BC Assessments for 2012

BC Assessments are available for viewing for a limited time. These are based on sales at and around July 2011. A little bird told me a few people are getting some interesting increases in the mail. Given our collective nous, perhaps we can figure out which property types and neighbourhoods are going to see some marked increases in property tax outlays this year and give some guesses as to how much. Remember that the City of Vancouver uses 3 year averaging and that it’s the assessment value relative to all other properties, not the absolute value, that determines property tax outlay. As well there has been a shift in property taxes from businesses to households, something that is slated to end this year. One might think that a few households are going to be rather upset if redistribution were to continue.

I haven’t looked at the numbers yet but my guess is that detached houses, especially in west side neighbourhoods, are going to see the biggest tax rise this year, with condos seeing the least rise.

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Derek
Derek
8 years ago

It is just insanity in Vancouver. People who don't sell in this market are insane, I just sold my 4th condo. Time to get out of the bubble. This made me laugh.

My property value will never go down

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-4nJsmdZQw

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N
N
8 years ago

@Meh:

Yes, I know a couple like that. They were scraping by, with various small jobs like teaching, but for most of the past 10 years, they have simply been borrowing more and more against their house. They would, otherwise, have continued to work or have been counted as unemployed.

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[…] “Friend tells me the assessment of his Cambie corridor house has almost quadrupled in value over the last few years – now up to $2 million. The entertaining thing: he’s terrified because he doesn’t know how to pay the property taxes. He may have to get a real job. Basically he’s considered himself retired for the last couple of years due to all this property appreciation (he’s in his early 40s).” – 604x at vancouvercondo.info 12 Jan 2012 at 8:55pm […]

Meh
Meh
8 years ago

@604x: They could be doing something illegal or grey market, too. Or sponging off family wealth. But if they are living entire off home equity, consider them on suicide watch if the market crashes.

604x
604x
8 years ago

@rp1 & @Meh:

The Cambie corridor guy does occasional contract work to pay the bills. They don't have many toys (they keep talking about a boat and a place in the islands). They seem to struggle with every major bill/expense but still manage a fairly swamk vacation each year – sometimes two. They have a HELOC. They have not paid down their debt/credit line in years – maybe 6-7 years. This market has carried their lifestyle. They are the cliché real estate household that we read about.

Meh
Meh
8 years ago

@Devore: Are they right on, or next to, Cambie? Or just near Cambie? We don't know for sure they are in a house already earmarked for higher density. If not, all the redevelopment will do is have several apartments overlooking their backyard.

Devore
Devore
8 years ago

@DEFAULT NAME:

In every other real estate correction in BC the most attractive areas which went up the most in the boom had the biggest corrections.

Cambie corridor has gone up for other reasons as well (potential densification). While actual development will probably be postponed, if RE market softens significantly and speculative demand for pre-sale condos falls off, those plans are still there.

Meh
Meh
8 years ago

@rp1: HELC, I assume.

Meh
Meh
8 years ago

@604x: Both of them. Just amazing. They obviously didn't have meaningful careers or they wouldn't feel the great need to avoid work. Getting that old work ethic back is gonna quite the ordeal for them. Its a tough economy out there and employers are gonna wonder what the hell they've been doing, and why they should get hired instead of a fresh-faced, easily-molded 20-something.

They aren't in a comfy situation if property taxes are stressing them, not matter how much make-believe wealth they have. I know I'm getting nosy but are they living modestly, or is their garage full of toys? I'm assuming they don't have children (please no).

rp1
rp1
8 years ago

@604x: "Basically he’s considered himself retired for the last couple of years due to all this property appreciation (he’s early 40s)."

How does he pay his bills?

Lilypad
Lilypad
8 years ago

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http://tinyurl.com/6aof3sp

How apropo…

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@604x: "However I can’t imagine the Cambie corridor falling too badly so they’ll do okay."

In every other real estate correction in BC the most attractive areas which went up the most in the boom had the biggest corrections. Forget about not going up anymore, your friends should adjust their retirement plans for a 50% hair cut on their retirement fund (house).

VHB
VHB
8 years ago

Jan-2012

Total days 21

Days elapsed so far 8

Weekends / holidays 4

Days missing 0

Days remaining 13

7 Day Moving Average: Sales 64

7 Day Moving Average: Listings 288

SALES

Sales so far 460

Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 832

Projected month end total 1292 +/- 256

NEW LISTINGS

Listings so far 2220

Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 3749

Projected month end total 5969 +/- 868

Sell-list so far 20.7%

Projected month-end sell-list 21.6%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

Inventory as of Jan 12, 2012 11879

MoI at this sales pace 9.19

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@Re-diculous: "Summary: no one knows how bad this might get."

Lots of people know including many around here. The talking heads just don't want to discuss in public.

604x
604x
8 years ago

@Meh: yes, this is hiding a shadow unemployment situation. The guy's wife has basically retired and hasn't worked in over a year. If they don't sell before the collapse then they're going to be in a tough spot. However I can't imagine the Cambie corridor falling too badly so they'll do okay. They wont have enough to last through retirement however so they'll have to face this sooner or later. Of course, they're complete real estate addicts so any type of rational conversation on this topic is impossible. They firmly believe real estate only ever goes up. Period. Conversation over. You're a fool to think otherwise.

They'll probably learn the hard way.

604x
604x
8 years ago

@DEFAULT:

Tax Rates don't go out til February 2 in Vancouver so no one will know their tax bill til then. The big jump in assessed value is freaking lots of people out, however the tax rate might go down so the overall increase will be something less…..until a few years from now when property values drop and city expenses continue ever-upward. That is when people are really going to squeal and city hall will have to face their out-of-control cost situation.

ulsterman
8 years ago

@604x:

The entertaining thing: he’s terrified because he doesn’t know how to pay the property taxes. He may have to get a real job. Basically he’s considered himself retired for the last couple of years due to all this property appreciation (he’s early 40s)

He may be "terrified" but i'm sure selling his place and banking his million or so tax free will help him to calm down. I wish i had his problem.

pricedoutfornow
pricedoutfornow
8 years ago

@604x:

Heard something interesting on CBC radio today. Thursdays they interview this financial planner from VanCity. Today he mentioned a little-known subsection of the BC Assessment Act which will allow an owner whose property has increased by a substantial amount due to something like development in the area, to get his property assessed at a lower amount. This would apply to those who have lived in their house for over 10 years. Hm.

jumping in
jumping in
8 years ago

Completely out of topic, but I could not resist sharing this one.

http://www.businessinsider.com/dsk-prostitutes-na

And some people expected him to solve the Euro crisis… 🙂

Meh
Meh
8 years ago

"Basically he’s considered himself retired for the last couple of years due to all this property appreciation (he’s early 40s)."

You know, I've suspected certain people of this behaviour. It kind of explains why we don't have a very high unemployment rate despite a crappy economy (outside of grow-ops and condo construction).

What are these people going to do if (when) years of appreciation evaporates? If you don't work for a few years, it must be hard to get back in the swing of things as an older worker. Beginning again at 45 or 50 or whatever. Imagine that. Normally someone in this situation had great misfortune like a layoff or injury. But this…this is self-inflicted due to stupidity.

The Leak
The Leak
8 years ago

604X…kick arse tune 🙂 Beck's da man!

604x
604x
8 years ago

We're on the edge of cracking 12,000 listing – adding 1,000 net listings in 7 business days. That's gotta be a record. (Or is it normal to see an extreme ramp in listings in early January?)

Hey Jesse could you eyeball your database for the ramp of listings in January in 2008 and 2009 – they're the only possible comparables to this party.

I feel a bit giddy. Time for some Beck.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgSPaXgAdzE&fe