BC, data, Open Topic, prices

Shopping for deals? Vancouver Price Drop.

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An Observer has started up a new Vancouver RE blog focused specifically on tracking price drops!

Right now at vancouverpricedrop you’ll find number of asking price drops by area and a ‘top eleven’ list of price drops in the Vancouver and Fraser Valley region.

These drops are all over the map, some have dropped asking price by a million and are still a million over assesment.  There are a couple that seem serious though with new asking prices several hundred thousand dollars under assessed value.

It’s fantastic to see a new addition to the Vancouver bubble blog crowd, especially one that is focused on specific data.  Looking forward to watching this one in the future!

Here’s that link again: vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com

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@fixie guy: ….This government clearly pushed the country to the economic brink for party gains and came up with an arcane, submerged, comprehensible to politicos only means of creating politically expedient plausible dependability….

Not to mention the explosion in crop circles, cattle mutilations, and illicit trade in tin foil hats.

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37 Anonymous Says: As an aside, this would represent a pretty cowardly move on the part of Flaherty and the Harper Conservatives who very clearly recognize the risks baked into the housing market, want it to cool…”

What a great, great, great illustration of Machiavellian inside politics. This government clearly pushed the country to the economic brink for party gains and came up with an arcane, submerged, comprehensible to politicos only means of creating politically expedient plausible deniability. If only they turned those admirable powers to our global advantage instead of inward for their own.

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patriotz
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@Anonymous:
“This may well be political cowardice at its finest.”

Note also the finger-pointing at immigrants from Kenney and Con apologists like Diane Francis.

The buck doesn’t stop with Steve. Not if he can help it.

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Expected sales 2,906 is on the way to beat the lowest sales (2963 in 2009) in 10 years

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Copied from PaulB’s number http://www.laurenandpaul.ca Date Listing Price(+-) Sold Inv Inv(+-) S/L(%) Apr-02 450 139 125 16,074 27.8 Apr-03 319 133 224 16,124 50 70.2 Apr-04 302 131 147 16,230 106 48.7 Apr-05 277 118 117 16,345 115 42.2 Apr-10 403 211 159 16,475 130 39.5 Apr-11 416 151 202 16,618 143 48.6 Apr-12 333 140 103 16,736 118 30.9 Apr-13 289 146 150 16,807 71 51.9 Apr-16 341 170 137 16,883 76 40.2 Apr-17 280 177 179 16,893 10 63.9 Apr-18 301 146 170 16,971 78 56.5 Apr-19 251 127 129 17,025 54 51.4 Apr-20 238 131 85 17,137 112 35.7 Apr-23 309 175 150 17,195 58 48.5 Apr-24 343 145 218 17,220 25 63.6 Apr-25 292 130 160 17,279 59 54.8 Total-Cur 5,144 2,370 2,455 1,205 47.7 5 day-avg 233 145 150 65 64.5 Total-Est 5,843 2,804 2,906… Read more »
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‘big’ tumble! (ha!) into the bog…

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Coquitlam numbers from Larry Yatter are very bearish.

Sales down and prices took a bog tumble:

http://www.yattermatters.com/

Average and Median Price Scores

It’s uncertain whether Coquitlam home sellers will turn in their seasons tickets as they watch Average Asking prices for sold properties drop from Feb/Mar’s $785,662 to Mar/Apr’s $762,789.

Median Ask prices for sold properties in Feb/Mar crossed the center line at $777,800 only to be slammed into the boards as Mar/Apr recorded $739,000.

Average Sold prices in Feb/Mar’s $774,915 came out from behind the net but were cross checked as Mar/Apr recorded the hit at $749,417.

A slap shot sent Feb/Mar’s Median Sold price of $766,355, clear of the net and above the glass to record $734,950 in Mar/Apr.

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From the Macleans article:

“Putting CMHC into OSFI hands may well represent a greater tightening of credit than Flaherty could have done by shortening amortization lengths or increasing down payments. OSFI regulators, in fact, have gone public on several occasions to express concerns about underwriting standards in Canada. Expect significant changes to happen, though likely behind the scenes.

As an aside, this would represent a pretty cowardly move on the part of Flaherty and the Harper Conservatives who very clearly recognize the risks baked into the housing market, want it to cool, but also want the blame to fall on someone else should the “soft landing” turn into a bust. This may well be political cowardice at its finest.”

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Great article from Macleans on the CMHC changes coming (tomorrow?):

The under-the-radar changes that may soon deflate (or pop) the housing bubble

“Given that CMHC now accounts for half the mortgage market, it’s fair to say that a rationing of their credit is a very big deal. This is a hard stop if ever I’ve seen one…”

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/04/23/the-under-the-radar-changes-that-may-soon-deflate-or-pop-the-housing-bubble/

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I moved here from London (born and raised)about 18 years ago and, shortly after that, home prices tripled in my home city. No doubt, people made a lot of money very quickly and I do get quite upset to see how many people I know there have investment properties. At this time, Brits became confident and started investing in property on a large scale in countries like Spain – a little like the speculation we are seeing here. We all know what position Spain is in.

My point is that creating personal wealth through rampant speculation often ends badly produces leaves collateral damage in its wake.

On a final note, as of today, the UK is officially in a double dip recession for the first time since the 70’s and “no man is an island.”

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@patriotz: When the credit party in Canada Australia and China run out, the u.s. has another dip coming in prices. Not one large enough to make someone locking in crazy insane low rates for an entire 30 years to worry about, however. (Wait, it’s a great time to buy a house? Did I say that?)

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@VMD: Nice catch. That’s a nosedive.

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@patriotz: It took 14 to 18 months for falling prices to actually sink in with the general public in Australia. Based on my observations of press article comments.

So, based on Teranet, you have at least a year before sentiment shifts in Canada.

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@paulb.:
Thus far in April…
2012 vs 2011
Sales: approx equal
New Lists: approx +15%
Sale/List ratio: 48% vs 55% (decrease of 7%)

(last year’s daily stats had some gaps, which I interpolated)

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New Listings 292
Price Changes 130
Sold Listings 162
TI:17279

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca weekly stats are updated

paulboenisch@gmail.com

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@gLOO:

“vancouver – 4th most hated city”

The comments on there are priceless.

All about what a useless bunch of cretins Vancouverites are.

So very true, the worst people on the planet.

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@jesse:

But if we look at median price…

Rmd-SFH Median YoY 
03/12 $943000 -4.6
02/12 $1015000 -1.5
01/12 $978888 -4.2
12/11 $965000 2.7
11/11 $948500 14.2
10/11 $999999 17.1
09/11 $1025000 27.5
08/11 $1020000 22.4
07/11 $945000 13.4
06/11 $980000 18.1
05/11 $990000 16.5
04/11 $940500 18.3
03/11 $988000 16.5
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@jesse:

They were told that “smart investor” must be patient, and market will eventually reverse. Good luck with that this time.

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@Inventory: Do we all remember Richmond a year ago? http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/04/24/its-over/

That city has been dead for a year and here we sit with record for-sale inventory, the benchmark price is still as high as ever.

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patriotz
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Former bears calling bottom in US:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/housing-bottom-callers-zelman-thornberg.html

“Ivy Zelman, formerly at Credit Suisse, became an internet favorite when she asked Toll Brothers CEO Bob Toll “Which Kool-aid are you drinking?” on the Q4 2006 Toll Brothers conference call.

Thornberg was one of the first (and few) academics to call the bubble in California.

A nominal bottom in housing would be an important step in turning around the US economy. The people who want a slow decline for Canada are completely wrong, the sooner the bottom the better.

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vancouver – 4th most hated city

http://amplicate.com/places/233-top-cities/

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Inventory
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Richmond Detached Inventory

April
2005 = 556
2006 = 448
2007 = 613
2008 = 656
2009 = 670
2010 = 671
2011 = 872

30 Sep 2008 = 1012
20 Apr 2012 = 1021
25 Apr 2012 = 1041

These stats gives a clearer picture.

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Richmond detached Inventory.

30 Sep 2008 = 1012

20 Apr 2012 = 1021

25 Apr 2012 = 1041

Another inventory high!

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patriotz
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@Makaya:
There is no sweet spot. Domestic demand has been driven by rising RE prices, just as it was in the US. Stop the rise in RE prices and domestic demand falls. But of course RE prices will stop rising at some point anyway.

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patriotz
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@900kCrackHouse:
“Homes prices edged down 0.2 per cent in February from the month before but were still 6.1 per cent higher than a year ago, according to a well-watched housing index.”

No, they were 6.1 per cent higher than February 2011.

We might well already be flat or negative YOY, but we’ll have to wait a couple of months to know.

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