Friday Free-for-all!

It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for our weekend news wrap up and open topic discussion thread! Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

Condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver at risk
Vancouver 2011 market update video
-What $1.8 million gets you in Arkansas and Vancouver
Nine wonderful bubbles
Condo risk bubbles up
Royal LePage says banks are wrong, prices will not drop in 2012
Bernanke saw ‘relatively soft landing’ in 2006

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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VCI Admin
Admin

If you registered a user account on this site before Fri Jan 13th 2012, you're welcome to check out our new site which may eventually replace the VCI forum. The goal is to make sharing data easier, accepting more attachment formats and the ability for any registered user to create their own discussion groups and forums. Your VCI log in info will work there for now, feedback and testing is appreciated.

http://vancouverpeak.com

chilled
Member
chilled

@McLovin:

"Chilled where is the condo and what building if you don’t mind sharing?"

New building on the Quay in New West.

patriotz
Member

@DEFAULT NAME:

"Not only do they have housing bubbles but massive deficits and unprecedented government debt. At least all we have here is a housing bubble."

Obviously a visitor from Bizarro World, where Adanac was running a deficit until the Snoc came to power and gave them a surplus.

oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2

@DEFAULT NAME: This quote is so full of political ignorance it's hard to know where to begin to respond to it. You do understand that both Canada and the US have been welfare states for decades now, right?

Second, name one policy that Obama has enacted since becoming president that has strengthened the welfare state. Obamacare? You mean the Romney-inspired tweak to the US health-care system which only entrenches the principle of private insurance and which, by the way, is to the right policy-wise of 1996 Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole's health care proposal.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@Meh:

Cam Good's already fucked off to Arizona so maybe Larry's a bit behind the curve when it comes to HAM. Or he's just being a jackass and spreading baseless rumors out of desperation.

In any case if HAM and the unicorns actually do show up they'll have plenty of inventory to choose from, 600+ on the west side already and rising quickly.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@fixie guy:

The welfare state model was tried in Europe. How did that work out? How has Obama done in the US? Canada's government is not without it's faults but it looks a whole lot better then other countries with socialist governments. Not only do they have housing bubbles but massive deficits and unprecedented government debt. At least all we have here is a housing bubble.

Yahoo
Guest
Yahoo

@rp1: Oh yeah, many of them make SEVERAL HUNDRED DOLLARS PER YEAR!

Roomy shopper
Guest
Roomy shopper
You know, just starting to think about RE becoming a headwind vs a tailwind for the next 5+ years is quite daunting. I'm sure a lot of younger folks (age 30-50) are starting to think about how long they really need to own their house for (like till the kids finish grade 12) and then how they default or get out of paying off any negative equity when they depart for a trailer home. Older people who bought in the 1970's just have no idea. They're thinking well maybe I'll sell my place for 800,000 instead of a million. And as we all know the old geezers have a polling turnout rate of 90%+ in elections and there a lot of them, so policies to help the young folks will be tough to enact. This is looking like a huge… Read more »
rp1
Guest
rp1

@Meh: "Oh wow, he actually said 2 Billion. He’s off by over 600 million"

But they're all rich, right?

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

I would guess that Larry's "Asian Friends" are realtors. Sounds like marketing hogwash to me. HAM areas have already been quiet since then end of last year, likely due to the slowdown in China.

Many people I know who have visited China since September, have noticed a major, major reduction in restaurant and mall traffic there. If wealthy Chinese were trying to get their money out and into Vancouver, it would have shown up in the HAM areas by now. The correlation is as follows.

China Economy Hot = Vancouver Sales Up.

China Economy Not = Vancouver Sales Down.

Don't let a realtor tell you otherwise.

Meh
Guest
Meh

@Best place on meth: Oh wow, he actually said 2 Billion. He's off by over 600 million, which is roughly twice the population of the USA.

You know, it took me less than five minutes to confirm the above information on teh interwebs. I hope Yatter spends more time researching properties for his clients.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@RippedtoShit:

Larry also thinks China has 2 billion people.

I think I'll take his extremely vague, somewhat desperate sounding rumor mongering with a grain of salt.

registered
Member
registered
97 & 103 DEFAULT NAME Says: "More voters voted for the Conservatives over the Liberals (which was the discussion). Did you ever wonder why they are in power? Your 3 year old may be able to help you with this." Living abroad is a fault? At one time it was envied. Three year old children respond to treats and scary stories. Of course in the last election the candy was property prices and the depressingly typical, pseudo-patriotic right wing tripe of being the 'best managed country on earth'. The red-drenched TV ads of an eeeeeevil Ignatieff also seemed to work. That is toddler's reasoning. When it all come down these lunatics will scatter like cockroaches to private industry and academic tenures, leaving us looking like Podunk global village idiots. The faithful like you are sure to blame whoever comes next… Read more »
Apocarypse Mao
Guest
Apocarypse Mao

Asian surge this spring?. We'll find out soon. The two week Chinese New Year break starts next weekend. We'll see if the flying helicopters start appearing. Global will let us know.

RippedtoShit
Guest
RippedtoShit

Larry's street talk said ASIAN BUYERS defending in boat/planeloads starting now…expect to see an explosion of high priced sales over the coming weeks/months…

i suspect prices will RIP HIGHER if this is true.

RippedtoShit
Guest
RippedtoShit

Is Larry RIGHT?

or

Is Larry WRONG?

RippedtoShit
Guest
RippedtoShit

larry is expecting the market to boom higher this spring with a very strong market, street news is that asian buyers are set to flood into the market in high volumes with buckets of cash…

@Reggie

Hard to know for sure but street rumor from my Asian friends says we should expect boat loads – er plane loads to be visiting. Will they come ready to buy? Don’t know. If the limited news from China is true then it seems feasible that some will be wanting to put their monies into ‘relatively speaking’, more secure areas.

As you say – interesting times.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@oneangryslav2: "Most voting Canadians definitely did NOT “agree” (if by agree we mean “vote for”) that the Conservatives would be the better party in power. That’s simply a fact."

Wrong. More agreed the conservatives are better than the Liberals. That is a fact even your 3 year can understand. You are making a fool of yourself…again.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

"try and get laid here and there."

yes, and every time you do that, dont forget the "fundamental" position, plus mumbling "mania mania pop pop pop".

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

Rising MOI is very unusual in January. Has it ever happened before?

RippedtoShit
Guest
RippedtoShit

expect the sunny weather and lower rates to bring in some buying over the coming months…that said, I still think year over year prices fall 10% by late spring.

the msm/remax know that the comparable for dec 11/12 will have a low dec 11 value, so they are hoping for a somewhat flat market….

i think the goose is cooked this time though, but as confirmation we'll need widespread MOI at ten plus (the higher the better!) before we get a strong self-reinforcing trend to panic.

be well amigos, and make sure you enjoy the sunshine this weekend and try and get laid here and there.

vreaa
Member

“A friend from Kelowna phoned me wanting to borrow some serious money ($50K). It is time for them to refinance their mortgage; Kelowna prices have collapsed since they bought 4 years ago; they paid $450k a house which is now worth $370k; to refinance at these new rates the bank said they have to bring up their equity to positive status.”

http://wp.me/pcq1o-3yh

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

patriotz, you never left yvr didnt you? you just pretended to get attention from others right?

#111,

dont have to be jealous on your friend. didnt your mama told you it's a bad behaviour of a loser?

patriotz
Member

@frank:

"Most of you may be too young to remember 10% rates we had 20 years ago. Imagine what that would do industry, consumption, RE when we are all so heavily indebted."

That's why it won't happen. People are so indebted that if rates went anywhere near 10% nobody would have any disposable income which would be severely deflationary.

But we don't need those kind of rates to bring down the RE house of cards, indeed it will come down even at current rates and a rise of 1 or 2% would bring it down even faster.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
My colleague B. has been bragging about the price of his house for the past 4 years. On Friday, I told him we are passed the peak, and that I know of two families who sold in June and are proud of their timing. He turned white. I showed him Larry's graph on my laptop. Sorry to say it, but it felt good to look at his face. He could hardly work in the afternoon, trying to gather data on the web. His conclusion: his is late, and his last chance to cash is in the next two months, if there is any HAM left. I realized that, in his mind, he did not have a 2.5 million $ home, he thought he HAD 2.5 MILLION DOLLARS (and plans about how to spend it). And suddenly, those 2.5 millions have… Read more »