US housing market still deflating

City by city data for US markets is just out showing how much prices fell in the year and how far they’ve come down since the market top.  Here’s what last year looked like in some major US markets:

South of the border: city -by-city breakdown of latest Case-shiller data

Las Vegas: Prices down 8.8%, and 61% below peak.
Los Angeles: Prices down 5.2%, and 41% below peak.
Miami: Prices down 3.8%, and 51% below peak.
New York: Prices down 2.9%, and 24% below peak.
Phoenix: Prices down 1.2%, and 55% below peak.
Portland: Prices down 4%, and 29% below peak.
San Francisco: Prices down 5.4%, and 41% below peak.
Seattle: Prices down 5.6%, and 32% below peak.

Remember, it’s not a bubble, it’s a balloon.  Balloons don’t pop, they deflate.  Slowly over the course of many years.

Hat tip to VMD for the link.

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
default
Guest
default

you dont have to do this to comfort your parents that they were homeonwers became renters.

mattymatt12345
Guest
mattymatt12345

we need some of that here! 30% to 40% would be good…

Hibernating Renter
Member
Hibernating Renter

A friend and I were chatting this evening about insane housing prices in Vancouver and how it’s so much cheaper to rent than buy the equivalent unit. When I mentioned waiting for the correction, though, he was quick to point out that it’s never going to happen, just like it never happened in the US. He told me that prices only went down in undesirable areas and prices in the nice neighbourhoods are still at peak. Does anyone have any data that proves him wrong?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Hibernating Renter: Uh…this topic lists 9 cities that are all considered desirable…check the numbers

VMD
Member

@Hibernating Renter:
I quite liked Miami beach when I was there over a year ago.

here’s the Trulia home median sales price graph for last 10 years (you can search all cities/neighborhoods)

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Miami_Beach-Florida/market-trends/

jesse
Member

@Hibernating Renter: Vancouver is full of “undesirable” areas”, just like all those cities.

logic
Guest
logic

@ hibernating renter:

I think your friend is full of crap.

patriotz
Member

@Hibernating Renter:
“He told me that prices only went down in undesirable areas and prices in the nice neighbourhoods are still at peak. Does anyone have any data that proves him wrong?”

http://www.forbes.com/2011/03/04/celebrity-foreclosures-real-estate-forbeslife.html

jesse
Member

@Hibernating Renter: Based on some Zillow searching some areas of US metros decreased markedly less than others. For example parts of LA and SF are off their 2006 peaks by about 10-15% or so. That’s not insubstantial — it was 6 years ago so in real terms that’s quite a bit more — but it puts into context how painful price drops were in other areas of the city.

It’s also a false argument — buying a low-yielding asset is still buying a low-yielding asset. That it maintains its capital is beside the point. It’s like saying that I’m glad I have type 2 diabetes instead of terminal cancer. I’d rather not have either.

patriotz
Member

Queen Anne in Seattle, which would be a peer of Kerrisdale, is down about the same % as the Seattle metro as a whole:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3273-Conkling-Pl-W-Seattle-WA-98119/49014958_zpid/

registered
Member
registered

@3 Hibernating Renter: Make your friend sit down and watch all three parts of “CSSA 8th Annual Conference – Dr. Chris Thornberg” on YouTube. Have him pay particular attention to the discussion of why certain areas did better than others and his segue into the ethics of the National Association of Realtors.

Thornberg, at the time with Berkeley, was one of the lone public voices calling a California bubble in 2006. The data analysis and reasoning set out in his Economics Roundtable speech are still a gold standard on the subject. The arguments are still as sharp and contrarian today.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
Patsan
Guest
Patsan

Teranet index is published for December.
Vancouver:
YoY – +8.21%
MoM – -0.31% – this is -3.72% per year

Victoria:
YoY – +0.32%
MoM – -0.80% – -9.6% yearly decline, ouch!
The graph shows beautifully formed “head and shoulders”.

Not much of a name...
Member
Not much of a name...

@Anonymous:

Read the last four sentences of that article that relate to BC RE. Not all that rosy.

Many have only begun to lower their asking prices to meet the current market realities; ie, more supply than demand.

That said, there has been some movement.

The dollar value B.C. properties sold in January dipped 7.6 per cent to $2.1 billion, compared to the same month last year. The average MLS residential price was 3.8 per cent lower at $527,219 compared to January 2011.

jumping in
Guest
jumping in

WTF?!?!
http://www.citypoint.ca/

zero mortgage payments
zero strata fees
zero property taxes

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

@jumping in: I know I’m a snob, but they’d have to pay me to live in Surrey.

jumping in
Guest
jumping in

I am sorry, but this article (http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/item/1066-report-chinese-investors-remain-focused-on-to-vancouver)
is just another desperate attempt at pumping. They do not bring any solid facts or statistics.

As for “desirable” neighborhoods, I do not understand your friend. To me a “desirable” neighborhoods is a place where I can AFFORD a house, that is safe and not too far from my job. If it is not affordable, it is not desirable. It is important for me to stay away from people who can through 2 to 3 millions at a house: we usually do not have much in common.

WFT?
Guest
WFT?

@jesse:

True. Actually 50% of Vancouver in undesireable. When people talk about the best city in the world, they are talking only about the part of the city West of Main Street.

space889
Member
space889

@WFT?: I thought to a real Vancouverite, it’s really west of Oak or even Granville???

Devore
Member
Devore

@jumping in: No price cuts here!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Vancouver is officially World Class. Real House Wives series is now in Vancouver. One of the wives (Reiko MacKenzie) who’s hobby is driving Ferraris is married to a notorious gangster Sun News Lal. He was tried for murder a few years back in the infamous Gillian Guess trial.

The only way the series could find an affluent house wife in Vancouver was to get one married to a gangster. Most other house wives in Vancouver are working 2 jobs to make the mortgage payments.

http://arts.nationalpost.com/2012/02/28/real-housewives-of-vancouver-will-debut-on-april-4/

Guy Smiley
Member
Guy Smiley

“buyers’ markets in Vancouver and Victoria.”

Would be nice if the FP could find someone other than the CREA to comment on prices, but at least they got this comment right.

jesse
Member

@WFT?: “50% of Vancouver in undesireable”

Ergo… big price drops! Let the detached westside do as they may, it was stratospheric for most people 10 years ago. 🙂

Anonymouse
Guest
Anonymouse

@Anonymous:

“Most other house wives in Vancouver are working 2 jobs to make the mortgage payments.”

Housewives don’t go to work, by definition.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@WFT?: “Actually 50% of Vancouver in undesireable.”

And about 90% of the remaining parts of Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley are also undesirable. In the busts of the past the Westside did not get spared due to desirability. The British Properties were one of the hardest hit in percentage terms in the 1980s bust. Some places in West Van lost up to 2/3 value.

wpDiscuz