Why Bubbles are Bad

Another great post by Piggington. Apply it to you know where.

The bubble beneficiary sectors, so named because they grew like weeds as a result of the housing boom, are: construction, finance (which includes real estate transactions), and retail (not directly related to housing like the other two, but a bubble beneficiary nonetheless as a result of vigorous home equity-financed consumer spending). In the graphs below, I have grouped these three sectors together as the “Housing Bubble Sectors” and charted the change in their size alongside that of the non-bubble private sector industries and government.

Graph

Those excess jobs are gone for good, now that the bubble is no longer with us. They never should have existed to begin with. We would have been far better off if all the labor and resources that were squandered on the housing bubble were instead put to uses that could have generated a sustainable increase in society’s long-term prosperity. As a bonus, we would have avoided a big crash, too.

Why Bubbles are Bad

Of course, virtually ALL of the employment growth in Canada since the 2008 recession has been in the bubble beneficiary sectors.

110 Responses to “Why Bubbles are Bad”

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    There is another element to this. The intense allocation of resources into the bubble industries (FIRE) empowers them. The tail-end of a private housing boom is followed by immense pressure by those industries on government to keep them employed. In the USA bubble areas have seen the construction and usury, sorry, debt lobbies push muni governments into financing and building gigantic convention centers and the like. So prepare for much talk in Vancouver about how our current stock of convention centers is insufficient to compete with Seattle or whomever. The builders and banks have incredible power over governments.

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    Ravishing Rick Says:
    3

    Cut the music!

    Hey paulb…Add Luongo’s house to the inventory statistics!

    Hit the organ music!

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    Just checked the VW SFH inventory on public MLS. Over the 900 mark at 901! Only 99 more to get to the big 1K level where fun stuff really starts to happen.

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    Hmm. I think I smell a 400 listing day on Monday.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    6

    @jumpin in:
    He forget to mention the other country where the growth in the 20-44 age group greatly exceeds the OECD average.

    The United States.

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    fixie guy Says:
    7

    It’s also missing the first half of the story; the political advantage when those jobs, unsustainable as they inevitably must be, are added to the economy. Canada’s still on left hand side of the curve.

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    @fixie guy: “It’s also missing the first half of the story; the political advantage when those jobs, unsustainable as they inevitably must be, are added to the economy.”

    Bingo. Then the last part is what happens when those jobs evaporate. Not good for political careers. The reason why they try to avoid the inevitable correction.

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    Anyone have a link to that inventory chart chart, so we can see where we have got to?

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    specialfx3000 Says:
    10

    The hype at the beginning of the season all the way to winning the President’s trophy. The stage is set. Barrels of booze ordered. Extra restaurant staffing lined up. ‘Stanley Cup winners’ shirts printed. Mayor Moonbeam more prepared; riot police on standby. Then ‘pop’!

    Housing market, you’re next.

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    Not to rehash an old post regarding racism and ethnic marketing, but has anyone heard about the “Mandarin Residences” in Richmond?

    I opened up my local weekly paper, and out pops a brochure for Rennie Marketing’s latest development in Richmond by the sky train. It was a wonderful ad, listing the exact minutes to each Vancouver locale – 4 minutes to Aberdeen mall, 11 to the YVR, 23 to Yaletown, and of course pictures of happy Chinese families.

    Now I don’t know about you, but buying into a place called “Mandarin Residences” seems to imply a certain something about the buyer. It is not hard to tell which group of buyers they are targeting.

    Why is the media so shocked when people blame “rich Chinese” for high prices when developers target that supposed demographic so blatantly. This type of marketing perpetuates that perception and it really reinforces the ethnic self segregation in this city.

    If we really want to head down that path, then guess I will just wait until Rennie creates other ethnic building like the “Celtic Residences,” the “Farsi Residences,” or the “Hindi Residences.”

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    Anonymous Says:
    12

    @MR: You’re missing one. The Ritz, for all those “crackers” out there.

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    Now that the downturn seems all but inevitable, lets try an experiment. You may have heard of the “wisdom of crowds” – the idea that while any individuals guess may be far from the true answer, the median of all guesses within a crowd is likely to be close to the right answer.

    So, what do you think the “peak-to-trough” drop will be in the Vancouver SF detached market?

    Lets see how wise this group is.

    I will kick things off with a guess of 37%

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    Patriotz' No.1 Fan Says:
    14

    Here is a question for some of you.

    How is it possible that a developer (Polygon) can get away with building a building without floors that end with 4. (I presume 4 is the dreaded unlucky number for the Chinese, correct?)

    For example, in the highrise I am renting, there are no 4th, (13th), 14th and 24th floor. This is so misleading. If you live on the 27th floor, you are actually living on 23rd. To me that appears to be quite a difference.

    Isn’t there some law against this misrepresentation? Why not just skip a 100 floors and pretend the building has 130 floors in stead of 30? Is this common practice and how come now one has brought this up in the media or otherwise?

    Also, how is this not inducing a certain degree of racial differentiation with the developer clearly appealing to a particular minority?

    Patriotz’ No.1 Fan

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    @Simple:
    These are my predictions from the article I wrote (see Friday Free for All comment section):

    Vancouver: -55%, Winnipeg: -54%, Calgary: -52%, Toronto: -47%, Ottawa: -41% and Montréal: -35%

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    Mick Murphy Says:
    16

    @Patriotz’ No.1 Fan: some buildings don’t have 13th floor due to christian superstitions.

    i suggest you don’t worry about it. otherwise people can accuse you ave being petty.

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    fixie guy Says:
    17

    13 Simple Says:“You may have heard of the “wisdom of crowds” …”

    Nope, but I have heard of the madness of crowds:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds

    Re: your question, the immigration burst caused by Hong Kong’s repatriation in the mid-Nineties prevented Vancouver fully correcting from the nationwide bubble earlier in the decade. Real prices only had time to shed 25% of both gains before the next bubble took hold.
    Throw that in, plus some small variance for the general beneficial effect of all that HELOC money on housing stock, and my guess is real prices will be around 40% of today’s when the music finally stops.

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    @Patriotz’ No.1 Fan: If you can’t count the buttons in the elevator there is little we can do for you. ;)

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    Rabidoux has an interesting post on residential investment bubbles and provincial finances:

    http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/how-might-canadian-housing-correction-weigh-provinces

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    @jesse: from Ben’s article…

    “There are parallels to BC’s predicament, the best and most chilling one is that of Spain. Several years ago Spain had the following: large trade deficit, dependency on construction employment, foreign capital investment (vacation homes), and relatively benign government debt. Now Spain has: severe construction recession, ballooning government debt, high unemployment, insolvent banks. BC looks awfully similar to Spain a few years ago and my fear is that it is in danger of being hamstrung by a slowdown in construction activity due to lower dwelling formation. With household debt levels already near a point of no return, there aren’t many options left to fill the void save substantial foreign investment and government spending, both of which are not guaranteed to continue ad infinitum.”

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    42%

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    specialfx3000 Says:
    22

    http://www.news1130.com/news/national/article/354076–immigrants-will-need-to-prove-they-speak-english-or-french

    I hope this gets implemented.

    Whether this is another catalyst for a price drop or not, it’s great news that something is being done to ensure immigrants want to integrate and be part of this country. Too many want to take advantage of the benefits of being Canadian but disrespect the privileges of being Canadian.

    I respect my Chinese heritage but I am a grateful English-speaking Canadian.

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    BoogyBear Says:
    23

    The suite numbering is regulated by the fire department for safety reasons in smoked filled corridors. I don’t know if the floor numbering is though. I suppose instructing a ladder truck’s crew to rescue someone on the fifth floor might be a problem. Not many ladder trucks can get up to the 13th floor, so it wasn’t really an issue before. Most of the superstitions have been dropped from our society now, so you now have 13th floors in buildings. It could be a safety issue.

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    BoogyBear Says:
    24

    The developer may sell those 4th floor suites as fifth floor units. But after they are sold, the fire department can order all of the suites to be re-numbered. So, you could get screwed over if your worried about the number 4.

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    @Makaya: What kind of idiot wrote that? Oh wait I think I did.

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    @jesse: lol… Good job!

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    jumpin in Says:
    27

    @Patriotz’ No.1 Fan

    And the next step is to remove all burial sites to satisfy some Chinese supersitions… We are walking on the head. Removing the 4th floor means you remove the idea that people who are not superstitious will not be living in the building. Shocking.
    And I would say it is a racist act from developers, because they contribute to depict the Chinese community as superstitious, therefore creating stereotypes.

    As for the Mandarin building, Rennie’s genius is the orange colour in the ad: he can always claim he meant the fruit, like the building could as well be named Pear or Banana :)

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    @specialfx3000:

    Agreed.

    Immigrants that need translation serices are a huge drain on the public purse. In the legal system, trials double in length when an english challenged immigrant is involved. Why should taxpayers pay for this? If they won’t go to the effort to learn the language of the country they come to, they should pay the thousands of dollarts required to get their legal proceedings translated.

    My parents immigrated and they learned english well enough not to put the taxpayer to unnecessary expense. New immigrants should do the same. Its common sense.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    29

    @specialfx3000:
    The headline is at odds with the body of the story, which refers to requiring English or French ability from those seeking citizenship. That is already the law so it’s an enforcement issue.

    The government has already talked about requiring better language skills of independent immigrants. But it’s already difficult to qualify as an independent without English or French knowledge.

    As for requiring language skills of family class or investor immigrants, I’ll believe it when I see it.

    Once again a lot of talk which translates to little action.

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    McLovin Says:
    30

    40%

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    @specialfx3000:

    They will be asked to submit evidence that they completed secondary or post-secondary education in English or French; they could also provide results of approved third-party tests, or proof of success in government-funded language training programs.

    Now they will have their famous immigration consultants becoming English or French language problem specialists. Specializing in obtaining fake diplomas, test proofs, etc. Farce will continue at the same pace until immigrant gets an serious English test (interview and written) in the embassy, conducted by Canadians. This is just another requirement for a “smart immigrant” to find the way to screw Canada.

    btw. 15 years ago emigrating from Europe as a skilled worker my wife and I had a pretty serious interview where we had to demonstrate fluent English before visa officer. Don’t they interview them in China at all???

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    @patriotz: The rules are to do with citizenship, not immigration intake. It’s possible for someone to maintain PR status indefinitely without official language proficiency.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    33

    @specialfx3000:
    Nothing to do with the story, but did anyone else check out this prominent ad on the web page:

    http://www.alpinecredits.ca/

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    @patriotz:

    “Consolidate your debts into one low monthly payment. Renovate your home. Start a business. Or even go on a holiday.”

    How about all four at once. Now that’s a Lifestyle.

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    Just got approached by another Vancouver-based Chinese RE site to be its columnist, lol. Basically allowing them to use my forum posts in their news cast, while acknowledging me at the end (no pay..) . Since when did the Chinese media become interested in bearish RE news?

    I better try to compile a more comprehensive spreadsheet…

    (last year’s paulB daily stats will be nice, but VancouverPeak only has up to May/June… Also, any other sources of stats will be very much appreciated!)

    Can contact me at greaterfoolvancouver(at)gmail.com :)

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    Guy Smiley Guy Smiley Says:
    36

    Haha. That Alpine Credits add is priceless. The home looks absolutely terrified and i think that might be a noose he is swinging from:)

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    Vansanity Says:
    37

    Overheard a couple at lunch talking about New West prices collapsing… some guy who lost $40k another who lost $10k thus far with a place that’s still on market for months without sale… so $10k and counting… not to mention carrying costs.

    Here’s the kicker… same breath they’re both talking about their new places, one in lower mainland condo and the other a place on the sunshine coast. Not a thought seemed to cross their mind… holy fuck, people really do whistle past the graveyard don’t they?

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    @VMD: We have a high degree of certainty of the final monthly sales and newlist levels by the first 5-7 working days into a month. Armed with that you can use paulb.’s dailies going forward with good confidence as a month-end predictor, and use REBGV reported average daily numbers from previous years (take total sales and new lists and divide by the number of working days in the month) as a baseline.

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    Laibach Laibach Says:
    39

    @Vansanity:

    And losses that these guys are bitching about are just small, negligible, trivial losses, almost like operating costs in the long run. It would be interesting to hear them talking when their current losses gets multiplied by 10, 20, 30…

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    space889 Says:
    41

    @Makaya: What about all those crappy condos that will need to be patched, repaired for shoddy constructions and leaks?? Wouldn’t that help buffer the inevitable downturn? How the owners will find the money to pay for the repairs, I don’t know yet. But if a building is leaking and leaking fairly badly due to bad construction, with leaking pipes, HVAC that breaks regularly, etc, you can’t exactly avoid repairs.

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    @Guy Smiley:

    Haha. That Alpine Credits add is priceless. The home looks absolutely terrified and i think that might be a noose he is swinging from:)

    I had a different interpretation: to me it looks like a man trapped in his home, which incidentally is falling (in value?), as he desperately hangs on by a thread.

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    Anonymous Says:
    43

    @space889: With the CDR’s that are required it will just compound the problems for condos as there will be no running from the issues.

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    Bear Vancouverite Bear Vancouverite Says:
    44

    @VMD: I think you’ll find most middle class asians are more than happy to hear about bearish news so they don’t get caught with their pants down. Losing money in real estate bubbles is (from my experience) an asian pop culture theme and something many asians are quite keen to avoid (even as they are part of the problem, a strange paradox).

    Re: English and French. Many young immigrants to Canada that I’ve spoken to have perfectly serviceable, if accented, English. Those who don’t aren’t serious about staying here, in my experience. Meanwhile, written English by non-immigrant North Americans is alarmingly poor, sometimes on par with the grammar of ESL Canadians. I believe new immigrants should definitely learn working written and spoken knowledge of English (or French), but I don’t worry about new immigrants learning English. If I were you, I would worry more about uni-lingual Canadians, especially those with already poor spoken and written first language skills, being at a disadvantage as a large proportion of new immigrant Canadians I meet today are dual or even tri-lingual.

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    Makaya Makaya Says:
    45

    Another article from our friend Ben…

    The under-the-radar changes that may soon deflate (or pop) the housing bubble

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    oneangryslav2 Says:
    46

    @Simple: This is Vancouver, right? 44.4% (in nominal terms).

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    Anonymous Says:
    47

    @WFT?:

    “Immigrants that need translation serices are a huge drain on the public purse. In the legal system, trials double in length when an english challenged immigrant is involved. Why should taxpayers pay for this? If they won’t go to the effort to learn the language of the country they come to, they should pay the thousands of dollarts required to get their legal proceedings translated. ”

    So what happens with a non-English-speaking immigrant is wrongly accused of a crime, and subsequently acquitted at trial? You think it’s fair that they should be out of pocket for tens of thousands of dollars due to the no fault of their own?

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    If I were you, I would worry more about uni-lingual Canadians, especially those with already poor spoken and written first language skills, being at a disadvantage as a large proportion of new immigrant Canadians I meet today are dual or even tri-lingual.
    _________

    I really don’t think that you anecdotal experiences translate into the larger immigrant population’s experience. Statistically, new immigrants are taking much longer to achieve the average wage, largely because of their lack of English language skills. Compare the current cohort of immigrants to those of the 1970s, and even when accounting for the same country of origin, current immigrants have a long ways to climb to average income.

    Your scenario would only be a concern if the province’s current trend of ethnic self segregation gets superimposed onto the provincial economy, creating ethnic commercial centres much like their residential centres. Then clearly having English, whether you are ESL or fluent, is of little to no value as you can survive with non-official languages. Perhaps that is what you think will happen…

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    Anonymous Says:
    49

    @patriotz: “Nothing to do with the story, but did anyone else check out this prominent ad on the web page:”

    Not me – not everybody will get the same ads.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Targeted_advertising

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    @Anonymous:

    “So what happens with a non-English-speaking immigrant is wrongly accused of a crime, and subsequently acquitted at trial? You think it’s fair that they should be out of pocket for tens of thousands of dollars due to the no fault of their own?”

    Well, I guess they should have learned english. You’ve proved my point.

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    market stats Says:
    51

    Another good chunk of listings today, if ZHR… is correct and the high end market has stalled, no $10m deals, even the opaque official HPI price may be dropping. Perhaps the tide is turning from greed to fear.

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    Anonymous Says:
    52

    can one stay as a permanent resident in Canada forever? or do they have to apply for citizenship at some point?

    Is it that much easier to get PR in Canada than the states? Why does it seem so simple for Chinese to move here with their entire family?

    Without being hired by a U.S company, it’s going to take me about 6 year to get PR in the U.S….and that’s with a father that’s now a U.S citizen
    (he won that sweepstake lottery thing, had PR there for 5 years and applied and got citizenship this year).

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    Laibach Laibach Says:
    53

    @Anonymous:

    Why on earth would a non-English-speaking immigrant be accused of a crime at the place where he is not supposed to be (by default) if he doesn’t speak English?

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    “I would worry more about uni-lingual Canadians, especially those with already poor spoken and written first language skills”

    You could say that about any country on this Earth. Everywhere you find people who can barely function in their native language. We’re not all created equal, but we can strive to have certain qualities in our immigrants.

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    Anonymous Says:
    55

    @Laibach: “Why on earth would a non-English-speaking immigrant be accused of a crime at the place where he is not supposed to be (by default) if he doesn’t speak English?”

    What are you talking about? Unless the plan is to eject all non-English/French speaking immigrants the moment the entry requirements change (and I don’t think that’s the plan), then it could still happen.

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    Anonymous Says:
    56

    @Anonymous:

    “can one stay as a permanent resident in Canada forever? ”

    Under current rules PR expires if you’re out of the country for more than 730 days (2 years) in any consecutive 5-year period.

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    Laibach Laibach Says:
    57

    @Demo:

    Your scenario would only be a concern if the province’s current trend of ethnic self segregation gets superimposed onto the provincial economy, creating ethnic commercial centres much like their residential centres.

    I’d say that scenario is unfolding for the last several yeas if not a decade or two. For example, I will never forget the scene when I walked into HSBC IT office in Burnaby and literally all employees were Chinese speaking only in Chinese. You couldn’t hear a word in English, like visiting some organization in Beijing. Also I’ve been told (so not sure if that’s entirely correct) that you can’t be hired as a developer, tester or middle manager if you don’t speak Chinese.

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    Laibach Laibach Says:
    58

    @Anonymous:

    Skilled workers are selected as permanent residents based on their education, work experience, knowledge of English and/or French, and other criteria that have been shown to help them become economically established in Canada.

    http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/skilled/index.asp

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    Anonymous Says:
    59

    @Laibach:

    I’m not sure I understand the relevance of your quote. My point is that regardless of any future rules changes there will be people already in Canada with limited English/French skills.

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    paulb. Says:
    60

    New Listings 309
    Price Changes 175
    Sold Listings 150
    TI:17195

    http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

    paulboenisch@gmail.com

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    Laibach Laibach Says:
    61

    @Anonymous:

    Of course, we all know that so let’s not waste time splitting hairs here. Also what we all know is that recent and current immigration practice when it comes to Chinese immigration is not much concerned about English skills. These are just plain facts and I’m not going to elaborate further.

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    @Laibach: HSBC is the Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation…

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    market stats Says:
    63

    Looks like a lot of expirations lately, I wonder how that tracks vs. prior years. In other words, are those listings bound to come back eventually which I assume they would be? Furthermore, the price changes seem to be high vs prior years so is that not an indication of price declines, or is there just a larger volume of over optimistic listings than normal?

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    Anonymous Says:
    64

    @Laibach:

    I’m not splitting hairs. I was responding to your original question: “Why on earth would a non-English-speaking immigrant be accused of a crime at the place where he is not supposed to be (by default) if he doesn’t speak English?”

    So again, should somebody who cannot speak English or French have to pay for their own translation services to defend themselves in court?

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    Laibach Laibach Says:
    65

    @Anonymous:

    Yes, for example Mr. Lai Changxing and another 8K scumbags that are currently waiting to get back to their motherland.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/22/canada-extradite-chinese-fugitive-lai

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    Urbain Says:
    66

    @Anonymous: Because there are only two official languages in Canada and your language rights as far as services through government offices (courts included) are guaranteed in English and French. What this means in the courts is that, for criminal trials, you have the right to have your case tried in one of the two official languages. However, if you need a translator for another language, one is made available to you at cost to the courts. In civil cases you are responsible for your own translator at your own cost.

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    Guy Smiley Guy Smiley Says:
    67

    “Why on earth would a non-English-speaking immigrant be accused of a crime at the place where he is not supposed to be (by default) if he doesn’t speak English?”

    I’m not sure i understand the question exactly… but the Shafia murder trial seems to be an ugly example. It required plenty of translation and took place in 4 languages. I doubt the defendants paid for that.

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    Simple Says:
    68

    Wow. I wasn’t expecting my “Wisdom of Crowds” experiment to be derailed by a discussion over immigration policies.

    Anyway – the median guess for the peak-to-trough price decline is 43.2%.

    If anyone is still interested in posting their estimate, it will make the method more robust.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    69

    @Guy Smiley:
    Every defendant in a criminal trial in Canada is entitled to understand the proceedings against him and that means there must be translation if the trial is in a language he doesn’t understand.

    That would apply to you if you were on trial in Quebec City, a guy from Quebec City in Vancouver, an Inuit who speaks only his own language south of 60, an immigrant who never learned English or French anywhere, or a tourist anywhere. Or a deaf person who only knows sign language anywhere.

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    @Simple: The powers at be should have let the market correct in 2008 rather than doling out cheap money and implementing stupidly lax mortgage rules. It would have been painful medicine but it would have avoided the conflagration that I predict is on its way. 50% minimum for Vancouver with Dunbar being ground zero and property virgins being road kill.

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    @Simple: 52%

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    72

    @JR:
    Exactly, what we would have got in 2008 without government intervention was a regional bust in the West and a slump elsewhere, much like the early 80′s. What we are inevitably headed for now is a repeat of the virtually nationwide bust that the US has experienced. Both the West and Toronto are headed for bigger versions of their 80′s and 90′s busts respectively.

    But the Conservatives got what they were planning on, a majority in 2011, so it was “worth it”.

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    Anonymous Says:
    73

    @Patriotz’ No.1 Fan: ….For example, in the highrise I am renting, there are no 4th, (13th), 14th and 24th floor. This is so misleading. If you live on the 27th floor, you are actually living on 23rd. To me that appears to be quite a difference.

    Isn’t there some law against this misrepresentation? Why not just skip a 100 floors and pretend the building has 130 floors in stead of 30? Is this common practice and how come now one has brought this up in the media or otherwise?…

    You’re overlooking the obvious: The morons building these dumps can’t count.

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    Smoking Man Says:
    74

    Don’t worry JR, your prognosis is still on track to become reality.

    Much to the delight of the lemmings on this blog.

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    Patsan Says:
    75

    58%

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patient renter Says:
    76

    47%

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    oneangryslav2 Says:
    77

    @Demo:

    I really don’t think that you anecdotal experiences translate into the larger immigrant population’s experience. Statistically, new immigrants are taking much longer to achieve the average wage, largely because of their lack of English language skills. Compare the current cohort of immigrants to those of the 1970s, and even when accounting for the same country of origin, current immigrants have a long ways to climb to average income.

    This is a function of the change in the political economy of Canada. When my parents emigrated to Canada, they, like many immigrants, could only be employed in blue-collar jobs. The wage differential between these jobs and white-collar jobs was not as great then as it is now. As they became more proficient in English and had begun to accumulate work experience, their wages grew and the income/wage gap decreased even more.

    The current nature of the global political economy has made the wage differential due to education greater than it was back then, so the average immigrant is not going to be closing the income gap anywhere near as quickly as she was 40 years ago.

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    @Simple:

    Sorry if my Englis/French debate contributed in derailment, it wasn’t my intention but got boosted with hopefully well-intentioned questions.

    My estimate would range from 40% to 80% depending on location, an object quality and alignment with fundamentals. On average that would mean 60% at least to get closer to fundamentals. However drop of 60% would not get us in line line fundamentals which makes my estimate pessimistic from the bear’s perspective.

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    Is this a new pardigm?

    Our landlord is selling, Sale-A-Viction 2nd time now in 7 years…

    But wait, there is a twist… Landlords want to take us with them to the new place…. I guess good tenants are hard to find…

    Secretly I hope the sell this crap hole, and the new owners give us notice and by the time we move we can find something much much better…

    I’ll keep you posted…

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    Laibach Laibach Says:
    80

    @Kosta:

    #78 was Laibach but somehow Kosta nic got pulled.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Makaya Makaya Says:
    81

    Winterpeg got the virus too…

    City condominium prices climbing at fastest pace in the country

    “The average selling price of a standard condo jumped by 11 per cent from a year earlier, climbing to $186,143. And in the north-east area of the city, the increase was an eye-popping 21.7 per cent, the company added.”

    Who on earth would buy a condo there?

    “The escalation in selling prices here was part of a national trend which saw strong price appreciation in most major cites in Canada during the first three months of 2012 due to a combination of strong demand and a reduced inventory of available homes.
    Royal LePage said Canada saw average price increases ranging from 2.2 per cent for condos to 5.0 per cent for two-storey homes.”

    Poor greedy people, they have no idea what’s coming.

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    RE: The Peg’s prices…

    Is it possible this is HVM? “Hot Vancouver Money”

    All the people 30-40 from Vancouver that have been saving up for YEARS to buy something, anything, only to have the price of the homes outstrip their ability to save for a down payment have given up and moved to The Peg, where the price of a home even after a bidding war is pocket change in comparison…

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    The Vancouver Sun is at it again.

    “The expectation of being able to afford to live in the neighbourhood you grew up in has evaporated. It’s a new world.”

    http://www.vancouversun.com/McMartin+Vancouver+real+estate+race+World+hits+home/6506256/story.html

    Its great to see the media supporting the forcing out of Canadians from their homes for the sake of wealthy immigrants.

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    Hu Yu Fullin Says:
    84

    Rakim “Its great to see the media supporting the forcing out of Canadians from their homes for the sake of wealthy immigrants.”

    White Canadians should work harder to become wealthy and to be able to compete with Asians. simply as that. stop whining and start competing.

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    Absinthe Says:
    85

    @Simple: Ah, let’s say 60%.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Rakim “Its great to see the media supporting the forcing out of Canadians from their homes for the sake of wealthy immigrants.”

    it’s not wealthy immigrants that jacked up the price of moldy East Vancouver shack. It is the locals that created this mess.

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    Makaya Makaya Says:
    87

    @Hu Yu Fullin: “White Canadians should work harder to become wealthy and to be able to compete with Asians. simply as that. stop whining and start competing.”

    Like these people I suppose?

    S.E.C. sues SinoTech Energy, another China-based accounting fraud

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    “Its great to see the media supporting the forcing out of Canadians from their homes for the sake of wealthy immigrants.”

    you can always move to Ottawa and get lousy government job. bunch of whiners

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    Hu Yu Fullin Says:
    89

    @Makaya

    or something like white executives briberies at Walmart,
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/walmex-tumbles-in-mexico-city-after-bribery-report-2012-04-23?link=MW_story_latest_news

    and BTW did you guys recovered money from MF Global or that was just price of doing business in white America? he-he, you are such useful idiot for corporate world

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    i mean let’s be honest, whites are on defensive in the global economic game and there are only two things that they are doing: finger pointing and bailouts. he-he

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    Banker Says:
    91

    @MR:

    “Mandarin Residences” in Richmond?

    Now I don’t know about you, but buying into a place called “Mandarin Residences” seems to imply a certain something about the buyer. It is not hard to tell which group of buyers they are targeting.

    Why is the media so shocked when people blame “rich Chinese” for high prices when developers target that supposed demographic so blatantly.

    What the marketing is trying to do is exactly what it did with you. It created the illusion this complex will be in high demand by rich Chinese. In fact it will be bought by people who plan on flipping to rich Chinese in the future.

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    Anonymous Says:
    92

    @Patriotz’ No.1 Fan:

    How is it possible that a developer (Polygon) can get away with building a building without floors that end with 4. (I presume 4 is the dreaded unlucky number for the Chinese, correct?)

    For example, in the highrise I am renting, there are no 4th, (13th), 14th and 24th floor. This is so misleading. If you live on the 27th floor, you are actually living on 23rd. To me that appears to be quite a difference.

    They have no problem in the taller buildings with floors in the 40s. The reason they do is because people will pay more for the 27th floor over the 23rd floor even if it is on the same level. I bet most people who buy the presales do not even know which floor they are actually buying.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Banker “What the marketing is trying to do is exactly what it did with you. It created the illusion this complex will be in high demand by rich Chinese.”

    exactly!!
    creating illusions for the locals idiots.

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    Anonymous Says:
    94

    @Laibach:

    I’d say that scenario is unfolding for the last several yeas if not a decade or two. For example, I will never forget the scene when I walked into HSBC IT office in Burnaby and literally all employees were Chinese speaking only in Chinese.

    I was recently in the US and walked in a TD Bank. Everyone in there was speaking Canadian. Unbelievable! If RBC opened a bank in Hong Kong do you think people might speak English?

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    Laibach Laibach Says:
    95

    @BP:

    Fortunately it’s Richmond so all stays within family.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    lot’s of whites upset tonite…is it because no rioting this year in Vancouver ? hi-hi

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Rakim: McMartin should disclose his interest in rising RE prices. If he’s feeling smug’n’comfy about a healthy increase in the value of his house, he may simply not understand how stressed the average Vancouverite is about housing affordability, or realise how offensive/taunting his columns come across.

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    goodpriceforyou Says:
    98

    @Hu Yu Fulling

    Dude be nice, I’ve giving your dad so many empties this year in my back alley. PS, big party this weekend so u and him come by and u can have them all. Just in time too, mortgage payment and that lease on the beamer next week;)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @MR:

    “This type of marketing perpetuates that perception and it really reinforces the ethnic self segregation in this city.”

    Yeah, next thing you know they’ll give some place a ridiculous ethnic name like British Properties or something.

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    Anonymous Says:
    100

    @N: “Yeah, next thing you know they’ll give some place a ridiculous ethnic name like British Properties or something.”

    LOL!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @N: Umm you do know that British Properties was once off-limits to non-Whites and non-Christians? Sort of backs up the concerns about using ethnic names for real estate. TWO WRONGS DON’T MAKE A RIGHT.

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    Anonymous Says:
    102

    @Meh: “Umm you do know that British Properties was once off-limits to non-Whites and non-Christians? Sort of backs up the concerns about using ethnic names for real estate. TWO WRONGS DON’T MAKE A RIGHT.”

    Umm who said whites couldn’t buy at the Mandarin Residences? Half the condo complexes and most streets in Vancouver have a British name. What provice do we live in – BRITISH Columbia. Should we ban Chinese food restaurants because it implys only Chinese can eat there?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Anonymous: “Umm who said whites couldn’t buy at the Mandarin Residences?”

    No, just highly discouraged. And not just whites, but anyone who isn’t Chinese. Its heading in the wrong direction, further encouraging the ethnic balkanization that’s becoming all too obvious.

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    Anonymous Says:
    104

    Mandarin Residences for Chinese only?

    How about:

    Bohemia – is it for Czechs?

    Virtu – for Italians?

    Espana – for Spanish?

    Olympic Village – for Greeks?

    The Erickson – for people named Erickson?

    The Westside – for Westerners?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    105

    @Meh: “No, just highly discouraged.”

    You are not bright enough to understand the name is actually marketing to NON Chinese speculators hoping to cash in.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    106

    @Anonymous:
    The word “mandarin” is actually of Indian origin and was used in colonial SE Asia to refer to important people, thus by extension to important Chinese. It has never been used by the Chinese to refer to themselves, except when speaking in English.

    Also note that the web site for the development is in English only.

    http://www.mandarinrichmond.com/

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    107

    70%

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    willy_p Says:
    108

    aberdeen center is a scottish mall

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Apocarypse Mao Says:
    109

    @ # 104 Anonymous Says: April 24th, 2012 at 12:31 am “Mandarin Residences for Chinese only? etc, etc”

    It’s all good ’cause Beijing has ‘Vancouver Forest’!

    http://www.ekistics.com/projects_tp_vf.htm

    And I would guess, that it’s not marketed at Canadians.

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    good-format Says:
    110

    Copied from PaulB’s number
    http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

     Date      Listing  Price(+-)  Sold   Inv     Inv(+-)  S/L(%)
    Apr-02       450     139       125   16,074            27.8
    Apr-03       319     133       224   16,124     50     70.2
    Apr-04       302     131       147   16,230    106     48.7
    Apr-05       277     118       117   16,345    115     42.2
    
    Apr-10       403     211       159   16,475    130     39.5
    Apr-11       416     151       202   16,618    143     48.6
    Apr-12       333     140       103   16,736    118     30.9
    Apr-13       289     146       150   16,807     71     51.9
    
    Apr-16       341     170       137   16,883     76     40.2
    Apr-17       280     177       179   16,893     10     63.9
    Apr-18       301     146       170   16,971     78     56.5
    Apr-19       251     127       129   17,025     54     51.4
    Apr-20       238     131        85   17,137    112     35.7
    
    Apr-23       309     175       150   17,195     58     48.5
    Apr-24       343     145       218   17,220     25     63.6
    
    Total-Cur   4852   2,240     2,295           1,146     47.3
    5 day-avg    288     145       150              65     52.1
    Total-Est  6,006   2,819     2,897   17,482  1,408     48.2
    

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