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428 new listings, 65 sold in one day

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According to Paulb Monday was our first day of over 400 new listings in 2012:

New Listings 428
Price Changes 64
Sold Listings 65

Know how many days in 2011 had more than 400 new listings? None.

And look what’s happening in Richmond courtesy of Inventory.

Richmond Jan 3-16
New Listings 534
Price Changes 77
Sold 86

Some interesting things happening in this market early on in the year. The worst january in the last 10 years was in 2009 which saw a 20% sales to list ratio (we usually see at least double that).

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VMD

@ulsterman:

Regardless of how excited you let yourself become,

these are the facts:

1. Current Total Inventory (12400) is 19% higher than same period in 2011 (10452), and still rising.

2. Current New Listing is 27% higher than same period last year, and still rising. Will set new record for the last 10+ years.

3. Current Sales is 22% less than same period last year, with the gap still widening.

4. Current REBGV MOI is approaching 10; it was 6.5 same period last year.

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Extremely rich Van h

@DEFAULT NAME:

Right on man,hitting on those bears' ball hard early in 2012.

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Anonymous

bears got chased by their wives by the front tails. cheers up, lives are not that terrible as you think.

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ZRH2YVR

Here are some MOI stats as of Jan 17 based on current inventory and first half of Jan sales (11/21 sales days). Sorry for the poor table format. The three data points from left to right are January 17, November 25 and July 4. The current sort is from lowest to highest. DETACHED DELTA 3.8 5.6 4.0 Van East 5.8 4.9 2.7 North Van 6.4 3.3 2.8 Coquitlam 6.5 4.8 4.0 CLOVERDALE 7.2 6.5 3.2 N SURREY 7.8 6.7 7.5 Burnaby 9.6 4.4 2.2 SURREY 9.9 6.9 5.6 LANGLEY 10.7 5.4 4.8 Richmond 11.1 9.5 8.6 ABBOTSFORD 11.9 10.0 7.8 WHITE ROCK 13.3 8.5 3.3 West Van 16.7 6.8 3.2 Van west 18.3 6.3 2.9 Maple Ridge 18.4 7.0 7.0 MISSION 24.8 12.1 8.9 Total MOI 10.5 6.6 4.0 ATTACHED North Van 7.1 5.2 6.1 Surrey 7.5 6.7 6.3 Van… Read more »

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Ulsterman

@Patient renter: I wish that i could get excited, but i look around and prices are absolutely mind boggling Patient Renter, you are wise not to get too excited. We've seen this before. Increase in listings, drop in prices and the bears go bananas. I've been reading these blogs for 5 years now and it is a familiar pattern. Each piece of news supposedly suggests the crash IS HAPPENING NOW! I favour a more moderate response and will only start the cheering once i see a significant and sustained decrease in prices. It pains me to see the overreaction of many bears to a few months of data. I want prices to correct as much as anyone on this board, but the back slapping and high fives all round just don't do it for me at this point in the… Read more »

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Anonymous

it's funny that they are more happy to see the numbers than to see their mothers!

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Makaya

@Dante: Don't be disappointed, this is still an amazing number.

Let me copy a message from BPOM from this morning:

"For reference, this was the same day last year which ended up being the highest listings day of January, 2011.

paulb. Says:

January 17th, 2011 at 5:45 pm

New Listings 292

Price Changes 62

Sold Listings 119

10294"

324 new listings is still 10% more than the highest number of last year… And sales today are 30% below last year's same day.

These are still great numbers for the Bears

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Best place on meth

@Dante:

Cheer up, we still gained 200 inventory just like yesterday.

At this rate the parties will be every Friday.

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mflat

Good refresher on MOI vs price changes by mohican and jesse

http://housing-analysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/uber…

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Dante

only 300+

disappointed

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VHB

Jan-2012

Total days 21

Days elapsed so far 11

Weekends / holidays 6

Days missing 0

Days remaining 10

7 Day Moving Average: Sales 62

7 Day Moving Average: Listings 294

SALES

Sales so far 662

Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 618

Projected month end total 1280 +/- 120

NEW LISTINGS

Listings so far 3190

Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 2936

Projected month end total 6126 +/- 801

Sell-list so far 20.8%

Projected month-end sell-list 20.9%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

Inventory as of Jan 17, 2012 12400

MoI at this sales pace 9.69

A couple more days and we will break 10.0 for MoI.

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paulb.

New Listings 324

Price Changes 48

Sold Listings 82

TI:12400

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

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crashcow

hilarious how HGTV goes from airing shows like "The Big Flip" at the peak of the US bubble to now airing stuff like "For Rent." Nice contrarian indicator.

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Relax

@ various people. Increasing the asking price is actually great strategy.

Poor (i.e. Non-HAM) probably set their search criteria by setting a price maximum.

However, rich people (i.e. HAM), probably set their search criteria by setting a price MINIMUM.

By increasing the price, you get your listing into the search results of richer people. Also, a higher asking price tricks people into thinking its a decent property.

Idiotic you say? Well, look at who would be buying into this market…targeting idiots is the only way to go

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Best place on meth

@Patient renter:

That's funny, his own website lists it for $668K.

http://www.richardliu.ca/Properties.php/Details/1…

Too lazy or too stupid to make the 2 numbers match up?

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Inventory

Jan 16-17

West Vancouver

New Listings 47

Price Changes 2

Sold 2

Vancouver West

New Listings 208

Price Changes 16

Sold 28

Richmond

New Listings 129

Price Changes 17

Sold 20

North Van

New Listings 63

Price Changes 7

Sold 13

Burnaby

New Listings 70

Price Changes 14

Sold 16

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jumpin in

What information does this person have that suddenly the house they couldn’t sell last year, is now going to sell for 100 000 more???!!!

May be their property assessment went up… the city needs cash.

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jesse

@Best place on meth: "former HAM hotspots."

Oh they're still hotspots, just the heat flows the other way.

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Anonymous

2 ideas for RE twitter accounts:

1. Paulb's dailys

2. Shit Realtors Say

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NoCondo

Chinese ownership helps drive Vancouver's dysfunctional housing market

B.C. should follow Australia's lead and target foreign buyers

http://www.vancourier.com/Chinese+ownership+helps…

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/dev/null

@DEFAULT NAME: No kidding. Our westside rental is up to $1.5M as of last assessment (July 2011?). Think the owners paid $500k in 2005 or thereabouts. We're hoping they're not in the mood to cash in. Just agreed to another year tenancy so we can sit tight for now.

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Anonymous

@Patient renter: Duh…assessments went up. Time to cash in.

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Patient renter

I wish that i could get excited, but i look around and prices are absolutely mind boggling.

This house on Charles St. was on sale for I think the entire last year in the 600 000's.
It expired, now it is re-listed in the 700 000's…

What information does this person have that suddenly the house they couldn't sell last year, is now going to sell for 100 000 more???!!! http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…

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