Disappearing ghost towns in the media

This is odd.  The Globe and Mail published an article about the condo boom titled “How condo boom threatens a ghost city phenomenon” and included the following alarming section:

“CMHC estimates that roughly 25 per cent of condominiums in the Greater Toronto Area are sold but sitting vacant — shades of Miami at the height of its collapsed condo bubble in 2007. Other analysts say the 25 per cent figure may be too low.

“This is the ghost city phenomenon,” Mr. Holt said.

Condo developers in Eastern cities such as Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa, appear to be rushing to sell and build units before interest rates start to climb, and the market crashes.”

But if you visit that link you’ll no longer find that text and the headline has been changed to “Housing starts shoot higher on back of condo boom” (although as of this writing the URL still shows the original title).  Why the dramatic change in tone?

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Village Whisperer
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Village Whisperer

Curiously… you can still find the original article on CTV’s website here:

http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/business/article2426038.html

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow

Speaking of new developments. I noticed a huge number of new condos at Kerr/Marine (River Walk). I don’t think these all sold out-anyone know when they will hit the market?

victoria
Member
victoria

I love how the writer says “Soft Landing” so not to panic people. There has never been a soft landing after a bubble – as one commenter said.

Hugh G Rection
Guest
Hugh G Rection

Insane listing of the day….or maybe not, you tell me:

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?&cul=1&propertyId=11899383&pidKey=-1654949221

$900k for the ground level/basement unit of this near main tri-plex.

they are including the garage in square footage and when done so, it works out to $720/sqft

excluding the garage the asking price is $852/sqft.

there is a room in the unit that you have to access via the garage.

This house sold at the 2008 peak for $650k.

On what planet is the listing agent living?

jesse
Member

If they had their own VHB/mohican/fish/paulb./vreaa the question regarding the severity of a the condo boom in Toronto would be answered with more insight.

Say what you want about Vancouver but the blogosphere, and its real estate board to be fair, is more on the ball regarding reporting what’s going on.

Apocarypse Mao
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Apocarypse Mao

@#2 pricedoutfornow

If they’re being built then they already hit the market as pre-sales some time ago. Developers would need to sell something like 80% of pre-sales to get financing to build. Question is, how many were purchased by end users?

Meh
Guest
Meh

@Hugh G Rection: It used to be that living in a basement apartment off Main meant you were a methhead on welfare. Is that still the case?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Hugh G Rection: “$900k for the ground level/basement unit of this near main tri-plex.”

It is closer to Cambie than Main in the City Hall neighborhood. It is actually quite a nice area with a short walk to Cambie.

But 900K is obviously insane unless you get the whole triplex.

/dev/null
Member
/dev/null
Didn’t see this Rob McLister article linked yesterday, but maybe I missed it. Buying a home with just 5% down? Make sure you love it http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/home-buying/buying-a-home-with-just-5-down-make-sure-you-love-it/article2425135/ Many of these folks will then lock in a bargain-basement 10-year mortgage at 3.89 per cent, find a hip property for about $300,000 and move in. For these new happy home owners, life couldn’t be better. But what if, seemingly overnight, the unexpected happened and home prices dove 15 per cent? The mortgage balance of these young buyers would suddenly be more than their house is worth. If forced to sell now, they wouldn’t be able to break their mortgage unless they made up this shortfall from their own pocket. Their only choice is to ride out the real estate cycle – and hope it’s not a long ride. If the above scenario sounds… Read more »
southseacompany
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southseacompany
Roirepus
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Roirepus

http://tinyurl.com/7fkdzvu

I have to agree with their stance.

AG Sage
Member

Toronto condo prices still maintaining the Peak from Sept/Oct 2011

http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2012/05/toronto-condo-prices-peaked-in.html

Condos bought in September 2011 in the central city are down 17k in equity.

registered
Member
registered

10 southseacompany Says: “Another nice headline…”

From the linked article:

“says Derek Burleton, TD’s deputy chief economist…

“We have not seen the same explosion of prices that we saw in the late 1980s,”…”

He’s correct, the recent increases exceed those of the late Eighties by a roughly a third:

http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/ResidentialRealEstate/HousingPrices/housing-pri-toronto.pdf

Which academic institutes offer these Economic Marketing degrees?

b5baxter
Member

Weekly inventory graph update at: http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/inventory-graph/forum/topic/may-graphs/?#post-2394

The rate of inventory growth is picking up again. It looks similar to what we saw in 2008 and 2010. In both those years the growth slowed in the second half of May. Will that happen again?

Over the last month the average daily increase was:
57
At this rate we will reach 18,000 in 1 days (May-11-12)
At this rate we will reach 20,000 in 36 days (Jun-15-12)
and 25,000 by September-10-12

data junkie
Guest
data junkie

I know everyone had a good laugh yesterday at Helmut Pastrick from Credit 1 Central giving that ridiculously self-serving interview in the media yesterday about how there’s definitely no bubble in Vancouver. However, you guys missed the best part: not only is Pastrick biased due to his work as a bank economist, but his wife, Teresa Murphy, works for REBGV.

No problem there, I’m sure!

VultureBoy
Guest
VultureBoy

Bearish comments from Ian Watt.

“There is no incentive to buy a presale; they are totally overpriced….. What they release to the media is complete crap” Ian Watt

“Hey Vancouver Sun, TELUS GARDEN DID NOT SELL OUT !!!”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-GaWa6YNbs&feature=youtu.be

offside
Guest
offside

Globe & Mail = Pravda

welcome to corporatist utopia comrades

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

Follow up on my yesterday post: houses moving in East Van.
Here is what makes them move:

V931169
Original Price $839,000
Sale Price $750,000

V935618
original price: $799 000
sold at $770 000

V923489
original: $698,000
Sale Price $646,500

V940454
Original Price $702,000
Sale Price $635,000

Original Price $702,000
Sale Price $635,000
sold: $646,500

Even in this “affordable” (?) segment, not much bidding wars I guess…

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Hugh G Rection: ….On what planet is the listing agent living? ….

Why, Planet Vancouver, of course! A planet right next to Uranus.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

It’s a slow market. But inventories aren’t outrageous, and they aren’t growing at an outrageous rate. Prices haven’t budged. This happens every spring.

Why do you people think “it’s different this time”?

Looking forward to the down votes from the sheeple who aren’t interested in debate.

Mick Murphy
Guest
Mick Murphy

More Anecdotes From China on Plastics, Metalworking, Unused Roads, Vacant Housing

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/05/more-anecdotes-from-china-on-plastics.html

offside
Guest
offside

Bull! Bull! Bull! Says: “But inventories aren’t outrageous”

they are the highest in the decade for crying out loud! what do you want to debate? timing of the crash?

Best place on meth
Member
Active Member
Best place on meth

@Bull! Bull! Bull!:

I voted you back up to give you the benefit of the doubt.

If you’re sincerely interested in debate then tell me this – when was the last time inventory was at 18,000 in May?

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
Idiots
Guest
Idiots

@ Bull! Bull! Bull!

I also voted you up.

Please answer the questions at hand.

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