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Dramatic Numbers

January 9, 2012 admin

Monday was a strange day for Real Estate in Vancouver. It’s normal this time of year for listing to outnumber buyers as people who haven’t managed to sell relist their property, but the ratios paulb just posted are mindboggling:

New Listings 376
Price Changes 56
Sold Listings 43

And as he also points out, the Westside is nuts:

New Listings 96
Price Changes 10
Sold Listings 5

Yes, that’s right. 96 new listings on the west side of Vancouver on one day and only 5 sales. Any idea whats going on here? Were there so many listings that all the sales didn’t get entered, or did we really just have crazy sales/ list ratio day?

And if your in the mood to contemplate dramatic numbers check these out, courtesy of McLovin:

Buddy got his assessment in Kelowna. He owns a 2 br condo with great view of the lake in the Skye building. Paid $660,000 presale in 2007 incl GST. Took possession in 2009.
2011 Assessment $631,000
2012 Assessment $541,000
Drop of 18% in 1 yr and over 20% from his presale purchase price in 2007.
Truthfully, if he had to sell the place he would be lucky to get $500,000. So he is down about 25% and there is no bottom in sight.

As Makaya points out:

to put things in perspective, assuming your buddy took possession exactly three years ago and sold it today for $500K, he has “lost” $4,444 on his house every month. I hope he’s making a good salary to compensate.

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The Leak

8 years ago

Say the market is absolutely flooded with listings and we do see a large percentage drop in prices later this year. Do we have an outward party somewhere downtown and let the media know (we) the idiot renters on the internet have been predicting this for years?

VMD

8 years ago

A quick summary:

Total Inventory (@ same time in Jan)

2012: 11582

2011: 10019

-> exceeds last year by 15.6%

Sales (@ same time in Jan)

2012: 350 (or is it 353?)

2011: 432

-> declined 19%

New Lists (@ same time in Jan)

2012: 1722

2011: 1386

-> increased 24%

MOI (sales extrapolated to end of Jan)

2012: 9.45

2011: 6.63

->Firmly in "buyer's market" at the moment

Relax

8 years ago

Relax people. In a few weeks we might see several hundred sales per day….

RippedtoShit

8 years ago

Rumor has it that we should expect a 400 listing day this month.

RippedtoShit

8 years ago

The Leak….I (and many others here as well, I'm sure) hear you loud and clear.

I won't blow my horn until the blood on the streets is visible from space…..i mean to others outside the loop that is…

Is this IT, the final reckoning with the laws of economics? It looks like it could be, but we'll have to see this weakness and the negative media feed on itself until panic sets in….hopefully it happens fast, I love the current sale/list trends…the fact that the westside and richmond are particularly weak is interesting

The Leak

8 years ago

I dunno. I'll party when I actually get to see all those bullish hacks over on the BC Real Estate Forum disappear due to not being able to repeat the phrase "It's different here."

Gimme two or three months of 300 plus listings a day and I'll go back out on the street again and boast I know more that the average lower mainland whack job.

Seriously, over the past 5 plus years I've argued over and over with people that the "house of cards is tumbling"…"train is derailing" only to come out looking like chicken little. I am used to always being right. So I'll hold off until I see big-time declines REPORTED in the shillish mainstream media…

Anonymous

8 years ago

@fixie guy:

Bailouts are known and predictable. Even companies like Bombardier and Air Canada feed at the taxpayer trough when they get into trouble. The Savings and Loan crisis in USA in the 80's also cost the taxpayer big money.

longorshort

8 years ago

In reality most of these listings are re listings of those that expired in Nov and Dec. Wasn't end Oct inventory at 17,000, and the sell/list ratio in Nov, Dec did not exceed 100%, so most of the reduction from 17k to below 11k was expirations. Not suggesting this is positive, and the historical seasonal comparisons are probably relevant. However these properties were already for sale last year and the sellers still want or need to sell I would imagine.

RippedtoShit

8 years ago

Interesting….hope the streets are flooded with new FOR SALE signs over the coming weeks and that the open houses draw crickets.

could this actually be it? the msm is now beating bear war drums…..and telling is that many many of the chinese coming here are LYING CHEATS.

i think the voting public has had enough.

tide turning.

will they tighten mortgage rules in a couple of months? nail in the coffin? or could they reach out and do so sooner…

Patiently Waiting

8 years ago

Sounds an amateur flipper in trouble, but I'm not sure exactly what they're saying. Does anyone understand this?:

"FOR EACH FLOOR UP , THERE IS 5,000 DOLLARS EXTRA FOR 10 FLOORS WHICH IS 50,000 DOLLARS

BUT I M ASKING COMPLETE PRICE OF 399,500 DOLLARS. They were giving rebate of 2% on taxes when i bought it

so you have to pay 10% tax only & for home owners, you will get taxes back from Govt, thats wat they told me, but i need money"

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/bnc/reo/2782753…

VHB

8 years ago

Just need to average +139 a day for Wed/Th/Fr to make 12K this week! We're a lock for 13K this month. A three party month? Hell ya!

Should overtake 2009 inventory levels by mid February.

VHB

8 years ago

Jan-2012

Total days 21

Days elapsed so far 6

Weekends / holidays 4

Days missing 0

Days remaining 15

7 Day Moving Average: Sales 62

7 Day Moving Average: Listings 293

SALES

Sales so far 353

Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 924

Projected month end total 1277 +/- 359

NEW LISTINGS

Listings so far 1722

Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 4389

Projected month end total 6111 +/- 990

Sell-list so far 20.5%

Projected month-end sell-list 20.9%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

Inventory as of Jan 9, 2012 11582

MoI at this sales pace 9.07

paulb.

8 years ago

New Listings 351

Price Changes 48

Sold Listings 91

TI:11582

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

chip

8 years ago

@patriotz:

True. And if you consider the scale of regulatory capture that the big fin firms have achieved, it's hard to argue they're separate from the govt at all.

Best place on meth

8 years ago

@chilled:

Is Garth Turdner still writing his little stock promoting blog disguised as a real estate blog?

That's so cute.

Anonymouse

8 years ago

@chilled:

"Now Turner isn’t even publishing comments that don’t fit the ‘group think’ that has permeated his blog."

Yet he chooses to publish all the moronic "Fiiirrrssssssssssssst!!!!!11!!!" comments.

patriotz

8 years ago

@chip:

Financial institutions are never private sector entities properly speaking since the government creates their stock in trade out of nothing and constantly manipulates its price.

I suppose an analogy would be something like a gas station in Iran where gas costs 10 cents/litre.

fixie guy

8 years ago

38 WFT? Says: "Big financial institutions will always get bailed out with taxpayer money."

There was NO historical precedent for TARP ('bailout' in the likely CMHC sense isn't accurate either) and the suggestion that for the better part of a decade an entire, competitive financial industry 'knew' that government, any future government in power, would bail everyone out no matter the tab is extraordinary. That kind of prescience by definition doesn't need bailouts.

Wall Street and the CMHC both had real, complex and misguided incentives for their actions. The failure to understand them properly guarantees failure recognizing them in the future.

chip

8 years ago

@WFT?:

"To be fair, private sector bureaucracies are just as bad or worse. Witness the predictive abilities of the US bond rating firrms, Lehman, Bear Sterns, Washington Mutual, Merryl Lynch, Countrywide Financial and all the other private institutions who failed in 2008-2009."

Actually, no. SOME pvt sector entities may be just as bad as the govt but as your examples show, they often go out of business. Which means that pvt sector entities in general are the ones who succeed and are therefore superior to one which always loses money, rarely fires anyone and never goes out of business; ie, the govt.

chilled

8 years ago

Now Turner isn't even publishing comments that don't fit the 'group think' that has permeated his blog.

What can you expect from a vertically challenged man with a Harley?

Big difference from 2008 when Turner published squirrel recipes, focused on the importance of cash and can openers and predicted a worldwide financial meltdown. Today his targeted advice is directed to those with a million to invest, 25yr olds making $100K and anything else that only supports his conveniently narrowed message.

The Realturds were right, Turner is a 'turd in his own right.

I still completely agree with his premise, I just do not like the way he continues to play politician, counting on Canadians short attention.

Not much of a name..

8 years ago

@space889: So, take it to a different forum.

space889

8 years ago

@Not much of a name…: Not too much, but curious about the views of the top 2 posters on this forum about this, given their previous posts on related subjects.

WFT?

8 years ago

Here is a housing bubble cartoon from the Globe:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/cart…

Xinhau

8 years ago

What kind of society and hellhole exists on Earth for someone to steal/rob a hit and run victim lying on the street dying and go on using the victim’s credit cards in a shopping spree? Please tell us Best Place on Meth and Patriotz!

____

Good thing that the cop pointed out how this was such a unique, one off isolated incident in Canada – hence why it makes the news in this country!

Too bad this is just a common occurrence in other countries (ahem – who will remain unnamed) to the point that this story would not even make the news there…

patriotz

8 years ago

@space889:

"Staff Sgt. Hrab said that there were witnesses and paramedics were quickly called to the scene."

Therein lies the difference. Every society has its dirtbags, but not every society lacks a sense of civic responsibility from ordinary citizens.