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JJ
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JJ

There is another element to this. The intense allocation of resources into the bubble industries (FIRE) empowers them. The tail-end of a private housing boom is followed by immense pressure by those industries on government to keep them employed. In the USA bubble areas have seen the construction and usury, sorry, debt lobbies push muni governments into financing and building gigantic convention centers and the like. So prepare for much talk in Vancouver about how our current stock of convention centers is insufficient to compete with Seattle or whomever. The builders and banks have incredible power over governments.

jumpin in
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jumpin in
Ravishing Rick
Member
Ravishing Rick

Cut the music!

Hey paulb…Add Luongo’s house to the inventory statistics!

Hit the organ music!

VHB
Member
VHB

Just checked the VW SFH inventory on public MLS. Over the 900 mark at 901! Only 99 more to get to the big 1K level where fun stuff really starts to happen.

VHB
Member
VHB

Hmm. I think I smell a 400 listing day on Monday.

registered
Member
registered

It’s also missing the first half of the story; the political advantage when those jobs, unsustainable as they inevitably must be, are added to the economy. Canada’s still on left hand side of the curve.

Banker
Guest
Banker

@fixie guy: “It’s also missing the first half of the story; the political advantage when those jobs, unsustainable as they inevitably must be, are added to the economy.”

Bingo. Then the last part is what happens when those jobs evaporate. Not good for political careers. The reason why they try to avoid the inevitable correction.

frank
Guest
frank

Anyone have a link to that inventory chart chart, so we can see where we have got to?

specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000

The hype at the beginning of the season all the way to winning the President’s trophy. The stage is set. Barrels of booze ordered. Extra restaurant staffing lined up. ‘Stanley Cup winners’ shirts printed. Mayor Moonbeam more prepared; riot police on standby. Then ‘pop’!

Housing market, you’re next.

MR
Guest
MR
Not to rehash an old post regarding racism and ethnic marketing, but has anyone heard about the “Mandarin Residences” in Richmond? I opened up my local weekly paper, and out pops a brochure for Rennie Marketing’s latest development in Richmond by the sky train. It was a wonderful ad, listing the exact minutes to each Vancouver locale – 4 minutes to Aberdeen mall, 11 to the YVR, 23 to Yaletown, and of course pictures of happy Chinese families. Now I don’t know about you, but buying into a place called “Mandarin Residences” seems to imply a certain something about the buyer. It is not hard to tell which group of buyers they are targeting. Why is the media so shocked when people blame “rich Chinese” for high prices when developers target that supposed demographic so blatantly. This type of marketing… Read more »
Anonymous
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Anonymous

@MR: You’re missing one. The Ritz, for all those “crackers” out there.

Simple
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Simple

Now that the downturn seems all but inevitable, lets try an experiment. You may have heard of the “wisdom of crowds” – the idea that while any individuals guess may be far from the true answer, the median of all guesses within a crowd is likely to be close to the right answer.

So, what do you think the “peak-to-trough” drop will be in the Vancouver SF detached market?

Lets see how wise this group is.

I will kick things off with a guess of 37%

Patriotz' No.1 Fan
Guest
Patriotz' No.1 Fan
Here is a question for some of you. How is it possible that a developer (Polygon) can get away with building a building without floors that end with 4. (I presume 4 is the dreaded unlucky number for the Chinese, correct?) For example, in the highrise I am renting, there are no 4th, (13th), 14th and 24th floor. This is so misleading. If you live on the 27th floor, you are actually living on 23rd. To me that appears to be quite a difference. Isn’t there some law against this misrepresentation? Why not just skip a 100 floors and pretend the building has 130 floors in stead of 30? Is this common practice and how come now one has brought this up in the media or otherwise? Also, how is this not inducing a certain degree of racial differentiation with… Read more »
Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Simple:
These are my predictions from the article I wrote (see Friday Free for All comment section):

Vancouver: -55%, Winnipeg: -54%, Calgary: -52%, Toronto: -47%, Ottawa: -41% and Montréal: -35%

Mick Murphy
Guest
Mick Murphy

@Patriotz’ No.1 Fan: some buildings don’t have 13th floor due to christian superstitions.

i suggest you don’t worry about it. otherwise people can accuse you ave being petty.

registered
Member
registered

13 Simple Says:“You may have heard of the “wisdom of crowds” …”

Nope, but I have heard of the madness of crowds:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds

Re: your question, the immigration burst caused by Hong Kong’s repatriation in the mid-Nineties prevented Vancouver fully correcting from the nationwide bubble earlier in the decade. Real prices only had time to shed 25% of both gains before the next bubble took hold.
Throw that in, plus some small variance for the general beneficial effect of all that HELOC money on housing stock, and my guess is real prices will be around 40% of today’s when the music finally stops.

jesse
Member

@Patriotz’ No.1 Fan: If you can’t count the buttons in the elevator there is little we can do for you. 😉

jesse
Member

Rabidoux has an interesting post on residential investment bubbles and provincial finances:

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/how-might-canadian-housing-correction-weigh-provinces

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@jesse: from Ben’s article…

“There are parallels to BC’s predicament, the best and most chilling one is that of Spain. Several years ago Spain had the following: large trade deficit, dependency on construction employment, foreign capital investment (vacation homes), and relatively benign government debt. Now Spain has: severe construction recession, ballooning government debt, high unemployment, insolvent banks. BC looks awfully similar to Spain a few years ago and my fear is that it is in danger of being hamstrung by a slowdown in construction activity due to lower dwelling formation. With household debt levels already near a point of no return, there aren’t many options left to fill the void save substantial foreign investment and government spending, both of which are not guaranteed to continue ad infinitum.”

vangrl
Member
vangrl

42%

specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000

http://www.news1130.com/news/national/article/354076–immigrants-will-need-to-prove-they-speak-english-or-french

I hope this gets implemented.

Whether this is another catalyst for a price drop or not, it’s great news that something is being done to ensure immigrants want to integrate and be part of this country. Too many want to take advantage of the benefits of being Canadian but disrespect the privileges of being Canadian.

I respect my Chinese heritage but I am a grateful English-speaking Canadian.

BoogyBear
Guest
BoogyBear

The suite numbering is regulated by the fire department for safety reasons in smoked filled corridors. I don’t know if the floor numbering is though. I suppose instructing a ladder truck’s crew to rescue someone on the fifth floor might be a problem. Not many ladder trucks can get up to the 13th floor, so it wasn’t really an issue before. Most of the superstitions have been dropped from our society now, so you now have 13th floors in buildings. It could be a safety issue.

BoogyBear
Guest
BoogyBear

The developer may sell those 4th floor suites as fifth floor units. But after they are sold, the fire department can order all of the suites to be re-numbered. So, you could get screwed over if your worried about the number 4.

jesse
Member

@Makaya: What kind of idiot wrote that? Oh wait I think I did.

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