Foreclosure tours come to BC

Remember just after the US bubble peaked? There were foreclosure bus tours in places like Vegas and Miami.

Did you ever think you’d see something like that in British Columbia?

Apparently it’s happening on Vancouver island right now.

This video clip from CHEK news shows people shopping for a good deal to flip or rent out now that there are so many owners going into foreclosure who were unable to flip or rent out their property.

Might be a tad early on that one.

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rp1
Guest
rp1

Sup dawg, we heard people went bust flipping houses so we’re here to flip houses.

registered
Member
registered

Wait for it: “HAM foreclosure tours, Vancouver is going up!”

victoria
Member
victoria

And they said Victoria was untouchable!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Some shrewd investors.

The first guy is here to flip houses. Someone should tell him he is a little late to the game.

Then the lady at the end says she thought you just paid what ever was owing on the mortgage to buy a foreclosure. Hey lady if it is a foreclosure there is likely more owing on the mortgage than the market value of the house. That is why it is in foreclosure and the owners didn’t just sell it.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
We’ve seen a wave of HAM leaving China over the past few years, which is obviously starting to slow. I’m convinced that this is our last HAM year of note since I’m convinced this final trickle (15 or so $10mil purchases) is all about getting their dirty money out before the regime change. After the change, I’m anticipating a huge drop in HAM for this reason (there will be a couple years before anyone tries to sneak big money out until they get a feel for things…if there’s any big money left), plus by then the Chinese economy will be in huge free fall. If the bulls think spring 2012 is a disappointment, what until spring 2013. Also, check out yesterday’s post by ‘Taiwan’ on RET. I can’t provide the link as that site is blocked at work.
Bailing in BC
Guest
Bailing in BC

When this house sold in Whistler in 1999 it was 7.9 million the most expensive house in Canada

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11380354&PidKey=-100715812

The price just dropped approximately 3 million (perhaps a realtor could give us the exact previous price) or 30% in one price change.

VanRant
Guest
VanRant

My ex is working for one of the big banks dealing in the real estates loans and she said the economy in China has definitely turned and the HAMs are coming to Canada to sell their properties.

mattymatt123
Guest
mattymatt123

LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So many stupid people about to get burned.
Common sense isn’t so common….

Oilman
Guest
Oilman

I love how the dork with the baseball cap has no idea what a foreclosure is…..’I thought that you just pay what’s left owing on the house….and that’s not the case.’ She says it as though she’s informing others of this little known fact about intricate finance.

If you don’t understand the basics of foreclosure proceedings, What the f&%@ are you doing touring as a prospective buyer?

gordholio
Member

#5, Anonymous: “Taiwan” or “Taipan”? I know nothing about the former, but the latter, Taipan, is one of the very few people over at RET who’ve made sense during the past couple of years. In early 2011, when Richmond was going crazy and when every multi-millionaire in the world was purportedly staking a claim in the Best Rainforest on Earth, even while Scam Good was piloting a fleet of 747s over White Rock and telling us to get our real estate groove on, even while Global was trumpeting trumped-up condo lineups and bellowing to the world that Vancouver real estate was “HOT,” Taipan was speaking the truth in the midst of a ring of nasty, money-gobbing bulls, developers, and realtors. Man, that guy has taken some serious abuse, yet he’s come back swinging every time.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@VanRant:

>>>HAMs are coming to Canada to sell their properties.<<<

Coming with empty suitcases hoping to fill them up again.

Scott
Guest
Scott

@Oilman: If you don’t understand the basics of foreclosure proceedings, What the f&%@ are you doing touring as a prospective buyer?

I’ll tell you why. It’s because:

Real estate only goes up!

Everybody wants to live here!

They’re not making more land!

And a hundred other nonsensical justifications that appeal to greed but don’t always work out so simply in reality.

jesse
Member

For the record, this was April inventory and sales in past years. (A caveat is I’m unsure if REBGV is covering the same territory now compared to then):

Year Inv   Sales MOI
1995 19298 1712 11.3
1996 19374 2715  7.1
1997 18969 2987  6.4
1998 20578 1788 11.5
1999 16958 2017  8.4
2000 15823 1723  9.2
2001 14921 2253  6.6
2002 12275 3785  3.2
2003 10213 3095  3.3
2004  9913 4106  2.4
2005 11637 3652  3.2
2006  9638 3345  2.9
2007 12135 3387  3.6
2008 15218 3218  4.7
2009 14891 2900  5.1
2010 15620 3450  4.5
2011 14187 3225  4.4

As much as I’m bearish, based on current sales and inventory data, Realtors are going to be putting food on the table for a while yet. “Vewy vewy bad” looks like 20,000+ inventory and sub-2000 monthly sales. That would kick the stuffing out of prices if it persisted. By the end of April 2012, if I were to guess, we’d be about 16500 inventory and who the heck knows for sales. Say, I don’t know, 3000. That’s an MOI of about 5.5.

In a historical sense, to get anything like the reversion some are prognosticating, we’ll need MOI closer to 10. It’s happened before during the peak selling season, so food for thought.

Dante
Guest
Dante

Oilman “If you don’t understand the basics of foreclosure proceedings, What the f&%@ are you doing touring as a prospective buyer?”

Greed. you can see in their eyes, pure greed.

good-format
Guest
good-format

April inventory and sales in past years
Copied from jesse (#13)

Year   Inv    Sales  MOI
1995  19,298  1712  11.3
1996  19,374  2715   7.1
1997  18,969  2987   6.4
1998  20,578  1788  11.5
1999  16,958  2017   8.4
2000  15,823  1723   9.2
2001  14,921  2253   6.6
2002  12,275  3785   3.2
2003  10,213  3095   3.3
2004   9,913  4106   2.4
2005  11,637  3652   3.2
2006   9,638  3345   2.9
2007  12,135  3387   3.6
2008  15,218  3218   4.7
2009  14,891  2900   5.1
2010  15,620  3450   4.5
2011  14,187  3225   4.4
jesse
Member

@good-format: Thanks g-f, I’ll get it right eventually!

curious lurker
Member
curious lurker

@jesse:

if I were to guess, we’d be about 16500 inventory and who the heck knows for sales.

Why so low with inventory?
We’re already at 15.5k and we’re not yet 1/2 way through march. Listings are supposed to accelerate from now on aren’t they?
If I were to guess, I think it will be more like 18k inventory by end of April.

b5baxter
Member

@jesse:

If the inventory trend of the last 30 days continues we will be at 18,300 in inventory by the end of April. In 2008 and 2010 we saw the trend basically stay the same until May/June so it is possible.

Generally I agree with your comments that things are not looking like a full blown correction…..yet.

Anonymouse
Guest
Anonymouse

Foreclosure tours must be great for the banks if they’re able to provoke a bidding war during the court proceedings.

VMD@work
Guest
VMD@work
@jesse: “By the end of April 2012, if I were to guess, we’d be about 16500 inventory and who the heck knows for sales. Say, I don’t know, 3000. That’s an MOI of about 5.5.” – At current sales pace in March, we’re at -30% vs Mar 2011. If April sales pace don’t pick up dramatically, we might expect -20% to -30% vs Apr 2011, let’s say -25%. 3225*75% = 2418. – Inventory-wise, in terms of official REBGV numbers (which is usually a few hundred less than paulB’s # due to catchment area/expiries), it’s reasonable to expect an increase of 2500-3500 (According to Baxter’s inventory graph and my spreadsheet, 2012’s inventory growth rate is similar to 2008’s trendline, when we saw an inventory gain of approx 3500 from Feb-April. Let’s assume by April we gain 3000 from Feb 2012 =… Read more »
VMD@work
Guest
VMD@work

@VMD@work:
Correction: last sentence should be “If sales tank by 30% vs April/11 while inventory grows by 3500 vs Feb 2012”

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

re: Inventory levels…

Just think of ALL THE NEW construction that has been added since 2008. LOTS of inventory that is not even on the MLS.

I drive by new builds daily. Many are just beginning completion.

Just wait when the big companies (Onni, Polygon, etc.) start the price cuts. Gonna be ugly.

Anonymouse
Guest
Anonymouse

@Boombust:

“Just think of ALL THE NEW construction that has been added since 2008.”

Would be interesting to calculate inventory in terms of percentage of total number of dwellings.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Current MOI is exactly 6, the highest mid-March level since before the bubble started.

Inventory is over 15.5K, also the highest for this time of year since before the bubble started.

It’s getting interesting now.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anonymouse:

Another thought – dont foreclosures pay generous commission to the representing agent?

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