Whistler Hotel Condo Prices Collapse

The Pique has an article about some remarkable goings-ons just a little ways north.  Some hotel condo units in Whistler are now selling for half their peak price.

Those who own a condo unit in a Whistler hotel are sitting on great potential, but at the moment the units are not showing great value.

Real estate consultant Denise Brown with Re/Max Sea to Sky Real Estate reported that a unit originally sold in the Four Seasons Whistler for about $1.1 million was recently resold for only $520,000.

The so-called Phase 2 units in Whistler have fallen victim to the globally depressed financial situation, said Brown.

“We’ve seen the prices come down significantly,” she said.

According to Brown, this segment of the real estate business is at the bottom of the cycle so prices are good right now. She said the people who are happiest in the condo hotel market are those who are in for the long-term and have made a lifestyle choice in purchasing a condo unit in a hotel.

Lifestyle.  Got it?  Lifestyle, Lifestyle, Lifestyle.  Just repeat the mantra and you’ll be fine.

Then there’s this gem:

Kelly said this segment of the real estate industry has improved in the last six months but people aren’t willing to spend as much in Whistler as they were a decade ago.

“It’s not anything wrong with Whistler or that Whistler is worth less,” said Kelly. “It is just that people are prepared to spend less.”

It’s not that Whistler is worth less than it has ever been worth, it’s that some people paid more than it was worth.

96 Responses to “Whistler Hotel Condo Prices Collapse”

- ♦ ↓ ↓ ↓ Click here to leap to comment form ↓ ↓ ↓ ♦ -

    If I spend half a million on condos I better get the whole building, not just one unit!

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    Anon, give it 12 months…

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    i’ve been saying it for years, and i’ll say it again. reaestate outside downtown vancouver can cororect but downtown won’t because it’s where the action is. people want the downtown lifestyle.

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    hate CMHC Says:
    4

    Very soon Vancouver will be what people will be willing to spend less for. oh, i forgot to insert a “way” there, should read “way less”. but then there wont be any “way” outta it, so should I add a “way” there. So many ways this “way” can screw your thought process. No way!!!! LOL

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    Bailing in BC Says:
    5

    @Rob A.:

    I’m in total agreement with you. It’s about LIFESTYLE. Lifestyle, lifestyle, lifestyle. There, I got it!

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    Anonymous Says:
    6

    I met a man who used to rent a 1 bedroom suite at the OV. His rent was atrocious. Then he got repeated lung problems, even ended in emergency ward with pneumonia. He then found out he had fibers in his lungs. It seems the ventilation in his suite was “shedding fibers” from the insulation.

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    southseacompany Says:
    7

    “Canadian home prices rise in January, Vancouver’s continue to fall” Van Sun, Mar 28/12

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canadian+home+prices+rise+January+Vancouver+continue+fall/6372993/story.html

    “More cooling was seen in the once red-hot Vancouver market, which fell 0.3 percent to log its fourth consecutive monthly decrease.”

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    weekly inventory graph update is available in the forum.

    Over the last month the average daily increase was:
    47
    At this rate we will reach 17,000 in 18 days (Apr-15-12)
    At this rate we will reach 20,000 in 81 days (Jun-18-12)
    and 25,000 by October-02-12

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    space889 Says:
    9

    @Anonymous: Wasn’t in some of the OV newstory a while ago? Anyways if this is true then isn’t your buddy facing much higher risk of cancer or some serious ailments? A lot of the stuff in insulations are very toxic?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Anonymous:
    I hope he sued the landlord for personal injury as well as refund of rent for supplying an unfit dwelling.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @WFT?:

    Correction: sue the landlord and the strata.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Rob A. Says:
    12

    can you guys stop downvoting my comments? it’s very poor netiquette. you should just be downvoting spam or comments that are rude other wise the comments aren’t balanced.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    13

    @Rob A.: sorry, any post that contradicts bears’ believes are voted down! It’s the rule.
    Posts bitching and whinning about RE are, for sure, voted up. Try it, it works.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    vangrl Says:
    14

    @McLovin

    “They don’t. Won’t even consider it. Virtually no US institution will even lend to a Canadian regardless of downpayment.

    They need to take a HELOC out on their property in Canada with a Canadian bank and use the money to buy the US property in cash unless they are dealing with the US arm of a Canadian bank such as BMO or RY in which case they will extend credit based on Canadian credit scores with a 25% down payment, regular rates +1.5-+2.0% and several other restrictions.”

    Is this true? my friend is going to Phoenix this week to look at properties, she told me that she is taking a mortgage out in the states, that as long as she comes up with 40% down that they will lend her money at 3.8% for a 15 year amm (15 years is max for non U.S citizens).
    Is she wrong? has she been mislead by the U.S realtor that she’s using?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    mortageslave Says:
    15

    Rob and the other ESL fool (believes?)
    post some valid facts or stats to back your comments. People that can’t grasp english and obviously don’t understand economics get voted down, simple. Go back to school.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    vangrl Says:
    16

    after reading a few comments after Mclovin’s I’m seeing that Canadians can take out a U.S mortgage if they put enough down. No need to answer my question.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @southseacompany: Looking at the Teranet index (XLS link available from http://www.housepriceindex.ca) it’s actually the 5th consecutive month of reported declines. Not that it matters until we hit a 10-month stretch like we did in 2008-2009…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    interesting Says:
    18

    I’ve been browsing http://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver, for those of you who don’t know reddit is very popular liberal young people. The opinions I see there regarding realestate are astoundingly stupid. It just gives you an idea of what the average person is thinking.

    http://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/r608m/storm_clouds_forming_over_vancouvers_realestate/c43ig5z?context=3

    http://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/rfccc/vancouver_real_estate_correction_now_predicted/c45ff7v

    http://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/r608m/storm_clouds_forming_over_vancouvers_realestate/c438iwt

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Marinegate Says:
    19

    @b5baxter: Thanks for the graph, here’s a direct link for people that just want to click to it:

    http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/inventory-graph/forum/topic/inventory-graph/?topic_page=2&num=15#post-2339

    (there’s a little # symbol by each comment there that will give you a direct link)

    We’re still at the highest point of the year on that graph and the line doesn’t seem to be tapering down as much as I expected it to. The most recent update kind of looks like it could be the start of the ‘next leg up’. If it follows the same line as 2008 look out below!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    McLovin Says:
    20

    Is this true? my friend is going to Phoenix this week to look at properties, she told me that she is taking a mortgage out in the states, that as long as she comes up with 40% down that they will lend her money at 3.8% for a 15 year amm (15 years is max for non U.S citizens).
    Is she wrong? has she been mislead by the U.S realtor that she’s using?

    I said “virtually”. Your friend obviously found a US bank to play ball. (I would certainly verify with the bank in writing before removng subjects)

    One off stories aside, it is almost impossible for a Canadian to get a US mortgage regardless of DP. They are just not interested in the business and they have many new regulations since 2008. Prior to 2008 it was quite easy.

    Do your own research but trust me when I say that I have a lot of knowledge with this specific topic.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Last batch of invite codes to vancouverpeak went fast, so here are five more:

    hj02-q9ip-cmo3
    ty3a-62on-8vd4
    osc9-a0p0-mlqq
    2kxv-kem6-k3jv
    40cw-6iyg-4qvf
    

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @mortageslave:

    What about Grammar? Capitalize the first letter of the sentence. You should go to school.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    A good piece to read from the Whisperer today…

    (…)
    Such is the case with this property at 6231 Gibbons Drive in Richmond.

    This 3,500 square foot house sits on a huge 21,857 foot lot in the prestigious Terra Nova neighbourhood.

    It’s been on the market for a long time, originally listed on February 28th, 2008 for $2,388,000, the home competes for buyers with it’s neighbour at 6251 Gibbons Drive (listed for $2,480,000).
    (…)
    I am told 6231 Gibbons Drive sold this week.

    After lowering the asking price to $1,888,000, the property sold for $1,428,000. That’s $960,000 off the original asking price or 40% lower.

    -40% in HAMland… ouch!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    the line on that graph for 2011 is cut. Do you know what we peaked at that year?

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    Anonymouse Says:
    25

    @Makaya: “-40% in HAMland… ouch!”

    Is it possible that that and the neighbouring property were owned by the same person, and their asking prices were ridiculous?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    26

    ‘i’ve been saying it for years, and i’ll say it again. reaestate outside downtown vancouver can cororect but downtown won’t because it’s where the action is. people want the downtown lifestyle. ‘

    And of course, it’s impossible to rent downtown, especially since everyone who buys a condo actually lives in it. Good grief! I never realized there were IQ’s less than zero until I read some of the postings on this blog.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Clockbike Clockbike Says:
    27

    Please note everyone, that CBC radio 1 will be broadcasting the 2012 Federal Budget Special at 1:00pm Local time, (one hour from now).

    You can also stream it, here:

    http://www.cbc.ca/liveradio/popup/index.html?networkKey=cbc_radio_one&programKey=kelowna

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    28

    @mortageslave: what is the point having good english, understand economics, know how to read coloful charts and …housepoor?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Anonymous: House-poor, I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

    what does house poor mean?

    A situation that describes a person who spends a large proportion of his or her total income on home ownership, including mortgage payments, property taxes, maintenance and utilities. House poor individuals are short of cash for discretionary items and tend to have trouble meeting other financial obligations like vehicle payments.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    mortageslave Says:
    30

    @YAK

    WTF does capitalization have to do with Grammer you ####ing moron!

    Back on to topic, 2 cent levy on GAS coming on Sunday. Price of everything is rising, of course we can afford to pay more for houses. Are we expecting anything interesting from Flaherty’s budget speach at 1pm today? I see he’s raising the retirement age to 67. I’m not counting on seeing any of this 35 years from now anyways…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Anonymous:
    If the OV is supposed to be LEED compliant, there should have been a plan for Indoor Air Quality in place. It just shows how useless LEED can be if it isn’t enforced and followed through.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @mortageslave:

    Why did you capitalize the word “grammar”?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    33

    @vangrl: “…as long as she comes up with 40% down that they will lend her money at 3.8% for a 15 year amm (15 years is max for non U.S citizens).”

    It certainly seems reasonable that a US bank would lend under these terms. If you find out the name of the bank, please post as I’m interested in buying an investment property down South also.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    UnagiDon Says:
    34

    More US taxpayer bailouts of those in negative equity via “incentivized principal reduction”:
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/03/geithner-wants-to-throw-still-more.html

    Canada’s financial system is the envy of the world because we don’t need to bother with such pussyfooting: CMHC is unequivocally backed by the taxpayers.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    35

    @Anonymouse: “Is it possible that that and the neighbouring property were owned by the same person, and their asking prices were ridiculous?”

    I’d say it’s more than possible that you’re up to your useless nitpicking again. You claim to not be a bull, but I say: If it walks like a bull and talks like a bull…

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    jumpin in Says:
    36

    MLS showing only 60 properties in Richmond instead of 1036… I triple checked all my clickable options… Strange.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @jumpin in: It looks like listings from REBGV aren’t coming through properly– it’s the same story on Realtor.ca… But in Surrey and FV areas, as well as on Vancouver Island, it looks like listings are showing up as they should.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Disappointing.

    “The budget did not include any immediate measures to deal with a housing market that Mr. Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney have repeatedly expressed concern about in recent months, as borrowers take advantage of low interest rates to pile up debt. Nonetheless, the budget says Ottawa will introduce “enhancements to the governance and oversight framework” for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. CMHC is the Crown corporation that backstops risk in the housing sector by providing insurance on mortgages.”

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tory-budget-slashes-52-billion-in-spending-gives-boomers-a-pass-on-oas-reform/article2386044/page2/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Makaya Makaya Says:
    39

    @Meh: “The government says the changes are needed so the program – and Ottawa’s bottom line – are not overwhelmed by the large baby-boom generation of Canadians born between 1946 and 1964. Yet all but the tail end of this cohort will be protected from the higher eligibility age, which will be phased in between 2023 and 2029.”

    A government run by the boomers for the boomers… at the expense of their children and grandchildren. Shameful and disgusting!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymouse Says:
    40

    @Anonymous:

    “I’d say it’s more than possible that you’re up to your useless nitpicking again. ”

    So it’s nit-picking to point out that using a single property to declare Richmond 40% off is nonsense? Riiight.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    cmhc Hater Says:
    41

    CMHC on run

    http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/29/ottawa-to-toughen-cmhc-oversight/

    “The government will introduce enhancements to the governance and oversight framework of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.,” according to the budget, which provided few details about what that will mean. “The government will propose legislative amendments to strengthen oversight of CMHC and to ensure its commercial activities are managed in a manner that promotes the stability of the financial system.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    42

    @WFT?:
    “Why did you capitalize the word “grammar”?”

    He didn’t. Obviously he was talking about Kelsey Grammer.

    :-;

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    43

    @cmhc Hater:

    “The government will propose legislative amendments to strengthen oversight of CMHC and to ensure its commercial activities are managed in a manner that promotes the stability of the financial system.

    There you have it; we’ve reached a point in our economy where housing is the financial system. This has been achieved by short-sighted governments conspiring with greedy bankers to play crack dealer to a nation of addicts. Wait until the dealer can’t get any more stuff; the withdrawal symptoms are going to be a doozy. Unfortunately, those of us who didn’t take part will still feel the effects, like an innocent pedestrian standing on the corner of Carrall and East Hastings.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @cmhc Hater: Any mention of an increase to the CMHC cap? Or could that happen outside of the budget?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    cmhc Hater Says:
    45

    Thanks goodness they did not change the amortization, dp rules. The fools would have rushed in to capitalize on pre-approveds and this sucker would have lived through another peak buying season. Maybe “F@^t”-y had that in his mind. Maybe instead of making it public, he is going to tell CMHC bosses to follow the unwritten rule of 10% DP and 25 year amorts. That is a much better choice IMHO.

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    cmhc Hater Says:
    46

    @Meh: No increase in cap is a given as otherwise CMHC would not have come up the “conservative” insurance plan they did a few days ago. So, yeah, no increase in budget.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    47

    I think that Garth (who was once Minister of Revenue) got it about right:

    http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/03/29/f-factor/

    It’s still pedal to the metal.

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    Anonymous Says:
    48

    @vangrl:

    I don’t think any of the missing data is higher than the peak shown.

    Next week’s graph will include some of the missing data.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Federal budget: http://www.budget.gc.ca/2012/plan/pdf/Plan2012-eng.pdf

    Some items of note
    – Infrastructure spending decreases substantially
    – Elimination of OETC
    – Elimination of several partnership tax avoidance loopholes
    – Curtailing of thin capitalization rules for non-residents

    patriotz will like this: most of the public sector cuts will be in the Ottawa region. Most of the impact will take place in 2013 as departments try to figure out who/what to cut.

    Then there’s the off-balance-sheet stuff, notably CMHC insurance in force limitations.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    50

    “Doug Porter, deputy chief economist with the Bank of Montreal, said it sounds like Ottawa wants to clear up who CMHC reports to ultimately. “It sounds like they want the finance minister to have the ultimate say when they believe it is necessary to make changes in policy,” he said.”

    holy crap. it covers mortgages the same size as the national debt and you mean they don’t know who it reports to??? are you kidding me? yes, i know the correct answer is the RE industry, but still, you have to be kidding me.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    51

    @Anonymous:
    The correct answer is, of course, Stephen Harper, just like every other branch of the federal government.

    CMHC has always been under the direct control of the Federal cabinet of the day and the current language in the budget is just an attempt to be seen to be “doing something” when in fact the intention is to carry on business as usual.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Makaya Makaya Says:
    52

    @jesse:
    I love this line on page 50:

    “Further Developing Canada’s Financial Sector Advantage 3 3 6″

    WTF is that?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Again.. Says:
    53

    God, every year, the bears, lead by Garth almighty, predict that the government will make some sweeping change that will hammer the real estate market come budget time. And every year, the bears, and almighty Garth, are wrong as they always read too much into the political speak of the feds. The government wants to keep the party going, and as a decade of ever rising prices has demonstrated, they can. Hell, even when the government makes some minor changes, the end is heralded as around the corner : ) Oh well, the doom and gloom wishes of the bears have been dashed again for 2012. Oh well, there is always 2013 as the year of the crash….lol : )

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymouse Says:
    54

    @cmhc Hater:

    “Thanks goodness they did not change the amortization, dp rules. The fools would have rushed in to capitalize on pre-approveds and this sucker would have lived through another peak buying season. ”

    You’d have been saying it was good news if he had changed the rules, too! Hilarious!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Anonymous: “you have to be kidding me”

    Yes that is a joke. As patriotz noted the oversight has always been with the DoF, just that CMHC has, over decades of careful wording in policies and legislation, structured itself to make it difficult for its boss to see what they’re doing. That’s about to change.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    gordholio Says:
    56

    53 Again: Right now, you can’t buy an SFH, not even the mouldiest, tiniest, oldest, most unliveable piece of shit, in Wetcouver or any of the municipalities adjoing it (that includes West Van, North Van, Burnaby, Richmond, Ladner, Tsawwassen, even weird old New Westminster and most of Coquitlam) for less than a half million (!) dollars. Everyone would was conceivably stupid enough to buy has already bought. Meanwhile, the correction is full scale on in the peripheral regions, and inventories are rising everywhere.

    Property taxes are on the rise. Taxes in general are on the rise. A liter of gas runs $1.43-plus. A gallon of milk is upwards of $5. A case of 12 beers is $25 or so. The Asian horde (such as it were) is pulling back, realizing it can buy twice the house for half the price in areas where it *doesn’t* rain every f*cking day of the year. New construction is rampant. New rules *will* come into effect regulating who can quality for a mortgage. Every day, more articles and spots appear in the mainstream media that call this market what it is: A bubble, ready to burst.

    And the federal government, knowing this nation’s fragile housing-based economy will come apart as said burst intensifies, has worked itself into a corner from which safe extrication is virtually impossible.

    Now, what is it again that housing “bulls” are celebrating today?

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    jumpin in Says:
    57

    http://www.canada.com/news/world/Ottawa+toughen+CMHC+oversight/6381240/story.html

    CMHC will be the administrator of the covered bond program which will be available to federally and provincially regulated mortgage lenders in Canada. “A legislative framework will support financial stability by helping lenders find new sources of funding and my making the market for Canadian covered bonds more robust,” according to the budget.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Patiently Waiting Says:
    59

    @patriotz: Garth tires me though. He raised bear expectations about the budget sky-high (25 year am, higher dp), backpeddles at the last minute, and then declares he was saw it all along.

    I feel manipulated :(

    Decisions about the budget weren’t just made in the last 48 hrs. Contrary to Garth’s earlier speculation, there was never was going to be anything about mortgages announced today.

    Still, Garth is probably right that we are going to be seeing some big changes, just behind the scenes. Easier optics.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    vangrl Says:
    60

    this little essay should be on the cover of the Globe & Mail tomorrow morning, get on it Gordholio!

    “53 Again: Right now, you can’t buy an SFH, not even the mouldiest, tiniest, oldest, most unliveable piece of shit, in Wetcouver or any of the municipalities adjoing it (that includes West Van, North Van, Burnaby, Richmond, Ladner, Tsawwassen, even weird old New Westminster and most of Coquitlam) for less than a half million (!) dollars. Everyone would was conceivably stupid enough to buy has already bought. Meanwhile, the correction is full scale on in the peripheral regions, and inventories are rising everywhere.

    Property taxes are on the rise. Taxes in general are on the rise. A liter of gas runs $1.43-plus. A gallon of milk is upwards of $5. A case of 12 beers is $25 or so. The Asian horde (such as it were) is pulling back, realizing it can buy twice the house for half the price in areas where it *doesn’t* rain every f*cking day of the year. New construction is rampant. New rules *will* come into effect regulating who can quality for a mortgage. Every day, more articles and spots appear in the mainstream media that call this market what it is: A bubble, ready to burst.

    And the federal government, knowing this nation’s fragile housing-based economy will come apart as said burst intensifies, has worked itself into a corner from which safe extrication is virtually impossible.

    Now, what is it again that housing “bulls” are celebrating today?”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Patiently Waiting: “we are going to be seeing some big changes, just behind the scenes”

    The “behind the scenes” changes have been in the works for months now, and anybody who was paying attention, or following local real estate bear blogs, would have figured this out. That Turner is so affixed on amortization lengths and downpayment percentages is odd when these days the levers are elsewhere.

    I usually don’t read Turner; I read his “F Factor” post today and am again reminded why my interests lie elsewhere.

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    vangrl Says:
    62

    Garth continuously back-peddles and has been totally off with the timing of all his predictions, and he’ll NEVER admit it.

    I honestly find the comments and predictions from the followers of this blog much more accurate and interesting, plus Meth makes me laugh.

    “@patriotz: Garth tires me though. He raised bear expectations about the budget sky-high (25 year am, higher dp), backpeddles at the last minute, and then declares he was saw it all along.

    I feel manipulated :(

    Decisions about the budget weren’t just made in the last 48 hrs. Contrary to Garth’s earlier speculation, there was never was going to be anything about mortgages announced today.

    Still, Garth is probably right that we are going to be seeing some big changes, just behind the scenes. Easier optics.”

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    One thing to mention on this Whistler topic is that this example is for condo hotels, which are being absolutely destroyed right now. They operate off a different model, owners have their units rented out on short term stays and in some cases have some preference for usage themselves. This model is relatively recent, more a gimmick akin to a timeshare, and the market has justifiably collapsed. This market’s distress was highlighted in a recent BC Business article and given the once-over.

    The meat of the Whistler condo market — the standard owner-occupied strata stuff — isn’t down nearly as much as cited in this post. Still distressed, mind, and condo fees can be substantial, but I don’t think it’s 50%… yet (?)

    Just something to keep in mind.

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    gordholio Says:
    64

    Thanks, vangrl. Maybe I’ll proofread it before sending it in. Stupid spelling mistakes. :-)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    65

    @jesse: “The meat of the Whistler condo market — the standard owner-occupied strata stuff — isn’t down nearly as much as cited in this post. Still distressed, mind, and condo fees can be substantial, but I don’t think it’s 50%… yet (?)”

    These so called ‘Phase II’ Whistler condos are something else! It boggles the mind that they were enough gullible people in the world to buy enough of these units that there would be a entire hotel of them let alone multiple hotels in Whistler. These turds weren’t worth 10% of their peak value even before they were originally sold.

    I’m not clear why anyone would buy a regular condo. I can only assume that it’s some kind of plant material that buys ‘Phase II’ type condos. Time share buyers are somewhere below that level – perhaps gravel or sand?

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    shriller Says:
    66

    Interesting that they didn’t put anything specific about CMHC into the budget. Clearly they have indicated that changes are going to happen regarding MBS financing. But it’s almost as if they are trying to slide changes though without drawing much attention to it. I wonder if they are concerned that Joe and Jane Public might rush out and leverage themselves to the hilt now if they heard changes to mortgage financing were about to occur. Instead the budget gets top billing in the MSM and the CMHC changes occur in the background. Aiming for a soft landing?

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    @shriller: “Interesting that they didn’t put anything specific about CMHC into the budget.”

    More likely the new laws are drafted but not ready for disclosure yet. They are talking legislative changes — an indication on how insidious CMHC has become — and that will be tabled in parliament either later on this spring or in the fall.

    I read this less of an off-the-cuff and more of a calculated and planned budget. They’ve had a year to plan it with full concentration.

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    I read this less of an off-the-cuff and more of a calculated and planned budget. They’ve had a year to plan it with full concentration.

    _______

    For pete’s sake, stop reading into every action or non-action. You guys have been wrong for bloody years.

    I will wager that none of you are actually in government relations, so you know nothing of what you speak. You have perception bias, and you are imparting what you HOPE and believe SHOULD happen within the actions of your federal representatives.

    Sorry kids, but government does not work that way (coming from someone that works in GR).

    Expect the party to continue for some time. You have all made a huge miscalculation of the government and financial system, and you will be paying for it for years (as a renter/ I want to own desperately types).

    Get over it – you rolled the dice and you lost.

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    paulb. Says:
    69

    New Listings 239
    Price Changes 104
    Sold Listings 151

    TI:16180

    http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

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    Anonymous Says:
    70

    @GR: ….Get over it – you rolled the dice and you lost. ….

    I think you’re a bit mistaken. I didn’t roll anything, I stayed out of the game (and you’re right, it really is a game). Wasn’t it you that rolled the dice? So far it seems you’ve won,… so far. But, you know, ‘the house always wins’, and that’s not the ‘house’ you’re living in. Good luck though.

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    Anonymous Says:
    71

    @jesse: “They operate off a different model, owners have their units rented out on short term stays and in some cases have some preference for usage themselves. This model is relatively recent, more a gimmick akin to a timeshare”

    I wonder when we will see something like this in Vancouver? Partial ownership of some kind right from the sales center. Share your condo with a few others and stay on your parents couch when the other owner uses it. Or better yet the place comes with bunk beds. Hey I am calling Rennie to get this thing off the ground ASAP.

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    Conrad Says:
    72

    @GR: Good post GR. your right on about the perception bias on this blog.

    Another big bull day. Get with the program guys, this country is setup for home ownership and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. This is how the government gives back after it takes so much in income tax.

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    Anonymous Says:
    73

    Re Budget

    F knows what everyone around here knows. The market will correct on its own regardless of what the government does. If the government somehow had control over housing bubbles we would not see all of them collapsing around the world.

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    Anonymous Says:
    74

    @Conrad: “This is how the government gives back after it takes so much in income tax.”

    Too funny. By inflating housing the government is implementing a stimulus program 100% financed by those buying houses at inflated prices. The government should be thanking fools like you for financing the stimulus. It is an easy way to infect money into the economy. Of course like all stimulus programs the money has to be paid back and there is little value left at the end. Guess who gets to pay it back? You Conrad.

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    Laibach Laibach Says:
    75

    @jesse:

    A week ago at the Whistler, I was in the hotel’s hot-tub chatting and drinking beer with the guy that owns the 1B apartment in that same hotel where I stayed for a week. I noticed that there are plenty apartments for sale (650sf – 310K/320K) in the hotel and he said “Right, it is good time to buy now (???). Apartments are priced at exactly the same price what I paid in 1999.”

    I don’t know what happened in the meantime between 1999 and 2012 with those apartments prices in order to drive some conclusions?

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    Not much of a name... Says:
    76

    @Laibach: Sad part is, for some people it’s always a good time to buy.

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    Anonymouse Says:
    77

    @jesse:

    “but I don’t think it’s 50%”

    Nowhere near. Some will say that makes me a bull. I’m not. I just think that when people overstate their argument in such a demonstrably false way then they lose all credibility. Whistler isn’t 50% off. Richmond isn’t 40% off. If the evidence for a bubble is so strong then I’ve no idea why they feel the need to exaggerate.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    78

    @Anonymouse:
    ” I just think that when people overstate their argument in such a demonstrably false way then they lose all credibility”

    As though all the bears were calling for a 70% nominal decline? You’re saying “demonstrably false” without bothering to do any demonstrating.

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    Boombust Says:
    79

    “The market will correct on its own regardless of what the government does…”

    So true. And, whether or not we have 40 year OR 25 year amortizations is, ultimately, irrelevant.

    After all, the US home buyer can get a 30 year mortgage AND write off the interest. Throw in in historically LOW rates and you get…well, never mind.

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    Bull-Market Says:
    80

    The Met in Metrotown expected to sell out.
    Keep crying.

    Telus garden already sold out many of their units to telus employees before offering them to the public.

    You bears never learn. How many here posted since 2007 and waited for a crash that has never happened? Worse yet, how many still haven’t bought since posting here and see that sky-rocketing housing prices slam you in the face? Raise your hands.

    Vote down this post to show that you’ve been here waiting to buy a home and missed the train.

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    @Anonymous:

    “Too funny. By inflating housing the government is implementing a stimulus program 100% financed by those buying houses at inflated prices. ”

    That’s exactly right. And the hilarious thing is that people don’t mind. It’s stimulative inflation that people feel good about. People are weird.

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    Patiently Waiting Says:
    82

    @N: Inflating housing is also leading to the building of more housing (low quality as it may be).

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    Conrad Says:
    83

    Please vote down this post if you throw away money on rent, and do not participate in the government wealth distribution channel that is real estate.

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    good-format Says:
    84

    Copied from PaulB’s number
    http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

     Date      Listing  Price(+-)  Sold   Inv     Inv(+-)  S/L(%)
    Mar 01       313      94       123   14,912      5     39.3 
    Mar 02       251      97       163   14,919      7     64.9
    
    Mar 05       338     134       118   15,069    150     34.9
    Mar 06       298     114       163   15,161     92     54.7
    Mar-07       260     114        71   15,305    144     27.3
    Mar-08       237     106       152   15,345     40     64.1
    Mar-09       229      76        69   15,454    109     30.1
    
    Mar-12       306     119       120   15,588    134     39.2
    Mar-13       290     122       146   15,640     52     50.3
    Mar-14       238      97       133   15,701     61     55.9
    Mar-15       208      83       180   15,693     -8     86.5
    Mar-16       224      91        97   15,734     41     43.3
    
    Mar-19       319     138       193   15,778     44     60.5
    Mar-20       267     118       158   15,837     59     59.2
    Mar-21       238     104       153   15,864     27     64.3
    Mar-22       219     107       136   15,904     40     62.1
    Mar-23       204     113       123   15,940     36     60.3
    
    Mar-26       303     161       127   16,038     98     41.9
    Mar-27       268     139       162   16,089     51     60.4
    Mar-28       259     118       104   16,173     84     40.2
    Mar-29       239     104       151   16,180      7     63.2
    
    Total-Cur  5,508   2,349     2,842           1,273     51.6
    5 day-avg    255     127       133              55     52.4
    Total-Est  5,763   2,476     2,975   16,235  1,328     51.6
    

    The estimated sales is 27% below 2011 and 13% below the avg of last 10 year for March.

    Historical March Sold and listing

    Year    Sold   Listing	S/L(%)
    2001    2,315   3,805   60.8
    2002    3,392   5,168   65.6
    2003    3,304   4,272   77.3
    2004    4,371   5,709   76.6
    2005    3,938   5,083   77.5
    2006    4,033   5,767   69.9
    2007    3,582   5,456   65.7
    2008    2,997   5,674   52.8
    2009    2,265   4,385   51.7
    2010    3,137   7,004   44.8
    2011    4,080   6,797   60.0
    
    Avg     3,401   5,375   63.3
    Median  3,392   5,456   65.6
    

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    Anonymous Says:
    85

    @patriotz:

    Whistler is not down 50%. Are you seriously asking me to prove that statement?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Date Listing Price(+-) Sold Inv Inv(+-) S/L(%)
    Mar 01 313 94 123 14,912 5 39.3
    Mar 02 251 97 163 14,919 7 64.9

    Mar 05 338 134 118 15,069 150 34.9
    Mar 06 298 114 163 15,161 92 54.7
    Mar-07 260 114 71 15,305 144 27.3
    Mar-08 237 106 152 15,345 40 64.1
    Mar-09 229 76 69 15,454 109 30.1

    Mar-12 306 119 120 15,588 134 39.2
    Mar-13 290 122 146 15,640 52 50.3
    Mar-14 238 97 133 15,701 61 55.9
    Mar-15 208 83 180 15,693 -8 86.5
    Mar-16 224 91 97 15,734 41 43.3

    Mar-19 319 138 193 15,778 44 60.5
    Mar-20 267 118 158 15,837 59 59.2
    Mar-21 238 104 153 15,864 27 64.3
    Mar-22 219 107 136 15,904 40 62.1
    Mar-23 204 113 123 15,940 36 60.3

    Mar-26 303 161 127 16,038 98 41.9
    Mar-27 268 139 162 16,089 51 60.4
    Mar-28 259 118 104 16,173 84 40.2
    Mar-29 239 104 151 16,180 7 63.2

    Total-Cur 5,508 2,349 2,842 1,273 51.6
    5 day-avg 255 127 133 55 52.4
    Total-Est 5,763 2,476 2,975 16,235 1,328 51.6

    The estimated sales is 27% below 2011 and 13% below the avg of last 10 year for March.

    Historical March Sold and listing

    Year Sold Listing S/L(%)
    2001 2,315 3,805 60.8
    2002 3,392 5,168 65.6
    2003 3,304 4,272 77.3
    2004 4,371 5,709 76.6
    2005 3,938 5,083 77.5
    2006 4,033 5,767 69.9
    2007 3,582 5,456 65.7
    2008 2,997 5,674 52.8
    2009 2,265 4,385 51.7
    2010 3,137 7,004 44.8
    2011 4,080 6,797 60.0

    Avg 3,401 5,375 63.3
    Median 3,392 5,456 65.6

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    Good to see some of you catching on that Garth Turner is just a fear mongering dummy.

    Things still flat out there?

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    Anonymous Says:
    88

    @Anonymous: …Whistler is not down 50%. Are you seriously asking me to prove that statement?…

    Whistler’s not down 50%! It’s more a case of people only wanting to spend half as much. :) :) :)

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    Hibernating Renter Says:
    89

    Flaherty announces $24B deficit this year, $21B deficit next year, totally by coincidence a federal election, then a surplus the following year. It’s a miracle!

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    Oh… and welcome to the Spring market.

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    Averages are a little down this month incase you didn’t already know. Going to make it up in April though.

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    hey everybody who’s ready to laugh?

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    Lowlifes and their fucked business style and culture. Just look their faces, I wouldn’t trust them anything but somehow Vancouver and BC likes that garbage more than anything.

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-29/sun-hung-kai-says-co-chairmen-arrested-for-corruption-probe.html

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    [...] 29th 2012) -The boomer trigger -New budget slashes $5.2 billion -Ottawa to toughen CMHC oversight -This rant brought to you by Gordholio -TD: don’t worry about the banks -Banks tighten condo lending on bubble fears -The 3-inch [...]

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    @Anonymouse:

    Please re-read my original post which you thought was “silly.”

    I never made any claims about whether there were more good times than bad times. I never made any claims about whether investing in real estate was a good investment more often than a bad investment.

    The scenario I described was simply to point out it is wrong to assume that there is NEVER a bad time to buy real estate. One should look at the fundamentals.

    I have owned real estate in the past because based on the fundamentals I thought it was a good time to buy. I don’t currently own real estate because I think the fundamentals show it is not a good time to buy.

    Some of the fundamentals now appear similar to what they were in 1981. And if someone purchases real estate now it is very possible that they could experience the same negative consequences as those who bought in 1981.

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