GVREB Press Release request for data and anecdotes

GVREB has been issuing month-end press releases in the style of the REBGV using entirely factual data and anecdotes, but without the same spin.  You’ll find last months press release here.  

As we near the end of the month the GVREB team is looking for information to be included in the press release for April.  Here’s their message:

April is almost over. As the GVREB will release the monthly stats promptly on May 1, we are seeking industry insiders to give factual and unbiased stories of the market.

You will not be named and you don’t have to identify yourself. The release is not intended to be biased but to state the facts. In order for this to continue to be more useful to the public than the biased release from REBGV (they are not to be confused with GVREB) we need to have these stories.

I would prefer these to come directly from people in the industry with real stories. The most important is to say what they see is changing. It is the changes that are interesting.

Preferred industries are:

1.) Mortgage Brokers
2.) Bank Mortgage loan officers / credit risk managers
3.) Real estate agents (your factual and unbiased opinions are helpful).
4.) Builders of single family homes (professional or one-off amateurs)
5.) Condo project mass marketing agents (standard or groupon model acceptable)
6.) Helicopter Pilots (preferred if colour is yellow).

Press release will be completed on Sunday night so please send your stories as soon as possible so they can be vetted for truth.

contact is

gvreb1 – at – gmail – dot – com

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watson
Guest
watson

@jumpin in: What a bafoon. You live in the city and have studied it as your full time career for several years and you admit you have no clue as to what is going on. Dear boss, please fire me. Wow… this sums up perfectly the real estate industry.

Sggd
Guest
Sggd

@Laibach: Yeah, because everyone Shopping for ‘high end product’ wants to ride the bus. Who knew Translink was so chic?

patriotz
Member

@jumpin in:
If someone in his position made the same comments about the stock market he would be ridiculed.

Nobody analysing, say, Apple stock cares about who’s buying it. They’re concerned with how much the company is worth based on its current and future earnings. Likewise what matters about RE is how much it’s worth based on current and future rental value.

Thinking that who’s buying an asset is more important than its fundamentals is simply the greater fool theory.

Laibach
Member
Laibach

Crap is still going strong…

“There’s always room for high-end product, but the demand is concentrated in certain areas and among certain buyers, such as the Asian-Chinese buying demographic. The Chinese are very savvy investors, very value oriented with long-term vision. They want convenient locations that are near transit.”

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/27/brian-hutchinson-skys-the-limit-in-vancouver-condo-market/

Maverick
Guest
Maverick

@jumpin in:

After reading Sommerville’s “analysis” for several years, he is either:

1. Just another real estate pumper

2. An incredibly poor economist.

Him and Helmut Pastrick couldn’t steer a canoe across Trout lake.

jesse
Member
@Micky: “People are maxed out. that is the reason why they are closing.” Or they aren’t competitive any more. It’s not like Vancouver’s demographic suddenly shifted overnight. There’s still lots of “old money” in Van West; maybe it’s getting a bit too old for these stores. That said I do know that commercial rents in many areas have increased substantially in the past few years so my guess is some of these stores have let their leases expire and are consolidating their operations; Vancouver was probably always a lower margin play for them compared to other cities. A store I knew in downtown was a family run boutique business for 40 years, the landlord was new and trying to increase margins substantially by raising rents about 25%. They just retired and vacated the place. I think there’s some earnings pressure… Read more »
Micky
Guest
Micky

“Just look at how South Granville is changing. High end clothing stores closing being replaced by Sushi joints. “This is because 1/3 of the nearby houses are empty and a bunch are owned by HAM who have not interest in the local community.”

People are maxed out. that is the reason why they are closing.

jesse
Member
Canadian Mortgage Trends with some good analysis on the government’s announcements on CMHC oversight and covered bonds. Another potential impact – and this is just a guess – is that OSFI puts CMHC’s “higher-risk” mortgage insurance under further scrutiny. In time, that could potentially affect programs like self-employed stated income insurance, for example. And on covered bonds: To reduce financial system risk, insured mortgages will no longer be allowed as collateral for newly issued covered bonds. Reuters reports that this change “could potentially become law by the end of June.” (Covered bonds are a way for banks to raise money to lend out as mortgages. They are a $63-billion market in Canada, according to DBRS.) This curtailment would immediately raise the cost of funding conventional mortgages through covered bonds. Fortunately, however, it shouldn’t dampen the market significantly over the long-run.… Read more »
jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

Fabulous! How much does he make for being the UBC specialist in real estate? Does he know that there are stuff called surveys, studies, etc….

“I have no idea and given what we don’t know, you can’t really model the market,” Somerville said. “It’s very hard to figure out what’s going on in Vancouver because there are all kinds of don’t knows. We don’t know how many of those buyers are foreign buyers, you don’t know how many are strict investment, you don’t know how many are permanent residents, and you don’t know how many are occupying their units.”

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/estimates+decline+Metro+Vancouver+home+prices/6525619/story.html#ixzz1tDOO1du8

Apocarypse Mao
Guest
Apocarypse Mao

More positive waves!

“RBC estimates 7-12% decline in Metro Vancouver home prices” Vancouver Sun

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/estimates+decline+Metro+Vancouver+home+prices/6525619/story.html#ixzz1tDHvO3ct

Scott
Guest
Scott

@vangrl: “Are duplexes considered detached?”

Detached on three sides?

Makaya
Member
Makaya
@rp1: Part of the exercise when I wrote the article for GEAB called “The Canadian Real Estate insanity, a repetition of the American mistakes” was to make my own predictions regarding where the prices would go from peak to through, and in what timeframe. I used price-to-rent ratio for the calculations. I’ve copied the last paragraph of the article below that contains the predictions. It’s good as anyone else’s predictions on this blog. Professor Shiller of Yale, who correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the 2006 US real estate bubble, recently declared: “Canada is ‘a purely random success story’” and “the housing market looks due for a US-style drop”. The LEAP/2020 team anticipates as well, based on historical price-to-rent ratios, a real estate correction averaging about 45% in the main Canadian cities. Each city will not be evenly… Read more »
mac
Guest
mac

@paulb.:

49% S/L ratio. You know what this means? Chipman’s going to report this as another good day for sales.

rp1
Guest
rp1

#40 @vangrl: “… Carney said Canada’s housing market is overvalued by 35 per cent.”

That’s using price to income, but incomes are inflated due to the housing bubble. The true level of overvaluation is hard to pin down, but comparing prices to rents is a better starting point. The Economist did this and concluded that Canada’s houses are overvalued by 75%.

http://www.economist.com/houseprices

That would require a drop of 57%, which seems too extreme in my neck of the woods (Fraser Valley). But I don’t know about Toronto. I mean, it has 180 skyscrapers under construction! Those are Chinese ghost city numbers.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

But Singtao,a ham newspaper said,average SFH is over a million in Vanchina,it translate a 6.86 increase in first 1/4 of 2012.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Anonymous: “None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.” – Goethe

vangrl
Member
vangrl

I think that detached home on Larry’s blog is a half duplex, it says that on the right hand side of his page, unless that’s a mistake.
Are duplexes considered detached?

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

@jesse

Hard times for Realtors, even honest ones like Larry…
Frankly, the price of this home is ridiculous. The neighborhood is an eyesore.

When houses do not promise sky rocketing appreciation, we look at them with a more critical eye, I guess 😉

paulb.
Guest
paulb.

New Listings 264
Price Changes 132
Sold Listings 130

TI:17368

like my FB page if you haven’t 🙂 and thx! http://tinyurl.com/paulandlauren

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Makaya:

The Sun reports:

1. What is easy and cheap ie press releases and quotes from talking heads
2. What people want to read ie real estate is the best thing ever

It is kind of like saying KFC is part of a conspiracy to make people fat and be inhumane to animals. They are only selling what people want to eat and is easy/cheap to produce. That is business 101.

Myself I don’t buy the Sun and I don’t eat at KFC. No conspiracies needed to keep me away.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
@McLovin: “Just look at how South Granville is changing. High end clothing stores closing being replaced by Sushi joints.” Poor analysis of the situation. Last time I was in a ‘sushi joint’ there were not any Chinese mainlanders but the high end clothing stores are typically filled with them. South Granville is vacant because rents have increased at close to Robson levels. Businesses are moving to Gastown, Main Street, etc chasing reasonable rents. At some point the same thing will happen in those areas. The other part is people have no disposable income left because they are maxed on mortgages. All retail businesses are suffering to some extent. It will only get worse as prices decline. If it were due to Chinese buying up everything up then we would likely see the opposite. High end clothing stores taken over by… Read more »
jesse
Member

Yatter is scoring below average today

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Anonymous: you also forgot about the SUN article “21 reasons why Richmond is booming”…

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/reasons+Richmond+real+estate+booming/5471831/story.html

And all that free air time for Bob and Cam on Globe, is that information as well?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Makaya:

“what about the cheerleading and pumping RE articles explaining us ad nauseum what great time it always is to buy? It it also just reporting?”

What about the top 2 articles today in the “Real Estate” section, the first of which says prices are coming down, the second saying people in BC don’t want to enter into bidding wars? How does that play into your conspiracy?

They’re not currently cheerleading, because the market appears to be in decline. But they were cheerleading when the market was climbing. Can you spot a pattern?

McLovin
Guest
McLovin

Vangrl:

“now I’m sure I’m sounding racist when I say that there are definitely neighbourhoods on the west side that now resemble Richmond, the charm is being destroyed”

Just look at how South Granville is changing. High end clothing stores closing being replaced by Sushi joints. Art Galleries closing and lots of For Lease signs. This is because 1/3 of the nearby houses are empty and a bunch are owned by HAM who have not interest in the local community.

Like another poster said: Vancouver is being gutted.