GVREB Press Release request for data and anecdotes

GVREB has been issuing month-end press releases in the style of the REBGV using entirely factual data and anecdotes, but without the same spin.  You’ll find last months press release here.  

As we near the end of the month the GVREB team is looking for information to be included in the press release for April.  Here’s their message:

April is almost over. As the GVREB will release the monthly stats promptly on May 1, we are seeking industry insiders to give factual and unbiased stories of the market.

You will not be named and you don’t have to identify yourself. The release is not intended to be biased but to state the facts. In order for this to continue to be more useful to the public than the biased release from REBGV (they are not to be confused with GVREB) we need to have these stories.

I would prefer these to come directly from people in the industry with real stories. The most important is to say what they see is changing. It is the changes that are interesting.

Preferred industries are:

1.) Mortgage Brokers
2.) Bank Mortgage loan officers / credit risk managers
3.) Real estate agents (your factual and unbiased opinions are helpful).
4.) Builders of single family homes (professional or one-off amateurs)
5.) Condo project mass marketing agents (standard or groupon model acceptable)
6.) Helicopter Pilots (preferred if colour is yellow).

Press release will be completed on Sunday night so please send your stories as soon as possible so they can be vetted for truth.

contact is

gvreb1 – at – gmail – dot – com

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Bargain
Guest
Bargain

I love the GVREB press releases, thanks VCI and GVREB!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Is the CMHC being moved into the responsibility of the OSFI today?

UnagiDon
Guest
UnagiDon

I would love to run an ad in the Sun / Province with the GVREB article. It is not cheap, but maybe if we all chip in $10 it is doable. Here are their rates:
http://advertising.sunprovince.com/downloads/pngrates_national.pdf

Scott
Guest
Scott

@UnagiDon: That would be awesome, but I bet they wouldn’t accept it.

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

O fo T:
Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, a new BBC poll has found widespread dissatisfaction with free-market capitalism.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8347409.stm

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

GVREB:
I would be OK to send him a $10 cheque. He/she could adjust the length to the number of cheques received.

watson
Guest
watson

OSFI to Supervise CMHC

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/26/osfi-to-supervise-cmhc/

Nice…

As for banks shedding themselves of sub-prime or as we say in Canada “non-prime” (same f-ing thing) – find out who the soon to be defunct institutions or companies are that are buying them and short the hell out of them.

UnagiDon
Guest
UnagiDon

@Scott: “That would be awesome, but I bet they wouldn’t accept it.”

That would be interesting if they did not accept it!

Does anyone have any experience doing online donations? Is there a simple, convenient way to do this?

VMD
Member
Makaya
Member
Makaya

@UnagiDon: you can set that up through paypal. Very convenient.

b5baxter
Member

new inventory graph at:
http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/inventory-graph/forum/topic/2012-april-graphs/?_wpnonce=f20d012bed#post-2381

Over the last month the average daily increase was:
63
At this rate we will reach 18,000 in 16 days (May-12-12)
At this rate we will reach 20,000 in 43 days (Jun-08-12)
and 25,000 by August-27-12

Inventory is still at the highest it has been in the last 11 years for this time of year. Inventory also has passed the peak it reached last year in September.

May should be interesting to watch. Will it increases rapidly as it did in 2010 and stay in record territory, or will it fall below the 2010 levels?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@b5baxter: “At this rate we will reach…”

Interesting use of extrapolation…

Judging by the graph, I imagine we’ll be lucky to see 20,000 this year. The current rate of increase is fairly close to April 2007 or 2011, both of which levelled off quite quickly.

b5baxter
Member

@Anonymous: Inventory is significantly higher than it was in 2007 and 2011 so I am not sure we can extrapolate that it will behave the same this year.

Note that I am not making predictions about what inventory will do only pointing out what would happen IF the 30 day moving average trend continued.

jesse
Member

@VMD: The way the covered bond statement was worded was a bit odd. We’ll have to wait for the legislation to see the details.

WFT?
Guest
WFT?

Excellent post on vancouverpricedrop today about the precentage of new listings that are recycled. High percentages seem to correlate with weak localities.

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

Makaya
Member
Makaya
No, really? Vancouver ‘vulnerable’ to housing bust, RBC warns Senior economist Robert Hogue says the most likely scenario would see a “modest price decline” of between 7 per cent and 12 per cent from a quarterly peak to trough, in the medium term. That’s because the surge in prices from 2009 to the beginning of 2011 was overstated by using averages, demand and supply appear balanced now, and decent economic and demographic fundamentals will support the market. But it could play out another way, Mr. Hogue warned, noting the market has cooled, and both and sales and prices have dropped. “With affordability, or rather unaffordability, having moved off the scale in the past three to four years, the historically volatile Vancouver area market is undoubtedly under substantial stress,” he said in a report. “Indeed it is vulnerable to a marked… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@WFT?:

Not sure how to interpret that table. Squamish is at one end, whilst Whistler and the Sunshine Coast are towards the other. I thought all 3 were had high MOIs and low sales currently?

They say “Looking at the results, this seems like a pretty good indicator of gauging overall selling conditions in each area.”, but I find it hard to agree.

condo paradise
Guest
condo paradise

Had an Asian(mainland china) fellow asking around our building if there were any rentals available. He was escorting a couple who had just arrived from Beijing and were looking for a long term rental. I asked him why they were not looking to buy. He immediately replied. “Ooh no, the market is terrible and now is not the time to purchase”

So much for HAM!

Burbs Boy
Guest
Burbs Boy

gofundme.com has worked from some campaigns that I have seen if people are looking for a way to connect safely to solicit funds.

On another note… perhaps Jesse or Patriotz could comment on something for me. A common phase is “the government is out of bullets”.. but what would stop them from rolling out the 35 year morgage again if the markets softens a wee bit too much for their liking? It seems that some of the some of the head winds that RE faces are being implemented by the CONS themselves and that if push comes to shove they could roll them back (perhaps facing voter backlash??). Curious on your thoughts on this. Thanks

McLovin
Guest
McLovin

Question on inventory:

How relevant is the comparison to levels 5-10 years ago when there were less people and less units? Is the difference noteworthy?

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo

B5

Thanks for inventory graph.

If I had to guess, I’m thinking that some kind of event (Spanish default, oil price collapse, Occupy America riots, Luongo trade) will precipitate a little crisis over the next 3-6 months and that will result in a steeper inventory build. Keep in mind that the current modest decline in inventory build rate has co-incided with a really good stock market (S&P 500 up 25% in a few months, VIX collapsing, put-to-call collapsing).

Calling for 30,000 TI before y/e 2012 and 50,000 TI by y/e 2013.

Not So
Guest
Not So

Had an Asian(mainland china) fellow asking around our building if there were any rentals available. He was escorting a couple who had just arrived from Beijing and were looking for a long term rental. I asked him why they were not looking to buy. He immediately replied. “Ooh no, the market is terrible and now is not the time to purchase”

So much for HAM!
_____

Yes, one anecdote completely negates the impact of foreign buyers on our market . Take some more liberties while you are at it…

jesse
Member
@McLovin: Very good question. Here’s a bit of a long winded answer. There are two major factors affecting baseline dwelling formation: migration (people moving into and out of the province) and demographic shifts (people approaching ages where they move into and out of dwellings of their own). BC has a steady stream of population growth that is mostly immigration and some interprovincial growth. This growth fluctuates over time and is in the range about 20K-70K. As growth ebbs inventory tends to increase in lieu. Inventory in the latter part of the 1990s and first part of the 2000s was higher than subsequent, and this was at a time when net interprovincial migration was negative and immigration was at a cyclical low. Demographic shifts will produce a baseline demand as well, as families form and have children they will consume a… Read more »
patriotz
Member

@McLovin:
Don’t consume demand for shelter with demand to own RE. They are two completely different things.

The population of the US didn’t stop growing in 2006, did it?

patriotz
Member

@patriotz:
Should be “confuse” of course. But the point is that shelter is a consumable and RE isn’t.

🙂

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