A Brief History of the Housing Bubble

A really good overview and analysis of the U.S. Housing Bubble at OCHousingnews.com. The build-up, collapse, stimulus/supply mgmt. and current double dip all covered in detail.

http://ochousingnews.com/news/a-brief-history-of-the-housing-bubble

From 2003 to 2006, American lenders and borrowers inflated a massive housing bubble. From 2007 to 2012, this bubble has been deflating, but the bottom is proving elusive. The housing market is closer to the bottom than to the top, and if a viable solution can be found to bring supply and demand into balance, the tremendous affordability from low prices and low interest rates will help a bottom form in the near term.

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blueskies
Guest
blueskies
4 years 7 months ago

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shanghai-new-home-p

from Garths' blog:
he of throbbing penetrating prose

shouldn't affect the wet coast…………

VMD
Member
4 years 7 months ago
Continuing on the Chinese bubble theme: [Bubble Watching: Hainan edition] mind-boggling amount of empty condos. "Local people said, however, that no local people would ever buy them. Those are for northerners. Asking local people on their views on when all these properties will be occupied, their answer is “never”. While Ordos, Zhengzhou new district and others have been popularised in Western media as the “ghost cities” of China, a manifestation of the Chinese property bubbles, empty properties are just too easily found in China, just probably not at that kind of scale as one could see in those now-famous ghost… Read more »
patriotz
Member
4 years 7 months ago

"if a viable solution can be found to bring supply and demand into balance"

That viable solution can be found near the front of any elementary economics textbook. It's called lower prices.

Meh
Guest
Meh
4 years 7 months ago

By The Limerick King

The China collapse has begun

The property trade is now done

Despite all the cheers

It's time for the tears

But blowing that bubble was fun!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shanghai-new-home-p
(From the comments section)

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 7 months ago

for those who keeps quoting Garth: sell your wife, she is in a bubble too!

Extremely rich Van h
Guest
4 years 7 months ago

@Meh:

Don't U know Great China has 20000 billion US in reserve.Us and Canada will collapse billion yrs ahead of our dear Motherland;For,Canada Chinese will help u guys to pull through the disaster if you guy cooperate with Chinese foreign and military policy.Leasing out Vanoucer to Chinese Navy would be a best antidose to help Canada.Chinese Army and Navy personnel will be shopping in Vancouver in millions.

chip
Guest
chip
4 years 7 months ago

@patriotz:

"That viable solution can be found near the front of any elementary economics textbook. It’s called lower prices."

Wouldn't it be nice if basic economics was taught in elementary school, from the effect of supply and demand on prices, to little words like debt, deficit, profit etc.

Why, at a time of record Canadian household debt and global economic crisis, is the UBC faculty of ed ramping up lessons on aboriginal history and social justice, but not basic economic literacy?

patriotz
Member
4 years 7 months ago
@chip: Well first of all there is not an inherent conflict between teaching social studies and anything else. Second universities don't determine what's taught in the schools, governments do. Which brings us to the third, governments really don't want the population to be economically literate because there are too many special interests they are beholden to – the RE industry being the most obvious one at the moment – who don't want that. Economic literacy used to be a necessary life skill which parents passed on to their children. We are now 3 generations past real hard times so that… Read more »
NoNo
Guest
NoNo
4 years 7 months ago

you forget how to make a hyper link?

crashcow
Member
4 years 7 months ago

Lastest Case-Shiller Housing data is out. Tampa, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Seattle all made new post-bubble lows in November.

Updated chart showing total peak-trough % drop by city:
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/1/31/u

Don't be a dick
Guest
Don't be a dick
4 years 7 months ago

@NoNo

You forget your manners, prick?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
4 years 7 months ago

Follow up to yesterdays Martin Armstrong real estate coverage thread.

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Global%20Rea

0x13
Guest
0x13
4 years 7 months ago

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1124059–canada-

I was a little taken aback by the description of "an average person" who at 56 (circa 2005) was in debt $140k. This was spread over 15CC and a home mortgage – hopefully most of the debt was the mortgage. Still who has 15CC? They probably have a part time job just checking the balance on all those CC.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
4 years 7 months ago
@crashcow: Vegas has clearly overshot fair value on the way down which often happens when a massive bubble burst. It looks like a good investment now. What do you say Vancouver homeowners, trade your run down hovel on Knight Street for 10 Vegas houses with swimming pools? Live in the nicest of the 10 and rent out the other 9 for gobs of income while you enjoy your early retirement in a warm , dry climate? Nah, never mind, you're too stupid to do that – in your dim minds there's no bubble in Vancouver because of <insert stupid <b>running… Read more »
alx
Member
alx
4 years 7 months ago

@0×13: In the article it says $140K was credit cards only. Mortgage was extra.

crashcow
Member
4 years 7 months ago

googled "china home prices."

smiling.

Devore
Member
Devore
4 years 7 months ago

Comment from unmentionable blog:

Sherry Cooper: “more like a balloon than a bubble. While bubbles always burst, a balloon often deflates slowly in the absence of a ‘pin’.”

DAVID LEREAH: “Balloons don’t burst. You can put air in a balloon and it can expand or you can deflate a balloon, where air comes out….But now air can come out of the balloon rather than the balloon popping.”

Who knew Sherry Cooper would be our David Lereah.

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in
4 years 7 months ago

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/01/31/canada-ho

Canada Housing Market Beginning To Resemble U.S.'s Subprime Mess, OSFI Documents Reveal

Mortgageslave
Guest
Mortgageslave
4 years 7 months ago

@Best place on meth

I've heard that the property taxes can be quite ridiculous in the US as cities aren't getting the tax money they used to. Anybody know what property taxes are on a 120K house in LasVegas?

VMD
Member
4 years 7 months ago
Developer in China cloned entire world-renowned Austrian town of Hallstatt, an UNESCO World Heritage Site. Unfortunately, it's not sellin'. Zero buyer. Nearby local residents are confounded by the "strange architecture" of this cloned town. "I don't understand why any rich people would want to live in this mediocre area" Developer had advertised "everyone in China wants to live here". Developer also planned to add sections that does not exist in Hallstatt, such as the entire street where Mozart was born. Austrians are understandably enraged when they heard their treasured town is being cloned. A complaint had been filed to UNESCO.… Read more »
VMD
Member
4 years 7 months ago

"in order to improve the realism of this piracy, the developer plans to introduce horse-drawn carriages and a lot of pigeons."

Yaya
Guest
Yaya
4 years 7 months ago

@VMD: "…and a lot of pigeons.”

Well, they'll never be hungry.. 🙄

patriotz
Member
4 years 7 months ago

@Mortgageslave:

Seem to be about 1%.

yvr2zrh
Member
4 years 7 months ago

Anyone want to have a look at V928909? any bet on which digit is extra? Looks like fat fingers at REBGV!!!

Anonymouse
Guest
Anonymouse
4 years 7 months ago

@patriotz:

"Which brings us to the third, governments really don’t want the population to be economically literate"

I like conspiracy theories.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 7 months ago

Interesting tidbit from the winnipegfreepress.com today.

"At Sept. 30, CMHC had insured $541 billion in loans compared with $501 billion a year earlier and $514 billion as of Dec. 31, 2010. Under the National Housing Act, the agency is limited to $600 billion in total outstanding insured amounts."

Will the CMHC be allowed to raise their limit or is this finally nearing an end?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 7 months ago

@DEFAULT NAME:

Is the Pope Catholic?

rp1
Guest
rp1
4 years 7 months ago

#7 @chip: For what it's worth, I don't see how you could approach a discussion of social justice without economic literacy.

rp1
Guest
rp1
4 years 7 months ago

#27 @DEFAULT NAME: Pope, we're waiting on a response for that. Kidding.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 7 months ago

#24,

i thought you are busy packing to get your 100% salary increase in europe. no?

Troll
Guest
Troll
4 years 7 months ago

@Best place on meth:

What do you say Vancouver homeowners, trade your run down hovel on Knight Street for 10 Vegas houses with swimming pools?

Live in the nicest of the 10 and rent out the other 9 for gobs of income while you enjoy your early retirement in a warm , dry climate?

How many Las Vegas homes do you own?

dodge
Guest
dodge
4 years 7 months ago

Troll: "How many Las Vegas homes do you own?"

Priceless 🙂

Brainburst
Guest
Brainburst
4 years 7 months ago

@Troll:

None, they are still fairly overpriced. I'll wait for LV houses to come down 43.5% of their current price before I revisit my risk plan and decide either to buy a few of them or wait a bit longer let them go down even more. No rush on my side.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
4 years 7 months ago

@Troll:

>>>How many Las Vegas homes do you own?<<<

Same number as I own in Vancouver, therefore I can't take advantage of this once in a lifetime 1 for 10 trade opportunity.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
4 years 7 months ago

Sales look dead today, MLS must be malfunctioning.

No wait, listings are brisk – everything is just fine.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
4 years 7 months ago

Cheerleaders say Vancouver can't have a crash because of low interest rates.

Well cheerleaders, please don't take any notice of the 2.97% 15 year fixed on the right hand side.

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/NV-Las-Vegas-hom

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 7 months ago

BPOM, go sucked your fresh milk. it's due.

Troll
Guest
Troll
4 years 7 months ago

@Best place on meth:

Same number as I own in Vancouver

So you're either broke or too chicken to take advantage of this huge 'opportunity'? Which is it?

Makaya
Member
Makaya
4 years 7 months ago

@DEFAULT NAME:

"BPOM, go sucked your fresh milk. it’s due."

Are you irritated by the sales number today? Or maybe it's the inventory building up?

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in
4 years 7 months ago

I cannot wait for the end of the month statistics…

Do you know any good URL, apart from Larry's?

Makaya
Member
Makaya
4 years 7 months ago

@jumpin in: I guess this site is the best, just wait for paulb to provide the #s tonight and VMD to provide his daily stats.

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in
4 years 7 months ago

This video is for Sherry Cooper to reflect on metaphors: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qp94Nqzu0dc&featur

I will send her the link, telling her how scared I feel. http://www.sherrycooper.com/
economics.department@bmonb.com

VMD
Member
4 years 7 months ago

@Makaya:

it would be BPOM/ZRH2YVR/Jesse/VHB in addition to paulB that provide most of the stats/analyses : )

I'd love to have alternate access to stats too..

a realtor friend will come in handy..

Turkey
Guest
Turkey
4 years 7 months ago

Paraphrasing Trevor Bodie, on CBC, just now:

"Nobody's able to envision a Vancouver post-housing-boom. What the heck *is* Vancouver if property values aren't rising all the time?"

This was a short item discussing the departure of Brent Todarian, the director of planning. It'll probably show up here:

http://www.cbc.ca/onthecoast/episodes/

vangrl
Member
vangrl
4 years 7 months ago

OMG, even after all of these dire news reports this week, Global is completely PUMPING real estate right now!!!

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
4 years 7 months ago

@Troll:

>>>So you’re either broke or too chicken to take advantage of this huge ‘opportunity’? Which is it?<<<

You poor, angry, illiterate troll.

Which part of What do you say Vancouver homeowners, trade your run down hovel on Knight Street for 10 Vegas houses with swimming pools? did you not comprehend?

Was it the word "homeowner" or "trade"?

And here I thought you were just obnoxious but it turns out you're actually a complete moron with zero comprehension skills.

yvr2zrh
Member
4 years 7 months ago
Couple of thoughts for month end. – We're down about 20% in volume over last year. – Worst volume decreases are Van-West and Richmond detached. Van-West did pick up a bit in past 2 weeks but will still be down about 50%. – Listings in the last part of month were in line with history while first 2 weeks was very very high. Thus, listings were up quite a bit over last year and are likely a record January. – CNY likely had some impact. Would be interested if anyone has specific anecdotes from the street. However, based on the… Read more »
vangrl
Member
vangrl
4 years 7 months ago
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
4 years 7 months ago

@vangrl:

So much for astrology, lucky numbers and any other bullshit they base life decisions on.

They would have been better off if this was the Year of the Hospice.

paulb.
Guest
paulb.
4 years 7 months ago

New Listings 278

Price Changes 88

Sold Listings 112

TI:13442

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

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