Carney cries wolf again.. will it come?

Mark Carney is making new remarks about some Canadian real estate markets being “probably overvalued“.

It was the second time in recent days that Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney voiced concern about property prices, which surged after the financial crisis as borrowing costs tumbled.
“We see that in a number of real estate markets in Canada, valuations are at a minimum, firm; in others, they’re probably overvalued. So there are risks there. We’re watching it closely. We’re working with our partners, the federal government, the superintendent of financial institutions,” he said in an interview on “Question Period” on CTV.

“Measures have been taken. They’ve been effective. We’ll keep up that vigilance. If more needs to be done, I’m sure the appropriate authorities will take those measures.”
The federal government has tightened mortgage regulations several times in a bid to prevent a property bubble from forming. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on January 17 that the government is watching the housing market closely and is ready to intervene if needed, but is not about to do so now.

Yes, the federal government has tightened mortgage regulations “several times”.. Here’s a timeline of those changes courtesy of Burbs Boy:

Jan 2006 – Minority Conservative Government elected
Feb 2006 – 25 year increase to 30 year on test basis
Jul 2006 – 30 year test affirmed and also increased to 35 year
Jul 2007 – 35 year increase to 40 year
Oct 2008 – 40 year decrease to 35 year
Mar 2010 – 35 year decrease to current 30 year

96 Responses to “Carney cries wolf again.. will it come?”

  1. VMD Says:

    In other government news:

    [Government belt tightening could eliminate 60,000 jobs: study]

    Mon, 1/23/2012

    - I wish no one would suffer the shock of job loss… but it seems like CMHC may also be on the chopping board..

    “More than 60,000 jobs are guaranteed to disappear somewhere in Canada,” Macdonald wrote.

    Macdonald predicts many of the job cuts will make it more difficult for such vulnerable Canadians as aboriginal peoples and low-income earners to access government services.

    … The plan, which is designed to trim government spending by $4 billion, will be unveiled in Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s budget, expected in February or March.

    However, the process has been cloaked in such secrecy that even many top civil servants have been left in the dark.

    …In scenario two, Macdonald looks at what would happen if the government tries to get its savings solely by cutting transfers to organizations.

    “Eligible transfers would see a hit of 30 per cent in order to fully cover the remaining $6 billion in cuts,” wrote Macdonald, predicting the Canadian International Development Agency’s budget could be cut by almost a billion dollars. Among those who could also see millions of dollars worth of cuts under that scenario are the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Health Canada, the CBC, Agriculture and Agrifood Canada and the Department of Canadian Heritage

    … The result would be job losses in both the public service and the private sector, as not-for-profit corporations, professional services companies and outsourcing agencies lay off staff, Macdonald said.

    http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/01/23/government-bel…

    Current score: 15
  2. VMD Says:

    Oh by the way, Happy Lunar New Year!

    Jan 22 – Jan 29 is China's official Stat holiday for Chinese New Year. Will it live up to our media's lofty expectations…?

    Current score: 14
  3. Anonymous Says:

    WTF is this supposed to mean?

    "Measures have been taken. They’ve been effective. We’ll keep up that vigilance. If more needs to be done, I’m sure the appropriate authorities will take those measures."

    What measures have been taken? What measures will be taken? I am thinking barn and horse if he talking preventing a collapse or is he thinking of some type of measure similar to the US where they bail out the banks after?

    Current score: 3
  4. fixie guy Says:

    The Harper government is using the current environment – which as a small, resource rich country we should sail through had our economy not been actively mismanaged – as justification to start dismantling social services? Who could have predicted that? Cutting health, heritage, agriculture and the Harper-critical CBC should fix the mess they made with housing.

    At least the trains run on time.

    Current score: 8
  5. Apocarypse Mao Says:

    "Savvy buyers from Asia find B.C. attractive. Many parents find purchasing a home for students makes sense" Van Sun Jan 23/12

    Lot's of weasel words here:

    "Experts say…." no mention of who these experts are.

    "Chinese… will most definitely push the demands in Vancouver's real estate market up to new heights in the coming year of 2012." No stats, data, or sources cites cited.

    "Many Chinese parents… are sending their children to study overseas in Canada" How many? Stats?

    "Many Chinese parents have chosen to purchase properties… in providing a stable home for the children" How many?

    Oh yeah and the byline is:"Submitted by the BC Real Estate Convention"

    Frustrating that these 'submitted' (and sloppy) articles get printed so easily.

    Current score: 36
  6. SunBlaster Says:

    Canadians will get what they voted for, so please don't complain!

    Last time I checked the voting count majority didn't care about their social services, as long as the bubble keeps inflating!

    Current score: 4
  7. Apocarypse Mao Says:

    Oops link:

    http://www.vancouversun.com/entertainment/Savvy+b…

    Current score: 5
  8. TPFKAA Says:

    24 hours of today says that Chinese mainlanders on a new year's visit will increase sales for rest of month. Tsur Somerville and Maddox development sales manager cited. They say it's been the trend for years. (Sorry not verbatim but I have the report second hand from someone. If anyone has the paper maybe they could chime in).

    I thought we just agreed there has been no statistically significant CNY impact on sales at all??

    Great article, guaranteed to increase listings. I had no idea the bears had so many secret agents in the bull camp. Tsur is proving to be a most effective mole.

    Current score: 6
  9. TPFKAA Says:

    @TPFKAA:

    Online version:

    http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/News/local/2012/01/22/1…

    Current score: 3
  10. Best place on meth Says:

    Gung Hay Fat Choy everyone!

    And remember, there is no year of the bear in the Chinese calendar because real estate never goes down. :)

    Current score: 22
  11. TPFKAA Says:

    @TPFKAA:

    "Julia Rowell, sales manager at downtown Vancouver’s Maddox development, said this phenomenon has been going on for over 25 years, but 2012 looks to be especially busy."

    HAHAHAHAHA! That's absolutely hilarious!!

    So in 1987, (a full five years before Deng Xiaoping's reforms that enabled creation of individual fortunes) HAM from mainland China was increasing sales just after CNY.

    /facepalm.

    Current score: 23
  12. coastal Says:

    Carney is trying to send the message as calmly as possible saying the US will never recover and if you own too much house and debt : you are screwed.

    With the US Treasury bond auctions down big last week, the signs are pointing to the inevitable, that higher interest rates are a given to attract debt buyers. May not happen til the fall or year end but Carney knows it's coming and when it does it is going to get ugly.

    Current score: 14
  13. Carney cries wolf again.. will it come? | Vancouver Peak Says:

    [...] wreckonomics for Vancouver Condo Info, 2012. | Permalink | 2 comments | Add to del.icio.us Post [...]

    Current score: -4
  14. Anonymous Says:

    @fixie guy: "as justification to start dismantling social services? Who could have predicted that?"

    We know you predicted it. Still waiting 6 years into the Harper government.

    Current score: -9
  15. fixie guy Says:

    14 DEFAULT NAME Says: " Still waiting 6 years into the Harper government."

    Your wait is over. Let me help you read:

    "Macdonald predicts many of the job cuts will make it more difficult for such vulnerable Canadians as aboriginal peoples and low-income earners to access government services."

    "Among those who could also see millions of dollars worth of cuts under that scenario are the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Health Canada, the CBC, Agriculture and Agrifood Canada and the Department of Canadian Heritage.."

    Current score: 4
  16. Meh Says:

    @TPFKAA: I have to wonder if Julia Rowell was even alive 25 years ago. Some hack told her some BS and she believes its. Probably a kid who got her sales job for her looks, not brains.

    Current score: 16
  17. Meh Says:

    @Meh: Also, note Julia Rowell is probably not Asian, unless she married a white guy. Would a real Chinese person say this crap? I bet not.

    Current score: 1
  18. NoCondo Says:

    Toronto's FML LISTINGS:

    http://fmlistings.tumblr.com/

    someone needs to start one for Vancouver — i'm sure an equivalent tumblr for this market would be chocked full of greater insanity. actually, this kind of brings back memories of Vancouver (Un)Real Estate — that blog had some posts like this.

    Current score: 5
  19. Patient renter Says:

    @TPFKAA

    Seems to me that they're counting their chickens….

    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/23/china-r…

    Current score: 2
  20. patriotz Says:

    @Best place on meth:

    "Gung Hay Fat Choy everyone!"

    That's so Hong Kong.

    gōng xǐ fā cái :-)

    Current score: 10
  21. vangrl Says:

    "Gung Hay Fat Choy everyone!

    And remember, there is no year of the bear in the Chinese calendar because real estate never goes down"

    time to build some more hospices

    Current score: 17
  22. Best place on meth Says:

    I heard on the radio this morning that Weststone Properties is giving away a new car with the purchase of a new condo in Langley.

    But for a limited time only. :)

    Current score: 28
  23. specialfx3000 Says:

    @Best place on meth:

    "But for a limited time only"

    I think the limited time offer means that in a few months, if the crap still sits unsold, they will also give you a bike, a canoe, and maybe some Mac&Cheese coupons.

    Current score: 20
  24. jesse Says:

    @TPFKAA: "I thought we just agreed there has been no statistically significant CNY impact on sales at all"

    If they are claiming that sales after CNY are greater than before, well, of course they are because CNY takes place near the beginning of the year, in the winter, when sales are seasonally slow anyways. Full marks for correlation, part marks for causality. Certainly not a line of thought I'd include in a dissertation without more careful reasoning and analysis.

    Current score: 9
  25. jesse Says:

    新年快樂! 恭禧發財

    Current score: 0
  26. rp1 Says:

    @Best place on meth: "I heard on the radio this morning that Weststone Properties is giving away a new car with the purchase of a new condo in Langley."

    It begins.

    Current score: 12
  27. VMD Says:

    @Best place on meth:

    ah, Serenade.

    I posted the JPG file of their deal back in Dec:

    - live mortgage free for 1 year

    - let us pay your mortgages, taxes and strata fees

    - brand new car

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yR6_eNyUtjQ/Ts_k4qf0mDI…

    Current score: 17
  28. NoCondo Says:

    NEWLYWEDS: Renting Could Be The Smartest Move For Your Future Finances

    The old American Dream of prancing down the wedding aisle and straight into your dream home has quickly become a thing of the past.

    In today's economy, renting is all the rage. In fact, apartment vacancy rates have fallen from 8 percent in 2009 to just 5.6 percent at the end of 2011, according to Zillow.com.

    Speaking of the housing market, although mortgage rates are the lowest they've been in years, don't get swept up in any sales pitch that tries to convince you these offers "are not going to last forever!"

    "It is my feeling that the housing market will continue to struggle till around 2016 or so, at which point, we'd be lucky to see modest gains," said Adam Koos of Libertas Wealth Management.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/newlyweds-renting-…

    Current score: 7
  29. MadasHell Says:

    Cash is pouring into housing, while businesses are starved for capital. Financial markets seem to be turned upside down, creating dangerously skewed incentives that threaten to knock the economy off stride.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business…

    Remember their name when the econoy crashes, Mr. Carney and Mr. Flaherty

    Current score: 16
  30. patriotz Says:

    @Best place on meth:

    "I heard on the radio this morning that Weststone Properties is giving away bundling a new car with the purchase of a new condo in Langley"

    That's better. And yes, we've seen this movie before.

    Current score: 16
  31. Anonymous Says:

    @Patient renter:

    "Rents — the cost of living in the unit — exercise a sort of gravitational pull on prices. That's because people won't pay far more to own a home than to rent a similar one, unless they think prices will keep soaring — a view that's a sure sign of casino mentality, and never lasts."…hmmm…now where else is this happening??

    Current score: 12
  32. no name Says:

    @patriotz:

    quatteo is paying your mortgage for a year. soon that will be 2, then 4 and they go kaput. hohoho xmas is earlu this year.

    Current score: 1
  33. jumping in Says:

    "I heard on the radio this morning that Weststone Properties is giving away a new car with the purchase of a new condo in Langley."

    If they are targeting HAM, we should inform the developer that Air China does not allow HAM to take a car with them.

    Current score: 9
  34. Laibach Says:

    @jumping in:

    Local Realtors in conjunction with Air China are already setting up a car dealership at the airport to buy out those cars or exchange for the garden furniture and used mattresses to fill those places after businessman is gone back to China to make more money and come back next CNY to buy more RE.

    Current score: 4
  35. Makaya Says:

    And more bubble talk on the MSM:

    Connect the housing bubble dots: There could be trouble on CMHC’s horizon

    the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) has a realistic chance of putting the Canadian taxpayer at risk – unless meaningful changes are made.

    The key piece of background is that right now, a young couple can put down $20,000 to buy a $400,000 house, or five per cent of the purchase price. Their mortgage will be insured by CMHC (the Canadian government, also known as you and I) in exchange for a fee paid by the young couple.

    If that $400,000 house drops in value by 20 per cent, for example, which has happened before in Canada, it will be worth $320,000. But the couple will owe $380,000. Then the odds of them walking away from their house or defaulting on their mortgage become meaningful. Given that this young couple might be in the same position as 50,000 other young couples (about 3 per cent of the Canadian population) at roughly the same time, the odds of a surge in mortgage defaults is very real in Canada.

    A refreshing read for everyone…

    Current score: 19
  36. Anonymous Says:

    @fixie guy:

    Sounds like a real "dismantling of social services". You must work the government if this concerns you. Worried about your job maybe?

    Current score: -6
  37. Makaya Says:

    @Makaya: I should have copied the conclusion of that article as well:

    When we connect the dots and look at the real risk, the time has come for the federal government to do the prudent thing and raise the minimum equity payment from 5 per cent to 10 per cent, and at least minimize the hit from the riskiest segment of mortgages insured by CMHC.

    We can’t say we didn’t know, when the dots were right in front of us.

    Current score: 11
  38. Best place on meth Says:

    I'm guessing those planeloads of rich Chinese are just taking it easy today, filling up on dim sum, enjoying their holiday and trying hard to decide how many $3 million dollar houses to buy later this week.

    That would explain why there are 41 more houses listed today in Richmond/west side and only 1 total sale (in Richmond).

    Current score: 29
  39. pricedoutfornow Says:

    Had a chat today with a realtor in Kelowna. Last time we spoke, in the summer,she said "the market is dead, not much is selling." This time she moaned "The market is TERRIBLE" (she's been a realtor for over 25 years).

    I checked up on one acquaintance's valuation. Someone I know bought a condo presale a few years ago for $250k, $25k down. The valuation per BC Assessment? $174k. A similar unit to hers sold in October for $165k. Ouch….I know that she is underwater, I looked at the mortgage statement in 2010 and the balance was around $240k. The downpayment was eaten up by CMHC insurance and every year most of the payments ($1400/month) were being applied to interest rather than principal.

    She must be underwater by nearly $75k. Sadly, there are more and more stories like this coming out of places other than Vancouver. It is going to be bad and I think 2012 is the year it all starts.

    Current score: 31
  40. Best place on meth Says:

    @pricedoutfornow:

    >>>Sadly, there are more and more stories like this coming out of places other than Vancouver.<<<

    What do you mean "sadly"?

    This is awesome, I love hearing these stories!

    Current score: 15
  41. longorshort Says:

    @ bpom;

    maybe Van west and richmond is slow in the >$2m range but evidence of limited supply unlimited demand in other areas and more rational price points

    Current score: -9
  42. Best place on meth Says:

    @longorshort:

    Well let's see, east van shows 13 houses listed and 2 sales.

    Burnaby 8 listed, 0 sales.

    How far out should we be looking here?

    Current score: 14
  43. Anonymous Says:

    @Best place on meth:

    "How far out should we be looking here?"

    Well you could go all the way to China but it wouldn't look any better.

    Current score: 8
  44. Roomy Shopper Says:

    Hi forum,

    Would anyone be able to point me towards the following data:

    Looking for MOI over time for Vancouver, Richmond, Victoria, Sunshine Coast.

    Thanks!

    Current score: -3
  45. longorshort Says:

    @bpom "how far out"

    n van, I don't have real time data but can say that there is limited supply of reasonable priced detached in better areas and what little is/was on the market has been selling fast despite the mushy stucco walls and not just for land value

    Current score: -8
  46. Conrad Says:

    if a bear $hits in the woods, does anyone smell it?

    Current score: -9
  47. RippedtoShit Says:

    Meth,

    Your getting me excited.

    DM, where's your Mom when I need her!?

    Look, I'm just kidding.

    Meth, fantastic updates, perhaps we have finally reached THE INFLECTION POINT on this bubble, this could be AWESOME.

    Current score: -2
  48. Dante Says:

    "Had a chat today with a realtor in Kelowna. Last time we spoke, in the summer,she said “the market is dead, not much is selling.” This time she moaned “The market is TERRIBLE” (she’s been a realtor for over 25 years)"

    when does she expects to pick up REAL second job like flipping the burgers? then i will be sure market is terrible.

    Current score: 11
  49. Best place on meth Says:

    Final body count for Richmond/Van west SFH today:

    61 listed

    5 sold

    Current score: 31
  50. YLTN @ Work Says:

    @Best place on meth: This ad has been ongoing on 1130 for over a month now, the guy's voice is so annoying trying to sound like an upper class brit.

    Current score: 5
  51. vangrl Says:

    seriously can't believe that Global just pushed Van real estate again after all of these warning signs lately. Had a realtor on saying it was her busiest January yet!

    so irresponsible

    Current score: 20
  52. paradox Says:

    And the award for the best article and best journalist of 2012 so far goes to…
    http://eedition.vancouver.24hrs.ca/epaper/viewer….

    Current score: 1
  53. Best place on meth Says:

    @vangrl:

    >>>Had a realtor on saying it was her busiest January yet!<<<

    It was. Listings are on a record pace.

    Current score: 31
  54. Anonymous Says:

    @vangrl:

    I think Realtors know that unless the next couple months are relatively hot, it's going to get ugly…hence their desperation to help things along

    Current score: 10
  55. Here's to hopin Says:

    @vangrl:

    This is all so funny to me. Global running stories on Vancouver being the 2nd most unaffordable city in the world. Story on ultra-low rates driving another RE boom. At the same time.. Prices dropping like stones in Okanagen and Whistler and Van Isle. Sales, lists and inventories running at the worst we've seen in a decade here in Vancouver. Anyone running into the market today to lock in these "promo" rates is basically standing naked on the train tracks. It looks like any faint hope of a soft landing is being quickly eliminated, and a full scale crash is an inevitability.

    And for that, I'd like to thank (in no particular order): the federal govt., CMHC, the RE cartel, the big 5 banks, MSM, mortgage brokers, and the delusional populace of Canada. You have all conspired to bring about one of the largest transfers of wealth we may ever see in our lifetime. It is now a fait accomplis, just a matter of how soon and how bad. The lemmings shall be crushed, and the liquid will reap the rewards.

    Current score: 17
  56. RippedtoShit Says:

    Meth:

    Incredible.

    I'm noticing more and more For Sale signs on lawns on the west side, and few ugly orange stickers.

    That said, I've been excited this time of year before and the orange stickers had babies.

    Here's hoping that this year is the one that goes down in history as the year reality struck back.

    Current score: 3
  57. vangrl Says:

    oh man, and Global just announced they are launching a mandarin news channel starting tonight at 7….can only imagine the pumping that's going to happen on that show.

    Current score: 8
  58. jumpin in Says:

    I hadn't been to Oakridge Mall for one year.

    I went today, and found it pretty traumatizing.

    I kept saying to myself: I want to move back East, I want to move back East, etc.

    Current score: 5
  59. pq Says:

    "I hadn’t been to Oakridge Mall for one year.

    I went today, and found it pretty traumatizing."

    what happend? Did Dragon scared you from the window displays?

    Current score: 1
  60. fifi Says:

    "oh man, and Global just announced they are launching a mandarin news channel starting tonight at 7"

    i bet in a few years mandarin will be mandatory in the schools in Van

    Current score: 3
  61. RippedtoShit Says:

    this country should not be a dumping ground for rich/corrupt criminals to hide in.

    so what, maybe he wants some ethnic diversity.

    what is wrong with that, you xenophobic mantangoe?

    let's just hope this crash drives back the worst of the worse in a hurry.

    Current score: -3
  62. mac Says:

    @RippedtoShit:

    RJ,

    You see for sale signs in your sleep.

    Current score: 0
  63. RippedtoShit Says:

    haha, that's true (mac)!:-)

    I do so want this market to fucking crap out. It's been a long wait. I have a masters in finance, and to be the greater fool who did not buy into this (soon to be) mess has been wearing on me. Other parts of life have been great, but fuck this shit, I bet the farm on fundamentals and now I want to harvest my crop!!

    Bring it on.

    Current score: 5
  64. Makaya Says:

    Interesting predictions from Larry:

    At this precise moment we really don’t know if there will be a substantial change in our local Vancouver market. Going out on a limb, my take on what I’m seeing says the numbers for January are not going to be pretty. That said, I anticipate that should the expected visitors fail to materialize the adjustment will start on the west side and quickly filter east, south and up valley. By Feb/March if the market has as some suspect, crossed the line into negative territory, we’ll begin to see a picture developing. How big and what that picture will look like be may not be known until we get some hindsight by May or June.

    It is an interesting change that where we were once viewed as the tail on the American dog we now seem to be the tail on the Chinese dragon. Let’s hope he’s a good dragon.

    Current score: 11
  65. mac Says:

    @RippedtoShit:

    Unfortunately, unbelievably, I don't think it will happen until the flow of free money from banks to morons is stopped.

    Current score: -2
  66. mac Says:

    @Makaya:

    This guy drives me nuts. Like every other sales agent he holds both opinions simultaneously. He loves to tease bears and then accuse them of getting ahead of themselves. I hope he's right but if he's not he'll just refer back 3 posts ago and say he called it when he said planeloads of rich buyers were coming to his Marine Dr. listings.

    Current score: 4
  67. Apocarypse Mao Says:

    @ vangrl Says: "oh man, and Global just announced they are launching a mandarin news channel "

    Funny, I read a few days ago that Global was applying for a 'local BC' 24 hour news channel. I guess that now 'local' means Mandarin.

    Current score: 8
  68. jumpin in Says:

    I have always been convinced that Tsur invested a lot of his money in RE, since he is always pumping so hard. By the way, he is hired by UBC, who is also having a vested interest in RE.

    After the ghosts at the hospice, we are believing in dragons for our economic forecasts:
    http://eedition.vancouver.24hrs.ca/epaper/viewer….

    and in Feng Shui for RE forecasts:
    http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/Savvy+buyers+f…

    We are walking on the head. I see two possible outcomes: the RE market implodes, or racial tensions explode. It happened before in many other countries. I could never understand why us Canadians believe "it is different here." Everyone is entitled to learn from history books.

    Current score: 8
  69. Anonymous Says:

    @mac: Saying that there's a 'flow of free money from banks to morons' suggests the banks have something to loose. They don't, but you do!

    Current score: 4
  70. Anonymous Says:

    @DEFAULT NAME: Can you say: CMHC (Chinese Mainlanders Hose Canadians)

    Current score: -2
  71. Makaya Says:

    @mac: Some people (realtor I guess) are still bullish…

    I bet the rain slowed open houses this weekend. That said, I suspect that post CNY will cause a veritable flood of bidding wars over the coming weeks, watch out for new record high prices and sales volumes!

    lol…

    Current score: 1
  72. crashcow Says:

    What a gutsy magazine cover that Canadian Business just put out!
    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/issue/66623–issu…

    And here's the article:

    "Prediction: The Canadian housing market will crash"
    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/65694–pr…

    Current score: 16
  73. frank Says:

    Did I miss Paul's numbers tonight?

    Current score: 8
  74. Anonymous Says:

    @longorshort: "I don’t have real time data but can say that there is limited supply of reasonable priced detached in better areas"

    There has been NO supply of reasonable priced detached in ANY areas of the lower mainland for 8 or 9 years. However there will be lots coming soon.

    Current score: 7
  75. Apocarypse Mao Says:

    @crashcow Says: What a gutsy magazine cover that Canadian Business just put out!

    Yes. I was shopping at Safeway on the weekend, made sure I spread four or five all over the magazine rack at eye level. Quite catchy.

    Got to keep the agitprop up, with what little we have.

    Current score: 13
  76. Makaya Says:

    And here is another MSM bearish article…

    Prediction: The Canadian housing market will crash

    Here is an interesting quote from the article:

    This puts the housing market in a precarious position: a large gap between prices and incomes, worsening affordability, and an indebted nation of homeowners less able to withstand economic shocks. None of these conditions has improved over the past 12 months. “The bubble has become worse,” says George Athanassakos, a finance professor at the Richard Ivey School of Business. Athanassakos argues the market is headed for a severe correction. Like many, he thought it would be showing more signs of strain by now. Instead, “house prices continue to go up, and debt continues to go up.”

    David Madani, an economist with Capital Economics, says that the reason prices keep rising, despite fundamentals that indicate they should be moderating, is because a bubble mentality is driving the Canadian market. “It’s this belief that prices are going to continue to go up, which becomes a self-perpetuating force,” he says. He explains that in good times, rising prices create a sense of urgency among home buyers who don’t want to miss out on the chance to benefit from soaring prices. So people pile in, pushing prices higher. This creates the appearance that housing is an asset that can only rise in value, and even more pile in.

    But this line of thinking can reverse, and people can overreact to a declining market too. The greed that previously drove buying behaviour turns into fear that prices will fall indefinitely. This can be a self-perpetuating force. The result is that prices can dip farther than where economic fundamentals suggest they should be.

    (…)

    An argument sometimes used to defend the strength of the housing market is that foreign investors, predominantly wealthy Chinese citizens, are buying property here because Canada is a safe haven in a turbulent global economy. There are no actual data to support this claim, however. Even assuming it’s true, the presence of financially motivated buyers helping to prop up the market doesn't inspire confidence. “They’ll just liquidate their positions,” Madani says. “They’re a much greater flight risk.” Any listings they dump on the market will only serve to drive prices down further.

    When prices do start to fall, don’t expect a quick rebound like we saw three years ago.

    Current score: 15
  77. Makaya Says:

    @Makaya: On that same article, they're running a poll with the question "will the market crash"?

    So far, 70% of the people answered yes…

    Current score: 6
  78. zrh2yvr Says:

    Well – - House on Belmont sold today for pretty much $20M.

    This is just one thing to remember that in this month of record low sales volume, we had a house that sold for an amount that will bring the average across the whole market up by $45,000 – So – Don't expect the Larry and REBGV graph to show as much of a decrease this month (we would have been down likely another 3-4% but this may counter-balance it to keep it flat).

    Current score: 12
  79. mac Says:

    @Makaya:

    Exactomundo.

    Current score: 2
  80. Gromit Says:

    Larry's numbers

    Vancouver East & West*

    New Listings – 115

    Back On Market Listings – 1

    Price Changes – 15

    Sold Listings – 27

    Vancouver All Areas*

    New Listings – 307

    Back On Market Listings – 2

    Price Changes – 53

    Sold Listings – 73

    *Attached & Detached – Date: 01/23/2012 Time: 20:55 Pacific YatterMatters.com: Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.

    Current score: 28
  81. VMD Says:

    @crashcow:

    Thanks Crashcow, this is going straight to a new thread at the Chinese forum. Just trying to add some spark to the Chinese New Year holiday discussion ; )

    <a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2 Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Ft%3D422633%2Flang%3Dschinese.html&act=url” target=”_blank”>http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&amp…” target=”_blank”>Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Ft%3D422633%2Flang%3Dschinese.html&act=url

    Current score: 11
  82. Brainburst Says:

    @zrh2yvr:

    It could be this one, staged with Chinese furniture.

    http://www.manyeelui.com/Properties.php/Details/8…

    Current score: 1
  83. zrh2yvr Says:

    Richmond sale today – - Failed Flip

    10160 Dennis –

    Sold Feb 2011 – $879,000

    listed Aug 2011 – $1,098,000

    Sold Jan 2011 – $879,000

    one year, no gain, out of pocket for costs – and, listing says that seller spent $70,000 on repairs and renos.

    Current score: 20
  84. Brainburst Says:

    @Brainburst:

    Actually, the entire website looks like The Little Shop of Horrors .

    http://www.manyeelui.com/index.php

    Current score: 3
  85. 604x Says:

    A couple of nights ago @WTF! submitted enough comments about tax evasion of speculators that I got pissed off and wrote a letter. I've posted the letter to the VCI FORUM under its own section "Letters" (keyword "elbowing back"). The strategy of the letters: hit them where it hurts – m-o-n-e-y.

    Copy, update and mail if you get bored. It needs follow-up parallel letters to other departments. Let's try to get to those in coming days.

    Vive la revolution!

    Current score: 8
  86. Guy Smiley Says:

    @ #82 That is a really nice place. But $20M???? Absolutely nutty. Much nicer available in a thousand locations around the globe. Carribean. South France. You might be able to purchase Arizona for that.

    Current score: 9
  87. VMD Says:

    @zrh2yvr:

    Thank you Zrh2yvr, this went straight to another new thread to the Chinese forum. I'm such a troll.

    Did a quick summary,

    -70,000 from reno

    -3,132 from property tax

    -43,950 (5%) from realtor fees/closing costs (does 5% sound right?)

    Total~ – 117,000 or -13.3% (not including mortgage interest/insurance payments)

    <a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2 Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Fp%3D3869974%2Flang%3Dschinese.html%233869974&act=url” target=”_blank”>http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&amp…” target=”_blank”>Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Fp%3D3869974%2Flang%3Dschinese.html%233869974&act=url

    Current score: 10
  88. VMD Says:

    Interesting Realtor conversations documented @ Larry's site:

    Sunday AM

    Buyer’s Realtor® – “We’d like to make an offer!”

    Seller’s Realtor® – “Ok that’s great but, I need to tell you that three others who visited the weekend open house have also declared their intent to make an offer as well,” said the listing agent.

    “Oh – well then, I will inform the buyers I’m representing to advise them that you expect multiple offers – I’ll get back to you with their decision.”

    Sunday PM

    Buyer’s Realtor® – “The buyers I’m representing have decided that they do not want to participate in a multiple offer situation.” “Thanks for your time and good luck with your multiples.”

    Monday AM

    Seller’s Realtor® phones. “Would your buyer’s reconsider their decision?”

    Buyer’s Realtor® – “Why?”

    Seller’s Realtor® somewhat embarrassed – “the other three offers that were declared Sunday evening have decided not to go forward.”

    http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/01/vancouver-ho…

    Current score: 13
  89. 604x Says:

    ok, I went a little nutty. Four letter templates are now posted in the VCI Forum:

    http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/letter-wri…

    Current score: 5
  90. jumpin in Says:

    Interesting post on the Chinese speaking RE forum, regarding sales in Richmond:

    Year in an aircraft of migratory birds fly north, the New Year after an aircraft of migratory birds flying south again

    Current score: 1
  91. Boombust Says:

    “the other three offers that were declared Sunday evening have decided not to go forward.”

    That's an old realtors' trick. Don't ever fall for the "…just so you know, there ARE other interested parties" Phoney BS.

    Current score: 11
  92. Dan Says:

    @604x

    Thanks for posting… those letters are well written. I've sent a few to the media regarding tax-evasion. But I think I'll try sending some like yours.

    Current score: 7
  93. ZRH2YVR Says:

    Re: My Post #83 – -

    Final sale should have said Jan 2012 and not 2011. This was a recent transaction.

    There are actually many like this out there.

    Separately – I have to say I was pretty sickened by the insert in the Vancouver Sun yesterday. The Chinese New Year insert was nothing more than a Real Estate advertising section. It was completely rediculous. I think the industry can really see that without Chinese money – this market is dead in the water now, taking on water and sinking. It was in this section that the article mentioning that the Chinese are coming was included. What a POS this section was. Anyhow – - – Tuesday is here now and we should see all the effects of the 100's of cash sales that occurred on the weekend to the HAM which arrived last week. Give me a break.

    Current score: 6
  94. vangrl Says:

    VMD "Thanks Crashcow, this is going straight to a new thread at the Chinese forum. Just trying to add some spark to the Chinese New Year holiday discussion ; )"

    that thread made me laugh, thanks for that!

    Current score: 4
  95. jumpin in Says:

    Could someone give names of RE forums where we could troll massively?

    Just for fun :)

    Realtors have been doing the same here lately.

    I only know RE talk.

    Current score: 3
  96. Carney cries wolf again.. will it come? » Modern Vancouver Mortgages Says:

    [...] economy, news, opinion, prices. You can follow any responses to this entry through the –>RSS 2.0 comments [...]

    Current score: 0
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