US housing market still deflating

City by city data for US markets is just out showing how much prices fell in the year and how far they’ve come down since the market top.  Here’s what last year looked like in some major US markets:

South of the border: city -by-city breakdown of latest Case-shiller data

Las Vegas: Prices down 8.8%, and 61% below peak.
Los Angeles: Prices down 5.2%, and 41% below peak.
Miami: Prices down 3.8%, and 51% below peak.
New York: Prices down 2.9%, and 24% below peak.
Phoenix: Prices down 1.2%, and 55% below peak.
Portland: Prices down 4%, and 29% below peak.
San Francisco: Prices down 5.4%, and 41% below peak.
Seattle: Prices down 5.6%, and 32% below peak.

Remember, it’s not a bubble, it’s a balloon.  Balloons don’t pop, they deflate.  Slowly over the course of many years.

Hat tip to VMD for the link.

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[…]Vancouver Condo Info » US housing market still deflating » Vancouver Condo Info[…]…


Hey Renter Rant,

You didn’t set a 2nd lease, that means you’ve automatically moved to what’s called month-to-month in the BC Residential Tenancy Act.

That is transferred to the new owners which means they have to give you at least 2 months notice PLUS 1 month’s rent if they’re kicking you out.

There are other rules they have to follow as well if they are trying to kick you out, so you should definitely read the relevant parts of the Act, specifically the sections about “Notice to End Tenancy”.

[…] “Enough is fcuking enough. Found out this morning I have to move again. My stupid mistake for not setting a 2nd lease. They are selling and cashing out – can’t blame them. They are friends of my brothers and gave us an indication they were holding long-term. SO STUPID OF ME!!! A 2 year old, prego wife, new job – timing could not be worse! But seriously, I make good money (top 5% of Canadians), have done everything right from a financial planning perspective (pay yourself first, hired experience investors, diversified portfolio blah, blah, blah), analysed the market in detail and it hasn’t made any sense to buy in for YEARS. I couldn’t make myself buy in even back in 2007. But still it keeps going up, and lucky people keep getting to feel smug, and look down their… Read more »


Good work man,hit on their ball hard with facts and reality.Shut their doom-day maniac’s mouth once for all.cheer for the inevitable 1.5 million threadhold in 2014.



We already have a forward market for housing operated by National Bank based on the Teranet HPI (It is “Teranet-National Bank”, after all). It’s just not exchange-traded like the Aussies’: it’s OTC. Maybe we’ll get there…

I’d be more interested in a naked CDS market, though.


@betamax: Thanks Beta. I’ve never been there and can’t really make my mid…


Makaya — Austin is a great city, clean with very friendly people and a great culture, lots of live music. Also home to the U of T. Summers are hot but everyone has AC everywhere. I’d move there in a heartbeat if I had a job lined up.


Does anybody on this blog knows about Austin, Tx? I’ve just got an offer to relocate there from my company. Not quite sure if I should take it yet. Salary will be better, less vacations (which really sucks in my situation), more affordable housing, etc. I would be required to move within the next two months!
If you have been or lived there, how did you like/dislike it?

Thanks guys


@Ulsterman: The Whistler market is a completely different market then the Van market. Whistler is purely a play on discretionary spending. This does however indicate that people are simply just not spending as much as they used to, but does not necessarily reflect what is occurring in GVRD and especially in Vancouver. The Vancouver market is unlike anywhere else in the world. People want to live in a world class city, but are not willing to live up (as in a highrise), they want to live in a house and as a result, due to supply and demand (not saying that there is no speculative buying because there is) house prices are bound to go up or at least stay inflated. If all mainland Chinese individuals were to flood the market with pure speculative positions that they have in the… Read more »

fixie guy

88 patriotz: “You’re assuming that immigration in itself creates jobs.” Not at all. More people means more demand for places to live. This is so obvious it’s incredible to see it contested. The only way around this is via your hidden assumption/misdirection new Canadians are arriving without the financial means to acquire them. That’s patently, demonstrably false. The market eventually absorbs that demand and prices return to a level more in line with historical norms. There’s a strong argument to be made that the market is capable of reacting to a constant rate of immigration because the overall demand remains predictable and permits planning. The situation we’re in is an unpredictable increase in immigration rates driven by federal policy. The government has repeatedly justified it on economic grounds, but if you want to keep voting down simple economics and public… Read more »



If Flaherty lowers the boom like Garth thinks he will, no amount of pumping will help. It’s only slowing the derailment, which is certainly in progress.


@121 I’d be worried if that came to Vancouver. “The index is a major step toward creating new financial contracts” It’ll be just another avenue for speculation. We’ll have RRSPs, TSFAs, and investment funds playing the market on top of the usual idiots speculating.

In a way, the goal of this index would be like the credit default swaps that helped to contribute to the US crises. It takes each individual risk and combines it into an entire entity. This creates a new race to the bottom where the risk takers are immediately rewarded, and the prudent banks are punished with hostile takeovers.

Stage 1: Create a benchmark index to con the investors
Stage 2: Create index funds
Stage 3: Shift risk from banks over to inestors.
Stage 4: Collect $$$

[…] to panic on the housing market -Very few expiries means a quick return to the 15k party. -We’re at the highest inventory for this time of year […]


@Ulsterman: ….In the realtor’s words, “A Steal at $189k”. ….

When it gets down to $80k (and it will), I might take a look.


@McLovin: You mean the average price? You’re tilting at windmills.

[…] “My concern about this continuing decrease in the US house market is that it appears to be setting them up for an increase in business. My job here in Canada could very well be done by an American faciliy within our own company, and now the US is releasing information that only seems to confirm that their economy is starting to finally grow again. A high Canadian dollar and an extremely high cost of living (housing) combine to make me less competitive against my counterparts in the US. They can agree to take lower compensation and still have a nicer house (better standard of living) than I… my productivity levels are comparable or better when comparing apples to apples, but I get less bang for my buck. Housing prices must come down to ensure that Canada is still competitive… Read more »

Hit right on their balls hard with 1000 pounds hammer;but they will never give up while average Vancouver SFH is approaching 1.5 million mark


Fellow Bears,very disappointing numbers on the price of SFH last month.

Regardless of the reasons for the price increase (ie: a few really big sales) it is bullish for the market. We can all spin it any way we want but not one can deny that it is disappointing. The MSN will use this to draw more people in telling them RE can only go up in Vancouver, buy now or be priced our forever, throwing away rent, bears are wrong, its different here.

We all know how this will end but February’s numbers just pumped a ton of air into this balloon. As much as it pains me, I think the party hats will need to sit in the closet for a while yet. This market might be on the way to the hospital but it not dead yet.


Up in Whistler and noticed the following advert in The Pique newspaper:

Top Floor Studio in Market Pavillion
(long description)
Phase 1 – unrestricted owner-use
Owner paid $310k – Must be sold

In the realtor’s words, “A Steal at $189k”. Ouch! I thought real estate always went up? Why isn’t the massacre of Whistler prices a news story in Vancouver?


@chopper: “Sorry, I’d be happy to tell you a specific location except for the fact that I don’t want to advertise where I live.”

Yes the real estate cartel might track you down if you gave away the neighborhood. Or you could just be making the story up?


@Eddie: Yeah dude, but one of them is is Hawaii. I heard it rains there all the time, who wants to live there? Everybody wants to live in Vancouver with our even climate, we have the classic vacation spot.

Ever seen the TV show Vancouver 5.0? There’s always hot babes in bikinis walking around and the sun is always shining. Who can resist that?


Is there a lot more people visiting this site? I’ve noticed that the # of votes received by paulb has gone significantly up, and much faster, that just even a month ago.

Has anybody else noticed it?

By the way, Larry’s comments are pretty funny today. Last month, he had a fairly bearish view, and now he’s back in pumping mode. He might be in for a big disappointment, and very soon.

Prices are up, sales are down. This is a very familiar divergence pattern to all the traders out there… That’s just a confirmation that we have indeed reached the peak. Can’t wait for the spring and summer season to be over. Then we’ll see exactly in which shape the market is, and it won’t be pretty (I mean for the over-leveraged owners…).