Yes, you heard that correctly.
The word “bubble” was used in a discussion on a national news broadcast.
The CBC discusses the Canadian housing bubble with four economists and gets a fairly unanimous agreement: The Canadian housing market is overpriced and bubbly in many areas.
video embedded below:
The Telus gardens hype feels a lot like the parties they had in Miami just before the bottom fell out? They had champagne, entertainment, limos, etc. at many of their openings? It’s just another sign!
@Patiently Waiting: ….So I guess the private backyard is a relic of the past….
WTF is wrong with people in this city; a suggestion living in someone’s backyard is a desirable lifestyle and it’s taken seriously? This city makes me puke!
#110Arthur
Ben at The Economic Analyst posted a few articles on consumer sentiment and it’s influence on asset bubbles. Your lawn sign idea just might work…Rennie’s “Everything Is Going To Be Alright” has worked for him…for now.
http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/making-bubble-part-1-pinch-thisa-dash
Revisionist history is nothing new, but at least now we have the internet to document the past before it’s sanitized at the whims of future political expediencies.
@Devore:
I’m currently re-reading “1984”. This smells very “Orwellian” to me. In the book the past is constantly being rewritten so that the establishment always looks like it predicted the current outcomes.
Ease the path to ownership? Oh FFS, we’ve had a 16-lane SUPERHIGHWAY.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Laneway+eases+path+ownership/6561891/story.html
So I guess the private backyard is a relic of the past.
That sentiment chart is from the following report: http://www.pacificapartners.com/blog/2012/03/15/canadian-housing-bubble-chart-book/
@Arthur Fonzarelli: Unfortunately most of them don’t watch CBC.
Yes it’s extremely sad. People watch Global TV for today’s news, traffic and real estate tips.
@Vulture Fun: Hey whatever gets them through the night. A primal protection mechanism is ignoring reality when it’s too painful to contemplate. Don’t take it personally.
@Devore
Sherry Cooper had a house to sell. Now it is done, so she can change side.
@jjss: Awesome chart, JJSS.
One thing’s for sure: all those MILs and BILs and colleages will never remember that you were the one warning about this for the past five years. It sickens me to see the meat puppets on TV imply they were warning of this all along. Whatever. I’m just grateful for the community I find here. I agree with most of the points made, but I think RE is a religion in Van, and conversions take time. For many, it’s simply impossible for them to hear this information. They’re not ready. It’s as if they’re saying “la la la la la” with their hands over their ears. It will take more than a few doomy articles in the paper or news segments on TV. Had a guy at work drag out the ol’ “throwing your money away” comment because I rent.… Read more »
An interesting chart …
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/3/19/saupload_Canadian-Housing-Bubble.png
May-2012 Total days 22 Days elapsed so far 3 Weekends / holidays 0 Days missing 0 Days remaining 19 7 Day Moving Average: Sales 134 7 Day Moving Average: Listings 322 SALES Sales so far 450 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 2542 Projected month end total 2992 +/- 567 NEW LISTINGS Listings so far 1064 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 6114 Projected month end total 7178 +/- 990 Sell-list so far 42.3% Projected month-end sell-list 41.7% MONTHS OF INVENTORY Inventory as of May 3, 2012 17400 MoI at this sales pace 5.82
Glad we didn’t lose that much inventory at end of month and she’s back up. Can’t wait to see the chart. I’ve wanted to ask Garth about how much and to what proportions sentiment can maintain a dominant influence on a market. Overriding fundamentals. Against all logic. Just because people think it. In this insular genetic larvae dish of Vancouver’s oblivious and ever-horny RE pumpers I sometimes wonder. But you do see people scrimping and buying these shitty little shacks and taking on roommates and living like hobos with $3K per month payments (variable, now motherfucker). They treat 30 minutes away from downtown Van as if it were 30 minutes from downtown London or Tokyo. We’re a great city, but we’re not at that scale, and we’re not Swedish. Quite. So anyways I don’t post these questions to Garth because… Read more »
Well, I believe it is safe to say the “erosion” is in full swing. There won’t be any more run-ups for quit some time.
@Devore: ….the only thing widely predicted for some time was that “it always goes up”, “it’s different here”, “new normal”, “best investment you can make” and “buy now or buy never”. …
You forgot: “Cam Good took a dump here”
@paulb.: Inventory up 157 from yesterday… I call it a day 🙂
One hundred and twenty-one. Oh my not good season for leveraged investors. Other shoe has yet to drop and it’s big clown shoe fit only for a King — you know which one.
Trust me on this.
Now *that’s* funny. PaulB’s numbers have been up about 25 minutes and he already has 34 “ups.”
‘Tis truly a good time to be a bear. Roar!
New Listings 339
Price Changes 159
Sold Listings 121
TI:17400
@Anonymous: It’s the same pattern we’ve seen in the US. Things were “a little” overheated, prices will pull back “a little bit”. On each leg down we’ll be told about the improving economic outlook and what a good time to buy it is, and oh look at all these great real estate deals to be had!
We have Sherry Cooper, who just a month ago was gungho on household debt, because it was supported by rising household net worth (read: rising real estate prices), now telling us household debt is very worrying, and “too much reliance on housing appreciation for wealth accumulation and retirement security is very dangerous”. She’s telling us this with such confidence and cadence as if she’s been warning us for years, complete with the wrinkled forehead and a wagging finger.
The jockeying for position and spin begins.
@DEVORE
Isn’t the shift characteristic of a receding tide?
Most people do not want to feel they were wrong.
What I find funny now is political correctness: you cannot claim in public you would be happy to see a return to normal because:
1) all these poor “families” who will be underwater (as if families could still afford Vancouver prices)
2) it will destroy the economy and everyone will be hit
Of course, do not pronounce the word CRASH… hughghghg…. “back to normal” is already too vulgar.
So after collective insanity, people are creating a narrative of doom and back luck…
@spectrum
My friend works in construction and he claims he would be VERY careful before buying anything built in the last six years. He noticed standards have gone down a lot. He mentioned wood quality and building under the rain without tarp, then cover with dry wall on wet wood.
Forecast for the month based on current sales trends. Sales – 2880 Listings – 6524 Sale / List 44% May was the month that the 2008 started to go off a cliff. Listings exploded while sales languished. There was no talk of a financial crisis yet – but the market gave us early signs. We may trend such that May 2012 is better than 2008 but we will have to see how this month plays out. If we go below 2008 in 2012, I think the trend towards a problem in the fall is well in place and we may start to see similar price drops that occurred in that year. My modelling is showing a cross-over of the 2008/2012 inventory levels at the End of the July after which we will follow the 2008 numbers until October. After this… Read more »
