428 new listings, 65 sold in one day

According to Paulb Monday was our first day of over 400 new listings in 2012:

New Listings 428
Price Changes 64
Sold Listings 65

Know how many days in 2011 had more than 400 new listings? None.

And look what’s happening in Richmond courtesy of Inventory.

Richmond Jan 3-16
New Listings 534
Price Changes 77
Sold 86

Some interesting things happening in this market early on in the year. The worst january in the last 10 years was in 2009 which saw a 20% sales to list ratio (we usually see at least double that).

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Guest
Lilypad
4 years 28 days ago

I love you, Pope!

Member
and so it begins...
4 years 28 days ago

So… Am I a prick for having a smile from ear to ear after seeing the numbers today? maybe so…. But I don't feel all that guilty somehow. Ahhhhhhh…… so THIS is Schadenfreude!!

As a side note, anyone think well see a 100+ sale day as part of a "new year bump"??? How about a 200+ day?? In the absence of any spike over the next 2 weeks to support the HAM hypothesis, I'd say this puppy is just about over!!!

Guest
rp1
4 years 28 days ago

In related news, a 10 year mortgage at 4% is the last call for retards.

Guest
blueskies
4 years 28 days ago

to quote that immortal bard

satv………

"like a kite to the moon"

except he was referring to prices
not listings……….

got popcorn?

jesse
Member
4 years 28 days ago

CNY is next week; there may be some listings brought forward to hit the real estate newspaper run this week. Still too early to call it IMO.

jesse
Member
4 years 28 days ago

Overnight rate unchanged, Bank of Canada expects debt-income ratios to rise. I think that is a signal that the government won't act to tighten credit, at least explicitly. I expect behind-the-scenes tightening is the primary mode by which credit will be contained, and it's likely already occurred in most part.

That's a big risk to take, to let debt balloon further, but hey nobody said being a minister of finance was easy!

Guest
rob
4 years 27 days ago

Let me see…

Friday we had 12006 listings total (11993 according to PaulB but that # got bumped up later)

Then we added 428 new listings. There were 65 sales. Net add is then 363.

BUT PaulB reports total listings at 12194 for a net add of 188-200.

So where did the other 163-175 listings go? Were they terminated? Canceled? Relisted? This is not an insignificant number. There are about 175 listings missing from the total that have not been sold.

Paul… where did they go?

Guest
fixie guy
4 years 27 days ago

6 jesse Says: "That’s a big risk to take, to let debt balloon further, but hey nobody said being a minister of finance was easy!"

If he's finding the burdens of responsibility difficult – and the shortcuts to date suggest so – I fully endorse relieving him with someone more capable of the heavy lifting required to act in Canada's best interests.

Guest
Apocarypse Mao
4 years 27 days ago

Chinese New Year is early this year. They're hoping to cash in on vacationing Asians. It's their only hope.

Guest
paulb.
4 years 27 days ago

@rob:

Hello Rob, many listings are cancelled, terminated or expire every day. I count 80 of these yesterday.

Taking these 80 C/T/X into consideration, we're off about 80 from the TI number. I will look into this once when I get into the office.

Guest
Anonymous
4 years 27 days ago

More important than listings is sales. Sure the inventory means something but if it is just listings increasing and sales are steady then don't get too excited. In 2008 it was sales that dried which increased inventory, not a massive rush to the exits with huge listing days. It could be lots of people fishing who really are not interested in selling unless they hit the jackpot. For example if there are 10 houses on a street for sale compared to 5 last year but only 5 are priced close to market value with the other 5 being way overpriced… Read more »

jesse
Member
4 years 27 days ago

@DEFAULT NAME: "it was sales that dried which increased inventory, not a massive rush to the exits with huge listing days"

IIRC listings were on the high side through the spring. It wasn't just low sales, there was some added impetus to sell also. This year looks very robust for listings, more so than 2008 was around this time.

For reasons I've outlined before, and to those who simply scratch their heads when looking at Vancouver from 38,000 feet, this isn't wholly surprising.

Member
Best place on meth
4 years 27 days ago

@jesse:

Definitely too early to call it but an intriguing trend so far nonetheless.

For reference, this was the same day last year which ended up being the highest listings day of January, 2011.

paulb. Says:

January 17th, 2011 at 5:45 pm

New Listings 292

Price Changes 62

Sold Listings 119

10294

jesse
Member
4 years 27 days ago

@Best place on meth: Highest listings day in January of last year was 290. The first half of Jan'11 averaged 76 sales and 224 newlists, the latter half averaged 112 sales and 259 newlists. Listings accelerated in the latter half of 2011.

I do think CNY has brought forward many newlists by a few weeks this year (CNY last year was Feb 3) but I doubt it fully explains the volume we're seeing.

jesse
Member
4 years 27 days ago

@jesse: *Latter half of January 2011

Makaya
Member
Makaya
4 years 27 days ago

HAM might not be coming this year after all… ""Unofficial" money fleeing China" "a look at the rate of change shows that the year-over-year change in gaming revenues have been falling since peaking last summer" (…) [funny enough, wasn't last summer the peak of Vancouver RE market?] "using the crude measure of Macau gaming revenues is to remain cautiously optimistic about the prospects of a Chinese soft landing in 2012. While there may be substantial funds leaving the country through Macau, the lack of acceleration in gaming revenues showing that the unofficial (and smart) money is not panicking over the… Read more »

Member
VHB
4 years 27 days ago

Jan-2012

Total days 21

Days elapsed so far 10

Weekends / holidays 6

Days missing 0

Days remaining 11

7 Day Moving Average: Sales 64

7 Day Moving Average: Listings 299

SALES

Sales so far 580

Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 706

Projected month end total 1286 +/- 183

NEW LISTINGS

Listings so far 2866

Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 3289

Projected month end total 6155 +/- 913

Sell-list so far 20.2%

Projected month-end sell-list 20.9%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

Inventory as of Jan 16, 2012 12194

MoI at this sales pace 9.48

Member
4 years 27 days ago

@VHB: the last time MOI pierced through 10 was in summer 2008:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?k

Guest
The Leak
4 years 27 days ago

gotta say folks. after the past few days of Paulb listings, I feel rejuvenated to follow this thread more regularly. Can't wait to see tonight's listings. I'm a pathetic little "bear." AIN'T IT GREAT?

Member
VHB
4 years 27 days ago

@crashcow: Yes. Unless inventory accumulation slows down a bunch or sales pick up a bunch over the next two weeks, then we should pierce 10.0 MoI by the end of the month.

In my MoI vs. price change model, MoI of 10 predicts a month over month price drop of just over 1%.

But that will be hard to maintain in Feb, since Feb sales on average go up by 50% from Jan sales.

VMD
Member
4 years 27 days ago

[The mixed blessing of low rates -If the Bank of Canada was permitted to do so, would it tighten home lending standards? ] – a gem of an article January 17, 2012 2:17PM EST There’s reason to wonder. The central bank said on Tuesday that it expects record household debt levels to keep rising. In one way, that’s good. With Europe’s economy likely in recession and China’s red-hot economy cooling to a more sustainable pace, domestic spending will continue to help Canada push through the current turbulence. Policy makers made no mention of household debt in their previous statement. That’s… Read more »

Guest
grrr
4 years 27 days ago

rob's site had even higher numbers for monday:

On Monday the real estate sales stats were:

New Listings 536

Price Changes 88

Sold Listings 85

That means a sell/list of 15.86%.

Member
4 years 27 days ago

@VHB: looking forward to the 10-MOI party! (added bonus if it's 500+ listings on the same day)

Guest
argh!
4 years 27 days ago

it's Chinese new year. no one (with money) is shopping for a house right now.

Member
Devore
4 years 27 days ago

David Dodge just now on BNN: condo market in Toronto and Vancouver propped up by significant foreign investment, which is risky and could dry up at any time. Also more.

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip602480

Member
4 years 27 days ago

Some new interesting tidbits of stats. We are on pace for less than 10% Sale to List in Van-West detached this month. Previous low was 14% in September 2008. Unit sales in one month will be potentially in the bottom in the past 10 years at less than 50 units (5 of the last 6 months of 2008 were similar). Listings this month could be a record month ever for Van-West and Richmond detached and these are the two markets with the biggest decreases in sales and increases in inventory. Each are on pace to potentially exceed 500 lists in… Read more »

VMD
Member
4 years 27 days ago

Flaherty Says He’s Prepared to Intervene in Canada Housing.. (but not right now..) January 17, 2012, 2:06 PM EST Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) — Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he’s prepared to intervene in the country’s housing market if necessary, though the government has no plans to take immediate action. Flaherty, speaking to reporters in Ottawa, said he’s watching closely condominium markets in Vancouver and Toronto. “We watch the housing market carefully, and we are prepared to intervene if necessary” Flaherty said, adding there has been some “softening” in the country’s housing market. “Having said that, we’re not about to… Read more »

Guest
Fishbowl
4 years 27 days ago

"Flaherty Says He’s Prepared to Intervene in Canada Housing" Uh oh bears… Looks like the feds will intervene.. The feds say, "screw moral hazard" of intervening even more in the market… As I said before bears, ALL levels of government have abandoned you! Your financially prudent, renting ways means nothing to them. You are a silent useless minority… If I were you, I would stop paying taxes to protest.. How unfair it is that the tax system favour homeowners over renters (no capital gains on primary residence, mortgage bailouts through the banks, est)… Cue for Patriotz to say that the… Read more »

Member
Best place on meth
4 years 27 days ago

@VMD:

I had a feeling there would be no tightening of mortgage rules this spring.

Just as well, let this blimp crash and burn on its own – no need to get the dumb sheep rushing out to get mortgages again like last March.

Guest
fixie guy
4 years 27 days ago

21 VMD quoted: "Aside from public warnings, the Bank of Canada’s only direct means to influence consumer behaviour is to raise interest rates."

Not exactly true. They influence consumer behaviour as much by keeping rates low. Canadian political discourse enters the Twilight Zone. Actually, whenever a federal government thinks it can 'command' a populace's behaviour we enter a much more disconcerting zone.

Guest
Roomy Shopper
4 years 27 days ago

@Fishbowl Flaherty's "preparing to" intervene in housing?!? Are you Pamela Ewing and have slept through the past two seasons? I kind of think providing unlimited underpriced mortgage insurance, running massive stimulative budget deficits, and acting as a sugar daddy to the banks by buying assets from them in 2008 would have already counted as "intervening" in housing. However, the gig's up now. Everyone's in too deep and we've exhausted the pool of potential owner-occupying buyers. And I don't think what F was saying is that he is going to bail out the "investment" condo speculators. Nice try though. I feel… Read more »

Guest
4 years 27 days ago

Remember when we had a Wiki? There was some useful info collected there, but it got swamped by spammers. We've got a docs function at the new forum site that may help to replace this. The wiki is temporarily re-instated if anyone wants to grab anything from it and create a new doc. The old wiki is here The new site is http://vancouverpeak.com You should be able to log in with your VCI user info and then go to groups and select a group or create a new group. There you can create or edit docs. You can set docs… Read more »

patriotz
Member
4 years 27 days ago

@Fishbowl:

"How unfair it is that the tax system favour homeowners over renters"

Actually the tax system favours only those who buy at reasonable prices, i.e. expenses less than renting. Those who buy at excessive prices would be better off if owner-occupied housing were treated as a taxable investment as they would be able to deduct the operating loss (i.e. expenses – rental value) and any capital loss on sale.

Guest
Anonymous
4 years 27 days ago

so the tax system favoured you be giving the one way airfare to ottawa?

Guest
Anonymous
4 years 27 days ago

@ZRH2YVR: … – we will see Whistler like MOI of over 30 and rapidly falling prices . …

The outlook for Whistler just keeps getting worse ever day. Global warming researchers are warning Ski resorts like Whistler won't have enough snow within 20 years. Take that, combined with demographics, can you say: "Ghost Town"?

Member
vangrl
4 years 27 days ago
Guest
jumpin in
4 years 27 days ago

But the bank said: “In contrast, very favourable financing conditions are expected to buttress consumer spending and housing activity.”

BMO Capital Markets deputy chief economist Doug Porter said, “There’s a fine line that the bank is hoping the economy can tread—one where there is just enough consumer spending to keep the wheels of the economy moving without getting consumers into trouble.”

http://www.thestar.com/article/1116701–flaherty-

Makaya
Member
Makaya
4 years 27 days ago

@vangrl: what a great article! And great conclusion…

"Globalization, in the form of foreign investment, may help chase an entire generation of native-born residents from the city and deny other immigrants a chance at home ownership. Remedies are scarce. But returning property to people who live, work and raise families here seems like a good start."

I wonder how long it will take until the author of that article will be called a racist :)

Member
Best place on meth
4 years 27 days ago

Great numbers again today, much like yesterday.

The listings flood continues in the HAM hotspots.

Correction: former HAM hotspots.

Guest
Patient renter
4 years 27 days ago

I wish that i could get excited, but i look around and prices are absolutely mind boggling.

This house on Charles St. was on sale for I think the entire last year in the 600 000's.
It expired, now it is re-listed in the 700 000's…

What information does this person have that suddenly the house they couldn't sell last year, is now going to sell for 100 000 more???!!! http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper

Guest
Anonymous
4 years 27 days ago

@Patient renter: Duh…assessments went up. Time to cash in.

Member
/dev/null
4 years 27 days ago

@DEFAULT NAME: No kidding. Our westside rental is up to $1.5M as of last assessment (July 2011?). Think the owners paid $500k in 2005 or thereabouts. We're hoping they're not in the mood to cash in. Just agreed to another year tenancy so we can sit tight for now.

Guest
NoCondo
4 years 27 days ago

Chinese ownership helps drive Vancouver's dysfunctional housing market

B.C. should follow Australia's lead and target foreign buyers

http://www.vancourier.com/Chinese+ownership+helps

Guest
Anonymous
4 years 27 days ago

2 ideas for RE twitter accounts:

1. Paulb's dailys

2. Shit Realtors Say

jesse
Member
4 years 27 days ago

@Best place on meth: "former HAM hotspots."

Oh they're still hotspots, just the heat flows the other way.

Guest
jumpin in
4 years 27 days ago

What information does this person have that suddenly the house they couldn’t sell last year, is now going to sell for 100 000 more???!!!

May be their property assessment went up… the city needs cash.

Guest
Inventory
4 years 27 days ago

Jan 16-17

West Vancouver

New Listings 47

Price Changes 2

Sold 2

Vancouver West

New Listings 208

Price Changes 16

Sold 28

Richmond

New Listings 129

Price Changes 17

Sold 20

North Van

New Listings 63

Price Changes 7

Sold 13

Burnaby

New Listings 70

Price Changes 14

Sold 16

Member
Best place on meth
4 years 27 days ago

@Patient renter:

That's funny, his own website lists it for $668K.

http://www.richardliu.ca/Properties.php/Details/1

Too lazy or too stupid to make the 2 numbers match up?

Guest
Relax
4 years 27 days ago

@ various people. Increasing the asking price is actually great strategy.

Poor (i.e. Non-HAM) probably set their search criteria by setting a price maximum.

However, rich people (i.e. HAM), probably set their search criteria by setting a price MINIMUM.

By increasing the price, you get your listing into the search results of richer people. Also, a higher asking price tricks people into thinking its a decent property.

Idiotic you say? Well, look at who would be buying into this market…targeting idiots is the only way to go

Member
4 years 27 days ago

hilarious how HGTV goes from airing shows like "The Big Flip" at the peak of the US bubble to now airing stuff like "For Rent." Nice contrarian indicator.

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