Friday Free-for-all!
It’s the end of another work week and that means it time for the free-for-all! This is our regular weekend news roundup and open topic discussion thread. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
-Tiptoeing towards sub-prime
-Get ready for more bidding wars!
-Carney hints at rate hikes
-Is Carney actually driving?
-Vancouver might get a new tower
-Want to RE blog for G&M?
-Higher learning in Whistler
-Translink puts on the brakes
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So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
April 20th, 2012 at 1:23 am 1
I am predicting a slow sales day on Sunday due to the hockey game on the tube.
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April 20th, 2012 at 5:41 am 2
@blueskies:
I am predicting a slow sales decade. This goose is cooked.
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April 20th, 2012 at 5:59 am 3
on a side note:
Yesterday there was a real estate
exam held at the Vancouver Convention Centre
……total of 400 newbie fresh virgins
soon to be sacrificed on the altar of REIC
commerce
the question in 2 years:
what were you thinking?
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April 20th, 2012 at 7:33 am 4
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/20/canadas-big-banks-flee-nonprime-market-amid-signs-of-housing-downturn/
Canada’s big banks flee nonprime market amid signs of housing downturn
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April 20th, 2012 at 8:55 am 5
classic rebuttal on a few comments regarding this article!
“SC_Guy
7:41 AM on 4/20/2012
@sinner69
6% is the ‘normal’…in what world? the ‘normal’ is more like 3-4% on the HIGH end. You can’t include the ridiculous rates of the 80′s, because that will never happen again. The central banks won’t allow it because the global economy couldn’t handle it. Take your fear mongering elsewhere…please.
@MikeD5
You too. The average drop was $90K? Don’t believe so, but even if it were, the average sale price was well north of $1M….so……..your point? All you bubble pushers are 1d10ts, plain and simple. Yes, there are many places in North America that have real estate bubbles, or real estate that moves on a boom-bust cycle. Vancouver is NOT one of them. What part of “they aren’t making any more land’ and ‘supply & demand’ don’t you get? Just because you have a menial (or union) job, and your prospects for increased earnings are nil (or tied to what your union can hold your company or the province hostage for), doesn’t mean houses are overpriced.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/mortgages/home+buyer+bonus+sure+spur+first+timers+mortgage+expert/6302642/story.html
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April 20th, 2012 at 9:06 am 6
@4 Mick Murphy: The author describes himself on his Twitter account as “Financial-services reporter at Bloomberg News in Toronto. Best dad ever. Amateur comedian.” An article about Canadian banks distancing themselves from sub-prime that doesn’t mention recent changes at the CMHC certainly supports the latter.
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April 20th, 2012 at 9:13 am 7
@fixie guy: “doesn’t mention recent changes at the CMHC certainly supports the latter”
Yes. And there is more to come.
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April 20th, 2012 at 10:42 am 8
I’m mostly in the camp that says we aren’t going to see a huge jump down in prices in the next few months in the absence of some kind of credit market or unemployment shock.
That said, VW SFH inventory is 884. Last time that hit 1000 the west side saw a 20% drop. So maybe that is just a local market thing, but I can’t see VW SFH prices holding up when there are 1000 of them on sale.
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April 20th, 2012 at 10:51 am 9
@VHB:
Agree, I don’t see a big dive in the near future.
Given how the byelections went, it’s intriguing to ponder the outcome of an NDP win next year. NDP-bashers notwithstanding, I don’t foresee a Bill Bennett-era bust, but it could well tip things to a Glen Clark-era slow decline. And we all know that if prices go down just 15% and stay there an awful lot of people in the city are going to be toast.
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April 20th, 2012 at 10:56 am 10
@VHB: Prices in Van West are not holding up. For example, I saw a price drop on 1406 West 40th Av this week that puts it $1.1m below what it was listed for last year, about $725K below what comparable properties were selling for last year, and about $350K below assessed value.
If the price drops another $1.1m from here, I might even consider putting in a low-ball offer.
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April 20th, 2012 at 11:04 am 11
@VHB: Price are already dropping. Have a look at this comment over on Vreaa’s blog. Someone is tracking automatically price changes in the lower mainland and his findings are very interesting. He has identified cases where asking prices have dropped by up to 40%.
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/04/19/borrow-to-get-ahead-people-are-notorious-for-looking-at-the-glass-half-full-or-pretending-things-arent-happening/#comment-34751
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April 20th, 2012 at 11:10 am 12
Tidbit of the day.
Greater Vancouver Average price down a lot this month. We should be 15% off the Feb peak by end of April in Detached.
VHB – re: the 884 units. See my post from a couple of days ago on VREAA. There are three markets in Van West- One is not selling at all, one is selling slow and one has no inventory and is moving very fast. Question is – what happens to homes over $3.0 million – Eventually they have to come down and that will move the prices.
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April 20th, 2012 at 11:30 am 13
@zrh2yvr: I think the new build market is overbought. These units were built because the plans were cheap, the permits are easy to shuttle through City Hall, and it’s easy to find construction labour and material supply chains who know how to build them quick and (relatively) cheap.
Of course these are not $3MM houses; almost anyone looking objectively can see that; now that the US is gaining popularity again, the difference between a Vancouver property and a California property likely leaves even the most nouveau of riche thinking twice before buying.
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April 20th, 2012 at 11:39 am 14
@patriotz:
VHB says “I’m mostly in the camp that says we aren’t going to see a huge jump down in prices in the next few months in the absence of some kind of credit market or unemployment shock.”
Nice to see you guys have finally come around to what I’ve been saying for a year.
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April 20th, 2012 at 11:46 am 15
@VHB:
“That said, VW SFH inventory is 884. Last time that hit 1000 the west side saw a 20% drop. So maybe that is just a local market thing, but I can’t see VW SFH prices holding up when there are 1000 of them on sale.”
Last time we saw 1000 inventory there were other factors in play that were scaring the pants off people.
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April 20th, 2012 at 11:57 am 16
@blueskies:
“the question in 2 years: what were you thinking?”
If they’re planning on being full-time realtors, I’d agree with you. But I’ve often considered the possibility of getting the training, because firstly it doesn’t seem like a big commitment or expensive, secondly because it means I could buy/sell with reduced commissions (because I was act as the agent), and thirdly it’d have an alternate means of generating income if I ever needed it.
Not sure if you have to pay some sort of annual membership fee to keep your license active, though. Does anybody know?
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April 20th, 2012 at 12:02 pm 17
@Anonymouse: “Last time we saw 1000 inventory there were other factors in play that were scaring the pants off people.”
Ah yes the old global financial meltdown angle. Inventory had been building for the entire year 2008 with relatively few words in the media about extreme distress in equity markets until September. I’m having a hard time with the causality.
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April 20th, 2012 at 12:09 pm 18
“Last time we saw 1000 inventory there were other factors in play that were scaring the pants off people.”
and somehow you think global economy is in better shape then in 2008?
next time CB will not have even have the luxury of trillions dollars in stimulas.
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April 20th, 2012 at 12:09 pm 19
Developers finance C. Clark’s campaign.
Her government offers tax rebates for buyers of new properties.
How is this different from CORRUPTION?
I cannot wait to see her out.
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April 20th, 2012 at 12:24 pm 20
8 VHB Says: “…. we aren’t going to see a huge jump down in prices in the next few months in the absence of some kind of credit market or unemployment shock.”
That almost implies prices are somehow justified. It wasn’t one event ballooning the market and it won’t take one large shock to return it to normal. The fed is rolling back all the little – many nearly invisible, no surprise – policies that inflated the supply of credit available to the housing market. Banks are already backing away. Many pricks will be deflating this balloon.
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April 20th, 2012 at 12:27 pm 21
@jumpin in: I disagree with the tax credit too, but if it makes you feel any better, there are parts of the province that are hurting bad in terms of new construction sales and arguably they need a boost of some sort. It’s not all fine and dandy out there…
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April 20th, 2012 at 12:31 pm 22
@blueskies:
“Yesterday there was a real estate
exam held at the Vancouver Convention Centre”
Ahhh…..that explains it. I was in the neighbourhood and was sure I smelt crayons.
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April 20th, 2012 at 12:31 pm 23
@fixie guy: “Banks are already backing away”
I think a better way of putting the argument about how a shock is required to send the market lower is that a credit event is a certainty, not a possibility. Prices are simply too high for the incomes; credit is inevitably pulled when prices fail to rise enough to cover the bad debt.
Australia is just finding this out.
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April 20th, 2012 at 12:43 pm 24
@jesse:
“there are parts of the province that are hurting bad in terms of new construction sales and arguably they need a boost of some sort.”
How about… lower prices! So more people can afford to buy?
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April 20th, 2012 at 12:46 pm 25
@fixie guy:
“Many pricks will be deflating this balloon.”
And a lot more pricks will be deflated.
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April 20th, 2012 at 1:08 pm 26
The end is near. No bubble shell exist.
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April 20th, 2012 at 1:12 pm 27
@23 jesse: Calling it a ‘credit event’ draws false parallels with the American experience. In 2008 the revelation that assets backing all financial markets – not just housing – were poisoned by submerged risky loans caused credit to evaporate in an instant. The value of the backing assets became unclear. Healthy, completely unrelated industries were in danger of losing the daily liquidity needed to operate. That’s a real Event.
No such thing will happen here, the CMHC already backs those risky assets. The risk they contain is effectively out of the system, Canada is post-TARP. The only credit market that will dry up is the housing credit market, and only because the federal government is backing away slowly from the printing presses.
It doesn’t take Black Sheep for banks to stop granting mortgages.
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April 20th, 2012 at 1:32 pm 28
@blueskies:
“Yesterday there was a real estate
exam held at the Vancouver Convention Centre”
Let’s hope they didn’t have difficulty completing the toughest portion of the exam – the urine test.
Nail that part and it’s smooth sailing the rest of the way.
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April 20th, 2012 at 1:37 pm 29
VHB says “I’m mostly in the camp that says we aren’t going to see a huge jump down in prices in the next few months in the absence of some kind of credit market or unemployment shock.”
Patriotz says “Agree, I don’t see a big dive in the near future.”
This is a REALLY big shift for perma-bears Patriotz and VHB, about 1 year behind Garth’s shift. Nice to see you’ve come around to the more sensible balanced view.
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April 20th, 2012 at 1:38 pm 30
The tax credit is a terrible idea. This creates temporary jobs building houses. The better way is to stimulate true value producing activities in these areas, create real long term jobs. People will move to these areas or at least stay in these areas, jobs will be available, house prices will moderate (making the cost of living there more reasonable, and a better fit with the $$ value the area generates).
Instead you get artificially maintained higher house prices, fewer high value long term jobs, and a temporary solution.
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April 20th, 2012 at 2:02 pm 31
There are more and more people over at the Chinese forums reporting price drops in their neighborhoods (be it Richmond condos or Coquitlam SFHs). More people are voicing their skepticism that Vancouver RE market will continue to go up. Many already accept the view that Van RE price will decline at least a couple % this year.
People are noticing the glut of thousands of upcoming Richmond condo units, and are advising against buying at this time. A few people are saying their close/trustworthy Chinese Realtor friends are saying the RE market isn’t looking good; however the other Realtors (whom they’re not close to) are still trying to paint a rosy picture.
Sentiment is changing, even among the HAM.
They say housing is the most emotional of all assets.
Perhaps declining investor sentiment alone will bring on the downturn, even before hard credit events, massive job losses, or CMHC/OSFI rules kick in.
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April 20th, 2012 at 2:07 pm 32
@fixie guy:
“Many pricks will be deflating this balloon.”
It took many pricks to inflate it.
I’m sure there’s an ancient Chinese proverb in there somewhere.
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April 20th, 2012 at 2:08 pm 33
@jumpin in: It’s not corruption because the money is used for democratic purposes also known as an election. If the money went directly into her pocket then yes that would be corruption. But as long as the money is spend on political campaign then it’s not consider corruption. Does this mean politicians aren’t influence by their donors and places higher priority on donors interests? No, off course not. But as far as I know by Western democracy standards, this is not corruption.
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April 20th, 2012 at 2:15 pm 34
@space889:
It is corruption.
Developers are buying influence, she’s selling it.
That’s corruption.
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April 20th, 2012 at 2:54 pm 35
@space889: To what extent does money from corporate interests constitute corruption? That is a thorny question.
On one side, people argue that it is business as usual in western democracy.
On the other side, people argue that it indicates a gradual slide from democracy into kleptocracy and corporatism.
Some recent radio shows about lobbying in the US:
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/04/19/150904641/why-lobbyists-dodge-calls-from-congressmen
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/04/20/150984304/when-lobbyists-pay-to-meet-with-congressmen
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April 20th, 2012 at 3:05 pm 36
Richmond Detached (homes) Inventory
9/30/2008 = 1012
4/20/2012 = 1021
Richmond at record high and its only April!
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April 20th, 2012 at 3:14 pm 37
@bike:
“and somehow you think global economy is in better shape then in 2008?”
No, but the public’s perception of it is generally based on the media – and they’re not reporting doom and gloom like they were in 2008 (yet).
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April 20th, 2012 at 3:25 pm 38
@jesse:
“Ah yes the old global financial meltdown angle. Inventory had been building for the entire year 2008 with relatively few words in the media about extreme distress in equity markets until September”
Condo developments had started going into receivership in late 2007 and early 2008 :
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/BritishColumbiaHome/20080228/BC_presale_condo_080228/
The media didn’t have to be discussing distress in equity markets, because the distress was already clearly visible in Vancouver housing.
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April 20th, 2012 at 3:26 pm 39
Anonymouse Says
“No, but the public’s perception of it is generally based on the media – and they’re not reporting doom and gloom like they were in 2008 (yet)”
I hear you….but public perception cannot fill empty stomachs.. in the long run
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April 20th, 2012 at 3:38 pm 40
@VHB:
Changes to the credit markets are already under way, how long before the market starts to buckle is still anyone’s guess though.
http://theeconomicanalyst.com/content/credit-tightening-and-end-canadian-housing-bubble
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April 20th, 2012 at 3:41 pm 41
@bike:
The media (I mean the mass media, not business publications) didn’t start reporting doom and gloom until fall 2008, by which time Vancouver had already dropped about 10%.
Also Calgary and Edmonton started falling in summer 2007 (a year before oil prices peaked) and were down 20% by fall 2008.
The idea that you need a negative economic outlook for RE prices to start falling is simply at odds with the facts.
Oh yeah, RE prices in the US started falling in 2006 when everyone thought that things were just fine. As if that needed mentioning.
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April 20th, 2012 at 4:09 pm 42
@Anonymouse: ” the distress was already clearly visible in Vancouver housing.”
You mean some marginal developers couldn’t get financing along with every other marginal developer in North America at the time. That’s neither here nor there. All types of properties started piling up for sale as sales failed to materialize in the spring.
I have little doubt lack of access to financing was a leading contributor. It would be inconceivable if such conditions occurred again any time soon.
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April 20th, 2012 at 4:19 pm 43
just got an email from the telus garden people. turns out the development isn’t sold out. pay particular attention to the “Limited Release” section.
Thank You Vancouver!
TELUS Garden Celebration Event
Dear XXXX,
Congratulations on registering your TELUS Garden T-shirt PIN! The response has been overwhelming, and we’re thrilled to have seen so many TELUS Garden T-shirts around the community.
TELUS Garden is the most talked-about development in Vancouver’s recent history, no small part thanks to you! Due to the overwhelming response and number of entries we’ve received, we are having a party!
Mark Your Calendar
Saturday April 28, Noon-5pm
Saturday April 28 we will once again become the talk of the town as we celebrate! Our doors will be open Noon-5pm at the TELUS Garden Discovery Atrium located at 768 Seymour Street.
We will release all the details early next week, but you will be in for an afternoon full of incredible prizes and delectable treats. Trust us – you won’t want to miss out! Please click here to RSVP.
Limited Release
After one of the most successful launches in recent history, we are proud to say that TELUS Garden has become the most sought-after development in Vancouver.
We have select two and three bedroom homes available for purchase Saturday April 28 only. We encourage you to contact us as soon as possible if you are interested. Please call 604.695.6800 or email nexus@telusgarden.com to speak to a TELUS Garden New Home Consultant.
Warm regards,
Warm regards,
TELUS Garden team
604.695.6800
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April 20th, 2012 at 4:28 pm 44
@jesse:
According to the Apr 4th news, it appears Canadian banks already tightened lending (at least against developers) ..? At least according to the condo builders ; )
“[Condo market cooled by tighter lending, Flaherty says]
The minister says condo builders are telling him the market is moderating because banks are bringing in more stringent rules for loans for developments. ”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/04/04/flaherty-condo-market.html
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April 20th, 2012 at 4:30 pm 45
@Anonymouse:
The financial crisis of 2008 was the best thing that could have ever happened to Vancouver RE.
Otherwise it would have had its back broken by Carney long ago, just like Bernanke did in the US.
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April 20th, 2012 at 4:32 pm 46
@Mick Murphy:
I’m constantly amazed at how stupid people are sometimes. I really don’t get how people lap up these “false scarcity” marketing tactics so easily when they’re so frikkin obvious.
Frankly, they deserve to lose their shirts when they eventually try to flip and discover that their “investment” is worth 30% less then the original contract price.
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April 20th, 2012 at 4:42 pm 47
@VMD @work:
““[Condo market cooled by tighter lending, Flaherty says]
The minister says condo builders are telling him the market is moderating because banks are bringing in more stringent rules for loans for developments. ”
The free market at work. The banks hold the bag on loans to developers, not the taxpayers.
But Flaherty’s conclusion doesn’t make sense. If developers are able to start fewer projects, that reduces supply and in itself should support higher sale prices.
Which means that if condo prices are falling it’s because the buyers are having trouble borrowing.
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April 20th, 2012 at 5:54 pm 48
@patriotz: “If developers are able to start fewer projects, that reduces supply and in itself should support higher sale prices. Which means that if condo prices are falling it’s because the buyers are having trouble borrowing.”
Either that, or Toronto condos are currently a Giffen good.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good
Most likely both explanation are partially correct.
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April 20th, 2012 at 6:23 pm 49
New Listings 238
Price Changes 131
Sold Listings 85
TI:17137
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
paulboenisch@gmail.com
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April 20th, 2012 at 6:25 pm 50
They keep pumping:
“Interest in home buying remains strong in Vancouver,
BY PETER SIMPSON, SPECIAL TO THE SUN” Vancouver Sun
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Interest+home+buying+remains+strong+Vancouver/6492093/story.html#ixzz1sdLeXUXf
“Over time, owning a home is a sound investment, despite the expected peaks and valleys. My first house cost me $38,500. And ask longtime homeowners in, say, East Vancouver, White Rock or Steveston if they are happy they purchased a home when they did. I’m betting on the affirmative.”
“Peter Simpson is the president and chief executive officer of the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association. Email peter@gvhba.org”
Yes, we all know buying before 2003 would make us happy. How is that relevant to buying in 2012?
“Special to the Sun” Wonder what it takes to be ” Special to the Sun”
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April 20th, 2012 at 6:34 pm 51
Wow, check out those spring market numbers from Paul B. All is not well folks!
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April 20th, 2012 at 6:35 pm 52
@Eddie: must be yardwork time!
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April 20th, 2012 at 6:42 pm 53
A bit of stretchy to get to 18k by the end of April but not entirely impossible.
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April 20th, 2012 at 6:51 pm 54
@paulb.: +112 from yesterday… I like it!
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April 20th, 2012 at 9:24 pm 55
Apr-2012
Total days 19
Days elapsed so far 13
Weekends / holidays 7
Days missing 0
Days remaining 6
7 Day Moving Average: Sales 140
7 Day Moving Average: Listings 282
SALES
Sales so far 1927
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 840
Projected month end total 2767 +/- 210
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 4200
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1693
Projected month end total 5893 +/- 231
Sell-list so far 45.9%
Projected month-end sell-list 47.0%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of April 20, 2012 17137
MoI at this sales pace 6.19
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April 20th, 2012 at 9:25 pm 56
Here are the April averages.
April
sell list sell/list
2001 2253 3556 63.4%
2002 3785 5215 72.6%
2003 3095 4139 74.8%
2004 4106 5665 72.5%
2005 4043 5731 70.5%
2006 3345 4452 75.1%
2007 3490 5724 61.0%
2008 3218 7010 45.9%
2009 2963 4649 63.7%
2010 3512 7648 45.9%
2011 3225 5847 55.2%
Mean 3367 5421 62.1%
median 3345 5665 67.1%
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April 20th, 2012 at 9:34 pm 57
Interesting:
” Que. immigrant program funnels rich newcomers to B.C.: Kenney” from Van Sun.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/immigrant+program+funnels+rich+newcomers+Kenney/6494718/story.html#ixzz1se7MGMvq
“Nine out of 10 wealthy immigrants accepted into Quebec’s investor immigrant program never come to Quebec, federal Immigration Minister Jason Kenney said Friday.
“People in Vancouver are always asking me why are we facilitating this because it is leading to inflation of real estate prices. Which is great if you are well-established and you have paid down your mortgage. But if you are a young family starting out, good luck being able to afford a house in Vancouver. A lot of people who aren’t rooted in Vancouver are inflating the costs.”
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April 20th, 2012 at 9:34 pm 58
#50, southseacompany, thanks for the alert. Particualry sickening, no? As usual, I left a comment. I share it here not because it’s anything beyond my usual message, but because I’m frankly getting tired of media outlets deleting my (somewhat repetetive) prose:
No wonder people don’t subscribe to newspapers anymore. This sort of deception was merely annoying a few years ago, but now that the local real estate ponzi scheme is wide open for all to see, now that Vancouver has attained the rank of most overpriced city on earth, now that Canadian per capita debt loads are past the breaking point, now that everyone stupid enough to buy has already done so, and now that prices are dropping and inventory gowing even in former bubble hot spots like Richmond, it’s far beyond annoying. It’s borderline criminal. Throwing this garbage into print as if it’s newsworthy when it’s just one more shyster trying to extract his pound of flesh before the total collapse of this market is nothing but nauseating.
Vancouver Sun: Have you no shame? Have you no guilt? Have you no conscience?
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April 20th, 2012 at 10:13 pm 59
This is probably my favourite Peter Schiff speech. He covers the stock bubble, the housing bubble, etc. Good stories at 10 minutes in: “why should it go up? it doesn’t even make any money! who would buy it?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgMclXX5msc
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April 20th, 2012 at 10:14 pm 60
Hi VHB, You can put your formated text inside <pre> and </pre> See the following example
<pre>
formated text
/pre>
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April 20th, 2012 at 10:15 pm 61
Hi VHB, You put your formated text inside <pre> and </pre> See this following example
<pre>
formated text
</pre>
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April 20th, 2012 at 10:30 pm 62
Copied from PaulB’s number
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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April 20th, 2012 at 10:34 pm 63
Expected sales are the second worst in 10 years (2963 in 2009).
Expected listings are the third highest in 10 years (2008:7010 2010:7648)
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April 20th, 2012 at 10:54 pm 64
just sold my place! now I am with you guys and cant wait for the burst of the bubble. 30% at least so i can buy a bigger place.
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April 20th, 2012 at 10:54 pm 65
i remain disappointed the MOI has yet to cross TEN.
That is the magic marker point my friends and enemies.
Even McLovin barely warms up on a Saturday night till he’s past his tenth….At $20 a pop, that adds up…poor fella…it’s a dirty business.
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April 21st, 2012 at 6:51 am 66
@57 Apocarypse Mao Says: “ine out of 10 wealthy immigrants accepted into Quebec’s investor immigrant program never come to Quebec, federal Immigration Minister Jason Kenney said Friday.”
An legal email newsletter I received recently described how Quebec is working with the fed to vastly open up and accelerate their ‘provincial immigration program’. It’s a perfect example of the clever bits and pieces approach I see this this federal government using to achieve their hidden agendas. Who investigates alterations in eastern provincial immigration programs (a disturbing concept on its own) for clues about housing?
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April 21st, 2012 at 7:36 am 67
Stats:
#55 VHB v. #62 PaulB in Good Format.
I am tracking stats which are more consistent with #55. So – the sales are at the lower level of approx 1920 for 13 days and listings are closer to 4200. Not sure what the difference is.
It is now looking like we will have April be less than March and March was terrible. Also – April has had slowing sales in the last part of the month compared to the first part.
We are also seeing the Avg. price come back down to the pre “blip” levels we saw in the February increase.
Other unusual items.
Vancouver East Attached market has had a marked increase. Not sure if it has to do with new projects coming out for resale after completion. Anyone have any insight why the sudden jump in Van-East numbers?
Van West Detached coming to a halt. We may come under the 2008 sales number of 121 for the month.
Richmond continues to struggle along with over 9 months of inventory and approx run rate of 110 sales per month.
Richmond inventory exceeded 1000 and Van West exceeded 900. Can anyone confirm that Van-West exceeded 1000 in the 2008 period?
If 6 months is the point where it is firmly a buyers market, the following are in Buyers Market
Van West Detached
Richmond Detached
Richmond Attached
West Vancouver Detached
South Surrey Detached
Abbotsford and Mission (As it has been for months).
If Sellers market is under 4 months the following are tight markets
Vancouver East Attached
North Vancouver Detached (tightest market over past year)
Notable Changes
Burnaby has had strong slow down and is now at 5 months.
REBGV – This market will possibly hit 6 months inventory overall by end of month. This is pretty early in the year to have such a stat as this is the peak buying season.
FVREB – This market is now quite slow as well with April falling below march driven by slow attached sales.
Other than the Van-East attached market, there are no stats right now that are trending positive.
Have a great weekend all!!!
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April 21st, 2012 at 8:26 am 68
@Apocarypse Mao:
“People in Vancouver are always asking me why are we facilitating this because it is leading to inflation of real estate prices. Which is great if you are well-established and you have paid down your mortgage. But if you are a young family starting out, good luck being able to afford a house in Vancouver. A lot of people who aren’t rooted in Vancouver are inflating the costs.”
Nonsense. Clearly Kenney is just a racist.
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April 21st, 2012 at 8:41 am 69
@UnagiDon: ” Clearly Kenney is just a racist.”
LOL, next thing he’ll say that immigrants should have proficiency in either English or French. Wait what, he did?
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April 21st, 2012 at 8:46 am 70
@Apocarypse Mao:
Wow, Kenney is busy:
Immigration Minister Jason Kenney said Friday the federal government is in the process of revoking the citizenship of 2,300 people, with at least 6,000 more cases under investigation.
He said a two-year investigation by the RCMP identified at least 8,800 cases of alleged residency fraud.
“Thousands of people were using crooked immigration consultants to create fake proof of residency in Canada. When we find several thousand people who have broken the law, it is pretty widespread.”
Read more: http://www.timescolonist.com/Kenney+Thousands+will+citizenship+revoked/6497116/story.html#ixzz1sgqCo4IV
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April 21st, 2012 at 9:13 am 71
@UnagiDon:
“Clearly Kenney is just a racist.”
No, just an opportunist who is blaming immigrants for inflated prices when it is his own government that deliberately inflated them in Vancouver and everywhere else in Canada.
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April 21st, 2012 at 9:23 am 72
WOW are Canadians ever getting taken for a ride.. bit embarrassing really.
Feel a bit sick that my hard earned tax dollars are going towards this:
“B.C. will get the social services costs for health care and everything else for the dependents who have been brought to Vancouver.”
http://www.montrealgazette.com/immigrant+program+funnels+rich+newcomers+Kenney/6494718/story.html#ixzz1se7MGMvq
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April 21st, 2012 at 9:27 am 73
I was in a washroom in South Surrey yesterday and overheard the following conversation between a 50 something lawyer and another fellow:
Lawyer : “Well, the Real Estate market has not been exactly robust”
Other guy “Really? I thought it was crazy”
Lawyer: “No. Actually is has been slow for many months and I think it will get a lot slower. There are lots of lawyers who are making a living on real estate convayencing who are scrambling”
Lawyer before guy could answer :”I am actually working on importing a new green tea energy drink from China”
A smile crossed my face as I walked out.
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April 21st, 2012 at 9:35 am 74
Good for Kenny for at least looking at the problem and acknowledging our immigration program is a joke.
I love how they article used the term “flip” to refer the Chinese immigrants going from Quebec to Vancouver.
That’s a flip gone bad for Vancouverites and taxpayers if there ever was one!
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April 21st, 2012 at 9:39 am 75
@McLovin:
As if his government took office last month, instead of six years ago.
And he also complains about immigrants working abroad and not paying taxes while the family works in Canada. Well why the hell hasn’t his government done anything about it?
This is a classic Conservative strategy – all talk and no action, and blaming others for problems which the government has had the power to fix in the first place.
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April 21st, 2012 at 9:47 am 76
Patriotz: Fair comments but what other Gov’t has dared even speak about immigration?
It was the Liberals that created the whole mess. They were the ones that starting buying ethic votes for increased immigration levels in the Chinese and South Asia communities.
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April 21st, 2012 at 9:48 am 77
Will interest rate hikes cause a correction?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/are-home-prices-headed-for-correction-after-rates-rise/article2409105/
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April 21st, 2012 at 10:01 am 78
This is the script as I seeing it playing out.
Crusty and Libs get kicked out in BC. Conservatives lose their majority in the next election. All this happens as the huge RE bubble bursts and causes the same economic havoc that it did in the US.
They will then turn around and shamelessly blame their successors as having caused the bust by not being sufficiently ‘market friendly’ or ‘pro-busienss’ even though they are the very shysters that caused the bubble.
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April 21st, 2012 at 10:05 am 79
@McLovin:
Mclovin, the Liberals were last in power in over 6 years ago. How long do they have to be blamed for things?
There is no problem with where people come from – for two hundreds years it was Europe- now it is other countries. The problem is WHO we are letting in from those countries. We basically sell entry.
What we need is young go-getters who will help pay for our huge baby-boomer related costs not HAM.
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April 21st, 2012 at 10:13 am 80
Vancouver Y/Y Change in Average House Price
https://twitter.com/#!/BenRabidoux/status/193420810520756224/photo/1/large
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April 21st, 2012 at 11:19 am 81
@Patiently Waiting:
So the government has uncovered 8,800 people who desperately wanted a Canadian passport but had such little interest in Canada’s culture, values, etc that they couldn’t be bothered to actually live here the bare minimum time required to become a citizen.
And what is that minimum amount of time? Three years.
Now consider the much larger group of so-called “immigrants” with a similar lack of interest in Canada, but who were nonetheless able to endure it long enough to get their citizenship. For every one of the 8,800 who faked their residency for three years, there are a hundred more who followed the letter of the law and managed to endure the rain and snow for three years and get their cherished passports legally. And then they promptly went back to China, Iran, Russia, etc with their Canadian Insurance Policies in hand.
These “new Canadians” obtained their passports 100% legally, but they have just as much interest in living here as the ones who got caught faking their 3-year residency requirements. That’s the real problem with our broken system, and I don’t hear anyone on government doing anything about it.
I am not an anti-immigrant. I just happen to believe the quaint notion that immigrants to our country should actually become part of this country. That means actually living here (the whole family – not just the wife and kids), as well as working here, paying taxes here, etc. Maybe it’s just me.
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April 21st, 2012 at 11:45 am 82
“Carney warns of potential housing market trouble” CBC today.
Audio interview with Evan Solomon included.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/04/21/pol-the-house-mark-carney.html
“According to him, there are a number of defences to protect against a housing bubble.”
“Prevent a housing bubble”? This seems like a euphemism for ‘prevent a housing crash’.
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April 21st, 2012 at 12:11 pm 83
@southseacompany: After slamming interest rates to the floor to keep the bubble from bursting, Carney names his top 2 defenses going forward..
“First and foremost, it’s the decisions of the individuals who take out the loans, and Canadians are a smart and prudent people”
“[Second] the banks and institutions must make some wise decisions and not lend to people who clearly can’t pay the money back”
we’re fucked.
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April 21st, 2012 at 1:28 pm 84
should I sell my condo now, or is it too late?
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April 21st, 2012 at 1:45 pm 85
March ’12 Months of Inventory calculations for each of BCREA’s sales regions. MOI from one year ago is shown in brackets for comparison.
BC Northern
Inventory: 2258
Sales: 357
MOI: 6.3 (7.3)
Chilliwack
Inventory: 1674
Sales: 200
MOI: 8.4 (8.5)
Fraser Valley
Inventory: 7995
Sales: 1320
MOI: 6.1 (4.4)
Greater Vancouver
Inventory: 16226
Sales: 2919
MOI: 5.6 (3.4)
Kamloops
Inventory: 1978
Sales: 200
MOI: 9.9 (9.9)
Kootenay
Inventory: 2761
Sales: 143
MOI: 19.3 (19.3)
Okanagan Mainline
Inventory: 5744
Sales: 473
MOI: 12.1 (12.6)
Powell River
Inventory: 248
Sales: 26
MOI: 9.5 (8.2)
South Okanagan
Inventory: 1731
Sales: 109
MOI: 15.9 (18.8)
Northern Lights
Inventory: 214
Sales: 44
MOI: 4.9 (4.8)
Vancouver Island
Inventory: 5753
Sales: 548
MOI: 10.5 (9.0)
Victoria
Inventory: 3392
Sales: 543
MOI: 6.2 (5.4)
Provincial Totals
Inventory: 49974
Sales: 6882
MOI: 7.3 (5.5)
While the World Outside Of Vancouver (WOOV ™) saw generally stable (but high) MOI numbers year over year, large jumps occurred in the lower mainland. The Fraser Valley saw MOI rise from 4.4 to 6.1 (+39%) while Vancouver jumped from 3.4 to 5.6 (+65%) over the last twelve months. Perhaps not yet panic-inducing, but this is supposed to be peak buying season, which doesn’t bode well for anyone who bought a 700k Yaletown condo in the last 3 months.
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April 21st, 2012 at 2:22 pm 86
@patriotz:
It makes perfect sense. It means the banks know prices will likely fall and people will default on the presale agreements so they will not lend on the project. The market is predicting a correction.
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April 21st, 2012 at 2:33 pm 87
@vangrl:
Mainland ‘locusts’ are global contagion.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9164982/Hong-Kong-election-mainland-locusts-fuel-former-colonys-anger-with-the-Chinese-motherland.html
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April 21st, 2012 at 2:42 pm 88
@Anonymous:
You conclusion is correct. But Flaherty and the developers have cause and effect reversed – they are blaming the lack of financing for projects for the falloff in demand to buy the condos, which makes no sense as I said.
They are trying to blame an external cause for the weakness in the market. I told you this was coming. They will try to find anything to blame for the bust but the excessive prices themselves.
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April 21st, 2012 at 4:15 pm 89
@ anonymous
should I sell my condo now, or is it too late?
It is too late to sell at the peak, but since things can only get worse, it is still early
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April 21st, 2012 at 4:48 pm 90
What’s ‘nonprime’? Is that close or distant relative of ‘subprime’?
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April 21st, 2012 at 6:33 pm 91
“non-prime” is the Canadian word for “subprime”
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April 21st, 2012 at 6:34 pm 92
While at the corner store, saw a funny ad on the monitor above the checkout. One of the non stop real estate ads had a RE agent who advertised the fact that he had a PhD! How flipping distorted is the economy in this town when a PhD educated guy abondons that considerable education investment (8 years or so), takes the 5 week RE course, and pursues the “noble” RE profession? Sad part is, he probably made more money flogging RE than applying education.
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April 21st, 2012 at 6:43 pm 93
@Numbers Guy: you should have a look at the Sunshine Coast numbers too… pretty terrible.
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April 21st, 2012 at 7:28 pm 94
“non-prime” is the Canadian word for “subprime
NONSENSE!
We have been told by every institution, governing body and Realtard that we are different because we don’t have a subprime market.
Are you saying they are lying?
When a person working at Starbucks can get a mortgage for $400K (CMHC insured of course so the bank has no risk) we have a subprime market.
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April 21st, 2012 at 7:55 pm 95
@Re-diculous: He’s not the only one. /dev/null pointed out Gina Rossi the other day:
http://www.ginarossi.ca/blog2/2009/1/1/some-personal-info-about-me-gina-rossi.html
Local realtor with a PhD in molecular biology and cancer research from UBC medical school.
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April 21st, 2012 at 8:46 pm 96
Canada’s big banks flee nonprime market amid signs of housing downturn
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April 21st, 2012 at 8:55 pm 97
The fall of a billion-dollar realtor
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April 21st, 2012 at 9:05 pm 98
Uh oh…first HL already posted. So here it is again.
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April 21st, 2012 at 9:29 pm 99
Next time someone tells you there is no SUBRIME in Canada, PLZ punch them in the teeth for being ignorant or lying straight to you face.
True Story:
A friend of mine, a small business owner who reports annual income of about $20000 (not true income) from his business received a $550.000 INTEREST ONLY MORTGAGE in 2007 and bought a house in Westwood Plateau Coquitlam. Fast forward 5 years later, HE STILL HAS INTEREST ONLY mortgage at variable 2.00% rate, he can barely keep up with payments, he has 5 credit cards all maxed out, and 6 month ago he asked me to borrow some money.
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April 21st, 2012 at 10:00 pm 100
@SunBlaster:
How true is it?
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April 21st, 2012 at 10:04 pm 101
Victoria and Vancouver lead the way down the sewer.
Chinese will leave by the planeload, hitting the bid all the way down.
Tears, that is how it always ends.
Will they never learn?
SM
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April 21st, 2012 at 10:48 pm 102
The perils of setting up a home …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhiG6_83pbc
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April 21st, 2012 at 11:42 pm 103
The 10 year bond yield is stuck at 2%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/government-bond-yield
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April 22nd, 2012 at 12:14 am 104
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/58937/neville-bennett-worried-major-housing-bubble-canada-may-cause-international-distress
Neville Bennett is worried a major housing bubble in Canada may cause international distress
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April 22nd, 2012 at 12:27 am 105
I was surprised that the trulia winter 2012 rent to buy index showed that it is better to buy than rent a house in US. I would like to see the same graphics for Canada. Do you think that we have more favorable environment for renting? I´m not sure, To Buy or Not to Buy? says that “88 per cent of Canadians claim that housing is a good investment”. I´d love to see those 88% since everyone I know is skeptic about the housing market right now…
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April 22nd, 2012 at 12:32 am 106
@good-format: Hi, thanks. I never remember the html tag for that.
BTW, you might check your spreadsheet. When I add up your April sales number I get a different number than you have for total. I get 1927; you say 2182. I added up the numbers in your post for sales each day and I still get 1927.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 1:26 am 107
@John B.: “I was surprised that the trulia winter 2012 rent to buy index showed that it is better to buy than rent a house in US.”
Maybe not everywhere, but in many places it is. That doesn’t necessarily mean a bottom in prices though. Nobody ever said investing was risk free.
But US prices are close to half of Canada’s, incomes and rents are comparable, and you can get a 30 year mortgage for 4%. Renters are paying a premium for mobility. There is a reasonable case to consider investment.
Media reports say many young people don’t want to own houses. It’s possible that there have been some structural changes in the US economy, but your central thesis should never be “it’s different now”. Who doesn’t want a nice house? I think the big risk is in factors like this:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapril12/wages-consumption4-12.html
If you’re an investor in the US today, you will be paid to take that risk. Compare that to the Canadian market where mortgages are higher than rents. In Canada you pay a premium AND take the risk that a highly overvalued, overleveraged market will return to the mean. What’s that about “throwing your money away?”
US houses are fairly valued. Not the deal of the century, but you can buy one and it probably won’t blow your limbs off. Maybe it goes nowhere for a very long time. At least you have income.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 3:01 am 108
@John B.:
“88 per cent of Canadians claim that housing is a good investment”
If you have been following this statistic, the more expensive housing gets the more people think it is a good investment. You get the converse effect on the way down, e.g. in the US as prices have gone down the fewer people think it is a good investment.
This is the “logic” of the idiot who thinks that the only thing that matters is what you can sell the house for and who thinks that the current price trend will continue indefinitely.
Of course in actual fact the more expensive a house is the worse an investment it is and the cheaper a house is the better an investment it is. Buy low, sell high and all that.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 5:18 am 109
@Smoking Man: what a story from the moon.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 9:30 am 110
Copied from PaulB’s number
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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April 22nd, 2012 at 9:31 am 111
Thank VHB to point out my mistake. The old numbers include the last 2 days of Match
Sorry for misleading info
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April 22nd, 2012 at 9:36 am 112
The expected sales number 2,767 is the lowest in 10 years.
Storm is coming!
Plus the official sales number will be lower owing to collapsed sales.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 10:05 am 113
facebook stalking a mortgage broker that comments on Rob Carrick’s wall:)
“If your aim is to own a home, not buy an investment & you’re in it for the long haul & you can afford the mortgage, Guess what, It’s a GREAT time to BUY
“When you say “I can’t afford it” you’ll prove yourself right every time. But when you ask “How can I afford it?” your mind starts the search for possible solutions. Let me show you how you can afford it…”
“Just reading through a release by the Office of The Superintendent of Financial Institutions. How can they even consider re-calculating LTV ratios at renewal. #Fail”
“I’m confused, I remember in 2000 they said real estate prices were too high, they said the same thing again in 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010 and now 2012. Last time I looked, there’s new construction on every street.”
“”I’ll huff and I’ll puff till I blow house prices down” #Flaherty”
“Hey #Flaherty, I’m curious, why would u restrict good debt but not bad debt like credit cards etc? As usual, shoot & ask questions later”
and then this:
“Looking at a Shaughnessy Listing on BALFOUR Avenue, On the market 196 days, listed in July of last year for $6.8mill currently reduced to $4.9mill. Wow, is there a problem? or?”
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April 22nd, 2012 at 10:30 am 114
@McLovin: When a person working at Starbucks can get a mortgage for $400K (CMHC insured of course so the bank has no risk) we have a subprime market.
You can label it what you want. Based on Canadian lending criteria the person working at Starbucks is ‘prime’. Subprime doesn’t have a job and is in federal prison. Using these standards there is very little subprime lending in Canada.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 11:31 am 115
Hello all, anyone with access to MLSX or whatever it’s called, could you help me out?
I’m wondering what the last sold price and date was for the following: MLS®: V944683
If my memory serves me, that house was listed at over $800k a couple years back, now listed at $699k.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 12:31 pm 116
june 2008 listed for $599,000
http://www.ryanproperties.ca/PROPERTIES.php/Details/176
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April 22nd, 2012 at 12:59 pm 117
OK, that’s it for today, I’m having a gin and tonic with extra lime while I read my book on the balcony.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 2:06 pm 118
question #4 on the reals estate board exam:
On the supplied piece of paper using the supplied
RED crayon draw an arrow pointing in the UP direction
this is valued at 10% of your final score……..
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April 22nd, 2012 at 2:09 pm 119
@vangrl: Thanks! Must’ve been another property we were thinking of.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 2:37 pm 120
@vangrl: $275/sf? Am I missing something?
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April 22nd, 2012 at 2:41 pm 121
http://www.cknw.com/news/audiovault/index.aspx
April 19, 10:00 am.
at 13:00. We now have Bill Good quoting the Alan Garr statistic of 30% increase in Maple Ridge (then Michael Levy goes on to agree.)
Just listening to the rest right now.
Michael Levy is quite gutless on this. I would expect he has personal interest in keeping the prices where they are.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 4:59 pm 122
Great piece on a New Zealanders take on Vancouver’s housing bubble
http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/04/new-zealand-take-on-canadian-real.html#comment-form
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April 22nd, 2012 at 5:05 pm 123
@vangrl:
It’s Probably Nothing(TM)
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April 22nd, 2012 at 5:06 pm 124
@McLovin: as I wrote in the comment section of the whisperer, I was really surprised that this article is fairly extensively “inspired” and even sometimes outright plagiarized from the article I wrote for GEAB regarding Real Estate in Canada…
See on the right column, on the contents section, an article called:
“The Canadian real estate insanity, a repetition of the US mistakes – Towards a 15% to 25% fall in prices from 2013
In this anticipation on the evolution of the Canadian residential real estate market, LEAP/2020 shows that the economic “miracle” is nothing more than a mirage, based on excessive private debt that created a gigantic real estate bubble that is about to burst. ”
http://www.leap2020.eu/English_r25.html
I can’t publish it online directly because of copyrights, but if you send me an email, I can send you the whole document, which includes all the articles of this issue.
Here is my email address: fortunatefool00@gmail.com
cheers
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April 22nd, 2012 at 5:18 pm 125
@McLovin: as I wrote in the comment section of the whisperer, I was really surprised that this article is fairly extensively “inspired” and even sometimes outright plagiarized from the article I wrote for GEAB regarding Real Estate in Canada…
See on the right column, on the contents section, an article called:
“The Canadian real estate insanity, a repetition of the US mistakes – Towards a 15% to 25% fall in prices from 2013
In this anticipation on the evolution of the Canadian residential real estate market, LEAP/2020 shows that the economic “miracle” is nothing more than a mirage, based on excessive private debt that created a gigantic real estate bubble that is about to burst. ”
http://www.leap2020.eu/English_r25.html
I can’t publish it online directly because of copyrights, but if you send me an email, I can send you the whole document, which includes all the articles of this issue.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 5:19 pm 126
@Makaya: Here is my email address where you can request the issue: fortunatefool00@gmail.com
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April 22nd, 2012 at 5:34 pm 127
@Devore: “It’s Probably Nothing”
LOL Probably
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April 22nd, 2012 at 6:12 pm 128
“Michael Levy is quite gutless on this. I would expect he has personal interest in keeping the prices where they are.”
Not to be rude…but “Duh”.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 7:54 pm 129
hockey season over; yardwork season begins.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 7:59 pm 130
Canucks out in first round after winning President’s trophy.
Soon – Greater Vancouver Real Estate prices fall after decade long run up.
people in the streets can be heard saying “I would have never expected that to happen.”
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April 22nd, 2012 at 8:02 pm 131
Another excuse for lackluster sales methinks.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 9:16 pm 132
Is HAM lowering overall performance of once superb schools?
The authors looked at the academic performance of more than 4,500 students in a first-year physics class at the University of British Columbia between 2002 and 2006. They found that those who had graduated from public schools in the Metro Vancouver area outperformed their peers arriving from private schools and school districts in more remote parts of the province.
The findings, which were published last week in the International Journal of Science Education, contradict some commonly held beliefs, including that independent schools give students an academic head start while those in low-income urban schools fall behind.
Within the Vancouver School Board, for example, schools on the east side of the city outperformed those in the west.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/public-school-graduates-beat-private-pupils-in-undergrad-research-finds/article2410574/
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April 22nd, 2012 at 10:33 pm 133
@Laibach: ….Within the Vancouver School Board, for example, schools on the east side of the city outperformed those in the west…..
Too bad the story appears in a newspaper, otherwise it might be believable.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 10:50 pm 134
@Anonymous: LOL you must have gone to private school. RTFP.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 11:01 pm 135
@Laibach: Explanation… selection bias.
The top local private schools are in many ways college prep schools. Few of their top students go to UBC.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 11:19 pm 136
@UnagiDon: Ah you mean the dregs of prep schools and west side public schools end up underperforming the average of east side public schools, the “best and the brightest” leaving the province. As an education ministry I know where I’d focus my money.
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April 22nd, 2012 at 11:36 pm 137
@good-format: No problem, friend. I enjoy your excellent formatting! Keep up the great work. VHB.
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April 23rd, 2012 at 3:14 am 138
@Laibach:
“Within the Vancouver School Board, for example, schools on the east side of the city outperformed those in the west.”
The average poor kid who goes to university is a lot smarter than the average rich kid who goes to university.
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April 23rd, 2012 at 7:50 am 139
@patriotz: Good point! I never thought of it that way but I’m sure your right.
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