Shopping for deals? Vancouver Price Drop.
An Observer has started up a new Vancouver RE blog focused specifically on tracking price drops!
Right now at vancouverpricedrop you’ll find number of asking price drops by area and a ‘top eleven’ list of price drops in the Vancouver and Fraser Valley region.
These drops are all over the map, some have dropped asking price by a million and are still a million over assesment. There are a couple that seem serious though with new asking prices several hundred thousand dollars under assessed value.
It’s fantastic to see a new addition to the Vancouver bubble blog crowd, especially one that is focused on specific data. Looking forward to watching this one in the future!
Here’s that link again: vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com
April 25th, 2012 at 12:20 am 1
$1825/month for CO-OP housing???????????
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/2976972346.html
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April 25th, 2012 at 3:02 am 2
A familiar (to us) message from someone who’s not a RE commentator:
Gwynne Dyer – China’s Impending Crash
Ironic that so many people think that Chinese money makes the Vancouver RE market immune from downturns, when it’s becoming increasingly apparent that the closer your ties to China the bigger the hit will be.
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April 25th, 2012 at 6:38 am 3
From the article:
“Building a skyscraper is the ultimate expression of economic confidence, and more than half of the 124 skyscrapers currently under construction in the world are being built in China. ”
Does this mean the other half is in Toronto?
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April 25th, 2012 at 6:38 am 4
April is almost over. As the GVREB will release the monthly stats promptly on May 1, we are seeking industry insiders to give factual and unbiased stories of the market. You will not be named and you don’t have to identify yourself. The release is not intended to be biased but to state the facts. In order for this to continue to be more useful to the public than the biased release from REBGV (they are not to be confused with GVREB) we need to have these stories.
I would prefer these to come directly from people in the industry with real stories. The most important is to say what they see is changing. It is the changes that are interesting.
Preferred industries are:
1.) Mortgage Brokers
2.) Bank Mortgage loan officers / credit risk managers
3.) Real estate agents (your factual and unbiased opinions are helpful).
4.) Builders of single family homes (professional or one-off amateurs)
5.) Condo project mass marketing agents (standard or groupon model acceptable)
6.) Helicopter Pilots (preferred if colour is yellow).
I hope I am allowed to post the contact here. Press release will be completed on Sunday night so please send your stories as soon as possible so they can be vetted for truth.
contact is
gvreb1 – at – gmail – dot – com
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April 25th, 2012 at 7:41 am 5
February Teranet numbers out:
Vancouver
m/m: -0.32%
y/y: +6.20%
year to date: -0.58%
M/m -0.32% transforms into -3.84% annually. If the trend continues (and year-to-date number supports this hipotesis so far), it may take a year or so to see the negative y/y numbers unless the panic spreads on price reductions.
Victoria is in a free fall
m/m: -1.09%
y/y crossed into a negative territory: -1.65%
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April 25th, 2012 at 9:39 am 6
Here is an interesting video about the GFC and derivatives.
Part of the video is about the RE boom and subsequent bust in Georgia and a fight of the “housing lobby” against a law that was passed there to limit predatory lending in that State.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04/money-power-wall-street-full-episode/
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April 25th, 2012 at 9:42 am 7
I thought vancouverCONDO.info is supposed to be about condos!? There is way too much non-condo info on here.
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April 25th, 2012 at 11:04 am 8
Interesting that it is about 1 month before the price is initially reduced, or listing taken down.
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April 25th, 2012 at 11:06 am 9
@Devore: I see the start date for the data is March 9, so that’s what’s going on
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April 25th, 2012 at 11:09 am 10
CMHC set to be under OSFI supervision?
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/25/cmhc-set-to-be-under-osfi-supervision/
Carney urges caution as house prices outrun income
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/24/carney-house-price-to-income-ratio-outstrips-norm-by-35/
So is Carney saying that Canada’s housing market is 35% overvalued?
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April 25th, 2012 at 11:31 am 11
@Manna from heaven: It was carney that reduce the interest rate to 1% to help his buddies over at Bay Street. The ultra low interest rate did not help Bay Street, it went to fuel the housing bubble even more. Now that the bubble is starting to burst, he is crying wolf and trying to distance himself from it. He is also looking to jump ship to Bank of England. Bon Voyage!
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April 25th, 2012 at 12:17 pm 12
@gLOO: Awwww, so sorry you’re unhappy with the content here, you should ask for a refund!
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April 25th, 2012 at 12:20 pm 13
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/04/bank-of-canada-house-price-to-income-ratio-outstrips-norm-by-35.html
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April 25th, 2012 at 12:38 pm 14
@VanRant:
When the US dropped interest rates in 2008, the BoC had to follow suit or see the complete collapse of the Canadian auto industry and most other manufacturing in the country due to a high dollar.
The Conservative government decided to use the low interest rates to fuel a housing/consumer debt bubble to produce a bogus “recovery”. If they had not done so the RE/consumer sector would have taken a hit – as it should have – but the real economy would have been done just as well and perhaps better.
So it was a matter of one move that was unavoidable in practical terms and another that was not only avoidable but opportunistic and self-serving.
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April 25th, 2012 at 12:55 pm 15
@patriotz: From what I see the juicing of the housing market via CMHC was seen by the government as an efficient and quick way of shovelling credit into the economy, first by allowing people to consolidate debts under rock bottom interest rates, second by eliciting sales activity that results in immediate extra consumption due to transaction costs, furniture purchases, and other renovations.
Infrastructure spending through the “Canadian Action Plan” was not what pulled Canada out of the doldrums initially: most of the spending took place in 2010 and 2011, not 2009. The surge in mortgage credit, OTOH, started having immediate effect starting in the spring of 2009.
My guess is they knew what they were doing but underestimated the magnitude of land speculation that occurred as a result. Further, I think they were caught flat-footed when it became obvious CMHC lending regulation changes were losing their potency and they were about 2 years too late in mobilizing OSFI to rein in the low ratio mortgage market. Now Carney is having to play rearguard by causing medium term yields to spike while they wait for broad-based credit curbs to be implemented.
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April 25th, 2012 at 1:12 pm 16
15 jesse Says: “My guess is they knew what they were doing but underestimated the magnitude of land speculation that occurred as a result.”
The hurdle for that argument is an HPI clearly exploding in 2006, the first year of Harper government, not the year of the turn down. The other hurdle is not seeing wind downs in CMHC policy until after trading a minority for a majority win. I think you’re being far too generous regarding intent.
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April 25th, 2012 at 1:25 pm 17
@crashcow: that means we are all going to get 35% raises! YIPEE!
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April 25th, 2012 at 2:25 pm 18
Nice! VancouverSun.com top news story:
Vancouver home prices fall for fifth-consecutive month
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/mortgages/Vancouver+home+prices+fall+fifth+consecutive+month/6517076/story.html
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April 25th, 2012 at 2:36 pm 19
Bubble watchers set to eye Canadian housing data
“He also has warned that home prices in some cities are “extremely firm,” and that there are “issues” in some segments of the market. While he wasn’t more specific, Mr. Carney surely meant the Toronto condo market, now the epicentre for fears about a jarring correction, just as Vancouver was playing that role a year ago when he travelled to the Western city to warn in a speech about “extreme” pricing fuelled by foreign speculators.”
The story is changing again? Now it’s all HAM’s fault again?
“Even as rising rates would likely mean lower home prices, the hope among economists pushing for hikes is that a small rate increase or two over the next six or eight months would cool the market without crippling it, and would nudge borrowers to rein in their spending, but slowly and gradually enough that the domestic demand driving growth doesn’t fall off a cliff.
Already this week, there have been reminders of how elusive that sweet spot may prove to be. On Tuesday, the Conference Board of Canada said consumer confidence is plunging this month, as families worry about their job prospects and their financial well-being. Plus, after a Tuesday’s disappointing retail sales report for February, many economists said Mr. Carney’s estimate of a 2.5-per cent annual growth rate in the first quarter may be too optimistic. And then there’s Europe…”
So don’t put too much hope on rate hikes in the near future…
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April 25th, 2012 at 2:39 pm 20
@900kCrackHouse:
“Homes prices edged down 0.2 per cent in February from the month before but were still 6.1 per cent higher than a year ago, according to a well-watched housing index.”
No, they were 6.1 per cent higher than February 2011.
We might well already be flat or negative YOY, but we’ll have to wait a couple of months to know.
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April 25th, 2012 at 2:43 pm 21
@Makaya:
There is no sweet spot. Domestic demand has been driven by rising RE prices, just as it was in the US. Stop the rise in RE prices and domestic demand falls. But of course RE prices will stop rising at some point anyway.
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April 25th, 2012 at 2:53 pm 22
Richmond detached Inventory.
30 Sep 2008 = 1012
20 Apr 2012 = 1021
25 Apr 2012 = 1041
Another inventory high!
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April 25th, 2012 at 3:14 pm 23
Richmond Detached Inventory
April
2005 = 556
2006 = 448
2007 = 613
2008 = 656
2009 = 670
2010 = 671
2011 = 872
30 Sep 2008 = 1012
20 Apr 2012 = 1021
25 Apr 2012 = 1041
These stats gives a clearer picture.
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April 25th, 2012 at 4:18 pm 24
vancouver – 4th most hated city
http://amplicate.com/places/233-top-cities/
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April 25th, 2012 at 4:22 pm 25
Former bears calling bottom in US:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/housing-bottom-callers-zelman-thornberg.html
Thornberg was one of the first (and few) academics to call the bubble in California.
A nominal bottom in housing would be an important step in turning around the US economy. The people who want a slow decline for Canada are completely wrong, the sooner the bottom the better.
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April 25th, 2012 at 4:27 pm 26
@Inventory: Do we all remember Richmond a year ago? http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/04/24/its-over/
That city has been dead for a year and here we sit with record for-sale inventory, the benchmark price is still as high as ever.
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April 25th, 2012 at 4:35 pm 27
@jesse:
They were told that “smart investor” must be patient, and market will eventually reverse. Good luck with that this time.
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April 25th, 2012 at 4:49 pm 28
@jesse:
But if we look at median price…
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April 25th, 2012 at 6:00 pm 29
@gLOO:
“vancouver – 4th most hated city”
The comments on there are priceless.
All about what a useless bunch of cretins Vancouverites are.
So very true, the worst people on the planet.
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April 25th, 2012 at 6:16 pm 30
New Listings 292
Price Changes 130
Sold Listings 162
TI:17279
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca weekly stats are updated
paulboenisch@gmail.com
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April 25th, 2012 at 6:24 pm 31
@paulb.:
Thus far in April…
2012 vs 2011
Sales: approx equal
New Lists: approx +15%
Sale/List ratio: 48% vs 55% (decrease of 7%)
(last year’s daily stats had some gaps, which I interpolated)
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April 25th, 2012 at 6:44 pm 32
@patriotz: It took 14 to 18 months for falling prices to actually sink in with the general public in Australia. Based on my observations of press article comments.
So, based on Teranet, you have at least a year before sentiment shifts in Canada.
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April 25th, 2012 at 6:45 pm 33
@VMD: Nice catch. That’s a nosedive.
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April 25th, 2012 at 6:48 pm 34
@patriotz: When the credit party in Canada Australia and China run out, the u.s. has another dip coming in prices. Not one large enough to make someone locking in crazy insane low rates for an entire 30 years to worry about, however. (Wait, it’s a great time to buy a house? Did I say that?)
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April 25th, 2012 at 8:46 pm 35
I moved here from London (born and raised)about 18 years ago and, shortly after that, home prices tripled in my home city. No doubt, people made a lot of money very quickly and I do get quite upset to see how many people I know there have investment properties. At this time, Brits became confident and started investing in property on a large scale in countries like Spain – a little like the speculation we are seeing here. We all know what position Spain is in.
My point is that creating personal wealth through rampant speculation often ends badly produces leaves collateral damage in its wake.
On a final note, as of today, the UK is officially in a double dip recession for the first time since the 70’s and “no man is an island.”
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April 25th, 2012 at 9:09 pm 36
Great article from Macleans on the CMHC changes coming (tomorrow?):
The under-the-radar changes that may soon deflate (or pop) the housing bubble
“Given that CMHC now accounts for half the mortgage market, it’s fair to say that a rationing of their credit is a very big deal. This is a hard stop if ever I’ve seen one…”
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/04/23/the-under-the-radar-changes-that-may-soon-deflate-or-pop-the-housing-bubble/
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April 25th, 2012 at 9:13 pm 37
From the Macleans article:
“Putting CMHC into OSFI hands may well represent a greater tightening of credit than Flaherty could have done by shortening amortization lengths or increasing down payments. OSFI regulators, in fact, have gone public on several occasions to express concerns about underwriting standards in Canada. Expect significant changes to happen, though likely behind the scenes.
As an aside, this would represent a pretty cowardly move on the part of Flaherty and the Harper Conservatives who very clearly recognize the risks baked into the housing market, want it to cool, but also want the blame to fall on someone else should the “soft landing” turn into a bust. This may well be political cowardice at its finest.”
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April 25th, 2012 at 9:27 pm 38
Coquitlam numbers from Larry Yatter are very bearish.
Sales down and prices took a bog tumble:
http://www.yattermatters.com/
Average and Median Price Scores
It’s uncertain whether Coquitlam home sellers will turn in their seasons tickets as they watch Average Asking prices for sold properties drop from Feb/Mar’s $785,662 to Mar/Apr’s $762,789.
Median Ask prices for sold properties in Feb/Mar crossed the center line at $777,800 only to be slammed into the boards as Mar/Apr recorded $739,000.
Average Sold prices in Feb/Mar’s $774,915 came out from behind the net but were cross checked as Mar/Apr recorded the hit at $749,417.
A slap shot sent Feb/Mar’s Median Sold price of $766,355, clear of the net and above the glass to record $734,950 in Mar/Apr.
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April 25th, 2012 at 9:27 pm 39
‘big’ tumble! (ha!) into the bog…
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April 25th, 2012 at 9:34 pm 40
Copied from PaulB’s number
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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April 25th, 2012 at 9:37 pm 41
Expected sales 2,906 is on the way to beat the lowest sales (2963 in 2009) in 10 years
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April 26th, 2012 at 3:26 am 42
@Anonymous:
“This may well be political cowardice at its finest.”
Note also the finger-pointing at immigrants from Kenney and Con apologists like Diane Francis.
The buck doesn’t stop with Steve. Not if he can help it.
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April 26th, 2012 at 6:03 am 43
37 Anonymous Says: As an aside, this would represent a pretty cowardly move on the part of Flaherty and the Harper Conservatives who very clearly recognize the risks baked into the housing market, want it to cool…”
What a great, great, great illustration of Machiavellian inside politics. This government clearly pushed the country to the economic brink for party gains and came up with an arcane, submerged, comprehensible to politicos only means of creating politically expedient plausible deniability. If only they turned those admirable powers to our global advantage instead of inward for their own.
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April 26th, 2012 at 12:14 pm 44
@fixie guy: ….This government clearly pushed the country to the economic brink for party gains and came up with an arcane, submerged, comprehensible to politicos only means of creating politically expedient plausible dependability….
Not to mention the explosion in crop circles, cattle mutilations, and illicit trade in tin foil hats.
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