US housing market still deflating
City by city data for US markets is just out showing how much prices fell in the year and how far they’ve come down since the market top. Here’s what last year looked like in some major US markets:
South of the border: city -by-city breakdown of latest Case-shiller data
Las Vegas: Prices down 8.8%, and 61% below peak.
Los Angeles: Prices down 5.2%, and 41% below peak.
Miami: Prices down 3.8%, and 51% below peak.
New York: Prices down 2.9%, and 24% below peak.
Phoenix: Prices down 1.2%, and 55% below peak.
Portland: Prices down 4%, and 29% below peak.
San Francisco: Prices down 5.4%, and 41% below peak.
Seattle: Prices down 5.6%, and 32% below peak.
Remember, it’s not a bubble, it’s a balloon. Balloons don’t pop, they deflate. Slowly over the course of many years.
Hat tip to VMD for the link.
February 28th, 2012 at 10:22 pm 1
you dont have to do this to comfort your parents that they were homeonwers became renters.
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February 28th, 2012 at 10:26 pm 2
we need some of that here! 30% to 40% would be good…
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February 28th, 2012 at 11:09 pm 3
A friend and I were chatting this evening about insane housing prices in Vancouver and how it’s so much cheaper to rent than buy the equivalent unit. When I mentioned waiting for the correction, though, he was quick to point out that it’s never going to happen, just like it never happened in the US. He told me that prices only went down in undesirable areas and prices in the nice neighbourhoods are still at peak. Does anyone have any data that proves him wrong?
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February 28th, 2012 at 11:13 pm 4
@Hibernating Renter: Uh…this topic lists 9 cities that are all considered desirable…check the numbers
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February 28th, 2012 at 11:50 pm 5
@Hibernating Renter:
I quite liked Miami beach when I was there over a year ago.
here’s the Trulia home median sales price graph for last 10 years (you can search all cities/neighborhoods)
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Miami_Beach-Florida/market-trends/
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February 29th, 2012 at 2:03 am 6
@Hibernating Renter: Vancouver is full of “undesirable” areas”, just like all those cities.
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February 29th, 2012 at 2:16 am 7
@ hibernating renter:
I think your friend is full of crap.
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February 29th, 2012 at 2:43 am 8
@Hibernating Renter:
“He told me that prices only went down in undesirable areas and prices in the nice neighbourhoods are still at peak. Does anyone have any data that proves him wrong?”
http://www.forbes.com/2011/03/04/celebrity-foreclosures-real-estate-forbeslife.html
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February 29th, 2012 at 3:09 am 9
@Hibernating Renter: Based on some Zillow searching some areas of US metros decreased markedly less than others. For example parts of LA and SF are off their 2006 peaks by about 10-15% or so. That’s not insubstantial — it was 6 years ago so in real terms that’s quite a bit more — but it puts into context how painful price drops were in other areas of the city.
It’s also a false argument — buying a low-yielding asset is still buying a low-yielding asset. That it maintains its capital is beside the point. It’s like saying that I’m glad I have type 2 diabetes instead of terminal cancer. I’d rather not have either.
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February 29th, 2012 at 5:12 am 10
Queen Anne in Seattle, which would be a peer of Kerrisdale, is down about the same % as the Seattle metro as a whole:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3273-Conkling-Pl-W-Seattle-WA-98119/49014958_zpid/
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February 29th, 2012 at 6:12 am 11
@3 Hibernating Renter: Make your friend sit down and watch all three parts of “CSSA 8th Annual Conference – Dr. Chris Thornberg” on YouTube. Have him pay particular attention to the discussion of why certain areas did better than others and his segue into the ethics of the National Association of Realtors.
Thornberg, at the time with Berkeley, was one of the lone public voices calling a California bubble in 2006. The data analysis and reasoning set out in his Economics Roundtable speech are still a gold standard on the subject. The arguments are still as sharp and contrarian today.
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February 29th, 2012 at 8:35 am 12
oh yippee…
http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/item/1066-report-chinese-investors-remain-focused-on-to-vancouver
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February 29th, 2012 at 9:02 am 13
Teranet index is published for December.
Vancouver:
YoY – +8.21%
MoM – -0.31% – this is -3.72% per year
Victoria:
YoY – +0.32%
MoM – -0.80% – -9.6% yearly decline, ouch!
The graph shows beautifully formed “head and shoulders”.
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February 29th, 2012 at 9:22 am 14
@Anonymous:
Read the last four sentences of that article that relate to BC RE. Not all that rosy.
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February 29th, 2012 at 9:24 am 15
WTF?!?!
http://www.citypoint.ca/
zero mortgage payments
zero strata fees
zero property taxes
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February 29th, 2012 at 9:28 am 16
@jumping in: I know I’m a snob, but they’d have to pay me to live in Surrey.
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February 29th, 2012 at 9:29 am 17
I am sorry, but this article (http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/item/1066-report-chinese-investors-remain-focused-on-to-vancouver)
is just another desperate attempt at pumping. They do not bring any solid facts or statistics.
As for “desirable” neighborhoods, I do not understand your friend. To me a “desirable” neighborhoods is a place where I can AFFORD a house, that is safe and not too far from my job. If it is not affordable, it is not desirable. It is important for me to stay away from people who can through 2 to 3 millions at a house: we usually do not have much in common.
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February 29th, 2012 at 9:40 am 18
@jesse:
True. Actually 50% of Vancouver in undesireable. When people talk about the best city in the world, they are talking only about the part of the city West of Main Street.
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February 29th, 2012 at 9:45 am 19
@WFT?: I thought to a real Vancouverite, it’s really west of Oak or even Granville???
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February 29th, 2012 at 10:17 am 20
@jumping in: No price cuts here!
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February 29th, 2012 at 10:47 am 21
Vancouver is officially World Class. Real House Wives series is now in Vancouver. One of the wives (Reiko MacKenzie) who’s hobby is driving Ferraris is married to a notorious gangster Sun News Lal. He was tried for murder a few years back in the infamous Gillian Guess trial.
The only way the series could find an affluent house wife in Vancouver was to get one married to a gangster. Most other house wives in Vancouver are working 2 jobs to make the mortgage payments.
http://arts.nationalpost.com/2012/02/28/real-housewives-of-vancouver-will-debut-on-april-4/
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February 29th, 2012 at 10:50 am 22
“buyers’ markets in Vancouver and Victoria.”
Would be nice if the FP could find someone other than the CREA to comment on prices, but at least they got this comment right.
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February 29th, 2012 at 11:06 am 23
@WFT?: “50% of Vancouver in undesireable”
Ergo… big price drops! Let the detached westside do as they may, it was stratospheric for most people 10 years ago.
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February 29th, 2012 at 11:08 am 24
@Anonymous:
“Most other house wives in Vancouver are working 2 jobs to make the mortgage payments.”
Housewives don’t go to work, by definition.
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February 29th, 2012 at 11:13 am 25
@WFT?: “Actually 50% of Vancouver in undesireable.”
And about 90% of the remaining parts of Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley are also undesirable. In the busts of the past the Westside did not get spared due to desirability. The British Properties were one of the hardest hit in percentage terms in the 1980s bust. Some places in West Van lost up to 2/3 value.
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February 29th, 2012 at 11:19 am 26
@Anonymouse: “Housewives don’t go to work, by definition.”
Incorrect. They just manage the house. Besides that in the show most of them do work.
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February 29th, 2012 at 11:41 am 27
Tragic stories from the US economic downturn
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-29/wall-street-bonus-withdrawal-means-trading-aspen-for-cheap-chex.html
“I feel stuck,” Schiff said. “The New York that I wanted to have is still just beyond my reach.”
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February 29th, 2012 at 11:45 am 28
@Anonymous:
“Incorrect. They just manage the house. ”
I’m not trying to get into a debate about whether or not housework is work or not, because obviously it most certainly is. But it’s not a paid job, which is what I meant.
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February 29th, 2012 at 12:00 pm 29
90 000 hair cut:
http://www.vancouverresidence.com/30351-175-e-48th-ave.html
$839,000
MLS®: V932763 For Sale: $749,000
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February 29th, 2012 at 12:31 pm 30
oh man, gold.
check this listings site:
http://www.vancouverresidence.com/mls_listings.html
scroll down until you find
175 E 48th Ave, Vancouver, BCV5W 2C7 @ $839,000
then look two listings down and you’ll see the samehouse @ $749,000
the difference that warrants the 90K increase seems to be a bit of paint added to the upper right of the house and the removal of the garbage bag on the porch.
ace
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February 29th, 2012 at 12:34 pm 31
My concern about this continuing decrease in the US house market is that it appears to be setting them up for an increase in business. My job here in Canada could very well be done by an American faciliy within our own company, and now the US is releasing information that only seems to confirm that their economy is starting to finally grow again. A high Canadian dollar and an extremely high cost of living (housing)combine to make me less competitive against my counterparts in the US. They can agree to take lower compensation and still have a nicer house (better standard of living) than I… my productivity levels are comparable or better when comparing apples to apples, but I get less bang for my buck. Housing prices must come down to ensure that Canada is still competitive on the international stage.
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February 29th, 2012 at 12:39 pm 32
@gorky
Spring 2011: 749 k
Januray 2012: 839 k
by mid february 2012: back to 749 k
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February 29th, 2012 at 1:19 pm 33
Got this e-mail today. 4 Cities on Fire? I assume he isn’t referring to this months MacLean’s cover.
“Past member of the Fraser Valley Development Institute you are invited:
Vancouver/ FV Market Market Update.
4 Cities on fire! Watch the Money flow your direction!
Special study: Low or High Selling Commission does it put more$$ in your pocket?
All attendees get the Conclusive reports showing the benefits of higher sale prices for a higher commission, less days on market and higher sold rates.
If 75%- 85% of all the high end sales in 2011 came from new Chinese Money, then how many sales will you get this year? Billions of new money came into Vancouver last year setting world price increase records.. What are you advising your clients this year?
Syndicated Expiry Program … are you in?
Expert Panel Open Forum
Vancouver Real Estate Market Webinar Part 3
4 Cities on fire! Watch the Money flow your direction!
Date: Thursday March 1 8:30 am
If you wish no more RE/MAX market updates please reply Remove Me.. and se will sorely miss you :
Bill Coughlin, Realtor and Lifestyle Consultant”
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February 29th, 2012 at 1:22 pm 34
Reposting link from comment on vreaa:
http://www.lse.co.uk/FinanceNews.asp?ArticleCode=iy2odj2s99c1jyr&ArticleHeadline=More_Chinese_buy_property_abroad__Colliers
“BEIJING, Feb 28 (Reuters) – Chinese mainlanders account for 20-40 percent of foreign property investors to date in Vancouver, Toronto, London and Singapore, a new report from real estate consultants Colliers International said on Tuesday.”
So only 20-40% of foreign property investors are Chinese. And foreign property investors make up a tiny fraction of the market as a whole. So is the Vancouver market being driven by mainland Chinese? Possibly, in certain neighbourhoods. In general, probably not.
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February 29th, 2012 at 1:37 pm 35
But Vancouver SFH up 10% plus,annually,Bears what can u say?
Chinese purchasing power is invincible !!!!!
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February 29th, 2012 at 1:53 pm 36
@WFT?:
“True. Actually 50% of Vancouver in undesireable”
talking like a true landless and price-out renter! oh wait, you are one.
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February 29th, 2012 at 2:03 pm 37
Sorry, just testing to see if you’re all awake! The quote is actually about Seattle, circa late 2006.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2003241541_appreciation03.html
Which is a surprising risk assessment by the mortgage insurer, because SF in general, and many SF areas in particular, held out a long time, SF was right up there with Seattle as “little chance of decline”.
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February 29th, 2012 at 2:20 pm 38
@Devore:
well, you just dont see it. remain a renter for the rest of your life then.
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February 29th, 2012 at 2:27 pm 39
Flaherty announced he will release the next budget on March 29th calling it a “jobs-and-growth budget.”
Will there be any CMHC rule changes before then?
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February 29th, 2012 at 2:30 pm 40
@Devore:
“The quote is actually about Seattle, circa late 2006.”
And he was wrong even then, as Seattle had seen a protracted bust (known as the Boeing Bust) in the 1970′s.
But when it comes to talking up bubbles, facts are strictly optional.
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February 29th, 2012 at 3:17 pm 41
@patriotz: The problem with most price charts is that the latest highs tend to dwarf the previous ones, flattening out what used to be a decidedly non-straight line. The busts of the 80s would still send shivers down people’s spines a few years ago, but now it just looks like a seasonal dip. I think real price charts work a bit better.
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February 29th, 2012 at 4:01 pm 42
Noteworthy…
http://www.goodmanreport.com/content/364.pdf
This West End rental building was owned by private investor then bought in 2007 by Wall & Redekop Corp, renovated (leaky) and went back to the rental business. Now 3 years after all apartments are on sale ranging from 380K – 530K, not sure about 2 penthouses though. I can’t see any online advertising for it but in front of the building is a huge billboard with unit’s prices, contact and usual sales pitch.
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February 29th, 2012 at 4:58 pm 43
Globeand Mail Report on Business march 2012:
Front page= why you should sell your house
page 16: interviews of bearish people (-2% to -10%)
Also:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/pictures-of-irelands-abandoned-housing/article2354008/
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February 29th, 2012 at 4:59 pm 44
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/home-price-index-falls-in-december/article2353809/
Canadian home resale prices dropped in December from November, the second straight monthly decline, as small drops in high-priced Toronto and Vancouver provided a further sign of a cooling market, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index showed on Wednesday.
The index, which measures price changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, showed overall prices slid 0.2 per cent in December from November, but were up 6.8 per cent from a year earlier.
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February 29th, 2012 at 5:13 pm 45
Sunshine Coast Feb 21st-28th
“Our current market is continuing to present challenges. Sellers are competing hard for Buyers,while Buyers are wondering if this is the right time to buy. What is the answer? Real estate decisions are highly personal. As professionals, we follow the market every day. We can help
by ensuring you receive the best, most up-to-date information available.”
SALES THIS WEEK: 8 [SUNSHINE COAST, ALL BROKERS]
DETACHED 3
ATTACHED 4
LAND 1
TOTAL 8
NEW LISTINGS THIS WEEK: 39
CURRENT LISTINGS: 1040
DET’D SALES/LISTING RATIO: 29 SALES ÷ 515 LIST = 5.6%
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February 29th, 2012 at 5:14 pm 46
@Laibach:
Nice touch with the moss patina on the balconies.
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February 29th, 2012 at 5:32 pm 47
@southseacompany:
I should contact Mr. Coughlin to ask what effect buying RE in Vancouver right now would have on my lifestyle. I bet I know the answer…
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February 29th, 2012 at 6:53 pm 48
that realtor would probably not be too happy to know I’m sharing his spam e-mail Sunshine Coast stats on a Bear Blog…but whatever
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February 29th, 2012 at 6:56 pm 49
@jumpin in:
“However, poor planning decisions and the global recession have resulted in a large number of estates being abandoned, unoccupied or unfinished”
They just built too damn much housing. The global recession simply resulted in some of the housing being unfinished rather than finished and unoccupied.
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February 29th, 2012 at 7:18 pm 50
@patriotz: too much housing? are you stupid from birth or what? then why did you have to run all the way across the country just to find a rental?
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February 29th, 2012 at 7:37 pm 51
@default:
The article was about Ireland.
I’ve known potted plants with more neuronal connections than you.
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February 29th, 2012 at 7:38 pm 52
@Patiently Waiting: Aww poor guy had to sell his Porsche … here comes the wahhhmbulance
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February 29th, 2012 at 7:57 pm 53
New Listings 239
Price Changes 112
Sold Listings 145
TI:14907
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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February 29th, 2012 at 8:02 pm 54
@jumping in: I think RS1 zoning creates a problem,It means you can not construct side by side duplex here and you can not create separate entrance door.It’s good to buy for living but not good for investment purpose.In other words, lot face 32 is not enough to make desirable house like expansion of rooms,bathrooms and kitchen,you gotta give up a room or two to expand kitchen or to make extra bathroom.
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February 29th, 2012 at 8:03 pm 55
For fun, I just checked out what 650K will buy in North Van and then in Scottsdale. For 650K, you can get a 2 bdrm, 2 bath townhome on 27th street in North Van that’s about 900 sq ft.
For the same price, you can buy a Toll Brothers 5300 sq ft mansion in Scottsdale with a private pool. Oh yeah, and the weather is much nicer in Scottsdale.
Sure, sure, sure, Vancouver admittedly has some benefits over Scottsdale (a few, not many though). However, 900 sq ft v. 5300 sq. ft? Come on!
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February 29th, 2012 at 8:04 pm 56
Captain Garth is predicting some significant mortgage and lending rule changes by month end (either in the budget or before)
the market is setting up for a major shitkicking.
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February 29th, 2012 at 8:41 pm 57
@RippedtoShit:
Even if the rules change will preapprovals be valid for 90 days? Or will they have to close before they take effect? I know it’s not been that long since the last change but I can’t remember!
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February 29th, 2012 at 9:30 pm 58
Enough is fcuking enough. Found out this morning I have to move again. My stupid mistake for not setting a 2nd lease. They are selling and cashing out – can’t blame them. They are friends of my brothers and gave us an indication they were holding long-term. SO STUPID OF ME!!! A 2 year old, prego wife, new job – timing could not be worse!
But seriously, I make good money(top 5% of Canadians), have done everything right from a financial planning perspective (pay yourself first, hired experience investors, diversified portfolio blah, blah, blah), analysed the market in detail and it hasn’t made any sense to buy in for YEARS. I couldn’t make myself buy in even back in 2007. But still it keeps going up, and lucky people keep getting to feel smug, and look down their nose at renters, and put themselves in CRAZY levels of debt. What the heck are you supposed to do get some stability (don’t answer that – I know get a lease – STUPID ME!). The very basic house I am in (getting booted from), in the neighborhood I grew up in will list and sell quickly for $850K!!!! Blows my mind.
All of this brought to you by our f’d up government who think grants to get more people into the market actually addresses the affordability problem. WTF!
We let real estate investors and contractors and planners run CMHC so they can drive more business for themselves. Really a government program to make housing more affordable and accessible insures INVESTMENT properties. WTF!!!
Total insanity. Heads gotta role at some point here. What’s involved in starting a revolution?????
Yes I’m tired of moving, but my biggest concern is what we are doing to Vancouver for the long-term. Assuming it ever goes down (starting to have doubts at times these days) the correction will be HUGE, and will slaughter so many of today’s smug faces. They will get their financial assess handed to them, and likely never recover. With how many of them there seems to be, what is that going to do to the city I grew up in and love, but have a hard time enjoying living in these days.
Moving SUCKS!!!!
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February 29th, 2012 at 9:58 pm 59
@RentersRant:
feel your pain, been there too often, each move I have more money but the price difference between what I have saved and the price increase gets higher.
All the things you mentioned are to blame. A CMHC which has developers running the Board of Directors and the various games the Government plays to prop this asset. However what worries me even more, is when the bust happens, and it will, we will reading about all the sob stories of people losing their equity and have to be helped, of poor banks losing money and having to fire people and then the CMHC which is going to BK us.
In short we are going to get screwed again!
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February 29th, 2012 at 10:17 pm 60
@RentersRant:
This is a tragic story from a Vancouver Bear;repent and join us or u will be left in the cold.
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February 29th, 2012 at 10:19 pm 61
As you all probably know, or finally realize,I predicted this BANG ON 250 years ago, gives or take a NY minute.
UPDATE: Surrey Whalley condos:
Man…. business is booming.
I got Spielberg wanting to do JAWS versus Godzilla’s a Mother- in- law on the 13 th floor. I got it rented longer than the usual Surrey 1 HOUR special.
Now….limited time off-her……you too can be part of HollywankerWood North…send you 110% downpayment to Ozzie Jurock in Trust.
50% satisfaction guarantee or 25% of your money back…CASH ONLY.
You snooze ….ewe lose.
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February 29th, 2012 at 10:32 pm 62
@RentersRant:
Feel for you, been in your pants two times in one year.
Look at the move philosophically – this is an opportunity to get rid of stuff that accumulated in your nooks and crannies for years and never ever be used again.
Have a long lease signed (I got mine for 5 years) or find a good rental apartment/townhouse in the desired area. And get Chinese movers, the ones that I hired did fantastic job with fantastic speed to earn triple tips.
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February 29th, 2012 at 10:46 pm 63
@RentersRant:
“All of this brought to you by our f’d up government who think grants to get more people into the market actually addresses the affordability problem. WTF!”
Come on! Some of them are pretty slow on the uptake, but they’re not all stupid. Harper knew exactly what he was doing. Propping up real-estate was what got him his majority. It gave Canadians the illusion of a solid economic base in turbulent times and he masterfully played that into the promise of a solid economy with the Cons or a risky proposition with the Libs or NDP.
The only upside is that maybe Canadians will figure out the whole thing was a dodge by a bunch of criminals who would serve the country better in prison than in Ottawa. Then we can put these bastards behind us for a good ten or twenty years with any luck.
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February 29th, 2012 at 10:56 pm 64
I have heard that the City of Vancouver is REQUIRING a restaurant on Main Street to put up a neon plastic sign in place of the nice hand carved wooden sign that they currently have.
The person from whom I heard this story said that the reason given by the City was a fit with the planned ‘look’ for that area of Main in the future. Apparently the plan is that all the buildings will have such a style that nothing will do but plastic neon signs (of a certain size I guess). Wood would just clash. I said, what about the style of your restaurant itself, the decor inside, the food… neon doesn’t fit. What about what the owner of the building wants? Those things don’t matter to the City I was told. Sheesh. Can this be true? That they are trying to get neon signs in there up and down Main, all matching in size and made of plastic?
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February 29th, 2012 at 11:05 pm 65
@Patsan:
I hear you, it’s all how you look at it, which I am usually pretty good at. But in this case my self pity even extends to the cleanse opportunity as I have lost both parents and a dear grand parent in the 2 years we have been in this place – so many of the things I will now need to cleanse have very fond memories attached. I was going to get rid of them at some point but it’s feeling a bit too soon. But makes no sense to pack them up and move them.
And because we are not willing to share a house that wasn’t designed for 2 families I’m finding rent opportunities very weak. We got in at just the right time last time and managed to negotiate on rent between to suiting landlords. So far it’s looking like about a 30% lift in rent to find something similar, and it won’t be in easy play-date range for the 2 year old’s new buddies (wife’s new friends).
Yes I’m wallowing in self pity right now, but my point is the larger one, that this thing is broken. I make good money, saved well, pay very healthy taxes (no corporate tax shelters here – take it all as income) to the buffoons that are keeping this thing going as long as they can. To what end? They get to keep their jobs for a while, but in the short term there’s significant discomfort to many (not just me – back to self pity – but the many families that are just getting by trying to scrape together mortgage payments) and in the long run potentially financially screwing a generation.
I really feel for kids leaving College/University these days. A bunch of debt, rent that is crazy high for the earnings they can make in this backwater of an economic city, and NO CHANCE of being able to AFFORD a decent place to buy. For this crowd I don’t need to make the distinction between being able to buy (fog a mirror) and being able to actually afford it. I’d say buyers in the latter category are in the vast minority these days.
I agree with you, it’s a matter of time but man is time moving slowly these days – for me at least. Some cracks are showing for sure, but feels a bit like nothing we haven’t seen before. I guess what may make it different this time is that in theory the federal government is trying to reign it in? Do we know that? I guess we’ll see as the budget approaches.
Without clear controls from on high, there is NO WAY the average person is going to step away from the punch bowl. The are too stupid! To paraphrase the late great George Carlin: “Think how stupid the average person is. Just take a minute and think about that…. And half of the people are dumber than that!” (no mean vs. avg refresher needed from the most statistically minded) And all of them qualify for a mortgage these days.
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February 29th, 2012 at 11:21 pm 66
Sorry to hear about your predicament RentersRant. But you know, the gov’t likes to keep the house prices artificially high. During the buy and sell process, they get to collect more taxes. If you’re a purchaser, you have to pay the property purchase tax and if you don’t have enough down, you have to pay again to big brother – CHMC. Then there’s the seller who supposedly made a capital gain on the sale and may have to pay taxes on that. Then the purchaser gets screwed again when the price of his place goes up again and he has to pay more on his property tax. Just imagine how much taxes the government can collect if the same house is flipped multiple times.
With all the increase in taxes during the boom years of our real estate market, it amazes me that they’re in debt. It’s obviously a mismanagement of taxpayers funds. It also amazes me that people would do anything to purchase an $850k house. It’s almost like playing in a roulette table. At least at the casino, it’s chump change compared to the amount you can lose if the real estate market goes belly up.
In any event, hope you find a decent rental place RentersRant.
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February 29th, 2012 at 11:30 pm 67
@RentersRant:
Maybe you have to move, maybe you don’t. If you didn’t sign a second lease, then you should be on month-to-month (check you lease, it will say). If you are on month to month you cannot be thrown out unless they plan major renovations or the owner or a family member is going to live in it. You certainly cannot be thrown out just because they want to sell. They have to sell with you in it and, if the new owner plans to occupy it, then the new owner has to give you notice. But the new owner may be happy to rent it to you.
I was in the same boat a couple of months back. I say we would stay until after they sold. In the end — and this a a bit weird, but it’s what happened — the realtor told my landlady not to sell, but rather to refinance and hold on it it (I know, the worst advice ever given). She hummed and hawed, so I asked if a rent increase would help. She went for it and so we are here for the foreseeable future.
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February 29th, 2012 at 11:47 pm 68
@Anonymous:
According to RBC mortgage adviser Jason Wang, he is warning that 5 year fixed rates may be on the rise soon, and that “better rates nowadays only allow 60 days preapproval, some only 30 days”
(of course, being a mortgage adviser he is urging people to get pre-approved and “lock in” ASAP)
http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.westca.com%2FForums%2Fviewtopic%2Ft%3D429165%2Flang%3Dschinese.html&act=url
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March 1st, 2012 at 5:36 am 69
Just jumping on a plane – - but a quick reminder that the avg prices this month for detached are going to look like massive increases. This is all because sales of very high priced houses this month and does not indicate the market has moved. Looking to see if Larry still posts his numbers as he starts to make some website changes.
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March 1st, 2012 at 5:40 am 70
59 Anonymous Says: “In short we are going to get screwed again!”
Maybe. When sales grind to a halt renters could be the only thing keeping many owners solvent. Drawing from the American experience, the market will potentially be littered with unoccupied homes.
Of course, Harper could always demonstrate the public integrity and concern he’s shown over the past six years by raising immigration quotas to Kuwait or UAE levels.
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March 1st, 2012 at 6:03 am 71
@fixie guy:
Actually Kuwait and UAE don’t take any immigrants, they take guest workers.
But immigration in itself doesn’t support house prices in the first place. It’s people with money, either from jobs or in suitcases. We all know how few good jobs there are for immigrants (it’s bad enough for locals), and the number of people able and willing to bring suitcases of money into Canada is a lot smaller than people think IMHO.
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March 1st, 2012 at 6:33 am 72
71 patriotz: Tell them:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/imm_imm_pop_imm_as_per_of_sta_pop-immigrant-population-immigrants-percentage-state
Let’s agree to disagree. Your model that the rate of change of population growth bears no relationship to home prices makes zero sense to me. I certainly agree it doesn’t over the long term, one over which the market absorbs the change, but short term the dislocations in housing demand must impact prices. The fact that it can only be short term is why I keep ‘harping’ on our cynical and misguided federal policies.
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March 1st, 2012 at 7:27 am 73
“Just jumping on a plane – – but a quick reminder that the avg prices this month for detached are going to look like massive increases. This is all because sales of very high priced houses this month and does not indicate the market has moved. Looking to see if Larry still posts his numbers as he starts to make some website changes.”
and here you go…
http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/03/vancouver-home-prices-set-new-record-high/
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March 1st, 2012 at 7:31 am 74
i see the crash hasn’t happened yet. i don’t know about u but i’m going to be gong to whistler this weekend and enjoy the best place on earth and sip my cranteeny in the apres ski!
need to get way from all the hot asian money once in a while!
toodles!
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March 1st, 2012 at 7:31 am 75
and now vancouver is getting it’s own “real house wives” show. this cities international profile keeps growing.
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March 1st, 2012 at 7:39 am 76
hopefully the government won’t realize that the averages are skewed by a few really high priced sales and take this “”new high as a reason to do something to stop the craziness.
I’m so sure that it’s HAM that bought those high priced homes and are responsible for the new all time high. Unfortunately it creates panic with the local residents that are trying to buy a place big enough for their growing families etc, hence them jumping in as well.
I watched an open house at my building this weekend. Older 3 story building 1 bedroom with a common laundry room, about 600 square feet and $400,000. No ham showed up, but I saw about 5 couples buzz that suite, all young whities. I think it’s locals buying the low end stuff and ham buying all the really high end stuff.
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March 1st, 2012 at 8:38 am 77
@ Anonymus #73
Larry’s number are year over year. Yes, we all know prices are still higher than last year at this time. They shot up in early 2011, but they have been falling slowly since April.
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March 1st, 2012 at 8:42 am 78
“Larry’s number are year over year. Yes, we all know prices are still higher than last year at this time. They shot up in early 2011, but they have been falling slowly since April.”
pretty sure that detached houses have now surpassed the April high
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March 1st, 2012 at 9:54 am 79
@fixie guy:
“Your model that the rate of change of population growth bears no relationship to home prices makes zero sense to me.”
That’s not my “model”. What I said is that population growth in itself does not drive house prices. Incomes do.
Of course there’s a correlation between RE prices and population growth, because people move – from both inside and outside Canada – to where the jobs are.
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March 1st, 2012 at 9:55 am 80
@patriotz:
I should also add, of course, that debt also drives prices in the short term but cannot in the long term.
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March 1st, 2012 at 10:16 am 81
@Anonymous: RE: High avg for Feb.
There have been a lot of camparisons this year with 2008 in terms of inventory, etc. It’s interesting there was a similar spike in the avg price back then, a couple months before things got ugly fast…
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March 1st, 2012 at 11:04 am 82
79 patriotz: No one was arguing an immigration wave of destitute and homeless, presumably the feds can manage admission of people capable of affording shelter. An accelerating increase in the number of people entering the country like we’ve seen over the last ~5 years will generate new demand for housing. If supply/demand is still a valid economic principle it should result in additional upward pressure on prices until the rate of population growth stabilizes and the markets fulfill the demand.
Don’t confuse indicators for causes. Temperature isn’t heat.
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March 1st, 2012 at 11:11 am 83
@fixie guy:
“An accelerating increase in the number of people entering the country like we’ve seen over the last ~5 years will generate new demand for housing. ”
1. Demand to own housing or demand for shelter? Those are two different things entirely.
2. Demand means somebody who wants something and can pay for it, not just someone who wants something.
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March 1st, 2012 at 11:32 am 84
Looks like a developer, Cressey, is choosing to rent out some new units instead of selling them.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/pml/apa/2875521976.html
I was hoping this kind of thing would happen, and I suspect I’ve seen other developers do this too.
WIN-WIN This puts the housing supply on the market where it should be and provides a downward pressure on rents. Developers aren’t so emotional as effed buyers. I suspect they will mark-down rents for strong applicants. Come to them with impressive paystubs and references, and they will start negotiating
This building is a bit too far out for me, but I might check it out.
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March 1st, 2012 at 12:23 pm 85
but it says that building sold out.
http://www.alexpedneault.com/Blog.php/new-listing-assignment-at-m-one-by-cressey-at-2507-1155-high-st.-coquitlam-bc
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March 1st, 2012 at 12:26 pm 86
Should we remind Larry that this is a clear sign of the beginning of a bubble burst: only the higher segment of the market is still moving?
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March 1st, 2012 at 12:44 pm 87
83 patriotz patriotz Says:
“1. Demand to own housing or demand for shelter?”
Presumably a normal distribution of new immigrants seeking demand cross the spectrum of accommodation from rental to purchases. Any reason to think otherwise?
“2. Demand means somebody who wants something and can pay for it, not just someone who wants something.”
Are you suggesting all new immigrants are living penniless on the streets? Or bringing accommodation with them? Tents?
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March 1st, 2012 at 12:54 pm 88
@fixie guy:
You’re assuming that immigration in itself creates jobs. I’m assuming it doesn’t. If it did all the government would need to do to solve unemployment in a place like Windsor would be to give it an immigration quota.
Dividing up the same sized economic pie among more people does not create more demand for anything.
Also, there are plenty of cities with little or no immigration that have seen just as much of a price runup in the last decade as Vancouver or Toronto.
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March 1st, 2012 at 12:58 pm 89
@patriotz: That why you had to pack up and leave, and made the world know about it?
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March 1st, 2012 at 12:59 pm 90
@vangrl:
Could it be the developer offered the new owners (investors) a package that lets developer help rent their investment property out?
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March 1st, 2012 at 1:07 pm 91
@patriotz:
“Demand means somebody who wants something and can pay for it, not just someone who wants something.”
Do you think a significant number of immigrants won’t be able to pay for shelter?
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March 1st, 2012 at 1:11 pm 92
@patriotz:
“You’re assuming that immigration in itself creates jobs. ”
No, he’s not.
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March 1st, 2012 at 1:17 pm 93
@Patiently Waiting:
Likewise way too far out for me too.
Anyone check out yet, or is interested in, the “PaPa” rentals, in the rehabilitated Pacific Pallisades between Robson and Alberni? I’m not a fan of the wall between kitchen/living room, which creates a closed in galley-style kitchen, if it was a bar-height wall instead it would open up the place much more.
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March 1st, 2012 at 1:20 pm 94
@Devore: I also don’t like their marketing, but that’s neither here nor there
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March 1st, 2012 at 1:32 pm 95
@ VMD
“Could it be the developer offered the new owners (investors) a package that lets developer help rent their investment property out?”
possibly, but if it was such a hot ticket and sold out, I’m not sure why the developers would need or want to do that, and be tied to the building for longer than they have to be.
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March 1st, 2012 at 1:36 pm 96
Decrease in foreign buying activity impacts Vancouver’s most expensive market segments
VANCOUVER, B.C. –March 1, 2012 – GVREB reports that February 2012 saw continued deterioration of sales activity combined with high levels of property listings and sales continued to languish near the lowest levels of the past decade. Many factors are contributing to the reduced sales levels including, reduced activity from foreign buyers, reduced credit availability, and a reduction in the number of move-up buyers. In addition, there is shifting sentiment with many potential buyers who believe that prices are not sustainable and thus are delaying their buying decision. The number of months of inventory has fallen from 8 to 6 months since January, but remains at a seasonally high level with recent years having between 3 and 4 months during February. We are also seeing that the tightening of credit markets has restricted access to funds for lower quality borrowers and thus reducing the buyer pool.
The previously strong markets of Vancouver West, Richmond, and West Vancouver are showing significant decreases in sales volume as the number of expected arrivals of foreign buyers during February failed to materialize. Richmond registered the largest decrease in sales with detached property volumes down 55% compared with February 2011. We also noted that the Vancouver East detached market had sales decreases of approx 30%. Overall sales activity during February 2012 continues to be at or near record lows of the previous 10 years with only February 2009 being weaker. In addition, sales decreases have been growing with each of the previous 7 months having progressively worse year/year sales volumes. February did show signs that wealthy foreign buyers had made investments in the Vancouver market with several homes over $8 million being sold. This combined with slow sales volumes had a disproportionate effect on the average price for the month, increasing the average detached price by 8.2% and the apartment price by 3.1%. We remind market observers and commentators to note the Residential Reference Price which is not affected by sales of high priced properties and not to interpret an increase in the average price as a sign of overall market strength.
Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,465 in February 2012, a decrease of 20.0 per cent from the 3,097 sales recorded in February 2011 and a 10.1 per cent decline compared to February 2010 when 2,742 home sales occurred. The 20.0 per cent year/year decrease in sales activity compares to the 13.0 year/year decrease seen in January 2012. Adjusting for the impact of the additional sales day from the leap year, sales were down 25.0 per cent. We have seen worsening year over year declines in volume since October. We expect these decreases to continue to worsen until the end of April.
The overall Residential Reference Price for Greater Vancouver increased 8.8 per cent to $659,000 between February 2011 and 2012. However, prices have decreased 1.4 per cent since hitting a peak of $668,200 in September 2011. It is noted that annual price gains are concentrated mainly in the detached segment. The lack of significant price increases in the apartment and attached segments over the past 4 years has affected the ability of the move-up buyer to reach their planned next step on the traditional property ladder. After factoring transaction costs, most recent buyers of attached and apartment units have found they have not created any equity in their properties other than through the equity resulting from principal payments on their mortgages. The lack of equity gains has removed a large segment of people from the pool of buyers with funds available to buy larger properties.
Knowledgeable market insiders have recently been saying: “The market is showing several signs of increasing downward price pressures. Inventories of high-priced newly built properties are in excess of 12 months in many areas and foot traffic at these open houses is slow with few serious buyers on the market. There is also a large decrease in the presence of foreign buyers. The sentiment of young people towards ownership is also shifting and renting is becoming not just a financial necessity but a well thought-out positive financial decision. Even with the lowest mortgage rates in history, prices are so high that buyers do not currently see that ownership is a smart financial decision and see that losing all their equity is not only possible but is likely.”
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,565 in February 2012, a seasonally high amount but a decrease of 2.3 per cent compared to the 5,693 units listed in February 2011. Looking back, listings in February were 20.8 per cent higher than the 4,606 listings in February 2010 and 15.9 per cent higher than the 4,801 listings in February 2009. The total number of properties currently listed for sale on in Greater Vancouver is 14,055, an increase of 18 per cent when compared to this time last year. In previous years, only 2009 had higher inventory at the end of February, however the 2009 highs are forecast to be exceeded in during May 2012.
Sales of detached properties in February 2012 fell to 1,053, a decrease of 24.9 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in February 2011, and a 7.1 per cent increase from the 983 units sold during the Olympic period in February 2010. The reference price for detached properties increased 13.1 per cent from February 2012 to $1,032,000.
Sales of apartment properties reached 1,007 in February 2012, a decline of 16.5 per cent compared to the 1,206 sales in February 2011, and a decrease of 6.3 per cent compared to the 1,074 sales in February 2010.The reference price of an apartment property increased 2.7 per cent from February 2011 to $369,500.
Attached property sales in February 2012 totalled 405, a decline of 17.1 per cent compared to the 489 sales in February 2011, and a 2.6 per cent decrease from the 416 attached properties sold in February 2010. The reference price of an attached unit decreased 1.1 per cent between February 2011 and 2012 to $467,000.
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March 1st, 2012 at 2:10 pm 97
@GVREB
is this another one of those fake but amazingly well written and truthful articles?
I always get my hopes up that it’s on the cover of the Globe and Mail..
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March 1st, 2012 at 4:01 pm 98
[...] must come down to ensure that Canada is still competitive on the international stage.” – Burbs Boy at VCI 29 Feb 2012 12:34pm Share:TwitterFacebookRedditStumbleUponDigg This entry was posted in 07. Avoiding Vancouver, 12. [...]
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March 1st, 2012 at 4:07 pm 99
Hey everyone! How are your respective days going?
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March 1st, 2012 at 4:08 pm 100
@ George:
The Jerk store called, their running out of you
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March 1st, 2012 at 4:09 pm 101
What’s the deal with lampshades…
I mean if it’s a lamp, why do you want shade?!
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March 1st, 2012 at 4:27 pm 102
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/personal-finance-reader/rob-carricks-reader-panic-time-for-housing/article2355066/
Panic time for housing
That’s what Maclean’s magazine says in a cover article about Canada’s housing market. What I took from this article is that the economy is sunk if the housing market falls hard because of the potential impact on consumer spending.
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March 1st, 2012 at 4:56 pm 103
Hi all,
Been a long time since I’ve posted and just wanted to give everyone an update on my neck of the woods on the Westside. Last Nov/Dec – can’t remember when, I posted that there were 7 houses within a stone’s throw from my house that were for sale. To clarify a bit better all 7 are on the same road as me and I walk past them on my way home from work every day and the walk from the bus stop is about 1km. I actually checked MLS and there was an 8th house which was listed but I missed as the owner did not put a sign on the front lawn.
Since last fall, 3 of them have remained for sale and are still for sale today. (They’re empty and I’m pretty sure are owned by HAM.) Three de-listed right before Christmas and have yet to re-list while the other two de-listed before Christmas and re-listed in Feb, still awaiting a sale. In other words, zero sales. I know it’s a very small sample size but it’s shocking really as I would have expected at least one bloody sale. Prices on the houses ranged anywhere from $1.7MM to $4.0MM, so these house were a mix of tear-downs (for my neck of the woods) and HAM specials. If I walked another 400 metres farther up from my house, there were another two houses that had been for sale all fall and were de-listed and have since yet to re-list.
So, what I’m trying to say is that I do see some stuff selling, but the sales pace is WAY off last Feb’s sales pace where nothing was staying on the market for more than a couple of weeks in my neighbourhood. Finally, I think my very small cross sample tells us that there are a bunch of people who pulled their listings last fall that are waiting to re-list this spring, so I’ll be watching the inventory count with keen interest this spring!
cheers to all,
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March 1st, 2012 at 5:05 pm 104
@chopper:
Story from the moon;tell the address and I will check.
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March 1st, 2012 at 5:11 pm 105
@chopper:
Chopper… what’s your street like and for that matter what’s your neighbourhood like? Are there many empty houses on your street? Can you give us a hint as to where you are… no need to divulge everything just like ‘between Alma and MacDonald below West Broadway… that type of thing would do.
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March 1st, 2012 at 5:31 pm 106
@mac: Hi Mac, I live on a super great street. Very good schools nearby and my rent is actually quite reasonable. In my neighborhood, there are empty houses on every block, some for pure speculation and others where HAM drops in from time to time. Presently I’m price well out of the market in my area, even for a tear down, and I’m finding my biggest competetion for these tear downs are developers, not HAM. This is why I think the market is being driven from the top town in this area. I’ve love to see the market go tits up just to see a few of these prick developors I’m competing against go bankrupt. Sorry, I’d be happy to tell you a specific location except for the fact that I don’t want to advertise where I live.
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March 1st, 2012 at 6:02 pm 107
@jumpin in:
“What I took from this article is that the economy is sunk if the housing market falls hard because of the potential impact on consumer spending.”
What Carrick is missing is that an economy that depends on inflated house prices (rather than incomes) to maintain consumer spending is already taking on water, and the sinking is inevitable.
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March 1st, 2012 at 6:28 pm 108
@chopper:
oh no, VREAA the great will headline this and claim that it’s gonna be 66% off. poor guy, his guy is chasing him by the tail.
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March 1st, 2012 at 6:42 pm 109
ETB at RET rubbed more salt to the bears’ wounds. vanpoor must be eating his own hat.
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March 1st, 2012 at 7:11 pm 110
New Listings 313
Price Changes 94
Sold Listings 123
TI:14912
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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March 1st, 2012 at 7:12 pm 111
@paulb.:
Lots of expires?
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March 1st, 2012 at 7:21 pm 112
@paulb.:
The inventory dropped less than 100 from yesterday- so no, not a lot of expires.
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March 1st, 2012 at 8:27 pm 113
@chopper:
I totally understand, Chopper. I’m guessing you’re somewhere on the westside on a leafy street with mainly SFHomes?
Can you tell me how you come into competition with the developers? What have your experiences been? Usually when you make an offer on a house you have no idea who you’re competing against. Who are these guys developing for HAM? How long does it take them from winning the bid to completion of the house?
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March 1st, 2012 at 9:15 pm 114
Is there a lot more people visiting this site? I’ve noticed that the # of votes received by paulb has gone significantly up, and much faster, that just even a month ago.
Has anybody else noticed it?
By the way, Larry’s comments are pretty funny today. Last month, he had a fairly bearish view, and now he’s back in pumping mode. He might be in for a big disappointment, and very soon.
Prices are up, sales are down. This is a very familiar divergence pattern to all the traders out there… That’s just a confirmation that we have indeed reached the peak. Can’t wait for the spring and summer season to be over. Then we’ll see exactly in which shape the market is, and it won’t be pretty (I mean for the over-leveraged owners…).
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March 1st, 2012 at 9:26 pm 115
After the crash… picture of Ireland after the real estate bust.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/pictures-of-irelands-abandoned-housing/article2354008/
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March 1st, 2012 at 9:32 pm 116
Two similar properties, one in Vancouver and one in Hawaii. One costs 3 times the other… Guess which one!
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11523632&PidKey=-113497184
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/401-Leomele-Pl_Hilo_HI_96720_M72969-60775
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March 1st, 2012 at 9:38 pm 117
@Eddie: Yeah dude, but one of them is is Hawaii. I heard it rains there all the time, who wants to live there? Everybody wants to live in Vancouver with our even climate, we have the classic vacation spot.
Ever seen the TV show Vancouver 5.0? There’s always hot babes in bikinis walking around and the sun is always shining. Who can resist that?
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March 1st, 2012 at 10:12 pm 118
@chopper: “Sorry, I’d be happy to tell you a specific location except for the fact that I don’t want to advertise where I live.”
Yes the real estate cartel might track you down if you gave away the neighborhood. Or you could just be making the story up?
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March 1st, 2012 at 10:12 pm 119
Up in Whistler and noticed the following advert in The Pique newspaper:
Top Floor Studio in Market Pavillion
(long description)
Phase 1 – unrestricted owner-use
Owner paid $310k – Must be sold
In the realtor’s words, “A Steal at $189k”. Ouch! I thought real estate always went up? Why isn’t the massacre of Whistler prices a news story in Vancouver?
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March 1st, 2012 at 10:16 pm 120
Fellow Bears,very disappointing numbers on the price of SFH last month.
Regardless of the reasons for the price increase (ie: a few really big sales) it is bullish for the market. We can all spin it any way we want but not one can deny that it is disappointing. The MSN will use this to draw more people in telling them RE can only go up in Vancouver, buy now or be priced our forever, throwing away rent, bears are wrong, its different here.
We all know how this will end but February’s numbers just pumped a ton of air into this balloon. As much as it pains me, I think the party hats will need to sit in the closet for a while yet. This market might be on the way to the hospital but it not dead yet.
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March 1st, 2012 at 10:24 pm 121
I wish this was coming to Vancouver!
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/01/aussies-get-a-shot-at-betting-on-domestic-housing-prices/
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March 1st, 2012 at 10:31 pm 122
@McLovin:
Hit right on their balls hard with 1000 pounds hammer;but they will never give up while average Vancouver SFH is approaching 1.5 million mark
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March 1st, 2012 at 11:03 pm 123
[...] “My concern about this continuing decrease in the US house market is that it appears to be setting them up for an increase in business. My job here in Canada could very well be done by an American faciliy within our own company, and now the US is releasing information that only seems to confirm that their economy is starting to finally grow again. A high Canadian dollar and an extremely high cost of living (housing) combine to make me less competitive against my counterparts in the US. They can agree to take lower compensation and still have a nicer house (better standard of living) than I… my productivity levels are comparable or better when comparing apples to apples, but I get less bang for my buck. Housing prices must come down to ensure that Canada is still competitive on the international stage.” – Burbs Boy at VCI 29 Feb 2012 12:34pm [...]
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March 1st, 2012 at 11:32 pm 124
@McLovin: You mean the average price? You’re tilting at windmills.
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March 1st, 2012 at 11:40 pm 125
@Ulsterman: ….In the realtor’s words, “A Steal at $189k”. ….
When it gets down to $80k (and it will), I might take a look.
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March 2nd, 2012 at 12:07 am 126
[...] to panic on the housing market -Very few expiries means a quick return to the 15k party. -We’re at the highest inventory for this time of year [...]
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March 2nd, 2012 at 12:34 am 127
@121 I’d be worried if that came to Vancouver. “The index is a major step toward creating new financial contracts” It’ll be just another avenue for speculation. We’ll have RRSPs, TSFAs, and investment funds playing the market on top of the usual idiots speculating.
In a way, the goal of this index would be like the credit default swaps that helped to contribute to the US crises. It takes each individual risk and combines it into an entire entity. This creates a new race to the bottom where the risk takers are immediately rewarded, and the prudent banks are punished with hostile takeovers.
Stage 1: Create a benchmark index to con the investors
Stage 2: Create index funds
Stage 3: Shift risk from banks over to inestors.
Stage 4: Collect $$$
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March 2nd, 2012 at 12:54 am 128
@McLovin:
If Flaherty lowers the boom like Garth thinks he will, no amount of pumping will help. It’s only slowing the derailment, which is certainly in progress.
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March 2nd, 2012 at 6:12 am 129
88 patriotz: “You’re assuming that immigration in itself creates jobs.”
Not at all. More people means more demand for places to live. This is so obvious it’s incredible to see it contested. The only way around this is via your hidden assumption/misdirection new Canadians are arriving without the financial means to acquire them. That’s patently, demonstrably false.
The market eventually absorbs that demand and prices return to a level more in line with historical norms. There’s a strong argument to be made that the market is capable of reacting to a constant rate of immigration because the overall demand remains predictable and permits planning. The situation we’re in is an unpredictable increase in immigration rates driven by federal policy. The government has repeatedly justified it on economic grounds, but if you want to keep voting down simple economics and public record fill your boots.
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March 2nd, 2012 at 8:56 am 130
@Ulsterman: The Whistler market is a completely different market then the Van market. Whistler is purely a play on discretionary spending. This does however indicate that people are simply just not spending as much as they used to, but does not necessarily reflect what is occurring in GVRD and especially in Vancouver. The Vancouver market is unlike anywhere else in the world. People want to live in a world class city, but are not willing to live up (as in a highrise), they want to live in a house and as a result, due to supply and demand (not saying that there is no speculative buying because there is) house prices are bound to go up or at least stay inflated. If all mainland Chinese individuals were to flood the market with pure speculative positions that they have in the Van housing market, yes there would be a bust. However, I don’t see this happening. Moreover, Chinese manufacturing orders and durable good numbers came out, and they are better then expected. The Vancouver housing market is driven by so many factors that no single one can dictate the direction of price. Do I think homes are way too expensive and should be more affordable, yes. Is it going to drastically change in the near future, no.
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March 2nd, 2012 at 9:51 am 131
Does anybody on this blog knows about Austin, Tx? I’ve just got an offer to relocate there from my company. Not quite sure if I should take it yet. Salary will be better, less vacations (which really sucks in my situation), more affordable housing, etc. I would be required to move within the next two months!
If you have been or lived there, how did you like/dislike it?
Thanks guys
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March 2nd, 2012 at 10:18 am 132
Makaya — Austin is a great city, clean with very friendly people and a great culture, lots of live music. Also home to the U of T. Summers are hot but everyone has AC everywhere. I’d move there in a heartbeat if I had a job lined up.
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March 2nd, 2012 at 10:33 am 133
@betamax: Thanks Beta. I’ve never been there and can’t really make my mid…
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March 2nd, 2012 at 11:27 am 134
@McLovin:
We already have a forward market for housing operated by National Bank based on the Teranet HPI (It is “Teranet-National Bank”, after all). It’s just not exchange-traded like the Aussies’: it’s OTC. Maybe we’ll get there…
I’d be more interested in a naked CDS market, though.
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March 2nd, 2012 at 6:48 pm 135
@Anonymous:
Good work man,hit on their ball hard with facts and reality.Shut their doom-day maniac’s mouth once for all.cheer for the inevitable 1.5 million threadhold in 2014.
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March 10th, 2012 at 7:51 am 136
[...] “Enough is fcuking enough. Found out this morning I have to move again. My stupid mistake for not setting a 2nd lease. They are selling and cashing out – can’t blame them. They are friends of my brothers and gave us an indication they were holding long-term. SO STUPID OF ME!!! A 2 year old, prego wife, new job – timing could not be worse! But seriously, I make good money (top 5% of Canadians), have done everything right from a financial planning perspective (pay yourself first, hired experience investors, diversified portfolio blah, blah, blah), analysed the market in detail and it hasn’t made any sense to buy in for YEARS. I couldn’t make myself buy in even back in 2007. But still it keeps going up, and lucky people keep getting to feel smug, and look down their nose at renters, and put themselves in CRAZY levels of debt. What the heck are you supposed to do get some stability (don’t answer that – I know get a lease – STUPID ME!). The very basic house I am in (getting booted from), in the neighborhood I grew up in will list and sell quickly for $850K!!!! Blows my mind. All of this brought to you by our f’d up government who think grants to get more people into the market actually addresses the affordability problem. WTF! We let real estate investors and contractors and planners run CMHC so they can drive more business for themselves. Really a government program to make housing more affordable and accessible insures INVESTMENT properties. WTF!!! Total insanity. Heads gotta role at some point here. What’s involved in starting a revolution????? Yes I’m tired of moving, but my biggest concern is what we are doing to Vancouver for the long-term. Assuming it ever goes down (starting to have doubts at times these days) the correction will be HUGE, and will slaughter so many of today’s smug faces. They will get their financial assess handed to them, and likely never recover. With how many of them there seems to be, what is that going to do to the city I grew up in and love, but have a hard time enjoying living in these days. Moving SUCKS!!!!” – RentersRant at VCI 29 Feb 2012 at 9:30pm [...]
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March 14th, 2012 at 8:42 pm 137
Hey Renter Rant,
You didn’t set a 2nd lease, that means you’ve automatically moved to what’s called month-to-month in the BC Residential Tenancy Act.
That is transferred to the new owners which means they have to give you at least 2 months notice PLUS 1 month’s rent if they’re kicking you out.
There are other rules they have to follow as well if they are trying to kick you out, so you should definitely read the relevant parts of the Act, specifically the sections about “Notice to End Tenancy”.
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June 7th, 2012 at 10:34 pm 138
Hp, Canon, Máy in, Máy scan, máy fax, máy photocopy, máy huỷ giấy, máy chấm công, máy kiểm soát cửa, Hp, Canon, Panasonic, Fuji Xeror, Printronic…
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