Friday Free-for-all!

It’s Friday again and that means it’s time for our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread! Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

-Property investor, definitely keep your day job
-Mortgage pullback hints of housing crisis
-Ottawa leans on banks to tighten lending
-Canadas housing market: look out below
-Flaherty ‘concerned’ over mortgage lending
-Canada Gov exposure to mortgage lending raising alarm
-Is this what Januarys housing report looks like?
-Underused labour and pending housing bubble a problem for Canada
-US 30 year locked in mortgages hit new record low
-China limits foreigners housing mortgages

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

On a side note we’re still beta testing VancouverPeak.com as a forum replacement. It will likely replace the old VCI forum soon, so you if you’re a forum user here you may want to take a look at how it works over there. That site is registration by invite only, but if you registered for an account here before the end of January you’re probably already registered there.

VancouverPeak.com has a lot of functionality that is lacking in the current forums including uploading of txt, xls and other file formats. In addition to the forums, you can create discussion groups and new forums there and edit documents in each group.. this is similar to a wiki functionality, but with a more user friendly editing interface.

Try it out, feedback is welcome.

145 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”

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    Comment from builder: "I'm glad there are 3 buyers for every project I build."

    Market busts are like flooding a basement. It's amazing how much dirt there was embedded in the old carpet that floated to the surface when the water came.

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    here's something to chew on. The Vancouver board home price index will be eliminated. the Canadian Real Estate Association is launching their own with the board that will be brand new.

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    Anyone see the stats packages out for REBGV or FVREB?

    Thanks

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    @observer: Got a source?

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    So we called our landlord last night with the first problem in 2.5 years. We've never called before as I've always fixed simple issues myself rather than the hassle however this time the toilet clogged and I couldn't clear it with plunger, chemical, or auger. So, he came over with his power auger and made a good go at it; no luck. But the story is not the toilet (which is getting a visit from his plumber tonight).

    What is the story is that our landlord is living in his parents basement with his wife and three kids – he can't afford to live in the place we rent from him as I know our rent doesn't cover the mortgage and strata and his wife doesn't work. I told him about the new job I started last year and he asked my wife what she did and his response was an awkward statement of "You guys must make a lot of money" and a confused look on his face. This was the first time he visited our place since we moved in a couple years ago and the other comments he made were "wow, you have a really nice computer and tv", and "do you like to cook, your have a lot of fancy appliances". Our discussion somehow turned to vacations and he explained how much he wanted to go to Hawaii with his family but it is too expensive; I didn't tell him about our recent vacations. I almost felt like saying to him that yes, we earn a decent family income, take nice vacations, and have nice stuff because we rent but I actually felt bad for the guy and just held my tongue.

    I have looked forward to rubbing the noses of speculators in their mistakes but this in-person situation made me feel pitty for the guy as he is a nice guy, trying, and a good albeit amateur landlord. It made me realize that while there are a lot of idiots out there trying to make a quick buck, there are a lot more folks that are just naive and got caught up with what everyone around them was saying (it sounds to me like his father pushed him into the family business of "landlording").

    Have a great weekend everyone!

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    @ Franks

    toronto real estate board

    http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news

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    January REBGV stats out February 6th. Board is changing its format, apparently. Never mind! We have paulb. WHO YOU ALL OWE A REAL (NOT VIRTUAL) BEER.

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    Anonymous Says:
    8

    @ChemGuy: Another victom of the RE pumpers and the REA marketing machine. The buyer bears much of the responsibility….but the pumpers are contributing to the destruction of lives.

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    @ChemGuy: It's funny because my wife (who I brainwashed over real estate) posted an article on facebook with this comment:

    "Hopefully in time to come, the price of housing will crush and become affordable."

    To which a friend of ours (actually, she's a lawyer and probably earn decent money, own a place in Richmond and was considering bying another place in Edmonton where she recently moved) replied:

    "Hoping for a crash is horrible!!! A stabilizing of the market at near zero growth – ok, but a crash? That will hurt millions of hard working families who already own property!!!"

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    OMG – Did anyone else just get the new e-mail for the big new RE project in Richmond. Come on – what kind of name is the

    "Mandarin Residences".???

    Anyhow – what a time to change the stat format. Even though we will see a change, a scoresheet format does not affect the outcome of the game. As well, it will be difficult for them to spin the message any more than they already were. And – as long as they continue to provide the same sell / list statistics, the info will be good. It's just the commentary that you'll have to take with a grain of salt. Besides – we already got the report on one of the links above didn't we?

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    Anonymous Says:
    11

    @Makaya: Rule #1…keep your desires for a crash closely guarded and share only with non-owners. Rule #2…never talk about Crash Club.

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    Guy Smiley Says:
    12

    @Chemguy

    You have a good weekend too, Buzzkill :)

    I have several friends who have bought in the last 2 years. Not speculators, just young(ish) couples who were whipped into a combination of fear and greed by the constant barrage of bullish media coverage of Vancouver RE. These will be the typical losers of the coming correction unfortunately.

    Funny now how many commentators are rushing to joint the bear-parade. Everyone wants to be able to say they called it.

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    Heard on News 1130 this morning that certain industry commentators expect Carney to raise the debt ceiling for CMHC.

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-03/bank-

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    Navin R. Johnson Says:
    14

    Default…

    "@Makaya: Rule #1…keep your desires for a crash closely guarded and share only with non-owners. Rule #2…never talk about Crash Club."

    funny, funny guy/girl/it's Pat

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    Anonymous Says:
    15

    another typical bears day since 2004!

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    It looks like the inventory graph is coming down with a nasty inflection :(

    Bear tears are being shed.

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    VMD mobile Says:
    17

    @mflat:
    Most would expect Flaherty to raise the ceiling by some degree. The important thing is how much mortgage rule tightening will accompany that announcement…

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    Anonymous Says:
    18

    article on toronto star says

    "Meet the new jobless – your broker, your real estate agent, your insurer. This group lost ground again as the Canadian economy created a just 2,300 jobs in January, Statistics Canada says."

    hmmm….

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    Guy Smiley Says:
    19

    @TPFKAA

    The drop in listings doesn't even come close to the dropping sales numbers. The only tears falling are those of all the hopefuls who thought they'd sell their overpriced real estate to the wave of eager buyers (that never showed up) during CNY. Reality is setting in.

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    "Meet the new jobless – your broker, your real estate agent, your insurer."

    So sad. Could not happen to nicer bunch of people.

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    Patiently Waiting Says:
    21

    From the Vancouver Sun, written by a Mortgage Broker:

    This could change the Canadian housing and mortgage markets significantly. Raising the $600 Billion roof will not be easy politically, as Canadian citizens are on the hook if CMHC cannot afford to cover default losses. If the money supply begins to shrink, most lenders still want to keep their "AAA" business: income qualified, 20% down payment, owner occupied residences, etc. When the money supply begins to shrink, it happens on the back end. We saw this come under fire when the financial crisis started taking it on the chin in late 2008. Subprime lending nearly disappeared in Canada, commercial lending books were frozen, and lending for rental properties began tightening.

    Some lenders have already begun making changes to their lending criteria, but if CMHC is not granted a ceiling increase we may see:

    . Less competition as non-bank lenders are forced to reduce lending . Higher rates as banks find it more difficult to find buyers for uninsured mortgage bundles

    . Tighter restrictions on who banks lend to (like self employed and rental programs)

    Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/mortgage+ind

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    @TPFKAA –

    Definitely not a feverous lising pace right now. Looks like a reallocation due to start of CNY. Early in the year we saw listings much higher 10-30% y/y on a weekly basis while sales were generally 20% off last year same week.

    For this week – we are looking like 5% off on listings compared to last year same week and close to 30% off on sales.

    I'm not sure why you say there is an inflection point. The inventory is moving exactly as I have modelled and until listings start to show 20% decreases y/y we're not going to see the inventory get any better.

    Now – please note that I have a detail track of the old Agent Will graph numbers (which exludes most of the low volume fringes in REBGV so it does not exaclty match).

    I'm looking forward to the new site as I have lots of graphs and interesting analysis of market inflections. One interesting stat right now is that for the first time in many years we are running a track of Y/Y sales decreaes and y/y listing increases. They have not historically diverged as such (maybe in 2008 early but I don't have the detailed stats for then). This has been the trend since Oct 22 and this trend of slowing sales and increasing listings started around Aug 13.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    23

    @mflat:

    "certain industry commentators expect Carney to raise the debt ceiling for CMHC"

    Foregone conclusion. RE bubbles require continuously increasing debt just to keep prices from falling. Capping CMHC debt/guarantees would have a greater impact than the subprime meltdown in the US, which only affected the lower quality end of the mortgage market and happened a year after prices had peaked.

    Note that Fannie/Freddie never had their obligations capped prior to the 2008 crisis, and that FHA had its ceiling increased at the same time.

    The only question is how Flaherty is going to spin it.

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    @DEFAULT NAMEe: It's the low flow toilet, the tortuous path the siphon takes wouldn't let me get the snake into the stack nor the landlord with his professional version so neither of us could even get to the blockage.

    I think we are in need of a professional with a water jet. Stupid low flows, we need a Ferguson:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL2YRDzpTL4

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    25

    @Yalie:

    "The government could decide to do nothing and let the private mortgage insurance industry pick up the slack."

    Canada does not have a private mortgage insurance industry. It has profit-making insurers which have government guarantees.

    But now that you mention it, if the government's guarantees to those insurers are not included in the legislated CMHC ceiling, they may be the way to keep the pedal to the metal while pretending that the foot is on the brake.

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    Guy Smiley Says:
    26

    What about Genworth – isn't it private? Is it government guaranteed too?

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    Anonymous Says:
    27

    @Guy Smiley: The Canadian government guarantees 100% of CMHC's obligations and 90% of the private sector's obligations.

    Genworth is the largest of three private-sector companies that are government-backstopped up to a C$250 billion limit. The other two are Canada Guarantee Mortgage Insurance Co. and PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. Federal legislation last year raised their cap to C$300 billion, but it is not yet in force while the government works on draft regulations

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    Roomy Shopper Says:
    28

    Favorite notes from today's Genworth Mortgage Insurance Canada conference call from analyst friend:

    “we see the slowdown in the housing market as good news,” MIC CEO Brian Hurley (yep, nothing better than falling house prices for MIC)

    “the housing market is beginning to show signs of a soft landing” MIC CFO and Chief Risk Officer Stuart Levings (Survival rules for mortgage insurance risk officer: Deny there is a bubble all the way up and then jump all the way to soft landing talk six weeks into the downturn)

    “I just want to clarify that our business has plenty of capacity for 2012 and beyond” Brian Hurley. (“Hey Brian, is there enough room in the drawer to put more premium cheques?” Yep, we have plenty of capacity!)

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    Independentwealth Says:
    29

    Locked and loaded waiting for at least a 40% pullback! Us investors have been waiting for a chance at the big returns..Just needed the sheep to panic!

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    Independentwealth Says:
    30

    @Makaya

    That's great news…The higher unemployment gets the better those of us with cash will do.Absolute carnage in the Canadian economy is what we need!

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    @Independentwealth: No one wants a struggling Canadian economy or high unemployment here. Get real.

    Apart from the affordability problem, this bubble has created an oversized RE/construction sector which is going to get crushed during the bust, and we're all going to pay the price for it.

    The economy will re-balance in the long term, but that process will be painful. Don't blame it on the bears. If they had been listened to long time ago, we wouldn't be in as much trouble as we are today.

    I have no sympathy for the speculators (and there're lots of them), but in the process, lots of decent, naive, hard-working families will get hurt. Nobody can be happy about it.

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    Independentwealth Says:
    32

    @Makaya

    No way…we need Vancouver to become like Baltimore. Those with cash can get places for $30,000 and then get in on the Govt.subsidy gravy train for all those bankrupt suckers that had to go on welfare.We need Vancouver to turn into the absolute Slum it deserves to be(more crime more murders)that's when you can make real dough…Coming soon.Keep your powder dry.Best Place on Meth will back me up.
    http://www.npr.org/2011/06/29/137491233/cash-is-k

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    "Speaking to reporters in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Thursday, Flaherty echoed OSFI's concerns."

    Can someone tell me what the fuck Flaherty is doing in Israel?? Maybe someone should read this nimrod his job description. This is assinine, and of course the mainstream media says nothing. Does Canada not have an ambassador to Israel? If so, what the fuck is Flaherty doing in Israel??

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    @observer: Thanks. Here’s hoping they inaugurate their new thermometer with a series of negatives.

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    Anonymous Says:
    35

    @Makaya:

    Your wife's comment is an ignorant thing to put on facebook. Your wife is wishing financial hardship on others for her own gain.

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    @ChemGuy:

    "It’s the low flow toilet, the tortuous path the siphon takes wouldn’t let me get the snake into the stack nor the landlord with his professional version so neither of us could even get to the blockage."

    =========================

    Jesus, this is way worse than waiting while the elderly Chinese lady's pick through the green beans.

    This is like getting drunk, then watching paint dry.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    37

    How about those jobs numbers?

    All those useless jobs lost in real estate, finance and insurance is fucking awesome – with any luck Vancouver will whittle down those 10,200 realtors to about 500 of the better ones in the next couple of years.

    Fire the FIRE parasites and hire some people who actually do something productive.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    38

    @chilled:

    >>>what the fuck is Flaherty doing in Israel??<<<

    What all conservatives do, he's there serving the jewish state at our expense.

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    larry's #'s today:

    Vancouver All Areas*

    New Listings – 242

    Price Changes – 56

    Sold Listings – 121

    *Attached & Detached – Date: 2012/02/03

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    VanDweller VanDweller Says:
    40

    @ZRH2YVR I got something related to that. I didn’t even know my e-mail address is on “Rennie’s Marketing” list.

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    I got a complementary copy of Canadian Business magazine in my mailbox yesterday and the front page headline is “Crash: Why house prices are about to fall.” Here is a link to the article on their website:

    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/65694–prediction-the-canadian-housing-market-will-crash

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    @DEFAULT NAME:

    "Your wife’s comment is an ignorant thing to put on facebook. Your wife is wishing financial hardship on others for her own gain."

    Yeah right, we know how kindly us "renters" and "basement dwellers" were viewed by the other side.

    Give your head a shake.

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    @Best place on meth:

    "What all conservatives do, he's there serving the jewish state at our expense."

    I simply thought he was searching out parking for the new fighter jets. Thanks for clearing that up for me!!! LOL!!!

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    44

    @DEFAULT NAME:

    "Your wife is wishing financial hardship on others for her own gain."

    Anyone who would face "financial hardship" if they are unable to sell their house or condo for what they paid for it should not be buying in the first place.

    That goes for any investment. It's that simple.

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    Anonymous Says:
    45

    @patriotz:

    "That goes for any investment. It’s that simple."

    It would be like me putting on facebook I hope the stock market crashes so I can buy cheap stocks when your friends are buy and hold stock inventors with large investments in equities. Just no class posting it even if you hope it will happen.

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    Apocarypse Mao Says:
    46

    Flaherty in Israel?

    Since Israel has a huge housing bubble, maybe he's on a research mission.

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    "Flaherty in Israel?"

    paying the tribute to the biggest party contributors. lovely.

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    @DEFAULT NAME: "Your wife’s comment is an ignorant thing to put on facebook. Your wife is wishing financial hardship on others for her own gain."

    Was the Canadian Business article: "Prediction: The Canadian housing market will crash" an ignorant thing to publish too? Is this journalist wishing financial hardship on others for his own gain?

    Is it our fault if people have borrowed money beyond their means and are one interest rate hike away from bankruptcy?

    Being prudent savers and not kool-aid drinkers has been a lonely life during this mania… Everybody is responsible for its own decision.

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    If the largest mortgage lenders are tightening rules and capping mortgages, that’s our clearest signal that the end is nigh, regardless of how the RE Boards like to spin the data.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    50

    @DEFAULT NAME:

    "It would be like me putting on facebook I hope the stock market crashes so I can buy cheap stocks when your friends are buy and hold stock inventors with large investments in equities.'

    I have a lot of money in the stock market. I don't have any problem with people publicly saying that they want to market to go down so they can buy low, nor do I have any problem with people selling short so they can profit if prices go down.

    Those are the rules of the game and if people don't like the rules they can put their money somewhere else.

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    Patiently Waiting Says:
    51

    @DEFAULT NAME: FOAD troll

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    jumpin in Says:
    52

    "It would be like me putting on facebook I hope the stock market crashes so I can buy cheap stocks when your friends are buy and hold stock inventors with large investments in equities. Just no class posting it even if you hope it will happen."

    You seem to forget that the stock market is for INVESTMENT, while a house… well originally, a house was meant to be a HOME. You know, that place where your kids can grow instead of being packed in a tiny condo because idiots are borrowing beyond their means to play the real-estate-casino. Did those gamblers pity my kids for the past 5 years? Never: they called me a loser. So, I am sorry, but if the time of reckoning finally arrives, I will not feel sorry for the gamblers. And if it is not classy, IDGAS.

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    Anonymous Says:
    53

    @chilled:

    Mr Cardigan just told the Palestinians last week that they shouldn't expect to have their own state, like it's up to him to decide, so I guess Flaherty has gone there to pick up the script for the next session of Parliament.

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    New Listings 249

    Price Changes 56

    Sold Listings 122

    TI: 13548

    http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

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    Anonymouse Says:
    55

    @ChemGuy:

    “So, he came over with his power auger and made a good go at it; no luck. But the story is not the toilet (which is getting a visit from his plumber tonight). ”

    You say you pay strata fees, so am assuming you’re in an apartment. It’s possible there’s a blockage in the pipes outside of your unit. Would suggest notifying your building manager if you’ve been unable to even get close to the blockage with a 10-12ft auger, especially if you’re on a lower floor.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    56

    @jumpin in:

    Totally agreed.

    The stock market and the real estate market are not comparable.

    Nobody needs shares of companies, everyone needs a place to live and the people who have been speculating on homes and driving up the prices can all rot in hell.

    I wish nothing but disaster and misery for every single one of them.

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    @patriotz:

    “certain industry commentators expect Carney to raise the debt ceiling for CMHC”

    Foregone conclusion. RE bubbles require continuously increasing debt just to keep prices from falling.

    Not necessarily. The government could decide to do nothing and let the private mortgage insurance industry pick up the slack. Of course, they’ll charge a lot more than the 2-3% the CMHC currently charges, but it would still keep the debt train running, if slightly slower.

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    Everyone wants cheap housing… Until they own a house then most want expensive housing. Chalk it up to Pure greed and a very intrisic human instinct. It's undeniable and it's the poisonous heart of this real estate bubble. Even friendly moms on facebook have drank the cool aid, and god forbid you question their dreams!

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    Why do I get the impression these guys are fans of "Vancouver Condo info"?
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/st

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    Strengthening Real Estate in the U.S. will probably limit any Canadian declines.As for Vancouver…If you want to live in a major city by the Ocean(without a ferry) where else can you live?…Halifax?
    http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/resource_cent

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    @weiner: Mama is calling you

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    Anonymous Says:
    62

    @DEFAULT NAME: Quoted from the Wall Street Journal

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    Anonymous Says:
    63

    @DEFAULT NAME: In the same article genworth says they have lots of room before they hit their cap.

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    Anonymous Says:
    64

    @ZRH2YVR: “I’m not sure why you say there is an inflection point. The inventory is moving exactly as I have modelled and until listings start to show 20% decreases y/y we’re not going to see the inventory get any better.”

    I wish people wouldn’t use the word “better” to describe these sorts of statistics. Better to me means higher inventory, because I want the market to crash. Better to a real-estate investor means lower, because he does not want the market to crash.

    It’s all relative, and using terms like that only serves to confuse people.

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    @ZRH2YVR:

    I'm not saying that there is a permanent change in inventory growth pace; just in a mathematical sense a definite inflection point can be seen. The rate of change of the slope was zero or slightly positive until the last week of January when it became negative. In plain English that means the slope went from getting gradually steeper to getting gradually shallower.

    Whether this is corrected by another inflection to the upside and the slope becomes more vertical again, I am not able to predict. But if you look at 2011, the slope did diminish in mid February and never regained the same steepness that it had at the beginning of the year.

    I am sure the stats are still bearish; just not as spectacular as early January promised. That's why I am feeling a little let down.

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    @weiner: Strengthening US RE could hurt foreign investment from Americans in Canada.

    Why would an American buy here when they've got much cheaper options in areas as nice as Florida or California?

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    @Best place on meth: Nice to see you're still filled with hate, even on a Friday night. Racist.

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    Anonymous Says:
    68

    @Best place on meth:

    "Nobody needs shares of companies, everyone needs a place to live"

    Exactly so why post on facebook you hope their decision to buy a place to live ends up being a financial disaster? We are not talking about speculators but FRIENDS who have bought a place to live with their family. Yes maybe a dumb decision financially to buy but I think we can all understand why they had the desire to do it. Why bother with the BS on facebook? Just let what happens happen and be happy you were not dumb enough to fall into the trap. My guess is people like Makaya and his wife don't have many friends to why f-up the ones you have. The friends reaction on facebook speaks volumes.

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    Anonymous Says:
    69

    @jumpin in: "Did those gamblers pity my kids for the past 5 years? Never: they called me a loser."

    Well if what you call friends called you a loser for renting they are not your friends. Maybe they are calling you a loser for other reasons? Maybe you are a loser and it has nothing to do with renting? I rent and have never had anyone call me a loser.

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    ReadyToPop Says:
    70

    From the article above "Flaherty concerned by mortgage lending" :

    "OSFI's concern arises out of some work that OSFI has done as part of the ordinary course of its business to look at some of the loans being made by financial institutions," he said. "I was informed of what their assessment showed with respect to a few financial institutions, which is a matter of concern."

    "That is being corrected," Flaherty said.

    Memo? Phone call? Messenger on horseback?

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    Anonymous Says:
    71

    @patriotz: "I have a lot of money in the stock market. I don’t have any problem with people publicly saying that they want to market to go down so they can buy low, nor do I have any problem with people selling short so they can profit if prices go down."

    My guess is you will end up off worse in equities than those in housing today.

    But the point is Makaya's wife is posting it on facebook which is media for your friends. You know your friends circumstances so why post wishes that would impact them negatively? I have no problem if you want to educate your friends on why housing will crash but there is a way to do things and a way not to.

    We are not talking about posting anonymously on a blog. Do you post racist slurs on your facebook like you do around here? I doubt it. Even you are smarter than that.

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    @TPFKAA

    I agree – My graphs show the same. These inflection points are interesting because they are a change in trend. Right now the trend is listing below last year, while at the beginning of the year, it was way over last year. I don't think we will see 2009 type data this year but likely listing volumes a bit like last year. Sales however are slowing at an increasing pace (if that makes sense). The sales for this year divided by last year same week is getting lower.

    FYI – starting to see the effects of CNY but it is quite concentrated in Van-West and little impact (none really) in Richmond or West Van. At the current pace, Van-West should have a sales decrease over last year Feb of approx 25%-33%. Richmond will be a disaster at 60-70% decrease. West Van will be about 50%. Attached in Van-West looking to be 10% below last year same month.

    Just a note to remember as we go into this leap year, we will have 1 extra market day which is 5% increas over last year. That may dampen the overall decrease a little.

    Let's see how this February goes.

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    jumpin in Says:
    73

    http://www.prakashloungani.com/2011/12/global-hou

    GLOBAL HOUSE PRICE MONITOR

    Do house prices have more room to fall?

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    @DEFAULT NAME: The majority of our friends on fb are not from Vancouver and not even from Canada. For those who own somewhere else, they can't care less what's going on in Vancouver. Not everywhere is RE such a religion.

    I have one local friend that posted something like: "I've just come to the conclusion that I will never be able to buy a home here" a few months ago. Do these people, born and raised here, making average income, receive any of the compassion you have for the over-extended homeowners?

    The truth is, if you buy a house to simply live in and not as an investment, you don't really care about what the market is doing. If you sell your house at a lower price, you next house will be cheaper as well. A house is a shelter, not an investment.

    The only people that are worried are the speculators as per Vreaa's definition. Another one of my friend, a well-rounded, university educated woman (B.Eng+MBA), bought a condo in early 2010 in Yaletown, for $500K. She put 30% down, but she has no regular job. I tried to convince her not to do so, and she replied: "that's the only way to get rich". She spent an additional $20K in renovation "to increase the value of the property". By summer time, she came back to me and bragged that her condo had already gained 10% in value, which was not even true. Today, a good chunk of her equity has already vanished, and she still doesn't have a job. She's not bragging about it anymore.

    Smart people, like her and my lawyer friend, decided to go all in with the Casino the Vancouver RE market has become. Too bad if they lose, I don't feel sorry for them. They are responsible for their own situation.

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    casanova Says:
    75

    Introduction to HTML / Pat Androget / Pat_Androget@ncsu.edu

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    Independentwealth Says:
    76

    @Makaya

    You got it! We need millions to lose their homes.More people to rent our properties to…looking good!

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    Anonymous Says:
    77

    @DEFAULT NAMEe: ….“So, he came over with his power auger and made a good go at it; no luck. But the story is not the toilet (which is getting a visit from his plumber tonight). ”…

    Do you know the difference between a Realtor and a Toilet? The toilet is only full of shit occasionally (and the the toilet doesn't expect a commission when you finally take a dump).

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    Jobless in Canada: the new unemployed may surprise you (think Bay Street, real estate)

    Meet the new jobless – your broker, your real estate agent, your insurer. This group lost ground again as the Canadian economy created a just 2,300 jobs in January, Statistics Canada says.
    (…)
    “Given what’s happening in the rest of the world and the weakness we’re seeing locally in housing and construction, we’re not confident economic growth is going to rebound this year. In fact we expect slower growth,” Madani said.
    (…)
    Jobs in financial, real estate and insurance services took another hit in January, declining for the fifth consecutive month. They fell 23,000 in January and are down 50,000, or 4.6 per cent, from a year ago.

    “Something quite significant is going on there. That has a lot of important implications for Toronto in particular, since the financial industry is so important to the city,” said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist of BMO Capital Markets. “There has been talk of some (financial) institutions cutting back. It may be quietly underway.”
    (…)
    The job market is also likely reacting to cooling of Canada’s red hot real estate market, economists said. Construction jobs also fell as housing starts weakened last month.
    (…)
    By sector, employment rose in the education, information, culture and recreation and in other service industries in January.

    Meanwhile, 45,000 jobs were lost in professional, scientific and technical services. Manufacturing jobs rose but there were still 44,000 fewer such jobs compared to a year ago.

    This is just the beginning… The burst of the RE bubble will not help employment for sure…

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    Patiently Waiting Says:
    79

    @Makaya: The vast of people on our planet have short, brutal lives. Here in Canada, many can barely afford to eat or keep a roof over their heads. There is so much pain and suffering in this world to make my heart weep.

    Now, idiots who speculate on Vancouver real estate borrowing more than they can afford, with insurance backed by my taxes? Fuckem.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    80

    @Makaya:

    "The truth is, if you buy a house to simply live in and not as an investment, you don’t really care about what the market is doing. "

    That is the point exactly. If you don't consider something to be an investment, you DON'T CARE how much you can sell it for.

    If you DO care, then it's an investment, and you should never buy any investment that you're not prepared to lose money on. If a decline in price causes you problems, that's YOUR FAULT. You had the choice of buying at the market price or renting. Either way you would still have had a place to live. Not to mention that in Vancouver you would have gotten a much nicer place for the same monthly cost by renting.

    And on top of that, RE is by far the easiest investment to determine what a reasonable price to pay is. People who pay more that that are responsible both for their own problems and the problems caused to the broader economy, as we can well see in the US and other countries.

    If you're not willing to live with an investment loss, stick to GIC's.

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    [...] jesse at vancouvercondo.info 3 Feb 2012 7:08am, spotted by ‘Bailing in [...]

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    @ZRH2YVR:

    Thanks for the insights! Yes, it makes total sense that sales are slowing at an increasing pace. That is great news. The inventory graph is a function of both sales and listings; it is good to have separate trendlines for each to get a more complete picture.

    So listings are dipping but sales are getting crushed year on year.

    It's not too bad. I guess the record low interest rates are not enough to keep a flat market. We'll see where this volume leads prices – eventually.

    Patience to wait this out is inversely proportional to incidence of leaks and mold in a rented house. I have no doubt where that particular metric is trending right now.

    Good to see you still donating your data analysis abilities to the community despite having your escape route laid out! I have been to Zurich; it is a fantastic city. Switzerland really is a beautiful and clean place.

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    Anonymous Says:
    83

    @patriotz:

    "That is the point exactly. If you don’t consider something to be an investment, you DON’T CARE how much you can sell it for."

    Oh really. Do people consider buying a new car an investment? No, but resale value is something people would consider when buying one. This is one reason Honda and Toyota have been very successful because they have good resale value. Resale value is something considered very important for this non investment. Anything people buy that may have to be sold at some point in the future will always have re sale value as a consideration. It is just common sense. You need to get away from the computer more and into the real world.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    84

    @DEFAULT NAME:

    "Do people consider buying a new car an investment? No, but resale value is something people would consider when buying one."

    I don't know what vocabulary every car buyer uses, but if you are expecting a future financial return from something it's an investment, by definition.

    That is the case even if you expect to sell it for less than you paid for it.

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    Anonymous Says:
    85

    @patriotz: "That is the case even if you expect to sell it for less than you paid for it."

    An investment has an expectation of gain.

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    Anonymous Says:
    86

    @patriotz:

    I guess your definition of investment is different than most.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment

    Does this sound like a car?

    "Investment is putting money into something with the expectation of gain, that upon thorough analysis, has a high degree of security for the principal amount, as well as security of return, within an expected period of time"
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment

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    Best place on meth Says:
    87

    Numbers for week #5 of 2012:

    Listings 1375 (last year 1403) -2%

    Sales 550 (last year 701) -21.5%

    Ratio 40% (last year 50%)

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    88

    @DEFAULT NAME:

    Gain includes value of use.

    Why does Hertz (and the taxman) consider its rental cars to be investments?

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    "Being prudent savers and not kool-aid drinkers has been a lonely life during this mania… Everybody is responsible for its own decision."

    Well, I guess in some ways, but I sure feel just fine when I read about peoples debts and I dont have any. I can take deep breaths b/c I love fresh cool clean air, not b/c of stress management. I dont feel particularly lonely about not belonging in the debt cheeple pool, not at all. Does the large number of people make a bad decision a good one? Really? History repeats itself.

    So yeah, I really think we are on our own, to use our brains, intelligence, common sense, to arrive at good decisions. Seems like many with great uni eds still dont see the light.

    I almost consider myself one of the priviledged in spite of not owning a fancy car/clothes/blings or overpaid for 4 walls.

    Freedom is a treasure, but some rather be tied to debt so they can "impress". Impress on who?? Another debt ridden idiot?

    " Did those gamblers pity my kids for the past 5 years? Never: they called me a loser. So, I am sorry, but if the time of reckoning finally arrives, I will not feel sorry for the gamblers. And if it is not classy, IDGAS."

    Exactly, I guess. At work I have to keep my mouth shut, and even more so now when things are starting to crumble. People that thought they were bright, smart, even "better", b/c of real estate, are starting to scour for O/T. Oh well.

    Now is the time to weather the storm. Lay low, dont let anybody in on that you have means, they will try to "befriend you".

    People get funny when they get jealous. It sounds very "hermit", but I think there is a bad mindset out there, that the world owes them, that they "deserve" it. I guess we will see about that. I have never yet seen a bank let debt go b/c so and such is hot chick or coolsmart guy or so "wonderful".

    Cough up the dough, now!

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    Anonymous Says:
    90

    @patriotz:

    "Gain includes value of use. Why does Hertz (and the taxman) consider its rental cars to be investments?"

    And the $500 vacuum cleaner Hertz uses to clean the cars is considered an investment by the taxman too. Does that mean my Dyson I use to vacuum my car is an investment? I guess under your logic it would be through value of use. Is there anything that would not be an investment?

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    91

    @DEFAULT NAME:

    You know, I really don't care whether you consider a vacuum cleaner, a car, or for that matter a house an investment.

    My point is simply that nobody buying a house has any entitlement to sell it for any given price, and anyone who gets into financial trouble because of a fall in the market price of their house is the author of their own misfortune. Whether they think the house is an investment, however defined, or not.

    End of financial terminology debate.

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    VanDweller VanDweller Says:
    92

    I was curious and I calculated some ratios for CMHC liabilities vs market size. I'll add them here for the record.

    MS = Mortgage Market size

    CMH L = CMHC liabilities

    CMH I = CMHC insurance

    * All values are in billions unless otherwise specified

    Year | _MS | CMH L | CMH I | I/MS | …L/I |

    2006 | 0687 | 118.7 | 291.4 | 0.42 | 0.41 |

    2007 | 0787 | 141.1 | 345.2 | 0.44 | 0.41 |

    2008 | 0664 | 195.2 | 407.7 | 0.61 | 0.48 |

    2009 | 0940 | 263.5 | 472.5 | 0.50 | 0.56 |

    2010 | 1010 | 281.7 | 514.1 | 0.51 | 0.55 |

    2011 | 1079 | 270.1 | 533.2 | 0.49 | 0.51 |

    There's a big inflection in 2008/2009. You can easily spot when everyone started buying insurance as a percentage of the total mortgage market size. Though since then I feel more people have been putting in their own money rather than borrowed money in the market.

    Note: I had to add some random characters to get the formatting to look a little better.

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    VanDweller VanDweller Says:
    93

    And the reference used for the previous post are:
    http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/about/anrecopl

    and

    http://www.ratehub.ca/mortgage-statistics-canada

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    So someone took a chance and moved to a not so nice area 7-8 years ago and through hard work and sweat fixed their place up meanwhile others did the same..made a home for their families.. and the area improved…no druggies…no crime…So you guys want to be able to pay what that person did all those years ago and get something for nothing?!…Wow..Talk about a bunch of Scumbags.

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    Anonymous Says:
    95

    @Worker: …..So someone took a chance and moved to a not so nice area 7-8 years ago and through hard work and sweat fixed their place up…

    We're going to have to hold a lottery to see who get's to pick that moronic statement apart first.

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    West Ender Says:
    96

    Stupid Bears waiting to snap West Point gray properties for under half mil! fucking idiots

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    97

    @Worker:

    "So you guys want to be able to pay what that person did all those years ago and get something for nothing?"

    Every seller wants to get as much as possible, and every buyer wants to pay as little as possible. That does not make either the buyer or seller a "scumbag" or whatever. Nobody has to buy RE in the first place.

    If you have an agreement on price between buyer and seller you have a sale.

    And that's all. Paying the market price for anything is not getting something for nothing.

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    @West Ender

    Even if we get a 30% drop the idiots on this site still won't have the resources to buy a place.."Speculators" are fucking Saints compared to these people.

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    Whether housing prices go up or down is of no concern to me. If you want to buy a home as an investment that comes with $4000/month in carrying costs so you can rent it back to me for $2000/month, then I wish you all the best of luck in profiting from it (and many have).

    What does bother me is that whenever the possibility of housing prices correcting is discussed (and it is inevitable, markets all follow natural cycles) all the real estate bulls come here and throw a tantrum. I don't wish anyone ill for owning real estate, but if you've put yourself in a position that a correction in housing prices will cause you great financial stress, then you have a problem. Don't come here to bitch about it, try renting instead.

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    ReadyToPop Says:
    100

    @worker

    Are speculators who borrow at these low rates in an attempt to make a buck and jack up the price of shelter for everyone else….are they not stealing from senior citizens, who now get below inflation on their savings? In my opinion, I'd call that, "getting something for nothing".

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    West Ender Says:
    101

    Worker: "Even if we get a 30% drop the idiots on this site still won’t have the resources to buy a place"

    loosers. i mean why should someone care care where people put their money??? fuck..if they prefer to rent moldy, underground basement all your life because it is somehow "make sense" then it is your god dam problem. I don't care. if you want to own it then work and save harder. no free lunch.

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    Patiently Waiting Says:
    102

    Just the time for a quake like this. Too small and far away to do damage, but close enough and powerful enough to make buyers nervous.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Earthquake+strik

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    103

    @joycer:

    That's what gets to me as well, the colossal sense of entitlement that RE owners have. They think that other people, both individually and collectively, have an obligation to keep the price of their asset from falling to the degree that someone buying a house for less than the owner paid for it is seen as ripping them off in some way.

    The ultimate welfare bums.

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    Patiently Waiting Says:
    104

    So butthurt troll, how's the open house going? You seem to have a lot of time on your hands. :)

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    @Worker: "So someone took a chance and moved to a not so nice area 7-8 years ago"

    1-That person had no obligation to buy in the first place. He could have rented in a much nicer place for a lower cost.

    2-If that person has not loaded up in Helocs and other kind of debt, even with a 50% market correction, he will still be positive in his equity. What's your problem really?

    3-If that person had lived the great life on the perception that real estate will always go up, well too bad. You're on the wrong blog if you're looking for pity.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    106

    @Makaya:

    And I will add, it remains the same house no matter what someone else is willing to pay for it. No potential buyer can make him sell. So why should the market price matter to the owner at all. He thought the price he paid was worth it, didn't he?

    Unless he didn't buy it as a place to live but as a vehicle to make money.

    And that goes for every owner, everywhere.

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    Below is an interesting message posted by Raging Ranter on VREAA's blog:

    Though you might be interested in this. It’s the partial text from an email that was sent out by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP):

    “CAAMP is advocating the following fundamental messages:

    Government has already tightened lending criteria significantly and mortgage volumes have decreased;

    The issue of lenders and the mortgage insurance ceiling has nothing to do with lending practices, but rather liquidity and capital requirements;

    Arrears and defaults in Canada remain low and are declining;

    Homeowners have significant equity and are paying down their mortgages.”

    (…)

    “As an industry, we are vigilant and cautious against further measures that could precipitate a weakening of the housing market.”

    I don’t have an original copy of the email, but the text above was posted on Canadian Mortgage Trends (CMT).

    What CAAMP is doing here can be explained two ways:

    A) They are issuing talking points to rally the troops in an effort to pre-empt any tightening of mortgage rules. This email will no doubt find its way into the inboxes of every broker, lender, realtor, and ultimately most would-be mortgage applicants in the country.

    B) They are already laying the groundwork for scape-goating when the market does collapse.

    Interestingly, after leaving half a dozen heretical comments, CMT decided to block me. They don’t want their bubble pierced until they’re damn well ready!

    The headline of the post says it all doesn’t it?

    Avoiding policy-made crisis

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    @Makaya: a sense of irony is likely in short supply over there.

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    Raging Ranter Says:
    109

    “CAAMP is advocating the following fundamental messages:"

    In other words, they're issuing talking points to their industry contacts, and hoping these points form the backbone of a major lobbying effort to prevent any sort of mortgage eligibility tightening. No doubt MPs, Ministers and CMHC officials will receive a flood of emails based on the message, and these points will be repeated in various media releases and interviews.

    Also interesting is that they are admitting that "mortgage volumes have decreased." This is markedly different from the usual rah rah rah message they convey to the media. Compare the email to the upbeat message in their latest Mortgage Insights newsletter.

    The overall tone strikes me as quite urgent; desperate even.

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    jumpin in Says:
    110

    "loosers. i mean why should someone care care where people put their money??? fuck..if they prefer to rent moldy, underground basement all your life because it is somehow “make sense” then it is your god dam problem. I don’t care. if you want to own it then work and save harder. no free lunch."

    You made my day! I am renting a heritage home that I like very much, thank you, especially since I did not have to pay for the replacement of the drain tiles. This morning over breakfast, I realized that if prices stay flat (a best case scenario those days), inflation alone is eating more of this asset than could be covered by my rent :)

    (Not to mention taxes that jumped 30% lately).

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    jumpin in Says:
    111

    I just saw a documentary on CBC about people playing the lottery. One man said:"I have worked hard all my life for a small salary so I play the lottery because I DESERVE TO WIN!" I seemed so entitled!

    I feel exactly the same when I hear a homoner saying it is not acceptable to let RE prices drop.

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    West Ender Says:
    112

    jumpin in Says: "I am renting a heritage home"

    "heritage", is that code word for dumpy, 100 years old house? friking loosers.

    jumpin in Says:" inflation alone is eating more of this asset"

    we have deflation Charlie for over 3 years. get your facts straight.

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    Raging Ranter Says:
    113

    It's getting really irritating to hear homeowners nagging us about how bad a real estate correction will be. I find it especially galling because myself and other non-participants in the boom (i.e. the "basement dwellers", "rentards" and "jealous renters") have been warning of exactly that for years and were laughed at for our efforts.

    Now that the correction we warned about is getting near, it's as though we've got some sort of moral obligation to join hands with indebted homeowners and pray for stable or rising home prices. And we're being told it is impolite and "classless" if we dare to hope for a correction.

    Well, pardon my manners, but your home value is not my problem. Never was. Never will be. As a non-owner who plans to buy someday, I will benefit from falling home prices, just as surely as you benefited from rising prices. The last decade belonged to you. Did you really think you were going to get two in a row?

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    Raging Ranter Says:
    114

    West Ender Says:

    “heritage”, is that code word for dumpy, 100 years old house? friking loosers.

    we have deflation Charlie for over 3 years. get your facts straight.

    Here’s the Bank of Canada's inflation calculator. Plug in the numbers, and find me a single year within the last 3, nay, within the last 30, in which prices have gone down year from the year before. Then come back here and tell us about the "deflation" we're experiencing.

    But fear not. You'll soon be receiving in the mail a free lesson in asset price deflation: your next property assessment. Then, my friend, you will have reason to talk about deflation.

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    SunBlaster Says:
    115

    Friend of mine had 2 apartments and a house, he sold all of the properties and bought a $600k house with $300k down payment. Before he bought the place I told him he better off renting for couple of years and invest his money into something that can generate small income,because housing is going down, and if it doesn't than he brakes even on rent vs investment income.

    He was surprised that I though that RE is going to crash, that was last year, now he asks me hows my theory doing, since he received his 2011 assessment and his house went up by 3%.

    Moral of the story keep my thoughts to myself.

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    Guy Smiley Says:
    116

    Will the new site have F7 capability so 'loosers' like west ender can be gramatically, if not factually, correct?

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    Clockbike Says:
    117

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/st

    Cheakamus Crossing: Built on a dump, next to a sewage treatment plant and asphalt plant with high voltage transmission lines overhead. They are not pleased for some reason.

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    at least my mandarin Says:
    118

    At least the Hong Kongers don't have to worry about being accused of racism.

    http://www.chinasmack.com/2012/stories/hong-konge

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    jumpin in Says:
    119

    "We have deflation Charlie for over 3 years. get your facts straight"

    Facts;

    inflation = food, gas, etc (in case you did not notice).

    Deflation of your assets.

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    jumpin in Says:
    120

    For the emotional RE-gamblers:
    https://www.ic.gc.ca/app/scr/oca-bc/ssc/house.htm

    The government is advising me to rent if the value of my home is more than $380,000.

    FYI, I rent a $1,500,000 house.

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    @118 – at least my mandarin is improving Says:

    At least the Hong Kongers don’t have to worry about being accused of racism.

    It's very sad and tragic to watch how far Hong Kong has come in the last 9 years since SARs only for their landlord China to take it away from them. The time frame to watch is the run-up to 2017. 30 year mortgages may be unobtainable due to all leases ending when the 2047 handover occurs.

    Hong Kong can't remain as it is now. They have to live together with the mainlanders they despise or emigrate. If they choose to leave, Vancouver may be a possible destination as it was in 1997. If that's the case any housing correction could be an excellent buying opportunity.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    122

    @Raging Ranter:

    "As a non-owner who plans to buy someday, I will benefit from falling home prices, just as surely as you benefited from rising prices."

    Homeowners don't benefit from rising prices unless they SELL. Believing otherwise is the fallacy that leads to the home ATM.

    Non-owners don't benefit from falling prices unless they buy. But logistically, it's a lot easier for a non-owner to get in at the right time than for an owner to get out at the right time.

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    Raging Ranter Says:
    123

    @Patrioz:

    You are correct. I was trying to make the point that rising home prices aren't "good" any more than falling home prices are "bad". Changes in price do not represent an increase in wealth. They represent a transfer of wealth from one group to another. There is therefore nothing inherently ethical or economically beneficial about rising home prices in the long term. It only feels as though there is in the short-to-medium term.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    124

    @Raging Ranter:

    "Changes in price do not represent an increase in wealth. They represent a transfer of wealth from one group to another."

    No. Changes in price in themselves do not represent a transfer of wealth between owners and non-owners. It's sales that represent a transfer of wealth between buyers and sellers.

    That is, a sale of an asset for more than fundamental value (i.e. rental value for RE) is a transfer of wealth from the buyer to the seller, and a sale for less than fundamental value is a transfer from the seller to the buyer.

    Also, changes in rents represent a transfer in wealth between owners and renters, because rent is the price of shelter and renters buy shelter from owners.

    But a change in price does not represent a transfer of wealth without a sale. Without a sale, an asset is worth its fundamental value to its owner, not the market price.

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    @patriotz: That was hammered home recently talking to someone moving stateside. Buying REO is cheaper but can take months and is no sure thing it completes. If you're renting this is less a concern.

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    @danm: Wasn't integration with mainland China one of the reasons for exodus of the early 1990s, in part to Vancouver? Sounds like "the barbarians are at the gates" but instead of wearing Chairman Mao issue fatigues they wear Gucci and Prada.

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    Toronto prices, especially Condo medians, look like they are inexorably sliding downward.

    http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2012/02/to

    It's only two months of decline in the detached, but it's a lot of data and a pretty low noise line… But hey, F C or whoever, might try to go for the save. One never knows.

    (I don't have medians any farther back than the chart, just fyi)

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    Raging Ranter Says:
    128

    @ Patriotz, I agree. No point splitting hairs. Of course no wealth transfer takes place without a sale. No transaction, no transfer. When I say rising/falling prices represent a wealth transfer, I am assuming that numerous transactions take place. Regardless of price, there will be buying and selling, renting and letting. It is through those transactions that wealth is transferred. But it is the price relative to prior periods that allows us to determine which way the wealth is flowing.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    129

    @Raging Ranter:

    Suppose there's a small town with 100 owning households and 100 renting households. There's a bubble. 10 owning households decide to sell. 10 renting households buy their houses. The 10 households selling become renters.

    Which group of households is wealthier than before, the owners or the renters?

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    Raging Ranter Says:
    130

    @ Patriotz,

    Without knowing the prices of the houses and the rents being charged, I can't answer your question. Anyway, I understand the point you made in your previous posts, and I'm not arguing with it. Changing prices don't mean any wealth has changed hands. Got it. Wealth doesn't transfer until transactions take place. Got it.

    You remind me of the wife of a friend of mine. I can be in complete and total agreement with her on every single point, and she'll still find a way to turn it into an argument. :) This horse has been beaten well past death.

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    Anonymous Says:
    131

    @patriotz:

    Which group of households is wealthier than before, the owners or the renters?

    Trick question…nobody is wealthier at the time of the sale. It just juggles the numbers on the balance sheet.

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    Patiently Waiting Says:
    132

    Shared equity programs are the latest scheme for affordable housing:

    "In Calgary, however, those earning between $53,000 and $80,000 can apply to the city-run Attainable Housing Calgary Corp. for a free downpayment, said spokeswoman Tara Cooney.

    Homebuyers who qualify for a mortgage and have a $2,000 downpayment would receive, in one example, a five per cent downpayment of $11,000 as a forgivable loan for a $220,000 home in an Attainable Housing complex, leaving them with a $207,000 mortgage.

    When they sell, they would forfeit one-quarter to three-quarters of any earned equity to Attainable Homes, said Cooney.

    For instance, if they sold after four years and the home rose to $254,700, the couple would keep 75 per cent of the $45,700 equity, or $34,275.

    The remaining 25 per cent of the equity would remain with Attainable Homes, which uses it to fund downpayments for other homebuyers."

    Read more: http://www.theprovince.com/business/Shared+equity

    OK so what happens if the market crashes. How do foreclosures work in this scheme? I can't help but wonder if the government takes the loss if the "owner" declares BK.

    I think its better if the government keeps the land and builds affordable rental/non-market housing. If people want to "own" they should finance it themselves.

    Central to this scheme, is the unproven belief that homeownership leads to better communities and is better for middle class finances.

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    YLTN @ Work Says:
    133

    CNY spending not looking so good in the motherland:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-05/china-s-

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    134

    @Raging Ranter:

    "Without knowing the prices of the houses and the rents being charged, I can’t answer your question."

    I told you that there is a bubble, which means that price/rent is excessive. That's all you have to know.

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    Happy Sunday! Curious to know what did 3071 west king edward just sell for? I have a similiar home and thinking it time to list!

    Thanks for any answers!

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    pricedoutfornow Says:
    136

    @Patiently Waiting:

    I know a guy who bought there recently. The unit he bought is old and rundown. So far he's had to spend a lot of money on repairs and maintenance (new hot water tank, for example). Think he may be suffering from buyers remorse. It's been less than 6 months.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    137

    @Seller:

    3071 west king edward sold for 1.465, asking 1.299, 9 days on market.

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    @Seller:

    Over asking by >150k! Was listed at 1.3M. Well priced homes at this price point will sell quickly… even in the over supplied Westside Mkt. feel free to email me if I could be of any help. I can forward you the sales history and listing sheet if you like.

    paulboenisch@gmail.com

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    139

    @Patiently Waiting:

    RE prices in Calgary peaked in 2007, have fallen over 10% since then, and continue to fall.

    Similar schemes were found during the bubble in the US. What you end up with is bankrupt "homeowners", and the sponsoring governments holding debts that they cannot collect.

    The only winners are the RE developers who get to sell crappy housing without having to drop prices enough to get buyers on the open market.

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    Anonymous Says:
    140

    then you should have moved to calgary instead becoming an armchair economist in ottawa.

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    scullboy Says:
    141

    Greetings from Halifax,

    Looks like I won't be on the East Coast much longer. I was offered an excellent job in Toronto and I start on Monday. Toronto isn't my favorite city by a long shot, but it's an excellent job and let's face it, you can put up with a lot if you're making bank. :)

    You know, I've rented and owned in a few different cities now. I get why people buy, I really do but the last 6 years have taught me a really important lesson: In turbulent times, only the flexible will survive.

    I'm gen X and this is exactly the opposite wisdom my Boomer parents tried to instill. I think I only really earned their respect when I bought a home in Toronto, even though I'd had quite a succesful career before then. Times became turbulent, I sold my home (at a modest profit, quickly eaten by various fees), and in the ensuing 6 years I lived on both coasts.

    It's really hit home recently that the only way I've been able to survive and adapt was because picking up and going where the work is was easy.

    I can tell from the tone of the posts on this blog sentiment is shifting. I think recent purchasers sense the ground is shifting under them. I get the feeling they are only now beginning to understand their level of commitment, and that's just as the media are beginning to run stories that indicate that no, the real estate ladder does not go on forever. There is a top, and we are approaching it now. THat house they just spend 2 – 3 million on is not going to be worth 5 – 6 million in a couple of months. In fact it may be worth 1.75 – 2 million. New owners and bulls are angry and they're looking to blame someone. Thus, hostility to people who are trying to "crash the market".

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: Math trumps psychology every single time.

    As I said before I think the only people who are going to survive this particular recession are those who are flexibile. Keep your investments as liquid as you can, and keep your commitments to a minimum.

    That way if an opportunity arises in another city, you can jump.

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    Rich Toscano aka piggington: A Lost Decade-Plus for San Diego Home Prices

    While it was an interesting ride, point-to-point, real San Diego home prices have gone nowhere for 11 years.

    VancouverIsDifferentVancouverIsDifferent

    VancouverIsDifferentVancouverIsDifferent

    VancouverIsDifferentVancouverIsDifferent

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    Anonymous Says:
    143

    #141,

    who the f*cked care a post from halifax!

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    Guy Smiley Says:
    144

    Please forgive my ignorance, but I was just looking at the HPI figures from MLS on the REBGV website, and i'm totally confused. What exactly do the 1 month and 6 month averages a measure of? They are listed as 11.3 and 36.2 for detached in the gva in this report. And 1, 3, and 5 year measures at -0.1, -0.2 and -0.3 respectively. These don't seem to jive with the explanation of HPI formulas.

    Has HPI always been registered trademark?

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    Guy Smiley Says:
    145

    Press release is out now too and is repeated on the statistics page. I understand the problems using the median and mean, but i miss them already.

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