CBC.ca/bc : “foreclosures” on the front page
But not only that: “skyrocket” is in the same sentence. Is the end nigh?
Home foreclosures are on the rise in B.C.’s Central Okanagan in recent months, but local real estate agents disagree about who might be losing their homes.
There are more than 170 court-ordered sale properties on the market in the Central Okanagan, more than 10 times more than three years ago.
Real estate agent Jason Neumann says according to his estimates, in the last 30 days alone 60 new foreclosures were put on the market, and he calls it a disturbing trend.
Neumann is worried the number of foreclosures will bring the overall market down, hurting anyone who wants to sell their home.
“What do you tell your sellers that are not in foreclosure that are now up against something they didn’t see coming? It’s one of those things where the bank is going to have to do what it’s got to do to get it sold.”
Looks like the media just noticed what’s happening in the Okanagan. Here’s the article.
This post was submitted by Mansur al-Hallaj.
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February 16th, 2012 at 6:23 am
@Best place on meth:
Did u quoted it from Epoch Time,a Chinese cult which is responsible numberous terriotist attack against Chinese citizens and foreign diplomats.
February 16th, 2012 at 1:21 am
@Extremely rich Van house owner.:
China's going down the shitter fast.
Real estate crash, debt bombs going off left, right and centre and now they're losing jobs as the US takes them back.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-plan-ins…
What's really funny about this is that our moronic PM is hitching our wagon to this totalitarian cesspool while giving the US the finger.
His timing is just awesome.
February 16th, 2012 at 1:21 am
By one measure, the average, Vancouver prices are already down YOY. I assume "the average" is the mean:
The number of houses sold in the Vancouver region through Multiple Listing Service was down 13.4 per cent in January from the same month last year, the industry group said Wednesday.
In addition, the average price of a Vancouver home declined slightly, from $762,562 in January 2011 to $752,380 this year — a difference of 1.3 per cent.
In the Fraser Valley, sales dipped by 3.1 per cent during the same time period. However, prices rose 6.4 per cent from an average of $441,544 last year to $469,635 in 2012.
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Property+sal…
February 16th, 2012 at 1:14 am
@extremely rich
Exactly my point, HAM is paying 100% cash for 20% of the volume at ridiculous levels and the caucasian riff raff you refer to is loading up on cmhc guaranteed mortgages and heloc's etc with no cash for 80% of the volume and thus that latter segment of the market is being targeted for scale back by regulators and mortgage lenders themselves. So when the volume declines in that segment it may actually look like average prices are going up due to steadier demand from HAM cash when in reality the bulk of the market is unravelling.
February 16th, 2012 at 12:58 am
@DEFAULT NAME:
U guys are jealous our success but the Sun will alway rise up from the East.Don't let your frustration destroy u.
February 16th, 2012 at 12:44 am
@Extremely rich Van house owner.:
"What is it relevant to Van where 80% of house buyers are wealthy or well-to-do middle class Chinese"
There is no such thing as 'well-to-do middle class Chinese' buying houses in Van. There are wealty corrupt dirtbags (currently buying in Van occassionally)…and pretty much the rest of the country (99%) don't have flushing toilets.
February 16th, 2012 at 12:42 am
@longorshort:
Come on guys don't use Caucasian mentality to analyze us;Our wealthy compatriots alway buys properties with cash;even those local Chinese citizens alway have substantial down payment usually 30 to 50 percent plus.We are a very prudent society.If it weren't Us and our bolived motherland support,this remote nothern country would end up like evil US.Even Harper,has repented his pass mischief to our motherland and pay a bestow to "Great China"
U guys should change your mindset to realize this century and coming centuries is a China one not US and others.
February 16th, 2012 at 12:20 am
the cows here are chewing the same grass every day.
February 16th, 2012 at 12:05 am
@patriotz: "They think they’re making a “tax free profit” every time they sell."
Even if one, two, three consecutive transactions are for losses they will be justified as profit, just compared to an earlier benchmark. Someone who bought 10 years ago can sell all the way down and still come up "net positive". It's all about emotional protection.
February 15th, 2012 at 11:48 pm
59 rp1 Says: "…The government could pay people to buy, or offer tax breaks to cover capital losses."
One RET booster claimed that the markets will surely be sustained because banks will start charge negative mortgage rates, paying clients to take their money. It was never made clear how they were to generate profits under the scheme; quantity?
February 15th, 2012 at 10:49 pm
@jesse:
They think they're making a "tax free profit" every time they sell.
Seriously, some people think this way.
February 15th, 2012 at 8:51 pm
@longorshort: It could be that a lot of the volume is simply lateral moves. I have been shocked how many times some people have bought and sold SFHs in the past 10 years with no discernable reason beyond being addicted to buying and selling.
We'll see!
February 15th, 2012 at 8:06 pm
We are spending a lot of time with our agents to ensure we are only taking on listings at the right price.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/housing-cools-as-sellers-hold-back/article2339028/
February 15th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
@Anonymouse #53
In my office, here in the UK, a colleague commented the other day that her house value had dropped £100k within the last year. Another colleague is buying an apartment in a manor house for £240k down from £515k in 2007. It sounds like things are definitely crashing outside of London (much like the crash outside of Vancouver). I imagine there's probably plenty of speculation happening in London because: "everyone wants to live here", "we have the Olympics", "never ending supply of Russians/Arabs", "Best city on earth", etc. So we'll see….
February 15th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Don't forget, boys and girls, we think of it as a spectacular, sudden "crash," yet the hot spots of the US housing bubble certainly didn't revert to sanity overnight. Foreclosures were already running rampant is some locales even while others remained rife with bogus media-fueled mania, speculative buyers out the ying-yang, and thoughts that "it's different here." Hell, it's *still* coming apart in most areas, a half-dozen years after it began.
February 15th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
@Extremelyrich
In SFH Van West, Richmond and W Van it may be 80% HAM, but reality is that good part of the value of transactions in the market is funded effectively by low equity deals for domestically born riff raff. And now they can't get financing so the trades in that segment of the market which has held down average prices has/will evaporate. Happy for someone with data to prove otherwise.
February 15th, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Love the quote from the article:
""What do you tell your sellers that are not in foreclosure that are now up against something they didn't see coming?"
Didn't see coming? It's not like they were blindsided and sucker punched. The writing was on the wall right in front of their faces. I suppose this same quote will be used when foreclosure rates hit an all time high in Vancouver.
February 15th, 2012 at 3:13 pm
@DEFAULT NAME:
"2007 a 5 year mortgage was as high as 7 percent maybe even a little higher if you didn’t negotiate"
You would have either had bad credit or been a fool if you got a 7% rate in 2007. 5% was easily available at that time. If the best you could do in 2007 was 7% then you would probably be at 5.5% today.
"Also if you had a mortgage 5 years ago you probably paid a lot less than current at least in the Vancouver area"
If you bought a new condo in 2007 you probably paid more than it would sell for today now it is 5 years old. I live in a place finished in 2008 which the owner bought in 2006 as a presale for 810K. The same unit unit just sold for 775K a floor above me a few months ago (my net rent is $1400 BTW – do the math on that to see how it covers a mortgage). The condo market in downtown Vancouver is softer now so I doubt they could even get that today.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:41 pm
I am not sure how've many refinanced in 2008/2009 but I considered it (mind you I had negotiated a much lower than the posted rates) and I would not of saved anything after the penalties.
I sure have kicked myself for locking in as the rates kept dropping
They only way I will do a long (4 or 5 year term) is if I can get the 2.99 percent the banks were offering till last week (actually they stopped on feb 13$
I will probably do one year closed as that seems to be the lowest rate of the closed I personally do not like the variable as I like to see my mortgage amount drop over time and the variable it's not certain if say the prime rate increases
Do not take my advice as you can see from my post I usually guess wrong on market or interest rate direction
I just got lucky as I bought 7 years ago and I only bought a home not an speculative investment (when I sell in 25 years when I retire the price may well be lower than what I paid so who knows if I am lucky and that's if I continue to live and work here over the next 25 years)
unlike most of you I make a modest income and have very little formal education so if I lost my job I would probably have to move thus potentially selling during a crash or some sort of re slow down but I do not know the future
Just work hard and live within my means is all I can do
February 15th, 2012 at 2:32 pm
What is it relevant to Van where 80% of house buyers are wealthy or well-to-do middle class Chinese, not low income Caucasian.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Any thoughts re average prices for Feb from those with data? With lower quality credits being squeezed out of the market (Firstline, etc.) and the remaining vancouver area market activity being at the higher end (still SFH bidding wars and $5m+ sales) where credit quality is equally high, it could mean averages/or arbitrary index prices go up albeit on lower volume.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:02 pm
@rp1:
And how well did that work in the US?
There's nothing the Government can do once the bust starts.
Even if they were in a financial position to pump billions in, it would only have a temporary effect.
Rates are zero and public debt is already too high (along with public healthcare and pension worries).
Add in the fact that a CDN recession could cause capital to flee Canada (thus raising bond rates) and we could actually have HIGHER mortgage rates after the bubble pops, exacerbating the situation.
That's what really makes it scary.
February 15th, 2012 at 1:47 pm
@DEFAULT NAME: How many took the bait and re-financed at lower rates in 2008/2009?
February 15th, 2012 at 1:44 pm
#52 @Nero: "Question is, what could possibly happen to juice RE at this point? Nothing."
The government could pay people to buy, or offer tax breaks to cover capital losses.
February 15th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Devore / Troll
Actually if you got a 5 year mortgage in 2007 when you're new now the interest rate could drop as much as 4 percent
2007 a 5 year mortgage was as high as 7 percent maybe even a little higher if you didn't negotiate
A potential savings of several hundreds per month
Also if you had a mortgage 5 years ago you probably paid a lot less than current at least in the Vancouver area
so perhaps they will decide to hold longer
I know I am but I am not a speculator just a resident owner but there is no way I would buy now it is too expensive regardless of which way prices go
February 15th, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Ya, noting pisses me off more than having to move every 14 years.
February 15th, 2012 at 1:01 pm
@Makaya: erratum… read :"I CAN stay"
February 15th, 2012 at 1:01 pm
@DEFAULT NAMEe:
I'm not familiar with UK RE so I can't really provide comparative insight other than the obvious.
But by itself, Van RE is doomed to be crushed under its own weight.
Whether they both fall concurrently or at different times remains to be seen.
February 15th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
@DEFAULT NAME:
"you are so smart, why r u being kicked from one rental to the next?"
That has not happened and will not. I'm only renting in properly managed buildings owned by pension funds. I can't stay as long as I want and my rent is never increased more than inflation. By the way, I'm also a home owner, but the property is not in Vancouver… I'm not that stupid.
Getting worried about your "investment"?
February 15th, 2012 at 12:54 pm
@Nero:
So is there a reason why Vancouver might crash before the UK?
February 15th, 2012 at 12:46 pm
@Anonymouse:
The UK bubble did exist in 2007 but only escaped severe correction because interest rates fell dramatically, thus inducing an unprecedented injection of capital into RE. Similar to what happened here in 2008. The Van RE market was tanking on its own, until rates fell to zero and sent prices parabolic.
Question is, what could possibly happen to juice RE at this point? Nothing.