Martin Armstrong lists Canada under “RE markets to avoid”

While some Canadian cities offer reasonable affordability compared to household incomes, Vancouver’s housing is, by any measure, highly overvalued and vulnerable to a sharp correction. Prices have risen 55% from their 2009 trough to a level 29% above their prior peak. The average home price reached nearly C$800,000 (according to CMHC).

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Anonymous
Guest

AKA the needle and the damage done, with the "heroin" still being sold freely on the street.

patriotz
Member
Florida GOP primary rides on housing crisis blame The housing crisis is at the heart of 2012 politics in the quintessential swing state. Florida Republicans are making their choice in Tuesday’s GOP primary based on which candidate they feel bears less blame for the mess their state is in. The collapse that sent the massive luxury homes around Lutz plunging to a quarter of their 2007 values upended not only the lives of those with underwater mortgages and unbending bankers. It cut a swath through every sector and social stratum. Of course nobody – not the candidates and not the… Read more »
southseacompany
Member

Another view from the outside:

"Canada's Subprime Crisis Seen With U.S.-Styled Loans: Mortgages" San Francisco Chronicle, Jan 30/12

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/

southseacompany
Member
Anonymous
Guest

Look at page 18 in the Martin Armstrong article. He shows a 78 year real estate cycle with the final 26 years being a contraction. Those waiting for a quick bottom may be disappointed. Real estate will likely be a declining asset for the next 20 years. Renting may be the best option for a long time. Look at the US they are over 5 years in to a RE contraction with no bottom in sight and many areas still being very pricey.

paradox
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Sheesh
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@ DEFAULT NAME the Cons are planning to increase French and English speaking immigration at the expense of family reunification immigration. Currently, immigrants can sponsor their parents and dependent children. I strongly suspect the Conservatives will try to remove the parents from this equation. After all, they are beyond their working years and will almost certainly become a burden on the healthcare system. As well, they may try to do away with the practice of recognizing dual citizenship. I recall there were whispers about this back during the trouble in Lebanon in 2006 (we spent $85 million evacuating citizens who… Read more »
SunBlaster
Guest

Now with CONservative government in majority, get ready for supersonic speeds in wealth transfer, where private losses will be transferred to a public balance sheet for a greater good. Anyone who believes that this government in particular is going to to anything about curbing this overheated RE market, knows nothing about finance and politics or the global power structure.

patriotz
Member
@SunBlaster: "As well, they may try to do away with the practice of recognizing dual citizenship." Do you mean recognizing dual citizenship or allowing dual citizenship? Not recognizing dual citizenship means that if you are a Canadian citizen you cannot represent yourself as a foreign citizen to the Canadian government. Not allowing dual citizenship means that you cannot hold Canadian citizenship at the same time as that of another country. China, for example, does not recognize dual citizenship but allows it. I double very much that you're going to see dual citizenship outlawed as it would negatively affect a great… Read more »
observer
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Martin Arthur Armstrong (born November 1, 1949 in New Jersey) is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He was indicted on September 29, 1999 in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York for conspiracy to defraud the United States.[1] for alleged fraud involving Japanese investors. On August 17, 2006, he pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to defraud the United States.[2] On April 10, 2007, he was sentenced to five years in prison.[3][4] He was released from prison on September 2, 2011.[5]

Wikipedia

VMD
Member
[BMO denies housing bubble] The Bank of Montreal poured cold water on the idea Canada's housing market could be headed for a crash, suggesting that prices are only "moderately high across the country." "Expect the housing boom to cool rather than crash," BMO's chief economist Sherry Cooper and senior economist Sal Guatieri said in a report published Monday. The bank does note, however, three risks to the outlook. 1. A sudden hike in interest rates, 2. a widespread Canadian recession, or 3. an economic slowdown in Asia reducing the number of foreign buyers would all take the air out of… Read more »
vangrl
Member
trash crash alert
Guest

Bank of Montreal (BMO-T58.08-1.14-1.93%) says Canada’s somewhat pricey housing market is likely to cool, not crash.

The bank’s economists say the only real trouble spot is Vancouver, where there are plenty of vacant high-priced condos going begging.

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They forgot to mention dramatic price drops to take take place in West Vancouver, swamped stucco houses in Vancouver to implode and cardboard built box houses in rest of Greater Vancouver and turtle pool country in Surrey and beyond where 20% plus drops are expected in short term.

Asset deflation is taking the world by storm – BC is next up!

patriotz
Member

@trash crash alert:

Their "Canada" does not seem to include Calgary and Edmonton, where prices are over 10% off peak and falling again, and the disaster area of Kelowna and the southern BC interior.

Why don't their reasons for why we're not headed for a bust apply there?

Anonymous
Guest

these kinds of articles drive the bears nuts! soon, more bears will leave for ottawa.

0x13
Guest

@VMD

My understanding is that BMO managed to sell a nice package of MBS that then allowed them to drop the interest to 2.99. From talking to someone at another big Canadian bank BMO is a little late to the party and they want to keep the game going.

Dufus
Guest

Isn't Michael Campbell a disciple of Martin Armstrong? Be care full with the negativity Martin. Only Ozzie J will be left to pump R.E. on Money Talks.

VMD
Member
[Canada needs more tools to cut household debt: FSB] – 1/30/2012 On the debt issue, it said: “Given recent global market developments, it is important for the authorities to continue to strengthen macroprudential surveillance and consider expanding the range of tools at their disposal – which currently include the leverage ratio and various government mortgage insurance eligibility requirements – in order to effectively address any emerging concerns.” The report did not prescribe any specific action to rein in mortgage debt. The issue is not new to Canadians. Carney and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty have warned consumers repeatedly against taking on… Read more »
VMD
Member
Many Franks
Guest

For some reason this tune seems appropriate…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKITpVovTAE

Makaya
Member
And people thought HAM would come to save us all… Shanghai New Home Prices Tumble 41% In Past Week While the number is likely influenced by the Chinese Lunar New Year, property consultant Shanghai UWin Real Estate Information Services Co. released an update on the Chinese new home sales market which is, to say the least troubling. Specifically, according to UWin, Shanghai new home prices fell 40.96% in the week ended January 29, compared to the previous week, to 16,144 yuan/square meter. If correct, it means that local homeowner violence is about to come back with a vengeance, as happened… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest

@paradox:

What a shame that we're doing so poorly. It's depressing looking at that info-graphic. Who's been on watch during this time?

jumping in
Guest

It feels really good to read so many MSM papers bringing this society back to sanity. I was about to doubt my common sense 😉 But it also troubles me that we had to reach such an extent of madness before reacting. Let's hope the landing won't be too hard…

Best place on meth
Guest

Thank god CNY is over, now HAM can get back to listing their houses.

jesse
Member

Et tu, Martin Armstrong?

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