The Rize Vancouver, it is your density.
A 19 storey high rise tower at Broadway and Kingsway: smart planning for dense living or harbinger of gentrifying doom?
Perhaps there is a point when you say “no thanks, that’s just the right amount of tall buildings, we want no more.”
But is this really the time for that?
I had a friend in town from the States and driving through the neighbourhood his first impression was “Huh, you’d think the corner of Broadway and Main street would be more impressive”.
Ours is certainly not the broadway of New York, it’s not even the Broadway of Portland.
Our Broadway is a bus route scattered with greasy spoons and mini-malls. Are we really going to stop development at this point?
The argument against this proposed project is that it will ruin the flavour of the neighbourhood, but can’t a real city generate a creative class that evolves with the times? Are we so fragile that a new condo tower can destroy a neighbourhoods character?Vancouver has a problem and it goes beyond housing costs. It seems very much to me like a city in it’s awkward teenage phase. It’s a pretty teenager, but so freaked out about what everyone thinks it’s afraid to take chances or be itself. It’s afraid of change and apparently can’t handle it’s alcohol.
If we really want to be a world class city it’s time for us to grow up.
Post Submitted by JPR
February 27th, 2012 at 10:20 pm 1
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Rise+homeless+Metro+Vancouver+families+alarming/6218513/story.html
We have Hope for the homeless, forget water front social housing in False Creek, build 4 times as many in Hope and put a roof over these folks!
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February 27th, 2012 at 10:41 pm 2
This is just a stone’s throw from good ol’ Kingsgate Mall. Really there’s nowhere to go but up.
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February 27th, 2012 at 10:47 pm 3
I have a hard time understanding all the fuss the current proposal is generating. It seems pretty reasonable that a 19-storey tower could appear in an area near downtown where three of Vancouver’s busiest roads meet.
If this project actually gets built, I’d consider renting in it and give one lucky investor their 2% return!
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February 27th, 2012 at 10:52 pm 4
I have no problem with the density, but I understand the developer weaseled out of rental units and art studios.
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February 27th, 2012 at 11:48 pm 5
Can anyone tell us what percentage of solds in E/W Vancouver are condos vs detached sfh? On another note i inquired about a E-Van condo listing which stated it was cash flow positive… 319k asking $1200/month income 190.00 strata fees, the realturd told me only positive if you have a large enough downpayment… no duh no dice!
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February 28th, 2012 at 12:05 am 6
Who cares about living in a world class city? I liked Vancouver a lot more before it became “world class”.
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February 28th, 2012 at 12:20 am 7
build it.
if the city needs the room, then the broadway corridor is prime density land, as is the cambie corridor (despite the whiners – what did they think was going to follow the Canada line…?)
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February 28th, 2012 at 3:47 am 8
“Who cares about living in a world class city? I liked Vancouver a lot more before it became “world class”.”
Vancouver was a much more interesting city 10+ years ago. Yaletown used to actually be a cool place with tons of little studios and niche businesses.
Vancouver is a yuppie’s wet dream now. The land of bland.
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February 28th, 2012 at 7:48 am 9
“I wonder if this will kill many of the deals in Vancouver? Do HAM come in and basically lever up their purchases with the $$$$ they have and not have to show any income? Does the bank then take this 65% mortgage and then securitize it with CMHC anyway? I have been told this is fairly significant. ”
I am convinced it will, after looking for a rental and meeting several Chinese amateur landlords who had several houses (but it seemed more like their network had several houses). With an appreciation of 10%, this was a great deal. One can even imagine gathering with a bunch of friends, and each friend takes a turn to buy a given house to another friend. The more expansive the house, the better. If things go wrong, the buyer just leaves the country. It borders on mortgage scam. But fortunately we have Cam Good to make sure that the Chinese tap keeps flowing.
There are so many houses being built right now, especially in the 2-3 million range. it seems all contractors had the same brilliant idea at the same time: buy an older rancher for 1.5 million and replace it by a monster luxury home. This segment of the market could be completely saturated in the Spring.
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February 28th, 2012 at 8:17 am 10
I happened to walk by the RAMP protest against the RIZE on the weekend. I talked to several of their representatives and it was clear they don’t oppose development at that corner. In fact, the community plan mentions a need for increased density, but the report makes it clear the 7 story Lee building is the standard. This 19 story building is completely out of character with the neighbourhood, and doesn’t represent the type of density that the community envisions.
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February 28th, 2012 at 8:39 am 11
@Bullocks: I liked Vancouver a lot more before it became “world class”.
And the sad thing is that Vancouver isn’t even considered “world class” by anyone who doesn’t live here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_class_cities
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February 28th, 2012 at 8:53 am 12
Nothing wrong with a highrise if it’s aesthetically appealing. Look at Kingsway and Knight, the complex look much better than the Flea Market they had there 10 years ago.
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February 28th, 2012 at 8:56 am 13
Single family homes within a 5 min drive of a CBD are the dwelling types that should be ‘out of character’. These boomers bought in and now they don’t want anyone else to follow. Single family homes are subsidized; they pay less per sf or per $ value in property tax than do multi-family or commercial developments. And they eat up more infrastructure per dwelling. And these fat cat subsidized homeowners treat themselves like they are the victims. Why should only the people who already live in a neighbourhood have the only say? What about the broader community who want to see more supply?
Governments created this bubble. The Feds/CMHC by increasing demand, and local govt (with these NIMBYs) by restricting supply. Its a two headed dragon, and these people are one of the heads.
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:03 am 14
@ Scott
Vancouver made it onto the map from your link regarding ‘World Class Cities’ so apparently the GaGW thinks so. Of course Edmonton is on there too so it’s kind of difficult to take it too seriously…
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:08 am 15
How can you ruin this city any more than it’s already been ruined?
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:19 am 16
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/28/youre-about-to-get-burned/
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:34 am 17
What the…..
“The housing boom has helped prop up Canada’s construction industry, which now represents 7.4 per cent of the labour force, higher than it was in the U.S. at the height of its boom. Add in other housing-related industries, such as real estate agents, mortgage brokers and insurance companies, and the sector represents a staggering 27 per cent of the Canadian workforce. In the U.S., those same numbers peaked at 23.5 per cent. “We are far more dependent directly and indirectly on this current housing boom than they were in the U.S.,” says Rabidoux. “How in the world are you going to orchestrate a soft landing?””
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:42 am 18
That area is a shithole, and this develpment is exactly what it needs…similar to what the Woodward’s building did to that prized community.
Those self-proclaimed hipsters that hang out there are one paycheck away from being homeless, if they’re not already. They like to romanticize their plight by getting involved with such protests and pretend their shitty lives are by choice.
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:42 am 19
I also had a question.
I just received an advert from Italo, my friendly neighborhood realtor. On the back he has a graph showing the rise of single family home prices. Just wondering, did single family home prices really rise by roughly 100k between December 2011 and January 2012 as he shows in his graph?
What a joke this guy is. He needs to learn how to draw a graph. His graph shows single family home prices shooting through the 1.2 million mark in January to roughly 1.25 million, yet states a price of 1.15 million. Prices are already insane enough without having to distort the graph to make them look even worse. Did anyone else get this advert in the mail?
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:49 am 20
Good research from the UK on what kind of people oppose new housing (from The Guardian, Spe 15/11:http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/15/nimbys-housing-ladder-crisis-homeowners)
“Shelter has carried out extensive research into who is most likely to object to new homes, and overwhelmingly it is those who have done well from the boom in house prices. Those who are in a worse housing position – younger people, those who don’t own, people on lower incomes – are more likely to see the need for new homes to be built in their communities, but are also less likely to have the voice to speak up for them. Nimbyism is a luxury of the housing-advantaged. Perhaps those using concern for the environment as a cover for protecting their housing wealth should ask their own children, the majority of who will struggle to achieve a comfortable and secure housing situation, whether they support building new homes?”
Nice chart here: http://england.shelter.org.uk/professional_resources/housing_insights
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:56 am 21
@arlo bundsen: the report makes it clear the 7 story Lee building is the standard
The Lee building was built 100 years ago. At the time it was the tallest building outside the downtown core and towered over it’s neighbours. For 100 years that busy corner has been recognized as ideal for high density development. Now RAMP is saying we should not have a new building taller than the Lee building. What happened to progress?
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February 28th, 2012 at 10:39 am 22
@VMD@work: There’s a lot of gold in that article.
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February 28th, 2012 at 10:49 am 23
This Rize development is far more appropriate in both location & height at 19 stories than the proposed 22-story tower in the middle of the West End. Even the revised proposal for the old church site is still 4x taller than the current zoning allows.
http://westendneighbours.wordpress.com/other-rezonings/1401-comox-street/about-1401-comox-slide-show/
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February 28th, 2012 at 11:12 am 24
Bring it on, the more they built, the harder the crash.
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February 28th, 2012 at 11:19 am 25
@900kCrackHouse:
If those are national statistics, just imagine the percentage of employment that RE must represent in Vancouver. Then imagine the indirect employment (baristas, Pilates instructors, Jaguar salesmen etc. serving house-rich yuppies). This is not going to be pretty.
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February 28th, 2012 at 11:23 am 26
I hope this is appropriate, but could anyone here recommend a good COMMERCIAL agent for a small business negotiating for a strata office? Or a more trustworthy real estate firm? Or a way to determine who is best?
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February 28th, 2012 at 12:15 pm 27
Just curious if anyone is diversifying out of the country due to anticipation of a housing bust and its impact on the economy?
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February 28th, 2012 at 12:29 pm 28
@900K
I moved my entire equity portfolio out of Canadian stocks into the U.S. about 2 months ago.
My asset mgr thinks there is about 6 months more life in canadian equities but I just couldn’t sleep at night.
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February 28th, 2012 at 12:39 pm 29
@900kCrackHouse:
“Just curious if anyone is diversifying out of the country due to anticipation of a housing bust and its impact on the economy?”
The TSX is almost all resources and financials. A Canadian RE bust will have no effect on resources (but China would be another story), and the financials are protected against downside in RE.
I’m not selling. If there is a bear market in the TSX I’ll just buy low, I have a good cash position.
Also, remember that the CAD/USD is driven mostly by the price of oil
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February 28th, 2012 at 12:43 pm 30
South of the border: city -by-city breakdown of latest Case-shiller data
Las Vegas: Prices down 8.8%, and 61% below peak.
Los Angeles: Prices down 5.2%, and 41% below peak.
Miami: Prices down 3.8%, and 51% below peak.
New York: Prices down 2.9%, and 24% below peak.
Phoenix: Prices down 1.2%, and 55% below peak.
Portland: Prices down 4%, and 29% below peak.
San Francisco: Prices down 5.4%, and 41% below peak.
Seattle: Prices down 5.6%, and 32% below peak.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/city-by-city-breakdown-of-latest-housing-data-2012-02-28
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February 28th, 2012 at 12:45 pm 31
I live in Mount Pleasant and have no problem with new condo developments being built in the neighbourhood. However, personally I think 12 stories should be the max outside of the downtown core, for purely aesthetic reasons.
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February 28th, 2012 at 1:05 pm 32
@ Sheesh #31
12 stories is a nice height, but unfortunately, most of the time 12 stories is not a very financially viable height. For concrete, 7-8 story is a max, then you have to jump to 22-25 stories. It has to do with cost of construction, elevator technology, and absorption rates. It may be worth it to build a 6-7 story building with 50 or so units. Higher than that, a developer usually needs to get up to a 100+ unit building.
City staff have certainly been pushing for these mid-rise heights (6-12 stories) as in the OV, and along Cambie, but, these mid-rise heights are more expensive to build than the typical tower and podium model.
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February 28th, 2012 at 1:22 pm 33
@Anonymous:
That was a beautiful rant, by the way.
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February 28th, 2012 at 1:27 pm 34
@Sheesh: What is it that makes 12 stories ok, but higher buildings offensive. I don’t understand- a building can be ugly or beautiful, what does height have to do with it?
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February 28th, 2012 at 1:56 pm 35
@WS: Interesting. I have started to move some of my portfolio out of Canada into the US as well. Roughly 40% in US investments / cash / Gold, and some in a stable South American country. I think it is good to diversify at this point as not sure how much better Canada can get from here relative other countries (with the exception of Europe). If oil prices sky-rocket, this will trigger a recession, so any short term rise in CDN$ will be short lived.
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February 28th, 2012 at 2:03 pm 36
@900kCrackHouse:
“Just curious if anyone is diversifying out of the country due to anticipation of a housing bust and its impact on the economy?”
For me, it’s the opposite. I’ve been investing and hiring in the US because good labor is cheep there. When the Canadian bubble pops, I’ll consider hiring here.
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February 28th, 2012 at 2:12 pm 37
Has anyone else noticed the ever increasing number of debt consolidation advertisements on the radio? i.e. Alpine credit, capital direct. One would think there is good demand for this type of service.
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February 28th, 2012 at 2:21 pm 38
Condos are being slapped together wherever they can because developers want to make money.
This has nothing to do with “gentrification”.
Just a quasi-make-me-feel-good term that developers throw around.
It’s all about profits, not making the neighbourhood a better place to live.
If we were trying to make areas more liveable, we’d see more row houses.
We’d see more parks and recreational facilities.
Not highrises on every corner.
It’s about making the smallest most expensive units possible on the cheapest land as possible.
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February 28th, 2012 at 2:56 pm 39
re: ZRH2YVR’s posts yesterday. I have yet to find any published news re: major lending rule changes. However, Canadian mortgage trends today did publish the following:
[The State of Stated Income]
A few weeks back, Bloomberg quoted Canada’s bank regulator, OSFI, as saying stated income mortgages “have some similarities to non-prime loans in the U.S.”
Just weeks before that, CMHC announced limits on bulk mortgage insurance, which lenders use to reduce risk on conventional mortgages.
Given these developments and heightened risk aversion in the industry, it’s not coincidental that mainstream lenders like TD, FirstLine, Scotiabank, Street Capital, etc. have tightened up—or abruptly eliminated—their stated income programs.
Various lenders (e.g., TD, MCAP, First National, Merix Financial, etc.) have also either increased rates for “stated” borrowers, or started charging insurance premiums on conventional “business for self” (BFS) mortgages.
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/02/the-state-of-stated-income.html
- at least some progress in the right direction..
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February 28th, 2012 at 3:01 pm 40
@Moneybags:
I’m getting more calls than ever from clients seeking referrals to this type of service. That is partially why I think the housing market is about to burst-this is the end, everyone’s tapped out. Face it, it’s over.
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February 28th, 2012 at 3:06 pm 41
@Scott:
“What is it that makes 12 stories ok, but higher buildings offensive. I don’t understand- a building can be ugly or beautiful, what does height have to do with it?”
Height makes a huge difference if you live nearby. It could make the difference between getting sunlight into your home or not.
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February 28th, 2012 at 3:33 pm 42
What’s the deal with ovaltine,
the jar is round,
the mug is round, why don’t they call it roundtine?
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February 28th, 2012 at 3:34 pm 43
Curtis ridiculous comments, possible explanations:
1. Curtis’ Dad, Fab, likes Curtis’ Jabs
2. Curtis made his only friend at a frat party he wasnt invited to, perhaps the self proclaimed “Gresko” Is intriguing to someone out there
3. Curtis goes to the library, and likes his own comments
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February 28th, 2012 at 3:41 pm 44
@pricedoutfornow: Do they own their houses?
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February 28th, 2012 at 3:47 pm 45
@Moneybags: I’ve been hearing those for a few years, but it ain’t slowing down
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February 28th, 2012 at 3:57 pm 46
I’m selling all my stocks in a month or so. I think there’s going to be another big crash this summer…this time Europe will take a back seat to negative China news. I’ll then likely load up on blue chip dividend stocks from various countries, when there’s blood in the streets, but we’ll see.
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February 28th, 2012 at 4:01 pm 47
Very simple grasshopper/grassmokers
Spot gentrification.
Get ahead of the development crowd….kiss City Hall’s butt…shove some moola in their pants/panties….add water.. stir (not necessarily in that order)…Voila !
Option nearby land as well.
Paper trail would be interesting….The “developer mafia” will break ranks and not manipulate land prices. Recall Peter Wall broke ranks and paid $120/sq ft for old Pacific Linen site years ago..and pissed off the developer cartel that wanted to keep prices around $35 /sq ft.
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February 28th, 2012 at 4:01 pm 48
@Curtis
Nice last name
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February 28th, 2012 at 4:25 pm 49
My spidey senses tell me inventory just hit 15,000. Care to confirm Paul B?
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February 28th, 2012 at 5:03 pm 50
@Seymour Data: Yeah! 15k!
If we didn’t just pass it, we’re bound to pass that mark any moment.
Therefore: 15k PARTY!!!!!
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February 28th, 2012 at 5:06 pm 51
OMG just drove down 2nd avenue )between Cambie and Main), I can’t believe the amount of new condo developments going up there, cranes littering the sky!!! hadn’t driven that road in about 5 months, it is crazy how much stuff has started up there.
That area (close to the awesome Olympic Village), is so unappealing, unless you are right on the water. Apologies to anyone that lives there:) but WTF is appealing about that area? no restaurants, no shops or grocery stores, close to Main & Terminal, super industrialist, crap area to have a dog etc… guess there is a MacDonalds and Dennys..
Seriously though, there has to be about 1000 crappy apartments that are going to hit the MLS in the next year or so
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February 28th, 2012 at 5:13 pm 52
Here are some invite codes for the http://VancouverPeak.com forum for anyone that isn’t already registered there and wants to take part in the conversation. These expire in three days and are first come first served. Here’s the registration page: http://vancouverpeak.com/register/
k059-yhhe-2vaq
z4bu-q2bu-8zr7
6bzw-n63j-y7mx
Please post a note here if you use one of these to save someone else the bother of trying a code that’s been used up. We’ll post more later.
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February 28th, 2012 at 5:15 pm 53
One more proof we are world class! Yes, ladies and gents, we made it onto the Real Housewives series! Now all those Rich Americans are gonna want to come here!!
http://www.vancouversun.com/entertainment/Real+Housewives+Vancouver+identities+revealed/6222426/story.html
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February 28th, 2012 at 5:18 pm 54
@admin:
I used the 2nd one: z4bu-q2bu-8zr7 so don’t use it anymore.
YAY! 15K partay!!!
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February 28th, 2012 at 5:26 pm 55
I mean…how big is this years CIA crop in Afghanistan?
How the hell can they justify all this construction when the writing is on the wall..seriously ?
All this does is dilute value of existing inventory.
PS: As a contingency plan..I am in the line-up for cardboard boxes under viaducts while the rest of you haggle for your granite/wood floor leakers.
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February 28th, 2012 at 5:30 pm 56
@admin: I used the third one
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February 28th, 2012 at 5:42 pm 57
@Mr Know -It -All: The developers will still be profitable even if prices drop 50%, as they see things sliding they will increase activities to build all the way down until it is no longer profitable. Just like when oil prices are falling, what do E&P’s do? Drill like crazy!!!
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February 28th, 2012 at 5:43 pm 58
#51 – Anonymous
“That area (close to the awesome Olympic Village), is so unappealing, unless you are right on the water. Apologies to anyone that lives there:) but WTF is appealing about that area? no restaurants, no shops or grocery stores, close to Main & Terminal, super industrialist, crap area to have a dog etc… guess there is a MacDonalds and Dennys..”
BOY You must be blind! There has been more foot traffic around there than ever before. There’s is/will be a London drugs, urban fare, banks, terra breads and proximately to Skytrain.
You bears are just too negative!!
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February 28th, 2012 at 6:45 pm 59
@Chem Guy:
Yeah..you may be right….if they drive the trades(labour) costs down..but then that implies they have one helluva mark-up on the shite they build.
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February 28th, 2012 at 6:50 pm 60
@space889:
If the (supposedly) richest people in Vancouver are Chinese, why aren’t any of those women anything other than white?
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February 28th, 2012 at 6:53 pm 61
Cut the music!
only one of the house wives of Vancougar is semi-decent!
hit the music!
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February 28th, 2012 at 6:59 pm 62
i used the 3rd, thanks
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February 28th, 2012 at 7:00 pm 63
woops, i meant the first
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February 28th, 2012 at 7:41 pm 64
@patriotz: “A Canadian RE bust will have no effect on resources (but China would be another story), and the financials are protected against downside in RE.”
When a credit bubble contracts in Canada the banks will be decimated. There is a lot more than insured mortgage debt on the books. And remember mortgages and other consumer debt generate a big part of their earnings which will dry up. The US banks had similar protection that CMHC provides in Canada. How did that work out?
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February 28th, 2012 at 7:43 pm 65
@Ravishing Rick: Uh, those aren’t cougars. A cougar is a MILF in her 30s or 40s who seeks out dudes in bars who are barely out enough to legally drink. These ladies are a generation older.
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February 28th, 2012 at 7:43 pm 66
@Ravishing Rick,
don’t copy my name, please!
It took me a long time to earn it
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February 28th, 2012 at 7:45 pm 67
True story…
I’m talking to a youngish lady with whom I work, and discussing buying in Vancouver – we’re both in our 30s, make about six figures a year, and she says she can’t afford to buy here. Well, technically they could afford to buy something, but they can’t afford an $800K mortgage for a shitty teardown without eating beans for the next ten years.
So I ask if her husband makes as much or more than her, to which she says yes, a bit more. At which point I tell her that THEY ARE THE 1% !!! In Canada you need a family income of greater than $196K to be in the top 1%.
There you have it folks… the top 1% can’t buy a teardown in Vancouver. What does that tell you about our market?
I tried to post this on RE Talks but they didn’t accept it. I’m convinced most of the posters over there are actually paid hacks and that their site is just a PR/marketing strategy of the UDI and/or other realturd industry groups. Guaranteed that eyesthebye character is just a paid shill posing as a new purchaser who is coordinating their social media strategy.
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February 28th, 2012 at 7:47 pm 68
I think I will invest in Whalley – Newton condos.
Maybe a 13th floor unit facing King George Hwy….
Rent it out to Movie crews wanting low – cost Zombie Movie/ Serial killer footage…
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February 28th, 2012 at 7:53 pm 69
New Listings 294
Price Changes 120
Sold Listings 179
TI:15012 Party on dudes
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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February 28th, 2012 at 8:19 pm 70
@space889:
Googling one of the housewives turns up a fortune built beginning with investment in (cue the music): Canadian Real Estate.
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February 28th, 2012 at 8:29 pm 71
@Arthur Fonzarelli:
I know of several couples who’s family income is well in the six-figures, and decided to rent rather than buy. For one thing, if anyone have half a brain, capable of independent thinking, and can actually do basic math, it isn’t hard to figure out that spending next 30 years to live in a tear-down make no financial sense at all. It’s much better off to save the downpayment over the next 15-20 years, and then still have the choices to 1) buy locally if the bubble bursts; or 2) take the money elsewhere to some real paradise and enjoy retirement life without living in rain and darkness 8 months a year.
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February 28th, 2012 at 8:42 pm 72
@admin: Registration codes went fast, so here’s five more:
hgai-gh8o-bis7
p8i4-dc0y-puyh
zq7t-fk3e-ydx5
w2f0-o9y3-ub73
lyow-cb2h-884c
As before, post here if you use them to let others know they’re taken.
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February 28th, 2012 at 8:42 pm 73
@Arthur Fonzarelli: Most of the folks I know that are doing well are in the top quintile (the top 20% or so, >$100K) – and if they weren’t in the market by 2006 they’re not in the market now. All don’t feel rich enough.
What I find interesting is that it’s causing people I know not to question the market, so much, but to question their wages … there’s more wage comparison shopping to other locations going on. (Everyone’s heard my scorn of the market, but a lot of people I know are just resigned to this being the way things are now.)
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February 28th, 2012 at 8:47 pm 74
Copied from PaulB’s number
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:10 pm 75
@Arthur Fonzarelli: eyesthebye is a middle-aged social worker. I’m not kidding. He has no direct connection to real estate. People in this city are THAT demented.
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:19 pm 76
Just shy of 50% S/L on the month. Kinda depressing. I was hoping for worse.
@Patriotz: you really think the banks come out of this relatively unscathed?
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:35 pm 77
@Flip Flop: Sorry for your disappointment.
Although after waiting for 7 years I would think you would be used to it? no?
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:36 pm 78
Patriotz: you really think the banks come out of this relatively unscathed?
Why would the banks take a major hit? The vast vast majority of their mortgages are CMHC insured which means they are off the hook on defaults. Their earnings will def take a hit due to the associated economic slow down from a major RE sell off but I don’t think it will be anything like we saw in the US.
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February 28th, 2012 at 9:40 pm 79
@Anonymous:
“And remember mortgages and other consumer debt generate a big part of their earnings which will dry up.”
My understanding is that banks make almost next to nothing on mortgages. When I talked to one of my friends that is a financial advisers at one of the local banks they reported that the banks make $60-$70/month/$100k of mortgage loans. They said that the interest rate is superficially low (not sure why) and they pointed at loans to businesses (6%-7%) as to where the “real” interest should be. I’m not sure how much to trust this argument but I am keeping it in the back of my mind when assessing mortgage interest rates.
My friend also pointed out that most of the money that banks make is from interest on credit cards and lines of credit. I am inclined to believe that the meager returns on mortgage loans combined with the worry that clients will stop making use of the more profitable CC and lines of credit “instruments” are pushing the banks to request the government does something about the housing market.
As an aside my friend mentioned that the credit card business might be in trouble – not as much because people can’t pay but because technological advances are going to make the banks obsolete. They said the bank brought in experts with presentations on how in the future people will use their cell-phones to pay everywhere they used their CC (it’s already like this in Japan). And in the process bypass the bank’s income stream. It will be interesting to see how this develops.
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February 28th, 2012 at 10:08 pm 80
“pushing the banks to request the government does something about the housing market.”
good grief. one would think they’ve already done too much.
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February 28th, 2012 at 10:28 pm 81
@Flip Flop
Sale to list will come under 50 which is terrible for Feb. 2009 was worse but 2008 was better (which was a terrible year even before the credit crisis hit). All the stats right now are point towards the market being worst of past 15 years in about 4-6 weeks. This includes the following stats – which we I track and for which we will even be worse than 2009.
1.) YTD Sale/List
2.) MOI
3.) Total Inventory
With record inventory, record MOI, and record low Sale/List and the moementum being that month is worse than the previous . . . I’m sure this market will take off to record new highs so you better buy before you’re priced out. Never been a better time to buy. . . sure.
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February 28th, 2012 at 10:44 pm 82
@McLovin: “Why would the banks take a major hit?”
People who are stretched out on mortgages will default on unsecured debt such as credit card debt and lines of credit first. Next they will stop paying car payments and other loans for things like boats, rvs, etc. They will not be buying mutual funds. That is just for consumers. Businesses will go bankrupt, especially those linked to real estate. Developers will default on construction loans. People and businesses will not be able to or want to borrow anymore. Earnings will go down for banks, so will the stocks. There will be lots of cock roaches coming out from under the carpet.
“I don’t think it will be anything like we saw in the US.”
Just look at bank stocks in 2008. The main difference between Canada vs the US was Canada reflated the RE bubble where the US couldn’t. Unless the bubble can keep inflating the banks are toast. If you believe the bubble can keep on inflating you may as well go all in on real estate.
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February 28th, 2012 at 11:25 pm 83
@VanDweller: Yea rumour has it that MC has partnered with apple for a built in proximity payment system in the iPhone. Think about it, your phone has a near field sensor to purchase by credit/debit but the keypad is the phone – no more spoofing cards
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February 28th, 2012 at 11:27 pm 84
If being in the 1% means making $200,000 per year (before tax), it means being able to afford a $600,000 mortgage. Good luck with that to find a house that can shelter two kids, in Vancouver. But may be we should feel happy that we can afford a house in Surrey ?!?!?!?
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February 29th, 2012 at 2:36 am 85
@Flip Flop:
“you really think the banks come out of this relatively unscathed?”
The banks took a bigger hit from the US bust and financial crisis than they will from a Canadian bust.
They’re still around aren’t they?
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February 29th, 2012 at 8:31 am 86
@Scott: The higher you go, the more shadows are cast on all the shorter buildings in the surrounding areas. Not a huge deal if it’s all tall buildings, but one tall on amidst a sea of shorter ones has a very large impact.
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February 29th, 2012 at 9:59 am 87
@Anonymous:
Hmm, so “banks toast” or “bubble forever”? Are those our only remaining choices? Do I still have a life line left?
Canadian banks will not be “toast”. They will be fine. Sure, their share price will take a hit, and probably remain lower than they are today for some time. The banks however, aren’t going anywhere.
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February 29th, 2012 at 5:02 pm 88
@VanDweller: ….They said the bank brought in experts with presentations on how in the future people will use their cell-phones to pay everywhere they used their CC (it’s already like this in Japan). And in the process bypass the bank’s income stream. It will be interesting to see how this develops. ….
Not sure this is any difference than somebody offering yet another ‘credit card’ to pay for stuff, the difference in this case – you’ll be paying outrageous interest to your cell phone company instead of your bank. In any case, new large players in the ‘payment’ market should, in theory, be good from a competition point of view, but have you ever wondered: with the big players that are already in the credit card business, why rates aren’t competitive already?
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February 29th, 2012 at 5:08 pm 89
@jumpin in: …If being in the 1% means making $200,000 per year (before tax), it means being able to afford a $600,000 mortgage. Good luck with that to find a house that can shelter two kids, in Vancouver. But may be we should feel happy that we can afford a house in Surrey ?!?!?!? …
I think there’s something wrong with your math. Let’s say $200k before tax is $140k after tax or about $12k per month. A $600k mortgage would, at current rates, be about $3k per month. Are you suggesting that’s the max a bank would let you cover on an income of $12k per month? Seems mighty low to me.
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May 18th, 2012 at 10:30 pm 90
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