday.
At this rate the parties will be every Friday.
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January 17th, 2012 at 11:40 am 56
@Dante: Don't be disappointed, this is still an amazing number.
Let me copy a message from BPOM from this morning:
"For reference, this was the same day last year which ended up being the highest listings day of January, 2011.
paulb. Says:
January 17th, 2011 at 5:45 pm
New Listings 292
Price Changes 62
Sold Listings 119
10294"
324 new listings is still 10% more than the highest number of last year… And sales today are 30% below last year's same day.
These are still great numbers for the Bears
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January 17th, 2012 at 11:50 am 57
it's funny that they are more happy to see the numbers than to see their mothers!
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January 17th, 2012 at 1:44 pm 58
@Patient renter: I wish that i could get excited, but i look around and prices are absolutely mind boggling
Patient Renter, you are wise not to get too excited. We've seen this before. Increase in listings, drop in prices and the bears go bananas. I've been reading these blogs for 5 years now and it is a familiar pattern. Each piece of news supposedly suggests the crash IS HAPPENING NOW!
I favour a more moderate response and will only start the cheering once i see a significant and sustained decrease in prices.
It pains me to see the overreaction of many bears to a few months of data. I want prices to correct as much as anyone on this board, but the back slapping and high fives all round just don't do it for me at this point in the maybe-correction.
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January 17th, 2012 at 2:02 pm 59
Here are some MOI stats as of Jan 17 based on current inventory and first half of Jan sales (11/21 sales days).
Sorry for the poor table format. The three data points from left to right are January 17, November 25 and July 4. The current sort is from lowest to highest.
DETACHED
DELTA 3.8 5.6 4.0
Van East 5.8 4.9 2.7
North Van 6.4 3.3 2.8
Coquitlam 6.5 4.8 4.0
CLOVERDALE 7.2 6.5 3.2
N SURREY 7.8 6.7 7.5
Burnaby 9.6 4.4 2.2
SURREY 9.9 6.9 5.6
LANGLEY 10.7 5.4 4.8
Richmond 11.1 9.5 8.6
ABBOTSFORD 11.9 10.0 7.8
WHITE ROCK 13.3 8.5 3.3
West Van 16.7 6.8 3.2
Van west 18.3 6.3 2.9
Maple Ridge 18.4 7.0 7.0
MISSION 24.8 12.1 8.9
Total MOI 10.5 6.6 4.0
ATTACHED
North Van 7.1 5.2 6.1
Surrey 7.5 6.7 6.3
Van East 8.0 5.2 4.8
Coquitlam 8.7 6.6 3.5
North Surrey 8.8 7.6 7.6
Langley 9.0 7.2 4.6
Richmond 9.1 7.1 6.7
White Rock 9.9 10.1 4.4
Abbotsford 10.0 5.2 8.5
North Delta 10.2 7.8 5.4
Van west 10.3 5.2 4.5
Burnaby 10.4 5.2 4.5
West Van 13.5 4.8 7.5
Maple Ridge 16.8 5.2 4.8
Cloverdale 31.6 5.2 6.3
Mission 57.6 11.1 11.2
Total MOI 9.6 6.2 5.5
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January 17th, 2012 at 2:28 pm 60
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/china-s-…
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January 17th, 2012 at 2:28 pm 61
bears got chased by their wives by the front tails. cheers up, lives are not that terrible as you think.
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January 17th, 2012 at 2:53 pm 62
@DEFAULT NAME:
Right on man,hitting on those bears' ball hard early in 2012.
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January 17th, 2012 at 4:19 pm 63
@ulsterman:
Regardless of how excited you let yourself become,
these are the facts:
1. Current Total Inventory (12400) is 19% higher than same period in 2011 (10452), and still rising.
2. Current New Listing is 27% higher than same period last year, and still rising. Will set new record for the last 10+ years.
3. Current Sales is 22% less than same period last year, with the gap still widening.
4. Current REBGV MOI is approaching 10; it was 6.5 same period last year.
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January 18th, 2012 at 3:49 am 64
[...] wreckonomics for Vancouver Condo Info, 2012. | Permalink | 3 comments | Add to del.icio.us Post [...]
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