Friday Free-for-all!
Hey, it’s springtime in paradise! It’s also the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another news roundup and open topic discussion thread for the weekend. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
-It’s looking like a day for a 16k party
-RE/Max: Housing off to a strong start
-Who’s in charge of regulation?
-Expect no housing moves in budget
-CMHC to dramatically curtail growth
-Risks of CMHC mortgage cover
-What now Mr. Flaherty?
-Affordable housing, why bother?
-10 story wooden condo tower
-UBC housing action plan (VIDEO)
-People don’t like a driving tax
-No springtime for chinese property market
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So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
March 23rd, 2012 at 1:30 am 1
They really mean “10 story particle board condo tower”.
Canada is taking construction shittiness to the next level…
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March 23rd, 2012 at 2:36 am 2
I’m getting a little worried. I thought an inventory of 16,500 by the end of March would be safe as houses. But I’m thinking I’ve overestimated as it looks like more and more listings are being pulled or expiring. However the sales/list ratio is still looking bearish.
But we may not need to look at inventory as to the main indicator of a slowing market. Slowing sales are a good enough indication to me that buyers are running out of money. I think the condo market is going to be the first to post a significant fall as I think it has the highest percentage of over-leveraged investors/speculators.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 3:55 am 3
And this is the real story. Jimbo wants to keep the bubble going, so he’s assigning CMHC’s remaining headroom to homedebtors rather than to banks which want to insure their existing mortgage portfolios.
Diabolical. The banks will still be falling all over themselves to issue mortgages – because they need the business – but they won’t be able to get protection from losses on existing uninsured mortgages.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 7:23 am 4
And, just for Friday, here are some crocodile tears: Houses are never just investments
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March 23rd, 2012 at 8:19 am 5
Why has this not been posted on the front page for fodder on this blog? This is big news! First Australia. Now London. Next Canada?…I can only dream.
http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/10987/sector-watch/budget-2012-london-property-meltdown.html
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March 23rd, 2012 at 8:30 am 6
CPI/Core CPI rises for 3 straight months.
Core-CPI is at its highest level since Dec 2008
If it keeps heading up, BoC’s gonna be under more pressure to hike rates..
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/price-indexes/cpi/
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March 23rd, 2012 at 8:56 am 7
Telus Garden Pre-Sale on Craigslist:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reo/2895388482.html
“You can make down payment of 15%- 20% of $300,000 1 bedroom now, and 3 years after the construction is over, the value of the property will go at 35% up”
That’s quite a bold promise by the seller. I wonder if he’s guaranteeing that 35% increase.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 8:58 am 8
And a Marine Gateway flipper,already;
“SOLD OUT – LAST CHANCE TO OWN @ MARINE GATEWAY if you missed out”
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reo/2916630369.html
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March 23rd, 2012 at 9:27 am 9
@Apocarypse Now: I wonder if he’s guaranteeing that 35% increase.
If he could guarantee the increase he wouldn’t be selling it. It’s just as likely (or more likely) to be worth 35% less after 3 years.
Just ask buyers at the Olympic Village.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 9:36 am 10
Does anyone here remember news stories a couple of years ago about developers going after presales buyers for the difference between the contract price and the current (lower) market value of their condos?
I’m trying to remember if people who bought from flippers were able to get out of their deals and it was the person that originally signed the contract with the developer was screwed?
Let’s say Farah Flipper buys a presale in Marine Gateway and sells it to Johnny Howmuchamonth. The unthinkable happens and the market starts to crash. Upon completion the unit has a market value 35% less than the contract price and Johnny decides he doesn’t want to buy the unit, he’d rather just give up his deposit and walk away.
Does the developer go after Farah or Johnny for the difference between the contract price and the current market value when they resell the condo?
What’s the legal status of these presales contract resales?
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March 23rd, 2012 at 9:39 am 11
Telus Garden prices are out: https://www.mylasso.com/FileWarehouse/Users/User_10116/Documents/TELUS%20Garden%20VIP%20package%20final.pdf
Looks like $700/sf to $1000/sf. Actually, $/sf goes UP as the unit gets bigger. When you’re renting, $/sf goes DOWN as the unit gets bigger. The only way to explain this inversion is that prices have nothing to do with fundamentals?
Also, doesn’t the tower seem asymmetrical? Like it’s going to tip over..
Best part is you’re being forced to use Telus TV and internet. It’s built into your strata fees (which are $0.48/sf!)
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March 23rd, 2012 at 9:45 am 12
And here’s the price chart that hopefully fits on a mobile phone…
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March 23rd, 2012 at 9:46 am 13
@Yaya: I did a little search and found the answer to my own question. Apparently the original flipper holds responsibility in something goes wrong with a presales resale:
http://www.househunting.ca/homes-and-gardens/theprovince/story.html?id=5a95b7ea-5396-409f-b925-70e2325338e3
For people that think this is an unlikely scenario here are a couple of other links I came across:
Amacon and Onni sue presales buyers for backing out
That was in 2009 when developers went after buyers for damages beyond their original deposit. Looks like things went better for OV presales buyers, they only went after the deposits so most of their losses were capped at around $100,000:
http://vancouvercondo.info/2011/02/ov-buyers-sued-for-wanting-out.html
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March 23rd, 2012 at 9:52 am 14
Re: “Affordable housing in Vancouver? Why?”, from the author’s Sun bio:
“After graduation, he applied at every newspaper in Canada and received two replies: one from the Owen Sound Packet and Times, one from The Vancouver Sun. The Sun paid more handsomely. He has been with the paper since 1976, an awfully long time to work in one place.”
This ‘journalist’ has been in Vancouver since the mid Seventies and has the gall to draw folksy comparisons between his and contemporary experience? No point holding Pete to task for ignorance of affordability statistics, his employer doesn’t treat research as a job requirement.
Wrapping dead fish in that rag should be actionable by PETA.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 9:59 am 15
@mino3:
“(which are $0.48/sf!)”
Doesn’t sound outrageous to me. Seems on the lower-end of the spectrum, actually.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 10:01 am 16
@Yaya:
“What’s the legal status of these presales contract resales?”
Probably whatever it says in the contracts that the presales buyers sign.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 10:14 am 17
@Yaya: I’m not a lawyer, I only play one in my relationship.
I seem to recall that the developer has every right to go after Farah Flipper since her name is on the pre-sale contact.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 10:59 am 18
CMHC To Gradually Up Mtg Insurance
March 23, 2012
OTTAWA (MNI) – In order to slow the booming Canadian housing market, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation this week signalled it plans to increase mortgage insurance gradually over the next few years in an effort to hold-back the growth in the mortgage market.
A C$600 billion limit on the amount of insurance CMHC can have outstanding remains the reason for the change. By curtailing the credit available to borrowers, the government intends to lay out a soft landing for the booming housing market — valued at close to C$1.1 trillion.
The CMHC administers all the mortgages in the Canadian market and tries to control risk in the market by providing mortgage insurance. The recent surge in the housing market has inflated CMHC’s insurance portfolio significantly and it is expected to grow to more than C$500 billion this year.
Over the next four years, CMHC expects its insurance portfolio to grow to C$587.7 billion, and forecasts a growth of C$30.8 billion between 2011 to 2014, a significant slow down from the C$170 billion increase it recorded for the 2007-10 period.
https://mninews.deutsche-boerse.com/index.php/cmhc-tries-cool-can-hsg-mkt-gradually-mtg-insurance?q=content/cmhc-tries-cool-can-hsg-mkt-gradually-mtg-insurance
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March 23rd, 2012 at 11:03 am 19
#6 @VMD: “Core-CPI is at its highest level since Dec 2008
If it keeps heading up, BoC’s gonna be under more pressure to hike rates..”
I doubt the Bank of Canada makes decisions according to their mandate anymore. They have been making excuses since Fall 2010, when all indications are they should have raised to 1.25%. We’re still waiting on that. In the meantime, they have topped Alan Greenspan. My only hope is that the name “Mark Carnage” gets some traction after this.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 11:10 am 20
@Anonymouse:
“What’s the legal status of these presales contract resales?”
Without reading the particular contract at issue, it is impossible to say. Contracts can be drafted in infinite variations and talking about the legal status of one in a vaccum is not meaningful.
However, if the contract includes a term that allows it to be assigned, then generally speaking and if there are no terms to the contrary, the new assignee (the person who takes over the contract from the original “buyer) steps into the shoes of the original buyer and is subject to all the obligations to the developer that the original buyer had.
To have an assignment that would preserve the original buyer’s liability to the developer seems absurd and if that was the case no rational original buyer would ever assign a contract to someone else because they get no benefit and all the liability.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 11:26 am 21
“What’s the legal status of these presales contract resales?”
Without reading the particular contract at issue, it is impossible to say. Contracts can be drafted in infinite variations and talking about the legal status of one in a vaccum is not meaningful.
However, if the contract includes a term that allows it to be assigned, then generally speaking and if there are no terms to the contrary, the new assignee (the person who takes over the contract from the original “buyer) steps into the shoes of the original buyer and is subject to all the obligations to the developer that the original buyer had.
To have an assignment that would preserve the original buyer’s liability to the developer seems absurd and if that was the case no rational original buyer would ever assign a contract to someone else because they get no benefit and all the liability.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 11:28 am 22
@VMd @work:
nvm, it’s the same news as yesterday’s. I thought CMHC is about to increase its mortgage insurance fees. But..they may just do that as well, who knows.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 11:43 am 23
@Yaya:
“Does the developer go after Farah or Johnny for the difference between the contract price and the current market value when they resell the condo?”
The developer has a contract with Farah. They have no legal standing to go after Johnny, because Johnny has a contract with Farah, not with them.
The developer sues Farah. She loses, almost certainly. She in turn can choose to sue Johnny, depending on their contract she may win, she may lose, but considering she’s already fighting one losing legal battle and being forced to take on a mortgage she probably can’t handle it’s doubtful she’d have the resources to hire a lawyer to go after Johnny.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 11:46 am 24
@fixie guy: The baby boomers are the true entitlement generation.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 12:28 pm 25
@Yaya: “I’m trying to remember if people who bought from flippers were able to get out of their deals and it was the person that originally signed the contract with the developer was screwed?”
All or most presales have terms for assignment in the contract. There is often an assignment fee paid to the developer. The developer has to approve the assignment. If the developer approves the assignment there is no liability for the flipper unless this is specifically in the assignment contract which would not be normal.
There may have been cases where a flipper does not involve the developer in assigning the unit. It those cases they are still liable to the developer. You would have to be pretty stupid to do an assignment like that. But then again you have to be pretty stupid to buy a presale in this market.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 12:33 pm 26
@VMD: The one thing I always find interesting about the CPI is that they always like to strip away gas price increases, yet when it comes to retail sales, that stat is included. Hmmm….
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March 23rd, 2012 at 12:33 pm 27
@Drachen: “The developer has a contract with Farah. They have no legal standing to go after Johnny, because Johnny has a contract with Farah, not with them.”
In an assignment the contract is taken over by Johnny and this is approved by the developer. Johnny would then be liable as the developer agreed to this in the assignment contract. If the developer does not agree there is no assignment.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 3:36 pm 28
they can’t be serious?
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=Vancouver%20West&ARPK=37,44,36,26,10105,41,21,32,30,28,23,33,22,39,24,43,29,40,34,853,31,35,42,27&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=V937893&rowc=85&rowp=81&BCD=GV&imdp=&RSPP=20&AIDL=26&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=false&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=1&MNBD=0&PTYTID=1&MNPRC=200000&MXPRC=900000&SCTP=RA
I’m seeing A LOT of price reductions on stale kitsilano listings:)
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March 23rd, 2012 at 3:48 pm 29
@VMd @work: “I thought CMHC is about to increase its mortgage insurance fees”
To cover the systemic risks in the system, I think CMHC would have to increase their fees significantly, way more than would be able to be swallowed by borrowers.
According to CMHC, insurance is available without restriction for homeowners without at least 20% equity. That may be useful information in the future.
Food for thought question of the day: by instructing CMHC to cap bulk insurance on low-LTV loans, has the government significantly reduced, or simply delayed, their underwriting of loans?
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March 23rd, 2012 at 3:48 pm 30
hunger games is a parable for how the baby boomers fucked over the next generation. that’s why it’s so popular.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 3:50 pm 31
@Anonymous:
Most of them weren’t approved by the developers. There may be some cases where the developer signed off, but in the vast majority of cases the assignment was a simple transfer.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 4:29 pm 32
Sell-list has been moving up the last 2 weeks, but let’s put that in some context. See the 21-day moving average here.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 4:30 pm 33
@Anonymous:
The developer would have to be very very careful about checking out the assignee before releasing the original buyer because otherwise it would provide a way for the original buyer to get out by using a straw buyer.
Don’t know what actually happens, as the only thing I’m less interested in than buying a condo is buying a pre-sale.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 4:54 pm 34
@Apocarypse Now: The guy selling this unit is a real estate agent.
Here he is:
http://www.sutton.com/realtor/amer/
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March 23rd, 2012 at 5:15 pm 35
@Drachen: I don’t understand how the transfer could work if they weren’t developer approved. Are people forking tens of thousands of dollars over to someone on craigslist for an IOU assignment? There must be a contract or lawyer involved at some point, although I guess I should no longer be surprised when it comes to some of the stupidity involved in the Vancouver speculation market.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 5:16 pm 36
New Listings 204
Price Changes 113
Sold Listings 123
TI:15940
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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March 23rd, 2012 at 5:26 pm 37
@Makaya: Probably just got his license last month
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March 23rd, 2012 at 5:46 pm 38
@Drachen: “Most of them weren’t approved by the developers.”
Then they are not ‘assignments’ if the developer is not involved. The term assignment is referring to assigning the right of the contract. You cannot do that without both parties of the contract agreeing. If you did it without the developer approval it would make no sense for either party. The flipper is stupid because he is still liable. The buyer is stupid because there is no guarantee he gets the condo if the developer is not involved. Every presale has an assignment procedure in the contract. I would think most people would follow it.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 5:50 pm 39
@patriotz: “The developer would have to be very very careful about checking out the assignee before releasing the original buyer because otherwise it would provide a way for the original buyer to get out by using a straw buyer.”
Yes I guess but I don’t see developers checking out the original presale buyers. They just accept the deposit and that is it. The original buyer could be a ‘straw buyer’ too. I guess the developers might become a little more diligent if prices did start falling. But then who is going to take over an assignment if it was underwater?
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March 23rd, 2012 at 6:35 pm 40
Good 2-minute spot on Global tonite. Didn’t pull a lot of punches and everybody seemed quite seriously concerned. It posed some of the frightening scenarios most over-extended homeowners will likely face going forward, discussed extreme overbuilding, and looked at the very real potential for upcoming interest rate increases and lending revisions. Michael Levy could have gone a lot further than his 10-15% correction prognostication, and the final recommendation of “locking in now” could EASILY have been appended to include “sell now” and/or “continue renting,” but otherwise this is the type of stuff we’ve rarely seen until recently. Apparently even the RE industry shills at Global can see the writing on the wall.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 6:47 pm 41
Has this been posted? seems that Condo development might not have sold out in 4 hours
http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/03/whats-wrong-with-this-picture.html
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March 23rd, 2012 at 6:48 pm 42
@VMd @work:
I wonder at what rate are CMHC insured mortgages being paid off completely, and thus removed from their liabilities? It’s probably not very high as you’d expect 20-25 year old mortgages to be of significantly lower value than those taken out today, but it would still be interesting to know.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 6:49 pm 43
@Gordholio
yes Global was downright bearish!
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March 23rd, 2012 at 6:50 pm 44
@gordholio:
‘the final recommendation of “locking in now” could EASILY have been appended to include “sell now”’
Why should somebody “sell now” if they’re happy with the place in which they live, plan to remain there long-term, and can afford to continue the payments even when interest rates increase? Whatever happened to not treating your home as an investment?
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March 23rd, 2012 at 6:51 pm 45
Funny story…
I was looking to buy patio furniture at SEARS-online. Before doing so, I asked them where the Dakota patio set is made, because I am not willing to buy products made in China, since they break down so easily.
Their answer ?!?!?! My question was rejected because they saw it as “inappropriate” ??!?!?!?!?
I was STUNNED!
Bye buy Sear! You will never see me again
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March 23rd, 2012 at 6:57 pm 46
Once in a lifetime chance to cash out at the top of a market tax free and be able to fund the rest of your life might just be a reason to sell now.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 7:09 pm 47
@Anonymous:
Depending on how strong the contract is, there is a (legal) guarantee. On completion, original buyer buys the unit, and immediately transfers it to the second buyer.
All these presale legal machinations are making my brain hurt. The people involved in this is like the last brain cells firing.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 7:42 pm 48
@Devore: “Depending on how strong the contract is, there is a (legal) guarantee. On completion, original buyer buys the unit, and immediately transfers it to the second buyer.”
So the flipper pays the property purchase tax, HST, legal fees, CMHC insurance, interest on the bridge financing to complete with the developer? Then the buyer pays the PPT, CMHC insurance and legal fees again? The 10s of thousands in extra costs aside, both parties have to hope the other party has the means to follow through. Doesn’t make a lot of sense.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 8:39 pm 49
Friday evening jokes…
Borat anthem played by mistake at medals ceremony (video is here.)
and
Why it’s still a good time to buy a home
Good week-end folks!
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March 23rd, 2012 at 8:42 pm 50
RE Marinegarbage way… if they are truly “sold out” the sales center should be lights out, closed please drive thru. I betcha its still open, and guarantee they are not sold out, never ever will be as there will always always be regretfull owners who want out.
Personally i rather live in a tent.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 8:51 pm 51
@DYUGLE:
I met somebody last year who had paid $6,000 for their west-side house 30-something years ago. They had no intention of selling. And it wasn’t because they were waiting for higher prices.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 9:54 pm 52
@Tick Tock: Why not have it both ways? There are probably several presales buyers there that will end up living in a tent.
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March 23rd, 2012 at 10:15 pm 53
Hey kids! Left my job in the lower mainland a few months ago to take care of a sick family member, here in the Okanagan. Start my new job on Monday, in Calgary. Better salary and benefits than what I had in the lower mainland. I’m glad I got out of that over priced shit hole. No sales tax, cheaper gas and better rental prices for houses. I could give two shits about the beauty Vancouver has to offer vs. A higher standard of living. I’ll take winter snow of endless rain any day. Peace bruthas and sistas. I’ll continue tobread this thread as it has become a bit of an obsession of mine see when the meltdown finally occurs. Power to the renters!
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March 23rd, 2012 at 10:45 pm 54
@Tick Tock:
” betcha its still open, and guarantee they are not sold out, never ever will be as there will always always be regretfull owners who want out.”
That raises an interesting question: What is to stop friends and family (or even hired stooges) from “buying” the day it goes on sale and then using the 30-day cooling off period to back out? Could it be that simple?
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March 23rd, 2012 at 11:37 pm 55
@N:
Yes, it’s that simple.
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March 24th, 2012 at 12:08 am 56
#43 Anonymouse: Think about it. First of all, you talk about “home” vs. “investement.” Well, that idea died out around here a very long time ago, didn’t it?
More pertinently, and as even you must admit, there’s a whole whack of people out there who’ve been suckered/deceived/fear-mongered into buying in at the very peak of this bloated bubble. And undoubtedly, considering our lax lending system and the inflated price points that nobody but the uber-rich can afford, a good number of them have clearly done so with bare minimum downpayments and murderous monthly payments.
But given that virtually everyone is now calling for a solid if not severe correction, given the incredible overbuilding we’ve witnessed lately, and given the upcoming changes to mortgage renewals that’ll bury people who really couldn’t afford it in the first place, what the hell is wrong with Global throwing a “sell” recommendation out there? They rather decisively said “lock in,” which is probably right for some, but if you’re one of those who’s going to be completely and totally upside down when that “lock in” period ends, the concept of selling now to the last of the greatest fools may be the very best option.
Indeed, “locking in” and riding this beast downward, for many who’ve bought at the peak, will only intensify future horrors.
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March 24th, 2012 at 12:12 am 57
Is the cooling off period a virtually risk free way to speculate? Can you get your presale, put it on craigslist and then back out if you can’t flip it for easy cash within 30 days?
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March 24th, 2012 at 12:16 am 58
@gordholio:
You must’ve contradicted yourself 3 times in that post.
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March 24th, 2012 at 12:21 am 59
Is the cooling period 30 days?
I recall a place I looked at and the salesperson told me the cooling period to walk away without any commitments was 7 days/
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March 24th, 2012 at 12:41 am 60
@Anonymous:
“The original buyer could be a ‘straw buyer’ too.”
You don’t understand what the term means. A straw buyer is someone who is paid to buy something, to take it off the owner’s hands. Straw buyers are most commonly seen in mortgage fraud where a mortgage is taken out at an inflated price.
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March 24th, 2012 at 12:47 am 61
@Jack:
Gee guys, ever hear of Google:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=bc%20condo%20presale%20cooling%20off&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CGAQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lawsonlundell.com%2Fmedia%2Fnews%2F82_Real_Estate_Pre_Sale_Law.pdf&ei=_nptT4K6J4bf0QGZ7r2vBg&usg=AFQjCNFPb6V6YjssfNtE8S-njeiThoLRIQ&cad=rja
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March 24th, 2012 at 1:20 am 62
@Marinegate:
First it’s 7 days not 30 as noted. Second you can’t flip within the cooling off period because you don’t have a binding contract in the first place.
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March 24th, 2012 at 1:39 am 63
When I purchased my very first condo in 03 that was a strange experience. Inquiring about a 1BR an AMACO agent told me they were all out of them… BUT get this… one buyer just happened to backed out and rescinded his purchase before the 7 day cooling off period. All this happening an hour before I arrived apparently. After signing and giving them a cheque for $5000 I left feeling like the luckiest bastard in town.
Over the years I have observed and deduced all the tricks of the trade.
The way bozos like Rennie create mass hysteria, with their canned line ups and little red dots on a board. It’s all for show people. I was lucky that day because it was the beginning of easy credit. The same games are still being played today as they were almost 10 years ago.
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March 24th, 2012 at 5:44 am 64
23 Rakim Says: “The baby boomers are the true entitlement generation.”
Ironically, the intended moral of that article is anti-entitlement. The author tries to argue, contrary to all logic and fact, that it was always this difficult and expensive to own in Vancouver so people like us shouldn’t expect it.
It’s the standard realtor manipulation of buyer self-worth: “maybe you’re just not good enough to own in Vancouver, may I interest you in something more your speed like Surrey.” If you want daily examples, see RET.
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March 24th, 2012 at 7:52 am 65
Population highlights Q4’11 http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Publications/PeriodicalsReleases/PopulationHighlights.aspx
Continued negative net interprovincial, slower international immigration, overall 1% growth. If housing starts hitting the skids it’s not happy-wappy. Something to keep an eye on.
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March 24th, 2012 at 8:03 am 66
20/20 or Global should do a news article on the scams of pre-sales, fake line-ups etc.. it’s so obviously happening
Set up some fake buyers and hidden cameras and mics along where the line-ups form.
I can’t even imagine buying a condo sight unseen that wasn’t even going to be ready for 3 years. These bought condos are pretty obviously bought with flipping in mind.
If your buying a “home”, you don’t want to wait 3 years to move in, that’s ridic..
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March 24th, 2012 at 10:28 am 67
@jesse
The stats are quite interesting. Looks like the immigration numbers for BC were the 2nd lowest for the last 15 years. Along with all the people leaving the province, the growth rate is very low. This means less renters and less buyers to absorb all the housing currently under construction.
I see the investor class numbers are down by some 30%. Surely this alone will have a big impact. Although it sounds like many “investors” are coming in through the Quebec program and then moving.
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March 24th, 2012 at 10:34 am 68
@vangrl: CBC Marketplace did a good show called Condo Crunch on the marketing of condos back in 2008. Lot’s on tricks and scams, and fake line ups;
Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wl6xs4e7mX0
Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncAp4IvnKYA
Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNyltNIHhgs
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March 24th, 2012 at 10:42 am 69
@jesse: Surprisingly you mention that, I saw it happening already. I already know a small developer who – went almost bankrupt (yes, almost, and this guy used to boast of no problem for him as he can hold his properties and not sell if prices go down)during 2008 crash – has already moved to Winnipeg. This is what a 6 month crash did to a developer, imagine the chaos if it lasts as much 6 times that timeframe, which is being very very optimistic.
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March 24th, 2012 at 12:09 pm 70
I really hope this flipper loses their shirt:
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11704193&PidKey=-1429469753
This place listed for 899,000 back in July 2010 but didn’t sell so what did they do??? Reno! Now it’s listed at $1,433,070 (The probably took the 899,000, added reno costs and a margin to come up with such an odd number…seriously, get that last $70 on the price).
The $534,070 price increase for the reno is more than this house should be worth in it’s current renovated state!!!
I’m predicting 60% fall in prices peak-to-trough for this crash now.
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March 24th, 2012 at 12:36 pm 71
Ha… i just called the presentation center, they told me they are all sold out, “BUT” after today the 7 day back out clause comes to an end, so it likely some people will back out.
Sold out my ass, just try calling next week!
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March 24th, 2012 at 1:38 pm 72
@YLTNboomerang:
“I’m predicting 60% fall in prices peak-to-trough for this crash now.”
I’ve been calling that as a minimum for several years now. I think 60-75% peak to trough, levelling out at about 35% of current values, but if Turner is right about Boomers and the population decreases due to lack of jobs (over 40% of Vancouver jobs are dependant on real-estate one way or another) it could go much, much lower than that. Even if half of the real-estate dependant jobs are lost and you used the minimum 40% directly impacted, that would mean a 20% jump in unemployment and potentially a 20% drop in population. Add that to overbuilding and what does that spell? Phoenix Arizona, or Las Vegas, depending on your particular brand of doom and gloom (only we don’t have gambling or retirement communities as a fall-back).
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March 24th, 2012 at 2:43 pm 73
@Drachen:
You guys have been saying this for thousand of yrs now;isn’t it time to give up and join us.Van SFH keep creeping up skyward.
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March 24th, 2012 at 2:59 pm 74
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/03/24/some-are-saying-that-there-is-no-legitimacy-to-claims-that-working-class-or-low-income-people-should-be-able-to-live-in-the-city-of-vancouver/
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March 24th, 2012 at 3:10 pm 75
ok
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March 24th, 2012 at 3:14 pm 76
If you vote me UP you can have my place in the condo line-up here in Whalley.I have been here for 8 days, mind you all by myself. I have been in 17 bar fights, and that’s just in church.
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March 24th, 2012 at 3:52 pm 77
“I think 60-75% peak to trough, levelling out at about 35% of current values”
Agree here too. Even at 65% off current prices Vancouver would still be expensive compared to similar cities in North America. Many of those cities are no where near bottom and will go down further once interest rates increase.
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March 24th, 2012 at 4:19 pm 78
I have a question for this forum:
What will happen to Vancouver’s rental market if the real estate bubble pops???
A lot of renters seem to intuitively believe a real estate crash will lead to lower rents.
But I can envision a scenario where a real estate crash leads to HIGHER rents. Lots of overextended homeowners who only put 5% down on their homes will get foreclosed on. They will need somewhere to live. They will become renters. Demand for rental housing will increase, leading to higher rents. Foreclosed homeowners probably have higher incomes than renters who never entered the real estate market in the first place. Foreclosed homeowners can then outbid current renters for the little rental stock that we have. So in the end, it will be those on the bottom of the housing food chain–low income renters–who will find themselves out on the streets.
Does this sound plausible? Any way a real estate crash could result in LOWER rents???
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March 24th, 2012 at 4:55 pm 79
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs:
Answer…bloodbath
Prices not sustainable…people will dump via over leveraged.
Stratas are hooped…too many UNsold or empty…existing owners absorb the increased fees/costs
SFH will be rooming houses.
The end.
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March 24th, 2012 at 4:58 pm 80
Preach on Joe Blown (post at VREAA), 100% agree. We sold our city out and if you dare complain, you are a racist.. That said, this bubble is not blowing anytime soon. Truth.
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March 24th, 2012 at 5:00 pm 81
Was out running errands today, more sold signs than for sale signs… we’re still not even close. Need the rates to go up before the shoe drops, imo.
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March 24th, 2012 at 5:24 pm 82
@Vansanity:
It’s all because of Chinese buyers either locals or mainland middle class who are willing to pay a premium for such heavenly city;not like u guys who are betraying this province and Vancouver.Luckily, Chinese and their government are willing to support Vancouver.Thanx,Chinese government.
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March 24th, 2012 at 5:31 pm 83
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs:
Rents have gone up in some post-bubble US cities, and less buyers is likely to mean more renters. That said, it seems to me that rents have gone up quite a bit recently and so they are already quite high relative to incomes. And a real estate bust would be a major hit to the economy which means there would be less money to go around, and would also lower the rate of new household formation, as kids stayed home longer. Also, there are homes that being kept off the rental market now, as the owner finds it easier to rely on appreciation than to rent them out, which may go onto the rental market when the appreciation stops.
All things considered, I would expect rents to stay more or less where they are with maybe some downward pressure.
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March 24th, 2012 at 5:37 pm 84
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs: “Does this sound plausible? Any way a real estate crash could result in LOWER rents???”
You only have to look at other areas where there have been crashes to figure out what will happen. Rents go down. There are many reasons for this but one big factor is if real estate crashes so will a big part of the BC economy.
If you look to the US many of those people who got foreclosed are living in vehicles and in relatives spare rooms. They are not competing for rentals. By the time they get foreclosed they have put ever cent into keeping the house. They are broke, in debt with no credit.
This is what it looks like in Florida.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504803_162-57330017-10391709/a-reporters-story-finding-homeless-families/
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March 24th, 2012 at 5:44 pm 85
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs: Rich Toscano (aka Professor Piggington) did some analysis of the San Diego rental market and determined that rents are more closely tied to inflation and wage growth than speculative bubbles. The result, after 7 punishing years of distress in the San Diego housing market, rents have mostly plodded along with inflation, deviating slightly with some excess supply, but nothing massive.
This makes some sense; rents are based solely on present utility and un-levered; house prices are leveraged and prone to speculation because of future appreciation expectations. So it shouldn’t be surprising that rents plod along even as proverbial blood is on the streets.
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March 24th, 2012 at 6:21 pm 86
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs: There’s a problem in the United States with banks keeping foreclosed inventory empty and rotting. From what I understand, with how CMHC insurance works, that’s not going to happen.
Also, we’ve noticed an encouraging trend of developers renting out condos they can’t sell at their desired prices. Bodes well for renters who can afford that kind of inventory.
IMHO we are going to seeing rising vacancy rates, and rents declining or at least not keeping pace with inflation.
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March 24th, 2012 at 6:28 pm 87
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs:
“Lots of overextended homeowners who only put 5% down on their homes will get foreclosed on. They will need somewhere to live. They will become renters.”
1. Why would an owner-occupier get foreclosed simply because prices have gone down? That doesn’t affect their monthly payments. Sure some ower-occupiers may just quit paying or lose their jobs, but IMHO the majority of foreclosed properties will be owned by speculators and already rented out.
2. Assuming some owner-occupiers get foreclosed, i.e the ownership rate decreases, what happens to their former houses after that?
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March 24th, 2012 at 6:59 pm 88
Here’s what can happen when you leave housing empty in East Van:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ1qSwo3kmE&list=PL11B708BE4E2C6BA8&index=1&feature=plpp_video
Those were different times though, back in 1990. It would be much harsher today as you would see less idealistic hippies and way more mentally-ill, meth-heads. It would degenerate like Occupy Vancouver.
Anyhow, Mayor Gordon Campbell sent in an army of riot police and front-end loaders to end the socialist paradise on Francis Street:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCnkTjbHEjE&feature=BFa&list=PL11B708BE4E2C6BA8&lf=plpp_video
(Five part series. Whether or not you care for the squatters, it was an interesting moment in Vancouver history.)
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March 24th, 2012 at 7:01 pm 89
Here’s what can happen when you leave housing empty in East Van:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ1qSwo3kmE&list=PL11B708BE4E2C6BA8&index=1&feature=plpp_video
Those were different times though, back in 1990. It would be much harsher today as you would see less idealistic hippies and way more mentally-ill, meth-heads. It would degenerate like Occupy Vancouver.
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March 24th, 2012 at 7:02 pm 90
Anyhow, Mayor Gordon Campbell sent in an army of riot police and front-end loaders to end the socialist paradise on Francis Street:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCnkTjbHEjE&feature=BFa&list=PL11B708BE4E2C6BA8&lf=plpp_video
(Five part series. Whether or not you care for the squatters, it was an interesting moment in Vancouver history.)
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March 24th, 2012 at 7:02 pm 91
From Garth’s blog:
————————————————-
Anyways ……Warning to condo owners in BC
New legislation requiring CRF depreciation reports
is here!
65 Randman on 03.24.12 at 12:25 am
At a cost of $5000 -$15000 for a first report and minimum 50% every three years you’ll get to find out
that your condo strata property is gonna need an
increase of minimum 10% and probably 60% more than you are now paying in monthly fees to maintain
a proper financial roadmap for the next 30 years.
How is that gonna sit for your bottom line?
Hell on earth is coming to a tower near you….
===========================================
Anyone know much about this?
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March 24th, 2012 at 7:05 pm 92
Anyhow, Mayor Gordon Campbell sent in an army of riot police and front-end loaders to end the socialist paradise on Francis Street:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCnkTjbHEjE&feature=BFa&list=PL11B708BE4E2C6BA8&lf=plpp_video
(Five part series. Whether or not you care for the squatters, it was an interesting moment in Vancouver history.)
…having problems with spam filter
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March 24th, 2012 at 7:08 pm 93
The East Van squat video is part of an interesting five part series. The fifth part, which the spam filter won’t let me post, shows an army of police and front-end loaders clearing the squat houses under the order of Mayor Gordon Campbell.
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March 24th, 2012 at 8:29 pm 94
RE Marine Gateway sell out… the sad part of Rennie putting on a big show/sell out is that the 100 or so buyers who actually stood in line and bought, were likely sold less than desirable units as the fake buyers/hold backs would have been the premium units. So these innocent folks were more than likely taken advantage of. My guess is that no more than 50% of these actually sold.
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March 24th, 2012 at 9:11 pm 95
Do not count the SOLD signs..
I my neighborhood, they leave them for months. It seems to be a form of advertisement for the Realtor.
The For Sale come, vanish, come back again !?!?!/ On and off the market ?!?!?
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March 24th, 2012 at 9:28 pm 96
RE: Flaherty…
I don’t know whose side I am on.
Flaherty: Here is a bunch of rope
Banks: But wait, we are hanging ourselves
Flaherty: Thats not my problem.
Tax Payers: *gasp*
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March 24th, 2012 at 11:33 pm 97
Do you think the evergreen line will impact RE in poco?
Will they discontinue the West Coast Express?
(My friend wants to buy RE in poco so I am researching for her).
Thanks.
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March 25th, 2012 at 12:12 am 98
Story submission page is back for registered users:
http://vancouvercondo.info/submit
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March 25th, 2012 at 12:25 am 99
Jumping in
Not sure if the Evergreen line will effect the Westcoast express but I would not think it should
The Westcoast express serves all the way from Mission and from the the look of the route The Evergreen line they compliment each other as they probably will meet in port moody at the same station??
So if anything it would improve the transit on the north side of the river
The Westcoast express was probably a major reason on the route choice
But if I find any news I will post
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March 25th, 2012 at 5:30 am 100
@xyz:
Wrong analogy.
It’s “hang the other guy and I won’t hang you” (prisoner’s dilemma).
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March 25th, 2012 at 8:47 am 101
Anecdote Alert
I know a 27 year old female who has a boy friend, not a husband, not fiance, just a boy friend. The two of them are shopping for condos around the lower mainland.
Not only are they young and unmarried, but they also just recently started proper employment. The female has only found full time work in her career path for less than a year and she is in a profession that makes between $50 to $80k/year.
When asked why they want to buy a condo that they don’t plan on living in, the response was “I always dreamed of owning an investment condo”. It gets worse. They believe a condo is “cheap” because they only need a $70K down payment to secure a condo (their figure).
It gets worse: In order to make the down payment, they plan on using their savings of $20K and then borrowing (which has to be paid back) $50K from their parents.
They will be slaughtered
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March 25th, 2012 at 8:58 am 102
Re depreciation reports
Legislation came into effect December 13, 2011 stating strata corporations of 5 units or more must have their first depreciation report done within two years, i.e. by December 13, 2013. The main purpose of the depreciation reports is disclosure. The document will provide an excellent determinate of future risk. Even is the report itself doesn’t force the strata to rethink their planning strategy and increase fees owners (and prospective buyers) will have an insight into their future financial planning, being able to know when major costs may arise. While one would think that planning for the future is a good thing, many condo owners think (hope) they’ll be able to sell before any special assessment for things like a boiler repair comes due. With a specific and detailed report listing future costs and when repairs/maintenance should be done buyers will be able to assess the value of the unit more than by just relying on the real estate agents’ statements. These depreciation reports will have a dramatic impact on property values as now buyers will be more able to assess risks. The monthly maintenance fees may rise in the condos if the strata council takes a pro-active stance but the report doesn’t force anyone to raise monthly fees – its just a listing of what needs to be done and when (although, obviously, raising monthlies would be a better planning tool than just waiting for an emergency).
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March 25th, 2012 at 9:46 am 103
These types of reports are common in Both Alberta and Ontario (don’t know about the other provinces). Overall, I think they are a good idea since they give the condo boards an idea of how to plan out the buildings over the long haul. Yes in some cases it may hurt owners if their condo has upcoming spending, but at least there is transparency which is a plus for potential buyers.
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March 25th, 2012 at 10:06 am 104
[...] local observer Says: March 25th, 2012 at 8:58 am [...]
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March 25th, 2012 at 12:43 pm 105
Here’s an interesting link to a website which should be called, “why spending $400,000 dollars on a pre-sale condo during the world’s greatest high-rise condo bubble makes you nowhere near as smart as you think you are.”
http://poorconstruction.blogspot.ca/2012/02/m5v-condos-tas-designbuild-lifetime.html
While I’m not defending the shoddy workmanship (to which the pictures at the like easily attest), what the hell did you expect? You bought at pre-sale condo during a condo building boom, fer chrissakes! With that much building going on at the same time, there just might be a chance that a few of the people being paid to put these places together may not know what the hell they’re doing, dontcha think?
Now, had you waited until the thing was built, you could have walked into the actual unit that you were considering purchasing and done an inspection prior to having had to fork over the $400K. But, here’s the rub: because you, and thousands like you, are willing to fork over big money for something before it’s built, you are ensuring that the final product will be sub-standard.
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March 25th, 2012 at 1:37 pm 106
@oneangryslav2: I agree that presales buyers enable crappy construction, but that’s just shocking for a brand new building. I’ve seen handyman basement suite renos that look better, and the painting is atrocious!
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March 25th, 2012 at 1:56 pm 107
@oneangryslav2:
The mantra since the early 80′s has been “Everyone is replaceable!”
When you replace tradesmen with drug-addicted monkeys you get exactly this. If you had paid just a fraction more to hire qualified people, your condo might actually be a liveable space and last longer than ten years.
Penny wise, pound foolish.
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March 25th, 2012 at 2:22 pm 108
RE Depreciation reports…. this will become a boomimg business for those who are able to provide them, 1 thing you can count on is that they will be associated with contractors/tradesmen who will benefit from their findings, there are no shortage of older complexes which will require significant work over the next decade on, once these reports are handed back to strata councils throughout 2013-2014, this will only add to the oversupply of units for sale. If i were a condo owner i would get out while the gettings good.
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March 25th, 2012 at 2:56 pm 109
It’s been a while, but here are the monthly MOI calculations for each of BCREA’s sales regions. Feb 2012 MOI is shown, with Feb 2011 shown in brackets for comparison.
BC Northern
Inventory: 2092
Sales: 287
MOI: 7.3 (10)
Chilliwack
Inventory: 1616
Sales: 133
MOI: 12.2 (8.3)
Fraser Valley
Inventory: 7475
Sales: 1195
MOI: 6.3 (6.0)
Greater Vancouver
Inventory: 14753
Sales:2572
MOI: 5.7 (4.1)
Kamloops
Inventory: 1852
Sales: 153
MOI: 12.1 (10.5)
Kootenay
Inventory: 2511
Sales: 97
MOI: 25.9 (20.6)
Okanagan Mainline
Inventory: 5325
Sales: 367
MOI: 14.5 (16.3)
Powell River
Inventory: 239
Sales: 24
MOI: 10.0 (9.5)
South Okanagan
Inventory: 1644
Sales: 98
MOI: 16.8 (19.5)
Northern Lights
Inventory: 221
Sales: 47
MOI: 4.7 (10.3)
Vancouver Island
Inventory: 5285
Sales: 440
MOI: 12.0 (11.4)
Victoria
Inventory: 3108
Sales: 482
MOI: 6.4 (6.4)
Provincial Totals
Inventory: 46121
Sales: 5895
MOI: 7.8 (6.8)
Outside Vancouver
Inventory: 31368
Sales: 3323
MOI: 9.4 (9.4)
Perhaps the most interesting stat is that while MOI is up province-wide (7.8, up from 6.8 last year), this is all due to a surge in MOI in Vancouver. Outside of the big city, the province showed no net change in MOI, at a flat (but high) level of 9.4 in both Feb 2011 and Feb 2012. Vancouver, on the other hand, increased from 4.1 to 5.7, an increase of 39% year-over-year. A sign that our fine city is finally figuring out what the rest of the province has already learned – that eventually you actually have to pay back the money you borrow?
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March 25th, 2012 at 3:29 pm 110
“(My parents) would much rather me stay at home and save than to not have anything to show for the rent I was paying,” said Angela Calla, host of CKNW’s The Mortgage Show.
The 29-year-old started saving aggressively in her mid-teens and by 20, was able to purchase her first piece of property. From then through 26, she bought a new property each year while still living at home.
…
No bubble to see here, move along folks.
http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/News/local/2012/03/22/19538016.html
…
The average age of first-time homebuyers has also dropped since 2007 and now hovers around 30 with some are as young as 21, said Tracie McTavish, Rennie Marketing Systems president.
“These are more the first-time investor,” he said of the many young people who had pre-registered for the Marine Gateway development at the foot of Cambie Street. “Their intent is not necessarily to become a real state magnate.”
I know some people say Rennie is just a good salesman but, come on, this is pure scumbaggery. Taking advantage of buyers barely out of puberty to feed your bloated bank account when you know damn well prices are going to plummet.
For shame, Rennie, you dirty old creep.
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March 25th, 2012 at 3:34 pm 111
@Patiently Waiting:
That’s some leverage she’s using and all of it in real estate. Did she mention to the viewers that she’s totally screwed if the market corrects?
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March 25th, 2012 at 3:39 pm 112
I have a sub-prime story for you:
My in-laws recently bought into a townhouse development that completes in April. Their gross household income is around 100k. I just found out the details of the purchase:
Price of unit: 540,000
Downpayment: 108,000 (20% to avoid having to pay CMHC insurance)
Mortgage amount: $432,000
Now for the sub-prime part:
Downpayment came from 3 sources:
1) 25,000 came from parents’ HELOC.
2) 80,000 came from a line of credit from a major Canadian bank (WHO THE F*** GAVE THEM THIS MONEY AND WHY???)
3) 3,000 came from their own savings.
So, while boasting that their mortgage payments are *only* 1800 a month, they also intend to pay down their line of credit at a rate of $1,000 a month for the next 6.66 years, as well as make interest only payments on their parents’ HELOC. Oh, and they also intend to move out 5 years later in order to buy a house so they can have kids while she goes on maternity leave. So, in order to minimise the interest paid on the purchase, they aim to throw every spare penny into paying off the mortgage sooner.
They are both accountants.
W T F ??
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March 25th, 2012 at 3:48 pm 113
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-23/banks-tighten-condo-lending-amid-bubble-fears-corporate-canada.html
From bloomberg…. the main stream media is turning quickly
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March 25th, 2012 at 3:58 pm 114
@Anonymous: More about Angela Calla from an old Garth Turner blog post.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/06/28/the-expert/
Is it just me or does she look ten years older than her age?
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March 25th, 2012 at 4:40 pm 115
Oh my…
Look at this listing and click on “view additional picture”…
Oh my! Oh my! Oh my! please tell me they got this Realtor for free…
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March 25th, 2012 at 5:25 pm 116
@bubbly: “10 story wooden condo tower”
How much you want to bet that they call it: “The Torch”
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March 25th, 2012 at 6:20 pm 117
Now that Central-Canadian movers and shakers are being hit with an affordability crisis in places like Toronto, presto….policy response!
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March 25th, 2012 at 9:17 pm 118
@Patiently Waiting: well, that how they make it. unlife you chicken sh$t, jealous of your rich sister for life; grow some hair on your balls, will you.
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March 25th, 2012 at 9:43 pm 119
@ Maykaya
Hahahaha. Can’t afford staging? Go take some pictures at Ikea! You think they might try harder to avoid price tags. And two kitchens in an 875 sq ft apartment? How novel.
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March 25th, 2012 at 10:15 pm 120
“they also intend to move out 5 years later in order to buy a house so they can have kids while she goes on maternity leave”
Are they scared someone will hear them making the kids? Is that why they have to wait until they are in a detached house?
People here have been brainwashed with a 50′s style dream of living in a nice house in a spotless suburb and driving to work in that shiny new car. Sorry, but that’s not how real cities look.
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March 25th, 2012 at 11:13 pm 121
This is probably not coming soon to a city near you, because people here, while very nice, don’t have this capacity to laugh at themselves, so we will have much more depressing versions of the same thing.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/26/world/europe/dublin-journal-a-billion-euro-house-built-of-shredded-bills.html?_r=1&hp
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March 25th, 2012 at 11:45 pm 122
@jumpin in:
The real estate price will likely decrease because of the Evergreen line. Many people who live in Poco don’t want a skytrain. Otherwise, they would live in Surrey.
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March 26th, 2012 at 12:05 am 123
@MM: “People here have been brainwashed with a 50′s style dream of living in a nice house in a spotless suburb and driving to work in that shiny new car. Sorry, but that’s not how real cities look.”
Maybe not cities but plenty of towns still look like that. The problem isn’t the dream, the problem is where you try to live it! Big city living is highly over rated. Move to a smaller town, save lots, work less, have a better lifestyle and retire in comfort. What could be better than that? I’ll give you a hint – it doesn’t involve: multi-hour commutes or living in a shoe box, and never seeing the sun.
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March 27th, 2012 at 6:24 am 124
[...] to throw every spare penny into paying off the mortgage sooner. They are both accountants.” – TPFKAA at vancouvercondo.info 25 Mar 2012 3:39pm Share:TwitterFacebookRedditStumbleUponDigg This entry was posted in 05. Where do Buyers get the [...]
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