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Friday Free-for-all!

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It’s that time of the week again! Lets do our regular friday news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend. Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

–Prediction: The Canadian Housing Market will Crash
–Household borrowing surge driven by most indebted
–Boomers ‘punch drunk’ on debt
–Canadian home prices fall for first time since fall, 2010
-Either Windsor or Edmonton has the most affordable market
–Canadas job market in bad shape
–Property taxes on the rise
–$100 hot dog, get it while it’s hot.
–US banks face margin pressure from fed rates
–US new home sales worst ever in fall 2011
–A real estate downturn down under?
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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VMD
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Just started a thread in the forum to help RE newbies (myself included) understand the linguistic intricacies in a typical MLS listing (especially for Vancouver). To start off:

“Handyman’s Special”: looks bad, smells bad, has at least one major system that doesn’t function

“Motivated”: seller gives the impression that he is under pressure to reach a quick deal

perhaps someone can continue on by defining “Vancouver’s Special”, etc.

feel free to add to an entry that was already defined 🙂

http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/mls-lingo-…

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6 years 4 months ago
VMD
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Current result from 2 polls, FWIW

1. "Will the housing market finally crash?" (from the first link)

Yes: 201 (78.5%)

No: 55 (21.5%)

2. "Is Greater Vancouver RE in a bubble?" (from Westca Chinese forum, poll started 1/26 @ 5pm）

Yes, big bubble, bursting soon: 16%

Yes, moderate bubble, not bursting in near future: 45%

Yes, just a small bubble: 11%

No, price is reasonable: 15%

Not at all, price will continue to increase: 11%

<a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2 Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Ft%3D423182%2Flang%3Dschinese.html&act=url” target=”_blank”>http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&amp…” target=”_blank”>Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Ft%3D423182%2Flang%3Dschinese.html&act=url

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6 years 4 months ago
rp1
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@VMD: http://approvedbuyer.com/real-estate/the-truth-be…

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6 years 4 months ago
CanuckDownUnder
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Downturn down under? Please, house prices are set to soar: "For most of this year Australians have had to read asinine media articles reporting purported experts predicting catastrophically large 20 per cent, 40 per cent and, last week, 60 per cent falls in domestic house prices." http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Articl… Forget the fact that the Australian economy lost 30,000 jobs in December. Who cares that the country actually lost jobs in 2011, the first time that this has happened since 1992? Retail had an absolutely awful Christmas season and there are going to massive blue collar and white collar job cuts this year. Europe is a basket case, the US is FUBAR, and can you really believe anything coming out of China? All of this doesn't matter because interest rates are going down and house prices are going TO DA MOON!!! Now forgive… Read more »
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6 years 4 months ago
patriotz
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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/greathomesandde… I found these parts interesting: The property market was unaffected by the global financial crisis, mainly because the conservative lending approach of German banks did not create a housing bubble, said Peter Talkenberger, the founder of AllGrund Ltd., a brokerage in Frankfurt-Dreieich… Foreign investors began buying in Frankfurt in growing numbers in the early 2000s and have continued to do so, Mr. Talkenberger said. Many early buyers were British, Irish, Japanese and Australian; today the preponderance are residents of south European countries, the Middle East and China. As for Wiesbaden, it sees many American and Middle Eastern buyers… So Germany has no restrictions on foreign RE ownership, yet there was no bubble in the last decade because… you already read the reason. And please don't try to compare this house to something in the Valley. Vancouver is no Frankfurt… Read more »
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6 years 4 months ago
Boombust
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A "Vancouver Special" is one of those gently-pitched tar and gravel roofed, plain vanilla boxy type houses, usually of white stucco and brown wooden trim, built maostly during the 1960's-70's.

Sometimes the front facades were dressed up with faux stone, wooden siding and brick. The really adventurous added to the delight with cheap cement statuary and wrought iron (now aluminum)fencing for the front yard.

The houses often came with a "suite-able" basement AND a balcony for the sliding glass doors at the front living room of the house. No one ever sat out on them, though. They were mostly for "show". Built to maximum density, these houses tended to take up an entire city lot.

There are oodles of them on Vancouver's narrow lots…particularly abundant on the east side and stretching into Burnaby.

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6 years 4 months ago
duh!
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duh!
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$100 hot dog is just a stupid advertising gimmick. please stop helping him promote himself, he isn't giving anyone any value.

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6 years 4 months ago
terminalcitygirl
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First Time Buyer: someone with little knowledge of the real estate industry, it's players and (lack of) ethical conduct; someone inexperienced in buying real estate. A member of a socially vulnerable group including new immigrants or young people. A mark. A sucker.

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6 years 4 months ago
Tony
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@VMD, what is an executive house? Seriously.

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6 years 4 months ago
space889
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@VMD: Maybe move on to Vansky.com. I think that's bigger than westca, at least by the number of people posting ads on their BB. I never visited their forums myself….Chinese skills not up to par anymore.

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6 years 4 months ago
condo conundrum
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Here is a prime example of greed and disconnect.

I know someone who lives in the building.

Both suites are almost identical, one has lipstick the other not

http://tinyurl.com/829yrmf http://tinyurl.com/7r8tsc5

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6 years 4 months ago
M-
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RE: Vancouver Specials: see also vancouverspecial.com

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6 years 4 months ago
Dante
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Shooting in Vancouver

Man shot in the leg, not cooperating with police

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/324369…

If you walk in Vancouver use the zig-zag and roll method so you can avoid the bullets.

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6 years 4 months ago
WS
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Any ideas for shorting the impending Vancouver real estate crash?

I am unsure of the banks, they seem sheltered with most of the risk with the CMHC holding the bag. But they still should get hit with consumer credit, underwriting etc.

Any public construction companies in Canada focused heavily on residential construction Vancouver or Toronto?

Any public furniture companies?

Other ideas? And don't say REITs.

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6 years 4 months ago
Vansanity
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Young Families Pull Up Stakes For Better Life

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Young+familie…

I didn't have time to search if anyone put this up. My wife and I can relate to many of these stories and we too will be moving by mid 2013 if the stars don't align.

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6 years 4 months ago
registered
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@14 WS: Austin on RET set up a fund (?) to short Genworth Financial Canada back in the 2008 glory daze but he's (?) been quiet on that front for a while.

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6 years 4 months ago
Bailing in BC
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@Dante:

When I read that headline I thought "Crap! The police are shooting people now for being uncooperative?"

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6 years 4 months ago
chip
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@Vansanity:

The Vancouver bubble isn't the only reason, or the main one, but it is a significant reason why we have opted to move to Bali for a year. We would like to purchase again in Vancouver but since we can run our businesses remotely, and we are not keen to lose several hundred thousand on real estate in the next few years, we've decided on a little holiday until things return to normal.

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6 years 4 months ago
Makaya
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@condo conundrum: There is a 6 sq.ft. difference between the two places. That's $148,000 more if you want the additional space, or $24K per sq.ft.

Or maybe this has to do with the fact that the more expensive one is more recent. Apparently, it was built in 1996, when the cheaper one was built in 1995 🙂

lol…

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6 years 4 months ago
Best place on meth
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@chip:

You lucky dog, I wish I could do what you're doing.

You're going to love Bali, it actually could qualify as the best place on earth.

Awesome people, amazing scenery, beautiful houses, perfect weather, world class diving….just watch out for the monkeys, they're troublemakers.

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6 years 4 months ago
Anonymous
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"Awesome people, amazing scenery, beautiful houses, perfect weather, world class diving….just watch out for the monkeys, they’re troublemakers."

Cheap houses too. It is a wonder what terrorism and world wide travel advisories can do to real estate prices.

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6 years 4 months ago
victoria
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MSM media is sure changing its tune.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/01/26/what-happens-w…

Wow!

Also good luck Chip. You are lucky. I love monkey's btw.

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6 years 4 months ago
Best place on meth
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@DEFAULT NAME:

>>>It is a wonder what terrorism and world wide travel advisories can do to real estate prices.<<<

Spoken like a true Vancouver cheerleader who's travel experiences have been limited to Bellis Fair and Disneyland.

You poor baby, are you afraid of terrorists everytime you leave Gangcouver?

Better stay away from the US and Europe too then, ok?

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6 years 4 months ago
Yalie
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Any ideas for shorting the impending Vancouver real estate crash?

Debt collection agencies are the lowest of the low, but they do well in tough economic times:

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2…

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6 years 4 months ago
patriotz
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@Makaya:

Or you can rent a similar place in the same hood for $2100/month:

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2774124…

As an investment those condos are only worth about $200K. Remember it's leasehold and the last owner has to give it back.

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6 years 4 months ago