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House Price Index – start the count over

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Real estate can be tricky to track stats for. There’s so much variation between different properties. Average sales prices get pushed back and forth based on the sales mix.

There are two sources for a more consistent tracking of house prices. One is the Teranet House Price Index, which tracks only properties that have at least 2 sales. This ‘sales pair’ approach tracks the effect of specific properties changing price each time they’re sold. There are two drawbacks to this index: It doesn’t track improvements to a property and it’s delayed by about 3 months.

The other approach is the REBGVs MLSlink HPI based on a hypothetical property that is averaged to specific traits: number of rooms, finished basement etc. The MLSlink HPI has been a consistent gauge of the local market since the mid 90s.

That’s changing now. Vancouver was the only market with a House Price Index, but the old index has been thrown aside for a new one from the CREA that is consistent between Vancouver, Fraser Valley Calgary, Toronto and Montreal.

For data-hounds, this means that you’ll not be able to directly link trends in the new index to earlier data. January 2012 becomes the zero month of this new system. Ladies and gentlenerds, start your graphs!

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jumpin in

interesting comments…
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/08/br…

Affordable homes, resource economies drive the West as Canada’s growth engine

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rp1

#88 @Best place on meth: It may be a once in a lifetime opportunity to pay that price for the privilege.

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Best place on meth

@Turkey:

It seems that the realtard wants us to believe that living in a 463 sqft box in skid row is a "once in a lifetime opportunity".

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Turkey

Want a laugh?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?proper…

The kicker? "Only 15 units available, so call today." Look at the building's facade, and count the number of windows on the residential floors. Yup, 15.

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Nero

The worst (or best, depending on your point of view) will be in a couple of years, when the Canada housing market is in full correction mode, down 20-30%, and that pain will be fully compounded by potentially rising bond yields in the USA, which will drive mortgage rates up further here.

If that happens, it will get super ugly.

It could be back to the Canadian peso.

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Anonymous

"Average (or mean), Median and Mode are measures of the ‘middle’ of the data set. Median is the most useful for RE transactions because it "

Actually none of them are a useful indication of anything as far as real estate goes because they represent data from sales which is often relatively homogeneous and a much to small sample size to be statistically indicative of anything related to the actual market value of a random home. It's one of the core fallacies of the RE industry but buyers get sucked in by it every day.

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Anonymous

"Canada’s mortgage party has come to an abrupt halt"

Read more:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/can…

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Best place on meth

@RippedtoShit:

You're like Garth Turner in cartoon form.

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RippedtoShit

15,000 by the 29th.

The rapid uptick in For Sale signs littering the landscape will have a telling effect.

Office chatter about plummeting condo values, and bankrupting realtors and mortgage sales blokes will sully the airwaves.

Grab some clean underwear, the shit is going to flow full force.

RJ

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RippedtoShit

it means your a Goofball, that is what it means.

i mean, yeesh, if you gotta ask….

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patriotz

@Best place on meth:
“What does this all mean?”

That the other cities encompass the suburbs while the CoV doesn’t.

What’s significant to me is that the cities with the fastest growing populations, Calgary and Edmonton, have lower prices today than 5 years ago.

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Anonymous

@Best place on meth: Of more importance would be the population of Greater Vancouver since most of the growth has happened outside the City of Van (where growth is limited due to less available development sites)

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VMD

Larry's #'s today

Vancouver All Areas*

New Listings – 265

Price Changes – 65

Sold Listings – 127

*Attached & Detached – Date: 2012/02/08

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Best place on meth

The population of Vancouver increased a measly 4.4% total in the 5 years between the 2006 and 2011 census.

Edmonton grew 11.2%, Calgary 10.9%, Ottawa 8.8%, Saskatoon 9.8%, Regina 7.7%, Kelowna 9.6%…

What does this all mean?

It means the next time you hear someone claiming that real estate prices are so high because everyone wants to live here, you should kick them in the face as hard as you can.

Those of you who are older and less limber can aim for the junk.

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patriotz

@DEFAULT NAMEe:

We don't accuse them of being realtors, simply greedbags, which of course includes almost all realtors.

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Anonymouse

@Devore:

'Everyone here speaks for themselves, including Makaya. Stop with this “bears” nonsense and converse like an adult, if you want anyone to take you seriously.'

Does that also apply to those who accuse anybody who dare argue against them of being a realtor?

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RippedtoShit

Clockbike:

now we are talking

thanks for the word from the street, that's representative of what i am hearing up there

it gets much worse from here

yokels in my office are starting to mutter about For Sale signs on the westside going up…and staying up….

it's started muchachos

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Clockbike

@Makaya:

I live in Squamish.

The Development "STUDIO SQ SQUAMISH" keeps reducing their asking price.

"Tantalus Crossing" is offering $18k off the asking price for the next 3 buyers.

"Aqua" has gone into receivership sales

A number of detached houses have been on the market since August.

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RippedtoShit

Your a total loser!!!

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Devore

@Troll:

It’s embarrassing for other bears.

Everyone here speaks for themselves, including Makaya. Stop with this "bears" nonsense and converse like an adult, if you want anyone to take you seriously.

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AG Sage

@Troll: Here's a copy of the stats package.
http://www.mikestewart.ca/vancouver-real-estate-s…

Where is the overall median? I can't seem to find it.

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patriotz

@Troll:

"It certainly refutes the theory that corrections start at the periphery and move towards the core."

That's not a theory, that's a fact. Okanagan a disaster area for years, ditto Whistler, Fraser Valley falling for some time, outer GVRD prices static while inner core continued to rise.

Those outer areas reached the "listings piling up" stage before their prices started falling, as has been reported right here on this blog.

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Makaya

@jesse: I don't know if Squamish is considered being part of the periphery, but the numbers don't look good over there for sure…

http://www.rebgv.org/statistics/graphs/SQ-APT.GIF

January 2012 numbers are horrific…

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Makaya

@Troll: you don't get it, do you? I said in my first message: "it seems to me that when prices were going up, the volatility shown in the average #s didn’t seem to bother CREA much…" Now, what's the justification being the new HPI? Here it is: "The MLS(R) HPI approach provides a less volatile measure of price than averages and medians, which can swing dramatically in response to changes in the mix of home sales from one time period to the next." It's funny that this new Index comes just as the inventory is skyrocketing and the MSM started to predict imminent housing crash, isn't it? Now, if you had followed the discussion from the beginning, you would have noticed this excellent graph posted by Jesse. It turns out that there seems to be a divergence between the old… Read more »

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jesse

@Troll: "It certainly refutes the theory that corrections start at the periphery and move towards the core."

It does add to the hypothesis that only certain locales think CNY is a big deal. Core vs periphery arguments are predicated on previous price gains on the outskirts either tracking or outpacing the core. Here we have a clear case of the opposite.

Heck some Realtors in the Fraser Valley think we're 4 years into a correction. They probably took your advice and tilted the chart. 😉

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