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Guest
JJ
3 years 9 months ago

There is another element to this. The intense allocation of resources into the bubble industries (FIRE) empowers them. The tail-end of a private housing boom is followed by immense pressure by those industries on government to keep them employed. In the USA bubble areas have seen the construction and usury, sorry, debt lobbies push muni governments into financing and building gigantic convention centers and the like. So prepare for much talk in Vancouver about how our current stock of convention centers is insufficient to compete with Seattle or whomever. The builders and banks have incredible power over governments.

Guest
jumpin in
3 years 9 months ago
Member
Ravishing Rick
3 years 9 months ago

Cut the music!

Hey paulb…Add Luongo’s house to the inventory statistics!

Hit the organ music!

Member
VHB
3 years 9 months ago

Just checked the VW SFH inventory on public MLS. Over the 900 mark at 901! Only 99 more to get to the big 1K level where fun stuff really starts to happen.

Member
VHB
3 years 9 months ago

Hmm. I think I smell a 400 listing day on Monday.

Guest
fixie guy
3 years 9 months ago

It’s also missing the first half of the story; the political advantage when those jobs, unsustainable as they inevitably must be, are added to the economy. Canada’s still on left hand side of the curve.

Guest
Banker
3 years 9 months ago

@fixie guy: “It’s also missing the first half of the story; the political advantage when those jobs, unsustainable as they inevitably must be, are added to the economy.”

Bingo. Then the last part is what happens when those jobs evaporate. Not good for political careers. The reason why they try to avoid the inevitable correction.

Guest
frank
3 years 9 months ago

Anyone have a link to that inventory chart chart, so we can see where we have got to?

Member
specialfx3000
3 years 9 months ago

The hype at the beginning of the season all the way to winning the President’s trophy. The stage is set. Barrels of booze ordered. Extra restaurant staffing lined up. ‘Stanley Cup winners’ shirts printed. Mayor Moonbeam more prepared; riot police on standby. Then ‘pop’!

Housing market, you’re next.

Guest
MR
3 years 9 months ago

Not to rehash an old post regarding racism and ethnic marketing, but has anyone heard about the “Mandarin Residences” in Richmond? I opened up my local weekly paper, and out pops a brochure for Rennie Marketing’s latest development in Richmond by the sky train. It was a wonderful ad, listing the exact minutes to each Vancouver locale – 4 minutes to Aberdeen mall, 11 to the YVR, 23 to Yaletown, and of course pictures of happy Chinese families. Now I don’t know about you, but buying into a place called “Mandarin Residences” seems to imply a certain something about the… Read more »

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 9 months ago

@MR: You’re missing one. The Ritz, for all those “crackers” out there.

Guest
Simple
3 years 9 months ago

Now that the downturn seems all but inevitable, lets try an experiment. You may have heard of the “wisdom of crowds” – the idea that while any individuals guess may be far from the true answer, the median of all guesses within a crowd is likely to be close to the right answer.

So, what do you think the “peak-to-trough” drop will be in the Vancouver SF detached market?

Lets see how wise this group is.

I will kick things off with a guess of 37%

Guest
Patriotz' No.1 Fan
3 years 9 months ago

Here is a question for some of you. How is it possible that a developer (Polygon) can get away with building a building without floors that end with 4. (I presume 4 is the dreaded unlucky number for the Chinese, correct?) For example, in the highrise I am renting, there are no 4th, (13th), 14th and 24th floor. This is so misleading. If you live on the 27th floor, you are actually living on 23rd. To me that appears to be quite a difference. Isn’t there some law against this misrepresentation? Why not just skip a 100 floors and pretend… Read more »

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 9 months ago

@Simple:
These are my predictions from the article I wrote (see Friday Free for All comment section):

Vancouver: -55%, Winnipeg: -54%, Calgary: -52%, Toronto: -47%, Ottawa: -41% and Montréal: -35%

Guest
Mick Murphy
3 years 9 months ago

@Patriotz’ No.1 Fan: some buildings don’t have 13th floor due to christian superstitions.

i suggest you don’t worry about it. otherwise people can accuse you ave being petty.

Guest
fixie guy
3 years 9 months ago

13 Simple Says:“You may have heard of the “wisdom of crowds” …”

Nope, but I have heard of the madness of crowds:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds

Re: your question, the immigration burst caused by Hong Kong’s repatriation in the mid-Nineties prevented Vancouver fully correcting from the nationwide bubble earlier in the decade. Real prices only had time to shed 25% of both gains before the next bubble took hold.
Throw that in, plus some small variance for the general beneficial effect of all that HELOC money on housing stock, and my guess is real prices will be around 40% of today’s when the music finally stops.

jesse
Member
3 years 9 months ago

@Patriotz’ No.1 Fan: If you can’t count the buttons in the elevator there is little we can do for you. 😉

jesse
Member
3 years 9 months ago

Rabidoux has an interesting post on residential investment bubbles and provincial finances:

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/how-might-canadian-housing-correction-weigh-provinces

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 9 months ago

@jesse: from Ben’s article… “There are parallels to BC’s predicament, the best and most chilling one is that of Spain. Several years ago Spain had the following: large trade deficit, dependency on construction employment, foreign capital investment (vacation homes), and relatively benign government debt. Now Spain has: severe construction recession, ballooning government debt, high unemployment, insolvent banks. BC looks awfully similar to Spain a few years ago and my fear is that it is in danger of being hamstrung by a slowdown in construction activity due to lower dwelling formation. With household debt levels already near a point of no… Read more »

Member
vangrl
3 years 9 months ago

42%

Member
specialfx3000
3 years 9 months ago

http://www.news1130.com/news/national/article/354076–immigrants-will-need-to-prove-they-speak-english-or-french

I hope this gets implemented.

Whether this is another catalyst for a price drop or not, it’s great news that something is being done to ensure immigrants want to integrate and be part of this country. Too many want to take advantage of the benefits of being Canadian but disrespect the privileges of being Canadian.

I respect my Chinese heritage but I am a grateful English-speaking Canadian.

Guest
BoogyBear
3 years 9 months ago

The suite numbering is regulated by the fire department for safety reasons in smoked filled corridors. I don’t know if the floor numbering is though. I suppose instructing a ladder truck’s crew to rescue someone on the fifth floor might be a problem. Not many ladder trucks can get up to the 13th floor, so it wasn’t really an issue before. Most of the superstitions have been dropped from our society now, so you now have 13th floors in buildings. It could be a safety issue.

Guest
BoogyBear
3 years 9 months ago

The developer may sell those 4th floor suites as fifth floor units. But after they are sold, the fire department can order all of the suites to be re-numbered. So, you could get screwed over if your worried about the number 4.

jesse
Member
3 years 9 months ago

@Makaya: What kind of idiot wrote that? Oh wait I think I did.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 9 months ago

@jesse: lol… Good job!

Member
paintedturtle
3 years 9 months ago

@Patriotz’ No.1 Fan And the next step is to remove all burial sites to satisfy some Chinese supersitions… We are walking on the head. Removing the 4th floor means you remove the idea that people who are not superstitious will not be living in the building. Shocking. And I would say it is a racist act from developers, because they contribute to depict the Chinese community as superstitious, therefore creating stereotypes. As for the Mandarin building, Rennie’s genius is the orange colour in the ad: he can always claim he meant the fruit, like the building could as well be… Read more »

Guest
WFT?
3 years 9 months ago

@specialfx3000:

Agreed.

Immigrants that need translation serices are a huge drain on the public purse. In the legal system, trials double in length when an english challenged immigrant is involved. Why should taxpayers pay for this? If they won’t go to the effort to learn the language of the country they come to, they should pay the thousands of dollarts required to get their legal proceedings translated.

My parents immigrated and they learned english well enough not to put the taxpayer to unnecessary expense. New immigrants should do the same. Its common sense.

Guest
McLovin
3 years 9 months ago

40%

Guest
Kosta
3 years 9 months ago

@specialfx3000: They will be asked to submit evidence that they completed secondary or post-secondary education in English or French; they could also provide results of approved third-party tests, or proof of success in government-funded language training programs. Now they will have their famous immigration consultants becoming English or French language problem specialists. Specializing in obtaining fake diplomas, test proofs, etc. Farce will continue at the same pace until immigrant gets an serious English test (interview and written) in the embassy, conducted by Canadians. This is just another requirement for a “smart immigrant” to find the way to screw Canada. btw.… Read more »

jesse
Member
3 years 9 months ago

@patriotz: The rules are to do with citizenship, not immigration intake. It’s possible for someone to maintain PR status indefinitely without official language proficiency.

Guest
N
3 years 9 months ago

@patriotz:

“Consolidate your debts into one low monthly payment. Renovate your home. Start a business. Or even go on a holiday.”

How about all four at once. Now that’s a Lifestyle.

VMD
Member
3 years 9 months ago

Just got approached by another Vancouver-based Chinese RE site to be its columnist, lol. Basically allowing them to use my forum posts in their news cast, while acknowledging me at the end (no pay..) . Since when did the Chinese media become interested in bearish RE news?

I better try to compile a more comprehensive spreadsheet…

(last year’s paulB daily stats will be nice, but VancouverPeak only has up to May/June… Also, any other sources of stats will be very much appreciated!)

Can contact me at greaterfoolvancouver(at)gmail.com :)

Guy Smiley
Member
Guy Smiley
3 years 9 months ago

Haha. That Alpine Credits add is priceless. The home looks absolutely terrified and i think that might be a noose he is swinging from:)

Guest
Vansanity
3 years 9 months ago

Overheard a couple at lunch talking about New West prices collapsing… some guy who lost $40k another who lost $10k thus far with a place that’s still on market for months without sale… so $10k and counting… not to mention carrying costs.

Here’s the kicker… same breath they’re both talking about their new places, one in lower mainland condo and the other a place on the sunshine coast. Not a thought seemed to cross their mind… holy fuck, people really do whistle past the graveyard don’t they?

jesse
Member
3 years 9 months ago

@VMD: We have a high degree of certainty of the final monthly sales and newlist levels by the first 5-7 working days into a month. Armed with that you can use paulb.’s dailies going forward with good confidence as a month-end predictor, and use REBGV reported average daily numbers from previous years (take total sales and new lists and divide by the number of working days in the month) as a baseline.

Laibach
Member
Laibach
3 years 9 months ago

@Vansanity:

And losses that these guys are bitching about are just small, negligible, trivial losses, almost like operating costs in the long run. It would be interesting to hear them talking when their current losses gets multiplied by 10, 20, 30…

Guest
Mick Murphy
3 years 9 months ago
Guest
space889
3 years 9 months ago

@Makaya: What about all those crappy condos that will need to be patched, repaired for shoddy constructions and leaks?? Wouldn’t that help buffer the inevitable downturn? How the owners will find the money to pay for the repairs, I don’t know yet. But if a building is leaking and leaking fairly badly due to bad construction, with leaking pipes, HVAC that breaks regularly, etc, you can’t exactly avoid repairs.

Guest
Yalie
3 years 9 months ago

@Guy Smiley:

Haha. That Alpine Credits add is priceless. The home looks absolutely terrified and i think that might be a noose he is swinging from:)

I had a different interpretation: to me it looks like a man trapped in his home, which incidentally is falling (in value?), as he desperately hangs on by a thread.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 9 months ago

@space889: With the CDR’s that are required it will just compound the problems for condos as there will be no running from the issues.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
3 years 9 months ago

@VMD: I think you’ll find most middle class asians are more than happy to hear about bearish news so they don’t get caught with their pants down. Losing money in real estate bubbles is (from my experience) an asian pop culture theme and something many asians are quite keen to avoid (even as they are part of the problem, a strange paradox). Re: English and French. Many young immigrants to Canada that I’ve spoken to have perfectly serviceable, if accented, English. Those who don’t aren’t serious about staying here, in my experience. Meanwhile, written English by non-immigrant North Americans is… Read more »

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 9 months ago
Guest
oneangryslav2
3 years 9 months ago

@Simple: This is Vancouver, right? 44.4% (in nominal terms).

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 9 months ago

@WFT?: “Immigrants that need translation serices are a huge drain on the public purse. In the legal system, trials double in length when an english challenged immigrant is involved. Why should taxpayers pay for this? If they won’t go to the effort to learn the language of the country they come to, they should pay the thousands of dollarts required to get their legal proceedings translated. ” So what happens with a non-English-speaking immigrant is wrongly accused of a crime, and subsequently acquitted at trial? You think it’s fair that they should be out of pocket for tens of thousands… Read more »

Guest
Demo
3 years 9 months ago

If I were you, I would worry more about uni-lingual Canadians, especially those with already poor spoken and written first language skills, being at a disadvantage as a large proportion of new immigrant Canadians I meet today are dual or even tri-lingual. _________ I really don’t think that you anecdotal experiences translate into the larger immigrant population’s experience. Statistically, new immigrants are taking much longer to achieve the average wage, largely because of their lack of English language skills. Compare the current cohort of immigrants to those of the 1970s, and even when accounting for the same country of origin,… Read more »

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 9 months ago

@patriotz: “Nothing to do with the story, but did anyone else check out this prominent ad on the web page:”

Not me – not everybody will get the same ads.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Targeted_advertising

Guest
WFT?
3 years 9 months ago

@Anonymous:

“So what happens with a non-English-speaking immigrant is wrongly accused of a crime, and subsequently acquitted at trial? You think it’s fair that they should be out of pocket for tens of thousands of dollars due to the no fault of their own?”

Well, I guess they should have learned english. You’ve proved my point.

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