Historical Sell List Ratios

VHB has a post over at Housing Analysis looking at the last few years of sell / list ratios in Vancouver. He’s got two charts there, one based on daily data in the VCI forum and one going further back to 2001 based on REBGV data. Interesting to see the difference in years like 06, 08 and 2011.

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Annonymass
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Annonymass

Yeah Fixie…New West was so much better a few years ago when it was full of addicts and criminals…Do you actually believe the crap you post?
http://www.tenthtothefraser.ca/2011/05/03/32-drop

pipewrench
Member
pipewrench

@fixie guy:

great call but 2 pictures will help those who are still drinking the kool-aid.

http://www.aqualab.cs.northwestern.edu/images/whe

http://www.hrsolutionsinc.com/engagementcalculato

YLTN @ Work
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YLTN @ Work

@paulb.: I always love that the REBGV not only cherry picks which stats to put in each release but also decides to do YOY comparisons to different degrees depending on what makes things look best. For example, total home sales compared to 2010 and 2009 but when talking about December sales, they had to go back to at least 2008 so they could show that 2011 had an increase in sales.

If these guys wrote press releases for public companies, they would be run out of town by analysts

Troll
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Troll
@YLTN @ Work: Seriously, you too? Hard to make a good case that they are spinning by including 2008, when there's commments like this in the press release: Last year’s home sale total was 6.3 per cent below the ten-year average for annual Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales in the region. Last year’s listing total was 11.1 per cent above the ten-year average for annual Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) property listings in the region. The overall residential benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for Greater Vancouver increased 7.6 per cent to $621,674 between Decembers 2010 and 2011. However, prices have decreased 1.5 per cent since hitting a peak of $630,921 in June 2011. Pretty accurate statements no? Although that nimrod from yesterday would argue they shouldn't go by benchmarks but quote the 13% average price drop… Read more »
granite countertop
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granite countertop

@Annonymass: New West is better off than it was a decade ago. The skytrain-mall is really cool.
This development is justification for prices to rise, but not to obscene levels. The only reason New West doesn't seem obscene is because it's next to Vancouver.
My main reason for living in New West is most of the housing was built before the bubble, so it was built to be lived in. Recent stuff is built as a financial instrument. It's massively overpriced, is shoddy construction with faux-luxury finishes like granite countertops.
I have the investment sense to not buy a condo here. I'm sorry if you've made that mistake.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@Patiently Waiting:

How would any respectable home inspector miss that! Any bets this house was bought in a bidding war and their offer was accepted because it had no "subject-to"s? If that's the case then sorry but buyer beware… but at least they got to take their shot at home ownership

registered
Member
registered

26 Annonymass Says:"Yeah Fixie…New West was so much better a few years ago when it was full of addicts and criminals…"

Criminals don't like movies and groceries?

Annonymass
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Annonymass

@GC..Nope not a Condo person..But they meet the needs of Many people out there.
http://www.westerninvestor.com/index.php/news/bc/

YLTN @ Work
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YLTN @ Work
@Troll: I'm not trying to spin as bearish I just would like to see the REBGV pick a couple metrics and consistently write to them month in month out. They change the dates, YOY, MOM, periods, everything. Just go with the standard metrics: Listings Sales Benchmark Go back 3 years for the same month on all metrics. Who cares about the trend versus the prior month, we all know that this is skewed by seasonality. I don't usually read the colour commentary and go straight to the numbers so I can justify my own opinion but what gets me is that our useless media are so lazy that they just grab the headline and use the numbers from the first paragraph to justify. BTW, listings slightly up and sales slightly down is not balanced, this is two moves in opposite… Read more »
YLTN @ Work
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YLTN @ Work

Y'know, I hear people talk about New West as the up and coming area because it is still affordable… Hold on a second, the rest of Canada looks pretty affordable compared to anywhere in the lower mainland and all these opinions that we are reading about a Canadian bubble are talking about Canada as a whole – the part of the country that looks affordable compared to "affordable" New West.

The only thing New West is good for is Mug's n' Jugs

Troll
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Troll

@YLTN @ Work: Sure, consistency would be good, but the reports don't strike me as particularly pollyannaish. And all the numbers and charts are right there in a pretty concise package and at least they are presented consistently.

BTW, listings slightly up and sales slightly down is not balanced, this is two moves in opposite direction that point to a declining market

Disagree here, because we are coming off a pretty strong rising market. So these moves brings us back to a more stable market. Let's see if they continue to move in the negative direction. For the upcoming spring market, I'm curious to see how many new listings we'll add. I'd expect sales to hold up relatively well, barring rate increases or another recession.

Annonymass
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Annonymass

New West is comparable with Halifax N.S. take from that what you will.
http://homes.point2.com/CA/Nova-Scotia/Halifax-Co

Yalie
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Yalie
@Troll: Bears, you are doing yourselves a disservice by trying to spin everything as bearish. … RE market is exactly what I’ve been saying for a while, boring and pretty stagnant. Does it look like things are slowing? Yes, but not dramatically. I actually agree with your first point – both bulls and bears have a tendency to spin every micro-stat as a point in their favor (including me). What really matters, though, is the big picture. And on that front the bears win every time, due to the simple fact that price/rent and price/incomes are at an all-time high in BC and especially in Vancouver. And they have always fallen from those highs in the past. Always. Even if you use metrics of "affordability" that take into account our historically low interest rates (e.g. mortgage payments as a percentage… Read more »
DaMann
Member
DaMann

@DEFAULT NAME:

This is very true but at the end of the day they seller should be sued. There is easy proof that they knew. Dry wall and wiring dates prove that the old seller knew. Yet in this wonderful city the buyer is pretty much screwed even if it wasn't disclosed and it's against the law. The seller broke the law but nothing will happen.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@YLTN @ Work:

New West median condo prices fell 2% in December from 301K to $295K.

House prices were unavailable since the 6 paltry sales in December (down from 25 last Dec.) didn't meet the minimum of 20 to qualify for pricing.

So yeah, that looks pretty up and coming to me – especially now that people there can go to a Cineplex and Safeway.

Annonymass
Guest
Annonymass

@Yallie…If people can come up with the full 20% down(and many can) I really don't see renting as being any cheaper..and trying to find a Nice place to rent is difficult so people see a newer building and they say what the hell.Prices will probably be flat going forward but it looks like demand will still be there.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/07/real_estate/home_

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Annonymass:

"If people can come up with the full 20% down(and many can) I really don’t see renting as being any cheaper"

Are you pretending or are really financially illiterate?

Annonymass
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Annonymass

@Makaya…Just because you're poor doesn't mean everyone else is.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@Annonymass:

Well you answered the question anyhow. You are financially illiterate if you think Makaya was talking about the 20% down.

Even with 50% down you'd be hard-pressed to find a place where your mortgage payments are less than equivalent rent, and that ignores the opportunity cost, risk of a falling market, etc.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

BREAKING NEWS!!

A house sold in Richmond today, actually 3 of them.

10%, 12% and 14% below asking price.

Unfortunately 29 were listed. Should hit 41 again by days end.

Annonymass
Guest
Annonymass

@Default Name… If you enjoy living in whalley..More power to ya.

Devore
Member
Devore

@Patiently Waiting:

East Van house has extensive fire damage, but sellers fail to disclose in PDS. Nothing buyers can do about it except blow another $200k on renos, and whine to the media.

Well, surely the realtor's(tm) errors & omissions insurance will cover this, that's why they paid them the big bucks?

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Annonymass: "Just because you’re poor doesn’t mean everyone else is."

lol, thanks for answering my question. I have no doubt you're indeed financially illiterate.

By the way, do you know how to get poor very quickly? By putting all your wealth in a 20% downpayment for an over-valued property in Vancouver these days… I'm sure you've done so 🙂

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Best place on meth: that's a sell/list ratio of 7.5%… Interesting! At this pace, the spring season will be indeed very interesting to watch.

specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000

@Best place on meth:

BPOM, how does one get such up to the moment data? I'd love to try on different cities as well.