Carney cries wolf again.. will it come?
Mark Carney is making new remarks about some Canadian real estate markets being “probably overvalued“.
It was the second time in recent days that Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney voiced concern about property prices, which surged after the financial crisis as borrowing costs tumbled.
“We see that in a number of real estate markets in Canada, valuations are at a minimum, firm; in others, they’re probably overvalued. So there are risks there. We’re watching it closely. We’re working with our partners, the federal government, the superintendent of financial institutions,” he said in an interview on “Question Period” on CTV.“Measures have been taken. They’ve been effective. We’ll keep up that vigilance. If more needs to be done, I’m sure the appropriate authorities will take those measures.”
The federal government has tightened mortgage regulations several times in a bid to prevent a property bubble from forming. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on January 17 that the government is watching the housing market closely and is ready to intervene if needed, but is not about to do so now.
Yes, the federal government has tightened mortgage regulations “several times”.. Here’s a timeline of those changes courtesy of Burbs Boy:
Jan 2006 – Minority Conservative Government elected
Feb 2006 – 25 year increase to 30 year on test basis
Jul 2006 – 30 year test affirmed and also increased to 35 year
Jul 2007 – 35 year increase to 40 year
Oct 2008 – 40 year decrease to 35 year
Mar 2010 – 35 year decrease to current 30 year
This post was submitted by wreckonomics.
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Carney cries wolf again.. will it come? » Modern Vancouver Mortgages Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 11:47 am
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January 24th, 2012 at 12:10 am
Could someone give names of RE forums where we could troll massively?
Just for fun
Realtors have been doing the same here lately.
I only know RE talk.
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:48 pm
VMD "Thanks Crashcow, this is going straight to a new thread at the Chinese forum. Just trying to add some spark to the Chinese New Year holiday discussion ; )"
that thread made me laugh, thanks for that!
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Re: My Post #83 – -
Final sale should have said Jan 2012 and not 2011. This was a recent transaction.
There are actually many like this out there.
Separately – I have to say I was pretty sickened by the insert in the Vancouver Sun yesterday. The Chinese New Year insert was nothing more than a Real Estate advertising section. It was completely rediculous. I think the industry can really see that without Chinese money – this market is dead in the water now, taking on water and sinking. It was in this section that the article mentioning that the Chinese are coming was included. What a POS this section was. Anyhow – - – Tuesday is here now and we should see all the effects of the 100's of cash sales that occurred on the weekend to the HAM which arrived last week. Give me a break.
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:15 pm
@604x
Thanks for posting… those letters are well written. I've sent a few to the media regarding tax-evasion. But I think I'll try sending some like yours.
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:12 pm
“the other three offers that were declared Sunday evening have decided not to go forward.”
That's an old realtors' trick. Don't ever fall for the "…just so you know, there ARE other interested parties" Phoney BS.
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Interesting post on the Chinese speaking RE forum, regarding sales in Richmond:
Year in an aircraft of migratory birds fly north, the New Year after an aircraft of migratory birds flying south again
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:55 pm
ok, I went a little nutty. Four letter templates are now posted in the VCI Forum:
http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/letter-wri…
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Interesting Realtor conversations documented @ Larry's site:
Sunday AM
Buyer’s Realtor® – “We’d like to make an offer!”
Seller’s Realtor® – “Ok that’s great but, I need to tell you that three others who visited the weekend open house have also declared their intent to make an offer as well,” said the listing agent.
“Oh – well then, I will inform the buyers I’m representing to advise them that you expect multiple offers – I’ll get back to you with their decision.”
Sunday PM
Buyer’s Realtor® – “The buyers I’m representing have decided that they do not want to participate in a multiple offer situation.” “Thanks for your time and good luck with your multiples.”
Monday AM
Seller’s Realtor® phones. “Would your buyer’s reconsider their decision?”
Buyer’s Realtor® – “Why?”
Seller’s Realtor® somewhat embarrassed – “the other three offers that were declared Sunday evening have decided not to go forward.”
http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/01/vancouver-ho…
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:50 pm
@zrh2yvr:
Thank you Zrh2yvr, this went straight to another new thread to the Chinese forum. I'm such a troll.
Did a quick summary,
-70,000 from reno
-3,132 from property tax
-43,950 (5%) from realtor fees/closing costs (does 5% sound right?)
Total~ – 117,000 or -13.3% (not including mortgage interest/insurance payments)
<a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2 Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Fp%3D3869974%2Flang%3Dschinese.html%233869974&act=url” target=”_blank”>http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&…” target=”_blank”>Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Fp%3D3869974%2Flang%3Dschinese.html%233869974&act=url
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:41 pm
@ #82 That is a really nice place. But $20M???? Absolutely nutty. Much nicer available in a thousand locations around the globe. Carribean. South France. You might be able to purchase Arizona for that.
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:44 pm
A couple of nights ago @WTF! submitted enough comments about tax evasion of speculators that I got pissed off and wrote a letter. I've posted the letter to the VCI FORUM under its own section "Letters" (keyword "elbowing back"). The strategy of the letters: hit them where it hurts – m-o-n-e-y.
Copy, update and mail if you get bored. It needs follow-up parallel letters to other departments. Let's try to get to those in coming days.
Vive la revolution!
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:21 pm
@Brainburst:
Actually, the entire website looks like The Little Shop of Horrors .
http://www.manyeelui.com/index.php
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Richmond sale today – - Failed Flip
10160 Dennis –
Sold Feb 2011 – $879,000
listed Aug 2011 – $1,098,000
Sold Jan 2011 – $879,000
one year, no gain, out of pocket for costs – and, listing says that seller spent $70,000 on repairs and renos.
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:12 pm
@zrh2yvr:
It could be this one, staged with Chinese furniture.
http://www.manyeelui.com/Properties.php/Details/8…
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:08 pm
@crashcow:
Thanks Crashcow, this is going straight to a new thread at the Chinese forum. Just trying to add some spark to the Chinese New Year holiday discussion ; )
<a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2 Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Ft%3D422633%2Flang%3Dschinese.html&act=url” target=”_blank”>http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&…” target=”_blank”>Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Ft%3D422633%2Flang%3Dschinese.html&act=url
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Larry's numbers
Vancouver East & West*
New Listings – 115
Back On Market Listings – 1
Price Changes – 15
Sold Listings – 27
Vancouver All Areas*
New Listings – 307
Back On Market Listings – 2
Price Changes – 53
Sold Listings – 73
*Attached & Detached – Date: 01/23/2012 Time: 20:55 Pacific YatterMatters.com: Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:56 pm
@Makaya:
Exactomundo.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Well – - House on Belmont sold today for pretty much $20M.
This is just one thing to remember that in this month of record low sales volume, we had a house that sold for an amount that will bring the average across the whole market up by $45,000 – So – Don't expect the Larry and REBGV graph to show as much of a decrease this month (we would have been down likely another 3-4% but this may counter-balance it to keep it flat).
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:53 pm
@Makaya: On that same article, they're running a poll with the question "will the market crash"?
So far, 70% of the people answered yes…
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:50 pm
And here is another MSM bearish article…
Prediction: The Canadian housing market will crash
Here is an interesting quote from the article:
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:40 pm
@crashcow Says: What a gutsy magazine cover that Canadian Business just put out!
Yes. I was shopping at Safeway on the weekend, made sure I spread four or five all over the magazine rack at eye level. Quite catchy.
Got to keep the agitprop up, with what little we have.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:38 pm
@longorshort: "I don’t have real time data but can say that there is limited supply of reasonable priced detached in better areas"
There has been NO supply of reasonable priced detached in ANY areas of the lower mainland for 8 or 9 years. However there will be lots coming soon.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:35 pm
Did I miss Paul's numbers tonight?
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:33 pm
What a gutsy magazine cover that Canadian Business just put out!
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/issue/66623–issu…
And here's the article:
"Prediction: The Canadian housing market will crash"
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/65694–pr…
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:33 pm
@mac: Some people (realtor I guess) are still bullish…
lol…
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:27 pm
@DEFAULT NAME: Can you say: CMHC (Chinese Mainlanders Hose Canadians)
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:26 pm
@mac: Saying that there's a 'flow of free money from banks to morons' suggests the banks have something to loose. They don't, but you do!
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:24 pm
I have always been convinced that Tsur invested a lot of his money in RE, since he is always pumping so hard. By the way, he is hired by UBC, who is also having a vested interest in RE.
After the ghosts at the hospice, we are believing in dragons for our economic forecasts:
http://eedition.vancouver.24hrs.ca/epaper/viewer….
and in Feng Shui for RE forecasts:
http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/Savvy+buyers+f…
We are walking on the head. I see two possible outcomes: the RE market implodes, or racial tensions explode. It happened before in many other countries. I could never understand why us Canadians believe "it is different here." Everyone is entitled to learn from history books.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:20 pm
@ vangrl Says: "oh man, and Global just announced they are launching a mandarin news channel "
Funny, I read a few days ago that Global was applying for a 'local BC' 24 hour news channel. I guess that now 'local' means Mandarin.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:19 pm
@Makaya:
This guy drives me nuts. Like every other sales agent he holds both opinions simultaneously. He loves to tease bears and then accuse them of getting ahead of themselves. I hope he's right but if he's not he'll just refer back 3 posts ago and say he called it when he said planeloads of rich buyers were coming to his Marine Dr. listings.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:16 pm
@RippedtoShit:
Unfortunately, unbelievably, I don't think it will happen until the flow of free money from banks to morons is stopped.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Interesting predictions from Larry:
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:40 am
haha, that's true (mac)!:-)
I do so want this market to fucking crap out. It's been a long wait. I have a masters in finance, and to be the greater fool who did not buy into this (soon to be) mess has been wearing on me. Other parts of life have been great, but fuck this shit, I bet the farm on fundamentals and now I want to harvest my crop!!
Bring it on.
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:30 am
@RippedtoShit:
RJ,
You see for sale signs in your sleep.
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:28 am
this country should not be a dumping ground for rich/corrupt criminals to hide in.
so what, maybe he wants some ethnic diversity.
what is wrong with that, you xenophobic mantangoe?
let's just hope this crash drives back the worst of the worse in a hurry.
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:04 am
"oh man, and Global just announced they are launching a mandarin news channel starting tonight at 7"
i bet in a few years mandarin will be mandatory in the schools in Van
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:02 am
"I hadn’t been to Oakridge Mall for one year.
I went today, and found it pretty traumatizing."
what happend? Did Dragon scared you from the window displays?
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:56 am
I hadn't been to Oakridge Mall for one year.
I went today, and found it pretty traumatizing.
I kept saying to myself: I want to move back East, I want to move back East, etc.
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:55 am
oh man, and Global just announced they are launching a mandarin news channel starting tonight at 7….can only imagine the pumping that's going to happen on that show.
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:37 am
Meth:
Incredible.
I'm noticing more and more For Sale signs on lawns on the west side, and few ugly orange stickers.
That said, I've been excited this time of year before and the orange stickers had babies.
Here's hoping that this year is the one that goes down in history as the year reality struck back.
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:37 am
@vangrl:
This is all so funny to me. Global running stories on Vancouver being the 2nd most unaffordable city in the world. Story on ultra-low rates driving another RE boom. At the same time.. Prices dropping like stones in Okanagen and Whistler and Van Isle. Sales, lists and inventories running at the worst we've seen in a decade here in Vancouver. Anyone running into the market today to lock in these "promo" rates is basically standing naked on the train tracks. It looks like any faint hope of a soft landing is being quickly eliminated, and a full scale crash is an inevitability.
And for that, I'd like to thank (in no particular order): the federal govt., CMHC, the RE cartel, the big 5 banks, MSM, mortgage brokers, and the delusional populace of Canada. You have all conspired to bring about one of the largest transfers of wealth we may ever see in our lifetime. It is now a fait accomplis, just a matter of how soon and how bad. The lemmings shall be crushed, and the liquid will reap the rewards.
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:25 am
@vangrl:
I think Realtors know that unless the next couple months are relatively hot, it's going to get ugly…hence their desperation to help things along
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:23 am
@vangrl:
>>>Had a realtor on saying it was her busiest January yet!<<<
It was. Listings are on a record pace.
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:21 am
And the award for the best article and best journalist of 2012 so far goes to…
http://eedition.vancouver.24hrs.ca/epaper/viewer….
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:18 am
seriously can't believe that Global just pushed Van real estate again after all of these warning signs lately. Had a realtor on saying it was her busiest January yet!
so irresponsible