BC, data, Open Topic, prices

Shopping for deals? Vancouver Price Drop.

April 25, 2012 admin

An Observer has started up a new Vancouver RE blog focused specifically on tracking price drops!

Right now at vancouverpricedrop you’ll find number of asking price drops by area and a ‘top eleven’ list of price drops in the Vancouver and Fraser Valley region.

These drops are all over the map, some have dropped asking price by a million and are still a million over assesment. There are a couple that seem serious though with new asking prices several hundred thousand dollars under assessed value.

It’s fantastic to see a new addition to the Vancouver bubble blog crowd, especially one that is focused on specific data. Looking forward to watching this one in the future!

Here’s that link again: vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com

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Anonymous

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$1825/month for CO-OP housing???????????
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2976972346.html

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A familiar (to us) message from someone who’s not a RE commentator:

Gwynne Dyer – China’s Impending Crash

Multiply the Wuhan example by hundreds of other municipal authorities that are also borrowing billions to finance a similar “dash for growth,” and you have a financial situation as volatile as the “sub-prime mortgage” scam that brought the US economy to its knees. Except that when the Chinese property boom implodes, it may bring the whole world economy to its knees.

Ironic that so many people think that Chinese money makes the Vancouver RE market immune from downturns, when it’s becoming increasingly apparent that the closer your ties to China the bigger the hit will be.

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jumpin in

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From the article:
“Building a skyscraper is the ultimate expression of economic confidence, and more than half of the 124 skyscrapers currently under construction in the world are being built in China. ”
Does this mean the other half is in Toronto?

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April is almost over. As the GVREB will release the monthly stats promptly on May 1, we are seeking industry insiders to give factual and unbiased stories of the market. You will not be named and you don’t have to identify yourself. The release is not intended to be biased but to state the facts. In order for this to continue to be more useful to the public than the biased release from REBGV (they are not to be confused with GVREB) we need to have these stories. I would prefer these to come directly from people in the industry with real stories. The most important is to say what they see is changing. It is the changes that are interesting. Preferred industries are: 1.) Mortgage Brokers 2.) Bank Mortgage loan officers / credit risk managers 3.) Real estate agents… Read more »

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Patsan

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February Teranet numbers out:
Vancouver
m/m: -0.32%
y/y: +6.20%
year to date: -0.58%

M/m -0.32% transforms into -3.84% annually. If the trend continues (and year-to-date number supports this hipotesis so far), it may take a year or so to see the negative y/y numbers unless the panic spreads on price reductions.

Victoria is in a free fall
m/m: -1.09%
y/y crossed into a negative territory: -1.65%

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Makaya

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Here is an interesting video about the GFC and derivatives.

Part of the video is about the RE boom and subsequent bust in Georgia and a fight of the “housing lobby” against a law that was passed there to limit predatory lending in that State.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04/money-power-wall-street-full-episode/

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gLOO

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I thought vancouverCONDO.info is supposed to be about condos!? There is way too much non-condo info on here.

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Devore

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Interesting that it is about 1 month before the price is initially reduced, or listing taken down.

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Devore

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@Devore: I see the start date for the data is March 9, so that’s what’s going on 😉

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Manna from heaven

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CMHC set to be under OSFI supervision?

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/25/cmhc-set-to-be-under-osfi-supervision/

Carney urges caution as house prices outrun income

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/24/carney-house-price-to-income-ratio-outstrips-norm-by-35/

So is Carney saying that Canada’s housing market is 35% overvalued?

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@Manna from heaven: It was carney that reduce the interest rate to 1% to help his buddies over at Bay Street. The ultra low interest rate did not help Bay Street, it went to fuel the housing bubble even more. Now that the bubble is starting to burst, he is crying wolf and trying to distance himself from it. He is also looking to jump ship to Bank of England. Bon Voyage!

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Bargain

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@gLOO: Awwww, so sorry you’re unhappy with the content here, you should ask for a refund!

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http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/04/bank-of-canada-house-price-to-income-ratio-outstrips-norm-by-35.html

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@VanRant:
When the US dropped interest rates in 2008, the BoC had to follow suit or see the complete collapse of the Canadian auto industry and most other manufacturing in the country due to a high dollar.

The Conservative government decided to use the low interest rates to fuel a housing/consumer debt bubble to produce a bogus “recovery”. If they had not done so the RE/consumer sector would have taken a hit – as it should have – but the real economy would have been done just as well and perhaps better.

So it was a matter of one move that was unavoidable in practical terms and another that was not only avoidable but opportunistic and self-serving.

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@patriotz: From what I see the juicing of the housing market via CMHC was seen by the government as an efficient and quick way of shovelling credit into the economy, first by allowing people to consolidate debts under rock bottom interest rates, second by eliciting sales activity that results in immediate extra consumption due to transaction costs, furniture purchases, and other renovations. Infrastructure spending through the “Canadian Action Plan” was not what pulled Canada out of the doldrums initially: most of the spending took place in 2010 and 2011, not 2009. The surge in mortgage credit, OTOH, started having immediate effect starting in the spring of 2009. My guess is they knew what they were doing but underestimated the magnitude of land speculation that occurred as a result. Further, I think they were caught flat-footed when it became obvious CMHC… Read more »

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registered

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15 jesse Says: “My guess is they knew what they were doing but underestimated the magnitude of land speculation that occurred as a result.”

The hurdle for that argument is an HPI clearly exploding in 2006, the first year of Harper government, not the year of the turn down. The other hurdle is not seeing wind downs in CMHC policy until after trading a minority for a majority win. I think you’re being far too generous regarding intent.

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@crashcow: that means we are all going to get 35% raises! YIPEE!

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Nice! VancouverSun.com top news story:

Vancouver home prices fall for fifth-consecutive month

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/mortgages/Vancouver+home+prices+fall+fifth+consecutive+month/6517076/story.html

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Makaya

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Bubble watchers set to eye Canadian housing data “He also has warned that home prices in some cities are “extremely firm,” and that there are “issues” in some segments of the market. While he wasn’t more specific, Mr. Carney surely meant the Toronto condo market, now the epicentre for fears about a jarring correction, just as Vancouver was playing that role a year ago when he travelled to the Western city to warn in a speech about “extreme” pricing fuelled by foreign speculators.” The story is changing again? Now it’s all HAM’s fault again? “Even as rising rates would likely mean lower home prices, the hope among economists pushing for hikes is that a small rate increase or two over the next six or eight months would cool the market without crippling it, and would nudge borrowers to rein in… Read more »

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@900kCrackHouse:
“Homes prices edged down 0.2 per cent in February from the month before but were still 6.1 per cent higher than a year ago, according to a well-watched housing index.”

No, they were 6.1 per cent higher than February 2011.

We might well already be flat or negative YOY, but we’ll have to wait a couple of months to know.

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@Makaya:
There is no sweet spot. Domestic demand has been driven by rising RE prices, just as it was in the US. Stop the rise in RE prices and domestic demand falls. But of course RE prices will stop rising at some point anyway.

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Inventory

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Richmond detached Inventory.

30 Sep 2008 = 1012

20 Apr 2012 = 1021

25 Apr 2012 = 1041

Another inventory high!

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Inventory

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Richmond Detached Inventory

April
2005 = 556
2006 = 448
2007 = 613
2008 = 656
2009 = 670
2010 = 671
2011 = 872

30 Sep 2008 = 1012
20 Apr 2012 = 1021
25 Apr 2012 = 1041

These stats gives a clearer picture.

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gLOO

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vancouver – 4th most hated city

http://amplicate.com/places/233-top-cities/

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Former bears calling bottom in US:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/housing-bottom-callers-zelman-thornberg.html

“Ivy Zelman, formerly at Credit Suisse, became an internet favorite when she asked Toll Brothers CEO Bob Toll “Which Kool-aid are you drinking?” on the Q4 2006 Toll Brothers conference call.

Thornberg was one of the first (and few) academics to call the bubble in California.

A nominal bottom in housing would be an important step in turning around the US economy. The people who want a slow decline for Canada are completely wrong, the sooner the bottom the better.

Bubble? What Bubble?