Racist marketing and fact-free media

Look at this garbage. It’s an article submitted by “The BC Real Estate Convention” and printed as if it’s actually news in the Vancouver Sun. First off, the writing is atrocious. Don’t they even have an editor read these advertorials before they’re printed? Second, there are lots of statements presented as fact that have absolutely nothing to back them up:

Experts claim that the Chinese Mainland buyers and investors will continue to seek for overseas investment opportunities, in Vancouver.

Which ‘experts’ are these? Oh never mind, we’ll just take your word for it then.

As it is more cost efficient to purchase a property rather than renting, and considering the long term returns of the investment, purchasing properties in Vancouver become high on demand.

Yeah, somebody is ‘high on demand’ if they really believe that current prices in Vancouver make buying ‘more cost efficient’ than renting. There are many many markets around the world where buying is ‘more cost efficient’ than renting, Vancouver ain’t one of them.

However, as much as Feng shui is a well respected practice by many Chinese immigrants and potential home buyers and investors, there are always those “intelligent” ones that seek to obtain the optimal economic value from their investment in Vancouver’s real estate.

Wow. I don’t even know how to respond to that.

If you go to the The BC Real Estate Convention web site you’ll see that this trade show is sponsored by The Vancouver Sun and Province.

Then there’s this piece over at 24 hours:

Metro Vancouver will receive an influx of businessmen from mainland Chinese this week, intent on spending their two-week Lunar New Year holiday with family, as well as scooping up significant amounts of real estate.

Julia Rowell, sales manager at downtown Vancouver’s Maddox development, said this phenomenon has been going on for over 25 years, but 2012 looks to be especially busy.

Yeah? I think TPFKAA says it best:

HAHAHAHAHA! That’s absolutely hilarious!!

So in 1987, (a full five years before Deng Xiaoping’s reforms that enabled creation of individual fortunes) HAM from mainland China was increasing sales just after CNY.

/facepalm.

The hype seems to be working on the listings side. This year started off with the second highest number of listings in the last ten years and has grown at a faster rate than any of those years, especially on the west side:

I’m sure those sellers are hoping this hype pays off, and maybe it will, but then again maybe our market isn’t driven solely by wealthy offshore buyers. Most local first time buyers aren’t in the market for multimillion dollar homes anyways, so how would this even affect them?

Blaming ‘Chinese buyers’ for out of control prices is simplistic and racist. This city is nearly half asian so of course ‘Chinese buyers’ have an impact, but what about easy credit, low rates, CMHC pumping and local speculators?

Just for comparison, the city of Monterey Park in California has the highest percentage population of Chinese Americans of any US municipality. Here’s what home values there look like over the last few years:

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[…] “Recently had lunch with a friend of mine. During our lunch he told me that he was going to quit his job to become a realtor. Was quite surprised as he was just promoted and is doing very well. I launched into the usually bear arguments: debt-to-income, easy lending standards (CMHC), risk of further restrictions regarding mortgages, housing starts and that most economists are waving red flags regarding Canada’s RE market. He seemed surprised by my comments and said that he hadn’t heard any of this before and wouldn’t even begin to know where to look for that kind of information. We’ve talked about RE before and as I pointed out to him that I’m still wrong but have been right about every other housing bust I called, from the U.S. to Ireland to Spain — Australia’s right around… Read more »

trackback

[…] “Recently had lunch with a friend of mine. During our lunch he told me that he was going to quit his job to become a realtor. Was quite surprised as he was just promoted and is doing very well. I launched into the usually bear arguments: debt-to-income, easy lending standards (CMHC), risk of further restrictions regarding mortgages, housing starts and that most economists are waving red flags regarding Canada’s RE market. He seemed surprised by my comments and said that he hadn’t heard any of this before and wouldn’t even begin to know where to look for that kind of information. We’ve talked about RE before and as I pointed out to him that I’m still wrong but have been right about every other housing bust I called, from the U.S. to Ireland to Spain — Australia’s right around… Read more »

trackback

[…] “Recently had lunch with a friend of mine. During our lunch he told me that he was going to quit his job to become a realtor. Was quite surprised as he was just promoted and is doing very well. I launched into the usually bear arguments: debt-to-income, easy lending standards (CMHC), risk of further restrictions regarding mortgages, housing starts and that most economists are waving red flags regarding Canada’s RE market. He seemed surprised by my comments and said that he hadn’t heard any of this before and wouldn’t even begin to know where to look for that kind of information. We’ve talked about RE before and as I pointed out to him that I’m still wrong but have been right about every other housing bust I called, from the U.S. to Ireland to Spain — Australia’s right around… Read more »

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@DEFAULT NAME: …ohmylord…a $20mill house with a laneway house…

http://www.realtor.ca/property…..1719136260...

And a 'herb' garden! Maybe a hydroponic herb garden with a security guard staying in the laneway house.

space889
space889
8 years ago

@patriotz: Yes but the complaint is about new Chinese buyers ruining the Canadian society, social norms, etc, etc, etc. So in that case, if all sellers cared about is $$$$ and don't care about the buyers and what they do, then are we only blaming buyers for the problems and not the sellers who put $$$ above all else and sold to these people? If you put $$ above all else then don't complain when the neighborhoods get ruined because why should buyer do what you want them to do? They pay for the place, they live here now, and they can do whatever they want as long as it's legal. So if they don't feel like saying hello to you, host block parties, give out candies, etc then that's their choice. I don't see why they should get 100%… Read more »

space889
space889
8 years ago

@fixie guy: Well, if you really cared about neighborhood, social norms, and all the other stuff that was listed, then as a condition of sale, you can always demand info like – are the people new immigrants, are they planning to live and get involved in the local neighborhood, how did they made the money, etc, etc. Yes, it's government responsibility to screen out the bad apples, criminal proceeds, etc. However, I believe lots of posters on this board believe in personal responsibility, especially when it comes to your own personal finance. So if personal resonsiblity applies for purchasing homes, why wouldn't it apply to selling homes and safe guarding basic social fabric as well? I'm not saying you have to do a thorough background check, just some basic info about the buyer. If you feel the buyer is sketchy,… Read more »

VMD
VMD
8 years ago

@DEFAULT NAME:

It may be worth noting that in 2011 it took a month (Jan 7-Feb 4) to add 3k inventory.

In 2012 it only took just over 2 weeks (Jan 6-Jan 20)
http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/01/vancouvers-d

rp1
rp1
8 years ago

Posted to Garth's site, BoC historical bank rate:

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/201

Note this is the upper end of their target. You can really see what did it in 2004 and 2005.

rp1
rp1
8 years ago

@VMD: "Oh yeah, entry to the VCI 2012 RE Price Prediction Contest ends in 6 days!"

I predict an 8% year over year gain by May.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@DEFAULT NAME: "ohmylord…a $20mill house with a laneway house…"

Back in the day it was called a guest house. A nice perk as long as you don't have to give up the garage to get it.

frank
frank
8 years ago

@Fenchie:

Projected month end total 1529 +/- 83

you have divide the total inventory by this number

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

ohmylord…a $20mill house with a laneway house…

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper

Fenchie
Fenchie
8 years ago

@VHB: How does the MOI get calculated at 8.61? Dividing inventory of 13168 by sales of 1169 = 11.26 Am I missing something? Is it somehow prorated because the month is not yet complete?

Re-diculous
Re-diculous
8 years ago

Default Name @175

Regarding Reggie postings on Larry's site…I was wondering the same thing myself. I'd like to think he's doing it tongue-in-cheek. If he isn't…wow….he takes RE cheerleading to a new level and he needs professional help.

jesse
8 years ago

@VMD: I already registered my predictions, prices up by June! Marginal prices are marginal 🙂

Thanks for organising the entertainment!

Yalie
Yalie
8 years ago

@DEFAULT NAME: Is it scam? I’m not sure. If someone wants to buy and sell houses to each other why can’t they? Just because the banks and purchasers are stupid enough to take only past sale values of other properties to determine what a house is worth then they get what they deserve. For example what if the banks and purchasers used rental value as a factor like everyone around here? Common sense to me. What makes it a scam is the fact that they artificially inflated prices to get increasingly large loans that they had no intention of ever paying back. Many cases involved kickbacks to mortgage appraisers and loan officers at banks who approved falsely inflated valuations, among other tricks. After the bubble, much of that money ended up in off-shore banks or otherwise just disappeared… leaving the… Read more »

mac
mac
8 years ago

@RippedtoShit:

Alright RJ, what did you do with the condo? (And the girlfriend). 13-hour days don't bode well. Something tells me you're a singleton. ?

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
8 years ago

Happy Robbie Burns Day everyone!

For the next several days, planeloads of drunken but very savvy Scottish investors will be in town to drink scotch, eat bagged up animal innards, chase women, curse like Englishmen and of course snap up loads of real estate.

Local realtors are standing by to assist them.

Please be careful out there and watch out for the puke.

VMD
VMD
8 years ago

@jesse:

I suppose Spring 2012 prices can increase relative to Dec 2011, but I think chances are slim that we'll see the June 2011 all-time-peak beaten this year (or next 3 years..).

However, I don't mind price jumping this spring. It may actually force Flaherty's hand to deliver another round of mortgage rule tightening.

Oh yeah, entry to the VCI 2012 RE Price Prediction Contest ends in 6 days! Check out the forums for contest rules and current contestant predictions : )

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

Is that "Reggie" guy that posts over on Larry's blog for real? or is he just playing with Larry all the time? I can't figure out if he's always just being super sarcastic or if he's saying it the way he feels.

Keeping An Eye On Th
Keeping An Eye On Th
8 years ago

http://www.saintjosephsellshomes.com/

I am not making this up

Yes, it's true folks, if the Year of The Dragon, doesn't do it, you can bring in some real heavy duty holy guns to help you push real estate.

"St Joseph for Realtors pay only $2.95 ea with order for 20 @$59.80"

http://www.goodfortuneonline.net/promo.html

VHB
VHB
8 years ago

Jan-2012

Total days 21

Days elapsed so far 17

Weekends / holidays 8

Days missing 0

Days remaining 4

7 Day Moving Average: Sales 90

7 Day Moving Average: Listings 268

SALES

Sales so far 1169

Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 360

Projected month end total 1529 +/- 83

NEW LISTINGS

Listings so far 4802

Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1071

Projected month end total 5873 +/- 181

Sell-list so far 24.3%

Projected month-end sell-list 26.0%

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

Inventory as of Jan 25, 2012 13168

MoI at this sales pace 8.61

RippedtoShit
RippedtoShit
8 years ago

Jessie, I agree….it will take many many years

that said, i'm hopeful that the peak is BEHIND US now….we are over one hundred large below the peak, so I don't see that being surpassed. let's see what happens.

as for a cold one, thanks, I think I will!

cheers.

RippedtoShit
RippedtoShit
8 years ago

Hi Boom, Good to hear from you. Thanks for the comments. I just like to play with people's emotions, especially that loser McLosin. Anyways, I think this is the big one, we could see year over year declines in a couple of months or so. They what will the great unwashed go on about? Watch them turn to the stock market, after all these years (once it's up twenty points from here). Dumb is what dumb does. I guess I'm just bloody impatient, all this waiting…I'm saving loads and loads and I'm betting big on commodities/gold…I did what I said last summer/fall, every decline I bought more and more and more…let's see what happens. That said, this I want the bloody fools who kept telling me RE RE RE RE to eat their fucking words. I don't hate them or… Read more »

jesse
8 years ago

@RippedtoShit: I still think prices are going to increase. That is not a bullish call. If prices are going to crash it's going to take several years so get comfortable and grab a cold one.