Friday Free-for-all!

Hey everyone, it’s FRIDAY!  Do you know what that means?  That means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread.  Let’s hop to the links, here are a few recent stories to kick off the chat:

Immigrants flee cities due to affordability
Vancouver affordability task force has recommendations
Vancouver youth exodus
If you don’t use a REALTOR you might die
Encouraging a rush to the exits?
40 min Australian housing bubble documentary (ht DeanBC)
Canada’s dirty little sub-prime secret

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes and have an excellent weekend!

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blueskies
Guest
blueskies

neologism:

AHBS

ad hoc buyers strike

enough to strike fear into
the black little hearts
of REIC adherents everywhere

VMD
Member
ANOTHER Bubble-warning will be released by TD Bank today: [Ottawa urged to take concrete steps to limit growing consumer debt] 3/15/2012 Mr. Alexander, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, says the government, which has tightened mortgage rules three times since 2008, should step into the housing market again and gradually roll out a series of steps to ensure the risk doesn’t get worse. “We want to ensure that the imbalance we have doesn’t get any bigger, so the economy over the medium term can weather the inevitable future adjustment in interest rates,” Mr. Alexander said in an interview. “If we incrementally lean against credit growth while we have low rates, it will be a better outcome for the economy.” In a report he will release Friday, Mr. Alexander recommends four possible measures: 1. the maximum amortization period for government-insured mortgages should… Read more »
jesse
Member

“…for fear of causing the very economic damage that policy makers are trying to prevent.”

Gold. Save us O government!

patriotz
Member

@VMD:
“for fear of causing the very economic damage that policy makers are trying to prevent.”

Amazing how people who should know better don’t understand that the economic damage is actually caused by people paying too much for RE, not by prices returning to sensible levels.

patriotz
Member
Renting or buying in Vancouver can pay off There are compelling reasons for Metro Vancouver residents to buy into the region’s real estate market. Prices keep going up, meaning housing will be a more expensive investment in the future, and that also implies that potential buyers are letting a good investment opportunity pass them by unless they jump in now. You mean prices are going to keep going up just because they’ve gone up? Rafael Reis and his sister Cynthia Reis admire their parents for buying a home and paying it off soon after arriving in Canada from Portugal. “When my parents go to Portugal, my dad always has a set of keys in his pocket because he’s so proud of being a homeowner,” Rafael said. Cynthia has bought a condo in New Westminster. You admire your parents for buying… Read more »
registered
Member
registered

“Vancouver affordability task force has recommendations”

A big congrats to fellow Netizen Dave (accepting in absentia.) The Vision solution is a string of bullet points intended to ease developer costs. How Moonbeam proposes the reduced cost of development is passed to the voters, instead of pocketed by developers selling at market rates, is presumably a task for a new, well-compensated, committee made up of developers.

patriotz
Member

@fixie guy:
“The Vision solution is a string of bullet points intended to ease developer costs.”

Well that’s not what the article says, so could you tell us how you came to this conclusion?

Regarding what the article does say, fee simple row housing has long been advocated by many on this forum. I would say it would have a much bigger impact if implemented in the suburbs, since they account for the great majority of TH development. Good luck with that since the RE industry obviously would prefer strata to lock owners into maintenance contracts.

The other items are relatively inconsequential IMHO.

Rob A.
Guest
Rob A.

I agree but this stuff doesn’t apply to downtown Vancouver. Downtown Vancouver is vibrant with cafes and restaurants. It’s where the action is, so it will always be a desirable place to live.

Don Lapre
Member
Don Lapre

“Many parts of Canada had no winter. The question is has the market we have been experiencing taken business from the spring market”

The weather is potentially hurting REALTORS® this spring, won’t somebody please think of the children?!

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/15/with-winter-housing-sales-up-fears-of-meltdown-in-spring-demand/

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Rob A.:
Old spam bot is old.

Apocarypse Now
Guest
Apocarypse Now

And Gordon Gibson writes that we should stop creating more supply:
“Time to put brakes on Vancouver’s growth.” Sun,Mar 16/12

http://www.vancouversun.com/Gordon+Gibson+Time+brakes+Vancouver+growth/6309123/story.html

“The city is growing and we have to put people somewhere. If not here, then where? Good question. Simple answer, which is “elsewhere.” Try Surrey. Or Chilliwack, Kelowna, Nelson, Calgary, Seattle, Regina, Chicago, the world.”

real_professional
Member
Not much of a name...
Member
Not much of a name...

@patriotz: The entire comparison is flawed right from the start. The so-called financial advisor fails to account for the fact that the hypothetical buyer would not qualify for the mortgage. The maximum purchase price they would qualify for would be about $380,000 based on that down payment.

There are other flaws in the calculations and assumptions, but it is all a moot point. Some financial advisor he is when he doesn’t even understand the basics.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Apocarypse Now: from the article:

“Yes, we need to make accommodation for people wanting to downsize but still live in their old neighbourhood. But that is about all and it is quite do-able. We don’t need to make accommodation for everyone who comes from away and would like to live here.

Vancouver’s quiet neighbourhoods like Grandview or Kensington or Commercial Drive or Kerrisdale or Dunbar or Kitsilano are pearls beyond price. They need to be vigorously defended.

They might not be. We may already have reached a tipping point where the voters in the crowded downtown so outweigh those in the quiet uptown that the density battle is over and highrises will sprout everywhere. “Densification” sounds like a wonderful enviro idea. Until you have to live there, at which point it is too late.

That’s gonna make Jesse happy [/sarcasm]!

chilled
Member
chilled

http://www.prewarbuick.com/img/features/jed_clampetts_buick/b472f7e0.jpg

Has anyone considered that an “immigrant exodus” from the Lower Mainland will force people from Northern BC TO The Lower Mainland?

registered
Member
registered
@7 patriotz Says: “Well that’s not what the article says, so could you tell us how you came to this conclusion?” What Vancouver real estate article does? Here are the bullet points: · Expediting housing applications that address affordable rental; · Rapid development of a strategy for implementing inclusionary zoning of rental housing in the Cambie Corridor; · Exploring the viability of using city-owned land to leverage affordable rental housing, including non-profit and co-op housing; · Advocating to the provincial government to streamline approvals for fee-simple row housing.” All speak to streamlining the process for developers bringing product to market, which is a net savings in time and planning costs. How does the first one, expediting applications, result in a benefit to the market? All it does is reduce the planning time, the quantity of product is multiple variables. Likewise… Read more »
Makaya
Member
Makaya
China ‘wealth exodus’ underestimated The scale of the exodus of wealth from China caused by investor immigration is much larger than previous estimated, according to China Daily’s interviews with emigration agents and experts. Last month, Legal Evening News, a Beijing metropolis daily, said 10 billion yuan ($1.57 billion) has found its way abroad annually since 2009. The figure was based on the investor emigration requirement and the number of investor emigrants publicized by the governments of the United States, Canada and Australia. Investor emigrants to those three countries are believed to account for 80 percent of the total number of Chinese emigres. However, emigration agents said the figure underestimates the real scale. That’s because many people will transfer more money to their new ‘home’ countries once they’ve obtained permanent residency. “Usually they will at least buy a house after they… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

The Marine Gateway project is going on sale tomorrow. It is a massive project going in south of Marine Drive near Cambie. Possibly the worst location in Vancouver in the middle of an industrial area surrounded by a cement plant, the Vancouver garbage dump transfer station and the translink bus depot.

Rennie is marketing it and he must be confident of a sell out based on his rules for purchasing posted on the Greater Fool blog. Sorry everyone there is a limit of one per person in line so you better get your whole family lined up.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Suites.jpg

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Look at the 2 bedrooms being offered at Marine Gateway. A spacious 628 square feet. They came up with a new concept to make it work. Combine the kitchen and living room and use mini furniture.

http://marinegateway.com/homes/suite-tours/#/suite/suite-2007-south/

patriotz
Member

@chilled:
“Has anyone considered that an “immigrant exodus” from the Lower Mainland will force people from Northern BC TO The Lower Mainland?”

Why, are they running out of land up there?

If you mean the immigrants are going to take jobs away from the locals, do you think they’d rather move to Vancouver to serve lattes rather than to Fort McMoney?

chilled
Member
chilled

@patriotz:

Patriotz, humor is an odd thing. What one person deems humorous another person doesn’t. The worst scenario is the individual who doesn’t even recognize the attempt at humor. Regardless, you fail on all accounts, again.

Last year at work I commented about how I hate daylight savings time because “I have to get up at 2:00am and adjust all the clocks.” Everyone laughed except one colleague who got quite aggressive, actually called me “stupid” for not adjusting the clocks before I went to bed. Were you that person??

Devore
Member
Devore

@Makaya:

Based on the assumption that 80 percent of the 2,000 investor immigrants would buy a house at an average price of C$500,000, Canada’s investor immigrant program alone could draw C$2.4 billion from China.

The real estate money is dead money sitting in the house. It’s not doing any good for Canada, from an investment perspective. Displaced local lottery winners simply turn around and buy somewhere else, as majority of house purchases are between individuals, people buying from each other. (The stat was 69% of purchases are by movers-uppers.)

There is obviously some benefit to feds from the interest free $800k 5 year loan, but does it offset the costs of educating and providing health care to those households.

Devore
Member
Devore

@Anonymous: I agree with the mini furniture, although I don’t see dimensions anywhere on the plans (very convenient). Looks cramped even on the drawings. But the “open” living space plan, including kitchen open to the living space, is a trend that’s been developing for years, and makes sense for how people live today. It’s just obviously getting a little squished in the square footage race to the bottom.

Devore
Member
Devore

@Devore:

There is obviously some benefit to feds from the interest free $800k 5 year loan, but does it offset the costs of educating and providing health care to those households.

Conveniently this is not solely a federal responsibility, so there very well may be a case for them in running this program.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@Makaya:

I was just about to post that article.

“Usually they will at least buy a house after they get residency,” said Cai Hong, a manager with emigration consulting company HHL Overseas Immigration & Education.

Another reason that people favor Canada is the country’s welfare system.

“Most of the investor immigrants go to Canada for their kids’ education,” Cai said. The country offers free pre-college education for permanent residents, and their children can enjoy a college education at less than one-third of the tuition fee paid by international students pay.

Hooray, the Immigrant Investor program works!

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