Racist marketing and fact-free media
Look at this garbage. It’s an article submitted by “The BC Real Estate Convention” and printed as if it’s actually news in the Vancouver Sun. First off, the writing is atrocious. Don’t they even have an editor read these advertorials before they’re printed? Second, there are lots of statements presented as fact that have absolutely nothing to back them up:
Experts claim that the Chinese Mainland buyers and investors will continue to seek for overseas investment opportunities, in Vancouver.
Which ‘experts’ are these? Oh never mind, we’ll just take your word for it then.
As it is more cost efficient to purchase a property rather than renting, and considering the long term returns of the investment, purchasing properties in Vancouver become high on demand.
Yeah, somebody is ‘high on demand’ if they really believe that current prices in Vancouver make buying ‘more cost efficient’ than renting. There are many many markets around the world where buying is ‘more cost efficient’ than renting, Vancouver ain’t one of them.
However, as much as Feng shui is a well respected practice by many Chinese immigrants and potential home buyers and investors, there are always those “intelligent” ones that seek to obtain the optimal economic value from their investment in Vancouver’s real estate.
Wow. I don’t even know how to respond to that.
If you go to the The BC Real Estate Convention web site you’ll see that this trade show is sponsored by The Vancouver Sun and Province.
Then there’s this piece over at 24 hours:
Metro Vancouver will receive an influx of businessmen from mainland Chinese this week, intent on spending their two-week Lunar New Year holiday with family, as well as scooping up significant amounts of real estate.
Julia Rowell, sales manager at downtown Vancouver’s Maddox development, said this phenomenon has been going on for over 25 years, but 2012 looks to be especially busy.
Yeah? I think TPFKAA says it best:
HAHAHAHAHA! That’s absolutely hilarious!!
So in 1987, (a full five years before Deng Xiaoping’s reforms that enabled creation of individual fortunes) HAM from mainland China was increasing sales just after CNY.
/facepalm.
The hype seems to be working on the listings side. This year started off with the second highest number of listings in the last ten years and has grown at a faster rate than any of those years, especially on the west side:
I’m sure those sellers are hoping this hype pays off, and maybe it will, but then again maybe our market isn’t driven solely by wealthy offshore buyers. Most local first time buyers aren’t in the market for multimillion dollar homes anyways, so how would this even affect them?
Blaming ‘Chinese buyers’ for out of control prices is simplistic and racist. This city is nearly half asian so of course ‘Chinese buyers’ have an impact, but what about easy credit, low rates, CMHC pumping and local speculators?
Just for comparison, the city of Monterey Park in California has the highest percentage population of Chinese Americans of any US municipality. Here’s what home values there look like over the last few years:
January 23rd, 2012 at 8:45 pm
How accurate are zillow price charts?
At least they have comps available online. Wouldn't that be something.
January 23rd, 2012 at 9:36 pm
Is it subtle irony the Sun published that article in the Entertainment section?
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Hardly racist… The BC Real Estate Convention was started by a Royal LePage Westside realtor named Sanghoon Lee. It is the epicentre of the pump and dump. That he has grown it so big and with such sponsors over the years is a testament to the power of the REIC.
http://www.bcrealestateconvention.com/bcrec/main/…
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Local media and sales shills are a side-show. They're going to ramp up rhetoric and scare tactics as this market continues to implode – it is a sign of their fear. This article has the stench of fear all over it, with a candy-coating of corruption and vested interests.
If you really want to hit the speculators (Chinese and all others) then check out the template letters I posted last night. Enough is enough, time to hit these clowns in their pocket-book. That'll have more impact than anything else. And letters to the Canada Revenue agency is a good place to start. See the VCI forum at this link:
http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/letter-wri…
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Keep telling yourselves that the overseas buyers and media have not "real impact" little bears…
You have been saying that for 7 years and look how right you have been…
Maybe all this backpeddling comes from your realization that you screwed yourselves over for another year with your little pre-mature inventory parties…
Hahaha…here comes chinese New Year boys and girls…and the Chinese version of the Sun..and a Chinese "Globlal TV" station…
Hahahha..keep denying the influence of rich asians…they love little "born and bred in Vancourites" who can only afford to rent their basement suites…
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:57 pm
@rob:
This article brings to mind the "yellow peril" articles that ran about a century ago. The difference back then is that they were claiming the Chinese were going to take away our jobs rather than our houses.
If you wrote today that the Chinese were taking away our jobs you'd get the human rights people after you of course. But in the Bizarro world of RE anything goes.
And please don't say that because that article was likely written by an ethnic Chinese it's not racist. There are many cases in history of members of ethnic minorities inciting racism against their own group for personal gain.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:13 am
This article brings to mind the “yellow peril” articles that ran about a century ago. The difference back then is that they were claiming the Chinese were going to take away our jobs rather than our houses.
If you wrote today that the Chinese were taking away our jobs you’d get the human rights people after you of course. But in the Bizarro world of RE anything goes
_____________
Ah…I see that the PC white liberal guilt of Ottawa has finally gotten to you Patsy…that did not take long at all..
January 24th, 2012 at 12:54 am
rtyt nails it. add: the rich offshore buyer has become a RE folklore. key qualities -> somehow savvy enough to choose vanRE, yet unsavvy enough to disregard high price of crowded trade. nobody is both.
January 24th, 2012 at 1:22 am
Here are the projections, updated with Larry's numbers for yesterday.
Jan-2012
Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 15
Weekends / holidays 8
Days missing 0
Days remaining 6
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 82
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 278
SALES
Sales so far 990
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 492
Projected month end total 1482 +/- 101
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 4254
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1666
Projected month end total 5920 +/- 212
Sell-list so far 23.3%
Projected month-end sell-list 25.0%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of Jan 20, 2012 12764
MoI at this sales pace 8.61
We need to average 291 new listings a day to hit 6000.
We should be very close to the 13K inventory party today. Get your party hats on!
January 24th, 2012 at 1:25 am
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/bloodb…
Bloodbath to hit Australian real estate, analyst Jordan Wirsz says
…
“Right now is not a time to be buying real estate in Australia," Mr Wirsz said.
"The market has slowed substantially but residential prices are likely to fall up to 60 per cent, possibly even more, within five years."
The outlook is even grimmer for land investments, which Mr Wirsz said are more speculative and will plummet by as much as 80 and 90 per cent in value.
Commercial property will also take a hit in line with the residential sector shedding at least 50 per cent of its value.
…
January 24th, 2012 at 1:44 am
@fixie guy:
It's always looked like the Sun has treated real estate as lifestyle and not part of the business section.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:07 am
Look when I lived in Toronto my daughter was in K at a private school. There were a few Russian families at the school. When I asked what do you do for a living I got "Carpenter, Painter etc." This was an expensive private school. These people lived in Rosedale in $2 million houses and the wives wore Prada. They seemed to have a new BMW or Mercedes every week. My husband went to pick our daughter up and one of these Rosedale homes. The dad said "Yes! I am carpenter. Canada good country. When we decide to leave Russia we looked at Europe but Canada more welcoming and easy". Kids went to a birthday at another Russian "house painters" house. Scary people. Big nasty looking Russian men walking around with thick necks. I remember one dad who was picking up his kid saying to me – this has got to be Mafia. When my second child was born the wife (who I barely knew) bought me about $800 worth of clothes from a French children's store in Toronto. I couldn't accept it. Another time I was in the mall and another Russian wife was in Jacadi – expensive French clothing store – buying clothes like crazy for her kids. Big wads of cash. I spoke to the sales girl and she says they are in there all the time – buying $1,000 of dollars worth of clothes for their small children. Always with cash.
This was about 10 years ago.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:07 am
13 DEFAULT NAME Says: "It’s always looked like the Sun has treated real estate as lifestyle…"
Apprently the Sun still wasn't comfortable with the tenuous real world grounding implied by lifestyle. This 'adverticle' really is in entertainment.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:20 am
Can someone get the data and fix VHB's chart?
Too many gaps in the data to compare with any confidence.
Still, love that listings are going parabolic.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:50 am
@fixie guy
"Is it subtle irony the Sun published that article in the Entertainment section?"
That is because their target market only reads the entertainment section.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:55 am
#12 @anon: Re: Australian bloodbath. Remember that Steve Keen fellow?
The funny thing is, I bet most people will dismiss these predictions if they come true. The will dismiss the entire idea that somebody could have and did predict such an extreme change. In short: if you didn't understand why it went up, you're probably not going to do any better on the way down.
January 24th, 2012 at 3:19 am
When I press on the green up botton sometimes the number actually goes down. does this happen to anyone else.
Cheers!
January 24th, 2012 at 3:50 am
It appears our local retailers may have brought down prices enough to stop some cross-border or online Christmas shopping.
http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/323022…
January 24th, 2012 at 3:57 am
@Victoria:
It just updates after you press the button. So if, when you loaded the page the score was +5, and while you were scrolling and reading, two people voted it down, and then you voted it up, the updated score at that point would be +5 – 2 + 1 = +4.
January 24th, 2012 at 4:03 am
You've got to love realtor math!
$469000 / 4br – 1242ft² – Great Investment Opportunity
Mortgage (assuming 5% down) at 4% for 25 years
monthly payment is 2351.77
"Current revenue property with $1530 per month rent (total)."
That's 821.77 out of pocket per month
Then add taxes 250… anybody want to guess how long that old home will go before it needs major repairs?
Sounds like a great investment
(for his commission I guess).
Why anyone would speculate (I mean invest) in a home is beyond me. If you're dead set on it, at least buy a REIT to diversify and let the pros manage your money.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/rds/reb/2815680…
January 24th, 2012 at 4:18 am
@DEFAULT NAME:
Give credit where credit is due, the Realtor does say, "Based on purchase price and mortgage terms, with 25% down rent may cover mortgage."
Unfortunately, the guy did not have a calculator or a list of currently available mortgage terms handy, but it was nice of him to take a guess.
January 24th, 2012 at 4:23 am
[...] demand, economy, hype, opinion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the –>RSS 2.0 comments [...]
January 24th, 2012 at 4:34 am
Only white RE skeptics are racist – by definition.
That garbage in Vancouver Sun is just savvy insight.
January 24th, 2012 at 5:41 am
@N: Even taking the 2.99 25 year special (5 year closed) makes it $100 more than the rental income, not counting property taxes and insurance.
January 24th, 2012 at 5:59 am
how people can claim that there is free press in Canada when content is simply bought by special interest. I am sorry but Canada is plutocracy.
January 24th, 2012 at 6:46 am
@fifi:
How else would a free press work?
The guys at the Sun go to work every morning for money. It's not shocking that they print the things that make them the most money. The press is free in that they are free to do that. You and I are also free to start our own newspapers and print our own version of real estate news (which is basically what we are doing right now).
Can't get much freer than that.
January 24th, 2012 at 6:52 am
"Blaming ‘Chinese buyers’ for out of control prices is simplistic and racist."
I don't see the article as being racist. Inaccurate yes, racist no. They are claiming the Chinese are driving prices. To most this is a good thing (prices rising). That opinion may differ around here (prices rising = good) which is where things seem to get a racist tone. Just saying.
January 24th, 2012 at 6:56 am
@DEFAULT NAME:
"Current revenue property with $1530 per month rent (total).
That’s 821.77 out of pocket per month"
You're including principal payments, and neglecting the fact that the interest payments would be tax-deductible for an investor (but the rental income would be taxable, too).
January 24th, 2012 at 7:20 am
@DEFAULT NAMEe: Good point…in that case it turns out they were right…that's an awesome investment! Now go stick that red herring up your bum
January 24th, 2012 at 7:27 am
This article is racist in the sense that it propagates false information that could trigger a backlash again the Chinese local population. The writer only cares about money, not about the long term consequences of his action on the community. Look at the history of scapegoating during downturns, all over the world, including various degrees of crime. Stigmatization is a very dangerous game to play!!!
January 24th, 2012 at 7:52 am
You know what's really racist?
The stereotype of rich Chinese with suitcases full of cash snapping up real estate – it's practically a caricature.
The real estate industry in this town is filled with the most racist people I've ever seen.
January 24th, 2012 at 8:06 am
@jumpin in: "This article is racist in the sense that it propagates false information that could trigger a backlash again the Chinese local population."
The part you don't get is most people feel prices rising is positive so the impact of the Chinese would be viewed as positive (for most people just not around here at VCI where common sense is used).
January 24th, 2012 at 8:13 am
@N: "How else would a free press work?
The guys at the Sun go to work every morning for money. It’s not shocking that they print the things that make them the most money."
Fear and greed are the two motivations used by the minority in power to control and manipulate the majority. And for you that is OK? What a nice concept what are the norms of decent society you have.
January 24th, 2012 at 8:25 am
@Dante:
You either have the market determining what the media report or the government determining what the media report. Take your pick.
And I'm not at all happy with the quality of the commercial media but the only solution is for the public to become more discerning. The solution can't be imposed.
And that's not an argument for getting rid of the CBC, quite the contrary I like it a lot, but the government controlling only one media outlet is quite different from the government controlling all of them.
January 24th, 2012 at 8:30 am
I'm happy to be living elsewhere in BC now. I get to watch the meltdown from afar. I say "meltdown" as I don't see it eroding too fast. It'll be kind of a sideways, slightly downward trajectory for a few years now. I'm just fine with that as I won't need to buy in the lower mainland
January 24th, 2012 at 8:36 am
@The Leak
Where in BC can you view the RE meltdown from "afar"? IMHO most of the province is going to get hit even harder than Vancouver, indeed it already has been.
January 24th, 2012 at 8:40 am
"The part you don’t get is most people feel prices rising is positive so the impact of the Chinese would be viewed as positive (for most people just not around here at VCI where common sense is used)."
The part that you don't get, is that I witness an anti-Chinese sentiment growing in my community, even among those who are becoming richer, and it is getting scary. They complain about:
their neighborhood becoming dead (absent owners),
not being able to interact with neighbors who do not speak English,
bad vibes at the local coffee shop that is now full of parvenus,
fear that the Chinese will gain political power and not give a s… about the environment and the First Nation people,
complains that their community centre offers too many activities in Mandarin,
complains that not enough kids speak English at school,
fear about a change of values if too many nouveau riches live here,
fear of racial tensions,
fear of rampant corruption and crime in case we let in two many corrupt officials,
upset because of the hospice and the rich kids racing on highways,
fear that importing elders can threaten the health system, etc…
Some are moving to do an ethical relocation, not because they are racist, but because they are not comfortable suddenly feeling they live in the middle of Little China, with no one to relate to.
Do you know that some Universities and Colleges in BC would not open a course if there is a long wait list of Canadian students, but will if the wait list is made of international students? And tax payers should not feel upset about it?
Not every one is willing to sell their heritage/values/community for money. Reducing life, and planning, to money is a pathetic choice, a choice our politicians should think twice before making.
January 24th, 2012 at 8:48 am
@Dante: What does the press have to do with "decent society"? What does that even mean?
If you want "free press", you'll have to pay for it. 100% and directly, none of that CBC/NPR/PBS nonsense (who represent the views of the government and special interests). That's all there is to it. Frankly, I'm surprised anyone is surprised. One of the drawbacks of free newspapers, free TV, free radio, is that you're now not the customer, and no one cares what you think as long as you keep turning it on.
January 24th, 2012 at 9:06 am
@Anonymous: The part you don’t get is most people feel prices rising is positive so the impact of the Chinese would be viewed as positive
What? Since when did people viewing something as positive cancel out racism? I'm sure a lot of property owners in the south saw slavery as a positive, that doesn't mean they weren't racist.
January 24th, 2012 at 9:42 am
Mon & Tues:
New Listings 637
Price Changes 120
Sold Listings 190
TI:13084
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
January 24th, 2012 at 9:48 am
A house on Dunbar and 34th just sold for $1,075,000.
Asking price $1,300,000.
January 24th, 2012 at 9:52 am
Whoa. Has it begun? I mean, REALLY begun?
January 24th, 2012 at 9:57 am
@jumpin in:
They complain about:
their neighborhood becoming dead (absent owners),
not being able to interact with neighbors who do not speak English,
bad vibes at the local coffee shop that is now full of parvenus,
fear that the Chinese will gain political power and not give a s… about the environment and the First Nation people,
complains that their community centre offers too many activities in Mandarin,
complains that not enough kids speak English at school,
fear about a change of values if too many nouveau riches live here,
fear of racial tensions,
fear of rampant corruption and crime in case we let in two many corrupt officials,
upset because of the hospice and the rich kids racing on highways,
fear that importing elders can threaten the health system, etc…
Some are moving to do an ethical relocation, not because they are racist, but because they are not comfortable suddenly feeling they live in the middle of Little China, with no one to relate to.
These are all valid complaints and there is absolutely nothing wrong with them from the human and social point of view. People normally complain (and should) while witnessing deterioration of the community and society. It is happening quickly and on the large scale so it could be shocking and traumatizing for some. Sadly those who are helpless (financially and politically), concerned and affected are labeled as racist which is totally wrong and unfair.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:02 am
Holy crap – it's 13K time!
Based on Larry's numbers yesterday that would leave today at:
New Listings 330
Price Changes 67
Sold Listings 117
13,000 – 3rd inventory party of the month!!!
January 24th, 2012 at 10:03 am
This city is still so bush league. True world class cities don't puff their chests speculating about a few foreigners getting off a plane.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:09 am
@Best place on meth: …A house on Dunbar and 34th just sold for $1,075,000…
When it drop another $800k it'll be in the right price-range.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:12 am
Jan-2012
Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 16
Weekends / holidays 8
Days missing 0
Days remaining 5
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 89
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 279
SALES
Sales so far 1107
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 445
Projected month end total 1552 +/- 111
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 4584
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1394
Projected month end total 5978 +/- 186
Sell-list so far 24.1%
Projected month-end sell-list 26.0%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of Jan 24, 2012 13084
MoI at this sales pace 8.43
I'm going to make the 13K party thread. See you there!!
January 24th, 2012 at 10:12 am
@Dante: …Fear and greed are the two motivations used by the minority in power to control and manipulate the majority. …
Fear, greed, and crop circles – you left out crop circles!
January 24th, 2012 at 10:19 am
Wow… 13k!!! Extrapolating the expansion of inventory moving forward indefinitely, we should have our 100k party sometime in late 2014!
What's that???? Oh… You can't extrapolate a small sample forward forever?? That's right…. That would be bs cheerleader math wouldn't it? Note to the bulls…. Extrapolating past results forward as the "new paradigm" is absurd at best and felonious at worst. Reversion to the mean is as predictable as the tides, and I sense we are starting to see the first signs of a bitching' undertow hitting shore.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:31 am
[...] demand, economy, hype, opinion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the –>RSS 2.0 comments [...]
January 24th, 2012 at 10:36 am
@jumpin in: "The part that you don’t get, is that I witness an anti-Chinese sentiment growing in my community, even among those who are becoming richer, and it is getting scary. They complain about:"
I don't see that, but I have no doubt there is anti Chinese sentiment out there for many of the reasons you pointed out. But it has little or nothing to do with the rising price of real estate. Most people are cheer leaders for prices of real estate and seem jovial when talking about the Chinese buying it up.
Do you ever notice there is no politician standing up and denouncing the real estate bubble in Canada with promises to deflate it (an easy promise)? Do you see politicians standing up in the US and claiming responsibility for deflating the bubble? The answer is no. The reason is most people/voters have a vested interest in real estate and like it when it goes up in value. You obviously still don't get it.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:54 am
@DEFAULT NAME: Is this racist?
Sounds like they're saying that most Chinese are superstitious morons who can be sold a bill of goods as long as the Feng shui is good, and there are just a few 'intelligent' ones that actually want a good deal. Smells like racism to me.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:56 am
@VHB:
VHB are we going to get Pau's numbers or has he given up on the site?
Maybe he is just putting it up at his own site? Anyone have a line?
January 24th, 2012 at 11:10 am
Seems the market is coughing up listings four times faster than HAM can scoop it up. Ceiling too low for helicopters?
January 24th, 2012 at 11:17 am
@frank: Look for comment 41 on this thread.. Paulb is in da houz…
January 24th, 2012 at 11:22 am
Hey guys, ModernVancouverMortgages is ripping off this site – I just checked it out and they've copied this post in full and have other ones from here. That site says it's run by Mei Nor Lee and that he's a BMO mortgage specialist. Is the Bank of Montreal really ok with wholesale ripping off of other blogs? Here's their copy of this post:
http://www.modernvancouvermortgages.com/racist-ma…
I wonder if they'll accept comments on that?
January 24th, 2012 at 11:32 am
Get your barf bags ready, CBC is just as bad as any other media at hyping Chinese culture.
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Canada/BC/12585210…
January 24th, 2012 at 11:47 am
malcolm hussman… what a douchebag ,,,if i could punch him just once
January 24th, 2012 at 11:48 am
However, this story from CBC is pretty good:
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Canada/BC/12585210…
Reporter says many boomers in Vancouver think they don't have to worry about retirement because their real estate will take care of that.
The subject in the story, who is well prepared for retirement with no more mortgage, talks about leaving our expensive city for another country where his retirement dollars will stretch further. Smart guy.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:16 pm
for those who follow Surrey RE…
[Property taxes going up: 2.9% increase each year over 5 years]
http://www.cknw.com/Channels/Reg/NewsLocal/Story….
January 24th, 2012 at 12:34 pm
@Yaya:
See post #15.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:34 pm
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/res…
<<<<<<<<<<<<"This time it’s different – or is it?"<<<<<<<<<<<<<
“Right now is not a time to be buying real estate in Australia”, he says. “Residential prices are likely to fall up to 60%, possibly even more, within five years.”
This time it’s different – or is it?
And on a side note:
Has the IMF, and other think tanks considered it's the year of the dragon before downgrading world GDP forecast?
Probably not, as the science behind it is a bit too complex for the PHD eggheads, best left to realtors.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
@Yaya: No big deal…they provided a link to our site as the source….we do it all the time
January 24th, 2012 at 2:23 pm
I'm not sure borrowing 100s of thousands of $$$ for a mortgage from folks who can't proof read their own website is prudent. Perhaps that's just me. Lots of other choices in this market aren't prudent either.
"Custom Mortages for Real Life."
January 24th, 2012 at 2:38 pm
@TNT:
"malcolm hussman… what a douchebag ,,,if i could punch him just once"
Hey!!!!…………….only BPOM can assign the title of 'douchy' to the douchebags. LOL!!!!
January 24th, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Hey Paulb, desperate for an inventory update eh???
January 24th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
@DEFAULT NAME: I haven't seen this site post entire copies of posts from other site, usually just excerpts and a link.
January 24th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
[Caution: Stay away from buying/renting at Richmond Steveston waterfront area]
According to a member at the Chinese forum who attended a city hall meeting today, the problem with dyke breach (among other foundation/other problems that the user did not disclose) caused by developer Onni is "very serious".
Area affected is South of Moncton, East of #1 Rd, West of Bayview.
He also said "if you really want to buy there, find a good home inspector to do a detailed examination"
<a href="http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2 Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Ft%3D422833%2Flang%3Dschinese.html” target=”_blank”>http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&…” target=”_blank”>Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Ft%3D422833%2Flang%3Dschinese.html
January 24th, 2012 at 8:34 pm
@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps:
Speaking of garbage in the papers, haven't you heard? Prices are on their way back up in Australia.
These are the actual news headlines based on an Australian Property Monitors (media-owned BTW) report released today:
"Prices on the rise"
"Melbourne leads house rise"
"House prices rebound in mixed market"
"National prices edging up"
Now what were the actual numbers from the report? For the December 2011 quarter the average price of an Australian home was $533,650, up from $533,521 the previous quarter.
That's right, these headlines were generated from a report that found the median price went up by a whopping $129, or 0.02%.
Apartment prices were down 0.5%.
Even by RE reporting standards this is low.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:00 am
More Sino-pumping, this time from CBC:
"Year of Dragon heats B.C. real estate market" Jan 25/12
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/st…
No figures or sources, just conjecture and hearsay.
The hope is spilling to San Fran;
http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2012/01/23/year…
January 25th, 2012 at 12:11 am
CBC forgot to inform us that 2012 is also, according to a variety of sources:
the end-date of a 5,125-year-long cycle in the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar
the end time preceding the second coming of Christ
the date of the collision with the hidden planet Nibiru
None of these are good for real estate.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:56 am
http://karolinagames.com/horatio/show.php?id=db74…
January 25th, 2012 at 12:58 am
@jumpin in: LOL good point.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:27 am
@Apocarypse Mao:
Holly shit…
UBC Prof. Duanduan Li says the Year of the Dragon is auspicious for big changes, including big purchases. (CBC)
UBC Profesor, Profesor…???
O tempora o mores!
January 25th, 2012 at 1:38 am
CBC gets taxpayer funding so are held more accountable:
http://www.cbc.ca/ombudsman/contact.html
Pretty gutless of them to disallow comments on the story.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:54 am
Speaking of news not being reported: Don't you think its strange that prices in Kelowna are down 20-30% and inventory measured in years not months but its hasn't been in the news at all?
I was speaking with a friend who was telling me his house is down 25%-30% from the peak and no one seems to know about it until they go to list.
MSM has no motivation to share the bad news. Pump pump pump.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:58 am
Sorry if this was posted before:
"We do not believe that the Canadian financials can buck the anticipated easing of domestic growth. Deleveraging of Canadian households is a theme that we believe will weigh on the group for several years to come," argues Aiken.
A recent report from Bloomberg warns of an impending housing bubble in Canada as banks compete to offer mortgages at rates as low as 2.99 percent as their funding costs drop on investor demand for the relative safety of Canadian bonds amid Europe's fiscal crisis.
Earlier this week The Bank of Canada (BoC) released its quarterly monetary policy report, one of three financial releases predicting a bumpy road to recovery as Europe struggles with its sovereign debt crisis and a recession expected to be "deeper and longer than previously predicted."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/canadian-banks-b…
January 25th, 2012 at 2:00 am
It is all very well to think you can move to another country for retirement but are you going to get residency? if you don't get residency you don't get health care.
We brought my husband's mother over when she was 80 as a family member. She was financially independent and no burden on the Canadian Tax Payer. We were sponsoring her. We put her in one of the really nice retirement homes in the city. She was waiting for her Canadian residency papers. As she was over 60-65 she was at the bottom of the "list" as she was not really contributing to Canadian society. I must add she was coming from France so she was not a refugee. Anyway, finally after 4 years she was able to go for her medical for residency. She had early stage Alzheimer's and unless she could prove that she could pay about $10,000 a month for dementia care she would not be accepted. Well she had to be sent back to France. Her years in Canada were very expensive. Every doctors visit was paid in cash. Her medication had to be paid in Cash. The only thing he insurance would cover was if she had an emergency and had to go to the hospital. She had to have an ultra sounds – paid in cash, blood test etc. etc. It was not easy.
Anyway the long and the short of it is it is not that easy to change countries especially if you older. She was a very healthy vibrant woman but when things started to go wrong it went very fast. She died a year later after returning to France. Actually she was quite happy to go back because Canadians were a bunch of stinking thieves and kept stealing her shower cap etc.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:02 am
The New York Times has come up with the worst idea in the history of mankind:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/25/opinion/down-pa…
What is it with people that they believe that the only way the economy can be healthy is through debt and inflation?
January 25th, 2012 at 2:03 am
Can you imagine CBC doing a report in Kelowna:
"Prices are falling 30% in anticipation of the End Time. Prof. Simson for UBC Okanagan says that when the Apocalypse is approaching, people stop buying, marrying and having babies."
January 25th, 2012 at 2:04 am
actually Prof Li is correct in stating that the dragon year is a year of big changes for those that follow the lunar calender (or believe in it). That is a big reason for many younger asians(at the prodding of their parents) to have children this year and get married. It is considered lucky. Homeownership- at the push of the parents and with associated "charitable" funding- is just part of it.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:05 am
any of you bears see the bubbles when you make love to your partners? I am sure vreaa does! lol.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:08 am
@jumpin in:
I completely disagree. In the event that the Earth collides with the hidden planet Nibiru (which is almost a certainty) Vancouver may well be surrounded on one side by mountains, one side by water and one side by a gaping abyss. This will prove once and for all that not only are they not making real estate any more but they are actively destroying it. I'm not sure who "They" are but I for one welcome them and the price increases that they bring. The other option is that prices come down but we all know that prices only go up, so this is ridiculous. Next time think before you post;-)
January 25th, 2012 at 2:20 am
@McLovin:
They say that when the bubble bursts, the first phase is denial.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:30 am
@WFT?:
I think Kelowna's probably in Fear stage..
http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/wp-content/uplo…
January 25th, 2012 at 2:47 am
A new record for Vancouver? Definitely will pull Jan stats up!
$25M mansion sold in Point Grey with an almost $50K property tax bill to along with it. Seriously, you need to win the entire Lotta Max $50M jackpot to buy and maintain this! How many people in Vancouver makes enough for this kind of houses??
http://www.manyeelui.com/ActiveListings.php/Detai…
January 25th, 2012 at 2:51 am
@observer: Selling is a bit change too, no?
January 25th, 2012 at 2:56 am
" need to win the entire Lotta Max $50M jackpot "
speaking of Lotto, i read in the paper that more and more Canadians count on Lotto for the their retairements needs. What a fucked up society this become.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:05 am
@space889:
What would the commission on that be?
January 25th, 2012 at 3:09 am
Recently had lunch with a friend of mine. During our lunch he told me that he was going to quit his job to become a realtor. Was quite surprised as he was just promoted and is doing very well. I launched into the usually bear arguments: debt-to-income, easy lending standards (CMHC), risk of further restrictions regarding mortgages, housing starts and that most economists are waving red flags regarding Canada's RE market.
He seemed surprised by my comments and said that he hadn't heard any of this before and wouldn't even begin to know where to look for that kind of information. We've talked about RE before and as I pointed out to him that I'm still wrong but have been right about every other housing bust I called, from the U.S. to Ireland to Spain — Australia's right around the corner, and that at some point I'll be right about Canada's as well.
In any event, I didn't dissuade him. He is a great salesman and will undoubtedly have success regardless of getting in at the top of the market, taking on tonnes of listings and having to deal with future sellers that will refuse to lower prices because their house is worth more. I wished him luck and told him to make sure that he had plenty of cash set aside to grow his business.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:18 am
For those of you who are middle class or merely lower upper class and may not be familiar with Vancouver's finest neighborhoods, that Belmont Avenue neighborhood where Manyee Lui sold the $25 million dollar house is almost exclusively PRC Chinese. What Canadians could afford to live there?
January 25th, 2012 at 3:36 am
"Canada's job market in bad shape, study"
http://www.globalnews.ca/canada39s+job+market+in+…
"And he [Benjamin Tal] says the combination of a cooling housing market and the end of stimulus infrastructure projects will hit the construction industry hard."
This is why it's been dubbed a False economy.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:46 am
@Runawayscreaming:
"What Canadians could afford to live there?"
Quite a few actually, but most wealthy Canadians like to live where the head offices and business action are, which excludes Vancouver to a large extent.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:56 am
#90,
you know sh$t. it's all hindsight from the news. if you know, why didnt you become the bank governor! why are all the bears think they are super intelligent!
January 25th, 2012 at 3:57 am
that why you moved to ottawa? have you got a job yet?
January 25th, 2012 at 3:58 am
@jumpin in: Shouldn't these people be blaming the sellouts who took money over all the other stuff they listed as being bad? Why are they blaming the buyers instead of the sellers? If no one sells to these kind of bad apples then you wouldn't have these problems would you?
Seems hypocritical to take money with one hand while spanking at those giving you the money with the other hand.
January 25th, 2012 at 4:16 am
Can I ask for some advice?
I want to check that my understanding is correct. Our landlady wants to sell. She plans to list in April and, of course, she expects to close in April. My understanding is that our tenancy (which has been month to month following on the expiry of the initial fixed term agreement years ago) can only be ended if the new owners or a family member plans to move in, and that the earliest it can be ended in two months from the date at which all subjects are removed.
The thing I am really interested in is the timing. The landlady has said June first, but we would rather move in July, after school ends, as more rental stock will be available. My thinking is that, if she list in April, subjects will not be removed before the end of April, which should give us to the end of June.
Thoughts?
January 25th, 2012 at 4:21 am
Poor DEFAULT. Don't worry about me. I'm a 1 percenter. Didn't get here by making unwise decisions – like buying an overvalued house. Is DEFAULT your name or is that what you are plan to do?
January 25th, 2012 at 4:27 am
@N: @N:
I think your undestanding is right – you must be give two months notice and only if the new owners want to move in. So you proably have till at least the end of June.
But give the current state of inventory I suspect that you landlord will have difficulty selling the place in less than a month.
January 25th, 2012 at 4:32 am
space889 Says: "Shouldn’t these people be blaming the sellouts who took money over "
Fuck it. I dont giva a damn. I sold my prime Kerrisdale home to HAM and I dont give a shit if they demolish it and build monstrocity all with rice cooker in each of the bedrooms. I do not care what hypocrite would say, they would do the same if in my position. I am comfortably retired in Boca Ratin and sipping pina Coladas all day. If i did not cash out i would be living on $700 government pension cheques and eating from garbage bins. fuck that. fuck government. I am thankfull for HAM.
January 25th, 2012 at 4:39 am
@space889:
For $25 million you can:
"Watch ships passing by the Burrard Inlet or star glazing at night,"
Because who wouldn't want to be a star glazer?
Seriously, though, that house isn't worth $25 million and if they paid close to asking they're looking at a 50% cut pretty quickly.
January 25th, 2012 at 4:40 am
So the US Fed is saying they now don't expect to raise rates until late 2014.
January 25th, 2012 at 4:46 am
@chip: "Seriously, though, that house isn’t worth $25 million and if they paid close to asking they’re looking at a 50% cut pretty quickly."
For what it's worth, assessed value is about $15m
January 25th, 2012 at 5:02 am
@balboa
While I doubt you are in florida, have you really thought about your comment and state of mind? I assume you have no children or limited family members but otherwise are equally are happy to carve economics from them to pay your bar tab. Congratulations.
January 25th, 2012 at 5:07 am
Can anyone explain what happened to 771 Prior St.? It's been on and off the market in various incarnations and at variously silly prices. Most recently, as three separate, dubiously backed listings ("motivated seller" … "bring your offer").
All three listings (V923121, V923135, V923136) disappeared a couple of days ago. I'm curious, because this is one of several "shadow" properties I see regularly that's been off the market, with a realtor's sign out front, for a substantial part of the last couple of years.
January 25th, 2012 at 5:16 am
I'm getting conflicting messages here guys!
http://www.windsorstar.com/business/Windsor+housi… http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Edmonton+hou…
January 25th, 2012 at 5:16 am
@longorshort:
If he actually lived in Boca Raton I doubt he'd spell it "Boca Ratin". Probably everything else he says is lies as well. Perhaps he knows Dave?
January 25th, 2012 at 5:17 am
@96 space889 Says: " Shouldn’t these people be blaming the sellouts who took money over all the other stuff they listed as being bad? "
I'll ask again: how do you propose sellers confirm the source of buyer income, especially when they might only see the realtor? How do you do it in your daily work life?
Tracking the potential proceeds of crime is the government's responsibility, part of its law enforcement mandate. Citizens aware of an unreported crime can be culpable but that's COMPLETELY different than a responsibility to confirm you never inadvertently come into contact with crime proceeds. The latter is nearly impossible.
January 25th, 2012 at 5:23 am
@space889:
"Shouldn’t these people be blaming the sellouts who took money over all the other stuff they listed as being bad?"
Most likely they were going to sell anyway regardless of who was buying and how much they were willing to pay. If they sold to someone other than the high bidder, that person could turn around and sell it for more. Why should a seller take less than the high bid?
And if they didn't sell, prices would be higher because there would be less supply.
"Why are they blaming the buyers instead of the sellers?"
Because buyers determine the sale price, not sellers. Buyers are ALWAYS responsible for inflated RE prices.
But I don't think an offshore buyer is any more responsible than a local buyer who is willing to pay a ridiculous price (that is, all local buyers).
January 25th, 2012 at 5:26 am
@DEFAULT NAMEe:
"So the US Fed is saying they now don’t expect to raise rates until late 2014."
If you think that's good news for the RE market, either in the US or here, you obviously haven't thought through why they're saying that.
January 25th, 2012 at 5:32 am
longorshort Says:
" I assume you have no children or limited family members but otherwise are equally are happy to carve economics from them to pay your bar tab."
re children: paid them Ivy League education from cashed out propery in Van. they will have bight future whereever they end up… again thanks to HAM.
and what you are going to give to your children? moldy basement and langara college and certain unemployment after that.
January 25th, 2012 at 5:38 am
@Clockbike: Edmonton is the most affortable of the six largest Canadian cities. Windsor doesn't qualify for that one.
January 25th, 2012 at 5:45 am
@N: Here's the form your landlord's supposed to use: http://www.rto.gov.bc.ca/documents/RTB-32.pdf
If the landlord is selling the unit, they can't serve this notice to you until all the subjects for the sale of the unit have been removed, so that starts the 2-month window. In addition, the purchaser has to have asked the landlord, in writing, to get rid of the tenants.
If you've got a great relationship with your landlord and want to do them a favour, tell them about the form.
If you don't have such a good relationship with the landlord, don't tell them about the RTO form. It's the landlord's responsibility to know about this, and I assume the landlord will hire a realtor, and if the realtor is a professional, they'll tell landlord what they need to do in terms of forms, etc. Let the landlord make the rookie mistake of not knowing the regulations, and when he says he's sold the place and needs you out in a month, tell him "nope". Point him to the form. He'll shit bricks, because he *can't* kick you out until after the buyer takes possession, which means he can't live up to the terms of his sale contract. Which costs $$$$ to the buyer, or which costs $$$$ to you to get you out early. Get him to pay you out for the free month that you're not getting, and pay for your moving costs, and an extra amount to compensate you for the hassle of hunting for your next place ($100/hr to troll Craigslist for rentals, and drive to viewings of rental places until you find a nice rental at a good price). Whatever you want. Know, though, that if your price is too high, the landlord might go back to the buyer and ask how much it'll cost to move possession back by a month.
Then when you're ready to move out, if the landlord starts pointing out BS (or normal wear & tear) as abuse, for which he wants to keep your damage deposit, disagree, take photos, don't sign the move-out inspection report (or indicate clearly that you disagree). Now the landlord has 15 days to either open a dispute with the RTO, or refund your damage deposit in full. If he fails to do that, he now owes you double your damage deposit, and you get to be the one filing a dispute with the RTO.
Good luck!
January 25th, 2012 at 5:49 am
to "N"
If you are one a month-to-month tenancy you can be evicted with 30 days notice for pretty well any reason although, with the house being sold, you will have to be given 60 days (2 months) notice, the second month either to be paid in full by the home-owner or you can stay in the house with the second month rent free. The Renters' Act is available on-line and is written in plain English, no crazy legalese.
January 25th, 2012 at 5:54 am
@M-: Yeah, you can pretty much bet that a landlord in the middle of a real estate transaction is going to forget rules around damage deposits.
If he's a jerk, don't remind him, just wait until the 15 days are up and file with the RTO. Even if he does file in time, he has no claim without opening and closing inspection reports.
January 25th, 2012 at 5:54 am
@DEFAULT NAME:
"Edmonton is the most affortable of the six largest Canadian cities. "
Pretty much a tie with Ottawa really. Similar prices (see UBC Sauder link) and incomes.
The interesting thing about Ottawa is that it's the only major metro which spans two provinces. The Quebec side has lower RE prices, higher income taxes, and much better social benefits for kids. Add it up and a lower to middle income family is better off buying (or renting) on that side, and there's a growing number of Anglos who do.
January 25th, 2012 at 5:55 am
@Balboa: After your first message, I had a doubt, but after this one, I no longer have one. You're full of shit.
January 25th, 2012 at 6:03 am
Makaya "You’re full of shit."
you a fuck..g moron. I know personally a dozen families that cashed out from RE and moved to Florida. They are thousands of Canadians.
January 25th, 2012 at 6:12 am
@patriotz:
Where did I say I thought it was a good thing? Disengage your auto-oppose.
January 25th, 2012 at 6:28 am
@patriotz: The US is done in due to their housing bubble. It had ballooned their debts now at 15.5 trillion and counting. Perhaps this is an omen to what is about to hit Canada.
January 25th, 2012 at 6:41 am
Still no sign of HAM, but the relentless, desperate pumping continues.
Check out this bit of douchebaggery.
http://www.mikestewart.ca/chinese-new-year-2012-a…
Seriously, Hu Yu Fulin?
January 25th, 2012 at 6:43 am
"First off, the writing is atrocious. Don’t they even have an editor read these advertorials before they’re printed? Second, there are lots of statements presented as fact that have absolutely nothing to back them up:"
On the bright side, we finally figured out Dave's day-job.
January 25th, 2012 at 6:50 am
My Asian friend says the Vancouver RE market is one big scam. His father is a realtor who caters to HAM. He says there are many instances where two parties (usually foreigners) will trade a property back and forth a few times over the course of a few years until an unsuspecting 3rd party (also usually foreign) takes it off there hands.
Not sure if this is true but if it is….this city is screwed.
Has anyone else heard of this before?
January 25th, 2012 at 7:01 am
@Best place on meth: Doesn't he realize the only people who watch his stupid videos are bears
January 25th, 2012 at 7:01 am
@Sparky604: This is what was happening in California during their run-up in prices in 2005. It's not that difficult to massage a market that is extremely illiquid and for which one sale (comp) can have such importance.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:03 am
@Sparky604:
"He says there are many instances where two parties (usually foreigners) will trade a property back and forth a few times over the course of a few years "
What would be the point of this? Because they like paying property transfer tax?
January 25th, 2012 at 7:06 am
MSM touting Year of the Dragon as the luckiest year, the year to do something big (marry, have kids, buy RE).
However next year is the year of the Snake. Year of the Dotcom Bust, S&L crisis, WW II and mother of all bad luck, The Great Depression. Roar dragon roar but watch your ass.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:18 am
As if Vancouver wasn't enough of a shallow, insecure attention whore – we're now the home of the $100 hot dog.
Why? Because the most expensive hot dog was in New York at $69 but because this city is all marketing an zero substance some dumbass felt the need to one-up them.
http://ca.shine.yahoo.com/vancouver-eatery-says-1…
Naturally, there has not been a single sale of this piece of shit to date.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:27 am
RE: The Point Grey house – I would rather save over 22 million and live on the beach in Oahu.
http://www.hawaiilife.com/mls/1113580/
January 25th, 2012 at 7:32 am
@Best place on meth: Its call free advertising and promo. Just like Cam the No-Good and his helicopter ride last year. Speaking of Cam the No-Good, I wonder what he have cooked up for us this spring.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:37 am
@RaggedyRenter:
Every year is a lucky year, a year to do something big, and a year where many changes will take place with lots of opportunities.
I read horoscopes when I was 10. I was amazed by how uncannily accurate they seemed to be.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:39 am
@N
I think your landlord has been pretty fair keeping you informed so far in advance. But if you really want to hit the exiting-student market, why not plan to move at the end of April as all the post secondary students get out?
Keep up the good work Balboa. I'm sure with you as an ambassador for us the canadians are as popular in florida as the ham are in vancouver.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:46 am
Cambie Corridor: Custom-built in 2010 and already being sold for redevelopment. Did anyone ever live in it? Did this house ever have a chance to be a home?
http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=259143033
January 25th, 2012 at 8:00 am
Something is messed up with the REBGV stats today. Seems like they posted a bunch of today's transactions to yesterday. So – To get the correct daily totals, PaulB will need to do 2 days worth and then subtract yesterday's reported amounts. WFT happened here? Otherwise we're looking at something like 30 transactions. The actuals for today look a lot like yesterday after adjusting . . . For the week compared to last year however, we are looking at decreases in volume of 26% – similar to what we have been running most of the month. Listings for the week looking like about 10% over last year same week.
January 25th, 2012 at 8:04 am
all these vancouver realtors talking about CNY is really getting a bit ridiculous. How long does this "CNY" last? are we almost done yet?
January 25th, 2012 at 8:11 am
@Sparky604:
The NPR show "This American Life" did a podcast on the American housing bubble in which they describe a very similar scam in Florida. Basically, the pumpers just rode the market up by buying and selling the same houses back and forth, taking out ever-increasing mortgages and pocketing the "profit" each time.
And like all ponzi schemes, it eventually fell apart, with the bank eventually holding the bag on the defaulted mortgage (ever wonder where that 700 million dollar bailout went?).
We'll be hearing a lot more stories like this soon after the Canadian government announces the upcoming CMHC bailout.
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/ep…
January 25th, 2012 at 8:13 am
@Best place on meth:
"Naturally, there has not been a single sale of this piece of shit to date."
I don't know, if there is any city in the world right now where a $100 hot dog is likely to be bought, surely its Vancouver. Million dollar bungalow, hundred dollar hot dog — it fits.
January 25th, 2012 at 8:14 am
@Yalie:
ALL bubbles have this kind of trading – RE, dot-com, Beanie Babies, etc. This isn't news.
The real scam is simply the prices that people willingly pay but don't make sense. Everything else is details.
January 25th, 2012 at 8:24 am
@Patiently Waiting: This house is great because: "legal 2 Bdrm Bsmt w/2 full bathrooms "
Who in his right mind would buy a $3.6million property if he needs to rent out the basement to pay for the mortgage? This real estate market never fails to surprise me…
January 25th, 2012 at 8:29 am
@b5baxter, M-, local observer and Guy Similey:
Thanks. I appreciate you guys taking the time. And, yes, my landlady is one of the good ones. I have politely suggested that we be given until July, and she has now said that she would try and make that happen. I just want to have my facts straight if I need to make a stronger argument.
@Guy Smiley,
We are renting a whole house, so I want to wait until families with kids in school start moving, as that when most of the houses become free.
I actually think that this house is going to be a very hard sell. It was built for working class occupants in the 1920s and has the very small rooms that go with that. I could see someone buying it for 300 or 400K and being OK with it as is. But the sticker price is going to be 800 or 900K and people who are dropping that kind of money aren't going to want to live in little tiny rooms that you could never ever entertain in (there isn't even a dinning room). So, in this market, it's a tear down. But if there is any inventory at all to compete with, an East Van tear down is going to sit for a long time.
January 25th, 2012 at 8:29 am
@DEFAULT NAME:
Someone correct me if I am wrong – There are three, usually week-long, holidays in China that real estates agents here are usually pimping for. They are the Chinese New Year, the May labor day, and also the National day in October.
my guess is, given the lag between the actual purchase and the closing date, we won't see the actual "spike", if it even exist, until late Jan – Mid Feb?
January 25th, 2012 at 8:30 am
Guy Smiley Says:
"Keep up the good work Balboa. I’m sure with you as an ambassador for us the canadians are as popular in florida as the ham are in vancouver."
I am treated well from my jewish american friends.. we will be golfing tomorrow in Boca del Vista..
of course the americans are thankful..half of the seats at Lightening games are bought by canadiens..we keep them alive no matter how ugly they play
January 25th, 2012 at 8:38 am
@patriotz:
Although I agree that all buyers should share the blame for our bubble, I still contend that scammers like this deserve much more of the blame.
In the case of the Florida scam, there were apparently several properties involved, and they basically bought and sold enough houses to artificially raise the appraisal values for the other homes. This is how they effectively scammed the banks into lending higher and higher amounts – they had comps to justify the ridiculous mortgage valuations.
That's why I blame the HAMmers and scammers more than the rest of the buyers. The average joe out there just wants to buy a house, and doesn't know anything about price/rent or other metrics. The scammers, on the other hand, artificially inflate the prices that then sucker in the ignorant masses.
Yes you can say that "all buyers are equally to blame", but in my book the willfully corrupt are much worse than the willfully ignorant.
January 25th, 2012 at 9:03 am
"Cambie Corridor: Custom-built in 2010 and already being sold for redevelopment. Did anyone ever live in it? Did this house ever have a chance to be a home?
http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=259143033&q…
I know this one pretty well. Pretty far from Cambie, so I do not think it will be put down.
No one ever lived there. Was bought when lots were in the $500,000. I have seen a lot of traffic around this house, people coming in an out, even an old couple from central Europe who did not speak English had the keys and did not even know how to take the bus in Vancouver… But no sign of people actually living in the house. This is a crappy spot, noisy and smelly. Besides, there are 4 other houses for sale next to this one…
On 41st, facing Oakrige Mall parking lot, there are 4 houses in row, just sold, that look in a good shape. Putting them down is an insult to sustainability. Ahhhh, the hypocrisy of politicians! They talk green and they act $$$$$.
January 25th, 2012 at 9:09 am
So let me see if I have this straight……
These savvy tycoons make decisions, and price assets based on Astrology, The Year of The Dragon, Feng Shui, and the distance to cemeteries and the like?
Holy Toledo, these guys know what they are doing, and with the help of highly trained people in Realtorpumpology, what can go wrong.
January 25th, 2012 at 9:10 am
@Yalie:
"The average joe out there just wants to buy a house, and doesn’t know anything about price/rent or other metrics."
But he does know that Vancouver has experienced a massive runup in price without any significant increase in wages or rents, just like the US had prior to its own bust.
What more does anyone need to know? That kind of wilful ignorance and arrogance is far more dangerous than any group of small-time scammers.
January 25th, 2012 at 9:16 am
@jumpin in:
I know that tearing down perfectly good houses looks bad, but for the government to spend billions of dollars putting rapid transit under Cambie and then let the areas near the stations remain SFH would be simply absurd. That kind of waste of capital would dwarf by far the value of the houses to be torn down.
Take a look at an aerial photo of Toronto. That's what you get when you have underground rapid transit. There is no sensible alternative.
January 25th, 2012 at 9:25 am
http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/01/vancouvers-d…
January 25th, 2012 at 9:28 am
#146,
so you know too much, you could not survive here and had to leave all the way to the east?
January 25th, 2012 at 9:31 am
@Raz:
>>>we won’t see the actual “spike”, if it even exist, until late Jan – Mid Feb?<<<
There is no CNY spike, it doesn't exist.
Last year sales took off shortly after the announcement of new mortgage rules that were coming and people had 2 months to buy before they took effect.
Naturally, the shitbags who sell real estate in this city are attempting to attribute that spike to CNY buying.
They are either stupid or lying.
January 25th, 2012 at 9:33 am
@patriotz:
I more or less agree, but I suppose I'm distinguishing between evilness and volume. The ignorant masses are only worse simply because there are so many more of them, so their overall influence is greater. But pound-for-pound, the average pumper/scammer deserves to be placed in a much deeper and darker level of hell than joe sixpack, imho.
January 25th, 2012 at 9:34 am
New Listings – 211
Back On Market Listings – 5
Price Changes – 60
Sold Listings – 61
*Attached & Detached – Date: 01/25/2012 Time: 17:20 Pacific YatterMatters.com: Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.
where's all the CNY sales!?
January 25th, 2012 at 9:42 am
hey VMD, this link looks like it belongs on some of those chinese websites/threads
http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/01/vancouvers-d…
January 25th, 2012 at 9:49 am
@Yalie:
But the real point is that a group of people selling houses (or anything else) back and forth to each other can't drive up the market price anyway. The market price is determined by what the high bidder is willing and able to pay at time of sale. I doubt that 1 buyer in 10 even knows anything about the prior sales history of a property. And if they went to the trouble to look at it, don't you think a property being bought and sold at at a rapid pace by the same people would signal to anyone with any sense that those sale prices were not indicative of the general market?
I repeat – market prices are driven by the general cohort of buyers, not scammers playing games.
January 25th, 2012 at 10:12 am
Mad:
Let's hope this trend continues and that this is the year the shit hits the fan.
Even with the Belmont sale, I think this month prints ugly.
Bring it on. Let this market crash hard and fast.
January 25th, 2012 at 10:19 am
http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/01/vancouvers-d…
Ummmm…dumb de dumb de McLovin….
If this isn't bearish, then what is?
This market could free fall – NOW.
You heard it here first.
RTS
January 25th, 2012 at 10:53 am
@Yalie: You're just looking for scapegoats.
January 25th, 2012 at 10:57 am
@DEFAULT NAME:
Indeed, this graph will be going to 2 Chinese forums when I get home :）
Larry's Total Inventory seems like a lump sum of 3 boards, I guess it's REBGV + FVREB + OMREB ?
January 25th, 2012 at 11:19 am
@MadasHell: "where’s all the CNY sales!?"
Sales are reported after subjects removed (I think), so most of the sales that are reported are from the last 1-3 weeks. If there is a spike due to CNY it will register in early February.
And yes sales in February will be higher than January. This year, however, it looks like sales need to be significantly higher to keep pace with inventory or prices will be on the weak side. That said I still think we'll be testing new highs for the benchmark this year.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:43 am
And another one!
Canadian home prices dip for first time since fall, 2010
With the recent flood of bad RE news, I would be surprised if people's perception doesn't change radically (i.e. prices don't always go up)
January 25th, 2012 at 11:47 am
Jesse:
You must be SMOKING CRACK COCAINE.
You are stoned out of your gourd.
There will be no new price peaks for at least fifteen years.
Put down the bong and study some history, you dimwit.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:50 am
@Devore:
I am? I'm basically saying a pumper/scammer is a bigger lowlife than your typical "average dimwitted buyer". I know many of these koolaid drinkers and other than being brain-dead when it comes to real estate they're basically good people. And if you actually read my post, you'd see that I fully acknowledge they're mostly to blame for price increases. Intentional scammers, on the other hand, are not only contributing to the bubble (however minor their overall influence) but they're also knowingly out to fuck over others for their own gain, which makes them bigger dickheads. How is that scapegoating?
January 25th, 2012 at 11:59 am
A friend of mine who owns 6 investment condos has had two unrented for a few months. One will be rented Feb 1st, the other (hopefully) March 1st.
With some special assessments and a few periods of lost rent, he's now up to his eyeballs in credit card debt. He's going to list two of the six properties and when we ran the comps, based on recent sales, he's going to buy a big bar of soap.
For the massive bath he's going to take.
Better now, before it turns into a flood, this market is slowly going to get completely fucking jacked.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Tuesday sales stats came in at 435 new listings, 85 price changes and 189 sales.
Sell/list was 43.45%.
Notice that price changes have dropped considerably in relation to sales. In a market with high sell/lists but lots of price changes it seems clear that demand is not high enough to take care of inferior listings, so price changes result; the cause of the high sell/list is usually a low number of new listings.
Right now we’re seeing a pick up in sales, few price changes, but still lots of new listings. Inventory should pick up, but don’t look for big price drops.
the MonkeyMan (Chimpman) is bullish again.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Sorry for the late update. Was skiing with the family up Grouse. Tons of snow falling up there!
New Listings 218
Price Changes 63
Sold Listings 62
TI:13168
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
January 25th, 2012 at 12:10 pm
@Yalie: "In the case of the Florida scam, there were apparently several properties involved, and they basically bought and sold enough houses to artificially raise the appraisal values for the other homes."
Is it scam? I'm not sure. If someone wants to buy and sell houses to each other why can't they? Just because the banks and purchasers are stupid enough to take only past sale values of other properties to determine what a house is worth then they get what they deserve. For example what if the banks and purchasers used rental value as a factor like everyone around here? Common sense to me.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Thanks PaulB
Hope you guys had a blast up there!
I was working yet another 13 hour day. Glad you have achieved some balance in life, and hope you have a terrific year ahead!!!!
Love your dailies, thanks again.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:15 pm
We could see record listings by May.
You read it HERE FirsT!
January 25th, 2012 at 12:16 pm
RippedtoShit,
When are you going to stop playing "good cop, bad cop"? It is truly getting "tiresome".
Oh, and BTW, nobody here gives a rat's ass what Chipman has to say…about ANYTHING.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
@RippedtoShit: I still think prices are going to increase. That is not a bullish call. If prices are going to crash it's going to take several years so get comfortable and grab a cold one.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Hi Boom,
Good to hear from you.
Thanks for the comments. I just like to play with people's emotions, especially that loser McLosin.
Anyways, I think this is the big one, we could see year over year declines in a couple of months or so. They what will the great unwashed go on about?
Watch them turn to the stock market, after all these years (once it's up twenty points from here). Dumb is what dumb does.
I guess I'm just bloody impatient, all this waiting…I'm saving loads and loads and I'm betting big on commodities/gold…I did what I said last summer/fall, every decline I bought more and more and more…let's see what happens.
That said, this I want the bloody fools who kept telling me RE RE RE RE to eat their fucking words. I don't hate them or anything, I just want basic math skills to trump dumb lemming behaviour.
How are you doing? Hope your having a great year thus far. All the best.
RJ
January 25th, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Jessie, I agree….it will take many many years
that said, i'm hopeful that the peak is BEHIND US now….we are over one hundred large below the peak, so I don't see that being surpassed. let's see what happens.
as for a cold one, thanks, I think I will!
cheers.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:26 pm
Jan-2012
Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 17
Weekends / holidays 8
Days missing 0
Days remaining 4
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 90
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 268
SALES
Sales so far 1169
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 360
Projected month end total 1529 +/- 83
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 4802
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1071
Projected month end total 5873 +/- 181
Sell-list so far 24.3%
Projected month-end sell-list 26.0%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of Jan 25, 2012 13168
MoI at this sales pace 8.61
January 25th, 2012 at 12:29 pm
http://www.saintjosephsellshomes.com/
I am not making this up
Yes, it's true folks, if the Year of The Dragon, doesn't do it, you can bring in some real heavy duty holy guns to help you push real estate.
"St Joseph for Realtors pay only $2.95 ea with order for 20 @$59.80"
http://www.goodfortuneonline.net/promo.html
January 25th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Is that "Reggie" guy that posts over on Larry's blog for real? or is he just playing with Larry all the time? I can't figure out if he's always just being super sarcastic or if he's saying it the way he feels.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:57 pm
@jesse:
I suppose Spring 2012 prices can increase relative to Dec 2011, but I think chances are slim that we'll see the June 2011 all-time-peak beaten this year (or next 3 years..).
However, I don't mind price jumping this spring. It may actually force Flaherty's hand to deliver another round of mortgage rule tightening.
Oh yeah, entry to the VCI 2012 RE Price Prediction Contest ends in 6 days! Check out the forums for contest rules and current contestant predictions : )
January 25th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Happy Robbie Burns Day everyone!
For the next several days, planeloads of drunken but very savvy Scottish investors will be in town to drink scotch, eat bagged up animal innards, chase women, curse like Englishmen and of course snap up loads of real estate.
Local realtors are standing by to assist them.
Please be careful out there and watch out for the puke.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:16 pm
@RippedtoShit:
Alright RJ, what did you do with the condo? (And the girlfriend). 13-hour days don't bode well. Something tells me you're a singleton. ?
January 25th, 2012 at 1:17 pm
@DEFAULT NAME:
What makes it a scam is the fact that they artificially inflated prices to get increasingly large loans that they had no intention of ever paying back. Many cases involved kickbacks to mortgage appraisers and loan officers at banks who approved falsely inflated valuations, among other tricks. After the bubble, much of that money ended up in off-shore banks or otherwise just disappeared… leaving the government to pick up the tab when the loans defaulted and the perpetrators skipped the country.
And, yes, the banks should have used common-sense valuations, but due to perverse incentive structures that rewarded employess whenever they made a loan, they didn't care. Many of those bad loans were packages off and sold as MBSs anyway, all given AAA ratings by corrupt ratings agencies.
Basically, the US housing boom saw unprecedented corruption running right down the line, from small-time buyers engaged in mortgage fraud all the way to the big Wall Street banks, and everything in between. And my main point of all of this is to suggest that we'll likely see similar corruption stories when our own bubble finally bursts.
In fact, I'll be amazed if we don't hear about our own locally-grown fake buyers, fraudulent loan applications, and kickbacks to loan officers, etc when our ponzi prices inevitably crash. How many of those empty west side multi-million dollar houses were paid for with CMHC-backed mortgages? Yes, many of them were bought with cash, but I'm equally certain a lot were financed with zero-down mortgages by someone who can easily skip the country with their gains and stick the taxpayer with the bill when the tide finally runs out.
And I'd be willing to bet they will do exactly that.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:20 pm
@VMD: I already registered my predictions, prices up by June! Marginal prices are marginal
Thanks for organising the entertainment!
January 25th, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Default Name @175
Regarding Reggie postings on Larry's site…I was wondering the same thing myself. I'd like to think he's doing it tongue-in-cheek. If he isn't…wow….he takes RE cheerleading to a new level and he needs professional help.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
@VHB: How does the MOI get calculated at 8.61? Dividing inventory of 13168 by sales of 1169 = 11.26 Am I missing something? Is it somehow prorated because the month is not yet complete?
January 25th, 2012 at 1:35 pm
ohmylord…a $20mill house with a laneway house…
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…
January 25th, 2012 at 1:57 pm
@Fenchie:
Projected month end total 1529 +/- 83
you have divide the total inventory by this number
January 25th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
@DEFAULT NAME: "ohmylord…a $20mill house with a laneway house…"
Back in the day it was called a guest house. A nice perk as long as you don't have to give up the garage to get it.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:37 pm
@VMD: "Oh yeah, entry to the VCI 2012 RE Price Prediction Contest ends in 6 days!"
I predict an 8% year over year gain by May.
January 25th, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Posted to Garth's site, BoC historical bank rate:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/201…
Note this is the upper end of their target. You can really see what did it in 2004 and 2005.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:12 pm
@DEFAULT NAME:
It may be worth noting that in 2011 it took a month (Jan 7-Feb 4) to add 3k inventory.
In 2012 it only took just over 2 weeks (Jan 6-Jan 20)
http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/01/vancouvers-d…
January 26th, 2012 at 1:47 am
@fixie guy: Well, if you really cared about neighborhood, social norms, and all the other stuff that was listed, then as a condition of sale, you can always demand info like – are the people new immigrants, are they planning to live and get involved in the local neighborhood, how did they made the money, etc, etc.
Yes, it's government responsibility to screen out the bad apples, criminal proceeds, etc. However, I believe lots of posters on this board believe in personal responsibility, especially when it comes to your own personal finance. So if personal resonsiblity applies for purchasing homes, why wouldn't it apply to selling homes and safe guarding basic social fabric as well?
I'm not saying you have to do a thorough background check, just some basic info about the buyer. If you feel the buyer is sketchy, eg) oh I'm a carpenter from Russia but I'm buying this $2M house, alarm bells should be going off. Or oh I'm this business man in China but no I wouldn't tell you what business I'm doing.
Personality responsbility.
PS – there is a Chinese saying that roughly translates into "When the country is in trouble, everyone has responsibility to help". So if you think these newcomers Chinese buyers is ruining Vancouver then every home seller has responsibility to not sell to these people and contribute to making the situation worse.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:10 am
@patriotz: Yes but the complaint is about new Chinese buyers ruining the Canadian society, social norms, etc, etc, etc. So in that case, if all sellers cared about is $$$$ and don't care about the buyers and what they do, then are we only blaming buyers for the problems and not the sellers who put $$$ above all else and sold to these people?
If you put $$ above all else then don't complain when the neighborhoods get ruined because why should buyer do what you want them to do? They pay for the place, they live here now, and they can do whatever they want as long as it's legal. So if they don't feel like saying hello to you, host block parties, give out candies, etc then that's their choice. I don't see why they should get 100% of the blame while the sellers who allowed them in for big wad of cash gets no blame.
January 26th, 2012 at 7:05 am
@DEFAULT NAME: …ohmylord…a $20mill house with a laneway house…
http://www.realtor.ca/property…..1719136260...
And a 'herb' garden! Maybe a hydroponic herb garden with a security guard staying in the laneway house.
January 27th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
[...] “Recently had lunch with a friend of mine. During our lunch he told me that he was going to quit his job to become a realtor. Was quite surprised as he was just promoted and is doing very well. I launched into the usually bear arguments: debt-to-income, easy lending standards (CMHC), risk of further restrictions regarding mortgages, housing starts and that most economists are waving red flags regarding Canada’s RE market. He seemed surprised by my comments and said that he hadn’t heard any of this before and wouldn’t even begin to know where to look for that kind of information. We’ve talked about RE before and as I pointed out to him that I’m still wrong but have been right about every other housing bust I called, from the U.S. to Ireland to Spain — Australia’s right around the corner, and that at some point I’ll be right about Canada’s as well. In any event, I didn’t dissuade him. He is a great salesman and will undoubtedly have success regardless of getting in at the top of the market, taking on tonnes of listings and having to deal with future sellers that will refuse to lower prices because their house is worth more. I wished him luck and told him to make sure that he had plenty of cash set aside to grow his business.” – Manna from heaven at vancouvercondo.info 25 Jan 2012 11:09am [...]
January 27th, 2012 at 4:39 pm
[...] “Recently had lunch with a friend of mine. During our lunch he told me that he was going to quit his job to become a realtor. Was quite surprised as he was just promoted and is doing very well. I launched into the usually bear arguments: debt-to-income, easy lending standards (CMHC), risk of further restrictions regarding mortgages, housing starts and that most economists are waving red flags regarding Canada’s RE market. He seemed surprised by my comments and said that he hadn’t heard any of this before and wouldn’t even begin to know where to look for that kind of information. We’ve talked about RE before and as I pointed out to him that I’m still wrong but have been right about every other housing bust I called, from the U.S. to Ireland to Spain — Australia’s right around the corner, and that at some point I’ll be right about Canada’s as well. In any event, I didn’t dissuade him. He is a great salesman and will undoubtedly have success regardless of getting in at the top of the market, taking on tonnes of listings and having to deal with future sellers that will refuse to lower prices because their house is worth more. I wished him luck and told him to make sure that he had plenty of cash set aside to grow his business.” – Manna from heaven at vancouvercondo.info 25 Jan 2012 11:09am [...]
January 27th, 2012 at 10:51 pm
[...] “Recently had lunch with a friend of mine. During our lunch he told me that he was going to quit his job to become a realtor. Was quite surprised as he was just promoted and is doing very well. I launched into the usually bear arguments: debt-to-income, easy lending standards (CMHC), risk of further restrictions regarding mortgages, housing starts and that most economists are waving red flags regarding Canada’s RE market. He seemed surprised by my comments and said that he hadn’t heard any of this before and wouldn’t even begin to know where to look for that kind of information. We’ve talked about RE before and as I pointed out to him that I’m still wrong but have been right about every other housing bust I called, from the U.S. to Ireland to Spain — Australia’s right around the corner, and that at some point I’ll be right about Canada’s as well. In any event, I didn’t dissuade him. He is a great salesman and will undoubtedly have success regardless of getting in at the top of the market, taking on tonnes of listings and having to deal with future sellers that will refuse to lower prices because their house is worth more. I wished him luck and told him to make sure that he had plenty of cash set aside to grow his business.” – Manna from heaven at vancouvercondo.info 25 Jan 2012 11:09am [...]