opinion

The Rize Vancouver, it is your density.

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A 19 storey high rise tower at Broadway and Kingsway: smart planning for dense living or harbinger of gentrifying doom?

Perhaps there is a point when you say “no thanks, that’s just the right amount of tall buildings, we want no more.”

But is this really the time for that?

I had a friend in town from the States and driving through the neighbourhood his first impression was “Huh, you’d think the corner of Broadway and Main street would be more impressive”.

Ours is certainly not the broadway of New York, it’s not even the Broadway of Portland.

Our Broadway is a bus route scattered with greasy spoons and mini-malls.  Are we really going to stop development at this point?

The argument against this proposed project is that it will ruin the flavour of the neighbourhood, but can’t a real city generate a creative class that evolves with the times?  Are we so fragile that a new condo tower can destroy a neighbourhoods character?

Vancouver has a problem and it goes beyond housing costs.  It seems very much to me like a city in it’s awkward teenage phase.  It’s a pretty teenager, but so freaked out about what everyone thinks it’s afraid to take chances or be itself.  It’s afraid of change and apparently can’t handle it’s alcohol.

If we really want to be a world class city it’s time for us to grow up.

 

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Anonymous

@jumpin in: …If being in the 1% means making $200,000 per year (before tax), it means being able to afford a $600,000 mortgage. Good luck with that to find a house that can shelter two kids, in Vancouver. But may be we should feel happy that we can afford a house in Surrey ?!?!?!? …

I think there’s something wrong with your math. Let’s say $200k before tax is $140k after tax or about $12k per month. A $600k mortgage would, at current rates, be about $3k per month. Are you suggesting that’s the max a bank would let you cover on an income of $12k per month? Seems mighty low to me.

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Anonymous

@VanDweller: ….They said the bank brought in experts with presentations on how in the future people will use their cell-phones to pay everywhere they used their CC (it’s already like this in Japan). And in the process bypass the bank’s income stream. It will be interesting to see how this develops. ….

Not sure this is any difference than somebody offering yet another ‘credit card’ to pay for stuff, the difference in this case – you’ll be paying outrageous interest to your cell phone company instead of your bank. In any case, new large players in the ‘payment’ market should, in theory, be good from a competition point of view, but have you ever wondered: with the big players that are already in the credit card business, why rates aren’t competitive already?

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Devore

@Anonymous:

Unless the bubble can keep inflating the banks are toast. If you believe the bubble can keep on inflating you may as well go all in on real estate.

Hmm, so “banks toast” or “bubble forever”? Are those our only remaining choices? Do I still have a life line left?

Canadian banks will not be “toast”. They will be fine. Sure, their share price will take a hit, and probably remain lower than they are today for some time. The banks however, aren’t going anywhere.

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jojomalone

@Scott: The higher you go, the more shadows are cast on all the shorter buildings in the surrounding areas. Not a huge deal if it’s all tall buildings, but one tall on amidst a sea of shorter ones has a very large impact.

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patriotz

@Flip Flop:
“you really think the banks come out of this relatively unscathed?”

The banks took a bigger hit from the US bust and financial crisis than they will from a Canadian bust.

They’re still around aren’t they?

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jumpin in

If being in the 1% means making $200,000 per year (before tax), it means being able to afford a $600,000 mortgage. Good luck with that to find a house that can shelter two kids, in Vancouver. But may be we should feel happy that we can afford a house in Surrey ?!?!?!?

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YLTN @ Work

@VanDweller: Yea rumour has it that MC has partnered with apple for a built in proximity payment system in the iPhone. Think about it, your phone has a near field sensor to purchase by credit/debit but the keypad is the phone – no more spoofing cards

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Anonymous

@McLovin: “Why would the banks take a major hit?” People who are stretched out on mortgages will default on unsecured debt such as credit card debt and lines of credit first. Next they will stop paying car payments and other loans for things like boats, rvs, etc. They will not be buying mutual funds. That is just for consumers. Businesses will go bankrupt, especially those linked to real estate. Developers will default on construction loans. People and businesses will not be able to or want to borrow anymore. Earnings will go down for banks, so will the stocks. There will be lots of cock roaches coming out from under the carpet. “I don’t think it will be anything like we saw in the US.” Just look at bank stocks in 2008. The main difference between Canada vs the US was… Read more »

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ZRH2YVR

@Flip Flop

Sale to list will come under 50 which is terrible for Feb. 2009 was worse but 2008 was better (which was a terrible year even before the credit crisis hit). All the stats right now are point towards the market being worst of past 15 years in about 4-6 weeks. This includes the following stats – which we I track and for which we will even be worse than 2009.

1.) YTD Sale/List
2.) MOI
3.) Total Inventory

With record inventory, record MOI, and record low Sale/List and the moementum being that month is worse than the previous . . . I’m sure this market will take off to record new highs so you better buy before you’re priced out. Never been a better time to buy. . . sure.

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Anonymous

“pushing the banks to request the government does something about the housing market.”

good grief. one would think they’ve already done too much.

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VanDweller

@Anonymous: “And remember mortgages and other consumer debt generate a big part of their earnings which will dry up.” My understanding is that banks make almost next to nothing on mortgages. When I talked to one of my friends that is a financial advisers at one of the local banks they reported that the banks make $60-$70/month/$100k of mortgage loans. They said that the interest rate is superficially low (not sure why) and they pointed at loans to businesses (6%-7%) as to where the “real” interest should be. I’m not sure how much to trust this argument but I am keeping it in the back of my mind when assessing mortgage interest rates. My friend also pointed out that most of the money that banks make is from interest on credit cards and lines of credit. I am inclined to… Read more »

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McLovin

Patriotz: you really think the banks come out of this relatively unscathed?

Why would the banks take a major hit? The vast vast majority of their mortgages are CMHC insured which means they are off the hook on defaults. Their earnings will def take a hit due to the associated economic slow down from a major RE sell off but I don’t think it will be anything like we saw in the US.

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Conrad

@Flip Flop: Sorry for your disappointment.

Although after waiting for 7 years I would think you would be used to it? no?

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Flip Flop

Just shy of 50% S/L on the month. Kinda depressing. I was hoping for worse.

: you really think the banks come out of this relatively unscathed?

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watcher

@Arthur Fonzarelli: eyesthebye is a middle-aged social worker. I’m not kidding. He has no direct connection to real estate. People in this city are THAT demented.

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good-format

Copied from PaulB’s number http://www.laurenandpaul.ca Date Listing Price(+-) Sold Inv Inv(+-) Feb 1 305 74 38 13,368 Feb 2 251 64 155 13,447 79 Feb 3 249 56 122 13,548 101 Feb 6 325 82 113 13,691 143 Feb 7 281 70 140 13,793 102 Feb 8 516 138 214 14,013 220 Feb 10 234 63 94 14,108 95 Feb 13 314 106 133 14,187 79 Feb 14 281 85 147 14,273 86 Feb 15 254 60 112 14,365 92 Feb 16 252 94 110 14,411 46 Feb 17 225 84 148 14,436 25 Feb 20 317 133 141 14,526 90 Feb 22 239 96 135 14,664 138 Feb 23 222 67 108 14,709 45 Feb 24 220 88 112 14,775 66 Feb 27 294 129 107 14,931 156 Feb 28 294 120 179 15,012 81 Total 4,779 1,609 2,308… Read more »

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Absinthe

@Arthur Fonzarelli: Most of the folks I know that are doing well are in the top quintile (the top 20% or so, >$100K) – and if they weren’t in the market by 2006 they’re not in the market now. All don’t feel rich enough.
What I find interesting is that it’s causing people I know not to question the market, so much, but to question their wages … there’s more wage comparison shopping to other locations going on. (Everyone’s heard my scorn of the market, but a lot of people I know are just resigned to this being the way things are now.)

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admin

@admin: Registration codes went fast, so here’s five more:

hgai-gh8o-bis7

p8i4-dc0y-puyh

zq7t-fk3e-ydx5

w2f0-o9y3-ub73

lyow-cb2h-884c

As before, post here if you use them to let others know they’re taken.

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Raz

@Arthur Fonzarelli:

I know of several couples who’s family income is well in the six-figures, and decided to rent rather than buy. For one thing, if anyone have half a brain, capable of independent thinking, and can actually do basic math, it isn’t hard to figure out that spending next 30 years to live in a tear-down make no financial sense at all. It’s much better off to save the downpayment over the next 15-20 years, and then still have the choices to 1) buy locally if the bubble bursts; or 2) take the money elsewhere to some real paradise and enjoy retirement life without living in rain and darkness 8 months a year.

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TPFKAA

@space889:

Googling one of the housewives turns up a fortune built beginning with investment in (cue the music): Canadian Real Estate.

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paulb.

New Listings 294
Price Changes 120
Sold Listings 179

TI:15012 Party on dudes

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

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Mr . Know -It -All

I think I will invest in Whalley – Newton condos.

Maybe a 13th floor unit facing King George Hwy….

Rent it out to Movie crews wanting low – cost Zombie Movie/ Serial killer footage…

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Arthur Fonzarelli

True story… I’m talking to a youngish lady with whom I work, and discussing buying in Vancouver – we’re both in our 30s, make about six figures a year, and she says she can’t afford to buy here. Well, technically they could afford to buy something, but they can’t afford an $800K mortgage for a shitty teardown without eating beans for the next ten years. So I ask if her husband makes as much or more than her, to which she says yes, a bit more. At which point I tell her that THEY ARE THE 1% !!! In Canada you need a family income of greater than $196K to be in the top 1%. There you have it folks… the top 1% can’t buy a teardown in Vancouver. What does that tell you about our market? I tried to… Read more »

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Ravishing Alex

@Ravishing Rick,

don’t copy my name, please!

It took me a long time to earn it

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