Friday Free-for-all!
It’s Friday! Take off your pants and do the happy dance!
Agh! No, wait! Metaphorically. Please sir, put your pants back on, this is a family restaurant.
Anyways, it IS the end of the week and do you know what that means? It’s time for another end-of-the-week news round-up and open topic discussion thread. A little thing we like to refer to as the Friday Free-for-all! Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
-Canada prices up, Vancouver falls again
-Inventory graph (March 29th 2012)
-The boomer trigger
-New budget slashes $5.2 billion
-Ottawa to toughen CMHC oversight
-This rant brought to you by Gordholio
-TD: don’t worry about the banks
-Banks tighten condo lending on bubble fears
-The 3-inch condo is here
-Vancouver seeks more market housing
-Storm clouds form over Vancouver market
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So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
March 30th, 2012 at 2:16 am 1
“We are about to find out that economics and finance has a far bigger impact on your life than politics, and if you don’t believe me let me finish with a very clear declaration, and hold me to this, come back at me years in the future.
The sovereign debt problems along with the costs of an aging population are going to revamp society in the most profound way, and the part that worries me, that includes violent social unrest, and those who don’t understand it are just going to be road kill along the way.”
Michael Campbell (the brother of former B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell) made the above statement on his “Money Talks” radio show last Saturday on radio station CKNW in Vancouver, B.C.
If anyone wishes to listen to these words for themselves click on the following link to CKNW’s audio vault enter March 24 in the date drop down box, 8:00 AM in the time drop down box and then click on “listen”. When the audio starts to play, move the slider ahead to 39 minutes and 30 seconds to hear the quote. (Put your mouse on the bar just above the “listen” tab, click the mouse, hold it down and then slide the pointer ahead on the bar. You have to release the mouse to see where you are, and then repeat the process again one or two times to get to the 39 minutes and 30 seconds mark.) You do not have to register on the website to use the audio vault. It is strictly click and play. CKNW’s audio vault stores program audio for a period of 30 days.
http://www.cknw.com/other/audiovault.html
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March 30th, 2012 at 2:41 am 2
@george:
This jackass has just discovered that our debt-based economy is a house of cards after having having pumped the RE bubble for the last decade?
Totally shameless. And still his newfound doomsaying doesn’t include being openly bearish on RE.
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March 30th, 2012 at 2:43 am 3
scary words…….
“engineered soft landing”
…….a lot of people will be reaching
for the Charmin
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March 30th, 2012 at 4:48 am 4
A thought about the dynamics of a growing inventory.
As we go into the end of March with a record seasonal inventory level, I thought it would interesting to share a thought on how the inventory levels will progress over the next 6 months. These periods are significant as it is seasonally when we get some of the higher listing volumes while sales typically are strong then taper into the summer.
The higher inventory levels get, the harder it is to grow them. Inventory seems to have a contant rate of expiration/terminations. This rate is approx 2.5% of the inventory per week. There are also 2-3 major expiration days where listing contracts tend to end. This is September 30 and December 31.
As the 2.5% expiration rate stays constant, we need to have weaker and weaker sale/list rates and higher overall excess listings. As the inventory gets higher, there are more expirations, so it gets more difficult to increase the inventory.
So as we go into Summer, we should see the slope of the inventory graph weaken and possibly even top-out – even if the market stays weak.
Anyhow – Happy Weekend to all.
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March 30th, 2012 at 7:21 am 5
@george:
Stop worrying about what talking heads say. It’s always worth hearing an alternative viewpoint and considering it, but take comments like that for what they are.
Fear mongering has become a cottage industry since 2008.
It the battle between Ratings and Reality, Reality will win out every time.
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March 30th, 2012 at 7:29 am 6
Here’s another Reality… the crash didn’t come. Here we are almost four years after the worst financial crisis in a century and things are ticking along just fine.
Higher inventory numbers are not going to portend a crash. Rather, the higher inventory numbers that we are seeing are just the market looking to find a balance. It suggests that prices are a little rich right now and may adjust downwards.
The only thing that is going to cause a crash at this point are drastically higher interest rates or another financial meltdown. Both are unlikely.
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March 30th, 2012 at 7:31 am 7
@Dave:
Hit those bears right on their balls;Chinese money and National power is invincible.
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March 30th, 2012 at 7:51 am 8
Dave,
what is your take on the current turmoil in secondary home markets like whistler/okanagan? Could we look at them to be as isolated markets that they are not affecting the rest of the market for primary residence?
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March 30th, 2012 at 8:30 am 9
6 Dave Says:“Here’s another Reality… ..things are ticking along just fine.”
Emergency interest rates, unsustainable, anything but ‘fine’.
“Higher inventory numbers are not going to portend a crash….It suggests that prices are a little rich right now and may adjust downwards.”
Trust me?
“The only thing that is going to cause a crash at this point are drastically higher interest rates or another financial meltdown. Both are unlikely.”
Just like the US, where it wasn’t higher rates or a financial meltdown? You do understand it was toxic assets tied to housing that caused the meltdown, right?
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March 30th, 2012 at 8:39 am 10
@Jersey Boys:
I think markets have a level of connectivity between. I don’t think the primary and secondary markets are completely isolated from one another. The secondary market is definitely suffering and it’s pulling the primary market down in areas when it has a larger component (e.g. Okanagan).
People just aren’t buying second homes. There might be lots of reasons for that but I think it’s mostly a market confidence thing. If the economy is doing well and people have increasing wealth, then they start to think about vacation homes. We aren’t back at that point again.
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March 30th, 2012 at 8:47 am 11
@fixie guy:
Low rates aren’t sustainable? This is not unprecedented in economic history. My position isn’t really that contentious. Let’s remember, trillions of dollars agree with me, not you.
Let’s assume my premise of rates remaining low is true and we don’t have another economic meltdown… What could possibly cause the market to crash?
In the US it was rising rates and rising gas prices that eventually exposed the low quality debt. The difference here was that we didn’t have the subprime lending problem.
I would also argue that our housing markets and mixes are quite different. The US housing crash was really a Florida, Nevada, Arizona and California event. The markets that crashed had large inventory levels in areas that are relatively easy to build and expand product. That’s not the case for Canadian where we have a large urban population in cities not designed to be sprawling suburbs. For example, you can’t compare Vancouver and Toronto to Las Vegas and Phoenix. Just drive around those cities and it’s pretty obvious. If you want comparables, you need to look to places like New York and Seattle which had only moderate corrections. If you are going to make a US style argument, you have to start there and then factor in the lack of subprime mortgages.
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March 30th, 2012 at 8:56 am 12
Dave, so you are suggesting Van will have a Seattle style correction.
Fine by me, price have dropped there significantly.
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:08 am 13
@logic:
Not at all. I suggested that one can’t make a comparison between the US housing crash and the Vancouver market. If you wanted to do that you would have to start by using Seattle or New York as a comparative and build a case from there. Such a case would have to include subprime lending, which was still present in Seattle. You would have to consider that Vancouver has one freeway versus the multi-level freeways that run right through Seattle’s downtown.
I’m not making the case because I don’t think it’s really there. I’m just helping Fixie Guy make it.
I content that the Vancouver market is flat and that prices are not going to deviate significantly from where there are at present. Whilst I predicated a flat market recovery in 2008, I did not anticipate prices to sustain the level they are at present. My prediction is for prices to be somewhere between the 2009 low and the 2010 high, for the next number of years. I think the rest of the decade will be mostly flat. Some niche markets will continue to rise to levels some think crazy and some areas will be soft, but overall… flat.
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:16 am 14
Hey Pope, how about that exemption on foreclosing my name?
I am polite and cordial, my posts are interesting, and I have a terrific track record.
As to the rest of you voting down… it’s bad karma. Considering divergent opinions is an important thing. Worst case, you walk away with a more informed opinion.
You might not like me and what I believe, but let’s be honest… I am worth listening to. I have more access to this industry than any of you posting here.
Trust me on this.
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:18 am 15
@Dave:
“Let’s assume my premise of rates remaining low is true and we don’t have another economic meltdown… What could possibly cause the market to crash? ”
Specuvestors selling because price appreciation has ended and they can only cover 1/2 of their expenses from rent, even with historically low interest rates?
Plus exhaustion of the new buyer pool?
Just maybe?
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:27 am 16
@Dave: …People just aren’t buying second homes…..
But I thought that the world was full of rich people that were buying second homes in Vancouver?
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:28 am 17
@Dave: You forgot to add…
I’m sexy and I know it…
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:31 am 18
@Dave: “There might be lots of reasons for that but I think it’s mostly a market confidence thing.”
Confidence
That word
If not for that word
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:38 am 19
@Anonymous:
I never made the case that foreign buyers drove this market.
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:40 am 20
@Dave:
“Considering divergent opinions is an important thing.”
Not for anybody here.
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:46 am 21
Thank you Dave for returning to the site and spouting more useless drivel with the purpose of confusing people.
Let’s stick to what’s important.
The rise in the real estate market in Vancouver and Canada in the last decade is due to loosening lending standards, and lowering of interest rates.
We went from a 25% downpayment system all the way down to 0%, and interest rates have dropped continuously.
We are at a point were the down payments have gone back up to 5%, (though technically with cash back it’s effectively 0%) and interest rates will not drop. There is no more stimulus available. The BC Government is throwing in some tax incentives, quite similar to what Australia did to keep their bubble inflated.
The growth in real estate prices is over. Sales are in the toilet, and total inventory is at record levels for this time of year.
Move up buyers cannot move up because they have not enough equity in their condos and townhomes.
The fat lady finished her song last year, we’re past ‘over’.
Real estate bubbles have popped everywhere else in the world. Dave’s basic point is ‘It’s different here’, which means he’s either brainwashed and a kool-aid drinker, or he preys on those with weak logical minds. The only thing different about Vancouver is the level of delusion that has meant the biggest bubble ever. The end result will not be pretty.
Trust me on this.
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:46 am 22
@Dave: “Trust me on this.”
If I had a penny for every time you said that, I could have bought a West Side SFH long ago. =)
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:47 am 23
@patriotz:
Your definition of ‘specuvestor’ includes everybody that purchased in the prior ten years. Mine is somebody who buys and sells in a short period with the hope of making a profit on the flip. I don’t think there are many such people using my definition. We are seeing a flood of listings coming from landlords trying to cash in. The time to have done that would have been in 2009 or arguably 2010. I think that would have shaken most of those people out. It’s your case to make. If you are going to make it, then back it up with some numbers. Got any?
RE… New buyer pool exhaustion. Absolutely that can cause a market correction. The market needs to have new buyers of course. At present, they keep coming. The numbers of holding up just fine. The numbers dropped in 2008 prior to crash. But they came back strongly in 2009 and 2010. Life happens and people need to buy. Every year, a certain number of people reach the age where they can enter the market. As long as affordable housing options exist in the Lower Mainland, then I am not worried about first time buyers going away. There are a lot of affordable housing projects in the works right now, including Vancouver itself.
When people talk about affordable housing, they always talk about Yaletown, Kerrisdale, Kits and UBC. I never hear complaints about Edmonds, Richmond, Port Moody or Coquitlam.
As before, got any numbers to back up such a case?
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:56 am 24
“Let’s assume my premise of rates remaining low is true and we don’t have another economic meltdown… What could possibly cause the market to crash? ”
Ask an American. USA crash started well before the 2008 crisis and probably caused the crisis.
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:58 am 25
When responding to posts by Dave, please refer to him as “Dumbass Dave”.
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March 30th, 2012 at 10:00 am 26
“It the battle between Ratings and Reality, Reality will win out every time.”
Thank your for that insight, Dumbass Dave! That is, in fact, why the Vancouver market will crash. Reality will win in Vancouver meaning that prices will reflect reality. That means that prices which are out of line with reality will fall.
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March 30th, 2012 at 10:00 am 27
Turns out Dave was right all along. There’s nothing to worry about: http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/29/maybe-we-arent-too-indebted/
;P
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March 30th, 2012 at 10:00 am 28
@curious lurker:
“Real estate bubbles have popped everywhere else in the world.”
Yet others prove just as resilient as Vancouver, e.g. Stockholm.
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March 30th, 2012 at 10:08 am 29
“Considering divergent opinions is an important thing.”
Our opinion diverges from 99% of the general population. We know what the divergent opinion is and its us.
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March 30th, 2012 at 10:15 am 30
Some updates from West Vancouver, courtesy of Larry Yatkowsky
Average price down 7.9% and median price down 13.6% in one month in another HAM territory. Yikes!
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March 30th, 2012 at 10:19 am 31
I know this has been discussed before but I would like to bring it up again.
I believe that Dave’s comments create a good background we can bounce arguments against. I know some of you heard his ideas before numerous times and you might have gotten tired of them – but please consider that a lot of insight can be gleaned from differences in opinions. I think understanding how bulls think and argument is informative.
I come to this site to hear both bulls and bears arguments … and the strength of the bear argument is magnified by having the weak bull argument available for comparison.
Please consider that before voting Dave’s comments down into the “Foreclosure” and “invisible” state.
Thanks.
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March 30th, 2012 at 10:21 am 32
A praise for reverse mortgage from Vancouver Sun – http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Reverse+mortgages+offer+house+rich+option+avoid+cash+poverty/6381374/story.html
Interesting that the guy promoting it says that LOC aren’t good for seniors because many can’t afford the $300/month interest charge on a $100K loan. But a reverse mortgage with variable interest rate starting at 4.9% and fixed starting at over 5% is perfectly fine because you don’t have to interest upfront.
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March 30th, 2012 at 10:41 am 33
@Anonymouse:
Two years ago you could have included any number of places in Australia and UK in that statement as well. Heck, even throw in Seattle the immune, due to its proximity to BPOE no doubt. I don’t know what’s going on in Stockholm (my bet is on HAM, Hot Arab Money?), but pointing out there are still a handful of places where the real estate bubble is alive and well is hardly illuminating; that pool is shrinking quickly.
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March 30th, 2012 at 10:42 am 34
@VanDweller: And the arguments have now devolved into “Vancouver is different” without properly dealing with how “Vancouver is the same”. We’ve had enough critical analysis from outside of Vancouver’s fishbowl telling the city it’s drunk to take a look in the mirror and hand in the car keys.
But hey continue to argue if you think it will make a difference. I doubt it will.
I don’t agree with the hiding/filtering of on-topic comments.
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March 30th, 2012 at 10:45 am 35
I bet all the people who have pulled their listings recently because they couldn’t find a buyer at the price they want will try again later in the spring. I’m sure a number of them are at least confused if not in a complete state of disbelief that they couldn’t sell. It must have been all the rain and cold weather. Vancouver RE NEVER goes down in value.
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March 30th, 2012 at 10:55 am 36
@jesse:
Please pass your sentiments to the Pope.
I am not going to waste my time posting into thin air.
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March 30th, 2012 at 11:03 am 37
Vancouver’s Aspac Developments
http://www.theprovince.com/entertainment/Billionaire+brothers+changed+Vancouver+skyline+with+luxury+towers/6385117/story.html
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March 30th, 2012 at 11:04 am 38
@Dave: The Pope reads these comments and my view is but a single datum. My comments are usually not modded up to the moon so what do I know.
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March 30th, 2012 at 11:07 am 39
@Supersogs:
As Chabar pointed out yesterday…
Lowlifes and their fucked business style and culture. Just look their faces, I wouldn’t trust them anything but somehow Vancouver and BC likes that garbage more than anything.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-29/sun-hung-kai-says-co-chairmen-arrested-for-corruption-probe.html
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March 30th, 2012 at 11:43 am 40
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Billionaire+Kwok+brothers+arrested+Hong+Kong+Hung+Properties+value/6385750/story.html
“The Kwoks have been involved in a number of Metro Vancouver projects including ones in Coal Harbour, at UBC and in Richmond.”
nice…
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March 30th, 2012 at 11:51 am 41
[B.C. civil servants' union to seek strike mandate after talks collapse ] Mar 30, 2012
- The teachers were just the beginning. Now it’s civil servants’ turn. On deck is nurses union, hospital workes, doctors, etc.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-politics/bc-civil-servants-union-to-seek-strike-mandate-after-talks-collapse/article2387263/
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March 30th, 2012 at 11:54 am 42
@UnagiDon: If I had a penny for every time you said that
What’s a penny?
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March 30th, 2012 at 12:21 pm 43
@vangrl:
UBC building could be the “Hospice case”? So Chinese build for Chinese, money is churning within their circles and Canada is just providing space and facilities for their games and nonsenses. Lovely!
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March 30th, 2012 at 12:47 pm 44
oh well I apologize upfront…
I read through the stories.. .all real estate.. then I see:
“The 3-inch condoM is here”
WTF ?!!??
Then I realized my mistake and laughed really hard..
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March 30th, 2012 at 1:01 pm 45
36 Dave Says: “I am not going to waste my time posting into thin air.”
As ….. novel as many of your theories are – like stock markets taken down by high energy prices – they weren’t the reason for implementing moderation. Thank your cohorts. Their infantile targeted spamming made VCI unreadable and you collateral damage.
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March 30th, 2012 at 1:50 pm 46
Well, they aren’t making any more land in Vancouver, and guess what else they won’t be making any more of soon? PENNIES!! I’m calling a huge penny bubble. Sell your condo now, convert the money into pennies and watch the value climb and climb! No property tax, no strata fees, no brainer!
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March 30th, 2012 at 1:58 pm 47
@Dave:
Seattle is a great example for us to follow, because Seattle’s home prices are now in line with rents and incomes … ie, the fundamentals make sense for that market. There may or may not be more downside to prices in Seattle – having been in a bubble – but the day our RE prices return to such strong correlation to fundamental value, I’ll buy you a beer!
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March 30th, 2012 at 2:36 pm 48
Recently we hosted a meal at our home with 3 young couples present. The topic of real estate came up. One couple recently spent $900,000 on an East Van house. When someone referred to my bearish outlook the male owner of that home, who also owns a downtown condo, brought up a couple of classic arguments:
• even if this is a peak, real estate is still a good investment in the long term, just like the stock market.
• Vancouver is different
So, what about the argument that as long as you hold real estate for the long term it is good investment – even if you have bad timing and buy at the peak.
I decided to do a little thought experiment. And use real historic Vancouver numbers (since Vancouver is different).
Let’s take 3 people who have $240,000 to invest in 1981. By coincidence $240,000 is the average house price in 1981.
Person 1 buys a house as investment in 1982. House prices have been going up dramatically lately so it must be a good investment. He holds on to it for 19 years. In 2000 it is worth $370,000 in nominal value (in real, inflation adjusted, terms he has lost money).
19 years seems a long time to be holding an investment and real estate values have gone down during the mid-nineties so Person 1 decides to sell. Instead he puts his money in the stock market (S&P 500). It has been going up, up, for many years so it must be a good investment.
Twelve years later (in 2012) the S&P 500 has declined from its 2000 levels and his original $240,000 is now worth $341,000.
Person 2 decides to be conservative with her $240,000. She invests in 5 year government bonds. Thanks to high interest rates in the 80s and 90s she averages a 9% return on those bonds and ends up with $1,234,000 by 2000. Over the next 10 years the rates average more like 2.8%.
By 2012 the $240,000 that Person 2 started with is now worth $1,700,000.
Person 3 looks at the fundamentals in 1981 and decides that housing is overpriced. She waits two years during which time housing declines by about 30% and she buys a house for $170,000. She invests the rest in 5 year government bonds.
In 2005 she happens to notice the cover of the Economist magazine at her local grocery store. She decides to sell her house the next year and gets $600,000 for it. She decides the stock market is also overpriced at the moment and waits until to 2009 to invest in the S&P.
By 2012 the $240,000 that Person 3 started with is now worth $1,500,000.
I think this clearly illustrates the point that if you invest in housing or the stock market at the wrong time it can be a loosing proposition. Even if you hold it the long term (10-20 years).
In fact it could cost you over a million dollars.
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March 30th, 2012 at 2:39 pm 49
@Dave: Also, here’s me complaining about Port Moody for you: “It’s too damn expensive to buy in Port Moody. I have a family of four to house, and can’t afford to buy anything even slightly comparable to where I rent in Vancouver. If I add in commuting costs, we’re just as unable to buy in Port Moody as we are in the neighbourhood in which we live.”
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March 30th, 2012 at 2:50 pm 50
@b5baxter: Wouldn’t it be great if hindsight was forward looking…too bad that it is not. Good example, but it is of little relevance. If I only foresaw Apple shares being $600 and bought $240,000 worth of it in 1989 I would now have 14.4 million. WOW!!! Crazy how that works
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March 30th, 2012 at 2:52 pm 51
@b5baxter: Sorry got the date wrong. Go back to 1981, that makes it 64 million
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March 30th, 2012 at 2:57 pm 52
@Anonymous:
I agree it is not very relevant for making decisions based on the current situation. Interest rates are quite different for example.
It is relevant for countering the argument that “…in Vancouver Real Estate has always been a good investment no mater when you buy as long as you hold it for more than 10 years….”
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March 30th, 2012 at 3:08 pm 53
@b5baxter:
“…in Vancouver Real Estate has always been a good investment no mater when you buy as long as you hold it for more than 10 years….”
This is the idiot “logic” that assumes that there is some natural law that requires that RE has to sell for more in 10 years than it does today.
It feeds the “can’t lose” mentality which gets people to buy at any price. Until there isn’t anyone left to buy.
It’s exactly the same thinking that led people (and the financial system) in the US to assume that a national bust couldn’t happen because it hadn’t happened before.
How things change. We are now 6 years past the market top in the US and anyone today claiming that in 4 years prices will be back to the previous top would be laughed at.
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March 30th, 2012 at 3:09 pm 54
@b5baxter:
Your post is a silly one because you deliberately chose the data points. Somebody could just as easily prove the reverse by picking different times. To disprove that real estate is always a good investment in the long term you’d have to do something like aggregate the profit/loss across a sufficiently large number of “long term” transactions.
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March 30th, 2012 at 3:12 pm 55
Re: the Kwok story
Interesting to know if any justice insiders
shorted the stock knowing the charges were pending
Interesting times
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March 30th, 2012 at 3:28 pm 56
@Anonymouse:
“To disprove that real estate is always a good investment in the long term you’d have to do something like aggregate the profit/loss across a sufficiently large number of “long term” transactions.”
You’re not proving “is” by any examination of past market prices. You’re proving “was”.
So how do you know whether it “is”? What is the value that a given property returns to its owner – as opposed to the value that the next owner returns (or doesn’t return). It’s the rental value. The property can only add to the wealth of its owners in sequence and in total an amount equal to its rental value. If one owner gets more than this, it’s at the expense of a previous owner (who sold too low) or subsequent owner (who bought too high).
That means that if you pay more than rental value for a property – like right now – either you or a subsequent owner must lose money on it.
Feeling lucky, punk?
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March 30th, 2012 at 3:37 pm 57
@patriotz: “This is the idiot “logic” that assumes that there is some natural law that requires that RE has to sell for more in 10 years than it does today.”
No, they’re just claiming that historically such a statement has been true, on average. I’ve no idea if that’s correct or not, but of course it would be a fallacy to assume that any such patterns hold true for the future.
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March 30th, 2012 at 3:41 pm 58
@March 29:
If you check out any numismatics forum you’ll find numerous tales of roll hunting, people go through boxes of pennies and pick out all the old ones. Any penny minted before 1997 is almost pure copper and contains over 2 cents worth of the metal. Double your money instantly! Starting in 1997 they changed to zinc before moving to plated steel.
People do the same thing with nickels, any minted before 1982 are made of pure nickel and at one time were worth around 30 cents each although nickel prices have come way down since then.
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March 30th, 2012 at 3:48 pm 59
@Anonymouse:
“No, they’re just claiming that historically such a statement has been true, on average. I’ve no idea if that’s correct or not, but of course it would be a fallacy to assume that any such patterns hold true for the future.”
It’s not true. It’s just that accurate data for Vancouver have only been kept since the ’80s and Real-Estate here has been on an upwards trend since the early ’90s. Prior to that it had ups and downs, just like everywhere else.
Of course, as you say, you can’t simply look at the pattern and presume it will continue. One has to look at external comparisons, growth factors, fundamentals, and so many other things. But figuring all that out is HARD, it takes mathematics and intelligence. Believing in magical property fairies is EASY. So, we have a bubble.
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March 30th, 2012 at 4:11 pm 60
@patriotz: ‘You’re proving “was”.’
Yes, I *know* that. I’m not claiming to know the future. Good grief. And they call me a nit-picker.
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March 30th, 2012 at 4:12 pm 61
It’s true that opposing opinions make for interesting conversation. I think we just have to vote Dave’s post up when they go below zero.
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March 30th, 2012 at 4:16 pm 62
@CanuckDownUnder: Roll hunting LOL. times must be tough they should have bought real estate
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March 30th, 2012 at 4:18 pm 63
Regarding “Real Estate has always been a good investment no mater when you buy as long as you hold it for more than 10 year”
Let’s look at Shiller’s 120 year data of Real US housing prices and Real S&P index (excluding dividends, Real = inflation adjusted):
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
1894 house index = 124, S&P500 = 4.32
2011 (Q4) house index = 115.5, S&P500 = 1243
So after 117 years: house -7%, stock market +28680% (both in Real terms).
Yep, real estate is a good investment.
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March 30th, 2012 at 4:23 pm 64
oops, sorry grabbed the wrong column
1894 house index = 124, S&P500 = 144
2011 (Q4) house index = 115.5, S&P500 = 1239
So after 117 years: house -7%, stock market +773% (both in Real terms).
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March 30th, 2012 at 4:33 pm 65
@Makaya: ….Average price down 7.9% and median price down 13.6% in one month in another HAM territory. Yikes!….
Damn it, get it right! THE PRICES ARE NOT DOWN, people are just willing to pay less.
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March 30th, 2012 at 4:39 pm 66
@Anonymouse:
Yes of course I did.
This was a counter-argument to someone who is claiming that even if we are at the peak of the market RE can still be a good investment.
RE is often a good investment. My point is if you choose the wrong time it can be a bad investment. This is counter-argument to those who claim there is NEVER a bad time.
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March 30th, 2012 at 4:58 pm 67
Any guesses what the average price of an SFH will be this month?
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March 30th, 2012 at 5:24 pm 68
New Listings 255
Price Changes 113
Sold Listings 92
TI:16298
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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March 30th, 2012 at 5:26 pm 69
Lot of Foreclosures…
Is it Happy Hour at the RE asylum ?
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March 30th, 2012 at 5:42 pm 70
March 2012 Sales 2,934 Listing 5,763 Inventory 16,298 Inv Change 1,386 Sales are 28% below Mar 2011. Second lowest in 10 years (2,265 in 2009)Like or Dislike:
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March 30th, 2012 at 5:42 pm 71
Thanks again Paul B! Your numbers are always appreciated.
Those numbers are nicely bearish + 155 and a nice kick off to the weekend!
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March 30th, 2012 at 5:44 pm 72
So, March finishes with a whimper and becomes the 2nd worst for sales in a decade.
Just like January and February.
Stay tuned, more of the same weak sales coming up as this bubble unwinds.
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March 30th, 2012 at 6:13 pm 73
@Devore:
Sweden, I heard, is in a similar situation as we are. They can’t adjust interest rates because their gov’t keeps them tied to European rates which are low and have been low and will be low and their house prices have climbed and climbed and climbed. V. similar to Carney/Bernake.
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March 30th, 2012 at 6:15 pm 74
In terms of MOI:
Mar 1-31 Inventory (paulB’s stats) increased by 1386 (16298-14912)
REBGV official Feb-end Inventory = 14055
Estimated REBGV March Inventory = 14055+1300 = 15355
Estimated March 2012 MOI = 15355/2934 = 5.2 months
That’s the 2nd highest March MOI in at least 8 years
March MOI History
* approximate value
- no inventory record prior to 2005
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March 30th, 2012 at 6:46 pm 75
@b5baxter:
“RE is often a good investment. My point is if you choose the wrong time it can be a bad investment. This is counter-argument to those who claim there is NEVER a bad time.”
Of course there have been bad times. There have also been good. My point was that we don’t know if there have been more good times than bad, on average. Intuition would say it’s probably the same, but without any data or even a definition of what “long term” is it’s futile to discuss it any further.
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March 30th, 2012 at 6:49 pm 76
@VMD:
“That’s the 2nd highest March MOI in at least 8 years”
Yet still not in “buyers market” territory.
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March 30th, 2012 at 7:02 pm 77
@ewman:
“So after 117 years: house -7%, stock market +28680% (both in Real terms).”
Again, insufficient data points and invalid interpretation of the data. Whilst I would agree that “117 years” is most certainly long term, I can’t see many people holding property for that long as an investment.
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March 30th, 2012 at 7:25 pm 78
@Anonymouse:
” My point was that we don’t know if there have been more good times than bad, on average. ”
Sure we do. A good time to buy is when buying is cheaper than renting (over the whole mortgage, not necessarily at purchase time). That is the historical norm. RE busts happen because buying cannot stay more expensive than renting long term.
Your argument basically assumes that there is no way to determine at what price a house is a good investment, which is complete BS.
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March 30th, 2012 at 7:56 pm 79
75 Anonymouse Says: “…we don’t know if there have been more good times than bad, on average. Intuition would say it’s probably the same, but without any data or even a definition of what “long term” is it’s futile to discuss it any further.”
Shiller showed using the American market that on average good and bad cancelled into a remarkably static long term mean home value, 100+ years with little inflation adjusted change. Others have done the same for Europe over a period of 500 years. Seeing as Canada is currently in an extraordinary run of good times, an equal run of bad is history’s suggestion.
Far from futile, the lessons of other countries provide ample evidence of our likely future. Unless you’re one to believe economic principles change at Canada’s borders and apples fall up.
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March 30th, 2012 at 8:17 pm 80
Take a look at this chart…
http://www.economist.com/node/21551486
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March 30th, 2012 at 9:33 pm 81
@girlbear:
Nice find. I always remind myself that if Canada looks that bad compared to the rest of the world, then Vancouver is really in for it.
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March 30th, 2012 at 10:26 pm 82
@patriotz:
You’re arguing against a point I didn’t make. As usual.
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March 30th, 2012 at 11:42 pm 83
@Anonymous: Your point seems to be, as usual, that we can’t predict the future, so we shouldn’t bother. I recall you making this very same point some months ago. Millions of investors manage to do this every day, with instruments far more complicated than real estate.
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March 31st, 2012 at 2:50 am 84
@ewman:
“Let’s look at Shiller’s 120 year data of Real US housing prices and Real S&P index (excluding dividends, Real = inflation adjusted):”
You are ignoring both rental yield for houses and dividend yield for stocks. Since the rental yield is higher than the dividend yield, this biases the comparison hugely in favour of stocks in the long run. You need to compare the total return for both.
That said, it’s still true that stocks have been a better investment than RE. However, RE is much lower risk. By that I don’t mean than you can buy RE at any price and be sure to make money. What I mean is that it’s easy to know what price to pay for RE to be sure that you’ll make money on it.
If you buy a house when it’s cheaper than renting, you are making money right from the first month, and eventually this surplus will pay for the house. Which means you will make money in the long run even if house prices go down.
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March 31st, 2012 at 10:08 am 85
From Yatter: Vancouver East prices up slightly:
Jan/Feb’s Average Ask price was $924,022. The first stroke of the pump handle in Feb/Mar seemed to prime the market with a small drop to an Average Ask price $919,367.
The Median Ask price in Jan/Feb recorded $895,000. The second swing of the pump handle saw the Median Ask price flow a little more with an increase to $897,000 in Feb/Mar.
The Average Sold price in the Jan/Feb was $919,375. With a another lifting of the pump handle in Feb/Mar the Average Sold Price began to see an increased price trickle to $928,355.
The Median Sold price in Jan/Feb was $873,000. In Feb/Mar another increase in flow was evidenced from the old pump as the Median Sold price rose to $899,000.
Thoughts
Numbers appear to confirm that Vancouver’s east side home buyers and sellers have not suffered from market thirst. But, what or who is pushing and pulling the handle on the east side real estate pump?
This Vancouver Realtor® suggests that if the sun is setting in the west, it may be the price of west side homes that have inadvertently primed the east side’s market pump with a flow of home buyers wishing to satisfy their home ownership thirst in seeking homes more in line with their budgets.
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March 31st, 2012 at 10:22 am 86
@Devore:
That wasn’t my point either.
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March 31st, 2012 at 10:29 am 87
@Anonymous:
Well why don’t you clear up what your point is then.
Or maybe you just don’t have one?
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March 31st, 2012 at 10:51 am 88
@McLovin #85
I think people in East Vancouver are blinded by the news that real estate is going up forever and afraid of missing their chance to buy. Most on the east side are asian’s and I think they just believe what the see on the news and hear from the realtors.
Buy now or be priced out forever.
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March 31st, 2012 at 11:19 am 89
@McLovin #67
Avg SFH should be off about 6-8% this month.
For Attached/Apartment – the average may go up a bit. There’s been a noticable up-tick in the Avg and Median in that scene. Tough to tell if it is mix or real price movements. I think when people can borrow more money because of lower rates, we first see them getting more for their money. Prices only tend to move up when the inventory gets tight (which it is not right now).
The SFH market is really really weak now and is led by Van-West / Richmond / Burnaby and West-Van. Van-East does not have the high inventory because it did not have such a spec-build mania.
Would be great for Larry to get the stats out soon as he has the best / timely info on the monthly data.
Also would be interesting to see if we get the “alternative” press-release come out again from GVREB.
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March 31st, 2012 at 11:58 am 90
Larry now has Van West numbers from his Community Snapshots.
Median from 2316 last month down to 1998 this month. If my math is right that’s a 13.7% haircut.
Slow sales with constant inventory to boot.
Now if only this continues for months to come. That would be so sweet.
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March 31st, 2012 at 12:30 pm 91
@patriotz:
Can’t you read? My point is that you can’t select two data points then claim that they’re representative of the whole.
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March 31st, 2012 at 12:36 pm 92
@ZRH2YVR: Uptick in condo prices is likely due to those being priced out of the SFH market purchasing large higher end condos…just a thought…
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March 31st, 2012 at 12:56 pm 93
West Van:
listings = 1007
sales = 113 (down from 180)
Median prices – $300,000 in one month
Richmond:
listings = 1081
sales = 63 (down from 141)
Median prices – $100,000 in one month
Vancouver West:
listings = 476
sales = 57
Median prices: – $300,000 in one month
Enough said. HAM looks more and more like of one these rumours typical of speculation bubbles: local middle class Asians prepared for it, built McMansions in the 2-3 million range for rich main landers that do not materialize. Now, whole Asian families are maxed out. Thanks for the mess, Cam Good and you other realtor friends!
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March 31st, 2012 at 12:58 pm 94
Specialfx3000 #90
Further:
The Average Sold price recorded in the Jan/Feb was $2,814,854. Feb/Mar witnessed a 17% stabbing dropping the Average Sold price to $2,326,174.
The Median Sold price in Jan/Feb was $2,316,832. The Median Sold ‘took one on the chin’ as it dropped to $1,998,000.
That is stunning in one month! Forget the average as that can be spun by the Realtards but the median dropping 13% in one month is NUTS!
I wonder how many Vancouverites know that Westside houses just dropped twice what the average down payment is in Canada in ONE MONTH?
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March 31st, 2012 at 1:05 pm 95
We should do a Realtard Games!
One Realtor from each region of the lower mainland is picked PER DAY to fight to the death.
They may choose one of three weapons:
1. A 2007 Blackberry
2. A 3 lb bundle of buyer representation contracts
3. A “super gold diamond medallion winner” statute given to the top 1% of all Realtors in their firm who sold a house in the previous 12 months and did not have a formal compliant against them. (A very rare and valuable award)
Let the games begin!
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March 31st, 2012 at 1:26 pm 96
I am off to a few open houses. I will spread the good word about the fall in median prices
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March 31st, 2012 at 1:45 pm 97
Sign of the times..
Does anybody here have a suggestion for a housing blog(s) for Manitoba and/or Alberta? May even consider the maritimes. Since the new(s)papers have become Loo papers..
Thank you kindly..
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March 31st, 2012 at 1:58 pm 98
If Minimum wage goes up to $50/hour…..the problem is solved.
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March 31st, 2012 at 2:48 pm 99
@Anonymous:
“My point is that you can’t select two data points then claim that they’re representative of the whole.”
Your point is besides the point, because whether a house is a good investment at time of purchase is not dependent on selling at any future market price, as I’ve pointed out.
Your fallacy is focusing on capital gains (or losses), rather than the value of the property at purchase time (price vs rent). In other words, your focus is only on speculation, not investment.
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March 31st, 2012 at 3:07 pm 100
@squeako:
There’s an Alberta Bubble Blog, although the content is pretty much the same as you see here.
http://albertabubbleblog.blogspot.ca/
Things got exciting in Alberta when prices tanked 20% from the peak in mid-2007. After a rally in 2009 they started a slow decline and are now down around 12% off peak. My feeling is that this slow decline will continue and you’re not likely to see a repeat of 2007.
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March 31st, 2012 at 3:09 pm 101
@s:
I think people in East Vancouver are blinded by the news that real estate is going up forever and afraid of missing their chance to buy. Most on the east side are asian’s and I think they just believe what the see on the news and hear from the realtors.
So true, it is tradition and legacy combined with greed that always comes with the big price. Unfortunately this time lots of collateral damage has been made along the mission.
“Aspects of propaganda can be traced back to the earliest periods of Chinese history, but propaganda has been most effective in the twentieth century owing to mass media and an authoritarian government. Mao-era China is known for its constant use of mass campaigns to legitimize the state and the policies of leaders. It was the first Chinese government to successfully make use of modern mass propaganda techniques, adapting them to the needs of a country which had a largely rural and illiterate population.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_in_the_People's_Republic_of_China
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March 31st, 2012 at 3:50 pm 102
Friday Free-for-all!
It’s Friday! Take off your pants and do the happy dance!
===================================================================
Thanks for the advice.
Since yesterday, I got dates till Armageddon or Vancouver RE bubble bursts..whichever comes first.
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March 31st, 2012 at 4:13 pm 103
http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.ca/2011/07/housing-prices-inflation-since-1900.html
Over time re closely follows inflation and wages. Once the Ponzi scheme is exposed and investment money moves south for a better chance of a return it will become a bloodbath.
Get out while you can . BC is not going to attract world class companies or talent with high taxes and high wages.
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March 31st, 2012 at 5:17 pm 104
March Sales Stats.
#93 – Jumpin In – West Van and Van West were flipped.
The following are approximate sales statistics for various areas that I track for 2012, 2011, 2010l 2009 and 2008. Good Format should give me a lesson on how to post this
Van West Detached- 142 279 208 144 136
Richmond Detached – 101 262 222 118 161
Van West Attached – 459 671 451 395 459
Van East Detached – 142 227 174 119 140
Van East Attached – 177 220 174 101 140
Richmond Attached – 200 372 349 219 266
West Van Detached – 75 152 72 35 62
Burnaby Detached – 88 160 126 70 97
We can see that several markets are already at historic low volume for the season. Only certain attached markets are really causing any increase in volume over 2009, the tail-end of the GFC period.
As we go into April, we should see weaker sales than March. The end of March was slower.
I will post some MOI stats shortly.
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March 31st, 2012 at 6:15 pm 105
MOI Stats
Total Detached Listings and MOI (Sorted from lowest to highest)
Area
Coquitlam 409 2.5
North Van 288 2.7
Van East 503 3.6
DELTA 168 4.0
Burnaby 412 4.7
CLOVERDALE 294 4.9
LANGLEY 799 5.0
Van west 854 5.5
SURREY 927 5.9
WHITE ROCK 770 5.9
N SURREY 382 6.2
West Van 426 6.7
ABBOTSFORD 735 6.8
Maple Ridge 644 7.9
Richmond 982 10.6
MISSION 514 13.0
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March 31st, 2012 at 6:29 pm 106
@ZRH2YVR:
What does MOI stand for?
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March 31st, 2012 at 6:37 pm 107
@ZRH2YVR: Yeah, the Coquitlam SFH market is one of the last hold-outs. My impression is a lot of the buyers are South Asian spec builders, but I can’t say for sure. Evergreen Line may also be a source of speculation.
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March 31st, 2012 at 6:43 pm 108
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Van West Detached 142 279 208 144 136 Richmond Detached 101 262 222 118 161 Van East Detached 142 227 174 119 140 West Van Detached 75 152 72 35 62 Burnaby Detached 88 160 126 70 97 Van West Attached 459 671 451 395 459 Richmond Attached 200 372 349 219 266 Van East Attached 177 220 174 101 140Like or Dislike:
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March 31st, 2012 at 6:45 pm 109
You can enclose your formated text using
at the end of the block to preserve your format
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March 31st, 2012 at 7:19 pm 110
Condo development on publicly owned land is increasingly being seen as a way to generate revenue for government agencies.
SFU is doing it, with the development of the UniverCity condos.
UBC is doing it with condo developments on university land.
BC Housing is doing it with the Little Mountain redevelopment.
There was talk a few years ago of Translink doing it — building condos adjacent to skytrain stations to raise money for the transit system.
Now, it may be starting with the Vancouver School Board. Unaffordable housing in Vancouver is forcing many families with kids out of the city. That means declining school enrolment. But the school board remains desperately underfunded. Vancouver schools occupy large tracts of real estate in highly desirable locations for real estate. So you have empty schools, stressed budgets, and real estate holdings worth big bucks if converted to residential condos–Vancouver’s schools are ripe for redevelopment into condos. But it creates a positive feedback loop. The condos built on school lands will be unaffordable to Vancouver families. All the development will drive housing prices up even further. More families are forced to leave Vancouver. School enrollment continues to go down and building operations efficiencies continue to deteriorate. Pretty soon virtually all the schools are turned into condos that sit empty, owned by speckers.
Schools are the hearts of our communities. If anything good comes from the impending RE crash so many on this blog are anticipating, one of the best outcomes will be government agencies will no longer see condo developments on their real estate holdings as a way to print money.
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Cash+strapped+Vancouver+school+board+eyes+property+development/6388994/story.html
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March 31st, 2012 at 7:40 pm 111
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs: If they develop land, school boards should be required to make it rental family housing, as in living units 1000-2000 sq ft. There’s a market for it, at the right price, and it shouldn’t be subdivided into smaller units.
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March 31st, 2012 at 8:02 pm 112
@Meh:
I wouldn’t count on any residential development on school lands coming in the form of affordable rental housing for families. The developers wouldn’t make much profit, which would mean the school board wouldn’t get as much money for the land.
Also, new supplies affordable rental housing for families in Vancouver would reverse the trend of declining school enrollment (at least at the neighbourhood scale). This would create the need for new school capacity. If a school board would have to build a new school to meet the new demand. Building a new school would cancel out any public purse profits from redevelopment (which would already reduced because its not speculative condos but affordable rental).
I can imagine some crazy scenario where a developer would have to replace the school with a smaller school to meet the needs of the households living in the new residential units. The new school would be treated as an amenity the developer would have to pay for.
I doubt any of this would work. The only way to get developers to take the bait and purchase schools lands and the only way to justify it financially for the education system would be the development of strata ownership condos for the speculator market.
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March 31st, 2012 at 8:48 pm 113
@pipewrench:
“BC is not going to attract world class companies or talent with high taxes and high wages.”
BC in fact has the second lowest taxes overall of any Canadian province. Income tax for middle income earners is even lower than in Alberta.
As for supposed high wages, I guess you haven’t been following all the posts on this forum complaining about how crappy professional salaries are compared to elsewhere.
The real problem is the high cost of living relative to salaries and of doing business which is a direct outcome of BC’s bubble economy.
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March 31st, 2012 at 10:59 pm 114
Reformat ZRH2YVR’ reply enclose with
your formatted text
(please remove the space between the inside “” when use. If I use exact syntax, you will not be able to see it.
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March 31st, 2012 at 11:11 pm 115
For those who believe we are running out of land here in Vancouver… the old RCMP land between Cambie and Oak will soon be redeveloped as the the new RCMP complex is being built in Surrey. This land is currently owned by the Feds, but rumour has it the COV wants it, not to mention several big developers. The land mass is huge, way bigger than Little Mountain. No shortage of land here!
On another note we went to a few opens today… crickets
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March 31st, 2012 at 11:36 pm 116
This one was very busy, no HAM:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11730239&PidKey=227743675
but the house is built in a bog, and the lot is tilted several degrees. The house too
Completely renovated – Old wooden stairs painted in glossy black paint – uugghh!!!
Others open houses were VERY quiet.
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April 1st, 2012 at 1:15 am 117
I told you dunces that the shit was about to hit the fan.
Thanks for the updated MOI stats. The strongest markets are leading the way down.
To the epic implosion.
This is getting interesting.
Bear Season begins.
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April 1st, 2012 at 4:22 am 118
@squeako:
If you want good Calgary RE information check out Mike Fotiou’s blog, he’s one of the few decent realtors out there:
http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/
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April 1st, 2012 at 5:53 am 119
@Laibach:
Propaganda serves well to our government. Even realtors blogs are no longer in favor of the current strategy. You will find many posts that talk honestly about the current situation.
In the case of home debt and debt to income ratio, many Canadians are balancing on the edge of the abyss and their ability to survive will directly affect housing sector as well as services etc.(More Regulation in the Mortgage Market).
So the propaganda used by government is more connected to the banking sector and not to the real estate market, which itself will fall victim to the short-term policies of the state governments.
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April 1st, 2012 at 6:01 am 120
[...] in the long term, just like the stock market. • Vancouver is different.” – b5baxter at vancouvercondo.info 30 Mar 2012 2:36pm, who also adds analysis. [...]
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April 1st, 2012 at 8:29 am 121
@LauLau:
As a taxpayer, my problem is still that the CMHC exists in the first place. Talk about moral hazard, if you looked it up in the dictionary is should say “see Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation”. The only regulation we need is the people making the profits should also be shouldering the risk. I mean that if I take out a mortgage with RBC, then RBC assumes ALL of the risk associated with that mortgage and can’t offload it as a MBS or onto some shell corporation they own. If you want the profit, you’d better be prepared to shoulder the risk too!
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April 1st, 2012 at 8:38 am 122
Jumping In #116 – It looks like they actually did a good job on the reno. It would make a nice home for someone for $350K.
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April 1st, 2012 at 9:05 am 123
Tick Tock: “the old RCMP land between Cambie and Oak will soon be redeveloped as the the new RCMP complex is being built in Surrey.”
I was in that area the other day, and was wondering what was going to happen to that land. That is a huge parcel of land!
Can you believe all the condos that are being built in that area right now? there has to be thousands of units that are coming on the market soon
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April 1st, 2012 at 10:49 am 124
Gotta love this market.
This gem, at 1130 E. Pender, is yours for only $1.2e6. The picture that leads the listing is dismal, dismal, dismal. But, fear not, they give you a taste of what you could have, if you razed it to the ground and threw another, large six-digit figure (and how many years’ construction?) into the site.
So, to live on East Pender, a stone’s throw from Ray-Cam (the street art’s free, but you better chain up those hipster bikes), you need well over a million to get in the door. Then, take your SFH-owning lifestyle ambitions and drown them in the sink, because you’ll need to share that yard you wanted so badly with a half-dozen weirdos, just so you can choke on debt at a more comfortable pace.
…shouldn’t it seem weird, a-priori, that this gem of a high-density development plan is listed on mls.ca and not icx.ca? Of course not, no sane developer would consider it. Luckily, this is Vancouver, and we have loads of starry-eyed amateurs for the pyre.
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April 1st, 2012 at 12:09 pm 125
More units coming on market? No problem, West Van is removing units!
“West Vancouver considers ‘housing reduction’ strategy” North Shore News, Apr 1/12
http://www.nsnews.com/news/West+Vancouver+considers+housing+reduction+strategy/6393614/story.html
Of course, it is April 1.
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April 1st, 2012 at 12:26 pm 126
@patriotz:
http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/21/news/economy/middle_class_income/index.htm
I digress. Should of stated that property taxes are going to prohibit growth and high cost of living will force investment to seek a better rate of return. Unless of course property taxes are going to go down?
Wages are dropping around the world. The best of luck keeping a bubble inflated with lower wages in competition.
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April 1st, 2012 at 12:35 pm 127
@pipewrench:
“Should of stated that property taxes are going to prohibit growth”
What gives you that idea? In fact property taxes produce the least drag on growth compared to other taxes because they are not a tax on production and cannot be avoided.
That is, a given piece of property pays the same taxes regardless of whether it’s put to productive use, so the higher the property taxes the higher the incentive to put it to productive use.
For a real life example, see Texas.
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April 1st, 2012 at 12:45 pm 128
@RTS, you’re a mess.
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April 1st, 2012 at 1:41 pm 129
More whining about property taxes. If they were too high, real estate wouldn’t be the most expensive in Canada:
But when he found the 2000 property tax notice for his home, Mr. Lewis was aghast. The 2011 TransLink levy on his property had increased to $420 from $90.61 in 2000 – more than fourfold. Over the same period, his bill for city hall services rose at a much slower pace, to $2,494 from $1,587.
“It does not seem reasonable,” he said, comparing TransLink’s percentage increase to the hike in municipal budgets.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/translinks-dependence-on-property-tax-called-unreasonable/article2388100/page1/
“Although TransLink’s portion of the tax rate is the same across the region, West Vancouver, with many of the highest property assessments in the region, feels the pinch more than others when TransLink increases property taxes. Many residents are seniors who have lived in their homes for years and are property rich but cash poor.”
First, as seniors they are more likely to take transit themselves or rely on the services of low-paid workers who need to take transit to be near them.
Second, the solution to being house poor is to sell the house you can’t afford anymore.
Third, too freaking bad, you get to reside in West Van and live better than 99.9999% of the world’s population. The great thing about property taxes is they can’t be dodged by the rich.
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April 1st, 2012 at 1:42 pm 130
Southseacompany #125
That article is a well written April Fools Day joke.
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April 1st, 2012 at 1:44 pm 131
@Patiently Waiting: Oh and one more thing, hell will freeze over before a toll is put on the Lions Gate bridge. Not even the NDP would have the nerve to do that
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April 1st, 2012 at 2:47 pm 132
More lenders warning against borrowing:
“Vancity executive Chris Dobrzanski warns that debt repayments will lead to slower growth” Georgia Straight, Mar 28/12.
http://www.straight.com/article-647816/vancouver/debt-takes-precedence
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April 1st, 2012 at 3:15 pm 133
Sitting in front of my building enjoying the sun, not one person has rung to view the newly reduced price unit that’s having an open house from 2-4… As of 3:15
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April 1st, 2012 at 3:23 pm 134
Lots of HAM at this property. Wouldn’t doubt if it sold within a couple of weeks. Ridiculous, I would only consider buying this place if it were 60% less. Maybe. No wonder people are leaving Vancouver. Ten years ago it would have been a decent starter home.
V939734
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?&PropertyId=11724462&PidKey=1389516662
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April 1st, 2012 at 3:24 pm 135
Larry’s new post is stating that condo prices in van have gone from march 2011′s 466,000 to march 2012 445,000, that’s a decline of nearly 5%
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April 1st, 2012 at 4:27 pm 136
I’m still confused. I thought that CNY Year of the Dragon all the Mainlanders were here to buy buy buy. Also, there was supposed to be a lag of a few weeks and all those sales would show up late February / early March.
Where are they?
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April 1st, 2012 at 5:15 pm 137
Larry’s site shows the following great Sunday night news
SFH February $1,235,244
SFH March $1,155,521
That’s a nice 6.5% drop in one month. Remember that the average downpayment in Canada according to Garth is 7%. One month to lose your DP – Nah, can’t happen in Vancouver.
Further, SFH prices are exactly where they were in February 2011. This means 0% in 1 yr. Huh? How’s is this possible? I saw helicopters… I wonder how many Vancouverites would believe this piece of news?
More fun facts, Apartments are down 4% from February 2011.
Add to this listings are up between 10%-17% depending on what type of property and sales down 24%-34%.
No matter how you spin this it is INCREDIBLY BEARISH!
At the risk of sounding the alarm too late… Its over baby!
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April 1st, 2012 at 5:51 pm 138
The march stats are soooo much more bearish than jan-feb. Aren’t sales usually better in march?
2 couples ended up going to see that open house…young and not Chinese
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April 1st, 2012 at 6:24 pm 139
@Patiently Waiting:
Actually the NDP has been quite vocal in its opposition to tolling existing bridges.
With respect to the Lions Gate, it was a toll bridge for decades before WAC Bennett’s government bought it – it had been privately owned. You can still see the footprint of the toll plazas at the north end.
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April 1st, 2012 at 6:28 pm 140
http://greaterfoolvancouver.blogspot.ca/
Apparently run by a Ukrainian woman!
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April 1st, 2012 at 6:41 pm 141
Went to 3 open houses in False Creek. Not very busy. No HAM.
The neighborhood was busting though.
Was told by the realtor that 85% of the land is leased, until 2036.
Mortgages must be repaid in 19 years max.
Still, super over priced ($675 000 for a 2 bedroom appt).
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April 1st, 2012 at 6:46 pm 142
“Telus’s Vancouver condos fly off the market” Glob&Mail, Apr 1/12;
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/teluss-vancouver-condos-fly-off-the-market/article2388764/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Home&utm_content=2388764
Oh, joy more media hype about 400 units ‘sold’, with no mention of another 16,000 for sale north of the Fraser that aren’t moving quickly.
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April 1st, 2012 at 6:59 pm 143
@Apocarypse Now: Presales are great because they require a small sum up front with very little consideration given to the inconveniences of routine operations management. There is still belief this market is going skywards. Heck you could even argue that condos are undervalued because they haven’t appreciated at 10% PA like their single detached brethren.
As much as I’m bearish on real estate, if I were a developer (which I’m not) I’d take the money.
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April 1st, 2012 at 7:01 pm 144
@Apocarypse Now: A HAM bear blog. Whocouldaknode.
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April 1st, 2012 at 7:16 pm 145
@patriotz: Of course they say that, before an election.
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April 1st, 2012 at 7:29 pm 146
“Ms. Goertz said Telus offered its employees priority in sales at Telus Gardens and 150 of them bought, even though the price discount was a modest one per cent.”
This could get interesting if the market goes down and these employees chose not to complete the purchase. What will the “Optiks” be if Telus has to sue their own employees?
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April 1st, 2012 at 8:48 pm 147
I do not understand this:
温哥华西区 独立屋 均价,中位数价下跌
2/24-3/25, 2012 vs 1/24-2/25, 2012
Vancouver West 中位数价比上个月下跌$318,000 (-13.7%)
Vancouver West 均价比上个月下跌$488,000 (-17.3%)
but looks frightening enough to make HAM think twice
(http://greaterfoolvancouver.blogspot.ca/
I like the hot air balloon made of tiny balloons ready to pop.
Must be one of Turner’s avatars)
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April 1st, 2012 at 8:58 pm 148
@jumpin in: Have a peek via Google Translate. http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fgreaterfoolvancouver.blogspot.ca%2F&act=url
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April 1st, 2012 at 9:29 pm 149
@Dave: Dave, I don’t agree with everything you say, but I respect your opinion. It would seem that many who come to this site are either too childish to welcome alternative views or lack the confidence to have their opinions questioned. I hope you keep posting despite the foreclosures!
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April 1st, 2012 at 9:47 pm 150
@Troll: My prediction: the foreclosure rate will be constant: the foreclosures on VCI comments will start decreasing just as the ones that matter in the real world start increasing.
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April 1st, 2012 at 9:47 pm 151
@McLovin:
“Further, SFH prices are exactly where they were in February 2011. ”
Does anyone know what the peak price was and how far we are down from that?
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April 1st, 2012 at 11:35 pm 152
http://news.ca.msn.com/local/britishcolumbia/backlog-wipeout-will-close-thousands-of-immigration-applications-3
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April 2nd, 2012 at 3:04 am 153
I went to a very uncrowded open house today where some lying realtor in the usual fancy clothes with the usual prestige-mobile (leased, no doubt) parked out front tried to get me to believe that housing prices were up this month. Guess he hadn’t read the new stats. I noted from his bio that among his previous occupations was used-car salesman. Why do some professions attract all the best and the brightest?
I am so sick of the way this city has been sold off and torn down. In my neighbourhood, spec builders continue to lunge to tear down smaller houses and bungalows that could have made affordable homes for families. These houses will be replaced by big, ugly, sloppily built homes made of sawdust and plastic that NO ONE WILL NOW BUY. Go, spec builders! Go, ball-less City of Vancouver “leaders,” letting this happen!
And the MSM is complicit in ruining the lives of some of these (admittedly stupid and greedy) spec builders as well as the lives of many who have to live and work here and can’t afford to do either. The MSM goes on and on and on publishing press releases from the realty industry that encourage the mindless and the faddish to commit RE lemmingcide. And those arrogant, self-deceived, monopolistic and supposedly sober Canadian banks! I can’t wait till the real-estate-industry-shills who own the MSM and City Hall start suffering from the consequences of what they’ve foisted on this town. I’m looking forward to helping publicize the corruption and incompetence here in case it helps make things different in the future. A future I for one will have been driven away from.
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April 2nd, 2012 at 9:31 am 154
@Savonarola: ” I can’t wait till the real-estate-industry-shills who own the MSM and City Hall start suffering from the consequences of what they’ve foisted on this town.”
Don’t hold your breath, the folks who own MSM and City Hall won’t suffer at all. It is the general public who will suffer the consequences and pay the bill.
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April 3rd, 2012 at 3:07 am 155
@CanuckDownUnder:
thanks for good info
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