Average Vancouver selling price down 9.8%

The problem with using averages is they can look terrific on the way up and horrible on the way down.  Remember all that talk about the ‘average’ Vancouver house now being worth $1 million?  One year later it’s apparently worth $735,315.  What will it be worth next year?

The average home price in Canada in April was up 0.9 per cent from a year ago at $375,810.

“It bears repeating that the national average price was skewed higher last spring by record level high-end home sales in Vancouver’s priciest neighbourhoods, and that a replay of this phenomenon was not expected this year,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

Sales in Canada’s largest markets are having opposite effects on the national average, with slowing sales in Vancouver dragging, and soaring sales and prices in Toronto exerting upward pressure.

The average selling price in Vancouver was down 9.8 per cent compared with a year ago at $735,315, while the average price in Toronto was up 8.4 per cent at $517,556.

Read the full article is in the Vancouver Sun.

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McLovin
Guest
McLovin

“I truly wonder how many people know that prices are down -10% YOY?”

For most properties they aren’t. I am disappoint.

How does this make any sense?

jesse
Member

@McLovin: “I truly wonder how many people know that prices are down -10% YOY?”

The average price is down 10% YOY. “Prices” are not. There is a difference.

loser with girls
Guest
loser with girls

another brutal day for commodities, WTI $92 and change – falling like a rock..DOW down 10 days of last 11
my China bear ETF did well as well

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@loser with girls:

Word on the street is that China is crashing.

This is unrelated to the incident in Singapore.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

is there really a China bear Etf?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Time for Cam Good to fly in with his helicopter and rescue all those rich Asian RE investors (wink, wink) he dropped off on his last fly-by. Reminiscent of the US’s withdrawal from Saigon:
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Arts/Arts_/Pictures/2009/5/20/1242811631282/Fall-of-Saigon-by-Hugh-Va-001.jpg

loser with girls
Guest
loser with girls

Annon:
FXP
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FXP

BPOM “This is unrelated to the incident in Singapore”

Ferrari crash is what you would call “leverage” crash 🙂

Devore
Member
Devore

@Anonymous: Yes, however it is a synthetic proxy, since trading actual Chinese equities is not possible outside the Chinese exchanges.

Top 10 Holdings (200.1% of Total Assets)
Company Symbol % Assets
Ftse Chn Swaps N/A 200.10

loser with the girls
Guest
loser with the girls
few more notes on China crash http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/05/real-estate-crash-in-china-underway.html – Year-on-year sales in Q1, for all real estate, was down 14.6%. – Residential property sales were down 17.5% – Office sales were down -10.2% – Sales in January-February were a disaster, falling 20.9% overall, compared to the first two months of 2011, -24.7% for residential. – Total amount of floor space “for sale” was up 35.5%, compared to the same date last year – Floor space of residential units “for sale” grew 47.4%. – At the end of 2011, total floor space “under construction” was roughly 4.6 times the floor space sold – A year and a half worth of excess inventory is hidden somewhere in the pipeline – New starts in April fell 14.6% year-on-year and 27.0% month-on-month, for property as a whole – Housing starts fell -14.4% year-on-year and -23.4%… Read more »
RaggedyRenter
Guest
RaggedyRenter
Here’s what I think happened. The upscale market have slowed down. The average market however is still turning. This is why the average goes down but we have not seen any price movement. So if your average Johnny and Joanne Canuck goes to BMO and ask for a mortgage, they are still approved an x amount of money (about 6-8x income?). This is the only segment in the market that’s still liquid. Not sure if we’re going to see a lot of price movement this year. I’d be happy to see something north of 10%, but it is less likely unless there’s an economic event such as deep recession, stock market crash, jump in unemployment or steep interest rate hike. It will move, but at a glacial pace rather than avalanche. Even if the housing price start to go downhill,… Read more »
vangrl
Member
vangrl

Tsur Somerville was just on Global and said not to believe the hype, that thinking the prices were going to come down by 10-15% was wishful thinking by buyers.

Guess no one told him Vancouver was already down by 10%

wtf

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@vangrl:

Wishful thinking by Turd Sommerville

Eddie
Guest
Eddie

@RaggedyRenter: We’ve already had the most significant “event” imaginable. The CMHC won’t have it’s limit raised and is likely having it’s hands tied by OSFI as we speak.

crashcow
Member

Gotta love Gail Oxlade! She’s a personal finance author that was recently on The Agenda show debating real estate with TD and others. Check out the video here:
http://ww3.tvo.org/video/177475/deconstructing-personal-debt

lot’s of great replies in the comment section of the video.

crashcow
Member

http://tinyurl.com/7naphnd@crashcow: And a recent article she wrote for MoneySense:

What Housing Bubble?
http://tinyurl.com/7naphnd

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

@raggedy renter

Just wait for Greece to default, and the fun will begin 😉

mac
Guest
mac

I am really surprised that you guys aren’t jumping all over the comments section of the link that KopyrightKlepto posted yesterday:

http://www.cmhc-class-action.com/

These people want to take out a class action suit against the CMHC because no one, not even their lawyer explained the “true intention” of the CMHC. Aaaarrrrggghghghghgh! This stuff makes me nuts. Their true intention? It’s to use my money as a taxpayer to bail out the banks when they make loans to reckless idiots like this. The guy wants to be compensated for not making his bloody monthly payments.

Look! I can’t go first. I can’t go in there alone being mean to these Forrest Gumpettes. These idiots are all going bankrupt. But someone needs to set them straight. Jesse! You go in there with your straight talk. I’ll get all crazy on them after RJ does.

ReadyToPop
Guest
ReadyToPop
“The extremely low level of interest rates is acting both as an inducement for people to take on more debt than they would have in the past and on the flipside not encouraging them to save as in the past.” People could end up working longer and it might also mean there will be that much less equity in the home you’ll be leaving to heirs. The attitude of homeowners could also reflect the longer amortizations the mortgage industry saw before the government cracked down on the rules, Mr. Porter said. Traditionally, mortgages were amortized over 25 years, but that number ballooned to 40 before Ottawa twice lowered the limit, which now stands at 30. Many are calling for it to be reduced back to 25 years. Ms. Di Vito says the issue is how it’s affecting retirement with half… Read more »
Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

@mac: It looks like some have commented and told them pretty much what they need to know. Beyond that, let them figure it out themselves since, keep in mind, there aren’t many reading that blog.

Its more important for us to message more effectively on this when the time is right, which is when huge masses of people are defaulting and wondering who to blame. Then we can point their finger back in their direction.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@mac:

“Jesse! You go in there with your straight talk. I’ll get all crazy on them after RJ does.”

Ooh, the good cop bad cop routine. I like it!

I’m gonna pass though as I don’t think this crybaby is worth educating.

“Hey E-Trade, how come you guys never called me up to explain these put thingys before I went online and bought them?”

paulb.
Guest
paulb.

New Listings 271
Price Changes 185
Sold Listings 204
TI:18200

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@paulb.: Inventory -74 today! Have we reached the peak already?

mac
Guest
mac
@Patiently Waiting: I can’t handle it. The guy signed a mortgage and it’s someone else’s responsibility to explain that FORECLOSURE isn’t a nice process. The banks get all mean and nasty. And they send you rude letters without that cutsie statement stuffer urging you to borrow for your RRSP with a robin’s egg in a nest printed on it. He thinks that he should go to the bank, be a risky borrower, borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars, default and then the government picks up 100% of the tab. No harm done. Hey! There’s that twisty Arthur Eriksson building on False Creek. I see the units, one per floor, are now going for 5-6 million. And double hey! I saw a homeless guy in Gastown today who pissed himself and has no place to sleep. Wait a minute. Why don’t… Read more »
jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

How much leverage do you have if you make an offer in Van East?
Here are a few examples (last 5 weeks):

V943176
asked: 690 k
sold: 676 k

V943983
Asked: 749 K
Sold: 739 K

V920962
asked: 669 k
sold: 662 k

V918103
asked: 728 k
sold: 690 k

V941502
asked: 698 k
sold: 708 k

V937950
asked:699 k
sold:670 k

V923543
sold 9500 below asking

V940109
sold 3000 above asking

V940622 sold 6000 above asking

Conclusion: prices pretty flat, for now…

Info
Guest
Info

4 bed for rent in Calgary = 29 listings
http://calgary.craigslist.ca/search/apa?query=&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=4
Over a 900 locally.