Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again! Lets do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic economic discussion thread. Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

No retirement savings? No problem!
Big sale on Granville, hoping for wealthy Chinese buyers
Tax assessments hit Vancouverites hard
Carneys low rates yield more houses than machines
REBGV inventory rocketing at start of the year
West Van and Richmond have highest child poverty levels
Questions and Answers
One does not..

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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jesse
Member

On listings, I think the surge of the past 2 weeks was to hit CNY, many investors still use newspapers for vetting listings and the publication deadline for next week's paper is this weekend (I assume). While listings are likely to remain elevated the rush to hit the next week running is real.

I expect listings growth in other areas less dominated by Asian investors to follow more seasonal patterns.

Still, listings growth in Van West and Richmond are something else for this time of year.

registered
Member
registered

@2 jesse: Occam's hypothesis: listings are higher in the more speculative markets.

jesse
Member

@fixie guy: Yes, I was stating the recent magnitudes witnessed may be temporary, but for other reasons I fully expect higher listing volumes than 2011. If listings were "brought forward" for CNY that will cause a temporary lull to balance out. 6000 newlists IMO is a stretch.

Troll
Guest
Troll

Canada’s annual inflation rate eased more than expected in December to levels closer to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target

Uh oh. LOL.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/20/cana

taylor192
Member

She sells 10 homes per month to Chinese investors paying cash. 120 homes is < 0.25% of the market in Vancouver – why are we reporting on this?

Alum
Guest
Alum

Another good news for RE:

U.S. Home Sales Rise 5% to 4.61 Million Pace in December

Bloomberg – 1 hour ago

Enlarge image US Home sales US Home sales David Paul Morris/Bloomberg Bella Casa Home Staging workers Manuel Sanchez, front, and Noah Perez remove a couch from a condo for sale in San Francisco on Jan. 3, 2012.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-20/u-s-home

Troll
Guest
Troll

Bears, don't get too excited about the listings surge yet. Wait to see how many of this listings are brought forward from sellers wanting to get a jump on the spring market. More important is where they top out at, ie if there are more sellers this spring market than last.

Reasonfirst
Guest
Reasonfirst

Troll Says: "sellers wanting to get a jump on the spring market"

Sounds like a hint of change in seller psychology but I'm not getting too excited yet….really.

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victoria
Member
victoria

I don't know Vancouver but I thought that Richmond and West Vancouver were the most expensive areas in Vancouver.

So why is there so much child poverty then?

I do see however 2 little old Chinese ladies going through the recycling every week in Cordova Bay (expensive area in Victoria) and from what I understand the family lives in a 1.5 million dollar house. I don't get it.

I know they don't speak English because one was walking on the street during the snow storm here and people were worried that she would get hit by a car because the sidewalks were blocked. She was busy going into the recycling up and down Cordova Bay Road.

Are people paying so much in RE that they can't feed their families?????

Just observing and asking.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Troll: Troll Says: “sellers wanting to get a jump on the spring market”

And how is this different from every other January? If you had referenced CNY, that's a different story.

Kaidub
Guest
Kaidub

As soon as one TO native noticed a condo “mushrooming furiously right in front of me,” the Vimeo user attempted to document the “City of Mass Construction” the best he/she could. The result is architectural catnip.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/aggregate/constructoronto

Troll
Guest
Troll

@DEFAULT NAME:

And how is this different from every other January?

Sure, maybe there's a slight change in psychology, who knows at this point. I'll be a lot more interested if the total listings climbs past previous highs.

All I'm saying is all these over the top pronouncements of popping bubbles and silly immature inventory 'parties' are way too premature. But I guess there hasn't been much to cheer for as a bear, so you latch on to every little bearish stat.

Troll
Guest
Troll

@Alum: Tsk tsk, you know the rules. NO Good news allowed.

patriotz
Member

@Troll:

US prices that just keep falling are very good news!

For US buyers, and for us, because it's going to happen here too.

yvr2zrh
Member
On the listings surge. This was something that could have been forecasted based on the somewhat dismal sales volumes since August. When you look back over the past 4-5 months, sales have already been very slow and inventories growing. This means that after all the listing expirations on Dec 31, there was lots of unsold stock from last year to be re-list. Combine this with a small shift in sentiment (people see more of a bubble now) and large price gains (people want to sell now), the supply will have to go up. It is not really likely that this significant spike will be a 2-3 months activity. We should probably see it level out to a more normal listing level in about 2-3 weeks. However – – sales are still abysmal and some areas are running at 2008-2009 levels… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

you mean it will happen in the affordable Ottawa?

WFT?
Guest
WFT?

@Troll:

"so you latch on to every little bearish stat"

What have been the recent bullish stats? Recent stats are something like 90% bearish.

registered
Member
registered

15 Troll Says: "@Alum: Tsk tsk, you know the rules. NO Good news allowed."

Quit being an infant. A link to a discussion about a mild sales boost in a housing market that's been collapsing for years needs a little expansion to explain the relevance. The same article also stated prices are still in decline. Are all you clowns (charity or insult to assume multiple posters, you tell me) like this?

WFT?
Guest
WFT?
@Victoria: "So why is there so much child poverty then?" Here is the reason. Mom and kids live in expensive houses with two BMWs in the driveway. Dad lives most of the year in Hong Kong or China making tons of money. He sends money to the Canadian resident family. The mom files her tax return reporting two kids and income consisting entirely of wellfare and other social assistance like the child tax benefit. This can be around $20,000 a year for two kids. Mom has no job and makes zero taxable income The money that Dad sends is not repoted because they take the position that Dad is not a Canadian resident and therefore not subject to tax. Taking the self reported income and dependants this family is in "proverty" and the kids are living in child proverty. Obviously… Read more »
bubbly
Member
bubbly

Re: Child poverty in West Van

This is unfuckinbelievable bullshit. Or a case of lies, damned lies and statistics.

Fuck, I hate politicians!

AG Sage
Member

Anyone VCI denizens have any thoughts on this? Maybe I'm missing something.

http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2012/01/is

Is the Canadian Bubble More Widespread than the U.S. One.

(yeah, pimpin' my own blog…)

Re-diculous
Member
Re-diculous

So listening to CBC's On the Coast yesterday afternoon, they brought in their Financial advise columnist who talked about BMO's recent 2.99% mortgage and how great this is and how the recent increase in listings is because everyone getting ready for CNY…including himself who has a house he wants to offload, and here's the opportunity and this is a good thing, etc. The whole discussion sounded so very wrong. …..will need to reassess my loyality to the CBC going forward.

@WTF? @11:42.

Thanks for this….wow!, are we really that stupid to let our generousity be taken advantage of to that extent? ……letter to my MP on its way.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@WFT?:

Why would say something that is not true?

patriotz
Member

@WFT?:

"The money that Dad sends is not repoted because they take the position that Dad is not a Canadian resident and therefore not subject to tax."

Anyone who has a dependent spouse or children in Canada is deemed by law a Canadian resident for tax purposes regardless of where they live.

Also I highly doubt such households are drawing welfare (as the term is usually used) because such persons must not have any liquid assets regardless of claimed income. The money in the bank itself would be evidence of fraud.

That said I'm sure many such households are claiming to be low income and getting CTB, etc. Why not write our "tough on crime" government a letter and ask them why this is allowed.

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