Open Topic

Friday Free-for-all!

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230 Comments

It’s that time of the week again, let’s do our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread!  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–Van prices fall for 5th month
–Bubble popping changes?
–CMHC now handled by OSFI
–RBC: Van Vulnerable to correction
–Vancouver Price Drop Champs
–Vancouver Inventory Chart
–Lending change will cause…?
–BC Population growth stats
–Mark Carney still fretting
–Van top 4th hated city?
–More than 1 mil US underwater
–Former bears call US bottom
–Chinas impending crash

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Anonymous

@UnagiDon:

No, but I never claimed that it did, did I?

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rp1

#221 @real_professional: “Estimating government support for Canadian banks during the financial crisis”

I’d like to see an estimate of the ONGOING government support. CMHC = AIG. They buy the crap.

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Extremely rich and proud Van house owner.

@Anonymous:
It attracts hundreds of our Compatriots lining for a pc and it got sold out in 6 hrs except few million-dollars suites which will be sold out to wealthy Chinese immigrants within a wk.

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Dave

@jesse:

I have heard stories about people in the NDP that actually understand economic outcomes of certain policies. But they don’t care. Privately, they know their policies are economically bad, but they will not say that in public and will claim otherwise. True story.

Unfortunately, it isn’t just education and understanding.

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Told-you-so-in-2007

@ Hibernating Renter,

I know it shounds too terrible to be true, but the intergenerational mortgage has been availble in Japan for quite some time, and has been available in some parts of the UK since 2006.

http://tinyurl.com/7zp7v4a

Imagine paying back a mortgage over, say, 50 to 100 years… would you not end up paying an insane multiple of the property’s initial cost in interest? I’m too lazy to work this out at the moment but I’m assuming you’d end up paying 10x the cost of the property in interest over the course of the loan.

There’s nothing like selling your children into debt slavery for some folks, I guess.

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Anonymous

Anyone know how the Mandarin in Richmond did this weekend? Is there still a Canada Line halo?

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Hibernating Renter

@Told-you-so-in-2007: Re “grandpa debtors”

I can’t wait until the banks start demanding that children pay back the loans of their parents.

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UnagiDon

@Anonymous: “I’m not sure what point there is in measuring asking price drops. It seems that all you’re likely to do is discover properties where the owners were being silly. It’s not like you’re comparing sales histories or anything with any real meaning.”

What about realtors listing houses at lowball prices to spark bidding wars, only to have them sell at $500k over asking, then getting Global TV to interview them about it. Does that have any real meaning?

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Patiently Waiting

@fixie guy: Uh no, I didn’t suggest such a thing. Not sure why you think that.

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real_professional

http://www.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/National%20Office/2012/04/Big%20Banks%20Big%20Secret.pdf

Interesting report will read tonight – “The Big Banks’
Big Secret” Estimating government support for Canadian banks during the financial crisis

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fixie guy

204 Patiently Waiting Says: “From what I know of hardcore NDPers (and I know some), they don’t particularly see any strategic value in encouraging home ownership as their political strength comes from people who rent or live in co-ops.”

Being perceived as actively destroying home values is worlds away from not encouraging home ownership. Any citations for the latter?

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Laibach

@real_professional:

Every responsible government would immediately resign after such discovery prove to be true.

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real_professional

The claim in the interview: CIBC, BMO, Scotia Bank, were each underwater and the Bank of Canada injected liquidity in to the market (until now hidden from Canadians).

Argument is that the banking system in Canada isn’t as sound as we believe. David Macdonald – Senior Economist, CDN Centre for Policy Alternatives.

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Anonymous

BNN – Right now – Study Claims Canadian Govt Hid Bailouts For Big Banks

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Told-you-so-in-2007

Interesting article in the G & M regarding an increase in “grandpa debtors” (I am of course assuming this includes grandma debtors… probably more so, as women tend to live longer than men): The age of easy credit gives rise to ‘grandpa debtor’ http://tinyurl.com/74pkqd7 “Real estate can also be a factor in some of these dire debt situations, Mr. Elyea said. Some older debtors head into retirement with $50,000 still left on their mortgages, and then start using their credit cards to pay them because their income has dropped and the CPP and OAS aren’t enough to cover the payments. There’s also the trap of considering your home to be your retirement nest egg, said Mr. Elyea, which can backfire because of the unpredictability of the housing market. “In our Tri-Cities practice [covering Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and Port Moody], that’s… Read more »

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Anonymous

@Guy Smiley:

“And occaisonally amusing, like # 7 on the list”

What was the previous sale price?

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Makaya

@Anonymous: “I’m not sure what point there is in measuring asking price drops. It seems that all you’re likely to do is discover properties where the owners were being silly. It’s not like you’re comparing sales histories or anything with any real meaning.”

What this website gives you is a view on how the market is behaving, and particularly the shenanigans going on (removed listing back with a different MLS #), manipulation and failed flips.

The data itself is not meaningful, what’s interesting is its interpretation. There’s is lot of value you can get from such data.

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Guy Smiley

“I’m not sure what point there is in measuring asking price drops.”

I find it mildly satisfying, even though the new prices are still ludicrous, that they were forced to lower their extra-stupid prices. And occaisonally amusing, like # 7 on the list which is down 17% this week despite the write-up which states so confidently “Call today, land never gets cheaper”

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patriotz

@Patiently Waiting: “From what I know of hardcore NDPers (and I know some), they don’t particularly see any strategic value in encouraging home ownership as their political strength comes from people who rent or live in co-ops.” Notwithstanding whomever you might know personally the NDP is very much dependent on homeowners to get elected. I don’t think there is a single riding outside Quebec, except a few in downtown Vancouver, Toronto, etc., where most voters are not owner-occupiers. You might recall a posting right on this board that Peter Julian (MP-Burnaby New West) wrote a private member’s bill to increase the amount which could be taken out under the RRSP home buyer’s plan. There are certainly people in the NDP such as Murray Dobbin who have been astute critics of the Canadian housing bubble, but their elected officials are just… Read more »

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Makaya

Great post from ZHR2YVR on Vreaa’s blog: I am doing my usual data digging. Over the past 3-4 weeks, there has been some additional bearish inflections deep in the data. Previously, we had really high inventory increases in areas which were generally high-priced – This meant that Vancouver and Richmond had larger increases. The biggest thing I noticed is that if you look at increases since January (and especially in March/April), inventory increases are now solidly occurring in the “sweet spots” of the market – those mid-priced condos and homes at the $1.0 million mark. This shows a real slowdown. You will see this in the fact that MOI and Inventory in Burnaby and North Van are now way up and sales have finally slowed there. Burnaby was first to slow with March being the big down month. North Van… Read more »

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Anonymous

“I’m not sure what point there is in measuring asking price drops. It seems that all you’re likely to do is discover properties where the owners were being silly. It’s not like you’re comparing sales histories or anything with any real meaning.”

Yes you will see more the ‘dream’ pricing followed by subsequent drops when the market is hot. When things cool off realtors will stop accepting the listing at a ‘dream’ price in the first place.

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patriotz

@fixie guy:

While it wasn’t the original, promoting home ownership for low wage earners was its mandate for 20 years:

http://www.onpha.on.ca/AM/Template.cfm?Section=History_of_Non_Profit_Housing

As I already noted, they did promote co-op housing, which is not home ownership as most people on this board or in the general public would understand it. Even less so the broader term social housing.

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Anonymous

@Makaya:

I’m not sure what point there is in measuring asking price drops. It seems that all you’re likely to do is discover properties where the owners were being silly. It’s not like you’re comparing sales histories or anything with any real meaning.

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jesse

@Dave: “And if they bothered to learn about economics, what are the odds they would remain NDP?”

Good one! That made me LOL. I copied it before it disappears.

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Makaya

Point Grey: -29% in asking price, PH on Georgia Street: -25% since March 9… Ouch!

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/2012/04/30/the-weekly-drop-april-30-2012/

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