BC, opinion, predictions, presales, prices

More Pre-sales Mania

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The telephone company is building a condo tower and they’ve sold out their pre-sales units.

“It’s all geographic who’s doing well.”

Recent figures from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver compiled by various real-estate analysts indicate higher numbers for unsold inventory than past years at the same time.

Local sellers all say that it’s not foreign investors driving the market for the successful projects, but local investors and people planning to live in the condos themselves.

Ms. Goertz said Telus offered its employees priority in sales at Telus Gardens and 150 of them bought, even though the price discount was a modest one per cent.

BLISTINGAGENT had an interesting point in the previous thread: A couple of years ago when the market took a dive a lot of presales buyers tried to walk away from their contracts and developers sued them for the difference between their deposit and the current value of the condos. What happens if the market takes another dive and Telus employees try to walk away from their presales? Dock their pay?

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Devore

@Bear Vancouverite: Well, strangely, I bought my condo 5 years ago for around $375,000, and sold it 2 years ago, and I sure as fuck didn’t get anywhere close to $454,000. Maybe should have gotten Ian Watt to sell it for me?

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trackback

[…] pointed out the following: Disaster zones: – despite Greater Vancouver area having a 12.9% increase in sales in Mar/12 vs […]

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Makaya

@stalkingu: I guess he’s about to lose his Ferrari. He risks life in prison. I wonder what he’s gonna do with the $15 millions he made last year now…

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Anonymous

@Street Meat: …..they got the ownership premium and got to live for five years without constantly checking a doomer website and feeling bitter…..

Of course, they had to spend even more time checking for leaks but that’s different.

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Anonymous

@jesse: …(rubs eyes) you mean SFH sales in those areas DOWN from Feb to Mar? Ruh-Roh…

SALES ARE NOT DOWN! People are just buying fewer properties.
🙂

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McLovin

I take a net 100 new in the busiest month of the year any day.

I expect 17,000 by the 3rd week of April and it will grow from there.

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Meh

@stalkingu: He looks like he won’t be lonely in prison.

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Anonymous

Felt nauseous last night when reading this one:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11735816&PidKey=-276402923
MLS #: V940456

“With the movement in Edgemont, question you need to ask yourself is-Will new homes in Edgemont be close to $3 million by the end of September? Don’t wait too long to find out!!”
This about a house that has been sitting on the market for over a year already. Who writes this kind of nonsense?

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Nadiel

Best leading indicator for Vancouver home price is old VSX.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CDNX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95696037966

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stalkingu

the richmond drug dealer busted in the 300k deal down south. give him a poke.

John Philip Co | Facebook
http://www.facebook.com/people/John-Philip-Co/737233864

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Anonymous

Absurd Vancouver Property of the Week

http://thethirtiesgrind.com/2012/04/02/absurd-vancouver-property-of-the-week-2/

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Anonymous

@Street Meat:

Not sure what “numbers” you are looking at but…
If you look at a 30 day moving average of daily inventory increases it has actually moved up in the last couple of days. I will post details on Thursday.

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Street Meat

haha bears…

Looks like April is off to a wonderful start with today’s numbers…

Like clockwork the Spring market is kicking in…

This will be what, the3rd or 4th year where you start to whine about dwindling inventory and have your little your little dreams dashed and where you have to blow out the “inventory party” candles because the normal cycle returns….

God, I love this blog’s entertainment value…

Every year you guys are apparently “sooooooo very close to a “crash” and then low and behold the market comes back with a vengeance…

Hahahahahahaha forenters ( I like Ian’s term).

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Street Meat

no, for the example that was given you’ve conveniently ignored that the mortgage principal amount would be down about 50,000 over the five years. basically, at todays interest rates, the five year renting vs. owning calculation on that condo is basically a wash. condo prices have stagnated the last five years, which is what i told you would happen five years ago. prices don’t stagnate in a bubble.
_____

Yup, the little bears conveniently ignored the amount that has not been wasted on rent – 50k in equity is pretty sweet after 5 years of owning and they got the ownership premium and got to live for five years without constantly checking a doomer website and feeling bitter.

I think that “premium” is worth another 50k…lol

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paulb.

New Listings 319
Price Changes 133
Sold Listings 224

TI:16124

If you like the updates please “like” my FB Page. 🙂

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Metro-Vancouver-Real-Estate/168140046580966

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stagnate

patriotz says:
You omitted the really big hit, which is that she has been bleeding cash because the rent is less than expenses (probably by around $1000/month) and cannot make up for it from appreciation.
So the total hit would be around $50K. Ouch.

no, for the example that was given you’ve conveniently ignored that the mortgage principal amount would be down about 50,000 over the five years. basically, at todays interest rates, the five year renting vs. owning calculation on that condo is basically a wash. condo prices have stagnated the last five years, which is what i told you would happen five years ago. prices don’t stagnate in a bubble.

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Van coffee

No need to continue comparing cost to own to rent. It is just silly here.
My rent is 4400
Asking price on my place which is a wee wee bit off the market is 2.8 mil
Do that math with a normal say govy 5 year yield…..
We call the Taiwanese subsidy

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Anonymous

@Yalie: Same for me…my rent is $1725 and it would cost $2700 to own with strata and prop tax ($570k)

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Bob

I patented the RE Hologram machine.

Got an option on land in Gopher Nutz Saskatchewan, Big HD screen,video feed of Mountains, Ocean, Bob Rennies art collection…. who would know the difference ?

P.S. VCI posters get 10% off before I hire Pre Sale line up actors.
Buy now, or be priced out day before yesterday.

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Absinthe

@Yalie: Plus, 15% over five years is mostly holding steady vs. inflation .

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Yalie

@Bear Food:

Fair enough, although to my eyeball the average looks closer to 400k than 375k in mid-2007, which would be more like a 15% increase.

But whatever, I never said the prices haven’t gone up, I said the average person hasn’t seen much “profit” vs renting when taking into account total cost of ownership.

I currently rent a condo that would sell in roughly the average price range. And the difference between my rent and the equivalent mortgage+strata would be about $1000 per month. Over 5 years that’s 60k. Add insurance, property taxes, and investment opportunity cost, and you’re not left with much “profit” relative to renting.

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jesse

@chip: Maybe. I like to think that the CRA gets enough in penalties and fines from the “cheats” that I get a nice discount on my tax bill. I was also quite moved when Flaherty announced bolstering of the RDSP program, a complexity I gladly support.

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chip

@jesse:

As a business owner, dealing with the CRA is a huge headache.

The cost of running the CRA is $7 billion a year. The cost of complying with the CRA’s increasing byzantine rules is $15-20 billion.

There really is no reason for the tax code to be so complicated. For starters, I would remove all credits from the system. To send money to Ottawa so they can hire tens of thousands of bureaucrats to process a credit and send some money back to you is ridiculous. Cut the tax rate, eliminate the credits and reduce our dependence on accountants.

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Tick Tock

RE Real estate now and back then…

I sold my townhouse spring 2010, i made a net profit for 200K, today if I still owned it i would be hard pressed to get the same amount it sold for, likely about 10K less. For the past 2 yrs i have rented and invested the proceeds which has more than paid for 2 yrs of rent, so here you have it, a true story that Vancouver westside has not performed well in the last 2 yrs in the condo/townhouse segment.

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jesse

CBC: ‘Room for improvement’ in CRA efforts to catch tax evaders The Canada Revenue Agency doesn’t do a bad job of finding those who fail to register or file returns, according to the auditor general. But he finds there’s “room for improvement.”… In the two fiscal years the auditor general examined, the sleuthing of those 700 employees uncovered $2.8 billion in additional taxes, interest and penalties each year – exceeding the CRA’s own target of $2.4 billion. That’s an average of $4 million in newly-found tax revenue per employee per year. While the auditor general said the program generally works, the audit outlined several places where the tax agency came up short. For instance, the CRA has developed a risk-scoring model to give it a better idea of which non-filers to pursue. But the audit found that the CRA hasn’t… Read more »

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