Friday Free-for-all!

It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s a good friday to have an open topic discussion thread for the weekend!

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

VREB president unaware of own stats?
Updated inventory graph
Growing majority plan no home buying
Blaming Chinese for high prices racist
Line of credit rules to be tightened
Bank executives don’t follow policy?
Rules cool condo market
Real estate sales continue to cool
Hottest boomtown, Regina?
US Banks neglect seized homes 

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

PS: you’ll find a new link above the comment section that will enable you to view all comments in chronological order.

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McLovin
Guest
McLovin

We’ve had a 40% S/L in “Prime Time Season”

How are you going to spin this Realtards?

jesse
Member

The HELOC changes would be big. Geographic focused credit curbs would be big. A slowdown in China would be big. Falling population growth would be big.

All of these together: big.

patriotz
Member
Ask former senior planner Larry Beasley about the view that Chinese foreign buyers are driving up the market and he’ll tell you it’s “bullshit.” He also points out that it is “racist.” I agree it’s bullshit, but it’s not racist at all, any more than blaming Russians for high prices in London or NYC. Or Albertans for the high prices in Okanagan (now abating). Nor is it racist for any province to restrict offshore ownership, as PEI does. Because – drum roll – race is independent of your citizenship or your domicile. Garr, like every other local commentator, also completely misses the boat as to the root cause of the bubble in Vancouver. It’s not about limits to supply, which has not been restricted relative to demand as can be seen in rents. It’s about speculation and easy credit, just… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member
I thought I would post about the Shadow Inventory. This is the inventory where the owners have removed their listing awaiting the market to improve. Some interesting stats can be seen by this and we can see that in this slow market, the shadow inventory is large. One area where I have the stats for is for Van-West detached. I took the listings at September 1, 2011 and compared to what has occurred since then. Some interesting stats have emerged. There were 648 properties listed for sale on September 1. Of these, only 238 sold or only 36%. OF the remaining 410 properties, 185 are now listed for sale and 225 are not. This means there are at least 225 of failed sales attempts which now sit in the Shadows. Add this to the actual listings and there are another… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member

One more thought on stats before the weekend. Of the 850 or so properties for sale in Van-West detached, there are 193 “flippers” or those which purchased their property in the past 2 years. I would say a 2-year hold is a flip. These are the ones most likely to push this market down when it gets soft.

Next week when I have some more time, I’ll try to do some area by area flipping analysis to see where the largest ratio of flippers are!!

Happy weekend.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@zrh2yvr:
The people who will push this market down will be the ones with more equity. They will put those flippers into foreclosure or even bankruptcy.

If there were two houses for sale, one with 1.5 million in equity and another with 100k in equity (we’re talking van-west), who do you think will be willing to drop their price first?

jesse
Member

@patriotz: Beasley seems to be confusing “[ethnic] Chinese]” with “Chinese [national]”. Arguably the source of capital for real estate purchases should be traced to determine if they benefit a city in the long run but it should be done carefully. Saying “Chinese” is extremely dangerous without qualification, and even with qualification most politicians won’t touch it because it is so easily distorted.

Chief
Guest
Chief

@zrh2yvr:

perhaps west side sellers would rather delist the property than discount.
Aren’t they supposed to be rich enough to have this kind of patience?

The Ant
Member

@Chief: Like that guy that was complaining about $500 a year in translink property tax?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

I realize that every realtor wants to get their hands on as many properties as possible and that what I am about to suggest is counter to that basic need every realtor has, but do you think it is possible that some body, like the REBGV, would try to keep a control on the amount of inventory?

patriotz
Member

@Anonymous:
REBGV gets paid by the realtor for every listing whether it sells or not.

Seems to me it’s the realtor who has the incentive to reduce non-performing listings, not REBGV.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

From “Strategics” April Report (not sure who these guys are):
http://vancouvercondoreport.ca/MarketOverview.aspx

“Condo resales in almost all Greater Vancouver condo markets are down from last year. An expected response to increasing prices. But the new condo market, primarily high rise pre-sales, is hot with some projects selling out in record time. In essence, the demand from potential home owners (not much room for speculation in the resale market) is down but the demand from speculators (aka “investors”) is up.

patriotz
Member

@southseacompany:
“But the new condo market, primarily high rise pre-sales, is hot with some projects selling out in record time.”

Actually buying a property (which requires the full purchase price either in hand or borrowed) and buying a pre-sale contract (which requires only a deposit) are completely different things and you can’t compare the “demand” for them.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

According to this….Carney may be thinking of doing something re household debt levels afterall. I wonder what that might be…
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Bank+Canada+could+crack+down+household+debt+Carney/6421389/story.html

dunkin
Guest
dunkin

Is this asshole for real? It got out of hand about 40% ago you moron.

Mark Carney says he would intervene if housing debt got out of hand
at 13:10 on April 06, 2012, EDT.
Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press
5OTTAWA – Mark Carney has a dilemma: He views record high household debt the number one domestic risk to the economy, but believes he would hurt the recovery if he raised interest rates to slow borrowing.

But the Bank of Canada governor said in an interview with The Canadian Press that he would be prepared to intervene if things got out of hand.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

@dunkin: “Is this asshole for real?”

NOPE TROLOLOLOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkfVdrtLcRs&feature=related

Pom Pom
Guest
Pom Pom

“Is this asshole for real? It got out of hand about 40% ago you moron.”

that is result when you allow banking scum oligarchs to run our country. democracy my ass!

Eddie
Guest
Eddie
stagnate
Guest
stagnate

dunkin says: 5OTTAWA – Mark Carney has a dilemma: He views record high household debt the number one domestic risk to the economy, but believes he would hurt the recovery if he raised interest rates to slow borrowing.
But the Bank of Canada governor said in an interview with The Canadian Press that he would be prepared to intervene if things got out of hand.

although carney has done a decent job, i can’t recall a central banker so full of doublespeak. it really seems he tells his audience (of the day) what they want to hear. it’s common sense that debt levels are as high as they can go and that high debt levels are deflationary (at least in the short or medium term). ergo carney is almost a non factor at this point. he gets way too much play.

asalvari1
Guest
asalvari1

Admin/Pope

Thank you !!! for the new link “Click here to view all comments chronologically” !!!

Regards…

registered
Member
registered

19 stagnate Says: “although carney has done a decent job…”

The ‘recovery’ largely depends on the same finanacial and construction/real estate/home improvement sectors fueled by personal home debt. It’s unsustainable and will ultimately prove catastrophic, when this debt is called it will change the face of our society. The Feds are already out there ‘lowering expectations’.
‘Decent’ on what scale?

RippedtoShit
Guest
RippedtoShit

The local Chinese contingent who made (and retain, on a leveraged basis) their wealth on RE speculation is about to get hammered, absolutely obliterated.

Given herd mentality (which is common to all races and cultures), we could see a lot of damage over the coming months…

And gosh forbid when rates actually rise, the whole house of cards will cave in.

Shit stinks, plug your nose.

Navin R. Johnson
Guest
Navin R. Johnson

Fixie guy. You are 100% correct. There is only one way out of this mess. Just had an argument with an economics major about the housing market. He basically said debt doesn’t matter. I basically told him to shut the fuck up and he’ll be wrong. I also reminded him of what Carney keeps repeating over and over.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

More news on the slump, this from CTV Victoria: 2012 Proving to Be Tough Year for Real Estate So Far

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1E0vkG6J1oo

stagnate
Guest
stagnate

fixie guy says: Decent’ on what scale?

the last number of years interest rates have responded to deflationary pressures. i’ll give the central bank some credit for that. the governments role in any sociological fallout is more appropriate to scrutinize.

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