Canada, debt, foreclosure, hype, supply

Disappearing ghost towns in the media

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106 Comments

This is odd.  The Globe and Mail published an article about the condo boom titled “How condo boom threatens a ghost city phenomenon” and included the following alarming section:

“CMHC estimates that roughly 25 per cent of condominiums in the Greater Toronto Area are sold but sitting vacant — shades of Miami at the height of its collapsed condo bubble in 2007. Other analysts say the 25 per cent figure may be too low.

“This is the ghost city phenomenon,” Mr. Holt said.

Condo developers in Eastern cities such as Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa, appear to be rushing to sell and build units before interest rates start to climb, and the market crashes.”

But if you visit that link you’ll no longer find that text and the headline has been changed to “Housing starts shoot higher on back of condo boom” (although as of this writing the URL still shows the original title).  Why the dramatic change in tone?

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McLovin

I am not here to defend the actions of every CEO or company that has “wronged” a reader of this blog.

If people are stupid enough to think that the CEO of a $500 billion company can control whether a captain on one of 150 ships they own is drinking on duty then they deserve what they get. If this is not you then ignore this post. If it is then put on your tinfoil hat.

We are here to talk about Real Estate. Vancouver Real Estate for that matter so lets try our best to stick to it.

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MM

Why the dramatic change in tone?

“Frankly, I’d like to see the rhetoric come down a little bit.”

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vreaa

frank ->
That remuneration makes no sense.
They are bureaucrats, and shouldn’t b paid more than, what?… 200K, being generous.

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frank

Who would think you could make so much running a small power company. From $1-2.5 Big ones.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2012/05/10/ns-power-execs-pay-rises.html

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VHB

I score us at 9 straight days of 300+ listings. In 2010 we once did 8 straight days. Didn’t even get to 8 days in 2011. So, listings is really rolling right now.

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Anonymous

@Tony: Prices did decrease in 2010

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Anonymous

@Tony: Go to Housing Analysis, look at the charts and you will see that nothing, including inventory levels are the same as they have been in seven years let alone 2010. We are different only not in the way the great unwashed has considered us to be these last number of years

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rp1

#93 @Tony: “I dont get it. we are at the same level of inventory as 2010, when prices did not decrease, yet we are excited about this? What am I missing?”

Sales?

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jesse

@Tony: The major differences in my view are:
– Sales are lower.
– Population growth has slowed, which is no coincidence.
– Certain types of loans are now more difficult to obtain.
– Prices are higher.

These are contributing to a different dynamic from 2010. There are a few items that loom:
– Further loan tightening in 2013.
– China’s investment boom is approaching an abrupt stop in the next few years. That will start having effects well before the implosion hits the MSM.
– Completions are set to rise the second half of the year.

A lot more of my indicators are red in 2012.

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Anonymous

@Yalie:

Why this unit is so cheap? only 66000?
#2) Address:# 507 5911 MINORU BV, Brighouse, Richmond

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xyz

@Alan:
Maybe there are a few extra months in his 😀

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Anonymous

@Devore:

6 months of inventory. Not exactly a buyers market.

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Anonymous

@Tony: Growth is good. It will be interesting to see if inventory keeps going like it did in 2008 or taper off early like it did in 2010. What are you betting on?

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Tony

I dont get it. we are at the same level of inventory as 2010, when prices did not decrease, yet we are excited about this? What am I missing?

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Alan

@xyz: Maybe that’s the problem, he’s using a calendar to do hi calculations instead of a calculator 😀

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mac

@sjeet: It’s not that people are smart or stupid. They need the stories and publicity (links etc) to make it’s way to the buyer, which is in China. They can’t see the nuances from so far away. Just rely on family stories, what the realtor tells them and what they can click on the news.

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good-format

Copied from PaulB’s number
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

 Date      Listing  Price(+-)  Sold   Inv     Inv(+-)  S/L(%)
Apr-30       316     179       124   17,530     75     39.2

May-01       354     144       179   17,122            50.6
May-02       371     131       150   17,243    121     40.4
May-03       339     159       121   17,400    157     35.7
May-04       337     120        77   17,592    192     22.8

May-07       353     177        90   17,727    135     25.5
May-08       365     157       183   17,823     96     50.1
May-09       337     145       183   17,917     94     54.3
May-10       318     129       115   18,073    156     36.2

Total-Cur  2,774  1,162      1,098             951     39.6
5 day-avg    342    146        130             135     37.9
Total-Est  7,562  3,200      2,912   19,957  3,374     38.5
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xyz

er Calendar=Calculator

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xyz

Realtor Math:

Since we are likely to soon be homeless we thought we would check out a nearby Townhouse listed for $359,000, more for morbid curiosity than anything else.

As we were leaving the Realtor made sure to tell us Down payment is 18K and the monthly is $1400…

Now I’m not sure what kind of calendar he is using but if I don’t factor in taxes, closing costs etc I get $1910 a month at Royals 5 year rate…

Basically they’d have to drop their price by more than 100K to get us to $1400 a month??

How do people like this have jobs??

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Ravishing Rick

Cut the music!

18k … this is like the Wilt Chamberlain of inventories.

Hit the music!

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obvious

@Devore: cut a chunk. a huge chunk. you’d still have made a mint.

don’t fool yourself into thinking otherwise. there is too much of that going on these days.

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crashcow

18K party – everyone and their huzzbah invited!

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Devore

@obvious:

If you had listened to the Vancouver Sun you would have made a lot of money and sold at the top.

Because with months of inventory, it’s so easy to sell at the top without cutting off a nice chunk from your asking price.

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Anonymous

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Best place on meth

+156 to inventory, happy 18K!

But I’m sure there’s nothing different about this year.

Nope, nothing at all.

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