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[…] “A little off-topic but I wondered what you guys would make of the rental market. We have been looking to rent for a few weeks now and have seen mostly tower and new condo units (1BR and 2BR) for $1100 to $1450. Most landlords seemed pretty eager, were willing to offer at least $100 off and almost hounded us when we didn’t call back.I can still see the same units on craigslist that were offered 3 weeks ago, indicating an oversupply of rental units (or a price mismatch). Is there an actual excess of housing in BC or do I just happen to look at an unattractive market slice? Do you guys think rents are going to go up (more and more people who assume the crash will happen are waiting to buy, therefore increasing demand for rentals) or… Read more »
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[…] rentals) or down (since desperate investors need to rent out their units even at a loss)?” – suspectum at VCI 22 May 2012 11:32am Share: This entry was posted in 10. Demoralized Renters? and tagged Anecdotes, British Columbia, […]

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[…] rentals) or down (since desperate investors need to rent out their units even at a loss)?” – suspectum at VCI 22 May 2012 11:32am Share: This entry was posted in 10. Demoralized Renters? and tagged Anecdotes, British Columbia, […]

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[…] “My significant other has two sisters, each of whose family has taken out HELOCs on an annual basis (“to get us back to even”) the last three years. Their mortgages are coming up for renewal later this year and I’m curious as to the how much they owe relative to perceived equity. The one sister talks about “moving up” in a couple of years (“Janie and Andrew [their children] will need their own bedrooms soon”), but all I can think about is how she has no idea what is going to hit them. If my hunch is correct, they’ll barely be able to remortgage their current place let alone have the means to move up. I’ve decided to keep my mouth shut when I’m in their presence, however.” – oneangryslav2 at VCI 22 May 1:36pm […]

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[…] been pulled and rented pending a miracle. There are plenty of shoes just waiting to drop.” – Turkey at VCI 22 May 2012 10:08am […]

mac
Guest
mac

@mac: @condo watcher: Wait! I don’t think that was explanation enough for you. By PAST, I mean a few years ago, when the market was SMOKIN’ HOT, IN THE SPRING. THE SMOKING HOT SPRING MARKET which we are NOT in now!!!!!!!! Get it?

mac
Guest
mac

@condo watcher: Relax! I’m not saying it’s happening now. In THE PAST when the MARKET WAS HOT, there were many DAYS when the sell list ratio was well over 100%. Feck!

condo watcher
Guest
condo watcher
@mAC HOW DO YOU GET A SALES TO LIST FIGURE OF 115%–are they selling stuff that’s not even on the MLS listings—any of the entries on the MLS system can take up to 3–4 -5 days or longer to be put on by the MLS Exchange (located in Van–everything goes through there i believe) some realtors do try to “fudge” the numbers by using sales to new listings, but what of the old listings? don’t they count?–check out the Okanagan real estate board –they do it right–count all listings for the month vs sales–a true percentage watch for a new for sale sign to go up near you –try to find it on the MLS map–you may have to wait a few days to see it show up–it depends how efficient the realtor and his company are and how busy… Read more »
VanDweller
Member
VanDweller
Hopefully this time it works. Copied from PaulB’s number http://www.laurenandpaul.ca Using good-format’s format. Date Listing Price(+-) Sold Inv Inv(+-) S/L(%) 2012.04.30 316 179 124 17530 75 39.24% 2012.05.01 354 144 179 17122 -408 50.56% 2012.05.02 371 131 150 17243 121 35.69% 2012.05.03 339 159 121 17400 157 35.69% 2012.05.04 337 120 77 17592 192 22.85% 2012.05.07 353 177 90 17727 135 25.50% 2012.05.08 365 157 183 17823 96 50.14% 2012.05.09 337 145 183 17917 94 54.30% 2012.05.10 318 129 115 18073 156 36.16% 2012.05.11 262 132 81 18176 103 30.92% 2012.05.14 268 168 150 18182 6 55.97% 2012.05.15 287 174 95 18274 92 33.10% 2012.05.16 271 185 204 18200 -74 75.28% 2012.05.17 270 127 70 18306 106 25.93% 2012.05.18 328 106 135 18419 113 41.16% 2012.05.22 381 255 120 18529 110 31.50% Total-Cur 4841 2309 1953 999 40.32% 5 day-avg… Read more »
VanDweller
Member
VanDweller
Sorry for the previous post. I seem to have lost my PRE tag "touch".
VanDweller
Member
VanDweller
Copied from PaulB’s number http://www.laurenandpaul.ca Using good-format’s format. Date Listing Price(+-) Sold Inv Inv(+-) S/L(%) 2012.04.30 316 179 124 17530 75 39.24% 2012.05.01 354 144 179 17122 -408 50.56% 2012.05.02 371 131 150 17243 121 35.69% 2012.05.03 339 159 121 17400 157 35.69% 2012.05.04 337 120 77 17592 192 22.85% 2012.05.07 353 177 90 17727 135 25.50% 2012.05.08 365 157 183 17823 96 50.14% 2012.05.09 337 145 183 17917 94 54.30% 2012.05.10 318 129 115 18073 156 36.16% 2012.05.11 262 132 81 18176 103 30.92% 2012.05.14 268 168 150 18182 6 55.97% 2012.05.15 287 174 95 18274 92 33.10% 2012.05.16 271 185 204 18200 -74 75.28% 2012.05.17 270 127 70 18306 106 25.93% 2012.05.18 328 106 135 18419 113 41.16% 2012.05.22 381 255 120 18529 110 31.50% Total-Cur 4841 2309 1953 999 40.32% 5 day-avg 327 148 130 117 39.40%… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11949079&PidKey=444142353

“Location! Location! Location! Amazing opportunity in South Vancouver’s most coveted (and rarely for sale) pristine & picturesque community”

Right… isn’t it the place where they had several shootings a while ago and where first floor windows all have security grids? Some realtors have no limit!

I would agree on the “picturesque” though: I once went into a small restaurant there and my 9 year old panicked that “we won’t be able to pay because we only have Canadian money” 😉

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting
@chilled: “The worst congested roads in the Lower Insaneland are in New West. Constant gridlock, city planners who never widened ONE road and think a left turn lane or bus pullout is for the “big city.”” For many decades, the humble working class folks of New West grudgingly accepted their fate at the hands of regional traffic planning. But the in last few years, more NIMBYish types have settled into this area from COV etc. In other words, there are more wealthy people who won’t get pushed around. They might actually get their way and eliminate the Patullo Bridge or have it directly connect to the TCH around United Blvd. Second scenario more likely. You might say, what is teensy weensy New West gonna do? Well, if it doesn’t get its way, expect more passive-aggressive city planning like one lane… Read more »
HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo

@McLovin

I think also realtors should eat for free at the 19K party. Call it the Last Supper.

I will be DJ. First tune to spin will be “19” by Paul Hardcastle.

“…All those who remember the bubble, they won’t forget what they’ve seen…kiting, and incredible debt…’till inventory hit nineteen”

“nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh…nuh-nuh-nuh-nuh nineteen”

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

More international handwringing about Canadian real estate

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18155405

An anecdote about physical intimidation at a Toronto open-house.

The reporter tries to make the case that real estate always goes in 20 years. Tell that to Americans right now. Not to mention the typical family will move 2 or 3 times in two decades.

jesse
Member

@mac: theredpin.com is one step closer to an open MLS. It’s almost worth a letter to your MP asking why aren’t previous sales data available to the public like in the US. Are we communist or free market? 😉

mac
Guest
mac
@McLovin: @BC Bred: Well, you’re a bit late. All the energy for explanations ran out in 2009. But here’s my take. The new listings are all the listings tallied up for the day. The sales are all the sales that sold during the day. Price changes are people changing their prices up or down. It’s just a way of taking the temperature of the market on a daily basis. Usually at this time of year, the sales list ratio (that’s the number of sales divided by the number of new listings) is high. In the ol’ days when the market was hot, hot, hot mid may would see sales list ratios of, say, 65% to 115%. Today it’s unbelievably low: 31%. It’s kinda shocking how low. Try not to read anything too much into the daily numbers. It’s best to… Read more »
Ravishing Rick
Member
Ravishing Rick

Cut the music!

If we hit 19k of inventory I’m going to visit some condo showrooms in my birthday suit and say, “What’s the matter, never seen 19″ of inventory before”.

Shut up Vancouver, you fat, out of shape, sorry excuse for a world class city. I’ll be drinking beer in Whalley when you’re ready to come back to me.

Hit the music!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Re: “This bunker just went from $989k to $899k.”
Wasn’t it initially at 1.2 million?

yvr2zrh
Member
#66 / #68 and #69. A few thoughts. It will be tough to get MOI to get over 10 before September. On June 30, we typically have a lot of expiries followed by a slow summer. The big issue is September when people start to list again. If sales don’t materialize then, we will exceed 10 and maybe hit 12. On the sale to list ratio. This is one thing I’m not so sure we can look at too closely any more. Now – I am not going to argue that things are great (because they are not) but what I can see happening is that the worse things get, the more realtors play silly games like doing a termination and relist in order to do a price change. It’s like somehow they think that a buyer will walk in… Read more »
McLovin
Guest
McLovin

Crashcow #55

NICE!

ReadyToPop
Guest
ReadyToPop
Documents dealing with China’s new status as a direct bidder again demonstrate the Treasury’s desire for secrecy — in terms of Wall Street and its new direct bidding customer. To safeguard against hackers, Treasury officials upgraded the system that allows China to access the bidding process. Then they discussed ways to deflect questions from Wall Street traders that would arise once the auction results began revealing the undeniable presence of a foreign direct bidder. “Most hold the view that foreign accounts only submit ‘indirect bids’ through primary dealers. This will likely cause significant chatter on the street and many questions will likely come our way,” wrote one government official in an email viewed by Reuters. In the email, the official suggested providing basic, general answers to questions about who can bid in Treasury actions. “For questions more extensive or probing… Read more »
VHB
Member
VHB

We are on pace for a bit over 7000 new listings. Not guaranteed to make it, but should be close. I have new listings for eavery month going back to 2001. Here are the top 10.

top ten new listing months since 2001:

1. April 2010   7648
2. May 2008   7390
3. July 2008   7104
4. May 2012   7029 (projected)
5. May 2010   7014
6. April 2008   7010
7. March 2010   7004
8. March 2011   6797
9. June 2008   6546
10. May 2004   6410
Makaya
Member
Makaya

Somebody posted this on Garth’s blog:

May 22, 2012
Richmond, BC

New Listings: 51
Price Reductions: 41
Sold: 16

VHB
Member
VHB
@Romeo Jordan: Given current trends, I don’t think that 2K sales and 20K inventory is an unlikely target for July/August. That’s a 10 MoI. I agree that MoI>10 is where the stuff starts hitting the fan. My price projection model has monthly appreciation hitting -1.0% just before MoI=10. It’s clearly going to be weak for the rest of the year even if sales pick up, with this much inventory to burn through. If sales don’t pick up, then. . . . The interesting thing is 2013. Just for fun say that a) China bubble in full burst so that not only do we not have new HAM arriving, but old HAM starts to sell b) new OSFI rules start biting; CMHC balance sheet limit bites; banks tighten credit c) 5-yr bond rate starts to climb. d) we start 2013 with… Read more »