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Gandalf
Guest
Gandalf

The Telus gardens hype feels a lot like the parties they had in Miami just before the bottom fell out? They had champagne, entertainment, limos, etc. at many of their openings? It’s just another sign!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Patiently Waiting: ….So I guess the private backyard is a relic of the past….

WTF is wrong with people in this city; a suggestion living in someone’s backyard is a desirable lifestyle and it’s taken seriously? This city makes me puke!

Patient
Guest
Patient

#110Arthur

Ben at The Economic Analyst posted a few articles on consumer sentiment and it’s influence on asset bubbles. Your lawn sign idea just might work…Rennie’s “Everything Is Going To Be Alright” has worked for him…for now.

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/more-insight-mass-psychology-driving-canadas-real-estate-obsession

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/making-bubble-part-1-pinch-thisa-dash

Anon
Guest
Anon

Revisionist history is nothing new, but at least now we have the internet to document the past before it’s sanitized at the whims of future political expediencies.

Bailing in BC
Member

@Devore:

I’m currently re-reading “1984”. This smells very “Orwellian” to me. In the book the past is constantly being rewritten so that the establishment always looks like it predicted the current outcomes.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

Ease the path to ownership? Oh FFS, we’ve had a 16-lane SUPERHIGHWAY.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Laneway+eases+path+ownership/6561891/story.html

So I guess the private backyard is a relic of the past.

real_professional
Member
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Arthur Fonzarelli: Unfortunately most of them don’t watch CBC.

Yes it’s extremely sad. People watch Global TV for today’s news, traffic and real estate tips.

jesse
Member

@Vulture Fun: Hey whatever gets them through the night. A primal protection mechanism is ignoring reality when it’s too painful to contemplate. Don’t take it personally.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Devore

Sherry Cooper had a house to sell. Now it is done, so she can change side.

Vulture Fun
Guest
Vulture Fun

@jjss: Awesome chart, JJSS.

Vulture Fun
Guest
Vulture Fun

One thing’s for sure: all those MILs and BILs and colleages will never remember that you were the one warning about this for the past five years. It sickens me to see the meat puppets on TV imply they were warning of this all along. Whatever. I’m just grateful for the community I find here. I agree with most of the points made, but I think RE is a religion in Van, and conversions take time. For many, it’s simply impossible for them to hear this information. They’re not ready. It’s as if they’re saying “la la la la la” with their hands over their ears. It will take more than a few doomy articles in the paper or news segments on TV. Had a guy at work drag out the ol’ “throwing your money away” comment because I rent.… Read more »

jjss
Guest
jjss
VHB
Member
VHB
May-2012			
Total days	22		
Days elapsed so far	3		
Weekends / holidays	0		
Days missing	0		
Days remaining	19		
7 Day Moving Average: Sales	134		
7 Day Moving Average: Listings	322		
SALES			
Sales so far	450		
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	2542		
Projected month end total	2992	+/-	567
NEW LISTINGS			
Listings so far	1064		
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	6114		
Projected month end total	7178	+/-	990
Sell-list so far	42.3%		
Projected month-end sell-list	41.7%		
MONTHS OF INVENTORY			
Inventory as of May 3, 2012	17400		
MoI at this sales pace	5.82		
Arthur Fonzarelli
Guest
Arthur Fonzarelli

Glad we didn’t lose that much inventory at end of month and she’s back up. Can’t wait to see the chart. I’ve wanted to ask Garth about how much and to what proportions sentiment can maintain a dominant influence on a market. Overriding fundamentals. Against all logic. Just because people think it. In this insular genetic larvae dish of Vancouver’s oblivious and ever-horny RE pumpers I sometimes wonder. But you do see people scrimping and buying these shitty little shacks and taking on roommates and living like hobos with $3K per month payments (variable, now motherfucker). They treat 30 minutes away from downtown Van as if it were 30 minutes from downtown London or Tokyo. We’re a great city, but we’re not at that scale, and we’re not Swedish. Quite. So anyways I don’t post these questions to Garth because… Read more »

The Leak
Guest
The Leak

Well, I believe it is safe to say the “erosion” is in full swing. There won’t be any more run-ups for quit some time.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Devore: ….the only thing widely predicted for some time was that “it always goes up”, “it’s different here”, “new normal”, “best investment you can make” and “buy now or buy never”. …

You forgot: “Cam Good took a dump here”

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@paulb.: Inventory up 157 from yesterday… I call it a day 🙂

Bear Patrol
Guest
Bear Patrol

One hundred and twenty-one. Oh my not good season for leveraged investors. Other shoe has yet to drop and it’s big clown shoe fit only for a King — you know which one.

Trust me on this.

gordholio
Member

Now *that’s* funny. PaulB’s numbers have been up about 25 minutes and he already has 34 “ups.”

‘Tis truly a good time to be a bear. Roar!

paulb.
Guest
paulb.

New Listings 339
Price Changes 159
Sold Listings 121
TI:17400

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

paulboenisch@gmail.com

Devore
Member
Devore

@Anonymous: It’s the same pattern we’ve seen in the US. Things were “a little” overheated, prices will pull back “a little bit”. On each leg down we’ll be told about the improving economic outlook and what a good time to buy it is, and oh look at all these great real estate deals to be had!

We have Sherry Cooper, who just a month ago was gungho on household debt, because it was supported by rising household net worth (read: rising real estate prices), now telling us household debt is very worrying, and “too much reliance on housing appreciation for wealth accumulation and retirement security is very dangerous”. She’s telling us this with such confidence and cadence as if she’s been warning us for years, complete with the wrinkled forehead and a wagging finger.

The jockeying for position and spin begins.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@DEVORE

Isn’t the shift characteristic of a receding tide?
Most people do not want to feel they were wrong.

What I find funny now is political correctness: you cannot claim in public you would be happy to see a return to normal because:
1) all these poor “families” who will be underwater (as if families could still afford Vancouver prices)
2) it will destroy the economy and everyone will be hit

Of course, do not pronounce the word CRASH… hughghghg…. “back to normal” is already too vulgar.

So after collective insanity, people are creating a narrative of doom and back luck…

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

@spectrum
My friend works in construction and he claims he would be VERY careful before buying anything built in the last six years. He noticed standards have gone down a lot. He mentioned wood quality and building under the rain without tarp, then cover with dry wall on wet wood.

yvr2zrh
Member

Forecast for the month based on current sales trends. Sales – 2880 Listings – 6524 Sale / List 44% May was the month that the 2008 started to go off a cliff. Listings exploded while sales languished. There was no talk of a financial crisis yet – but the market gave us early signs. We may trend such that May 2012 is better than 2008 but we will have to see how this month plays out. If we go below 2008 in 2012, I think the trend towards a problem in the fall is well in place and we may start to see similar price drops that occurred in that year. My modelling is showing a cross-over of the 2008/2012 inventory levels at the End of the July after which we will follow the 2008 numbers until October. After this… Read more »