Piggington “capitulates”

One of my long-time favourite bloggers, Professor Piggington of San Diego, has finally decided to buy:

After the recent leg down in interest rates, monthly payments are the lowest compared to incomes and rents than they’ve been in the history of the data, and are quite dramatically below their median historical levels:

But note another consideration, which applies only to the US where you can lock in rates for the life of the mortgage:

If this outlook is correct, as I believe it is, then today’s ultra-low rates make this an ideal time to take out a chunky 30-year fixed mortgage, and to sit back and let inflation hew away at the real value of the mortgage and the monthly payments over the years to come.

So even if the buy/rent ratio in Vancouver came down to what it is now in San Diego, buying would not be as favourable, because interest rates would certainly rise if we went into a period of long-term higher inflation.

Note that the graph above compares monthly payments against per capita income (not median household income). It would appear that it is now possible to buy a SFH in San Diego on a single median income.

But of course Vancouver can’t go the way of SD, it’s surrounded by ocean, mountains, and a border… um it has the nicest weather in the country and everyone wants to live here… um…

Well it’s just different here.

Piggington.com Jumps the Shark

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Boombust
Boombust
8 years ago

"Oh, is that close to Toronto?”

You must have enjoyed widepread travel through the US.

Krazy Kanuk
Krazy Kanuk
8 years ago

@DEFAULT NAME: That's too funny! Toronto close to Van! 🙂 Well done sir!

It's funny because I've traveled quite a bit, and contrary to what Vancouverites think, about the only city that foreigners know is Toronto. When they ask where I'm from (Calgary), the second question is always "Oh, is that close to Toronto?". When I tell people I'm living in Vancouver (well…actually Richmond, but I don't expect them to know the difference), same question "Oh, is that close to Toronto?"

KK

Meh
Meh
8 years ago

A few sales isn't entirely a bad thing. It might keep fingers from the panic button. We don't want another attempt revive the market, do we?

Government and banks will do everything to soften the general blow of a real estate crash. This is because powerful people have a stake in it. But don't confuse that with any kind of compassion or concern for your typical f*cked buyers.

For the average fool, politicians in Ottawa have just five words to say: You…are…on…your…own.

ReadyToPop
ReadyToPop
8 years ago

In total, 173 sky-scrapers are being built in Toronto, the most in North America. New York is second with 96.

When the United States saw a vast housing bubble inflate and burst during the 2000s, many Canadians felt smug about the purported prudence of their financial and property markets.

Look out below. After years of lecturing America about loose lending, Canada now must confront a bubble of its own

VHB
VHB
8 years ago

Here are the Feburary numbers in past years. Also put this in the forum.

February

sell list sell/list

2001

2002 3008 4035 74.5%

2003 2760 3621 76.2%

2004 3066 3944 77.7%

2005 3068 4115 74.6%

2006 2941 4340 67.8%

2007 2859 4167 68.6%

2008 2676 5260 50.9%

2009 1480 3916 37.8%

2010 2473 4606 53.7%

2011 3097 5693 54.4%

Mean 2743 4370 62.8%

median 2900 4141 68.6%

Troll
Troll
8 years ago

@DEFAULT NAME:

Yes, from all those Conservative voters in Toronto and Vancouver, oops, there weren’t any. Oh well.

Check your stats. Cons got 45% of votes in both Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver. Unless you think a national housing correction would be limited to inner city Vancouver and TO?

jumpin in
jumpin in
8 years ago

The irony!!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-03/china-to

China will limit mortgage loans for home purchases by foreigners to stem overseas investment in its property market as part of efforts to cool prices.

JR
JR
8 years ago

A nosebleed peak has never been followed by a slow decline in this market (or any other NA that I can see). Bubble or balloon, it won't take a lot of time to deflate, if indeed air is escaping now.

Guy Smiley
Guy Smiley
8 years ago

… the upward momentum is stopped but it’ll take time to reverse.

And longer for everyone to notice/ admit it. Even now, after two solid years of consistent decline, people are buying houses in Victoria with the expectation of near-term capital gain. Of course the Times Communist continues to flog the buy-now-before-it's-too-late trash that is written for them by realtors.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

Canada Govt's Exposure To Mortgage Lending Raising Alarm

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120202-7119

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1125067–mortgag

Mortgage pullback hints of housing crisis

Mortgage brokers are taking a wait, watch and worry approach to news that CIBC’s wholesale mortgage arm, FirstLine, is no longer accepting new applications from so-called “stated-income” homebuyers.

jesse
8 years ago

@Conrad: That wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. Really, how many foreigners are there? 5 billion? That's as close to bottomless as we're going to get.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@DEFAULT NAME: …If you believe what you say then why aren’t you buying investment properties in SD? Sounds like a once in a life time cant lose opportunity….

Ya, why rent in Vancouver when you could commute from SD to Vancouver and own you own home?

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@Troll: …In the case of a visible, painful national housing correction, especially in TO and Van, you can bet there’ll be lots of political pressure to help homeowners….

Yes, from all those Conservative voters in Toronto and Vancouver, oops, there weren't any. Oh well.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@Krazy Kanuk: …I just read the first part of the economist article. Toronto is building 173 sky-scrapers and New York 96 (2nd most in North America after Toronto). So T-dot is building almost twice as many as the big apple! Ha Ha Ha!…

But you can't overlook the fact that people from all over the world want to live in Toronto because it's close to Vancouver and nobody left in the world can afford to live there.

Makaya
Makaya
8 years ago

@jesse: lol. we won't have a clear picture until at least September. I suspect the market will be boring until later this year… the upward momentum is stopped but it'll take time to reverse.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@patriotz: ..Either way he wins because he’s locked in monthly payments much lower than renting the same property….

Of course, this is true in Vancouver as well, just ask any Realtard.

Jr
Jr
8 years ago

@Conrad: Wern't you the same guy who was reporting over 200 listings for today?

Conrad
Conrad
8 years ago

@jesse:

Its just the beginning Jesse. Feb will be a really, really strong month. Foreign investment is off the charts this week…

jesse
8 years ago

@paulb.: Wow strong day! That's the best we've had all year! lol

Troll
Troll
8 years ago

@DEFAULT NAME:

Not once have you called out any of the clowns posting anti-white slurs and there have been many like Li Ka shing and that "wealthy Vancouver homeowner" idiot.

Couple of differences dimwit. One, those morons aren't serious, just silly trolls trying to get a laugh. Not like your constant, incessant hate filled diatribes. Second, those morons always getted voted down to -10 within minutes of posting. Your racist ramblings get voted up, which says a lot about the readership of this blog who clearly agree with your racist views.

That's the part you can't seem to grasp, you dumb dumb meathead. But then I shouldn't be surprised from someone who blames all his life's failings on a particular race.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
8 years ago

@901kCrackHouse:

Here's a picture of the ad.

http://www.chinahush.com/2012/02/02/hong-kong-ful

You go Hong Kong!

901kCrackHouse
901kCrackHouse
8 years ago

Interesting… even the people of hong kong are pissed off at the Chinese mainlanders who come over and take advantage of their health care. They term them "locusts".

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/Ch

I can't see they have improved the quality of life of Vancouver in any way at all, so I don't know why we tolerate this either.

paulb.
paulb.
8 years ago

New Listings 251

Price Changes 64

Sold Listings 155

TI:13447

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
8 years ago

@Makaya:

Larry's got his numbers out, highest of the year so far.

Vancouver East & West*

New Listings – 58

Back On Market Listings – 7

Price Changes – 23

Sold Listings – 43

Vancouver All Areas*

New Listings – 226

Back On Market Listings -21

Price Changes – 61

Sold Listings – 148

*Attached & Detached – Date: 2012/02/03 Time: 16:43 Pacific YatterMatters.com: Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.