Friday Free-for-all!

It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for the free-for-all, or regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion thread. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Vancouver housing slows to crawl
Telus Garden sold out?
Maybe not so sold out. 
Inventory growth slows (chart)
Metro van sees sharp sales drop
REBGV Press Release (PDF)
Agent grumpy about bubble talk
Housing bubble sentiment chart
1980’s all over again?
Senators grumpy with Carney
Housing market pumps GDP
Australia down 10%
China’s ‘epic’ property bubble

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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rp1
Guest
rp1

I liked this comment from the Globe: “”Bigest Pop On Earth”

george
Guest
george

“The political economy in Europe is such that the politicians chose to default on their spending obligations to their citizens in order to honor the pact with their financial creditors and so as time goes on, the politicians are being rejected.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hugh-hendry-europe-you-cant-make-how-bad-it

registered
Member
registered

“How the housing market is pumping up our GDP numbers”

Some railed about the obvious conclusion of this publicly available data for years. With the denial stage now behind, the next step for media is investigating why politicians skewed monetary policy in this direction for a generation.

registered
Member
registered

“Agent grumpy about bubble talk”

While my family and I often debate the social value brought by the Internet, we agree one lesson it teaches is some people operate at the mental level of parrots with large vocabularies. Reading Leah Bach’s ‘tough minded’ market opinion – ‘defense’, requiring some minimum level of data or logical construct, is too strong a word – made my head hurt. What’s her RET handle?

Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Guest
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs

Check this out from Globe and Mail’s blogger series. A couple in their 30s with a son is looking to buy a detached house with a yard in a neighbourhood in the Vancouver area with a sense of community and lots of kids — for 500k. The woman says, “the thrill of paying someone else’s mortgage is starting to wear thin and we are getting ready to take the plunge into home ownership.”

It’s painful to watch these people about to take the plunge into the stupidest decision of their lives. BTW, I don’t think what she’s talking about exists in Vancouver. I mean for 500k, you expect a detached house with a yard and a sense of community! I think you’ll have to move to Surrey and even there it might be a stretch.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/home-buying/in-vancouver-is-a-500000-fixer-upper-out-of-reach/article2412101/

Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Guest
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs

@fixie guy.

Exactly what I was thinking about Leah Bach’s commentary. It was full of cliches and quotable, ‘sound bit-able’, well-worded sentences that carry very little meaning when you think about them. It’s the art of making yourself sound smart to dumb readers. Most people are dumb enough to actually fall for it.

condo paradise
Guest
condo paradise

Gotta love it. Now this is how you market a property.

http://tinyurl.com/6serv3p

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow

@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs:

Interesting piece in the Globe. I did the math on this couple’s expected $450k mortgage, say 3% over 30 years. They would be paying nearly $1900/month in mortgage payments! Add property taxes, strata fees (maybe), repairs and maintenance, and you’re digging yourself into a big hole. My household income is similar to hers and we wouldn’t dream of paying $2000/month in either rent or mortgage (we’re pretty cheap). And for that price, I’m sure they could find a decent place to rent (not own). She’s dreaming if she thinks she can get a SFH in Vancouver for $500k! Try again in 5 years….

patriotz
Member

@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs:

The woman says, “the thrill of paying someone else’s mortgage is starting to wear thin..”

Well of course the point is that she isn’t paying someone else’s mortgage. If she was buying would be a sensible choice.

Perhaps she doesn’t get this now, but a quick run with a mortgage calculator or a visit to the bank should help.

It’s just staggering how people swallow these cliches without even a cursory look at the numbers.

Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Guest
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Mick Murphy
Guest
Mick Murphy

@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs:

>in a neighbourhood in the Vancouver area with a sense of community

i don’t understand what that means. i’ll just take a guess and assume it’s code for ‘whtie neighbourhood’. i’m not trying to be inflammatory.

looking at the racial make up of lower-mainland neighbourhoods, it’s obvious that birds of a feather flock together. of course, you couldn’t say something like that in the g&m.

Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Guest
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
@Mick Murphy I don’t buy that at all. I don’t interpret “sense of community” as meaning “where the white people live”. First of all, you are assuming that Kristin herself is white. There is no information in what she wrote to indicate her race. She could be Chinese, Black, or Hawaiian. We don’t know. “Sense of community” to me means lots of people on the streets, lots of diversity, neighbours that know each other and talk to each other (because they’ve lived in the area a long time), kids that go to school together and play together in the street. Many of these real estate bear blogs have documented how the high cost of housing has degraded the sense of community in Vancouver. Many homes are bought as investments and sit empty. Long term renters are evicted for renovations so… Read more »
Makaya
Member
Makaya

The bubble talk in the mainstream media is in full swing!

Just this morning on the Globe:

– Does it make more sense to rent or buy? (from our friend Ben Rabidoux)

– Why you should beef up that down payment fund first (from Preet Banerjee)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/

These kind of articles are not gonna help the slow sales of the spring season!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Mick Murphy: …i don’t understand what that means. i’ll just take a guess and assume it’s code for ‘whtie neighbourhood’. i’m not trying to be inflammatory. ….

Maybe it just means in a neighborhood where all the houses aren’t empty. That rules out Dunbar.

DaMann
Member
DaMann
@Mick Murphy: “i don’t understand what that means. i’ll just take a guess and assume it’s code for ‘whtie neighbourhood’. i’m not trying to be inflammatory. looking at the racial make up of lower-mainland neighbourhoods, it’s obvious that birds of a feather flock together. of course, you couldn’t say something like that in the g&m.” F@$%^ that annoys the shit out of me. Vancouver does not mix. Look at any region or neighbourhood anywhere and it is predominantly one culture. Even if they meant it as “We want to live in white neighbourhood” So what? Does anyone bat an eye lash if someone says they want to live in a Chinese community or an Indian community? No, Say you want to live in an area that has cultural similarities to yours and it happens to be of European flavour, you… Read more »
Makaya
Member
Makaya
Meanwhile, in the US… (you know, that small country south of the border where Canadians use HELOC to buy investment properties there). The crashing US housing metro areas – Atlanta home values crash by 17 percent in last year and Las Vegas continues to move lower US home prices have once again made a post-bubble low in spite of all the artificial intervention and massive bailouts to financial institutions. The bottom line unfortunately is that US household incomes have been strained for well over a decade. You can slice it up by nominal or inflation adjusted data but household incomes have been moving in a negative direction during the 00s and continuing into this decade. Keep in mind there is a massive pipeline of problems still in the housing market with over 5.5 million mortgage holders in some stage of… Read more »
Mick Murphy
Guest
Mick Murphy

@DaMann:

>Say you want to live in an area that has cultural similarities to yours and it happens to be of European flavour, you are a hood wearing cross burning racist

i’m not sure why you are getting so upset. it seems that even on an anonymous blog, some have problems talking about these things.

i’ll mark you down as one of the people who think “sense of community” is code.

jesse
Member

@Makaya: Atlanta’s a great one for me. Atlanta has been cited by Demographia as a prime example of how to prevent housing bubbles: relax land use planning and that, so goes the argument, keeps prices from bubbling up and causing long term economic hardship. Now prices are down 17%. Yup, there wasn’t a bubble in Atlanta like in Las Vegas or Phoenix but there were still foreclosures up the ying yang. Maybe it was as simple as too much debt…

DaMann
Member
DaMann

@Mick Murphy:

Nice one! PC brigade in full force.
I’ve been to places in the Valley and believe me I have no desire to live in a “white community” if that’s what it entails. I just want to know one question. Why is it socially acceptable to say I want to live in a …… ( insert random culture that is not european) community but racist to say I want to live in a …. (insert random European culture). That’s all really.

Anyways back to housing. Those Atlanta numbers are scary. After a few years of a crash it is still plummeting down south. Makes you wonder how long the bleed will be here.

Mick Murphy
Guest
Mick Murphy

@DaMann:

> I just want to know one question. Why is it socially acceptable to say I want to live in a …… ( insert random culture that is not european) community but racist to say I want to live in a …. (insert random European culture).

hey, guy. believe me, i know how tough it’s to be a white man in canada 😉

but honestly, i don’t think one is socially acceptable when the other isn’t.

it’s going to be sunny this sunday, what do you say we go to the farmers market and forget about this whole thing? we can talk about coffee and how hot asian girls are.

patriotz
Member

@DaMann:
“Why is it… racist to say I want to live in a (insert random European culture).”

Actually European cultures can get away with it as long as they’re considered “ethnic”, e.g. Greek, Italian, Francophone.

As you say the only anglophone whites who really want to live in homogeneous neighbourhoods are the fundamentalist Christian type. The more cosmopolitan types would prefer a more mixed neighbourhood, sadly the it’s the minorities themselves who set themselves apart.

Fullfrontalabotomy
Member
Fullfrontalabotomy

Bug, meet ear.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/05/04/toronto-vancouver-housing.html

MSM coverage like this does a lot to change the psychology. This, I would argue, is secondary to the fundamentals of the market BUT, it makes those water cooler conversations move in the bear direction….

Just sayin…

Fabio
Guest
Fabio

Mick Murphy Says: “we can talk about coffee and how hot asian girls are.”

Asian girls.mmmm..the sole reason why I am not moving from Vancouve

Mick Murphy
Guest
Mick Murphy

@patriotz:

>The more cosmopolitan types would prefer a more mixed neighbourhood, sadly the it’s the minorities themselves who set themselves apart.

when you point the finger at someone else you have 3 pointing back at you.

the facts don’t really support you’re assertion. take kitsilano for example (see page 3):

http://www.vancouvereconomic.com/userfiles/kitsilano-neighbourhood.pdf

or the north shore, white rock, tsawwassen, west end, downtown. everyone wants to live amongst their own. whites included.

it’s easy to point out the faults of others, but first look in the mirror.

VHB
Member
VHB

VW SFH has recovered from end-of-month delists. Now sitting at 926; just 74 shy of the big 1K. the only other time this level of inventory happened in the last 5 years was in the Fall of 2008. At that time, VW SFH prices fell around 20-25%.

I think we will likely have an 18K party this month; maybe a 19K party too. But watching VW SFH hit 1K is party-worthy as well, as I see it. Can we handle that many parties in a month?

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