Friday Free-for-all!

It’s Friday again and that means it’s time for our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread! Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Property investor, definitely keep your day job
Mortgage pullback hints of housing crisis
Ottawa leans on banks to tighten lending
Canadas housing market: look out below
Flaherty ‘concerned’ over mortgage lending
Canada Gov exposure to mortgage lending raising alarm
Is this what Januarys housing report looks like?
Underused labour and pending housing bubble a problem for Canada
US 30 year locked in mortgages hit new record low
China limits foreigners housing mortgages

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

On a side note we’re still beta testing VancouverPeak.com as a forum replacement. It will likely replace the old VCI forum soon, so you if you’re a forum user here you may want to take a look at how it works over there. That site is registration by invite only, but if you registered for an account here before the end of January you’re probably already registered there.

VancouverPeak.com has a lot of functionality that is lacking in the current forums including uploading of txt, xls and other file formats. In addition to the forums, you can create discussion groups and new forums there and edit documents in each group.. this is similar to a wiki functionality, but with a more user friendly editing interface.

Try it out, feedback is welcome.

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jesse
Member

Comment from builder: "I'm glad there are 3 buyers for every project I build."

Market busts are like flooding a basement. It's amazing how much dirt there was embedded in the old carpet that floated to the surface when the water came.

observer
Guest
observer

here's something to chew on. The Vancouver board home price index will be eliminated. the Canadian Real Estate Association is launching their own with the board that will be brand new.

Nero
Guest
Nero

Anyone see the stats packages out for REBGV or FVREB?

Thanks

Many Franks
Guest

@observer: Got a source?

ChemGuy
Guest
ChemGuy
So we called our landlord last night with the first problem in 2.5 years. We've never called before as I've always fixed simple issues myself rather than the hassle however this time the toilet clogged and I couldn't clear it with plunger, chemical, or auger. So, he came over with his power auger and made a good go at it; no luck. But the story is not the toilet (which is getting a visit from his plumber tonight). What is the story is that our landlord is living in his parents basement with his wife and three kids – he can't afford to live in the place we rent from him as I know our rent doesn't cover the mortgage and strata and his wife doesn't work. I told him about the new job I started last year and he… Read more »
observer
Guest
observer

@ Franks

toronto real estate board

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news

jesse
Member

January REBGV stats out February 6th. Board is changing its format, apparently. Never mind! We have paulb. WHO YOU ALL OWE A REAL (NOT VIRTUAL) BEER.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@ChemGuy: Another victom of the RE pumpers and the REA marketing machine. The buyer bears much of the responsibility….but the pumpers are contributing to the destruction of lives.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@ChemGuy: It's funny because my wife (who I brainwashed over real estate) posted an article on facebook with this comment:

"Hopefully in time to come, the price of housing will crush and become affordable."

To which a friend of ours (actually, she's a lawyer and probably earn decent money, own a place in Richmond and was considering bying another place in Edmonton where she recently moved) replied:

"Hoping for a crash is horrible!!! A stabilizing of the market at near zero growth – ok, but a crash? That will hurt millions of hard working families who already own property!!!"

yvr2zrh
Member

OMG – Did anyone else just get the new e-mail for the big new RE project in Richmond. Come on – what kind of name is the

"Mandarin Residences".???

Anyhow – what a time to change the stat format. Even though we will see a change, a scoresheet format does not affect the outcome of the game. As well, it will be difficult for them to spin the message any more than they already were. And – as long as they continue to provide the same sell / list statistics, the info will be good. It's just the commentary that you'll have to take with a grain of salt. Besides – we already got the report on one of the links above didn't we?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Makaya: Rule #1…keep your desires for a crash closely guarded and share only with non-owners. Rule #2…never talk about Crash Club.

Guy Smiley
Guest
Guy Smiley

@Chemguy

You have a good weekend too, Buzzkill 🙂

I have several friends who have bought in the last 2 years. Not speculators, just young(ish) couples who were whipped into a combination of fear and greed by the constant barrage of bullish media coverage of Vancouver RE. These will be the typical losers of the coming correction unfortunately.

Funny now how many commentators are rushing to joint the bear-parade. Everyone wants to be able to say they called it.

mflat
Member
mflat

Heard on News 1130 this morning that certain industry commentators expect Carney to raise the debt ceiling for CMHC.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-03/bank-

Navin R. Johnson
Guest
Navin R. Johnson

Default…

"@Makaya: Rule #1…keep your desires for a crash closely guarded and share only with non-owners. Rule #2…never talk about Crash Club."

funny, funny guy/girl/it's Pat

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

another typical bears day since 2004!

TPFKAA
Guest
TPFKAA

It looks like the inventory graph is coming down with a nasty inflection 🙁

Bear tears are being shed.

VMD mobile
Guest
VMD mobile

@mflat:
Most would expect Flaherty to raise the ceiling by some degree. The important thing is how much mortgage rule tightening will accompany that announcement…

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

article on toronto star says

"Meet the new jobless – your broker, your real estate agent, your insurer. This group lost ground again as the Canadian economy created a just 2,300 jobs in January, Statistics Canada says."

hmmm….

Guy Smiley
Guest
Guy Smiley

@TPFKAA

The drop in listings doesn't even come close to the dropping sales numbers. The only tears falling are those of all the hopefuls who thought they'd sell their overpriced real estate to the wave of eager buyers (that never showed up) during CNY. Reality is setting in.

Dante
Guest
Dante

"Meet the new jobless – your broker, your real estate agent, your insurer."

So sad. Could not happen to nicer bunch of people.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting
From the Vancouver Sun, written by a Mortgage Broker: This could change the Canadian housing and mortgage markets significantly. Raising the $600 Billion roof will not be easy politically, as Canadian citizens are on the hook if CMHC cannot afford to cover default losses. If the money supply begins to shrink, most lenders still want to keep their "AAA" business: income qualified, 20% down payment, owner occupied residences, etc. When the money supply begins to shrink, it happens on the back end. We saw this come under fire when the financial crisis started taking it on the chin in late 2008. Subprime lending nearly disappeared in Canada, commercial lending books were frozen, and lending for rental properties began tightening. Some lenders have already begun making changes to their lending criteria, but if CMHC is not granted a ceiling increase we… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member
@TPFKAA – Definitely not a feverous lising pace right now. Looks like a reallocation due to start of CNY. Early in the year we saw listings much higher 10-30% y/y on a weekly basis while sales were generally 20% off last year same week. For this week – we are looking like 5% off on listings compared to last year same week and close to 30% off on sales. I'm not sure why you say there is an inflection point. The inventory is moving exactly as I have modelled and until listings start to show 20% decreases y/y we're not going to see the inventory get any better. Now – please note that I have a detail track of the old Agent Will graph numbers (which exludes most of the low volume fringes in REBGV so it does not exaclty… Read more »
patriotz
Member

@mflat:

"certain industry commentators expect Carney to raise the debt ceiling for CMHC"

Foregone conclusion. RE bubbles require continuously increasing debt just to keep prices from falling. Capping CMHC debt/guarantees would have a greater impact than the subprime meltdown in the US, which only affected the lower quality end of the mortgage market and happened a year after prices had peaked.

Note that Fannie/Freddie never had their obligations capped prior to the 2008 crisis, and that FHA had its ceiling increased at the same time.

The only question is how Flaherty is going to spin it.

ChemGuy
Guest
ChemGuy

@DEFAULT NAMEe: It's the low flow toilet, the tortuous path the siphon takes wouldn't let me get the snake into the stack nor the landlord with his professional version so neither of us could even get to the blockage.

I think we are in need of a professional with a water jet. Stupid low flows, we need a Ferguson:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL2YRDzpTL4

patriotz
Member

@Yalie:

"The government could decide to do nothing and let the private mortgage insurance industry pick up the slack."

Canada does not have a private mortgage insurance industry. It has profit-making insurers which have government guarantees.

But now that you mention it, if the government's guarantees to those insurers are not included in the legislated CMHC ceiling, they may be the way to keep the pedal to the metal while pretending that the foot is on the brake.

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