Friday Free-for-all!

It’s Friday again and that means it’s time for our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread! Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Property investor, definitely keep your day job
Mortgage pullback hints of housing crisis
Ottawa leans on banks to tighten lending
Canadas housing market: look out below
Flaherty ‘concerned’ over mortgage lending
Canada Gov exposure to mortgage lending raising alarm
Is this what Januarys housing report looks like?
Underused labour and pending housing bubble a problem for Canada
US 30 year locked in mortgages hit new record low
China limits foreigners housing mortgages

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

On a side note we’re still beta testing VancouverPeak.com as a forum replacement. It will likely replace the old VCI forum soon, so you if you’re a forum user here you may want to take a look at how it works over there. That site is registration by invite only, but if you registered for an account here before the end of January you’re probably already registered there.

VancouverPeak.com has a lot of functionality that is lacking in the current forums including uploading of txt, xls and other file formats. In addition to the forums, you can create discussion groups and new forums there and edit documents in each group.. this is similar to a wiki functionality, but with a more user friendly editing interface.

Try it out, feedback is welcome.

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jesse
Member
4 years 7 months ago

Comment from builder: "I'm glad there are 3 buyers for every project I build."

Market busts are like flooding a basement. It's amazing how much dirt there was embedded in the old carpet that floated to the surface when the water came.

observer
Guest
observer
4 years 7 months ago

here's something to chew on. The Vancouver board home price index will be eliminated. the Canadian Real Estate Association is launching their own with the board that will be brand new.

Nero
Guest
Nero
4 years 7 months ago

Anyone see the stats packages out for REBGV or FVREB?

Thanks

Many Franks
Guest
4 years 7 months ago

@observer: Got a source?

ChemGuy
Guest
ChemGuy
4 years 7 months ago
So we called our landlord last night with the first problem in 2.5 years. We've never called before as I've always fixed simple issues myself rather than the hassle however this time the toilet clogged and I couldn't clear it with plunger, chemical, or auger. So, he came over with his power auger and made a good go at it; no luck. But the story is not the toilet (which is getting a visit from his plumber tonight). What is the story is that our landlord is living in his parents basement with his wife and three kids – he… Read more »
observer
Guest
observer
4 years 7 months ago

@ Franks

toronto real estate board

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news

jesse
Member
4 years 7 months ago

January REBGV stats out February 6th. Board is changing its format, apparently. Never mind! We have paulb. WHO YOU ALL OWE A REAL (NOT VIRTUAL) BEER.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 7 months ago

@ChemGuy: Another victom of the RE pumpers and the REA marketing machine. The buyer bears much of the responsibility….but the pumpers are contributing to the destruction of lives.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
4 years 7 months ago

@ChemGuy: It's funny because my wife (who I brainwashed over real estate) posted an article on facebook with this comment:

"Hopefully in time to come, the price of housing will crush and become affordable."

To which a friend of ours (actually, she's a lawyer and probably earn decent money, own a place in Richmond and was considering bying another place in Edmonton where she recently moved) replied:

"Hoping for a crash is horrible!!! A stabilizing of the market at near zero growth – ok, but a crash? That will hurt millions of hard working families who already own property!!!"

yvr2zrh
Member
4 years 7 months ago
OMG – Did anyone else just get the new e-mail for the big new RE project in Richmond. Come on – what kind of name is the "Mandarin Residences".??? Anyhow – what a time to change the stat format. Even though we will see a change, a scoresheet format does not affect the outcome of the game. As well, it will be difficult for them to spin the message any more than they already were. And – as long as they continue to provide the same sell / list statistics, the info will be good. It's just the commentary that… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 7 months ago

@Makaya: Rule #1…keep your desires for a crash closely guarded and share only with non-owners. Rule #2…never talk about Crash Club.

Guy Smiley
Guest
Guy Smiley
4 years 7 months ago

@Chemguy

You have a good weekend too, Buzzkill 🙂

I have several friends who have bought in the last 2 years. Not speculators, just young(ish) couples who were whipped into a combination of fear and greed by the constant barrage of bullish media coverage of Vancouver RE. These will be the typical losers of the coming correction unfortunately.

Funny now how many commentators are rushing to joint the bear-parade. Everyone wants to be able to say they called it.

mflat
Member
mflat
4 years 7 months ago

Heard on News 1130 this morning that certain industry commentators expect Carney to raise the debt ceiling for CMHC.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-03/bank-

Navin R. Johnson
Guest
Navin R. Johnson
4 years 7 months ago

Default…

"@Makaya: Rule #1…keep your desires for a crash closely guarded and share only with non-owners. Rule #2…never talk about Crash Club."

funny, funny guy/girl/it's Pat

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 7 months ago

another typical bears day since 2004!

TPFKAA
Guest
TPFKAA
4 years 7 months ago

It looks like the inventory graph is coming down with a nasty inflection 🙁

Bear tears are being shed.

VMD mobile
Guest
VMD mobile
4 years 7 months ago

@mflat:
Most would expect Flaherty to raise the ceiling by some degree. The important thing is how much mortgage rule tightening will accompany that announcement…

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 7 months ago

article on toronto star says

"Meet the new jobless – your broker, your real estate agent, your insurer. This group lost ground again as the Canadian economy created a just 2,300 jobs in January, Statistics Canada says."

hmmm….

Guy Smiley
Guest
Guy Smiley
4 years 7 months ago

@TPFKAA

The drop in listings doesn't even come close to the dropping sales numbers. The only tears falling are those of all the hopefuls who thought they'd sell their overpriced real estate to the wave of eager buyers (that never showed up) during CNY. Reality is setting in.

Dante
Guest
Dante
4 years 7 months ago

"Meet the new jobless – your broker, your real estate agent, your insurer."

So sad. Could not happen to nicer bunch of people.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting
4 years 7 months ago
From the Vancouver Sun, written by a Mortgage Broker: This could change the Canadian housing and mortgage markets significantly. Raising the $600 Billion roof will not be easy politically, as Canadian citizens are on the hook if CMHC cannot afford to cover default losses. If the money supply begins to shrink, most lenders still want to keep their "AAA" business: income qualified, 20% down payment, owner occupied residences, etc. When the money supply begins to shrink, it happens on the back end. We saw this come under fire when the financial crisis started taking it on the chin in late… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member
4 years 7 months ago
@TPFKAA – Definitely not a feverous lising pace right now. Looks like a reallocation due to start of CNY. Early in the year we saw listings much higher 10-30% y/y on a weekly basis while sales were generally 20% off last year same week. For this week – we are looking like 5% off on listings compared to last year same week and close to 30% off on sales. I'm not sure why you say there is an inflection point. The inventory is moving exactly as I have modelled and until listings start to show 20% decreases y/y we're not… Read more »
patriotz
Member
4 years 7 months ago

@mflat:

"certain industry commentators expect Carney to raise the debt ceiling for CMHC"

Foregone conclusion. RE bubbles require continuously increasing debt just to keep prices from falling. Capping CMHC debt/guarantees would have a greater impact than the subprime meltdown in the US, which only affected the lower quality end of the mortgage market and happened a year after prices had peaked.

Note that Fannie/Freddie never had their obligations capped prior to the 2008 crisis, and that FHA had its ceiling increased at the same time.

The only question is how Flaherty is going to spin it.

ChemGuy
Guest
ChemGuy
4 years 7 months ago

@DEFAULT NAMEe: It's the low flow toilet, the tortuous path the siphon takes wouldn't let me get the snake into the stack nor the landlord with his professional version so neither of us could even get to the blockage.

I think we are in need of a professional with a water jet. Stupid low flows, we need a Ferguson:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL2YRDzpTL4

patriotz
Member
4 years 7 months ago

@Yalie:

"The government could decide to do nothing and let the private mortgage insurance industry pick up the slack."

Canada does not have a private mortgage insurance industry. It has profit-making insurers which have government guarantees.

But now that you mention it, if the government's guarantees to those insurers are not included in the legislated CMHC ceiling, they may be the way to keep the pedal to the metal while pretending that the foot is on the brake.

Guy Smiley
Guest
Guy Smiley
4 years 7 months ago

What about Genworth – isn't it private? Is it government guaranteed too?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 7 months ago

@Guy Smiley: The Canadian government guarantees 100% of CMHC's obligations and 90% of the private sector's obligations.

Genworth is the largest of three private-sector companies that are government-backstopped up to a C$250 billion limit. The other two are Canada Guarantee Mortgage Insurance Co. and PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. Federal legislation last year raised their cap to C$300 billion, but it is not yet in force while the government works on draft regulations

Roomy Shopper
Guest
Roomy Shopper
4 years 7 months ago
Favorite notes from today's Genworth Mortgage Insurance Canada conference call from analyst friend: “we see the slowdown in the housing market as good news,” MIC CEO Brian Hurley (yep, nothing better than falling house prices for MIC) “the housing market is beginning to show signs of a soft landing” MIC CFO and Chief Risk Officer Stuart Levings (Survival rules for mortgage insurance risk officer: Deny there is a bubble all the way up and then jump all the way to soft landing talk six weeks into the downturn) “I just want to clarify that our business has plenty of capacity… Read more »
Independentwealth
Guest
Independentwealth
4 years 7 months ago

Locked and loaded waiting for at least a 40% pullback! Us investors have been waiting for a chance at the big returns..Just needed the sheep to panic!

Independentwealth
Guest
Independentwealth
4 years 7 months ago

@Makaya

That's great news…The higher unemployment gets the better those of us with cash will do.Absolute carnage in the Canadian economy is what we need!

Makaya
Member
Makaya
4 years 7 months ago
@Independentwealth: No one wants a struggling Canadian economy or high unemployment here. Get real. Apart from the affordability problem, this bubble has created an oversized RE/construction sector which is going to get crushed during the bust, and we're all going to pay the price for it. The economy will re-balance in the long term, but that process will be painful. Don't blame it on the bears. If they had been listened to long time ago, we wouldn't be in as much trouble as we are today. I have no sympathy for the speculators (and there're lots of them), but in… Read more »
Independentwealth
Guest
Independentwealth
4 years 7 months ago

@Makaya

No way…we need Vancouver to become like Baltimore. Those with cash can get places for $30,000 and then get in on the Govt.subsidy gravy train for all those bankrupt suckers that had to go on welfare.We need Vancouver to turn into the absolute Slum it deserves to be(more crime more murders)that's when you can make real dough…Coming soon.Keep your powder dry.Best Place on Meth will back me up.
http://www.npr.org/2011/06/29/137491233/cash-is-k

chilled
Member
chilled
4 years 7 months ago

"Speaking to reporters in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Thursday, Flaherty echoed OSFI's concerns."

Can someone tell me what the fuck Flaherty is doing in Israel?? Maybe someone should read this nimrod his job description. This is assinine, and of course the mainstream media says nothing. Does Canada not have an ambassador to Israel? If so, what the fuck is Flaherty doing in Israel??

Many Franks
Guest
4 years 7 months ago

@observer: Thanks. Here’s hoping they inaugurate their new thermometer with a series of negatives.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 7 months ago

@Makaya:

Your wife's comment is an ignorant thing to put on facebook. Your wife is wishing financial hardship on others for her own gain.

chilled
Member
chilled
4 years 7 months ago

@ChemGuy:

"It’s the low flow toilet, the tortuous path the siphon takes wouldn’t let me get the snake into the stack nor the landlord with his professional version so neither of us could even get to the blockage."

=========================

Jesus, this is way worse than waiting while the elderly Chinese lady's pick through the green beans.

This is like getting drunk, then watching paint dry.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
4 years 7 months ago

How about those jobs numbers?

All those useless jobs lost in real estate, finance and insurance is fucking awesome – with any luck Vancouver will whittle down those 10,200 realtors to about 500 of the better ones in the next couple of years.

Fire the FIRE parasites and hire some people who actually do something productive.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
4 years 7 months ago

@chilled:

>>>what the fuck is Flaherty doing in Israel??<<<

What all conservatives do, he's there serving the jewish state at our expense.

VMD
Member
4 years 7 months ago

larry's #'s today:

Vancouver All Areas*

New Listings – 242

Price Changes – 56

Sold Listings – 121

*Attached & Detached – Date: 2012/02/03

VanDweller
Member
VanDweller
4 years 7 months ago

@ZRH2YVR I got something related to that. I didn’t even know my e-mail address is on “Rennie’s Marketing” list.

Wicker
Guest
Wicker
4 years 7 months ago

I got a complementary copy of Canadian Business magazine in my mailbox yesterday and the front page headline is “Crash: Why house prices are about to fall.” Here is a link to the article on their website:

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/65694–prediction-the-canadian-housing-market-will-crash

chilled
Member
chilled
4 years 7 months ago

@DEFAULT NAME:

"Your wife’s comment is an ignorant thing to put on facebook. Your wife is wishing financial hardship on others for her own gain."

Yeah right, we know how kindly us "renters" and "basement dwellers" were viewed by the other side.

Give your head a shake.

chilled
Member
chilled
4 years 7 months ago

@Best place on meth:

"What all conservatives do, he's there serving the jewish state at our expense."

I simply thought he was searching out parking for the new fighter jets. Thanks for clearing that up for me!!! LOL!!!

patriotz
Member
4 years 7 months ago

@DEFAULT NAME:

"Your wife is wishing financial hardship on others for her own gain."

Anyone who would face "financial hardship" if they are unable to sell their house or condo for what they paid for it should not be buying in the first place.

That goes for any investment. It's that simple.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 7 months ago

@patriotz:

"That goes for any investment. It’s that simple."

It would be like me putting on facebook I hope the stock market crashes so I can buy cheap stocks when your friends are buy and hold stock inventors with large investments in equities. Just no class posting it even if you hope it will happen.

Apocarypse Mao
Guest
Apocarypse Mao
4 years 7 months ago

Flaherty in Israel?

Since Israel has a huge housing bubble, maybe he's on a research mission.

Dante
Guest
Dante
4 years 7 months ago

"Flaherty in Israel?"

paying the tribute to the biggest party contributors. lovely.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
4 years 7 months ago

@DEFAULT NAME: "Your wife’s comment is an ignorant thing to put on facebook. Your wife is wishing financial hardship on others for her own gain."

Was the Canadian Business article: "Prediction: The Canadian housing market will crash" an ignorant thing to publish too? Is this journalist wishing financial hardship on others for his own gain?

Is it our fault if people have borrowed money beyond their means and are one interest rate hike away from bankruptcy?

Being prudent savers and not kool-aid drinkers has been a lonely life during this mania… Everybody is responsible for its own decision.

Nero
Guest
Nero
4 years 7 months ago

If the largest mortgage lenders are tightening rules and capping mortgages, that’s our clearest signal that the end is nigh, regardless of how the RE Boards like to spin the data.

patriotz
Member
4 years 7 months ago
@DEFAULT NAME: "It would be like me putting on facebook I hope the stock market crashes so I can buy cheap stocks when your friends are buy and hold stock inventors with large investments in equities.' I have a lot of money in the stock market. I don't have any problem with people publicly saying that they want to market to go down so they can buy low, nor do I have any problem with people selling short so they can profit if prices go down. Those are the rules of the game and if people don't like the rules… Read more »
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