Housing Market Stats March 2012

April 4, 2012 wreckonomics

The official REBGV housing market stats are now out. I’ll link to the version on the Paulb facebook page since he’s been so consistent with providing us the daily stats.

Get the REBGV full stats release here.

The funny thing about stats is that you can take the same data and spin it either way. GVREB has been doing a bang-up job of posting end of the month news releases in the style of the REBGV, but with a reverse spin. These use factual numbers and quotes, but come across quite different in tone from the official news releases. Here’s an archive thread at Vancouverpeak.com with the most recent one.

Get the GVREB news release here.

And some of you pointed out a few surprising stats. It looks like the most desirable areas are showing the most weakness right now.

VMD pointed out the following:

Disaster zones:
– despite Greater Vancouver area having a 12.9% increase in sales in Mar/12 vs Feb/12, the following areas showed Declines in sales MoM.
1. Richmond SFH – down 60% YoY
Y/M Sales %change
12/3 104 n/a
12/2 119 -13%
11/3 262 -60%
2. Van West SFH – down 46% YoY
Y/M Sales %change
12/3 152 n/a
12/2 177 -14%
11/3 279 -46%
3. Burnaby SFH – down 40% YoY
Y/M Sales %change
12/3 95 n/a
12/2 105 -10%
11/3 160 -40%

And Best Place on Meth pointed out the median prices have taken a month over month dive in those areas:

Median detached prices in the 3 bubbliest areas took a hit last month.
Van West: -$245,000 (-10.7%)
Richman: -$72,000 (-7.1%)
West Van: -$70,000 (-3.6%)
Honourable mention to Burnaby: -$27,000 (-3.0%)
Looks like a HAMPLOSION.

Spring is normally when the market swings into gear and sales and prices start to rise. Have these hot areas burnt themselves out?

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Chief

10 years ago

@Big Bear:

@ Big Bear,

it is true. Chinese don’t declare income here and suck up child tax credits, monthly federal bonuses, day care subsidies, etc.
They are as cheap as cheap is. As soon as they find out about a low income benefit they’re all over it.

Anonymous

10 years ago

@Big Bear: You don’t need to declare if you bring in less than $10K into the country. Thus if the family goes back to China every 3 month, each person can bring back $9999 CAD back without needing to tell anyone. As for bank tracking, just deposit $1K at a time or rent a safety deposit box if you are really paranoid. That’s very common.

As for claiming benefits, most new immigrants know how to do that. It’s called the Internet? There are forums dedicated to this stuff. If they are really stuck, well your local SUCCESS branch is more than happy to help out! After all that is part of their mission!

Many Franks

10 years ago

@rp1: Yes, I’m aware. My point is that lending costs are going up for banks, and they’ve been given a clear signal from the regulators that they will have to watch their own backs. The 2.99% BMO special is a thing of the past. Bond rates are low compared to historical levels but the downtrend is clearly broken.

And stop talking about my nice round bottom.

good-format

10 years ago

 Date      Listing  Price(+-)  Sold   Inv     Inv(+-)  S/L(%)
Mar-28       259     118       104   16,173     84     40.2
Mar-29       239     104       151   16,180      7     63.2

Apr-02       450     139       125   16,074            27.8
Apr-03       319     133       224   16,124     50     70.2
Apr-04       302     131       147   16,230    106     48.7

Total-Cur  1,071     403       496             156     46.3
5 day-avg    314     125       150              62     47.9
Total-Est  6,719   2,653     3,200   17,342  1,272     47.6

Historical April Sales and listing

       sales   listing   S/L
2001   2,253    3,556   63.4%
2002   3,785    5,215   72.6%
2003   3,095    4,139   74.8%
2004   4,106    5,665   72.5%
2005   4,043    5,731   70.5%
2006   3,345    4,452   75.1%
2007   3,490    5,724   61.0%
2008   3,218    7,010   45.9%
2009   2,963    4,649   63.7%
2010   3,512    7,648   45.9%
Mean   3,381    5,379   62.9%
Median

jumpin in

10 years ago

How to save $25 000 (kidding, of course).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0p0gayRyBuY&feature=player_embedded

rp1

10 years ago

#52 @Many Franks: Regarding the 5 year bond yield, look at the 5 year chart. Granted, it does look like a nice round bottom, but you may find these yields and the yield curve a bit more informative.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

Gee, I wonder what it means when the interest rates for all durations are the same and rise together 🙂

jesse

10 years ago

@Dante: “still a lot’s of knife catchers among the sales numbers” To give some context to the “year of horror” AKA 2008, sales were higher in April than March. To equal 2008 we would need sales of about 3200, or averaging 160 per day for the 20 business days in the month. We are currently at an average of 165 per day, which would be 3300 sales. As I’ve stated before there is lots of inherent variability in sales and listings volume so it really may be nothing. That stated, the macro picture this year is less favourable than last year: – population growth slowing – advent of credit tightening on the horizon – increased for-sale inventory – prices are higher – Chinese GDP growth looks to be slowing IMO the big one is credit tightening. There is little way… Read more »

Bob

10 years ago

I have no idea why you basement suite dwellers pick on Realtors.

After Goldmans Sachs broker, it is the next most trusted profession since Ouija Board repairmen.

Just see the most recent National Enquirer poll..you assh%$les

Anonymous

10 years ago

@Tony: Well if that’s true Tony, we’re in for a world of hurt based on where inventory is starting from the end of winter.

gordholio

10 years ago

My apologies to those who’ve already seen it, but I just gotta post this again. USA circa 2006, as the bubble exploded all around.

http://www.burbed.com/2006/11/06/its-a-great-time-to-buy-or-sell-a-home-the-ad/

PS: #65 Anonymous: Had to step back from the monitor, but the bear is awesome. Roar!

UnagiDon

10 years ago

@Alum: “So buying a condo is a safe bet in this market.”

Your realtor is only half as smart as mine. He tells me that now is a good time either to buy or to sell a condo.

Alum

10 years ago

According my local realtor, as housing price increases have stalled, condos have more room for price appreciation.

So buying a condo is a safe bet in this market.

VMD

10 years ago

[Bank rules may cool Vancouver condo market: Flaherty]
4/4/2012

The minister said in his budget last week that the government would implement “enhanced supervision” for the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp., the body that insures loans for buyers who put down less than 20 per cent of the cost of the home.

The minister wouldn’t reveal what changes are coming for the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. He said an announcement is coming soon..

http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120404/bc_flaherty_warns_cooling_condo_market_120404/20120404/?hub=BritishColumbiaHome

Anonymous

10 years ago

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Devore

10 years ago

@jesse:

Devore, why I just heard from a Realtor on Realestatetalks that he’s busier than ever, he cannot understand the aggregate numbers.

Those ‘for sale’ signs don’t hammer themselves into the ground, and someone has to keep open houses staffed. Realtors are always busy, but busy doesn’t put food on the table.

Anonymous

10 years ago

@mac: I remember watching that shot in real time and being absolutely stunned. That is still one of the greatest sports moments of all time. It’s almost mystical the way that the golf ball seems to stop on the rim, delay for about a second and finally find its way to its intended location, as if it were purposefully teasing us.

Tony

10 years ago

@mclovin, I agree, you are dumb. Inventory rises during the spring and summer.

Navin R. Johnson

10 years ago

Where are all those a-hole re: shills that were so quick to jump on here and bash the bears yesterday? These ain’t bullish number buttholes

mac

10 years ago

@McLovin:

Ooooh. April 20th. Auspicious day for home selling: Adolf’s birthday! Woohoo! Let’s get all our 444444s out.

McLovin

10 years ago

17K Party by April 20!

I might be a dumb bear but isn’t inventory supposed to decline during “prime selling season”?

real_professional

10 years ago

inventory building at a good pace….”from hell’s heart I stab at thee”

mac

10 years ago

I needed this with all those idiots out there still buying places:

http://macromon.wordpress.com/2012/04/04/masters-week-this-guy-is-pretty-good/

Dante

10 years ago

still a lot’s of knife catchers among the sales numbers

paulb.

10 years ago

New Listings 302
Price Changes 131
Sold Listings 147
TI:16230

Thanks for the Facebook “likes” VCI. Appreciate the support!!

FB Page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Metro-Vancouver-Real-Estate/168140046580966

sid

10 years ago

“was talking about kids attending public schools”

not necessarily. foreign student can attend US public universities. they just pay international rates.

Vancouver Condo Info

Housing Market Stats March 2012

Bubble? What Bubble?