BC, economy, prices

Average Vancouver selling price down 9.8%

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65 Comments

The problem with using averages is they can look terrific on the way up and horrible on the way down.  Remember all that talk about the ‘average’ Vancouver house now being worth $1 million?  One year later it’s apparently worth $735,315.  What will it be worth next year?

The average home price in Canada in April was up 0.9 per cent from a year ago at $375,810.

“It bears repeating that the national average price was skewed higher last spring by record level high-end home sales in Vancouver’s priciest neighbourhoods, and that a replay of this phenomenon was not expected this year,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

Sales in Canada’s largest markets are having opposite effects on the national average, with slowing sales in Vancouver dragging, and soaring sales and prices in Toronto exerting upward pressure.

The average selling price in Vancouver was down 9.8 per cent compared with a year ago at $735,315, while the average price in Toronto was up 8.4 per cent at $517,556.

Read the full article is in the Vancouver Sun.

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Anonymous

@Yalie: Tsur Somerville is also paid directly by the real estate industry and home builders to produce (favorable) reports. He is as slimey as they come. At least Cameron Muir, realtors, etc are known to be biased. I hope this guy gets tared and feathered once this bust happens.

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jesse

@jumpin in: “New OSFI rules will only be in application in the Fall.”

Fall is optimistic but I guess you never know. Most likely it will come into force in 2013, though some banks may be strong-armed into implementing certain measures sooner.

2013 is a new normal, especially if the HELOC changes survive the cutting room.

Say… on those HELOC changes. Any idea how that affects Smith Maneuver people? Just wondering…

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Yalie

All you need to know about Tsur’s opinions on real estate can be found on the list of donors for the Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate at UBC, where he is the director:

http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/sponsers.html

Have a look at the list, then go watch the movie Inside Job to learn just how objective and impartial university academics can be when their paychecks depend on them having certain opinions.

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Anonymous

@jumpin in: Should Tsur not have to disclose his interest in RE? When other types of analysts are interviewed, it’s common to make such disclosures..

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jumpin in

@frank
New OSFI rules will only be in application in the Fall. Lending only starting to tighten. HAM has vanished. Be patient.

RE Somerville: I am convinced he hasn’t yet found a greater fool for his own investment properties.

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Simple

Can we please see an updated inventory graph? Have we intercepted the 2010 line?

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Conrad

@frank: One bad day and your throw in the towel. Would hate to have you on my hockey team

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frank

Sales/list and inventory increase was disappointing today.

Just when it looks like we have this danged thing in the bag, a new influx of buyers comes in to pump up the bubble more.

Didn’t we just have the CMHC getting bound and gagged? I am beginning to think we have to wait for that little dink Carney to raise rates before we get a good going drop, or China to really hit the wall, not maybe or possibly.

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Anonymous

@mac:
Agreed! The reason the foreclosure system is the way it is, and not the way he wants it to be, is so that people don’t walk away scott free when they still have a means to pay. His wife has RRSPs…either cash them in or declare bankruptcy.

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southseacompany

Here’s’ the GlobalBC clip with the usual RE talking heads; Somerville, Patrick. Message from Global, “Just because sales are slumping don’t expect prices to do the same”

http://www.globaltvbc.com/video/real+estate+reality+check/video.html?v=2235752714&p=1&s=dd#video

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bubbly

@frank: Yes, I agree that banks, “money movers” etc. should take responsibility for their actions and there should be no bailouts etc. However, entitlements and lack of responsibility by regular people are a huge part of OWS – that is a fact. Look at what many of the US occupiers are saying – many blame the banks for their own inability to pay their mortgages and demand mortgage relief (at taxpayers cost). When / If Vancouver’s real estate bubble finally pop, we will see a lot of the same here. There will be many occupiers claiming that they had no idea that not paying their mortgage would get them foreclosed or that they bought only because a “predatory” lender forced them. And savers will pay for it all.

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Re-diculous

@Vangirl

Tsur Somerville….what a real estate hoare!

I think his message is really intended for current owners to say: i.e. ” your house won’t fall that much so don’t all rush to the exists, thereby build inventory and cause…….the thing I said that isn’t going to happen”

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frank

@bubbly:

I clicked on the thumbs up before reading your last line.

I think you are confused. OWS is all ABOUT taking responsibility. The banks and wealthy Wall Street money movers, the Goldmans of this world taking their losses. Not come crying to the the government to bail them out while the unwashed get foreclosed by the millions.

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bubbly

@mac:

These people want to take out a class action suit against the CMHC because no one, not even their lawyer explained the “true intention” of the CMHC. Aaaarrrrggghghghghgh! This stuff makes me nuts.

Sadly this is just a reply of what was happening in the US where people are also refusing to take responsibility for their own stupid actions.
This is also one of the main drivers behind OWS.

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Bear=loser

Hahaha…. Suckit loser bears! 200+ sales day and (-) inventory! Reminds me of Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. When will you guys ever learn.

Oh, by the way I have a 1.5″ penis and am riddled with herpes.

Bulls rule!!!

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Info

4 bed for rent in Calgary = 29 listings
http://calgary.craigslist.ca/search/apa?query=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=4
Over a 900 locally.

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jumpin in

How much leverage do you have if you make an offer in Van East?
Here are a few examples (last 5 weeks):

V943176
asked: 690 k
sold: 676 k

V943983
Asked: 749 K
Sold: 739 K

V920962
asked: 669 k
sold: 662 k

V918103
asked: 728 k
sold: 690 k

V941502
asked: 698 k
sold: 708 k

V937950
asked:699 k
sold:670 k

V923543
sold 9500 below asking

V940109
sold 3000 above asking

V940622 sold 6000 above asking

Conclusion: prices pretty flat, for now…

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mac

@Patiently Waiting: I can’t handle it. The guy signed a mortgage and it’s someone else’s responsibility to explain that FORECLOSURE isn’t a nice process. The banks get all mean and nasty. And they send you rude letters without that cutsie statement stuffer urging you to borrow for your RRSP with a robin’s egg in a nest printed on it. He thinks that he should go to the bank, be a risky borrower, borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars, default and then the government picks up 100% of the tab. No harm done. Hey! There’s that twisty Arthur Eriksson building on False Creek. I see the units, one per floor, are now going for 5-6 million. And double hey! I saw a homeless guy in Gastown today who pissed himself and has no place to sleep. Wait a minute. Why don’t… Read more »

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Makaya

@paulb.: Inventory -74 today! Have we reached the peak already?

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paulb.

New Listings 271
Price Changes 185
Sold Listings 204
TI:18200

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

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Best place on meth

@mac:

“Jesse! You go in there with your straight talk. I’ll get all crazy on them after RJ does.”

Ooh, the good cop bad cop routine. I like it!

I’m gonna pass though as I don’t think this crybaby is worth educating.

“Hey E-Trade, how come you guys never called me up to explain these put thingys before I went online and bought them?”

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Patiently Waiting

@mac: It looks like some have commented and told them pretty much what they need to know. Beyond that, let them figure it out themselves since, keep in mind, there aren’t many reading that blog.

Its more important for us to message more effectively on this when the time is right, which is when huge masses of people are defaulting and wondering who to blame. Then we can point their finger back in their direction.

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ReadyToPop

“The extremely low level of interest rates is acting both as an inducement for people to take on more debt than they would have in the past and on the flipside not encouraging them to save as in the past.” People could end up working longer and it might also mean there will be that much less equity in the home you’ll be leaving to heirs. The attitude of homeowners could also reflect the longer amortizations the mortgage industry saw before the government cracked down on the rules, Mr. Porter said. Traditionally, mortgages were amortized over 25 years, but that number ballooned to 40 before Ottawa twice lowered the limit, which now stands at 30. Many are calling for it to be reduced back to 25 years. Ms. Di Vito says the issue is how it’s affecting retirement with half… Read more »

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mac

I am really surprised that you guys aren’t jumping all over the comments section of the link that KopyrightKlepto posted yesterday: http://www.cmhc-class-action.com/ These people want to take out a class action suit against the CMHC because no one, not even their lawyer explained the “true intention” of the CMHC. Aaaarrrrggghghghghgh! This stuff makes me nuts. Their true intention? It’s to use my money as a taxpayer to bail out the banks when they make loans to reckless idiots like this. The guy wants to be compensated for not making his bloody monthly payments. Look! I can’t go first. I can’t go in there alone being mean to these Forrest Gumpettes. These idiots are all going bankrupt. But someone needs to set them straight. Jesse! You go in there with your straight talk. I’ll get all crazy on them after RJ… Read more »

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jumpin in

@raggedy renter

Just wait for Greece to default, and the fun will begin 😉

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