Friday Free-for-all!

Yeah, that’s right.  It’s Friday and that means it’s time for another news round-up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Canada consumer debt up 3.4% in 1 year
It’s all about the resource economy
Another woah day in sales to list
New Inventory Graph: April will see 17k
Or will it be 18k?
Richmond at inventory crash levels
Can you combat off shore ownership?
Foreigners keep NY agents busy
Ain’t no bubble, chill out.
– Japan gives Canada advice on soft landing

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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rp1
Guest
rp1

@jumpin in: “3.8 billion in March and 9.2 billion yearly? There is something I do not understand. Please, help.”

The value of sales each year is heavily concentrated in the spring. A lot of homes usually sell in March/April/May. Take those out, and you don’t have much of a year.

Re-diculous
Member
Re-diculous

#167 Jumpin In
“Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 17 per cent to $9.2 billion….”
“Year to date” vs. “annual” is the answer

yvr2zrh
Member
#164 Makaya Thanks for the link. It looks similar to the same issue that Larry Y. has with his stats. You can’t really run queries on sales by date (with recent dates) because the time to post a sale is usually at least a week and can lag several weeks with really a few transacations taking months. Thus, if you say tell me the sales in the past 30 days – you will get all the transactions which closed in the past 30 days but not those that posted on MLS in the past 30 days. There is a function where you can request sales by posting date but it only goes back 2 weeks so are only accurate if you are tracking back and keeping your own stats. However – – the overall market is relatively accurate with the… Read more »
jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

From Larry:

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC declined 26.5 per cent to $3.8 billion in March compared to the same month last year. A total of 6,882 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded over the same period, a decline of 20 per cent. The average MLS® residential price was $545,959 in March, 8.1 per cent lower than in March 2011.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 17 per cent to $9.2 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 12.7 per cent to 16,724 units, while the average MLS® residential price edged back 5 per cent to $552,785 over the same period.

—————————–
3.8 billion in March and 9.2 billion yearly? There is something I do not understand. Please, help.

market stats
Guest
market stats

@fishyre’s numbers

Most of these moi’s are showing strain, but can attest that in NVan there are still buyers swarming around SFH’s. At one open yesterday there was basically a lineup to get in.

RippedtoShit
Guest
RippedtoShit

Listings will not SURGE higher until we get some rate increases or material tightening of mortgage credit.

Until then, the decline will be quiet, just lingering around the edges of the market.

The tsunami won’t hit for a while yet.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@zrh2yvr: those MOI were calculated with the numbers provided by Fish at this link. I’m not sure how he got them, but he said: “Last 30 days Active/Sold”

Here is the link to his blog:
http://fishyre.blogspot.ca/2012/04/sfh-stats.html

AG Sage
Member

@Anonymous: We found a solution for this when we rent long distance. We found the landlord’s linked-in profile and ask him to make an edit to it so we know they are the owner of the house. Of course in the U.S. we can see the tax rolls anywhere and can look up the owner of the house…

Laibach
Member
Laibach

@Manna from heaven:

If Canada does not stop foreign buying, or temporary resident buying, Canadian taxpayers and homeowners will pay an enormous, and potentially disastrous, price.

Unfortunately as history teaches us, enormous, and potentially disastrous, price doesn’t have to be payed always with money, especially when price is to high. Usually things then get sorted out on their own by turning one side against the other and then weapon and brute force talk. Then everyone looses all the way through…

crashcow
Member

High valuations
+ tapped out households
+ high MOI
+ looming inventory glut
+ hard stop on CMHC-insured mortgages
= the right ingredients for RE pancakes.

VHB
Member
VHB

Wow VW SFH seem to have broken out of the doldrums. Pretty much flat inventory around 800 since early February. But, in the last four days a jump from 832 to 872. Might just be a blip. This is from realitylink.org public MLS data.

The biggest I have ever seen VW SFH inventory was 1011 in October 2008. Prices got hit hard at that level of inventory.

yvr2zrh
Member

#146 Makaya

These stats are a bit off and likely have not had the right search parameters for the number of sales. For each MOI number listed, it is about 20-25% too high. I.e. – Richmond right now is tracking about 9 months and North Van is about 2.75.

Van – West may get to 7 by month end.

It is great to see such a well put together list however. If the Fraser Valley’s central areas such as Surrey and Langley start to show very poor numbers, this entire market is going to have a fairly difficult time staying inflated.

crashcow
Member

And follow that by this awesome post by Ben on ‘the end of easy credit’:

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/credit-tightening-and-end-canadian-housing-bubble

Key takeaway: total mortgage debt insured by CHMC exploded 225% over 2004-2011. In their latest corporate plan, CHMC is planning a mere 5% increase over 2012-2016.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Devore:

Agreed. Anybody paying a deposit for a place they’ve not seen, or has any proof that the landlord even owns, is a total moron. Scams abound on Craigslist, they should consider themselves lucky they got off relatively lightly.

crashcow
Member

Interesting statcan data on how mortgage debt has grown over the last 5 years:

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/pick-choisir?lang=eng&p2=33&id=3780050

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

@Manna from heaven:
It is already too late, sadly.

Devore
Member
Devore

@Best place on meth: Well, to be fair, that’s what you get for renting a place sight unseen, as at least 3 of those things would have been apparent on even a casual inspection, and any one would raise flags and steer me away. You need to put as much care into finding a place to rent as you do finding a house to buy, even more, because the landlord introduces additional factors.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@xyz:

What am I seeing out there?

Amateur landlords galore.

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2922590017.html

xyz
Guest
xyz

Lets talk about Renting.
There seems to be a lot of full houses out there for rent (at exorbitant pricing no less)
The majority of the ads include a bevy of pictures of un-occupied homes… Are we perhaps on the cusp of a Renters Market as well as a buyers market?

What are you guys seeing out there?

Manna from heaven
Guest
Manna from heaven

If Canada does not stop foreign buying, or temporary resident buying, Canadian taxpayers and homeowners will pay an enormous, and potentially disastrous, price.

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/04/13/to-tame-torontos-housing-bubble-ban-foreign-buying/

Manna from heaven
Guest
Manna from heaven

The Conservatives are also expected to at least double the cash that immigrant investors must inject into Canada, to $1.6-million from $800,000.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/entry-to-canada-to-cost-wealthy-foreigners-more/article2402440/

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

The new definition of REVENUE

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11755980&PidKey=60174473

Do they think buyers are stupid enough to not factor in interest rate increase, inflation, maintenance costs, property taxes, bad tenants, etc…

But may be there buyers around there that can be lured…

vreaa
Member

Reader Question – “What Percentage Of Residential RE Sales In The Lower Mainland Are CMHC Insured?”

Anybody with an answer to that question?
Please help:
http://wp.me/pcq1o-3Y5

vangrl
Member
vangrl

ooo-la-la my search criteria for west side apartments just surpassed the highest listing count that I’ve seen in the last 6 years or so.

the apartment that’s for sale in my building has been reduced by $10,000, and has been listed for about 2 months now, and (according to owner) has not even had one low ball offer on it.

times they are a changin’

Makaya
Member
Makaya

Last 30 days MOI (according to Fish’s numbers):

1) Maple Ridge: 14.47
2) Pitt Meadows: 4.08
3) Sunshine Coast: 19
4) Richmond: 12.38
5) Vancouver West: 7.95
6) West Vancouver: 7.33
7) Burnaby: 6.41
8) Squamish: 17.45
9)Port Moody: 9.46
10)Surrey: 9.93
11)Abbotsford: 15.24
12)Mission: 19.81
13)Cloverdale: 9.06
14)Langley: 8.65
15) North Van: 3.04
Van West Attached: 7.63
Richmond Attached: 10.48
Surrey Attached: 11.67