CMHC gets a bit weird

Here’s a couple of recent stories about Canada’s Housing Agency:  First off there’s the news that the government seems to be trying to figure out how to distance themselves from it, maybe by selling it off:

Anyone trying to understand the concern over a potential housing bubble in Canada need look no further than the debate among government officials over whether to exit the mortgage insurance business.

The board of Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. considered selling the home loan insurer last year, according to former Chairman Dino Chiesa, who’s term ended in March. CMHC, set up in 1946 to promote home ownership, also studied the sale of Australia’s government-owned insurer and presented the findings to the Bank of Canada, according to documents released to Bloomberg News under Canada’s Access to Information Act.

Here’s the full article.

But of course the CMHC is also saying they see ‘no sign of a market bubble’.

While the report did not make specific reference to the government’s changes in the oversight of CMHC, it did offer what could be characterized an strong validation of its role and operations.

“CMHC follows prudential regulations as set out by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, with CMHC maintaining more than twice the minimum capital required by OSFI,” it said. “As a result, CMHC is well positioned to weather possible severe economic scenarios.”

The report also highlighted the important role CMHC plays in the housing market, which it said accounted for 20%, or $346-billion, of Canada’s gross domestic product last year. It pointed out the agency “manages its mortgage loan insurance and securitization guarantee operations using sound business practices that ensure commercial viability without having to rely on the government of Canada for support.”

Here’s that article.


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I agree most people would have no idea about when the land title office is busy, or of all the other goofy things that can go wrong.

But I based this suggestion on working in a real estate office and experiencing delays. Now you have movers and excited buyers waiting, the sellers refusing to allow anybody in the house until the title has transferred and they have their money. It is 5pm on Friday or at the end of the month and it is a mess. The lawyer left the papers in his car and his car got stolen, or the realtor needs one more signature from across the country and that person went camping to get away from it all.

Good planning makes people happy, but Murphy’s Law wins sometimes.


@Romeo Jordan: … But you won’t read about it in the Vancouver Sun rag until the YoY numbers turn negative this summer. ….

I don’t think you’ll read it in the Vancouver Spun ever! They’ve hitched their horse to the RE wagon and they’re going to go down screaming the typical pumping garbage. And when they’re finally broke and gone, it’ll be Vancouver’s finest day.

Not A Wingman
Romeo Jordan

The machine is trying to back off the bubble rhetoric, the slaves are getting scared too quickly. They’ve got to draw this out for a while longer yet, or it will seem too obvious.

I don’t think we’ll see 20,000 listings until late June, shit is going to start stinking badly by then. But you won’t read about it in the Vancouver Sun rag until the YoY numbers turn negative this summer.


@Guy Smiley:

That should be “English sucks.”

Just saying.

Guy Smiley

@Bull! Bull! Bull!: “But not everyone prescribes to your theories”

And go back to school, your command of english sucks.

Total days	22		
Days elapsed so far	7		
Weekends / holidays	2		
Days missing	0		
Days remaining	15		
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	131		
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	346		
Sales so far	983		
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1962		
Projected month end total	2945	+/-	706
Listings so far	2456		
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	5193		
Projected month end total	7649	+/-	175
Sell-list so far	40.0%		
Projected month-end sell-list	38.5%		
Inventory as of May 9, 2012	17917		
MoI at this sales pace	6.08		

@camper: I don’t think people pick closing dates based on how busy they think the land title office will be.


Another good inventory gain.

18K party tomorrow night.

19K party later this month

20K party early June

Bulls thanks for coming back it was getting a little boring without idiotic comments.


@Bull! Bull! Bull!:

Dude, why don’t you get some professional help or just see your doctor. Traditional medicine doesn’t necessarily help in your case.


@Bull! Bull! Bull!: “But not everyone prescribes to your theories” I think that’s beside the point, it is unlikely a blog can convince everyone that high prices and poor earnings are the real problem, the goal is to convince enough people of the root cause that future policies can be more easily put in place to prevent another recurrence of speculative excesses. Pastrick’s comments are surprising in that so little focus is put on the real estate sector’s earnings and the lessons from other jurisdictions are there for the picking, yet instead we get that things will be fine unless some external event pulls the rug from under the market. It’s grade-school level analysis and worse simply bass-ackwards. Never mind a slowdown in Europe or China or both will do relatively little to economic growth and house price drops in… Read more »

Bull! Bull! Bull!

@Firkin: “When house prices are too high and not supported by fundamentals they will inevitably fall. Many people will blame any external factor they can, but the source of the problem is simple: prices too high.”

That’s fine. But not everyone prescribes to your theories. So if their there is significant global shock they will see that as the reason. You can’t create a double blind experiment when it comes to these things, so people have to use their judgement. If you are right and the solution to high prices is high prices, then hopefully people will be open minded to rational conversation and not just censor you.

I wonder how bears can stick their fingers in their ears and press the down vote button at the same time.


Regarding which days of the week have more or less sales closing. Realtors may avoid Fridays in the event that potential problems arise – for instance – at the land title office,concerning the condition of the property, with signatures or lawyers. If that is the case, then the buyers will not have access until the problem is ironed out in the next few business days which are after the weekend. Also, if the buyers want to start moving on Friday they may close a few days earlier and have their final inspection of the property. Sometimes the land title office is overwhelmed on popular days such as the last day of the month and the closing date is chosen to avoid heavy volume (potential glitches)in the system.


@Bull! Bull! Bull!: Speaking of reading comprehension, I believe the original point was this:

When house prices are too high and not supported by fundamentals they will inevitably fall. Many people will blame any external factor they can, but the source of the problem is simple: prices too high.


Hey the bullsh!tters are back! Whatsamatter guys, open house slow?



“Actually, we don’t usually say it in the Spring. ”

Check the archives. Last year it was the March 18th CMHC changes, the year before that it was the post-Olympics.


Shot down! That was a slam dunk! Called the bears out for their selective memory….

Bull! Bull! Bull!

@dosa: “crash in China”

You get a big fucking red F for grade 9 reading comprehension. *rolls eyes*


@Bull! Bull! Bull!

Helmut Pastrick also acknowledged that, should sales trend down steadily, it is very likely that prices will go down.

“If we see a steady decline on sales over the next three to six months, then one would expect prices to fall, to soften,” Pastrick told the Straight in a phone interview.

 Bouncy real-estate sales expected in Vancouver


New Listings 337
Price Changes 145
Sold Listings 183

Tick Tock

Me thinks todays gonna be a BIG listing day!! No fingers crossed needed!


@Bull! Bull! Bull!: Sorry, but what a fucking idiot. I don’t see him or anyone else working for a credit union running out and buying houses anywhere in lower mainland let alone Vancouver. Put your money where your mouth is asshole.



“Actually, we don’t usually say it in the Spring. ”

Check the archives. Last year it was the March 18th CMHC changes, the year before that it was the post-Olympics.


@Bull! Bull! Bull!: Yes, because everyone know that if oil prices go up or down that causes house prices to crash :eyeroll:


As for jinxes, anyone who believes in them is a moron.

Including Canada’s hockey brass by planting the loonie in the ice wtf

Bull! Bull! Bull!


“I’ll also bet you that if there is an oil price bust – which is a likely outcome of a crash in China – they will blame a RE price decline on that.”

No shit. That’s a “global event” and his thesis. You get a gold star for grade 8 reading comprehension.